WW 103? - 42 Attempts (Game Over - Conspirators Win)

[EagleFan]

Another day of debate and yet another suspect emerges. The one known as bulletsponge has been accused of being a conspirator. Though some feel that he may not be the best choice there are enough of you that feel he is the only choice.

The firing squad is convened. He begins to run but is quickly tackled and cuffed. He is marched against the wall.

Ready!

Aim!!

Fire!!!

He drops to the ground. Hitler looks pleased. Today we will prove to the conspiracy the price of betrayal.

You search bulletsponge but find nothing. He has received several medals and has dedicated his life to seeing to it that Hitler's vision comes true.

He was another loyal Nazi.

Many begin to wonder if there is a conspiracy after all.

Is Hitler just getting paranoid?

No-one dares to say that outloud as they keep their thoughts to themselves.

[Abe Sargent]

come on.....no whammy

[Abe Sargent]

Damn!

[Danny]

I think we really have to go towards NTN now barring a scan reveal.

[Danny]

I wish I had unvoted before Lathum switched.

[EagleFan]

Night results to come...

[Autumn]

No good, no good. Hopefully the voting history here will tell us something.

[JAG]

meh

[EagleFan]

A blast is heard as it rocks Berlin.

Devistation is everyone. Confusion turns to panic. What happened? Who did this? Were there any casualties? Were there any survivors?

...

[Autumn]

oh crap

[Abe Sargent]

Less footsie and more pokin'!

[Autumn]

OH wait, Berlin. That's where I am. Yikes.

[KWhit]

Here are the locations, FYI:

Day/Night Three Locations:

Berlin:
Autumn
J23
PurdueBrad
Abe Sargent
KWhit
Chief Rum
JAG

Wolfsschanze:
Lathum
The Jackal

Berchtesgaden:
Schmidty
Danny
ntndeacon
Telle
bulletsponge

[Schmidty]

WTF?

[Danny]

I think it killed EF.

[Lathum]

I think it killed EF.

lol

[EagleFan]

As you sort through the rubble you see three bodies. As you approach the bodies you see that they are still alive, but barely.

You rush them to the hospital.

They are:

KWhit
Autumn
Abe Sargent


You do not see any clue as to their true identity at this time.

They are in no shape to speak, or do much of anything. You can only hope they survive and that maybe you can find out who did this and why.

[Danny]

Are they silenced from the thread for now?

[Schmidty]

Well, at least they're not dead, and whoever did it failed.

[bulletsponge]

Brains

[JAG]

Well, at least they're not dead, and whoever did it failed.

ahem:

1. You can only hope they survive isn't a rousing endorsement of their chances of survival.
2. There were four other people there not mentioned (yet).

[Danny]

Was that the whole night result?

[Schmidty]

ahem:

1. isn't a rousing endorsement of their chances of survival.
2. There were four other people there not mentioned (yet).

Ohhhh.

Shit.

[Danny]

Noticed since then there have been no posts from any of those three.

[JAG]

Also if those three are villagers and they aren't able to vote tomorrow, we might be screwed.

[Danny]

Remmber that this was likely done by the non PM right wolf. It doesn't say whether this person knew who the other wolves were or not.

[Lathum]

EF, can we get confirmation that there was no night kill?

[EagleFan]

As you try to sleep through the night, after a very rough evening you hear another single shot.

This one sounded ominous. It sounded like a sniper rifle.

You search to find the answers of what happened and find JAG. He has been killed by a single shot.

He was a loyal Nazi.

[Lathum]

I have a theory, but I am waiting for EF to reply to my question

[EagleFan]

Sorry, had a bunch of PM's to send out before posting these results.

[Lathum]

well there goes that idea

[Danny]

Damn, though it wasn't Hitler or the seer.

[JAG]

Good luck villagers.

[Schmidty]

Ok, this is good....and bad. The chance of getting Hitler is going up. we need to get things going soon, or we're toast.

[Danny]

so it's 12 players, so we're looking at 8-4 likely depending on the result of that explosion.

[Danny]

Final Day One Vote

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl 1 - JAG (193)

No vote: KWhit

[Danny]

I'd be very surprised if one wolf was not on CR. I think we have to vote NTN here today.

[Danny]

Votes as of post #522:

7 - Darth Vilus - PurdueBrad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476)
1 - ntndeacon - Lathum (432)
6 - Chief Rum - Darth vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (437), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Yet to vote: J23

[Danny]

Also, it was not a wolf decision to limit the CR voters. All of them were either lynched, cleared, duked or removed because of the PM mistake.

[Danny]

I will also not again that Kwhit, Abe and Autumn are in thread and have said nohing, so I am guessing they are not allowed to post.

[Danny]

Vote Ntndeacon

Since there is the potential for a lot of villagers to be removed from this next vote, I think we need early action to take the power out of the wolves hands.

[Lathum]

this would be my guess as well

[EagleFan]

Investigation Launched:

Göring has initiated an investigation into the Berlin bomb blast. Results during the next day/night phase.

[PurdueBrad]

Hey guys, thanks for all the well-wishes. Sorry about the brusque not before, I'm pretty bummed out right now.

Anyway, glad I survived whatever happened at Berlin, glad the other three seem to be surviving as well.

I see the rationale of voting ntn but will take some time to consider it before placing it.

[PurdueBrad]

above should say note, not "not"

[hoopsguy]

Hey guys, thanks for all the well-wishes. Sorry about the brusque not before, I'm pretty bummed out right now.

Anyway, glad I survived whatever happened at Berlin, glad the other three seem to be surviving as well.

I see the rationale of voting ntn but will take some time to consider it before placing it.

Sorry to hear about the sports injury. I sustained one about three weeks ago as well, ending my outdoor soccer season (fractured thumb). Schmidty will be happy to know that I got Vicodin prescribed post-surgery.

[PurdueBrad]

Sorry to hear that Hoops, good luck with your injury!

[J23]

Just got in. I recieved no additional info on the bomb blast at the location I was at fyi.


Votes as of post #522:

7 - Darth Vilus - PurdueBrad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476)
1 - ntndeacon - Lathum (432)
6 - Chief Rum - Darth vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (437), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Yet to vote: J23

I ended up voting DV before deadline on that vote.

[J23]

Day 2 Locations:

Berlin
Lathum
The Jackal
Schmidty
Danny
GoldenEagle
Autumn
J23
Darth Vilus

Berchtesgaden
PurdueBrad
Abe Sargent
Chief Rum
JAG
ntndeacon
KWhit
Telle
bulletsponge


Wolfsschanze
n/a


Day 3 Locations:

Berlin:
Autumn
J23
PurdueBrad
Abe Sargent
KWhit
Chief Rum
JAG

Wolfsschanze:
Lathum
The Jackal

Berchtesgaden:
Schmidty
Danny
ntndeacon
Telle
bulletsponge


Claus Philipp Maria Schenk Graf von Stauffenberg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claus_von_Stauffenberg) - Stauffenberg will have the ability to make a one time attempt on Hitler during one of the meeting events though if it is not successful Hitler will gain an ability to order an investigation of the incident in which there is a good chance that he will be discovered and executed. The chance of success will be determined by the following factors: if he is invited to the meeting and the number of conspirators that are attending the meeting (the more conspirators he more help he will have in making it successful, Elser's attendance counts towards this goal)

This looks to be the guy that started that judging by the investigation that followed.

[ntndeacon]

There is a bit of good news with the attempt,,,(assuming Hitler survives) of that happens the cunning wolf loses the cunning part.

[Darth Vilus]

shouldve let me live

[J23]

Of course that person would have to be re-scanned after tonight to matter, right?

[ntndeacon]

yes they would J23 but at least we would have thaty one vulnerable

[Danny]

Based on the bomb location and the way the power works, it means a couple things.

#1 helps the wolves, but I am sure they know already, Hitler was in Berlin.

#2, the wolf who set the bomb off had no way of knowing who else would be with Hitler so there very well could be a wolf or wolves in the group that got hurt or in Berlin in general.

[ntndeacon]

umm Danny, How would they know where Hitler would be based on bomb location. Wouldn't that bomb have to have been placed on the 1st day? How would they have ANY clue who was going to be where.
Now the second point I agree with. It is quite possible that wolves got hurt or at least were in Berlin.

[ntndeacon]

In fact iwill go further. Weren't we all in Berlin on day one? If so, then Berlin was the only place that bomb could of happened.

[J23]

Ntn-
I think the other bomb guy is the one that sets it two days in advance, which would mean it would go off tonight (at the soonest) wherever they were the first night if I'm not mistaken.

Danny-
1. I missed the fact that Hitler had to have been there. Good catch.
2. I think the wolves would have seen the attendence list before they submitted that they wanted to use the bomb. The attendence list was out there a good bit before deadline after all. From looking at the descriptions, I'm pretty sure this is Stauffenberg (as I listed a few posts back) rather than Elser(who sets the bomb in advance). There is nothing in the description that says he has to be in attendence to use the bomb, however, it does say the success depends on the number of conspirators at the meeting. Since it blew up a few people (though apparently not fatally?), I think we can assume that we have at least 1 wolf, but probably not more than 2, or I think the result would have likely been worse.

[The Jackal]

I see no reason to move away from this.

VOTE NTN

[The Jackal]

I will do my best to be here tonight so you can't try and get me lynched at the last moment, Autumn. :)

[Lathum]

I have a big test today and won't be home until about 5 EST. I will likely hold off my vote until then. I think today is a really important vote and want a chance to delve in to the voting records, etc...

[Chief Rum]

Danny-
1. I missed the fact that Hitler had to have been there. Good catch.

I am still missing it. Can someone point me out how we know Hitler was in Berlin?

[The Jackal]

I am still missing it. Can someone point me out how we know Hitler was in Berlin?

I also missed how we know this for certain. Elser's role has a two night delay, so there's no way he can be positive of Hitler being where it will go off. Stauffenberg's bomb can go off during a meeting, so presumably he would know if he and Hitler were in a meeting together, perhaps that's what Danny is pointing to?

Stauffenberg's extended role does say that Hitler will have a chance to investigate the details after the assassination attempt, a note that is not in Elser's role.

[The Jackal]

dola

I said Stauffenberg's bomb - it doesn't indicate in his role what the kill attempt actually is, but I guess we are assuming it is also an explosive device.

[The Jackal]

So that would make sense, since there is an investigation, that it was Stauffenberg's attempt and he would likely be informed that he and Hitler were in a meeting together prior to the meeting taking place. The fact that the attempt failed may be of importance later when trying to figure out how many conspirators were there.

[J23]

What I think Danny caught that I didn't at first was:

"Stauffenberg will have the ability to make a one time attempt on Hitler during one of the meeting events"

This specifically mentions the attempt is on Hitler, not a location.

[J23]

Btw, can someone please tell me what "dola" means? I see it thrown around fairly often in these forums.

[Lathum]

Btw, can someone please tell me what "dola" means? I see it thrown around fairly often in these forums.

there used to be a posted names Dolamite who would post 3-4 times in a row instead of all in one post to pad his post count.

[The Jackal]

So, we've got 12 people left, 3 of which are in the ICU. Looks like there are 3 conspirators plus the convert (though there hasn't been a missed NK that could've been a convert, so presumably he's still a Nazi). If the Seer has anyone I'd say they should come out soon. Waiting another day might be advisable, but if we screw up another lynch we're going to be in serious trouble.

[The Jackal]

Btw, can someone please tell me what "dola" means? I see it thrown around fairly often in these forums.

Used to indicate an add-on to a previous post, especially since we can't edit posts.

[ntndeacon]

Ok I see the error of my ways in terms of it being Stauffenberg rather than the other guy. We need to find at least one more suspect if not two to look at today.

[Chief Rum]

Yes, good catch there, Danny. The fact that Hitler started an investigation should have clued us in.

Also, not that anyone thought this, but it seems likely Hitler is not one of the three who were hurt. I would assume if he were, he could not launch an investigation.

[The Jackal]

It is fair to speculate about that, CR, but I wouldn't set it in stone. He could have ordered the investigation from an ICU bed, who knows.

[ntndeacon]

Ok I have one final question about the bombing. If it was Stauffenberg, why did it not go off during the meeting instead of the end of the day?

[The Jackal]

Ok I have one final question about the bombing. If it was Stauffenberg, why did it not go off during the meeting instead of the end of the day?

Yeah, it did go off at the end of the day, didn't it? My timeline is a little off since I was out of the game all of yesterday. That would suggest it was Elser's device, maybe EF left the investigation out of that role? Donno.

[ntndeacon]

I guess part of my questioning was based on the assumption we all started out in Berling before the Fuhrer told us where to go. That may be an incorrect assumption obviously. And certainly if it was Stauffenberg, we wont have as much to worry about, since he can only try once... (I think) And might even be executed.

[J23]

I didn't see any meeting happen yesterday unless I'm missing something obvious (nothing between 7pm and deadline that I saw at least). I assume that the meetings don't necessarily happen every night, or even more than once for that matter. If that's the case, there still need to be opportunities for the conspirators to use their abilities, which is why I assume we still have locations we're stationed at for the day.

Perhaps I'm making assumptions that I shouldn't, but they seem logical, at least to me.

[The Jackal]

That's right, there wasn't an official meeting yesterday was there. I think that should suggest this was Elser's attack that was set to go off two nights ago, shouldn't it? Correct me if we're wrong here, Danny.

[The Jackal]

I've been going off the investigation since that was specifically mentioned in Stauffenberg's role, but maybe that's misguided. But Danny seemed very sure of it.

[ntndeacon]

Meetings happen every three days

[The Jackal]

I think I was reading into other people's comments more than actually looking at Danny's, I just went back, did he even suggest it was Stauffenberg? He just said it suggested Hitler was present. But I don't know how you can come to that conclusion either.

[ntndeacon]

And there was a meeting but it happened earlier in the day. the Staffenberg still might be right, I am trying to explore other possibilities. I think if it is Stauffenberg then we have our first wolf and he will be executed.(a little optimism is a wonderful thing)

[The Jackal]

From what I can see, this was Elser's attempt, which means he started the bomb on night 1 and it went off on night 3, hasn't killed anyone (yet), and that Stauffenberg will probably try to use his ability at the next meeting if he is present, so hopefully we can kill off Stauffenberg before then.

[The Jackal]

There is nothing that says Stauffenberg's ability is a bomb. From the role description it even seems like it would probably be more of a direct hit on Hitler, perhaps a gun.

[ntndeacon]

the only reason we can come to the conclusion that Hitler was there is if it was Staffenberg's attempt.

[The Jackal]

Whatever the case, we still have voting to focus on. Who would you bring up as candidates, NTN, assuming you aren't a wolf yourself?

[ntndeacon]

From what I can see, this was Elser's attempt, which means he started the bomb on night 1 and it went off on night 3, hasn't killed anyone (yet), and that Stauffenberg will probably try to use his ability at the next meeting if he is present, so hopefully we can kill off Stauffenberg before then.

The only bad thing if it isn't Stauffenberg, then we still have a cunning wolf out there.

[The Jackal]

The only bad thing if it isn't Stauffenberg, then we still have a cunning wolf out there.

I am working under the assumption that this is true.

[ntndeacon]

Whatever the case, we still have voting to focus on. Who would you bring up as candidates, NTN, assuming you aren't a wolf yourself?

Well since we have had so much luck so far with our targets, maybe we need to bring folks like Schimdty and PB under the microscope a little and see what shakes out. (btw I used those names as I think they have had the least amount of pressure put on them. )

[The Jackal]

Speaking of PB, sorry to hear what happened. Hope you recover quickly.

[J23]

Johann Georg Elser (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georg_Elser) - A carpenter who is very good with his hands and detests the iron fisted rule of the Nazis and what he fears them to be. He has a one time ability to craft an explosive device which may (or may not) cause havoc with the Nazi party. When he decides to plant the bomb it will not go off for two nights (if he sets it on day/night one it will not go off until day/night three). There is no stopping his attack once it has begun and will still detonate if he is killed prior to the event. The device is set when he gives the order. He acts alone and does not have any affiliation with the Nazi party and thus not with the other conspirators. He wins with the conspiracy though he does not have PM rights.

Claus Philipp Maria Schenk Graf von Stauffenberg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claus_von_Stauffenberg) - Famous for his role in the assassination attempt know primarily in Germany as the 20 July Plot, though more commonly known as Operation Valkyrie (though that was actually a German conditional plan in the event that the government could not function for any number of reasons. Stauffenberg will have the ability to make a one time attempt on Hitler during one of the meeting events though if it is not successful Hitler will gain an ability to order an investigation of the incident in which there is a good chance that he will be discovered and executed. The chance of success will be determined by the following factors: if he is invited to the meeting and the number of conspirators that are attending the meeting (the more conspirators he more help he will have in making it successful, Elser's attendance counts towards this goal)


Notice the part in red, bold, underlined, and oversized font. Not sure how I can stress this any more than I already have honestly.

For those that don't know the history of the 20 July Plot, it involved a briefcase bomb (2 bombs in one briefcase in fact, though only 1 was activated.) 4 People killed, a whole lot of folks injured, but Hitler was barely hurt. Having Stauffenberg's attempt be a bomb as well would not be surprising in the least.

Could this have been Elser? I suppose so, but I wouldn't think that EF would have put in that flavor text for it when it is so closel to what would happen with Stauf's mechanic. I suppose once(if) a 2nd attempt happens we'll know better.

[Lathum]

I would be very surprised if it was Stauffenberg. The conspiritors are owning us right now, why run the risk of a failed attempt and losing their cunning when they have it all going their way.

[The Jackal]

But J ... look below the line you bolded and redded. Stauffenberg's attempt is at a meeting.

1) there wasn't a meeting yesterday
2) the bomb went off after the lynch, so even if there had been a meeting, it didnt happen then

I understand what you're looking at with the investigation, but the way this was written, this definitely should not have been Stauffenberg's attack.

[The Jackal]

Am I wrong here? I think there's some pre-game mistakes here either way. Either Stauffenberg's attempt didn't have to be at a meeting (unlikely) - or an investigation was possible with Elser's attempt as well. Perhaps the current investigation is just a general investigation in keeping with the theme of the game? Wouldn't the Nazi Party want to know wtf happened? It's probably just not the kind of investigation that is going to immediately get someone executed. That's the best I have to go off.

[Danny]

I would be very surprised if it was Stauffenberg. The conspiritors are owning us right now, why run the risk of a failed attempt and losing their cunning when they have it all going their way.

Because he would have had to decide night 1, not now.

[The Jackal]

You have them mixed up, Danny. Elser is the one that had to decide night 1, not Stauffenberg.

[J23]

Good points Jackal. It does mention that it is at a meeting, which I glossed over and focused on just the investigation portion.

If it was Elser, then we don't know that Hitler was there at all, or anything about any of the people at that location for that matter. Ugh.

[Danny]

What I think Danny caught that I didn't at first was:

"Stauffenberg will have the ability to make a one time attempt on Hitler during one of the meeting events"

This specifically mentions the attempt is on Hitler, not a location.

This, I am assuming that the person had no idea in which location Hitler would be, but on night 1 decided to use their ability and the bomb went off wherever Hitler was located.

[Danny]

Johann Georg Elser - A carpenter who is very good with his hands and detests the iron fisted rule of the Nazis and what he fears them to be. He has a one time ability to craft an explosive device which may (or may not) cause havoc with the Nazi party. When he decides to plant the bomb it will not go off for two nights (if he sets it on day/night one it will not go off until day/night three). There is no stopping his attack once it has begun and will still detonate if he is killed prior to the event. The device is set when he gives the order. He acts alone and does not have any affiliation with the Nazi party and thus not with the other conspirators. He wins with the conspiracy though he does not have PM rights.

Claus Philipp Maria Schenk Graf von Stauffenberg - Famous for his role in the assassination attempt know primarily in Germany as the 20 July Plot, though more commonly known as Operation Valkyrie (though that was actually a German conditional plan in the event that the government could not function for any number of reasons. Stauffenberg will have the ability to make a one time attempt on Hitler during one of the meeting events though if it is not successful Hitler will gain an ability to order an investigation of the incident in which there is a good chance that he will be discovered and executed. The chance of success will be determined by the following factors: if he is invited to the meeting and the number of conspirators that are attending the meeting (the more conspirators he more help he will have in making it successful, Elser's attendance counts towards this goal)

To me I think this had to have been Elser. Stauffenberg's attempt happens during the meeting event, this I dont believe was that.

Elser clearly states that it is a bomb and that if planted night one, will go off night 3 (which is the night we just had)

[Danny]

Reposted (since it was jumbled with the descriptions)

To me I think this had to have been Elser. Stauffenberg's attempt happens during the meeting event, this I dont believe was that.

Elser clearly states that it is a bomb and that if planted night one, will go off night 3 (which is the night we just had)

[J23]

I assume that Elser's is just planted at a location, not that it detonates wherever Hitler is. I think Stauf's ability is the only one that will point out where Hitler is at.

[J23]

Well, sorry if I led us astray w/ the Stauf confusion. Damn you EF for the flavor text that I latched onto!!

[Danny]

I assume that Elser's is just planted at a location, not that it detonates wherever Hitler is. I think Stauf's ability is the only one that will point out where Hitler is at.

That almost seems really underpowered then since the bomb has to be set off two night in advance. Unless they can decide the location at the last minute.

[The Jackal]

That almost seems really underpowered then since the bomb has to be set off two night in advance. Unless they can decide the location at the last minute.

Well, we don't know how many of the people in the ICU are going to survive. I hope they all will, but let's hold judgement on how underpowered that ability is. We don't know about some of the mechanics that are going on under the table here.

[Danny]

Well, we don't know how many of the people in the ICU are going to survive. I hope they all will, but let's hold judgement on how underpowered that ability is. We don't know about some of the mechanics that are going on under the table here.

Yeah, but there could be wolves in there too. Ideally we see them all die, them all be wolves and we win right there.

[The Jackal]

Yeah, but there could be wolves in there too. Ideally we see them all die, them all be wolves and we win right there.

Well sure, that'd be great. :)

[Danny]

I think the lack of jumping on Ntn here is a good sign. He is the obvious target and you'd have to think the wolves would have jumped on the chance to vote him if he was a villager.

[Telle]

Hey all.. I'm home sick today, so I'm not going to be in the thread much today. Anybody have a vote count?

[Danny]

I think it's 2 for NTN and no other votes.

[Lathum]

Maybe the inverstigation is the punishment against the conspiritors for the mistaken PM.

[Danny]

Maybe the inverstigation is the punishment against the conspiritors for the mistaken PM.

I thought that was just a lack of a night kill the other day.

[Lathum]

I thought that was just a lack of a night kill the other day.

GE was the night kill, no?

[Danny]

GE was the night kill, no?

Basically yeah, but that was still kind of punishment since it meant they couldn't hit an important role.

[Lathum]

Basically yeah, but that was still kind of punishment since it meant they couldn't hit an important role.

the vibe I got was there was going to be an additional punishment

[The Jackal]

the vibe I got was there was going to be an additional punishment

Hitler was going to get some additional powers or something, wasn't he?

[The Jackal]

To be exercised later on, that's what I remember reading.

[Danny]

Oh yeah, and extra night power I think.

[ntndeacon]

I thought they got a night kill that night. besides GE

[The Jackal]

I thought they got a night kill that night. besides GE

No. They got no action that night.

[ntndeacon]

GE was the night kill, no?

no. I think there was an additional kill Iwill go back and look for it here after my student leaves.

[The Jackal]

The idea of Hitler gaining the power to be able to investigate Elser's attack resonates with me. I don't think we should be speculating about it, it'll just be confusing. When/if Hitler is revealed (without being killed), I'm sure he would have some info for us.

[The Jackal]

no. I think there was an additional kill Iwill go back and look for it here after my student leaves.

There was definitely not an additional kill that night.

[Chief Rum]

Good points Jackal. It does mention that it is at a meeting, which I glossed over and focused on just the investigation portion.

If it was Elser, then we don't know that Hitler was there at all, or anything about any of the people at that location for that matter. Ugh.

Something else to consider--if it was Staufenberg. If it was, that means Staufenberg controlled the attempt, which means he and the conspirators knew it would happen. Which means we have another tool to consider who conspirators are, since it seems likely they wouldn't put conspirators in the room unless one was necessary to set it off.

But as mentioned, going by the game rules, it feels more like an Elser thing--outside of the investigation reference.

[Danny]

Lathum was just boxed for a few days in OT, so just a heads up that he won't be voting. The child in the balloon thread is where the stuff happened.

[The Jackal]

Lathum was just boxed for a few days in OT, so just a heads up that he won't be voting. The child in the balloon thread is where the stuff happened.

So the two of us have voted, three people in the ICU, lathum boxed, leaves 6 people left who haven't voted?

[The Jackal]

I would have to imagine at least two of those people are wolves, coming from the view that I know I'm not a wolf and that Danny isn't, and that statistics points to there being less than 2 wolves in the ICU, though that's not a definite because it wasn't up to the wolves where they would be stationed when the bomb went off.

[J23]

I would have to imagine at least two of those people are wolves, coming from the view that I know I'm not a wolf and that Danny isn't, and that statistics points to there being less than 2 wolves in the ICU, though that's not a definite because it wasn't up to the wolves where they would be stationed when the bomb went off.

What statistics are you using to say there are less than 2 wolves in the ICU?

[The Jackal]

What statistics are you using to say there are less than 2 wolves in the ICU?

Just the general 3 out of 12 people. That would suggest the chances are that there are less than 2 wolves, but like I said, that's not definite.

[The Jackal]

What evidence would you bring out against PB or Schmidty, NTN? Since those are the names you mentioned earlier.

[ntndeacon]

Ok I was thinking of the lynching which there was, not the night action which there wasn't. I see now. sorry for adding confusion there.

[The Jackal]

I'm happy to see a situation where you aren't a wolf, but we need to get some discussion going here.

[The Jackal]

Something else to consider--if it was Staufenberg. If it was, that means Staufenberg controlled the attempt, which means he and the conspirators knew it would happen. Which means we have another tool to consider who conspirators are, since it seems likely they wouldn't put conspirators in the room unless one was necessary to set it off.

But as mentioned, going by the game rules, it feels more like an Elser thing--outside of the investigation reference.

CR, again, I'm almost positive this was an Elser attack. But even if it was Stauffenberg, there's no indication that it is up to the conspirators who is in the room whatsoever. Unless I'm mistaken, its up to Hitler to decide who attends the meeting, and that would make perfect sense. So it would simply be a case of Stauffenberg (if he was at the meeting), seeing how many conspirators were there before making a decision. We can't base anything on how many people they would place somewhere, I don't think they can place people anywhere.

[saldana]

Lathum was just boxed for a few days in OT, so just a heads up that he won't be voting. The child in the balloon thread is where the stuff happened.


unless anyone has an objection, I will be taking over for Lathum while he serves his time...just waiting for him to call me to fill me in on the game

So the two of us have voted, three people in the ICU, lathum boxed, leaves 6 people left who haven't voted?

what time is the deadline.

[ntndeacon]

to be honest Jackal, I have no evidence. I just knew that we have not sniffed in their direction

[The Jackal]

The deadline is 10 PM EST.

[The Jackal]

to be honest Jackal, I have no evidence. I just knew that we have not sniffed in their direction

Alright. Never hurts to sniff in people's direction and make them talk some.

[Danny]

Alright. Never hurts to sniff in people's direction and make them talk some.

Unless they haven't showered recently, then it can hurt pretty bad.

[The Jackal]

Har har!

[EagleFan]

Just catching up on the Lathum boxing. saldana will take his spot during this time period.

Sorry for the strange game far, with the PM incident and now a boxing replacement.

[J23]

As far as my not voting, I'll likely be on around 8:15 or so to catch up on where the thread has gone and make my decision at that point. I'm hoping we learn something from the investigation by then, and that those that have been absent from the thread have gotten a chance to chime in.

Btw, the 2nd meeting set to happen tomorrow, correct?

Also, I don't expect to be on at deadline tonight again unfortunately.

[EagleFan]

Yes, second meeting tomorrow.

[Chief Rum]

CR, again, I'm almost positive this was an Elser attack. But even if it was Stauffenberg, there's no indication that it is up to the conspirators who is in the room whatsoever. Unless I'm mistaken, its up to Hitler to decide who attends the meeting, and that would make perfect sense. So it would simply be a case of Stauffenberg (if he was at the meeting), seeing how many conspirators were there before making a decision. We can't base anything on how many people they would place somewhere, I don't think they can place people anywhere.

Yeah, like I said, I am almost positive it's an Elser attack, too. But presuming the Staufenberg hypothetical, you are correct that they don't choose who's in the room. But they do choose when. And they can make that choice after seeing who's in the room.

My guess is the conspirators weren't about to fire off a bomb unless only at most one of them was at risk (the one setting the bomb int he first place, presumeably Stauffenberg).

[The Jackal]

Yeah, like I said, I am almost positive it's an Elser attack, too. But presuming the Staufenberg hypothetical, you are correct that they don't choose who's in the room. But they do choose when. And they can make that choice after seeing who's in the room.

My guess is the conspirators weren't about to fire off a bomb unless only at most one of them was at risk (the one setting the bomb int he first place, presumeably Stauffenberg).

But the bomb presumably has a very poor chance of working unless there is more than one conspirator in the room.

[PurdueBrad]

I agree that there was likely only one conspirator at the bombsite and that it was Stauffenberg, otherwise why risk it. From the rules, have we seen any evidence that more conspirators make his attempt any more likely.

I am willing, for now, to assume that there were more conspirators at the other sight. That being said, my vote will come in a minute, looking up one thing.

[PurdueBrad]

Okay, that's what I thought. I'll vote ntn now and hope that Hitler's investigation flushes out Stauffenberg.

vote ntndeacon

[Chief Rum]

I agree that there was likely only one conspirator at the bombsite and that it was Stauffenberg, otherwise why risk it. From the rules, have we seen any evidence that more conspirators make his attempt any more likely.

I am willing, for now, to assume that there were more conspirators at the other sight. That being said, my vote will come in a minute, looking up one thing.

The Jackal is right; it says in the rules that the more conspirators are present the more likely that the attempt will succeed.

It seems counter-intuitive then that the conspirators would be required to fire bomb a room at which they had a number of their own team in attendance. That tells me that Stauffenberg's method of attack is probably something other than an indisciminate bomb, which diverts from history.

No, it seems pretty clear Elser set this bomb two days ago, and we'll just have to mull over the Hitler investigation thing until we get more information.

[GoldenEagle]

Surely Lathum should be allowed to post in this forum.

[EagleFan]

1944 - Foxley Operation

The British government using the Special Operative Executive planned on assassinating Hitler. These plans included several attempts, or several planned attempts.

First plan: Place a bomb on the train that Hitler used. After careful study of intelligence reports this plan was called off due to the very unpredictable schedule that Hitler kept. It was never determined that there would be one known time in which the plan could be successful.

Second plan: Poison Hitler's food and drink. This plan was also scrapped, this time because they would have to use an inside man for the job and getting an inside man that close to Hitler's inner circle was deemed too risky.

Third plan: Use a sniper to assassinate Hitler. They received information about Hitler's regular schedule when he was at the Berghof. He would walk around the woods every day at 10 AM unguarded and for much of it out of sight of the sentries. Churchill was in favor of this plan but they decided to scrap the plan as the war had turned before they went through with it. They were afraid that an assassination of Hitler by the enemy could turn him into a martyr in the eyes of the remaining Nazis and much of Germany.

[EagleFan]

With all of the PM'd questions after last night's events, the location list did not get posted.

For day/night 4:

Berlin:
Schmidty
Danny
ntndeacon
Telle

Wolfsschanze:
Autumn
J23
PurdueBrad
Abe Sargent
KWhit
Chief Rum

Berchtesgaden:
Lathum
The Jackal

[The Jackal]

Clearly Lathum and I are secret lovers.

[EagleFan]

Clearly Lathum and I are secret lovers.

saldana's gonna be pissed.... :devil:

[saldana]

saldana's gonna be pissed.... :devil:


:rant: :rant: :rant: :rant: :rant: want. to. vote. for. gm

[saldana]

so i havent been able to catch up all the way (18 pages is alot), so I am gonna stick with what I see as Lathum's gut

vote ntn deacon

[Schmidty]

I can't believe Lathum was boxed for that. That is absolute bullshit. SD pretty much cemented his place as the worst moderator I have ever seen. I don't usually dislike posters on FOFC as people, but it's really hard to respect that guy.

[Schmidty]

Hope I don't get banned for that.

[EagleFan]

Hope I don't get banned for that.

He doesn't even know this sub forum exists, you're safe. :)

[Schmidty]

So what's the official vote count? I'm too lazy to look.

[The Jackal]

I think me, Danny, PB, and saldana/lathum have voted for NTN and that's it.

[EagleFan]

:rant: :rant: :rant: :rant: :rant: want. to. vote. for. gm

Glad you could join us.

No wonder I get voted out early a lot, people even want to vote for me when I am the GM. ;)

[Danny]

Plus you're a wolf in at least half of the games.

[Schmidty]

So wait, are people voting for ntn simply because of a few gut-feelings?

[EagleFan]

As of post 910:

ntndeacon 4 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902)

[EagleFan]

Plus you're a wolf in at least half of the games.

Ssshhh, don't tell. ;)

[EagleFan]

dola: Danny just gave me a game idea, the GM wolf. All players as villagers and only the GM as a wolf. :)

[Danny]

So wait, are people voting for ntn simply because of a few gut-feelings?

For me no. Twice NTN has been a possible lynch candidate and twice he managed to get himself as the #3 candidate without actually doing anything. I think if he were a villager some of the wolves would have helped carry him closer to lynch. He also is the only remaining voter for CR on day #1 still alive or not cleared. All 5 other players are/were villagers. I personally think it is unlikely there were no wolves on the second leading vote getter day 1.

[Danny]

dola: Danny just gave me a game idea, the GM wolf. All players as villagers and only the GM as a wolf. :)

That could be this game, in fact I will tell myself that is the reason we haven't found a wolf yet. It's not because we are playing poorly.

[Danny]

I personally think it is unlikely there were no wolves on the second leading vote getter day 1.

Of course this would be depending on whether or not CR is a wolf as well. CR would be the ideal second candidate here if one was to emerge, and probably not Schmidty or PB as suggested by NTN.

[Schmidty]

For me no. Twice NTN has been a possible lynch candidate and twice he managed to get himself as the #3 candidate without actually doing anything. I think if he were a villager some of the wolves would have helped carry him closer to lynch. He also is the only remaining voter for CR on day #1 still alive or not cleared. All 5 other players are/were villagers. I personally think it is unlikely there were no wolves on the second leading vote getter day 1.

I think this is a sound reason for voting for him. I'll go with that unless something else comes up.

Vote ntndeacon

[Chief Rum]

ALthough I have generally gotten a good vibe from The Jackal today, the fact remains his record in my analysis still came off fairly poorly. ntn also came off poorly, and I don't have an issue goin with an ntn vote. But the old adage about WW applies here; we don't learn anything in runaway votes.

So I am going to introduce the Jackal and hope we at least get some discussion or evening things out. Then we can go with whichever one seems best at the end.

I will check in when I get home in about an hour and change, but it will probably be brief, and I won't be around for deadline.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[EagleFan]

As of post 918:

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 1 - Chief Rum (918)

[The Jackal]

If you need me to be a secondary candidate, whatever, but as I said yesterday, I'm not unconvinced NTN and CR are both wolves here.

[Danny]

If you need me to be a secondary candidate, whatever, but as I said yesterday, I'm not unconvinced NTN and CR are both wolves here.

I think you're saying you think they both could be wolves and I agree that is a possibility. Though, you think if that were the case CR might just go with the crowd.

[The Jackal]

I think you're saying you think they both could be wolves and I agree that is a possibility. Though, you think if that were the case CR might just go with the crowd.

Yes, you'd think so.

[The Jackal]

Perhaps he's just misguided in voting for me twice, but it certainly bothers me. Not a reason it should bother anyone else. Hopefully NTN turns up bad here.

[Danny]

If I was in his position I would have voted elsewhere most likely too. This is one game where I actually don't have a wolfy read on CR based on gut, so of course he probably is one :)

[The Jackal]

I'm going to watch the Phillies game, not sure if I'll be back before deadline. However things happen to go in my absence, good luck to the Nazis! Boy, you don't think you're ever going to say that in your life, and then it happens.

[Telle]

For me no. Twice NTN has been a possible lynch candidate and twice he managed to get himself as the #3 candidate without actually doing anything. I think if he were a villager some of the wolves would have helped carry him closer to lynch. He also is the only remaining voter for CR on day #1 still alive or not cleared. All 5 other players are/were villagers. I personally think it is unlikely there were no wolves on the second leading vote getter day 1.

But we still don't know for sure if CR is a villager or a wolf, so that analysis is flawed.

I'm going to follow Chief Rum with the second candidate. I'm just really not liking this run on ntn.

vote The Jackal

[EagleFan]

As of post 926:

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 2 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926)

[J23]

vote The Jackal

though today made me feel better about him, I don't really want to just pile on.

[Danny]

But we still don't know for sure if CR is a villager or a wolf, so that analysis is flawed.

I'm going to follow Chief Rum with the second candidate. I'm just really not liking this run on ntn.

vote The Jackal

Even if CR was a wolf, I would be surprised if there wasn't another wolf on him.

[Danny]

The other argument is if you believe that at least one of NTN and CR is a wolf then if not voting NTN why follow CR's candidate?

[Danny]

My vote will not be moving. If the run off was CR/NTN I would think about it, but lynching Jackal gives us little info if we are wrong and we still have big questions about NTN and CR. At least NTN or CR give us some good info.

[Danny]

I still am wondering why on day 1 no wolves would jump on the lynching of CR after villagers started the run. They could have fit in fine and lynching CR day 1 would have been very good for them if he is a villager.

[EagleFan]

As of post 932:

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 3 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928)

[EagleFan]

Non-WW related:

Ruuuuuuuuuuiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:party:

[Chief Rum]

I still am wondering why on day 1 no wolves would jump on the lynching of CR after villagers started the run. They could have fit in fine and lynching CR day 1 would have been very good for them if he is a villager.

The problem with your statement here is that the bolded part is incorrect.

Any analysis such as mine would have highlighted that. It's not like people who get someone lynched late aren't looked at.

[Chief Rum]

My vote will not be moving. If the run off was CR/NTN I would think about it, but lynching Jackal gives us little info if we are wrong and we still have big questions about NTN and CR. At least NTN or CR give us some good info.

Lynching ntn in a runaway gives us even less info than lynching The Jackal. And that's even beside the fact that there is at least a little circumstantial evidence to suggest The Jackal could be a wolf himself, certainly as much on ntn.

Don't marry yourself to your "has to be one wolf" theory to the exclusion of all others.

[ntndeacon]

For me no. Twice NTN has been a possible lynch candidate and twice he managed to get himself as the #3 candidate without actually doing anything. I think if he were a villager some of the wolves would have helped carry him closer to lynch. He also is the only remaining voter for CR on day #1 still alive or not cleared. All 5 other players are/were villagers. I personally think it is unlikely there were no wolves on the second leading vote getter day 1.

not if we had always two villagers going at it. I know this is too little too late but I just got home.

[ntndeacon]

Of course this would be depending on whether or not CR is a wolf as well. CR would be the ideal second candidate here if one was to emerge, and probably not Schmidty or PB as suggested by NTN.

Yea I was just throwing out names there and have said so. I think y'all should look at those that have not gotten much looks

[ntndeacon]

Vote the Jackal

[EagleFan]

As of post 939:

ntndeacon 5 - Danny (791), The Jackal (808), PurdueBrad (894), saldana (902), Schmidty (917)
The Jackal 4 - Chief Rum (918), Telle (926), J23 (928), ntndeacon (939)

[EagleFan]

deadline

[ntndeacon]

I think most of the wolves are on me btw.

[ntndeacon]

good luck Nazis

[ntndeacon]

at least the seer gets another night!

[Chief Rum]

I think most of the wolves are on me btw.

My best guess has two on you. But then I would say the same thing about you if you were on a vote list for someone else.

I guess we'll see.

[EagleFan]

After the stressful events of the previous night all eyes turn towards ntndeacon. A rush of votes make the late reasoning for The Jackal futile.

ntndeacon must be the traitor!!!! He must be stopped.

The firing squad is convened. ntndeacon tried to plead his case but the majority are not listening.

Ready!!!

Aim!!!

Fire!!!

With the sound of the shots he drops to the ground. Maybe you have finally gotten a conspirator.

You rush to him to see what you can find.

As you get closer you start to notice a very familiar face. No!!! It can't be!!!

What have we done?

Laying motionless on the ground is one of the greatest military leaders in German history. Rommel has been killed. He was loyal, he had no knowledge of the conspiracy.


Night results to come.

[Danny]

Damn, still no traitor, though at least there wont be a convert for sure now.

[EagleFan]

After a long night knowing that you have just killed the greatest General in the German army you wake to hear that there has been another assassination.

The streets are buzzing with the news.


Telle has been found dead. Searching through Telle's belongings you see that it was actually Hermann Göring.

Things are not looking good for the Nazi party. You wonder how much worse things could get.

You hear that there is news coming in from the hospital about the victims of last night's blast...

[Chief Rum]

Grrr...

That sucks. I hate it when the seer buys it and we don't know any results.

[Danny]

That sucks. We'll have to look at Telle's vote history. but at first glance this doesn't bode too well for Jackal.

[Danny]

But then again considering she never came out with anything, it's quite possible she never found a wolf. I don't think she dropped any hints either, so may be screwed.

[Chief Rum]

But then again considering she never came out with anything, it's quite possible she never found a wolf. I don't think she dropped any hints either, so may be screwed.

A scan is a scan. Just because she didn't find a wolf (presuming), doesn't mean we wouldn't learn something. We could have cleared three more people, unless they all happened to be killed already.

[Chief Rum]

So any word on our hurt compatriots, EF?

[Danny]

A scan is a scan. Just because she didn't find a wolf (presuming), doesn't mean we wouldn't learn something. We could have cleared three more people, unless they all happened to be killed already.

That's not what I meant. I was referring to the likelihood Jackal was a wolf. I have to believe that if Jackal had been scanned bad, Telle would have came out. Im pointing out that her Jackal vote is not necessarily damning of him.

[EagleFan]

The word from the hospital is good. All three are alive and have been released. They may resume in thread.

The word from France is not as good. The Allies have landed and have gained a foothold in Europe.

[Danny]

A scan is a scan. Just because she didn't find a wolf (presuming), doesn't mean we wouldn't learn something. We could have cleared three more people, unless they all happened to be killed already.

In honesty, my gut told me the seer might have been one of the ICU'd. I am surprised there wasn't a reveal with the limited field of night kill players today.

[Schmidty]

Good and.....very bad. We killed a potential wolf, but also offed the Seer. Stating the obvious, but still. I'm at a loss right now. With all apologies to Danny (great player), I'll be going with my gut from here forward. Unless something obvious comes up.

[Schmidty]

The word from France is not as good. The Allies have landed and have gained a foothold in Europe.

Is this just flavor, or actually a game mechanic?

[Danny]

Final Day One Vote

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl 1 - JAG (193)

No vote: KWhit

Final Vote Day 2:

Darth Vilus 8 - PurdueBad (403), Autumn (408), KWhit (436), ntndeacon (440), JAG (452), Chief Rum (467), Abe Sargent (476), J23 (539)
ntndeacon 1 - Lathum (432)
Chief Rum 6 - Darth Vilus (421), bulletsponge (425), Telle (438), Danny (447), The Jackal (479), Schmidty (481)

Final Vote Day 3

bulletsponge 7 - Danny (618), Schmidty (655), Telle (671), PurdueBrad (687), ntndeacon (698), Lathum (733), Abe Sargent (738)
The Jackal 4 - J23 (627), Chief Rum (664), bulletsponge (682), Autumn (723)
ntndeacon 3 - KWhit (654), The Jackal (657), JAG (690)

[Danny]

Good and.....very bad. We killed a potential wolf, but also offed the Seer. Stating the obvious, but still. I'm at a loss right now. With all apologies to Danny (great player), I'll be going with my gut from here forward. Unless something obvious comes up.

Well, we didn't off the seer, but I am assuming you just meant lost them.

For the second part, this has not been a shining moment game for me, so feel free :)

[Chief Rum]

That's not what I meant. I was referring to the likelihood Jackal was a wolf. I have to believe that if Jackal had been scanned bad, Telle would have came out. Im pointing out that her Jackal vote is not necessarily damning of him.

I doubt she scanned The Jackal yet. Probably wasn't even much looked at before my analysis, when I highlighted him. And then last night, if she hadn't scanned me yet (note, BTW, she had voted for me and today she made a point to...just sayin'...), she would have scanned me for sure, or one of the other votegetters (ntn?) if she had already scanned me.

The Jackal was a likely scan candidate tonight.

[Danny]

I doubt she scanned The Jackal yet. Probably wasn't even much looked at before my analysis, when I highlighted him. And then last night, if she hadn't scanned me yet (note, BTW, she had voted for me and today she made a point to...just sayin'...), she would have scanned me for sure, or one of the other votegetters (ntn?) if she had already scanned me.

The Jackal was a likely scan candidate tonight.

That's basically what I was saying and I do have to believe that she likely would have scanned you. But I'm not going to assume it's 100%. Plus there is a cunning wolf.

[Chief Rum]

made a point NOT to, I mean.

[Danny]

As far as numbers are concerned, we are either 7-4 of 8-3 right now.

[Chief Rum]

That's basically what I was saying and I do have to believe that she likely would have scanned you. But I'm not going to assume it's 100%. Plus there is a cunning wolf.

Yup, aware of the cunning. At this point, we couldn't really do anything about that. We simply had to go with what info we had, and could only afford to question past "clears" if we were drawing a blank on candidates.

Doesn't matter now, though, since we never found out about any scans.

[Danny]

I really wish we knew CR's allegiance.

The thing I usually do best is vote analysis and patterns, especially when there is at least one wolf found. I may end up going with my gut the next vote

[Danny]

Yup, aware of the cunning. At this point, we couldn't really do anything about that. We simply had to go with what info we had, and could only afford to question past "clears" if we were drawing a blank on candidates.

Doesn't matter now, though, since we never found out about any scans.

We're pretty much in a situation of needing to get lucky. We have no info from scans or a caught wolf or even one under fire as far as we know.

[Chief Rum]

As far as numbers are concerned, we are either 7-4 of 8-3 right now.

I hope we're 8-3, but I suspect it's 7-4. Which means tomorrow is the penultimate day. If we don't get a wolf tomorrow, we will be basically in a do or die situation Monday.

And that doesn't even account for the Stauffenberg assassination attempt that could still be coming. There's a meeting tomorrow.

[Chief Rum]

I really wish we knew CR's allegiance.

I wish you knew, too.

Suffice to say, if the village comes after me yet again at this point, it will be completing a stretch of weird stretch of voting ineptitude. You would think after five days, a wolf would be found out of sheer luck.

[EagleFan]

Is this just flavor, or actually a game mechanic?

Pretty much just flavor, going to tie into the reason given for the next meeting.

[Danny]

Out of everyone, mygut for a wolf is Autumn.

[Chief Rum]

Out of everyone, mygut for a wolf is Autumn.

Any particular evidentiary fuel behind your gut?

I still like The Jackal as a wolf.

[Danny]

Day 1

KWhit 2 - Darth Vilus (80), PurdueBrad (105)
Lathum 1 - DaddyTorgo (96)
Darth Vilus 2 - Autumn (91), Telle (219)
Chief Rum 5 - ntndeacon (92), bulletsponge (110), GldenEagle (213), LoneStarGirl (221), Danny (223)
DaddyTorgo 7 - Lathum (102), J23 (106), hoopsguy (113), Abe Sargent (125), Scmidty (153), The Jackal (163), Chief Rum (230)
LoneStarGirl 1 - JAG (193)

[Danny]

Also Kwhit, who didn't vote. I think based on typical wolf play, there is a good chance that at least 1, if not 2 of them are wolves.

[Danny]

Any particular evidentiary fuel behind your gut?

I still like The Jackal as a wolf.

Just a couple posts of his that pinged me though I can't point them out now. And now that I looked closer at day 1, he stands out based on something more objective.

[Danny]

PurdueBrad
Autumn
Kwhit

I think that group right there gives us the best chance to hit a wolf as based on typical wolf play, 2 of those are likely to be wolves.

[Chief Rum]

Also Kwhit, who didn't vote. I think based on typical wolf play, there is a good chance that at least 1, if not 2 of them are wolves.

Don't go too strong after KWhit, he'll come after you. ;)

Seriously, both PB and KWhit were on the middle ground when I looked at things and the removal of more "serious" candidates has elevated both of them higher, IMO. I probably would put PB behind The Jackal, and have to look further at KWhit.

[Danny]

I think we need to look away from Jackal for now. , if there are four wolves, I think having two of them put a vote on DT and then have the other two go elsewhere would have been the likely result. If the wolves rolled the dice and all stacked their votes, then kudos to them, but I think we have to go with what the wolves do 95% of the time.

[Danny]

Vote Autumn

I know this hasn't been my best game, but I think the information we now have from day 1 is the best we have had all game.

[Danny]

Autumn over the others is my gut call, but I think a PB vote is good as well.

[Chief Rum]

Vote Autumn

I know this hasn't been my best game, but I think the information we now have from day 1 is the best we have had all game.

I think PB is a better candidate than Autumn, using the objective rational you have with the Day One results. PB rated more suspicious in my analysis than Autumn.

There are other reasons to vote for The Jackal than figuring on a 2 for 2 guess in the Day One vote (and that assumes four wolves). He put a runaway vote on DT before the run on me developed, and he was a notable member of the "not at the meeting" group, at which we have suppoosed there could be more wolves than were at the meeting.

[Danny]

Also, for wolves we have either 7-3 or 6-4 as we had the number off by 1. This could be end game for the wolves.

CR, you have to admit that it's very very likely there is at least 1 if not 2 wolves in that group of 3. Jackal does not appear the best choice right now.

[Danny]

1st meeting

Danny
Telle
GoldenEagle
JAG
J23
Kwhit
PurdueBrad

Not at meeting

1. Lathum
2. The Jackal
3. Schmidty
6. Autumn
11. Abe Sargent
12. Chief Rum
14. ntndeacon
17. bulletsponge

[Chief Rum]

Also, for wolves we have either 7-3 or 6-4 as we had the number off by 1. This could be end game for the wolves.

CR, you have to admit that it's very very likely there is at least 1 if not 2 wolves in that group of 3. Jackal does not appear the best choice right now.

Why, because you put together the list?

Try this:

Autumn
Purdue Brad
The Jackal

I can say the same thing.

I don't see a compelling reason why The Jackal should be considered less strongly than the others. Heck, you're taking a risk in assuming four and that they were able to settle into an easy 2-2 on/not on DT group. If it's three, than there is likely a 50% chance one of your two outside is not a wolf.

I'm not saying they aren't wolves; I just don't see how The Jackal is a worse choice. Going off of the Day One vote to the exclusion of all other evidence seems ripe for making a mistake.

[Danny]

Also, CR's initial reasoning for putting Autumn on the ok list was Autumn having the first second vote. I definitely do not think that elevates him at all.

And like Jackal, Autumn was also not at the meeting.

You can also note that both PB and Kwhit were at the meeting and it was successful. I think that means only of them is likely to be a wolf.

So I think it looks like there's a reasonable chance Autumn and one of PB/Kwhit are wolves.

[Danny]

Why, because you put together the list?

Try this:

Autumn
Purdue Brad
The Jackal

I can say the same thing.

I don't see a compelling reason why The Jackal should be considered less strongly than the others. Heck, you're taking a risk in assuming four and that they were able to settle into an easy 2-2 on/not on DT group. If it's three, than there is likely a 50% chance one of your two outside is not a wolf.

I'm not saying they aren't wolves; I just don't see how The Jackal is a worse choice. Going off of the Day One vote to the exclusion of all other evidence seems ripe for making a mistake.

Before you seemed pretty set on their being four wolves. Now you think only three? With four wolves, it's 90%+ likely two of the three names I gave our wolves. Even with only three wolves, there is a very chance the wolves spread their vote and two of the three could still be wolves. Autumn is also the only one of the three who was not at the meeting.

You also switched up your analysis by before wanting to go with those at the meeting, but now wanting to go with someone who was not.

Your list with Jackal is not close to being the same rationale as my list. My list has common components among all three. If you put in Jackal, you can put in the four others who voted DT as well.

You keep going back to your analysis, but you have already changed that up yourself and it is 3 days old at this point.

[Schmidty]

This game is confusing the hell out of me. By now, we would have normally had at least one wolf, and had something to off of from that.

Anyway, as I said, I'm going gut from here on out. That might make me look bad if I don't pile on or not "spread things out", but this hasn't been working.

[Danny]

This game is confusing the hell out of me. By now, we would have normally had at least one wolf, and had something to off of from that.

Anyway, as I said, I'm going gut from here on out. That might make me look bad if I don't pile on or not "spread things out", but this hasn't been working.

Just keep in mind it's possible we are at end game, so we will likely need your vote to count in the end.

[Chief Rum]

Before you seemed pretty set on their being four wolves. Now you think only three? With four wolves, it's 90%+ likely two of the three names I gave our wolves. Even with only three wolves, there is a very chance the wolves spread their vote and two of the three could still be wolves. Autumn is also the only one of the three who was not at the meeting.

You also switched up your analysis by before wanting to go with those at the meeting, but now wanting to go with someone who was not.

Your list with Jackal is not close to being the same rationale as my list. My list has common components among all three. If you put in Jackal, you can put in the four others who voted DT as well.

You keep going back to your analysis, but you have already changed that up yourself and it is 3 days old at this point.

No, I am saying don't jump in blind. Look at all the info, not just what fits one theory. I do think there are four. Would I bet the game on it? No.

And now you're doing the same thing as KWhit and reading into my meeting post far more than I wrote. I said a successful meeting suggests one conspirator, and if we were to go that route, I would look at Telle, KWhit and PB. When KWhit later suggested the opposite, that one wolf means many wolves out, I thought that was a very good point and said so. Sorry I didn't catch 100% of everything the first time through my analysis. Heck, at least I took the time to do it.

Two days old, BTW. I know. I stayed up to do it.

Including KWhit in your group is widening your criteria considerably. You don't know that he wouldn't have voted for DT as well, and even in your theory, you have to figure 1-2 wolves did indeed vote for DT.

[Danny]

Kwhit is also the least likely one I am to vote for. I would vote PB or Autumn before him.

[Chief Rum]

To clarify, I would look at Telle, KWhit and PB for one conspirator. I never thought they were all wolves, and at most two. And now Telle is cleared (unfortunately), so if we go with the one conspirator at the meeting, we have a higher chance there.

This is silly, though, so let's just stop it. I am fine with PB, Autumn, KWhit or The Jackal. It's likely there are a handful of wolves in that group, no matter which theory you subscribe to. So let's stop playing some pointless back and forth for the same result.

[Danny]

I am just very surprised on you being dead set on the Jackal, I read your analysis tonight and don't see him as sticking out that much from the other in there on DT. I also don't understand why you are seemingly defending Autumn.

[Danny]

Ok, fair enough CR and I am not trusting of Jackal just so you know. I only think the %'s are in favor of looking on that list for now.

[Chief Rum]

I am just very surprised on you being dead set on the Jackal, I read your analysis tonight and don't see him as sticking out that much from the other in there on DT. I also don't understand why you are seemingly defending Autumn.

Danny, stop okay? You're reading too much into what I am writing. I can see an argument for Autumn that's as strong as the others, and I don't feel any inclination to defend him. The only message I am trying to get across to you (and failing :( ) is that we should have four candidates here. I don't even necessarily think The Jackal is a better choice than those others. I just am saying you shouldn't consider him a less likely candidate than those. There is as much evidence to support his wolfishness as those other three.

[Danny]

FWIW, I think if I were to guess on the wolves, I would probably say

Autumn
PB
Jackal and for the fourth I really don't know.

[Chief Rum]

Ok, fair enough CR and I am not trusting of Jackal just so you know. I only think the %'s are in favor of looking on that list for now.

Understood. So long as you don't marry yourself to a theory and not consider the entire body of evidence.

[Danny]

Danny, stop okay? You're reading too much into what I am writing. I can see an argument for Autumn that's as strong as the others, and I don't feel any inclination to defend him. The only message I am trying to get across to you (and failing :( ) is that we should have four candidates here. I don't even necessarily think The Jackal is a better choice than those others. I just am saying you shouldn't consider him a less likely candidate than those. There is as much evidence to support his wolfishness as those other three.


Ok, I will buy that then :)

[Autumn]

Wow, it was really frustrating not being able to talk. I really wanted to point out to you guys that it was Goring who ordered the investigation, not Hitler. I guess it's a moot point now. :-(

It took a while to catch up on tonight's stuff, and obviously there's a lot about me on there I'll want to respond to. I just popped in to catch up though, so I'll have to respond in length in the morning. I don't right now know who the best candidate is, so I'll need to figure it out. I know it's not me, and no offense, Danny, but I don't think we should be following your lead right now.

If you weren't cleared as Duke, Danny, I think it's certain we would be lynching you based on your voting record, as well as your behavior pushing for ties. It's plain to me that you have your own victory condition in this game. I hope it involves winning with the village, but it clearly also involves getting extra people killed somehow. I have to assume you're a villager, but I can't quite trust your reasons for picking lynch targets.

Anyway, I'll post more in the morning once I can get at my spreadsheet, and have a few more minutes. The three of us lived, at least, and we don't have to worry about Rommel anymore. That's some silver lining. We're down to what? Ten of us? I could have been a lot worse if we'd gotten some bad die rolls.

[Danny]

If you weren't cleared as Duke, Danny, I think it's certain we would be lynching you based on your voting record, as well as your behavior pushing for ties. It's plain to me that you have your own victory condition in this game. I hope it involves winning with the village, but it clearly also involves getting extra people killed somehow. I have to assume you're a villager, but I can't quite trust your reasons for picking lynch targets.


My voting is the same as everyone else's actually. Also, I never pushed for ties and have had multiple opportunities to try and make them happen. I simply asked what other's views were. I was looking to see how people responded much more so than looking for a tie.

And no, I have no winning conditions separate from the village.

But the fact you're trying to discredit the one cleared alive person does not help my trust for you. Feel free to break apart my analysis, but trying to discount them by discounting me is a wolfish thing to do.

[Danny]

Further, on the own victory condition thing. It's no where implied in the rules that this is the case and clearly lists me as a loyal member of the nazi party.