WW United -- GAME OVER

[Alan T]

I don't really like any of the choices that have been offered up for today myself. I agree with Chief about the Claphamsa vote. I don't really have a read on MartinD at all. I don't really see the same way as him about lathum or lerriuqs however. I guess out of the bunch of them, I'll likely end up voting for MartinD but I'm not really a big fan of the choices here. I'm even less of a big fan of the number of people hiding their vote elsewhere.

[Lathum]

When I'm picking out of a hat, basically, though, I am within my rights to just not want to deal with it.

so we are picking out of a hat, yet Clap and MartinD are poor candidates?

[Lathum]

It depends, but the answer is probably yes. If we lose and we have horrible ratings all over the place, I would definitely side with lynching tomorrow and just treat the soccer game as a sideshow because I would lack confidence in us being able to solve it in time. If we lose or tie but have good ratings in say 4 or more places, and the average rating seems to be around 50ish, I would be more inclined to go no lynch again.

IMO this is a poor strategy. The voting record IMO is more valuable than keeping one player around for a slight improvement.

[GoldenEagle]

I think the reason we need to lynch is because if we don't, then wolves are just going to hit us with a point deduction and we will be in the same situation tomorrow.

[Chief Rum]

How do you know this?

Because it's his opinion. ;) (note the "IMO")

Seriously, though, I subscribe to lerriuqs' stance that getting the points will likely be hard. We don't actually have the information, of course, to settle this right now, but we have to presume a win even at full strength is probably not going to be a gimme. By the time we get positional skill nailed down, we will have lost 5-6 players, and will barely be able to field a full 11. Then the wolves will start knocking us down 2 points, too.

Is it doable? I'm sure it is. But I see it as the less likely avenue of success, which is why I advocate for the lynch, and playing this more as straight WW.

[Chief Rum]

so we are picking out of a hat, yet Clap and MartinD are poor candidates?

Picking out of a hat between you and lerriuqs. Do you want me to vote for you? I'm good either way. I see both of you as better candidates than clap or Martin.

[GoldenEagle]

I think the reason we need to lynch is because if we don't, then wolves are just going to hit us with a point deduction and we will be in the same situation tomorrow.

Just to add to expand on my thoughts a bit:

If we vote no lynch:
1. The wolves can hit us with the two point deduction
2. If they do, we learn nothing about squad (or do we? would the match still be played?)

So we are looking at a 12 points instead of a 10 and we are in the same situation tomorrow as we are in today.

/out of character ;)

[Lathum]

Picking out of a hat between you and lerriuqs. Do you want me to vote for you? I'm good either way. I see both of you as better candidates than clap or Martin.

I really don't care if you vote for me.

In fact please do, it will be a great chance for me to show you how calm I can remain.

[Lathum]

anyone got a vote count?

[Chief Rum]

FWIW, I don't really think Lathum or lerriuqs are wolves, but right now, I don't think anyone is a wolf right now, based on what we have seen in thread. I just believe that the clap and Martin votes have been sorta railroaded through on specious reasoning. I think if clap wasn't constantly a Day One candidate or if Martin was here to defend himself, I wouldn't have a problem--after all, one Day One vote is about as good as another.

I picked Lathum and lerriuqs basically because I needed to vote for someone (as I believe the right way to go is the lynch), and I didn't like some of their approach to presenting their arguments for lynch in their debate with KWhit and JAG. I don't agree with KWhit and JAG, but I feel they argues more reasonably and fairly. As I value a rational and logical approach, I felt how Lathum and lerriuqs argue at some points was inconsistent with what we will need to win, so why not make one of them a candidate?

I certainly wouldn't advocate a run on either of them just on the basis of my vote, though. It's based on nearly as much of nothing as the clap and Martin votes. It is, after all, still an information-less Day One vote.

I might switch to GE, even. Wasn't too keen on him following me (although I'll admit I sorta encouraged it with my last line in my vote post).

[Lathum]

I picked Lathum and lerriuqs basically because I needed to vote for someone (as I believe the right way to go is the lynch), and I didn't like some of their approach to presenting their arguments for lynch in their debate with KWhit and JAG. I don't agree with KWhit and JAG, but I feel they argues more reasonably and fairly. As I value a rational and logical approach, I felt how Lathum and lerriuqs argue at some points was inconsistent with what we will need to win, so why not make one of them a candidate?
.

I just don't understand your logic here. You think we should lynch, lerriuqs and I are pro lynch, yet you think one of us should be lynched.

That's fine if you don't like the arguments we make or the logic we use, but it makes no sense to me to try and lynch someone on the same side of the argument as you are.

[Lathum]

unvote Clap
vote MArtinD

[KWhit]

Just to add to expand on my thoughts a bit:

If we vote no lynch:
1. The wolves can hit us with the two point deduction
2. If they do, we learn nothing about squad (or do we? would the match still be played?)

So we are looking at a 12 points instead of a 10 and we are in the same situation tomorrow as we are in today.

/out of character ;)

No, we wouldn't be in the same position, because we'd lose NOBODY and we'd have a freebie seer scan (and today's voting history).

And I believe the game would still be played.

[Telle]

Votes as of post #262:

5 - no lynch - KWhit (103), JAG (131), MartinD (133), DaddyTorgo (182), PurdueBrad (185)
6 - MartinD - Mia Ow (142), Schmidty (154), Telle (183), claphamsa (192), The Jackal (207), Lathum (262)
3 - claphamsa - LSG (156), Darth (159), lerriuqs (191)
2 - Lerriuqs - Chief Rum (242), GoldenEagle (245)

[GoldenEagle]

I might switch to GE, even. Wasn't too keen on him following me (although I'll admit I sorta encouraged it with my last line in my vote post).

Mate, you write a post detailing how we should not vote for Clap or MartinD. It is a good,well-timed argument. I read this and think, "this bloke knows what he is talking about. He may not be much of a footballer. But who is compared to me?"

So all of the sudden, I jump on the bandwagon of this lerriuqs character. I am not really sure who lerriuqs is, but the only person I really pay attention to on the team is myself.

It is like you don't want lerriuqs to get lynched. So what gives, mate? Are you trying to create some seperation from yourself and lerriuqs? Are you afraid that more votes will start piling on him (kinda of similar to way I pile up the goals, yea?)?

[Chief Rum]

I just don't understand your logic here. You think we should lynch, lerriuqs and I are pro lynch, yet you think one of us should be lynched.

That's fine if you don't like the arguments we make or the logic we use, but it makes no sense to me to try and lynch someone on the same side of the argument as you are.

You are confusing two entirely separate debates.

One is the lynch/no-lynch debate. I agree that lynching is the best way to go.

The other argument is, who is the best candidate for lynching? I came to determine that that is you and lerriuqs, as of right now, because we need rationality and logic, and I believe you both didn't display enough of either in your debate with KWhit and JAG, even if the stance you were defending is, IMO, correct.

I agree that we should lynch. That resolves debate one.

I believe you and lerriuqs are my primary candidates for lynch at this moment. That resolves debate two.

Completely unrelated debates.

[Lathum]

Fair enough.

You want me lynched then go for it. I look forward to you voting me after the deadline.

That is if we are both still alive

[Chief Rum]

Mate, you write a post detailing how we should not vote for Clap or MartinD. It is a good,well-timed argument. I read this and think, "this bloke knows what he is talking about. He may not be much of a footballer. But who is compared to me?"

So all of the sudden, I jump on the bandwagon of this lerriuqs character. I am not really sure who lerriuqs is, but the only person I really pay attention to on the team is myself.

It is like you don't want lerriuqs to get lynched. So what gives, mate? Are you trying to create some seperation from yourself and lerriuqs? Are you afraid that more votes will start piling on him (kinda of similar to way I pile up the goals, yea?)?

Now, that's fear mongering (that last paragraph)! You have outdone yourself, GE. :D

Seriously, I did suggest a follow up, so I'm not really going to hold ti against you. I would be uncomfortable, though, if a run developed on lerriuqs (or Lathum), because I don't know that they are wolves either, and I would certainly be at fault if they were lynched on my say so.

Day One votes suck. It's a fact. We got no information.

[Chief Rum]

Fair enough.

You want me lynched then go for it. I look forward to you voting me after the deadline.

That is if we are both still alive

No, I am just voting for you. That doesn't mean I want you lynched. It just means I want others lynched less than you or lerriuqs at this moment, pending more information becoming available.

As for that last, are you suggesting I won't be alive?

[Lathum]

No, I am just voting for you. That doesn't mean I want you lynched. It just means I want others lynched less than you or lerriuqs at this moment, pending more information becoming available.

As for that last, are you suggesting I won't be alive?

anything is possible, if I was a wolf you would be one of my top targets.

[lerriuqs]

You are confusing two entirely separate debates.

One is the lynch/no-lynch debate. I agree that lynching is the best way to go.

The other argument is, who is the best candidate for lynching? I came to determine that that is you and lerriuqs, as of right now, because we need rationality and logic, and I believe you both didn't display enough of either in your debate with KWhit and JAG, even if the stance you were defending is, IMO, correct.

I agree that we should lynch. That resolves debate one.

I believe you and lerriuqs are my primary candidates for lynch at this moment. That resolves debate two.

Completely unrelated debates.

So you think their rationale and logic is more sound even though you don't even believe with the belief that is fueling their position? Ie. That winning based on points is the best way to go...

Huh?

[JAG]

What part of IMO has you confused?

Sorry. What I was trying to get at (clumsily) is, we don't know how the game works so we're both in the same boat of trying to figure out optimal strategy without all the proper information.

Honestly, thinking about it some more...maybe it's better strategy to lynch on D1, find out what we can from the game, and if it looks possible to put together a winning team quickly, aim for a no lynch on D2. That way we have basically the same result (we only lynch once after two days), but if it turns out the game looks too hard to win, we haven't spent a day waiting for a game result. The downside is our odds are slightly worse numerically at finding a wolf today vs. tomorrow, not to mention I wonder if we can even muster support for a no lynch seeing how today has gone.

[Chief Rum]

So you think their rationale and logic is more sound even though you don't even believe with the belief that is fueling their position? Ie. That winning based on points is the best way to go...

Huh?

You're confusing the argument with the arguer.

I agree with your debate point.

But KWhit and JAG, logically, presented their arguments better, with no logical fallacies. I think they're wrong--but that doesn't mean they weren't logical and rational. Right and wrong has nothing to do with logical argumentation.

[Chief Rum]

anything is possible, if I was a wolf you would be one of my top targets.

So later on, if I am not attacked, I must be a wolf, right? Setting up that argument already? How Machiavellian.

[Alan T]

I'll vote lerriuqs. Feel free to follow me if you want.



Seriously, I did suggest a follow up, so I'm not really going to hold ti against you. I would be uncomfortable, though, if a run developed on lerriuqs (or Lathum), because I don't know that they are wolves either, and I would certainly be at fault if they were lynched on my say so.

Just making sure I understand here... You don't feel that Martin or Claphamsa are wolves so throwing out people you think are more likely to be wolves and give your reasoning for it. You then say for people to feel free to follow if you want.

You later then say you would be uncomfortable if a run develops and one of the people you think more likely to be a wolf gets lynched.

So you aren't a big fan of who people are voting for, and are not a big fan of people voting for who you are voting for.. yet are not a big fan of people voting no lynch.... What are you a big fan of? :)

[DaddyTorgo]

aaah. forgot this was a 2pm deadline. that's typically right in the middle of my lunch hour

[DaddyTorgo]

oh. 2pm central...lol

[Chief Rum]

Just making sure I understand here... You don't feel that Martin or Claphamsa are wolves so throwing out people you think are more likely to be wolves and give your reasoning for it. You then say for people to feel free to follow if you want.

You later then say you would be uncomfortable if a run develops and one of the people you think more likely to be a wolf gets lynched.

So you aren't a big fan of who people are voting for, and are not a big fan of people voting for who you are voting for.. yet are not a big fan of people voting no lynch.... What are you a big fan of? :)

lol...I'm not a big fan of lynching anyone. There is no one in this game currently who I feel is a wolf or has done something wolfy whatsoever. If it was for the best of the village to "no lynch", I would. But I don't think it is, so I must vote.

And even though I don't like anyone as a wolf just yet, I still have to vote, even if the reason is crappy (which it is). I just picked what is, to me, a very slightly less crappy reason than the ones put forth for clap and Martin, especially given their particular circumstances (a vote for clap on Day One might as well be a throwaway vote, because it's always defensible because of who clap is; MartinD just won't be around).

So I am voting for lerriuqs because I have to vote for someone. But that doesn't mean I really think lerriuqs is a wolf, and if he is lynched off of some run away initiated by me, I will feel more than a little bit guilty about that.

The "feel free to follow me" was a rather flippant "do whatever you want" that I think was a poor addition on my part to that post.

[GoldenEagle]

Just making sure I understand here... You don't feel that Martin or Claphamsa are wolves so throwing out people you think are more likely to be wolves and give your reasoning for it. You then say for people to feel free to follow if you want.

You later then say you would be uncomfortable if a run develops and one of the people you think more likely to be a wolf gets lynched.

So you aren't a big fan of who people are voting for, and are not a big fan of people voting for who you are voting for.. yet are not a big fan of people voting no lynch.... What are you a big fan of? :)

Don't forget that he also suggested lynching the team's best player, me.

[Lathum]

So later on, if I am not attacked, I must be a wolf, right? Setting up that argument already? How Machiavellian.

just call me the Prince

[Danny]

Trying to catch up real quick before deadline. But basically barring any late movement my choice is no lynch or MartinD to have a meaningful vote.

[Alan T]

If Telle's last vote count is accurate, it looks like I pretty much have to vote MartinD or it could easily end up being a no lynch. I'm not going to vote for some other third party to say that I didn't "no vote" but effectively no voting by having a meaningless vote out there as well. Unfortunately today appears to be about whether we should vote or not vote, which does not give us much of a track record at all.

Vote MartinD

[Lathum]

lol, I thought the deadline had passed already.

I think we need to implement a rule that all times are in EST

[Danny]

I will not be voting no lynch. I stated my argument before, but I believe a no lynch benefits the wolves. So as of now, if there is no movement, I will be voting for MartinD.

[lerriuqs]

Unvote clap
Vote MartinD

I don't want no lynch sneaking in at the end.

[Danny]

Ok so we have 7-5 MartinD vs. No lynch

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:


Mia Ow 0 --
No Lynch 5 -- Kwhit (103) JAG (131) MartinD (133) DaddyTorgo (182) PurdueBrad (185)
MartinD 8 -- Mia Ow (142) Schmidty (154) Telle (183) claphamsa (192) The Jackal (207) Lathum (262) Alan T (282) lerriuqs (285)
claphamsa 2 -- LoneStarGirl (156) Darth Vilus (159)
lerriuqs 2 -- Chief Rum (242) GoldenEagle (245)

[Chief Rum]

Are we clear on getting a lynch?

If we are, I will leave my vote where it is.

If we need my vote to defeat a no lynch, though, I will change my vote. The need for a lynch, IMO, trumps any specific reason I have for voting particular lynch candidates.

[Danny]

Wow, my vote is basically meaningless now wherever I vote. Seriously though, we would have been much better off having a vote showdown between two players instead of this. And since no lynch isn't looking great, I will vote for a secondary option for now and see if there is any movement.

[Chief Rum]

Going from Pass's vote tally, I think we're in the clear. I will remain on lerriuqs.

[lerriuqs]

Are we clear on getting a lynch?

If we are, I will leave my vote where it is.

If we need my vote to defeat a no lynch, though, I will change my vote. The need for a lynch, IMO, trumps any specific reason I have for voting particular lynch candidates.

Unless we get a bunch of last minute changes, we should be clear.

[Danny]

Are we clear on getting a lynch?

If we are, I will leave my vote where it is.

If we need my vote to defeat a no lynch, though, I will change my vote. The need for a lynch, IMO, trumps any specific reason I have for voting particular lynch candidates.

I agree with this, but right now we are pretty set and really if anyone comes in and swings this to a no lynch, they are basically lynching themselves for tomorrow.

[Danny]

Really no point in my vote, but

Vote MartinD

I am pretty disappointed that players are not being forced to choose between two candidates.

[GoldenEagle]

I thought the MartinD lad had a real talent. And when I say real talent, I mean he would pass me the ball every now and then.

Does anyone know his approximate wages? I need to give my agent a call.

[Danny]

The movement against having Clap as a second candidate is something I want to look more at when I have the chance. I realize he is often targeted early, but without having looked at in depth, it seems like that pretty much made this a one candidate race with no lynch in there.

[JAG]

There's a lot of people here. Obviously lynching has won, so I will switch.

VOTE LERRIUQS

I agree with CR's reasoning.

[Danny]

JAG Its a bit late, but I assume you need to actually unvote no lynch

[JAG]

I didn't realize it was that close to deadline and forgot to unvote first, nice. Not that it would've mattered in the outcome.

[Passacaglia]

There's a lot of people here. Obviously lynching has won, so I will switch.

VOTE LERRIUQS

I agree with CR's reasoning.

I will count this, but please unvote next time.

[Passacaglia]

Final vote count:


Mia Ow 0 --
No Lynch 4 -- Kwhit (103) MartinD (133) DaddyTorgo (182) PurdueBrad (185)
MartinD 9 -- Mia Ow (142) Schmidty (154) Telle (183) claphamsa (192) The Jackal (207) Lathum (262) Alan T (282) lerriuqs (285) Danny (293)
claphamsa 2 -- LoneStarGirl (156) Darth Vilus (159)
lerriuqs 3 -- Chief Rum (242) GoldenEagle (245) JAG (296)

[Passacaglia]

The gang gets together to discuss the sabotage problem within their ranks. Some players suggest waiting until the squad has played its first match, but those folks are eventually quieted, and the group decides on MartinD as its scapegoat. MartinD accepts his fate quietly, and dies.

As the team prepares for its first match, a fax comes in for KWhit. He reads it aloud:


Player Report on MartinD by Passacaglia

MartinD is the #3 player to come off the bench. He has the skill to be a #2 Striker for the squad, but his versatility makes him better suited to begin the match sitting and fill in where needed.

MartinD’s skills:

GK: 51
CB: 45
FB: 25
CM: 27
W: 60
S: 94
Average: 50


No evidence is found in MartinD’s locker room of wolfish activity. MartinD was a villager!

[lerriuqs]

Sorry Martin.

[Danny]

Wow, that's pretty detailed ratings.

[JAG]

KWhit, did you have Martin at the #3 position on the bench in your lineup or is that Pass's take on his skills?

[Passacaglia]

KWhit posts the lineup for today’s match:

1 Goalkeeper - The Jackal
2 Center Backs - Lathum, ~~~~~~~ Danny
2 Full Backs - DaddyTorgo, lerriuqs
2 Central Midfielders - claphamsa, Schmidty
2 Wingers - JAG, Mia Ow
2 Strikers - J23, Darth Vilus

Bench:

~~~~~ LoneStarGirl
PurdueBrad
Telle
Chief Rum
GoldenEagle


KWhit and The Jackal may communicate freely, everyone may communicate with their position mate, and all 5 bench players may communicate with each other (though if you send a message to one, you must send it to all). Please CC me on all PMs (purely for my own entertainment).

[Lathum]

KWhit, knowing MartinD was a lynch candidate why did you have him on the roster at all?

[MartinD]

Well, I was bound to get lynched on day 1 at some point... <shrug>


lol, I thought the deadline had passed already.

I think we need to implement a rule that all times are in EST

If I ever run a game, I think that I'll give the deadlines in GMT (or maybe BST in winter, to really screw with your minds :eek: :D )

[Passacaglia]

KWhit turns to Alan T, as everyone else gets into position. “Sorry, mate, don’t need you this game.” Alan T looks dejected. “Oh yeah? We’ll see about that!” He slips a tablet into Danny’s coffee, and it causes an awful lot of mess. Danny gets ready to take his position at Center Back, but keels over dead. Alan T is the Jealous player and has chosen to kill Danny! Upon seeing Danny out of commission at the last minute, KWhit has no chance to shift things around, and sticks Alan T in at center back.

[Alan T]

Oh well, guess Danny wasn't a wolf. Sorry Danny. I didn't like the way you came across at the end of the day. your arguements are exactly what I would picture you saying as a wolf and it really didn't feel good to me. I also felt your death would help me learn more about claphamsa too. bad call on my part, sometimes my gut wins, sometimes it just eats food.

[Lathum]

wow.

[GoldenEagle]

If we lose our first match, we should lynch the stinkin' gaffer. Why would he leave his best player on the bench? I am not injured at the moment, although I might pick up a knock sitting on this wretched benched.

The gaffer must have thought I was injured. Who is the physio around these parts? He must be poisoned as well, feeding the gaffer with wrong information.

[Lathum]

so do I get to PM with AlanT?

[Passacaglia]

As KWhit is giving one of his patented “team talks” that helped him get this job at the last minute, a stone crashes through the window. He picks it up, and finds a note attached:

Player Report on Danny by Passacaglia

Danny is the #1 Winger on this squad and should start there every game.

Danny’s skills:

GK: 76
CB: 83
FB: 39
CM: 1
W: 98
S: 7
Average: 51

In Danny’s locker, you find teeth marks all over the inside of the door. Danny was a wolf!

[GoldenEagle]

Oh well, guess Danny wasn't a wolf. Sorry Danny. I didn't like the way you came across at the end of the day. your arguements are exactly what I would picture you saying as a wolf and it really didn't feel good to me. I also felt your death would help me learn more about claphamsa too. bad call on my part, sometimes my gut wins, sometimes it just eats food.

WTF mate? You should have just sat on the bench and chilled with me. We could have discussed football and.... not killing teammates.

[lerriuqs]

Oh well, guess Danny wasn't a wolf. Sorry Danny. I didn't like the way you came across at the end of the day. your arguements are exactly what I would picture you saying as a wolf and it really didn't feel good to me. I also felt your death would help me learn more about claphamsa too. bad call on my part, sometimes my gut wins, sometimes it just eats food.

Great job Alan!!!

[GoldenEagle]

In Danny’s locker, you find teeth marks all over the inside of the door. Danny was a wolf!

Oh shi!

[Lathum]

Damn, nice pick up Alan!

[JAG]

As KWhit is giving one of his patented “team talks” that helped him get this job at the last minute, a stone crashes through the window. He picks it up, and finds a note attached:

In Danny’s locker, you find teeth marks all over the inside of the door. Danny was a wolf!

Outstanding call Alan.

[KWhit]

KWhit, knowing MartinD was a lynch candidate why did you have him on the roster at all?

I didn't. I conditionally had him in there, but to be replaced if he was lynched.

[Lathum]

I didn't. I conditionally had him in there, but to be replaced if he was lynched.

ok, cool. The wording was a little confusing.

[Lathum]

PAss, are we allowed to talk to our partners on AIM?

[Passacaglia]

The match is a tough affair – the squad falls 0-1 early, but a late goal equalizes, and the match ends in a 1-1 draw. Man of the Match is Darth Vilus. The squad will feel they might have scored more goals, if not for J23, who would not recognize the great game by Darth, and took too many shots himself.

The skill levels, in descending order:

1. Darth Vilus, Striker, 94
2. Alan T, Center Back, 81
3. lerriuqs, Full Back, 65
4. Schmidty, Center Midfielder, 54
5. DaddyTorgo, Full Back, 52
6. JAG, Winger, 28
7. Mia Ow, Winger, 28
8. claphamsa, Winger, 24
9. Lathum, Center Back, 22
10. The Jackal, Goalkeeper, 15
11. J23, Striker, 14

Bench players:

1. LoneStarGirl, 62
2. PurdueBrad, 48
3. Chief Rum, 46
4. Telle, 45
5. GoldenEagle, 43

Total: 633
Result: Draw
Points: 1

Day 2 Begins!!!

[Passacaglia]

PAss, are we allowed to talk to our partners on AIM?

Yep. If you don't mind sending me a transcript though, that would be cool. Not a huge deal, though.

[Alan T]

Oh so Danny was a wolf then. Cool. That makes me feel a bit better about Claphamsa now, I don't think he is bad at all. With MartinD also being good, that means neither of the two were a bad guy most likely.

That immediately makes me wonder some about Chief Rum as he seemed to set himself up as the "not wanting to lynch either of them" earlier but then remaining rather flippy floppy on everyone else as well. In reality though with the strong no lynch contingent and the two candidates both being good, I'm guessing the wolves didn't have to try hard to fit in anywhere we made it easy on them. So I don't know if Chief would have stuck his neck out in a spot that it was not needed such as today, but still someone that probably is worth a scan since he can be a very valuable villager (if he can be trusted).

The other person that struck me the wrong way earlier (maybe last night or early this morning, I don't remember which), was some stuff that TheJackal posted. Just sat with me the wrong way. Made me feel too much like how Anxiety used to respond to me when he was a wolf. I didn't feel strong enough about him to put an order in for him though, I was going to see how it played out over a few days. I actually didn't put an order in at all until like 2:58pm ET when Danny really set off warning bells for me.

Don't get me wrong, I don't feel strongly about The Jackal currently, just the top of my suspicion list right now. Saying what I think in case I get killed in the next day or so.

[Alan T]

Yep. If you don't mind sending me a transcript though, that would be cool. Not a huge deal, though.


So I have PM rights with Lathum until 3pm ET tomorrow correct?

[Telle]

Ummm.. no night kill?

[Passacaglia]

So I have PM rights with Lathum until 3pm ET tomorrow correct?

Correct.

[lerriuqs]

So no night kill Pass?

[Passacaglia]

Ummm.. no night kill?

Ask Danny if there was no kill at night! :p

[Passacaglia]

So no night kill Pass?

Wow, you forgot about Danny, too?

[Telle]

Ask Danny if there was no kill at night! :p

So no WOLF kill overnight? Danny was killed by a villager.

[lerriuqs]

So no WOLF kill overnight? Danny was killed by a villager.

wss

[Passacaglia]

So no WOLF kill overnight? Danny was killed by a villager.

None of my games have conversions.

[lerriuqs]

Well Pass is being evasive meaning one of two things IMO.

1. We got a block.
2. Danny was supposed to do the nightkill and there was no backup plan.

[JAG]

Shall we just assume Pass is being goofy and either the BG got a remarkable block or the -2 penalty isn't assessed immediately?

[Telle]

None of my games have conversions.

I didn't ask if there was a conversion. I asked if there was no wolf kill overnight. Just wanted to make sure we weren't missing that yet.

If there was no wolf kill, that means either they wolves elected to tamper with the game instead, or Danny was the one set to make the kill and he got killed beforehand.

[Telle]

Oh I forgot about a bodyguard block.. another possibility.

[Passacaglia]

Also, none of my games have roles that require the wolves to pick a killer -- they just tell me who dies. And the -2 penalty would be assessed right away if it happened.

[Lathum]

I am guessing the wolves have to assign who is going to do the kill and the assigned Danny

[KWhit]

Sounds like we got a block!

[GoldenEagle]

I would imagine the wolves tried to kill me last night. The tough guy did a good job of protecting me. If I was the wolves, I would try to kill the best player as well.

Too bad the gaffer thought I was injured and did not play me. We might have won by five or six goals. The league may have given us four points if I was on the pitch!

[Telle]

Also, none of my games have roles that require the wolves to pick a killer -- they just tell me who dies. And the -2 penalty would be assessed right away if it happened.

So that leaves us with the bodyguard block.

[KWhit]

Great job out there today team!

We had some guys playing out of position today and still got a draw. Fantastic result. I'll fix the lineup for tomorrow and we won't be satisfied with a draw for our next game.

Get in there and hit the showers!

[KWhit]

Great job out there today team!

We had some guys playing out of position today and still got a draw. Fantastic result. I'll fix the lineup for tomorrow and we won't be satisfied with a draw for our next game.

Get in there and hit the showers!

And try not to kill any more of each other.

Sheesh!

[DaddyTorgo]

sounds like i wasn't at my best position kwhit - just fyi. since i only threw up a low-50's rating.

[PurdueBrad]

WOW, a ton to look through. Nice job Alan! Wish we could have won but a draw is worth a point anyway.

[Alan T]

Does someone have a final vote count (including people who did not vote if there are any)?

Sorry for being a slacker, I'm having a hectic day at work.

[JAG]

I would imagine the wolves tried to kill me last night. The tough guy did a good job of protecting me. If I was the wolves, I would try to kill the best player as well.

Too bad the gaffer thought I was injured and did not play me. We might have won by five or six goals. The league may have given us four points if I was on the pitch!

Except you ended up being the least talented of the 5 bench players...;)

Awesome that we got the BG block. That, picking off a wolf, and getting a point out of our match makes this a fantastic start. I assume you're already doing this KWhit, but I would suggest leaving the following in place for the next game:

1. Darth Vilus, Striker, 94
2. Alan T, Center Back, 81
3. lerriuqs, Full Back, 65
4. Schmidty, Center Midfielder, 54
5. DaddyTorgo, Full Back, 52

and swapping out the bench for 5 of the 6 starters (with the 6th coming in for whoever gets NK'ed) so that you can learn the average value of the players.

Considering how high the average values are for most players, I think it's very likely we'll be able to come up with a winning lineup soon.

[JAG]

Does someone have a final vote count (including people who did not vote if there are any)?

Sorry for being a slacker, I'm having a hectic day at work.

Post #300:

Mia Ow 0 --
No Lynch 4 -- Kwhit (103) MartinD (133) DaddyTorgo (182) PurdueBrad (185)
MartinD 9 -- Mia Ow (142) Schmidty (154) Telle (183) claphamsa (192) The Jackal (207) Lathum (262) Alan T (282) lerriuqs (285) Danny (293)
claphamsa 2 -- LoneStarGirl (156) Darth Vilus (159)
lerriuqs 3 -- Chief Rum (242) GoldenEagle (245) JAG (296)

[Alan T]

Post #300:

Mia Ow 0 --
No Lynch 4 -- Kwhit (103) MartinD (133) DaddyTorgo (182) PurdueBrad (185)
MartinD 9 -- Mia Ow (142) Schmidty (154) Telle (183) claphamsa (192) The Jackal (207) Lathum (262) Alan T (282) lerriuqs (285) Danny (293)
claphamsa 2 -- LoneStarGirl (156) Darth Vilus (159)
lerriuqs 3 -- Chief Rum (242) GoldenEagle (245) JAG (296)


Ok, so everyone voted then? Thanks.

[Telle]

Post #300:

Mia Ow 0 --
No Lynch 4 -- Kwhit (103) MartinD (133) DaddyTorgo (182) PurdueBrad (185)
MartinD 9 -- Mia Ow (142) Schmidty (154) Telle (183) claphamsa (192) The Jackal (207) Lathum (262) Alan T (282) lerriuqs (285) Danny (293)
claphamsa 2 -- LoneStarGirl (156) Darth Vilus (159)
lerriuqs 3 -- Chief Rum (242) GoldenEagle (245) JAG (296)

Didn't vote: J23

[JAG]

LSG looks like our superstar, her average of 62 is at least 11 points higher than the 6 other player averages we've seen.

[The Jackal]

Wow, lots of things happened while I was at lunch. Apparently I'm not a very good keeper, sorry KWhit.

And hell of a pickup, Alan - may I ask what about my posts struck you the wrong way? I'd like for you to take another look before you start offering me up as the best candidate or anything, though you were right on with Danny.

[Danny]

Good job Alan!

[Chief Rum]

The match is a tough affair – the squad falls 0-1 early, but a late goal equalizes, and the match ends in a 1-1 draw. Man of the Match is Darth Vilus. The squad will feel they might have scored more goals, if not for J23, who would not recognize the great game by Darth, and took too many shots himself.

The skill levels, in descending order:

1. Darth Vilus, Striker, 94
2. Alan T, Center Back, 81
3. lerriuqs, Full Back, 65
4. Schmidty, Center Midfielder, 54
5. DaddyTorgo, Full Back, 52
6. JAG, Winger, 28
7. Mia Ow, Winger, 28
8. claphamsa, Winger, 24
9. Lathum, Center Back, 22
10. The Jackal, Goalkeeper, 15
11. J23, Striker, 14

Bench players:

1. LoneStarGirl, 62
2. PurdueBrad, 48
3. Chief Rum, 46
4. Telle, 45
5. GoldenEagle, 43

Total: 633
Result: Draw
Points: 1

Day 2 Begins!!!

What positions were the bench players played it?

[Passacaglia]

What positions were the bench players played it?

They're not really given positions. Their scoring is different.

[claphamsa]

ok! so i didnt die! danny is ALWAYS a wolf!

and i suck at CM... told you im center back or goalie :P

[Chief Rum]

Two skillsets is hardly a worthy sample on which to base this conclusion, but my guess from comparing Danny's positional ratings with each other, and Martin's as well, that there is no corollation (or no clear corollation for sure) between skill level at similar positions.

For example, it would be reasonable to guess that centrebacks and fullbacks might have related skillsets, or wingers and strikers, but that doesn't seem to be the case. The only rough corollation that stood out to me--and I think it's coincidental--is that the GK and CB ratings for Danny and Martin were fairly close to one another (I mean, Danny's GK and CB ratings were fairly close; and Martin's GK and CB ratings were also fairly close to each other).

I was hoping we might see a connection that might aid KWhit in placing players in new positions, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

[claphamsa]

so now i can chat with schidty all i want? right?

[J23]

Checking in, sorry for the novote today. I wasn't able to get on at all from work. It shouldn't happen again (I hope).

[J23]

Looks like a fantastic first day (even though I suck @ Striker). It figures since I played midfield and defense back in the day!

What's the feeling on the lynch v. no lynch at this point?

[claphamsa]

Looks like a fantastic first day (even though I suck @ Striker). It figures since I played midfield and defense back in the day!

What's the feeling on the lynch v. no lynch at this point?
no lynch is NEVER a valid option!

[GoldenEagle]

Looks like a fantastic first day (even though I suck @ Striker). It figures since I played midfield and defense back in the day!

What's the feeling on the lynch v. no lynch at this point?

Yea, mate, nothing personal, but your no good at the football.

[J23]

I was hoping we might see a connection that might aid KWhit in placing players in new positions, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

I would assume that they're all random given what we've seen. I would have expected as much or I think it would have been too easy on the manager.

[Chief Rum]

I would assume that they're all random given what we've seen. I would have expected as much or I think it would have been too easy on the manager.

I agree that it was presumeable to be random, but it's good to have evidence of it, so KWhit won't falsely take it into consideration with his next lineup.

[Schmidty]

Busy day. Checking in and catching up right now.

[GoldenEagle]

Except you ended up being the least talented of the 5 bench players...;)

Who is running our scouting department around here?

Perhaps the bench score is related to defense, which I will admit that I can be poor at sometimes. I just have such an offensive and creative mind, that I sometimes forget to play the defense, yea?

I got me a pair of pink boots in for tomorrow's match. The gaffer has ensured me that I will be starting. You know if you break out the pink boots, your bad ass.

Also the match report does not say who scored the goal, only that it was a late equalizer. Late equalizers are my specialty. It perfectly presumable that I came off the bench as a substitute and scored the goal. I probably replaced the rubbish of a football player that is J23, yea?

[Schmidty]

Damn, nice pick up Alan!

I would have gotten ripped to shreds if I had done that.....

;)

Anyway, nice gut move Alan!!!!! :D

[Lathum]

I would have gotten ripped to shreds if I had done that.....

;)

Anyway, nice gut move Alan!!!!! :D

well if you had done it then it would have been a bonehead move ;)

[Schmidty]

well if you had done it then it would have been a bonehead move ;)

Very true, very true. :p :D

[GoldenEagle]

LSG looks like our superstar, her average of 62 is at least 11 points higher than the 6 other player averages we've seen.

Are we sure that bench score = average score ?

Another interesting discussion topic is who the wolves will kill? Do they try to take out our best players or do they do random kills hoping to get the body guard and the seer?

The body guard also has a difficult decision to make. Does he guard our best player and assume the wolves will go after him/her?

Obviously, if Darth is on the field, then we have almost 100 of 800 points needed for the win. But I don't think that should give him automatic protection. A wolf who has great soccer skills is seating in a pretty good position right now.

I was also a bit suspect when AlanT asked to play goalkeeper. This would allow him to have PM privileges with the manager. But obviously he is in the COT now, but I have to be cautious of any player who asks for PM privileges with the manager.

[claphamsa]

Are we sure that bench score = average score ?

Another interesting discussion topic is who the wolves will kill? Do they try to take out our best players or do they do random kills hoping to get the body guard and the seer?

The body guard also has a difficult decision to make. Does he guard our best player and assume the wolves will go after him/her?

Obviously, if Darth is on the field, then we have almost 100 of 800 points needed for the win. But I don't think that should give him automatic protection. A wolf who has great soccer skills is seating in a pretty good position right now.

I was also a bit suspect when AlanT asked to play goalkeeper. This would allow him to have PM privileges with the manager. But obviously he is in the COT now, but I have to be cautious of any player who asks for PM privileges with the manager.

alan T along with Kwit are undeniably good.... why would you suspect anything?

[GoldenEagle]

alan T along with Kwit are undeniably good.... why would you suspect anything?

My suspension was when Alan asked to be the goalkeeper. The benefit of that is that the GK is the only person who can PM with the manager. If that person is a wolf, he can influence the manager with a fake reveal.

Obviously, Alan is good but that it raised a warning flag when he asked to be the goalkeeper.

[LoneStarGirl]

LSG looks like our superstar, her average of 62 is at least 11 points higher than the 6 other player averages we've seen.

quoted for truth

[claphamsa]

My suspension was when Alan asked to be the goalkeeper. The benefit of that is that the GK is the only person who can PM with the manager. If that person is a wolf, he can influence the manager with a fake reveal.

Obviously, Alan is good but that it raised a warning flag when he asked to be the goalkeeper.
are you high?

[LoneStarGirl]

A lot has happened in the 12 hours since I have been online.

Alant, great job!

Kwhit - Damn you for not playing me!

GoldenEagle - HAHA my ranking was so much better than yours and football is your sport!

And I feel very confused about a lot of things in this game, particullarly based on Pass's evasiveness. There are a lot of bench players to pm, although I really dont see the benefit at this point, but I do find it amusing that both GE and I are on the bench. Pass do GE and I HAVE to talk about WW through pm's or can we have some pillow talk about WW? ;)

[Alan T]

I was also a bit suspect when AlanT asked to play goalkeeper. This would allow him to have PM privileges with the manager. But obviously he is in the COT now, but I have to be cautious of any player who asks for PM privileges with the manager.

I can see where you are coming from here. I originally had actually asked to be sat out (so I could have a chance to use my power), but after part of the day I had no one that I felt strong about using my power on so I asked to play goalkeep in order to let Kwhit know my role and ability to be able to use as he saw fit. He evidently either went with my original request or completely ignored the request (not sure which), but I guess it all worked out in the end!

[claphamsa]

how did you pick danny? other than the fact that he has been a wolf in 60% of the games hes played?

[Alan T]

how did you pick danny? other than the fact that he has been a wolf in 60% of the games hes played?

The way he entered near the deadline and was talking rubbed me the wrong way. I didn't remember much of anything he said prior in the day and suddenly he appeared saying all kinds of stuff. That in itself is no big deal, could have just been a busy schedule but he seemed to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. He was arguing one way then acting a different way then throwing blame back the first way again. I guess his actions didn't match what he was saying to me and set off warning bells.

In the end, I likely just got lucky.

[claphamsa]

The way he entered near the deadline and was talking rubbed me the wrong way. I didn't remember much of anything he said prior in the day and suddenly he appeared saying all kinds of stuff. That in itself is no big deal, could have just been a busy schedule but he seemed to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. He was arguing one way then acting a different way then throwing blame back the first way again. I guess his actions didn't match what he was saying to me and set off warning bells.

In the end, I likely just got lucky.

funny thing... you didnt rub me wrong so far... I was so sure you were a wolf!

im so good at this :D

[Danny]

The way he entered near the deadline and was talking rubbed me the wrong way. I didn't remember much of anything he said prior in the day and suddenly he appeared saying all kinds of stuff. That in itself is no big deal, could have just been a busy schedule but he seemed to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. He was arguing one way then acting a different way then throwing blame back the first way again. I guess his actions didn't match what he was saying to me and set off warning bells.

In the end, I likely just got lucky.

It really was my schedule, I normally have a good amount of time to devote, but much less now and wasn't actually around until that 20 minutes or so before deadline, so I may have tried to squeeze too much into that short time period. I probably would have done the same as a villager, but either way it was a good read as slightly different from how I normally play, even if it is only because I can't be as active.

[Darth Vilus]

Darth Vilus= thread killer

and what is that supposed to mean?

[Lathum]

and what is that supposed to mean?

It's an FOFC inside joke.

The last person to post in a thread is the thread killer. No one posted for almost an hour after one of your afternoon posts today.

[Schmidty]

It's an FOFC inside joke.

The last person to post in a thread is the thread killer. No one posted for almost an hour after one of your afternoon posts today.

Yeah, it's just an innocent FOFC inside joke. No biggie.

You'll catch on to the lingo eventually, Darthy McDarthalot!!! :)

[Darth Vilus]

Oh i see, makes sense

And EAT IT GOLDENEAGLE! 94 AT STRIKER HOMIE! wHO'S THE BEST PLAYER?

Getting serious for a moment, anyone think it's odd that GE would try to throw suspicion my way when I am a huge asset to winning games? First he says not to protect me than says that I might be a wolf. Looks like he's trying to kill me anyway he can. Very suspicious I must say. I mean no one can be that delusional, can they?

[JAG]

Are we sure that bench score = average score ?

At the end of each day, a match report will be posted, showing how good each starter was at the position they played, and the average skill for the bench players.

Another interesting discussion topic is who the wolves will kill? Do they try to take out our best players or do they do random kills hoping to get the body guard and the seer?

All things being equal (having no additional information and assuming our top players aren't wolves), I would think they would aim for our top players since we already have a team only 170 points from being a winning one, and that's with 5 positions yielding 20ish or fewer points. If we get 3 wins going forward, the game is over unless they're willing to stop killing villagers.

[LoneStarGirl]

I figured with as many people were in the game this thread would be hopping at night, but sadly this is not so. This will be my only post before 2 pm deadline, and I HATE having to vote and run but I am going to throw my vote out for vote chief rum

Some of the things he said earlier raised the hair on the back of my neck. And if I had more than 5 minutes at the computer this morning I would rehash them all out, but unfortunately I have to leave for work now.

[PurdueBrad]

They're not really given positions. Their scoring is different.

The lesson here being that PurdueBrad is not a very good bench player and therefore, belongs on the field!

Anyway, I'm fighting some sort of cold/flu thing so I'll be in and out of commission today but given that we have some good information of player skills, I will likely be more in favor of a lynch today than I was yesterday.

[DaddyTorgo]

crazyness. i'm around today, but work is pretty busy i think.

[DaddyTorgo]

i wonder if GE is a wolf and all his talk about being the best has been a way to try to setup his defense rather than him being more in-charactery?

i don't necessarily have any opinion, just floating the thought.

[claphamsa]

not very lively in here.....

do we have any votes yet? other than LSGs?

[DaddyTorgo]

i'd love to be more lively, but work is cuckoo

[Chief Rum]

I figured with as many people were in the game this thread would be hopping at night, but sadly this is not so. This will be my only post before 2 pm deadline, and I HATE having to vote and run but I am going to throw my vote out for vote chief rum

Some of the things he said earlier raised the hair on the back of my neck. And if I had more than 5 minutes at the computer this morning I would rehash them all out, but unfortunately I have to leave for work now.

There's the best vote around.

"Here's my vote. I have my reasons but I'm too busy to say them right now. I won't be back before deadline."

Let me prepare a defense for that. Oh wait, I can't. :rolleyes:

[Passacaglia]

Two skillsets is hardly a worthy sample on which to base this conclusion, but my guess from comparing Danny's positional ratings with each other, and Martin's as well, that there is no corollation (or no clear corollation for sure) between skill level at similar positions.

For example, it would be reasonable to guess that centrebacks and fullbacks might have related skillsets, or wingers and strikers, but that doesn't seem to be the case. The only rough corollation that stood out to me--and I think it's coincidental--is that the GK and CB ratings for Danny and Martin were fairly close to one another (I mean, Danny's GK and CB ratings were fairly close; and Martin's GK and CB ratings were also fairly close to each other).

I was hoping we might see a connection that might aid KWhit in placing players in new positions, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

Yes, there is no corollation between skill level at similar positions. Each skill level is an independent random number, 1 to 100.

[Passacaglia]

A lot has happened in the 12 hours since I have been online.

Alant, great job!

Kwhit - Damn you for not playing me!

GoldenEagle - HAHA my ranking was so much better than yours and football is your sport!

And I feel very confused about a lot of things in this game, particullarly based on Pass's evasiveness. There are a lot of bench players to pm, although I really dont see the benefit at this point, but I do find it amusing that both GE and I are on the bench. Pass do GE and I HAVE to talk about WW through pm's or can we have some pillow talk about WW? ;)

Like I said to Lathum, you don't have to use PMs, but if you use some other form of communication, please CC me the juicy details...I mean transcript.

[Passacaglia]

I figured with as many people were in the game this thread would be hopping at night, but sadly this is not so. This will be my only post before 2 pm deadline, and I HATE having to vote and run but I am going to throw my vote out for vote chief rum

Some of the things he said earlier raised the hair on the back of my neck. And if I had more than 5 minutes at the computer this morning I would rehash them all out, but unfortunately I have to leave for work now.

I'll count this, but in the future, please put your vote on its own line.

[Lathum]

So coming off a tie yesterday and thanks to AlanT getting a wolf I am wondering if no lynch and going for a win is the way to go.

Thoughts?

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:


Chief Rum 1 -- LoneStarGirl (387)

[claphamsa]

Like I said to Lathum, you don't have to use PMs, but if you use some other form of communication, please CC me the juicy details...I mean transcript.
forum posts are the best!

[claphamsa]

So coming off a tie yesterday and thanks to AlanT getting a wolf I am wondering if no lynch and going for a win is the way to go.

Thoughts?
how does no lynch and going for the win correlate? we go for the win AND lynch!

[Lathum]

how does no lynch and going for the win correlate? we go for the win AND lynch!

because we have a chance of also hitting a rolled player.

We are in as good a shape after Day 1 as could be.

I have no problem with lynching, just trying to get some discussion going before I head to the airport to pick my parents up.

[claphamsa]

because we have a chance of also hitting a rolled player.

We are in as good a shape after Day 1 as could be.

I have no problem with lynching, just trying to get some discussion going before I head to the airport to pick my parents up.
fair enough :)

[JAG]

Pass, if we don't have enough players for a full bench, do we receive (average of bench players) / 3 or (average of bench players) / (# of bench players) points for a match?

[JAG]

We scored 633 points yesterday, 167 points short of a win and an average of 45 points per player. Of the player skills we've seen, we've seen averages of 51 (Danny), 50 (MartinD), 62 (LSG), PB (48), CR (46), Telle (45), and GE (43), an average of 49 points, which might mean we actually have bad luck with the lineup we chose and still we're overly far from a win. We need to get 800 points to win, an average of 57 points per player.

How much can we be expected to score today?

Let's assume the wolves go with optimal 'don't let them win the match' strategy and kill Darth, which loses us 94 points. For today's match, assuming KWhit keeps the next 4 highest scoring people in place, we'll start with:

81 (Alan) + 65 (lerriuqs) + 54 (Schmidty) + 52 (DT) = 252 guaranteed points

Now assuming he plays everyone that was on the bench, let's take their average to figure out how many points we'd get from them. There's obviously some possible variation here depending on how lucky KWhit gets, but: 62+48+46+45+43 = 244 expected points. That equals = 252+244 = 496 points from 9 of 11 starting positions.

Players have seemed to be right around the 50 point mark for an average, so the 3 highest on our bench will probably be around 50 points. 3 x 50 = 150 points. 496+150 = 646 points for 9 of 11 starters and the 3 bench players. Assuming the other 2 starters average 50 points (typical player average), that's another 100 points, which takes us to 646+100 = 746 points

So our average score for this upcoming game should be 746 points, 54 points short of a win. However there are other considerations that might keep wolves from going with optimal strategy (i.e. Darth might be a wolf, they might choose not to go after Alan because they know he's not the seer, they might be afraid of another BG block). If that's the case, we only need a little favorable luck to get a win today.

[JAG]

So coming off a tie yesterday and thanks to AlanT getting a wolf I am wondering if no lynch and going for a win is the way to go.

Thoughts?

That's my inclination too. Right now we have 16 players. Once we get below the 14 player threshold, our average points we need per position rises from 57 to 61.5 and another 4.5 points per player after that (assuming we only get full bench points if we have a 3 person bench), so we probably want to slow the game down at this point since we already eliminated one wolf.

[Passacaglia]

Pass, if we don't have enough players for a full bench, do we receive (average of bench players) / 3 or (average of bench players) / (# of bench players) points for a match?

Even if you do have a full bench, you get the 3 highest averages -- in the case of Game 1, you got 62 from LoneStarGirl, 48 from PurdueBrad, and 46 from Chief Rum. Telle and GoldenEagle's skill levels weren't counted. So if you can only have 3 bench players, you can still run at maximum capacity. If a day begins such that KWhit realizes he won't even have 3 bench players, he may institute a new substitution method (I'm only using his name for flavor here, this is something I will do, not him), which will change how bench players are used. I hope that answers your question!

[KWhit]

I would like us to go with a No Lynch strategy today and try to win games. Hopefully we win today and put serious pressure on the wolves.

[GoldenEagle]

Oh i see, makes sense

And EAT IT GOLDENEAGLE! 94 AT STRIKER HOMIE! wHO'S THE BEST PLAYER?

Getting serious for a moment, anyone think it's odd that GE would try to throw suspicion my way when I am a huge asset to winning games? First he says not to protect me than says that I might be a wolf. Looks like he's trying to kill me anyway he can. Very suspicious I must say. I mean no one can be that delusional, can they?

I was not suggesting that we lynch you. I was just merely stating that we needed to be cautious of our best players. We can't afford to fall into a trap of keeping our best players around even though the evidence points to the fact that they may be wolves.

I am not saying we need to lynch you at this point, I am just stating that it would be wise to be aware.

[Chief Rum]

A chance to start a COT?

I would have come out with this yesterday, but I wanted to confirm an ambiguity with Pass. I heard back from him today, so now I can announce:

I was the one who was attacked last night/yesterday. So the BG protected me.

That means the BG won't be able to protect me today, although now that my value is out there as a player, I'm not sure there would be a point in protecting me again.

[KWhit]

The match is a tough affair – the squad falls 0-1 early, but a late goal equalizes, and the match ends in a 1-1 draw. Man of the Match is Darth Vilus. The squad will feel they might have scored more goals, if not for J23, who would not recognize the great game by Darth, and took too many shots himself.

The skill levels, in descending order:

1. Darth Vilus, Striker, 94
2. Alan T, Center Back, 81
3. lerriuqs, Full Back, 65
4. Schmidty, Center Midfielder, 54
5. DaddyTorgo, Full Back, 52
6. JAG, Winger, 28
7. Mia Ow, Winger, 28
8. claphamsa, Winger, 24
9. Lathum, Center Back, 22
10. The Jackal, Goalkeeper, 15
11. J23, Striker, 14

Bench players:

1. LoneStarGirl, 62
2. PurdueBrad, 48
3. Chief Rum, 46
4. Telle, 45
5. GoldenEagle, 43

Total: 633
Result: Draw
Points: 1

Day 2 Begins!!!

Hey, Pass.

I took a closer look at this and see that you have us down for 3 wingers. I had claphamsa playing at central midfielder. It's no biggie, but I need to know for my lineup calculations, if the 24 skill level is his winger skill or his center midfield skill level.

Thanks!

[claphamsa]

A chance to start a COT?

I would have come out with this yesterday, but I wanted to confirm an ambiguity with Pass. I heard back from him today, so now I can announce:

I was the one who was attacked last night/yesterday. So the BG protected me.

That means the BG won't be able to protect me today, although now that my value is out there as a player, I'm not sure there would be a point in protecting me again.
so pass told you that you were attacked?

hmmmmmmmmm interesting! I guess that makes you good :)

[claphamsa]

ok, so alan and Kwitt are good.... CR is most likely good... and I am good so that is 4 :)

[GoldenEagle]

i wonder if GE is a wolf and all his talk about being the best has been a way to try to setup his defense rather than him being more in-charactery?

i don't necessarily have any opinion, just floating the thought.

Look, mate, I don't want to refer to you as a wanker or anything, but your kind of being one. I guess its a good thing the jealous role has already been exposed or else I would be pinning that on you, yea?

[Passacaglia]

Hey, Pass.

I took a closer look at this and see that you have us down for 3 wingers. I had claphamsa playing at central midfielder. It's no biggie, but I need to know for my lineup calculations, if the 24 skill level is his winger skill or his center midfield skill level.

Thanks!

My bad -- his skill level was from central midfielder, I just typed in the wrong word.

[KWhit]

My bad -- his skill level was from central midfielder, I just typed in the wrong word.

No prob.

[DaddyTorgo]

Look, mate, I don't want to refer to you as a wanker or anything, but your kind of being one. I guess its a good thing the jealous role has already been exposed or else I would be pinning that on you, yea?
:lol:

i think KWhit should seriously consider moving people around (such as myself) whose skills are hovering right around average. i think in that case that the possible gain far outweighs the loss. if he keeps me where i am i give 52pts, but if he moves me and finds my natural position i could account for almost 2 full players worth of points.

i hope he's keeping good notes too...

[KWhit]

:lol:

i think KWhit should seriously consider moving people around (such as myself) whose skills are hovering right around average. i think in that case that the possible gain far outweighs the loss. if he keeps me where i am i give 52pts, but if he moves me and finds my natural position i could account for almost 2 full players worth of points.

i hope he's keeping good notes too...

I am keeping good notes. My spreadsheet is loaded with info.

But I'm keeping my strategy close to my vest. I hear there are wolves running about.

[J23]

:lol:

i think KWhit should seriously consider moving people around (such as myself) whose skills are hovering right around average. i think in that case that the possible gain far outweighs the loss. if he keeps me where i am i give 52pts, but if he moves me and finds my natural position i could account for almost 2 full players worth of points.

i hope he's keeping good notes too...

It's a risk either way. If you're hovering around average, you should have about the same chance of having a lower score vs. a higher score. If we're this close to winning games, how much do you want to mess with the team?

[Chief Rum]

Pass, were the skill sets handed out completely random, across the board, or are we, as a representative squad of a soccer team, broken down into natural CBs, FBs, MFs, STs; etc. such that we can presume there will be 2-3 good CBs, 2-3 good STs, 2-3 good WGs, 2-3 good FBs, etc.?

If it's the former, it's entirely possible we could all be great STs for instance, and none of us good CBs (although as a random pull, that would be very much against the odds).

[Passacaglia]

Pass, were the skill sets handed out completely random, across the board, or are we, as a representative squad of a soccer team, broken down into natural CBs, FBs, MFs, STs; etc. such that we can presume there will be 2-3 good CBs, 2-3 good STs, 2-3 good WGs, 2-3 good FBs, etc.?

If it's the former, it's entirely possible we could all be great STs for instance, and none of us good CBs (although as a random pull, that would be very much against the odds).

Completely random. I asked random.org for 114 random numbers in 6 columns, then pasted them next to your names (then I deleted the row for KWhit).

[claphamsa]

just a note, 3 hours till deadline... and we only have one vote! I wont vote super early again (apparently it makes me a target!)


in the mean time im gonna go to practice and see how i do in net!

[J23]

If it's the former, it's entirely possible we could all be great STs for instance, and none of us good CBs (although as a random pull, that would be very much against the odds).

This is impossible. I have proven that I am a terrible striker. :p

[KWhit]

Vote No Lynch

[Passacaglia]

Oh man, votes are flying now!! Let me try to keep up:


Chief Rum 1 -- LoneStarGirl (387)
No Lynch 1 -- Kwhit (423)

[Chief Rum]

I'm going to support the No Lynch today as well.

Yesterday went well for the village; we have some leeway, at least for a day.

VOTE NO LYNCH

[Passacaglia]

Hey all -- I just found out my office is having an October Fest lunch thing from 1:00 to 2:30. I'm not sure if I'm going to go down for the whole thing, but just thought I'd let you know that results come late. Deadline will remain the same, however.

[GoldenEagle]

I am a bit suspicious of Chief. He is wish-washy yesterday with his voting tactics. He was also surprised when I jumped on the train, stating later he did not really want anyone to follow him.

Now we have this reveal, which I guess is okay. But I am not 100% trustworthy yet. I am not as gullible as Clap, I suppose.

[claphamsa]

Oktoberfest? dont drink too much beer at work events... thats my motto!

[Alan T]

I feel you all are going in the wrong direction here. I think if nothing else, we are making it easier to have good decisions with a lynch vote today than yesterday even.

Based on yesterday's events or at least how things played out, I am ok with us not looking at the following for a vote:


1. claphamsa
3. KWhit
12. Chief Rum
14. Alan T


Based on the scores yesterday at that position it makes sense to not have a vote on the following players so they can help us win. This is a list of people with at least 50+ at the position they played at. Keep in mind Danny had good ratings when he died, so a good player skill wise does not mean they are not a wolf. also DT and Schmidty arguably could be left off of this list if Kwhit is not planning on playing them there again anyways:

16. Darth Vilus
7. lerriuqs
10. Schmidty
9. DaddyTorgo



So that leaves us a good selection of players that I would imagine has at least 2 wolves in it (along with perhaps 2 good roles we can say). The catch is that I'm not overly worried if we accidently get the duke, he can always move the vote elsewhere. So I think all things considered it is in our advantage to try to pick two of the following list and see where it leads us (while making sure kwhit doesn't play the players looking likely to receive a vote):


2. Telle
4. PurdueBrad
5. JAG
6. J23
8. The Jackal
11. Lathum
15. GoldenEagle
17. Mia Ow
19. LoneStarGirl

[PurdueBrad]

I'll support this move (and lets win one!):

vote no lynch

[PurdueBrad]

Based on the scores yesterday at that position it makes sense to not have a vote on the following players so they can help us win. This is a list of people with at least 50+ at the position they played at. Keep in mind Danny had good ratings when he died, so a good player skill wise does not mean they are not a wolf. also DT and Schmidty arguably could be left off of this list if Kwhit is not planning on playing them there again anyways:

16. Darth Vilus
7. lerriuqs
10. Schmidty
9. DaddyTorgo



So that leaves us a good selection of players that I would imagine has at least 2 wolves in it (along with perhaps 2 good roles we can say). The catch is that I'm not overly worried if we accidently get the duke, he can always move the vote elsewhere. So I think all things considered it is in our advantage to try to pick two of the following list and see where it leads us (while making sure kwhit doesn't play the players looking likely to receive a vote):


2. Telle
4. PurdueBrad
5. JAG
6. J23
8. The Jackal
11. Lathum
15. GoldenEagle
17. Mia Ow
19. LoneStarGirl

There is one problem with voting for the bench people (yeah, I'm one so I have self-interest here) and that is that none of us were judged on positional standards, we were judged on how good of a bench player we are. I wouldn't yet throw people out from there yet either, because put them in the game and they (or me!) could be big as well.

[Chief Rum]

I feel you all are going in the wrong direction here. I think if nothing else, we are making it easier to have good decisions with a lynch vote today than yesterday even.

Based on yesterday's events or at least how things played out, I am ok with us not looking at the following for a vote:


1. claphamsa
3. KWhit
12. Chief Rum
14. Alan T


Based on the scores yesterday at that position it makes sense to not have a vote on the following players so they can help us win. This is a list of people with at least 50+ at the position they played at. Keep in mind Danny had good ratings when he died, so a good player skill wise does not mean they are not a wolf. also DT and Schmidty arguably could be left off of this list if Kwhit is not planning on playing them there again anyways:

16. Darth Vilus
7. lerriuqs
10. Schmidty
9. DaddyTorgo



So that leaves us a good selection of players that I would imagine has at least 2 wolves in it (along with perhaps 2 good roles we can say). The catch is that I'm not overly worried if we accidently get the duke, he can always move the vote elsewhere. So I think all things considered it is in our advantage to try to pick two of the following list and see where it leads us (while making sure kwhit doesn't play the players looking likely to receive a vote):


2. Telle
4. PurdueBrad
5. JAG
6. J23
8. The Jackal
11. Lathum
15. GoldenEagle
17. Mia Ow
19. LoneStarGirl

I'm not against lynching someone if it comes to it. I'm just thinking it was certainly a consideration yesterday to do a No Lynch, and today, circumstances are better for it.

But I am certainly willing to consider what candidates are out there.

[claphamsa]

I am a bit suspicious of Chief. He is wish-washy yesterday with his voting tactics. He was also surprised when I jumped on the train, stating later he did not really want anyone to follow him.

Now we have this reveal, which I guess is okay. But I am not 100% trustworthy yet. I am not as gullible as Clap, I suppose.


wha?

vote Goldensparrow!

I R not GULLIBLE!

[Chief Rum]

I am a bit suspicious of Chief. He is wish-washy yesterday with his voting tactics. He was also surprised when I jumped on the train, stating later he did not really want anyone to follow him.

Now we have this reveal, which I guess is okay. But I am not 100% trustworthy yet. I am not as gullible as Clap, I suppose.

I wasn't surprised you followed, just not keen that you did it.

[Alan T]

There is one problem with voting for the bench people (yeah, I'm one so I have self-interest here) and that is that none of us were judged on positional standards, we were judged on how good of a bench player we are. I wouldn't yet throw people out from there yet either, because put them in the game and they (or me!) could be big as well.


If Kwhit is planning on playing say you or Mia Ow as a striker. You are no more or less likely of being a great striker than Mia is today. So if the group consensus was to vote you out, Kwhit can put in Mia as striker and have the same odds of finding a good one as any other player. Without affecting our performance from yesterday.

That said, you do bring up a good point, perhaps J23 could be a good candidate for two reasons.. 1) He didn't vote yesterday, and 2) we already know he is bad at one position so mathematically is that less likely to help us. (since according to pass, it was all random numbers, so just because he is bad at one position it doesn't mean he is good at another one).

I might lean towards J23 with my vote after thinking this through some.

[Schmidty]

I still hate the No Lynch idea. I seriously think that the odds of winning enough points is very low, and to let the wolves keep picking us off in the meantime without even trying to get at them and get some kind voting pattern, is folly.

But hey, that's just me. I'll think about jumping on the bandwagon if it looks like my vote won't count, but I will be a very unhappy passenger.

[claphamsa]

I still hate the No Lynch idea. I seriously think that the odds of winning enough points is very low, and to let the wolves keep picking us off in the meantime without even trying to get at them and get some kind voting pattern, is folly.

But hey, that's just me. I'll think about jumping on the bandwagon if it looks like my vote won't count, but I will be a very unhappy passenger.
FWIW they havent picked one of us off yet!

[Alan T]

Looking at the results from yesterday, I guess I wouldn't mind seeing a run off between J23 and TheJackal. Both of them scored poorly at their position in the game, thus perhaps less likely for kwhit to have a place to play them today. Plus both have other non-scoring issues to deal with, J23 missed the vote entirely yesterday while TheJackal kind of came off weird in how he responded some yesterday, I had flashbacks from when Anxiety used to be bad in WW games.

Might not be anything to that though, but either way I still think we have a better chance of success with a lynch today then yesterday as the odds have improved for us there.

[Lathum]

I still hate the No Lynch idea. I seriously think that the odds of winning enough points is very low, and to let the wolves keep picking us off in the meantime without even trying to get at them and get some kind voting pattern, is folly.

But hey, that's just me. I'll think about jumping on the bandwagon if it looks like my vote won't count, but I will be a very unhappy passenger.

I don't disagree with this but who do you think we should vote for then?

[KWhit]

It's going to get tougher to win games as our numbers dwindle. That is going to happen anyway due to wolf night kills. I just don't want to make that happen any faster by lynching players.

I think time is on our side - we still have a seer. We still have a full squad of players. I'm learning more every game about who's good at which position...

Basically, the longer we can keep the game going, the better it is for us. That is why we should go with a No Lynch vote today.

[GoldenEagle]

To be honest, I think we are concentrating a bit too much on winning games. It is not likely that we are going get enough points to win in that manner. Therefore, I am in the lynching corner. But we have to be careful who we lynch as they might have a role that could help us out.

I suggest we go with one of AlanT's suggestions, and TheJackal seems like the easy choice.

VOTE The Jackal

[KWhit]

To be honest, I think we are concentrating a bit too much on winning games. It is not likely that we are going get enough points to win in that manner. Therefore, I am in the lynching corner. But we have to be careful who we lynch as they might have a role that could help us out.

I suggest we go with one of AlanT's suggestions, and TheJackal seems like the easy choice.

VOTE The Jackal

Why do you say that?

[JAG]

Alan, a couple things:

1. LSG should not be a consideration to lynch at this point because her average score is very high, so she's likely to do well wherever we put her. She should be in your group of 'good players so don't look there for a lynch'.

2. If you're going to go by score as a determination of people to lynch, looking to the bench for a player with a low average is superior mathematically than killing someone that played in the field because we know GE for example only averages 43 points per position. It's possible J23 had a 14 rating at the position he played at but 75+ across the board. Once they get a chance on the bench, we'll be able to figure out what KWhit can average putting them somewhere else. So using J23 as an example, if he turns out to have a 53 average on the bench, putting him on the field should yield us:

(5x + 14) / 6 = 53
5x + 14 = 318
5x = 304
x = 60.8 at any of the other 5 positions

Of course if people end up with worse averages, they would be potential lynch targets. Again, this all assumes everything else is equal. Obviously if we have reason to believe someone is a wolf, all bets may be off.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:


Chief Rum 1 -- LoneStarGirl (387)
No Lynch 3 -- Kwhit (423) Chief Rum (425) PurdueBrad (430)
GoldenEagle 1 -- claphamsa (433)
The Jackal 1 -- GoldenEagle (441)

[JAG]

our average score for this upcoming game should be 746 points, 54 points short of a win. However there are other considerations that might keep wolves from going with optimal strategy (i.e. Darth might be a wolf, they might choose not to go after Alan because they know he's not the seer, they might be afraid of another BG block). If that's the case, we only need a little favorable luck to get a win today.

Just quoting this from my earlier calculations for the players claiming that they don't think we can win. Today KWhit only needs a little luck in order for us to win, but with an average performance and assuming the wolves are able to kill off one of our top performers, we should be able to improve our score from yesterday by a little over 100 points.

[Alan T]

Alan, a couple things:

1. LSG should not be a consideration to lynch at this point because her average score is very high, so she's likely to do well wherever we put her. She should be in your group of 'good players so don't look there for a lynch'.



I think this point makes sense. LSG has a great average, and I'm guessing Kwhit is going to try to plug her in somewhere this game. So probably can put LSG on the I wouldn't vote for her list as well.


The other bench players all had averages that were mediocre at best, so I don't know that really convinces me to change my mind any on them. Even if they had one good score, you would spend a week trying to find the right position possibly.

I think in the end though we got lucky yesterday more than anything else. I don't expect to go another night without a kill.

[Chief Rum]

FWIW, we don't have averages for the starters, so it's possible that the bench players are actually not too bad.

[J23]

That said, you do bring up a good point, perhaps J23 could be a good candidate for two reasons.. 1) He didn't vote yesterday, and 2) we already know he is bad at one position so mathematically is that less likely to help us. (since according to pass, it was all random numbers, so just because he is bad at one position it doesn't mean he is good at another one).

I might lean towards J23 with my vote after thinking this through some.

I apologized for no vote yesterday, but I did warn folks beforehand that the deadline could be problematic for me. Work has been hectic, and I didn't log in at all yesterday until after 6pm EST. If you still want to hold it against me and vote for me because of it, I guess that is up to you.

As far as score goes, yeah, mine sucked as striker. That doesn't have any bearing on my other positions however. If we're voting the people with the lowest scores, wouldn't GoldenEagle be a better choice since he has the lowest known average score? (That is what the bench score is, correct?)

For now, I'm going to vote no lynch. I'm not sure we really need to kill anyone to win games and thus, the game.

[JAG]

I think this point makes sense. LSG has a great average, and I'm guessing Kwhit is going to try to plug her in somewhere this game. So probably can put LSG on the I wouldn't vote for her list as well.


The other bench players all had averages that were mediocre at best, so I don't know that really convinces me to change my mind any on them. Even if they had one good score, you would spend a week trying to find the right position possibly.

I think in the end though we got lucky yesterday more than anything else. I don't expect to go another night without a kill.

Alan, that was my point 2, that if we want to go by scores, we should look at those with low scores on the bench because there were a number with an average below 50. If the players who sucked on the field come back with an average of 30 or so on the bench, they would be first to go from a mathematics standpoint.

I think the choice comes down to what option gives us the best chance of winning, playing a regular game of WW or trying to use the game mechanism before switching to regular WW (unless we can win outright by playing the game). If we lynch today and tomorrow, we will have 12 players left (assuming the wolves get two NK's in). After that, we would need 72 points across each starter position to win a game, which seems unlikely.

[Lathum]

gotta get a vote in

Vote GoldenEagle

mostly a gut feeling here

[Alan T]

I'm not opposed to a vote for Goldeneagle. He's on my list of folks I'd consider voting for. I don't think I'll vote there today myself though.

[Passacaglia]

I apologized for no vote yesterday, but I did warn folks beforehand that the deadline could be problematic for me. Work has been hectic, and I didn't log in at all yesterday until after 6pm EST. If you still want to hold it against me and vote for me because of it, I guess that is up to you.

As far as score goes, yeah, mine sucked as striker. That doesn't have any bearing on my other positions however. If we're voting the people with the lowest scores, wouldn't GoldenEagle be a better choice since he has the lowest known average score? (That is what the bench score is, correct?)

For now, I'm going to vote no lynch. I'm not sure we really need to kill anyone to win games and thus, the game.

I'm NOT going to count this vote. I just this morning asked people to put their vote on its own line.

[JAG]

FWIW, we don't have averages for the starters, so it's possible that the bench players are actually not too bad.

Right, but since we don't have the information we would assume they would average 50 points as the numbers were random. We already know some players who are below that. Tomorrow we'll be able to make an even better judgment.

[Alan T]

If we lynch today and tomorrow, we will have 12 players left (assuming the wolves get two NK's in). After that, we would need 72 points across each starter position to win a game, which seems unlikely.

My problem is if we try to play it both ways, we'll likely lose both. Lets say we don't lynch the next two days and the wolves do kill the next four days, it means we'll have two free days for soccer right?

I am realistically thinking winning 2 of those 4 games is best case, and we still would not be at the 10 points needed even with best case. At that point it would seem very unlikely to win again, the wolves can give us -2 sanction points to keep us further away and we then will be against the wall needing to at that point find the wolves without any vote history to go on at all.

That then means the entire game would depend on if our seer stays alive that long AND finds a wolf during that time? We don't know if the wolves have some kind of seer hunter role either or anything else that could decrease our odds right? What would we do in 2-3 days if we end up with our best scorer turning up to being a wolf? We need them to try to get the wins, but we need to kill him as well.

I think we have to just play this like WW and not let the side show distract us too much. We can have lynches in a way that it will cause the least harm to our team from a numbers standpoint by not voting for the highest scorers at least for now.

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:


Chief Rum 1 -- LoneStarGirl (387)
No Lynch 3 -- Kwhit (423) Chief Rum (425) PurdueBrad (430)
GoldenEagle 2 -- claphamsa (433) Lathum (450)
The Jackal 1 -- GoldenEagle (441)

[JAG]

I am realistically thinking winning 2 of those 4 games is best case, and we still would not be at the 10 points needed even with best case.

I'm still mulling over the rest of your post, but this isn't accurate. A win is 3 points, we got a tie yesterday which is worth 1, so we need 3 wins to win the game.

At that point it would seem very unlikely to win again, the wolves can give us -2 sanction points to keep us further away

But then they aren't killing villagers, so it somewhat makes up for the villagers that were killed earlier. If we have a winning team, they can't keep giving us -2 points because the amount of players on the team won't change, KWhit will keep the lineup the same, and we'll still be getting 3 points per game. You're still correct about the lost voting history though.

[J23]

I'm NOT going to count this vote. I just this morning asked people to put their vote on its own line.

Sorry Pass, my bad.

vote no lynch

I'm still trying to figure out if lynching is a better option, but in case I get pulled away, I'm sticking with not lynching for today.

[Passacaglia]

No problem! New vote count:


Chief Rum 1 -- LoneStarGirl (387)
No Lynch 4 -- Kwhit (423) Chief Rum (425) PurdueBrad (430) J23 (457)
GoldenEagle 2 -- claphamsa (433) Lathum (450)
The Jackal 1 -- GoldenEagle (441)

[GoldenEagle]

Why do you say that?

It is just going to be tough for us to get the 800 points three times, IMO. The wolves will probably start picking off our best players and they can also hit us the point deduction if we get close. So, essentially we would need to win four matches.

I just don't want us to get caught up in the whole he/she is a good player so we can't lynch them. We might get lucky and have one of our best players be the seer (or unlucky if the wolves get to him) or one of our best players might be a wolf and gets a free pass because of his/her skills.

The math adding up for us to get four wins is not probable, IMO. We need to play this like a regular WW game and consider it lucky if we get the 10 points to win the league.

[Schmidty]

I think we have to just play this like WW and not let the side show distract us too much. We can have lynches in a way that it will cause the least harm to our team from a numbers standpoint by not voting for the highest scorers at least for now.

I agree, but at the same time, if one of the high scorers is a wolf, he or she would be as safe as can be to do whatever they want.

[GoldenEagle]

gotta get a vote in

Vote GoldenEagle

mostly a gut feeling here

Your gut would be wrong. I would invite the seer to scan me tonight (I have a feeling I might be on the block soon) but that would be a waste of a scan. Plus it might out the seer, which would be no good for us of course.

[JAG]

lol, sorry Alan, I failed at reading comprehension...you think we realistically can only win 2 of the next 4 games and yes, that would not be enough to get us to 10.

[Alan T]

I'm still mulling over the rest of your post, but this isn't accurate. A win is 3 points, we got a tie yesterday which is worth 1, so we need 3 wins to win the game.


I don't understand how my statement is not accurate? We have 1 point now. If we win 2 of the next 4 games, that would be a total of 7 points. 2 additional ties and that is 9 points, so short of the 10 points needed.

I think anyone assuming we'll win 3 of the 4 or all four of our next games is overly optimistic to the case of suspiciously optimistic.

[Schmidty]

Ok, I don't want a no lynch, so I'm going to vote for the person with the most votes thus far. If things change, I'm willing to look at it again.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

(I also kind of got a weird vibe from him, like Lathum said. He's been hilarious and entertaining, but I almost felt like that could have been a distraction to make everyone look at him in a softer light. I hope that doesn't make people not want to roleplay though. :) )

[Chief Rum]

My problem is if we try to play it both ways, we'll likely lose both. Lets say we don't lynch the next two days and the wolves do kill the next four days, it means we'll have two free days for soccer right?

I'm not against switching to a lynch, but I wanted to point this out.

This is the second time in the last two days that a "Lynch supporter" has used more than one day of No Lynches as their baseline for an argument against it, never mind the almost certain likelihood that no one thinks more than one day of No Lynch is a good idea.

Yesterday, Lathum did it, and took it out to four days, and that led me to considering him for a vote for an illogical argument (hyperbole). Alan, you're in the clear, but starting from that baseline argument is just as bad.

If I'm going to switch to a Lynch, it's not going to be because of arguments that include anything about more than one day of "No Lynches". I don't think that will ever be considered. When I hear a convincing argument that even one day of No Lynch hurts us in this case, that is the argument I wil consider.

[Alan T]

I think it is pointless to have player vs no lynch again. It is a tool wolves can use to hide, especially if the one player is a good guy like yesterday. I don't think Chief is a good target for a vote today, so will vote for the only other person with a vote that also fits in the list of people I don't mind voting for in hopes that we have a good two person race from it to apply pressure on who people vote for.


Vote TheJackal

[The Jackal]

I still don't think no lynch is the way to go.

Even if KWhit makes good decisions in player replacements (as I'm sure I'll be on the bench, but that doesn't mean switching people around will absolutely end in a better result) - we should treat this like normal WW.

At the very least we can have some competition between no lynch and someone who has pinged a few radars:

Vote GE

[Alan T]

I'm not against switching to a lynch, but I wanted to point this out.

This is the second time in the last two days that a "Lynch supporter" has used more than one day of No Lynches as their baseline for an argument against it, never mind the almost certain likelihood that no one thinks more than one day of No Lynch is a good idea.

Yesterday, Lathum did it, and took it out to four days, and that led me to considering him for a vote for an illogical argument (hyperbole). Alan, you're in the clear, but starting from that baseline argument is just as bad.

If I'm going to switch to a Lynch, it's not going to be because of arguments that include anything about more than one day of "No Lynches". I don't think that will ever be considered. When I hear a convincing argument that even one day of No Lynch hurts us in this case, that is the argument I wil consider.


Don't look at me. JAG was the one suggesting 2 days play with lynches equaling a certain score. I was giving the same example with the 4 days if we had no lynches to show why his argument was bad.

Not sure why you are singling me out when I'm just replying back.

[GoldenEagle]

(I also kind of got a weird vibe from him, like Lathum said. He's been hilarious and entertaining, but I almost felt like that could have been a distraction to make everyone look at him in a softer light. I hope that doesn't make people not want to roleplay though. :) )

You are the master of roleplaying because of the Hulk character. :)

[Lathum]

Yesterday, Lathum did it, and took it out to four days, and that led me to considering him for a vote for an illogical argument (hyperbole). Alan, you're in the clear, but starting from that baseline argument is just as bad.


now see, this is just flat out incorrect.

I took it to 4 days because Jag made a comment about getting down to 15 players before we lynch, which would be 4 days ( actually 3 since I mistakenly counted KWhit). So explain to me how my statement was incorrect or illogical?

[Passacaglia]

Vote count:


Chief Rum 1 -- LoneStarGirl (387)
No Lynch 4 -- Kwhit (423) Chief Rum (425) PurdueBrad (430) J23 (457)
GoldenEagle 4 -- claphamsa (433) Lathum (450) Schmidty (464) The Jackal (467)
The Jackal 2 -- GoldenEagle (441) Alan T (466)

[JAG]

Alright, I'm going to lynch. Going to take a look back through the post first though.

[GoldenEagle]

I think it is pointless to have player vs no lynch again. It is a tool wolves can use to hide, especially if the one player is a good guy like yesterday. I don't think Chief is a good target for a vote today, so will vote for the only other person with a vote that also fits in the list of people I don't mind voting for in hopes that we have a good two person race from it to apply pressure on who people vote for.


Vote TheJackal

I think we owe it to AlanT at this time to give him another shot at picking of a wolf. He could very well be in the zone right now. I know it is not much to go off of, but its our best shot.

The wolves are likely trying to influence us to do a no lynch. The more players we have, the more combinations we have to comb through to find a winning side. The wolves are laughing at us right now for wanting to vote a no lynch.

[Lathum]

At that later point, we can start lynching, but with superior odds (if there are 4 wolves for example, 4 out of 11 chance instead of 4 out of 14 chance) and more information about player skills. All things being equal, why would we kill our superstar goalie? How do you know today's lynch won't kill that person?
.

Dola- my comments were based off this suggestion by Jag that we get down to 15 players before lynching, or 4 night kills ( I later admitted I was wrong in counting KWhit). So please get your facts straight before putting words in my mouth CR.

[GoldenEagle]

I still don't think no lynch is the way to go.

Even if KWhit makes good decisions in player replacements (as I'm sure I'll be on the bench, but that doesn't mean switching people around will absolutely end in a better result) - we should treat this like normal WW.

At the very least we can have some competition between no lynch and someone who has pinged a few radars:

Vote GE

Mate, it is obvious your a poor footballer and also a poor lack of character judgment. The goal that you let in yesterday was shite, mate. No offense, but I could have saved that bent over backwards with my eyes closed, yea?

[Lathum]

Time to go pick up the folks from the airport so my vote stands.

What are we doing about weekend play?

[Schmidty]

You are the master of roleplaying because of the Hulk character. :)

Why thank you. I think that's pretty much the only meaningful contribution to WW. I'm the WW equivalent of a one-hit-wonder that everyone still listens to for some reason. :)

[Passacaglia]

Next deadline will be 2 Central, Monday.

[claphamsa]

Why thank you. I think that's pretty much the only meaningful contribution to WW. I'm the WW equivalent of a one-hit-wonder that everyone still listens to for some reason. :)

are you cold as ice?

[Passacaglia]

Foreigner was not a one-hit wonder, fool!

[claphamsa]

Foreigner was not a one-hit wonder, fool!
i was thinking the vanilla kind! one of his albums was cold as ice!

[Schmidty]

are you cold as ice?

No, but I'm walkin' on sunshine!!!!

[J23]

I think it is pointless to have player vs no lynch again. It is a tool wolves can use to hide, especially if the one player is a good guy like yesterday. I don't think Chief is a good target for a vote today, so will vote for the only other person with a vote that also fits in the list of people I don't mind voting for in hopes that we have a good two person race from it to apply pressure on who people vote for.


Alan,
Why do you think the Jackal is a better target for a vote today? Given the back and forth this afternoon, I'd almost lean to the opposite.

[Alan T]

I think we owe it to AlanT at this time to give him another shot at picking of a wolf. He could very well be in the zone right now. I know it is not much to go off of, but its our best shot.

The wolves are likely trying to influence us to do a no lynch. The more players we have, the more combinations we have to comb through to find a winning side. The wolves are laughing at us right now for wanting to vote a no lynch.


Don't use me to protect yourself. I already said I was ok with you as a vote today too. :)

[KWhit]

I think we owe it to AlanT at this time to give him another shot at picking of a wolf. He could very well be in the zone right now. I know it is not much to go off of, but its our best shot.

The wolves are likely trying to influence us to do a no lynch. The more players we have, the more combinations we have to comb through to find a winning side. The wolves are laughing at us right now for wanting to vote a no lynch.

You have been pinging my wolfdar all game, but this doesn't make sense at all. The wolves will be wanting us to lynch a villager. The only way they'd be pushing for a no lynch is if we had a consensus on one lynch candidate who was a wolf and versus a no lynch vote. And since we haven't had any real consensus on a lynch candidate today, I don't believe they are the ones pushing for no lynch right now.

The wolves are in a position to take out a villager through a lynch today and then a kill tonight.

[Alan T]

Alan,
Why do you think the Jackal is a better target for a vote today? Given the back and forth this afternoon, I'd almost lean to the opposite.


I said earlier today that after considering my options I wanted to see you vs TheJackal as votes. The reason I voted him over you was that he already had a vote.

Of course when I said that earlier, Goldeneagle already had a vote and he immediately jumped on thejackal almost as if he was protecting you.

So right now I likely would feel better about a vote for you over anyone else. But that is just my gut talking again more than anything else.

[JAG]

Question Alan, if you feel like a wolf or wolves are using No Lynch to hide, why did you not turn your sights towards those who voted that way yesterday (admittedly that included me until the last minute)?

[Alan T]

Question Alan, if you feel like a wolf or wolves are using No Lynch to hide, why did you not turn your sights towards those who voted that way yesterday (admittedly that included me until the last minute)?


I already said yesterday that I felt with the vote being forced as a MartinD vs no lynch, it allowed the wolves to not have to go anywhere and they likely were able to spread their votes out wherever they wanted. Since I also feel Claphamsa is likely more good than bad right now (at least leaning that way), he was the only other candidate seriously getting votes.

Because of no real Vote discussion yesterday, wolves never had to commit anywhere.

[Darth Vilus]

I still say we try to track down wolves. All things considered, I'm going to

Vote GoldenEagle

His actions see iffy to me and his average was low enough that my vote should satisfy those "no lynch"ers out there. That's my take.

and on a side not what do WWIW and COT stand for?

[JAG]

I just haven't found myself agreeing with GE's take on almost anything this game so I guess I'll vote his way.

VOTE GOLDENEAGLE

[Schmidty]

I said earlier today that after considering my options I wanted to see you vs TheJackal as votes. The reason I voted him over you was that he already had a vote.

Of course when I said that earlier, Goldeneagle already had a vote and he immediately jumped on thejackal almost as if he was protecting you.

So right now I likely would feel better about a vote for you over anyone else. But that is just my gut talking again more than anything else.

But as you see, GE is leading and if things turn out as appear to be, you're throwing your vote away if you don't want a no lynch.

I don't get it.

[claphamsa]

the run away is disappointing! but its better than no lynch.

[hoopsguy]

COT = Circle of Trust. Players that are 100% cleared or so close to that level that you are willing to make further decisions on the assumption that they are good guys.

[GoldenEagle]

You have been pinging my wolfdar all game, but this doesn't make sense at all. The wolves will be wanting us to lynch a villager. The only way they'd be pushing for a no lynch is if we had a consensus on one lynch candidate who was a wolf and versus a no lynch vote. And since we haven't had any real consensus on a lynch candidate today, I don't believe they are the ones pushing for no lynch right now.

The wolves are in a position to take out a villager through a lynch today and then a kill tonight.

Of course, the wolves would like for us to lynch a villager, esp. a villager with an important role.

[Schmidty]

Of course, the wolves would like for us to lynch a villager, esp. a villager with an important role.

So do you have something to share? You only have 27 minutes. I'd get talkin' there bub.

[JAG]

I already said yesterday that I felt with the vote being forced as a MartinD vs no lynch, it allowed the wolves to not have to go anywhere and they likely were able to spread their votes out wherever they wanted. Since I also feel Claphamsa is likely more good than bad right now (at least leaning that way), he was the only other candidate seriously getting votes.

Because of no real Vote discussion yesterday, wolves never had to commit anywhere.

That and that there wasn't a wolf on the line and with the no lynch votes there's 50% less chance of there being a wolf out there, ok I get you. Sorry, I haven't played a lot of WW so what should be obvious is still a learning process for me. Well from this point on we should completely forget about no lynch votes unless we get a surprising victory by a decent margin.

[GoldenEagle]

So do you have something to share? You only have 27 minutes. I'd get talkin' there bub.

I am just going to say that I am a villager. I may not be much of a footballer (we will never know, as I will probably never get to set foot on the pitch), but I am not a wolf.

[KWhit]

I'm going to submit my lineup now.

[GoldenEagle]

Gaffer,

I think now may be a good time to turn in that transfer request. It seems some of my teammates are delirious.

[claphamsa]

play me coach!