Werewolf CXXIV - Watchmen (Game Over, Wolves Win!, endpost:704)

[The Jackal]

Believe that is correct. Anyone doubting?

[saldana]

wow, wasnt expecting that.guess we find out what the tiebreaker is

[PackerFanatic]

Ah, I thought it was a tie too. Got it now.

[Danny]

That looks right Jackal.

[EagleFan]

Something seems fishy...

[The Jackal]

Was 6-4 for saldana when he switched to ntn, making it 6-5, then with Lathum's switch it switched to 6-5 for ntn. Proceeding with writeup.

[Lathum]

If NTN is the duke and dukes it to me I'll shoot myself

[PackerFanatic]

Yeah I thought for some reason sal's unvote was from himself...obviously that wasn't the case, heh.

Still, the late movement will be very telling tomorrow methinks.

[PackerFanatic]

If NTN is the duke and dukes it to me I'll shoot myself

lol

[hoopsguy]

As I noted earlier, Lathum tends to give Saldana the benefit of the doubt until there is no reason to do so.

I'm not going to read anything more into it than that unless someone has information to reveal that suggests otherwise. Hope that the switch tonight was a good one and that whatever vibe I got from NTN (which is hard to do, fwiw) was wrong.

[The Jackal]

Who will it be?

Saldana? Sure looked like it. He was ready to move to the guillotine until one of you made a late move to switch the result.

NTN is sent forwards. As he reaches the guillotine, you prepare to put a hood on him when you notice.. he is already wearing one! He laughs wickedly in no particular direction and steps up to his fate. Without further ado, his head is separated from his body.

NTN was Hooded Justice, the cultist!

[PackerFanatic]

Well hot damn.

[Danny]

Hmmm, that's not great, but not the worst lynch that could happen. Jackal, did the cultist know the wolves and vice versa?

[The Jackal]

Hmmm, that's not great, but not the worst lynch that could happen. Jackal, did the cultist know the wolves and vice versa?

The cultist did not know who the wolves were, nor did they know who he was.

[The Jackal]

Night actions due by Thursday, 930 AM EST.

[PackerFanatic]

Technically it's a wolf, but not one that could have been found out - so it doesn't help us a whole lot.

[saldana]

i dont think he knew them

[Danny]

Not really, he counted as a villager. It's not a bad lynch, but nothing to get too excited about.

[PackerFanatic]

Not really, he counted as a villager. It's not a bad lynch, but nothing to get too excited about.

But he also won with the wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Yep, no voting record information to take from the movement tonight.

The content of the posts may be a different matter, but not the votes themselves.

[Lathum]

decent outcome

[saldana]

honestly, i dont think we can complain at all about the last two deaths...yeah, they were villagers, but they were the most annoying villagers out there...they would have caused problems down the road.

[EagleFan]

Unless we see something from ntn that could have been a sign to the wolves we have to treat him being voted out like any other villager for vote history.

[Darth Vilus]

Yeah it wasn't the best lynch but if we were going to miss a wolf this would have been the way to go I guess. No harm no foul.

Overall not a terrible day I say

[The Jackal]

Results coming shortly.

[The Jackal]

You wake up for another day of decision making, and yet again someone is missing.

Lathum.

Upon searching his quarters, you realize that you have lost the very person you gathered together to protect.

Lathum was Edward Blake, the Comedian!

Day three begins with the culprits still at large.

[Danny]

Crap, just erased my post. Anyway, in short, I said that sucks and need to get going.

[PackerFanatic]

That's no good...

[Lathum]

poop

[saldana]

odd choice to kill Lathum...most wolves leave him alive on the concept that he will eventually get lynched for simply still being alive...

[hoopsguy]

Yep, I'm not grasping the wolf logic on Thomkal and then Lathum as the night kills.

I think Lathum might have drawn some attention today for his late vote swing, seeing as how it did not net a wolf and it "saved" a player. So that seems odd, although he might also have been a scan candidate for the same reasons (plus his reputation). So maybe that was a reason to go for it ... dunno.

I'm going to run some voting numbers, but more as good practice than having an agenda in mind.

[hoopsguy]

Autumn - 6 - (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)

ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

Those are the vote totals for the first two days, listed just before lynch results.

[saldana]

ok, while i still have a bad feeling about EF because of the way he started the run on me for no reason yesterday, i am going to start today in a different direction.

Darth is playing a very similar style game to what he did in the last game (when he was a wolf)...drive by votes, popping in and out and not really saying much (i know he is working, but i seem to remember in the past, that he was somewhat more insightful)

the playstyle just seems very much the same, so i am gonna go with my hunch.

vote darth vilus

[jeff061]

I think at this point I want to put a spotlight on some of the more silent players(purposley or not). See how voting goes around and hopefully get them to defend. There's a few to consider but for now:

VOTE J23

[jeff061]

I only see 2 possibilities for the Lathum kill. He was scanned or the wolves were just trying to throw some confusion around a late vote switch. I tend to agree with him being scanned.

I found the Thomkal slaying much stranger.

[Chief Rum]

Preliminary trust list. We don't have much to go on just yet without a wolf kill, so hopefully Rorschach is having some luck.

Feeling Good

Danny
hoopsguy

Leaning Good

jeff61
DaddyTorgo

No Real Read

Darth Vilus
J23
EagleFan (my EF read is best descibed as "confused")

Slight Distrust

PackerFanatic

Distrust

saldana

Most of my feelings either way are based on vibe alone, I'll admit, so take that into consideration. Some of it is from the vote yesterday. Although the wolves couldn't have known what Lathum would do, nor do we know if they cared (re: sal's allegiance), most of the village was involved in that head to head, and the wolves would have been a part of it. And what happened, a tight vote with a last minute switch that killed a villager (from all outward purposes, no one knew ntn was the cultist).

So I feel suspicious toward late voters on ntn and less suspicious of late voters on sal.

Of course, it could have been villager-villager and this is all meaningless. but that's my read on things so far.

[hoopsguy]

Here is the voting record (including switches) from Day 1, along with a couple of other notes that I took while going through the posts.

#74 - DT votes Hoops 1-0
#78 - Lathum votes Danny 1-1 Hoops/Danny
#81 - Autumn votes J23 1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23
#82 - PF votes Autumn 1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn
#84 - Hoops votes DT 1-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn/DT
#85 - Thomkal votes Jeff 1-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny/J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#89 - Jeff votes Hoops 2-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops over Danny/J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#90 - EF votes Danny 2-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny over J23/Autumn/DT/Jeff
#91 - Hoops unvotes DT, votes EF 2-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops/Danny over J23/Autumn/Jeff/EF
#94 - EF unvotes Danny, votes Hoops 3-1-1-1-1-1 Hoops over J23/Autumn/Jeff/EF/Danny
#95 - CR votes Autumn, 3-2-1-1-1-1 Hoops over Autumn over J23/Jeff/EF/Danny
#97 - Saldana votes EF, 3-2-2-1-1-1 Hoops over Autumn/EF over J23/Jeff/Danny
#100 - NTN votes Autumn 3-3-2-1-1-1 Hoops/Autumn over EF over J23/Jeff/Danny
#104 - Lathum unvotes Danny, votes EF 3-3-3-1-1 Hoops/Autumn/EF over J23/Jeff
#109 - DT unvotes Hoops 3-3-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#111 - DV votes Autumn 4-3-2-1-1 Autumn over EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#112 - Danny votes EF 4-4-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over J23/Jeff
#117 - Autumn unvotes J23, votes Danny 4-4-2-1-1 Autumn/EF over Hoops over Jeff/Danny
#123 - Thomkal unvotes Jeff, votes Danny 4-4-2-2 Autumn/EF over Hoops/Danny
#126 - EF unvotes Hoops, votes Danny 4-4-3-1 Autumn/EF over Danny over Hoops
#152 - DT votes Autumn, 5-4-3-1 Autumn over EF over Danny over Hoops
#157 - EF unvotes Danny, votes Autumn 6-4-2-1 Autumn over EF over Hoops

Role claims:
Vanilla - Hoops, CR

Day 1:
If EF is bad, who looks good/bad?
Good - me, Saldana, Danny
Bad - DT, DV

EF had a measured approach to his votes on D1 - nothing wildly out of character, but cautious and showing he was going to be around for the duration to protect himself. That suggests either roled villager or wolf to me. Roled villager obviously a possibility, but wolves didn't go in his direction over first two nights.

[saldana]

Preliminary trust list. We don't have much to go on just yet without a wolf kill, so hopefully Rorschach is having some luck.

Feeling Good

Danny
hoopsguy

Leaning Good

jeff61
DaddyTorgo

No Real Read

Darth Vilus
J23
EagleFan (my EF read is best descibed as "confused")

Slight Distrust

PackerFanatic

Distrust

saldana

Most of my feelings either way are based on vibe alone, I'll admit, so take that into consideration. Some of it is from the vote yesterday. Although the wolves couldn't have known what Lathum would do, nor do we know if they cared (re: sal's allegiance), most of the village was involved in that head to head, and the wolves would have been a part of it. And what happened, a tight vote with a last minute switch that killed a villager (from all outward purposes, no one knew ntn was the cultist).

So I feel suspicious toward late voters on ntn and less suspicious of late voters on sal.

Of course, it could have been villager-villager and this is all meaningless. but that's my read on things so far.

i realize being at the bottom of this list puts me into a certain bias, but this is horrible...what exactly have hoops and danny done besides being hoops and danny to be so trusted?

conversely, what have i dont to be so distrusted?

all i did to set EF off was defend hoops, so hoops is auto-trusted, but me, for defending him, is auto-distrusted?

:confused:

[jeff061]

I only trust Danny because the 2 people that voted for him were killed, which puts a focus on him. I wouldn't expect the wolves to do that, but who knows.

I have absolutely zero trust for Hoops at this point :D. And his opinion on EF seems to be a bit manipulative.

[Chief Rum]

i realize being at the bottom of this list puts me into a certain bias, but this is horrible...what exactly have hoops and danny done besides being hoops and danny to be so trusted?

conversely, what have i dont to be so distrusted?

all i did to set EF off was defend hoops, so hoops is auto-trusted, but me, for defending him, is auto-distrusted?

:confused:

Well, first, recall, I said most of this based on my vibe about how things are going. So it's not entirely something I can explain, and for that reason, the rest of the village should properly take that into consideration. It's a suggestion of the ways I am leaning, not any clearcut proof one or another on anyone.

Danny and hoops (along with jeff) are the only players left in the game who did not to our knowledge vote to kill a villager. Their vote targets are all still uncleared players, but you and I and everyone else have all placed at least one vote that got a villager killed. That's inconclusive overall, but it gives them a little benefit.

Where I find you look bad is more perhaps for being in a circumstance you may have not had much control over, which was yesterday's vote. A tight vote with switching around gets a villager killed. It makes sense to look askance at the other vote target. If two villagers are up, it seems less likely we would see such movement and late voting, even if the critical voter Lathum himself turned out to be a villager. Of course, this could have been manipulated by the wolves to make us waste a day lynching you to be sure, and I am perfectly aware of that. But that doesn't mean it's an angle we should not explore.

Like I said, though, that's just what I can point to in the thread and vote history. But a lot of this is just a vibe. I guess how you read it is based on whatever your opinion of my vibes is.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not going out of my way to be trusted, at the moment. I don't think I've done anything deserving either high or low trust.

I do, however, think that EF was one convenient person to look at in trying to make sense of the Day 1 vote. I would think you could do the same thing looking at either me or Danny, in terms of votes moving later in the day. But I'm not going to make cases with me=bad because it serves no point in my mind. If others want to do so, they should absolutely take the data I posted and run with it.

I'm going to turn my attenion towards Day 2 later this afternoon, and then start working towards a vote if there is no new information published that helps sift through the data.

[Chief Rum]

I'm not going out of my way to be trusted, at the moment. I don't think I've done anything deserving either high or low trust.

I do, however, think that EF was one convenient person to look at in trying to make sense of the Day 1 vote. I would think you could do the same thing looking at either me or Danny, in terms of votes moving later in the day. But I'm not going to make cases with me=bad because it serves no point in my mind. If others want to do so, they should absolutely take the data I posted and run with it.

I'm going to turn my attenion towards Day 2 later this afternoon, and then start working towards a vote if there is no new information published that helps sift through the data.

Agreed on the self-introspection. For instance, I don't include myself in that last because that would be nonsensicle to me. I know I'm good.

But to the rest of you who don't know, you would use my system and note I voted to kill villagers both days, which certainly doesn't help my cause.

[saldana]

Well, first, recall, I said most of this based on my vibe about how things are going. So it's not entirely something I can explain, and for that reason, the rest of the village should properly take that into consideration. It's a suggestion of the ways I am leaning, not any clearcut proof one or another on anyone.

Danny and hoops (along with jeff) are the only players left in the game who did not to our knowledge vote to kill a villager. Their vote targets are all still uncleared players, but you and I and everyone else have all placed at least one vote that got a villager killed. That's inconclusive overall, but it gives them a little benefit.

Where I find you look bad is more perhaps for being in a circumstance you may have not had much control over, which was yesterday's vote. A tight vote with switching around gets a villager killed. It makes sense to look askance at the other vote target. If two villagers are up, it seems less likely we would see such movement and late voting, even if the critical voter Lathum himself turned out to be a villager. Of course, this could have been manipulated by the wolves to make us waste a day lynching you to be sure, and I am perfectly aware of that. But that doesn't mean it's an angle we should not explore.

Like I said, though, that's just what I can point to in the thread and vote history. But a lot of this is just a vibe. I guess how you read it is based on whatever your opinion of my vibes is.

and here is why i almost never put out "lists" like yours...

you throw people out there at various levels of trust that are completely arbritrary, and unless you are challenged on them, you never actually explain anything besides saying its based on vibes...

if i hadnt come back at your list, you would have just left me under the proverbial bus without ever saying that I havent actually done anything myself to deserve being there.


unvote Darth
vote Chief Rum

[Chief Rum]

and here is why i almost never put out "lists" like yours...

you throw people out there at various levels of trust that are completely arbritrary, and unless you are challenged on them, you never actually explain anything besides saying its based on vibes...

if i hadnt come back at your list, you would have just left me under the proverbial bus without ever saying that I havent actually done anything myself to deserve being there.


unvote Darth
vote Chief Rum

If you'll forgive me for saying it, sal, but I think you're getting too emotional about it, or at least that's the way it looks to me.

Anyone using my list alone as a basis for their vote should really be questioning what they are doing or are looking to hide behind someone else's post so as to not take any chances themselves.

As for the list itself, it may appear arbitrary to you, but I have my reasons. I talked about some; I have other feelings about certain things, but nothing but hints at this point. If you want full exposure I could write a book about it, but I don't think any of us here wants that.

Also, if you can't see that Lathum's move yesterday, with a villager dying puts the spotlight on you, then I don't think there's anything else I can see that will get you to recognize that.

[J23]

Danny and hoops (along with jeff) are the only players left in the game who did not to our knowledge vote to kill a villager. Their vote targets are all still uncleared players, but you and I and everyone else have all placed at least one vote that got a villager killed. That's inconclusive overall, but it gives them a little benefit.

In my experience, wolves end up with clean records more often than villagers when it comes to lynch votes. Especially when you're talking about day1 votes, where it is completely luck for the villagers.

[Chief Rum]

In my experience, wolves end up with clean records more often than villagers when it comes to lynch votes. Especially when you're talking about day1 votes, where it is completely luck for the villagers.

Yup, another reason why no one should be taking my list verbatim as the truth. I'm not likely to know much more than anyone else (besides wolves). It's an "at this point" post, and as we progress further in the game, I can take ti and re-evaluate as I go along.

[jeff061]

Actually agree with that. As much as I like having good stuff pointed my way, the bottom line is I just didn't vote for someone who has been killed yet. Don't believe that's a useful metric in a relatively young game where we don't have a single confirmed wolf.

[J23]

I think at this point I want to put a spotlight on some of the more silent players(purposley or not). See how voting goes around and hopefully get them to defend. There's a few to consider but for now:

VOTE J23


I'm not sure how I'm expected to defend this. I missed day1, which may explain why I was particularly quiet that day.

[jeff061]

Anything approaching a logical choice at this point in time is aimed at what people say, thus the people contributing and saying the most will be hung first. I just don't think that's productive.

I certainly have my own list, similar to Chief's, but I hardly have anything substantial to go on. And have nothing to go on either way with people that don't post much.

[EagleFan]

vote saldana

[EagleFan]

He seems to be getting defensive. I will look this over a little more after I get home (or if I can get a couple minutes in now).

[hoopsguy]

#191 - Lathum votes EF 1-0
#193 - PF votes CR 1-1 EF/CR
#194 - DV votes NTN 1-1-1 EF/CR/NTN
#195 - EF votes Saldana 1-1-1-1 EF/CR/NTN/Saldana
#197 - CR votes NTN 2-1-1-1 NTN over EF/CR/Saldana
#199 - Jeff votes Saldana 2-2-1-1 NTN/Saldana over EF/CR
#208 - Saldana votes EF 2-2-2-1 NTN/Saldana/EF over CR
#214 - NTN votes Lathum 2-2-2-1-1 NTN/Saldana/EF over CR/Lathum
#223 - Danny votes Saldana 3-2-2-1-1 Saldana over NTN/EF over CR/Lathum
#227 - J23 votes NTN 3-3-2-1-1 Saldana/NTN over EF over CR/Lathum
#232 - Hoops votes Saldana 4-3-2-1-1 Saldana over NTN over EF over CR/Lathum
#234 - DT votes Saldana 5-3-2-1-1 Saldana over NTN over EF over CR/Lathum
#236 - PF unvotes CR 5-3-2-1 Saldana over NTN over EF over Lathum
#238 - PF votes NTN 5-4-2-1 Saldana over NTN over EF over Lathum
#239 - Lathum unvotes EF, votes Saldana 6-4-1-1 Saldana over NTN over Lathum/EF
#241 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes NTN 6-5-1 Saldana over NTN over Lathum
#244 - Lathum unvotes Saldana, votes NTN 6-5-1 NTN over Saldana over Lathum

EF was once again under some early pressure, but that pressure fell away. Once again neither DT nor DV votes for EF. DV vote was in early, EF was 3rd candidate (but still sort of in it) when DT voted.

I'm going to re-review the D1/D2 stuff looking at another angle or two before voting, but right now I really want to know what side EF is on and would be fine with lynch being the means to reveal that info.

[EagleFan]

ntn's posts, any clue there? Though his odd vote yesterday may have been a way to signal the wolves. Since he didn't know the wolves he may have gotten a wolf vibe from saldana and not wanted to risk voting off a wolf. His getting lynched helped the wolves in the numbers game so it wasn't like he was losing anything by being lynched.

I am here for a bit.

Looks like we are back to 3 with 2 votes each. I kinda like your argument CR. So I will end up on one of the 3... The back and forth this early makes me think of grasping at straws..so at least for day one that is enough reason to steer clear of the EF Hoops debate... Therefore I am left with only one option...

Vote Autumn

I see that Autumn was the day one lottery "winner" but he made a valid point. so I might as well address it. I started by using the list Jackal made on that page (2) EF voted for then unvoted for Danny. So iwas under the assumption that Danny had only 1 vote when I made my comment and vote.

Well phooey! The day I can't even look at the web until now is the day iam among the leaders in vote getters. Well I am only going to be on for a small amount of time until after the lynch.

Ok It seems very likely that the wolves split their votes up. I am falsely assuming that one in each camp the EF voters and the Autumn ones. (I have no idea where the third could be, so am ignoring it for the moment). So I am gonna vote for one of the folks that voted for EF.

Still Danny and hoops seem to be on the side of light and right. So that leaves either saldana and Lathum. Voting for saldana seems to be like not voting. as I assume that at least at some point a defensive vote back will happen leaving us again tied. So I will go in a new direction. Basically because he is the only other possibility of the EF voters.

Vote Lathum

[EagleFan]

dola: or he may have gotten that same vibe off me and not wanted to risk voting one of us out and being wrong.

[saldana]

If you'll forgive me for saying it, sal, but I think you're getting too emotional about it, or at least that's the way it looks to me.

Anyone using my list alone as a basis for their vote should really be questioning what they are doing or are looking to hide behind someone else's post so as to not take any chances themselves.

As for the list itself, it may appear arbitrary to you, but I have my reasons. I talked about some; I have other feelings about certain things, but nothing but hints at this point. If you want full exposure I could write a book about it, but I don't think any of us here wants that.

Also, if you can't see that Lathum's move yesterday, with a villager dying puts the spotlight on you, then I don't think there's anything else I can see that will get you to recognize that.
i dont mind you saying it, because truth be told, it is irritating to me when people set me up for a lynching based on nothing, which is what you are doing...typically the person doing it is a wolf, hence my vote for you.

[Darth Vilus]

I'm still looking at the autumn voters since i'm pretty sure there's at least one wolf in there, just not sure who. I don't count NTN, the wolves didn't know whho he was. I'm voting for

DaddyTorgo

Because he voted Autumn and because i'm getting a weird vibe

[Darth Vilus]

I'll be out again today but tomorrow should be better

[saldana]

He seems to be getting defensive. I will look this over a little more after I get home (or if I can get a couple minutes in now).

thats funny...didnt you react pretty much the exact same way on day one (of all days)...the reason i have backed off of you is because i dont think you would have come out as strongly as you have and drawn attention to yourself....you draw enough attention as it is.

for the record, i have no problem taking votes, or even being lynched when i have done something to warrant it...my issue is with the fact that Chief buried me on his little list without acknowledging that my placement there is based on a dead villagers actions, and not mine...

that is exactly the kind of misdirection and omittance i expect from a wolf.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[The Jackal]

J23 - 1 - (jeff 284)
CR - 1 - (saldana 293)
saldana - 1 - (EF 300)
DT - 1- (DV 306)
EF - 1- (PF 309)

[Danny]

Checking in on lunch real quick, don't have time to look over too much but nice little vote split we got there lol

[Chief Rum]

What I find funny is that for all saldana's moan and cry about my list, it is he who is doing the voting and declaring of wolves here.

He votes for me for less reason than I had for placing him in the Distrust section--I wasn't at the center of the most pivotal vote in the game so far. He has repeatedly described my actions as those a wolf would do, in posts in fairly quick succession. And I haven't even voted for him (unlike saldana apparently, I know my list is very rough right now and I am not willing to vote on it alone), and I'm not sure I was going to anyway.

As ole Willie once said, saldana "doth protest too much, methinks."

sal, would it make you feel better if instead of labelling Trust or Distrust, I had put something along the lines of "learn most if we lynch"? If the village voted to lynch you because your lynch gives us info instead of because the village decided not to trust you based off of my list, would you not still be just as dead? And yet, I'll bet that would indeed make a difference to you.

FWIW, I see a lot of value in what hoops is saying re: EF on that same level. His lynch would also provide us with a lot more information on the voting so far.

At this point, I am undecided where to go with my vote.

[hoopsguy]

I feel like I've waited long enough for someone to come forward with info, and that it just isn't going to be here today. So time to get the vote down.

I've outlined my reasons earlier - I think we learn the most from this vote. I'm potentially open to other candidates, but it would take a bit of convincing.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[Chief Rum]

I feel like I've waited long enough for someone to come forward with info, and that it just isn't going to be here today. So time to get the vote down.

I've outlined my reasons earlier - I think we learn the most from this vote. I'm potentially open to other candidates, but it would take a bit of convincing.

VOTE EAGLEFAN

I'm leaning this way as well, but I'm going to hold off a little longer to see if we have any more thoughts or theories to come to bear.

My gut says EF's good; as sal pointed out, it seems unlikely EF would do the vote switching he has been doing or attracting as much attention as a wolf.

That said, I also noted above how his lynch would give us more info. Plus, we do have a cunning in this game, and certainly EF could eb trying to attract a scan from the seer. Since that does us no good, it would be better to lynch EF than to let him get scanned and throw us further into confusion when he shows as good.

[Chief Rum]

Actually, come to think of it, I guess it's possible we don't have a cunning in this game, as not all roles are in the game. That said, knowing how big a role he plays in The Watchmen and how big those roles are for the wolves in WW, I would be shocked if Ozymandias is not in the game.

So assuming Ozymandias is in the game and we had to guess who was looking to be scanned, EF would go to the top of the list.

[The Jackal]

EF - 2- (PF 309, hoops 313)
J23 - 1 - (jeff 284)
CR - 1 - (saldana 293)
saldana - 1 - (EF 300)
DT - 1- (DV 306)

Going out for a few hours, should be back well before deadline.. don't burn the place down.

[saldana]

chief, the difference between my list and yours, at least in my mind, is that your placement of me is based on someone elses actions...my placement of you is based on your own actions.

i'm going to eat large amounts of dead cow for a while, but will be back well ahead of deadline.

[Chief Rum]

chief, the difference between my list and yours, at least in my mind, is that your placement of me is based on someone elses actions...my placement of you is based on your own actions.

i'm going to eat large amounts of dead cow for a while, but will be back well ahead of deadline.

My own actions, as judged by you to be wolfish actions. I haven't seen anyone else come to that opinion. Truth be told, that's little more than your own wolf vibes, whcih you decry me referencing. But, hey, it's okay if you're doing it, right?

If you got caught in someone else's vote trap as a matter of circumstance, that is certainly disappointing--we have all been there. But, fact is, that vote result does reflect poorly on you, whether by your own actions or by another's. I don't think it's unreasonable to question your allegiance given how that vote played out.

I understand why you would be frustrated, but, damn, man, this ain't your first rodeo. You should know better than to get your haunches up in WW when circumstances outside of your control put undue suspicion on you.

And, FWIW, I still have not voted for you, not sure I intend to at this point, and in fact, the only vote on you (by EF) isn't even because of my list, but because of your reaction to it. Might want to think about that.

[jeff061]

You know what eats a copious amount of dead cow...don't you? A wolf, that's what.



/couldn't resist.

[Danny]

I'm home, i'm super tired. Going to look things over, make my vote and then I have to sleep.

[EagleFan]

You know what eats a copious amount of dead cow...don't you? A wolf, that's what.



/couldn't resist.

Crud, you beat me to it.

[Danny]

I think I'm going to decide between Chief and Saldana here. Saldana is acting pretty defensive, but I seem to remember him being more that was as a villager. Chief, I don't have a great read on him, but never do. What's interesting to me about Chief is this is the second day in a row he had one vote on him. I find it off that if he was a villager, a wolf wouldn't have put out a second early vote on him.

[EagleFan]

This sucks, I think that I am the only villager left... :)

[Chief Rum]

Although I suspect he's going to end up a villager here, I think we learn the most, a lot about Day One and a little about Day Two, if we find out EF's allegiance and rule him out as the cunning (or hopefully he is the cunning... ).

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[jeff061]

UNVOTE J23
VOTE Chief Rum

Don't want to see Eagle run away with this leading to the deadline. I'm just not sold on Saldana.Was going back and forth between CR and DT here.

[Danny]

Vote Chief Rum

I might be making a mistake going away from Saldana, but something just seems a little off about Chief to me. And I have to believe there is a good chance Saldana was scanned after yesterday and so far it seems like EF is the only one jumping over there and I find it highly unlikely he is the seer.

[EagleFan]

Won't be around for the deadline, most likely. I'll throw a list out there for what it is worth. I have no been keeping up with the voting in this game so I am not worth my weight in crap in this game at the moment.

jeff061 - no read and I know this is going to sound very strange but if I remember correctly he defended me early in the game, somewhat, that actually made me distrust him for some stupid reason

DaddyTorgo - I keep forgetting he is in this game, the last time I remember thinking that he ended up being a wolf

PackerFanatic - no read, don't like the hit and run vote though.

saldana - defensive, but it could be that I have been riding his sack; I actually was not going to leave my vote on him that long yesterday as I only wanted to get some reaction out of him, or someone

Darth Vilus - has he played?

Danny - no real read yet, was wrong when I thought there was a connection with him and Lathum

EagleFan - never trust this guy :) even though he is village through and through

hoopsguy - was leaning towards good but I still don't get his double post the other day; didn't someone else give us a double as well? Both prior to the cultist being lynched...

Chief Rum - never an easy read, no feel either way

J23 - is he playing?



Basically, I have no freaking idea at the moment. Just trying to post what is on the top of my head so it's out there (it's way out there).

[Chief Rum]

Y'all are making a mistake.

[jeff061]

DaddyTorgo - I keep forgetting he is in this game, the last time I remember thinking that he ended up being a wolf

Kind of my feeling as well. Depending on what happens tonight I'll probably throw an early vote his way tomorrow.


Y'all are making a mistake.

Right now just trying to make things interesting :D. Shit's been sterile.

[EagleFan]

unvote saldana

vote J23

I can't see the wolves bunching their votes on the top candidates on day one and didn't he miss day one voting? Isn't that the only vote not accounted for that wasn't on the top two or am I missing someone.

At least if you take me out the seer will still be alive, though you will need to nail the wolves from here out as it'll be 5-3 after the night kill if it started with 3 wolves.

Will try to check back in if I can.

[jeff061]

You are one erratic dude. I had just unvoted him mostly because I was the only one on him. Heh.

[EagleFan]

You are one erratic dude. I had just unvoted him mostly because I was the only one on him. Heh.

Everyone had jumped ship from saldana so I figured a different direction may be the way to go.

[hoopsguy]

And behold the sounds of silence.

Not sure if I'll be able to make it back before the deadline. But while I'm not 100% sold on EF = wolf, I'm pretty sure I would stay on him over CR if that is today's decision.

[EagleFan]

And behold the sounds of silence.

Not sure if I'll be able to make it back before the deadline. But while I'm not 100% sold on EF = wolf, I'm pretty sure I would stay on him over CR if that is today's decision.

J23?

[hoopsguy]

Also, we are still missing several votes today. I really would like to see those get in ... WW stinks when people don't establish voting and posting records for analysis.

[PackerFanatic]

I am having a hard time getting a read on anyone yet, and our poor voting up to this point isn't really helping. EF seems to be the best choice, if there is one, today - but CR is still pinging my radar.

[EagleFan]

I am having a hard time getting a read on anyone yet, and our poor voting up to this point isn't really helping. EF seems to be the best choice, if there is one, today - but CR is still pinging my radar.

The best choice would be a wolf so by that definition I am not the best choice. The worst choice would be the seer so by that definition I am at least not the worst choice.

If you gain something by lynching me that can lead to a run on wolves then so be it.

If not we're one bad choice away from losing the game.

[DaddyTorgo]

was having such a nice relaxing night I almost forgot bout the game

[EagleFan]

As of post 338:

Chief Rum 3 - saldana (293), jeff061 (325), Danny (326)
EagleFan 3 - PackerFanatic (309), hoopsguy (313), Chief Rum (324)
J23 1 - EagleFan (330)
DaddyTorgo 1 - Darth Vilus (306)

[Chief Rum]

Like hoops, I sure wish the late voters would have shown up by now. That might have made this post unnecessary. :(

I am Rorschach, the seer.

I scanned hoops and Danny on N1 and N2. They both came up good (although they could still either of them be the cunning).

That's why they're good trust. Hoops made sense early on to get a read on him. I picked Danny N2 because he's a good player to trust if you can. I went away from scanning EF because he didn't as much suspicious on D2, and away from Sal because Lathum was a villager.

When Danny came up good, I looked at the votes from D1. Including me, all EF voters were cleared... Except Sal. Going on the split wolf vote theory, I felt he was a likely wolf if EF is a villager and maybe even if he isn't.

Recasting the D2 vote with the hypothetical assumption Sal was a wolf, I noticed PF made a key pate vote on ntn to get him back in range of Sal who was leading the vote. This set up sal's self defense switch and lAthum's maybe unfortunate decision.

None of which i could explain about my list before. So there u go.

I'm probably out until past deadline. I still think EF is the right choice bcuz that will be like a scan of both Sal and pf.

[EagleFan]

unvote J23

vote Chief Rum

Not my first choice as I am not seeing what others are but I never have a good read on him.

[EagleFan]

Ouch, I wish you hadn't come out. I was debating about claiming as seer if I made it past this vote hoping that the wolves would take me out in the morning and the seer could get another scan in.

Though that would risk you outing yourself to try to counter claim against me; which is why I was only debating about that play.

[EagleFan]

dola: The claim after the vote would have been if I survived the vote. Hoping the real seer would wait until after the wolves made their morning attack to say anything.

Maybe thinking too complex there. Definitely not using the "KISS" theory there.

[J23]

Popped in to make sure I got my vote in. Why are we putting more votes on the seer?

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE EAGLEFAN

[hoopsguy]

Like hoops, I sure wish the late voters would have shown up by now. That might have made this post unnecessary. :(

I am Rorschach, the seer.

I scanned hoops and Danny on N1 and N2. They both came up good (although they could still either of them be the cunning).

That's why they're good trust. Hoops made sense early on to get a read on him. I picked Danny N2 because he's a good player to trust if you can. I went away from scanning EF because he didn't as much suspicious on D2, and away from Sal because Lathum was a villager.

When Danny came up good, I looked at the votes from D1. Including me, all EF voters were cleared... Except Sal. Going on the split wolf vote theory, I felt he was a likely wolf if EF is a villager and maybe even if he isn't.

Recasting the D2 vote with the hypothetical assumption Sal was a wolf, I noticed PF made a key pate vote on ntn to get him back in range of Sal who was leading the vote. This set up sal's self defense switch and lAthum's maybe unfortunate decision.

None of which i could explain about my list before. So there u go.

I'm probably out until past deadline. I still think EF is the right choice bcuz that will be like a scan of both Sal and pf.

I saw this pretty clearly when re-reading the posts today. The trust list today, and then going back and seeing a post trusting me yesterday. It is either a legit seer play or a well conceived bluff. I was waiting to see if anyone responded negatively to your posts in a manner that suggested seer, but no one that voted for you seemed like a wronged party.

[EagleFan]

Oh crap, thought it was DT that claimed seer. Couldn't figure out why he claimed it now.

[hoopsguy]

Jeff, I assume you are just trying to properly digest these events? But will make a proper play before the end of the day and not lynch the person revealing as seer without a really good reason?

[hoopsguy]

J23, I assume you will be getting a vote in over the next couple of minutes?

[jeff061]

I don't like either of these choices.

[EagleFan]

unvote CR

vote saldana

[J23]

vote Eaglefan

[jeff061]

Jeff, I assume you are just trying to properly digest these events? But will make a proper play before the end of the day and not lynch the person revealing as seer without a really good reason?

Yeah I am going to unvote him, likely go eagle. I wish there was someone else.

[EagleFan]

Good luck village.

[jeff061]

Unvote Chief Rum
Vote DaddyTorgo

[J23]

Do we have enough around to move it off EF if that's the consensus? DT has a vote on him from DV currently if that would sway the vote enough.

[EagleFan]

As you'll find out soon, I am Nelson Gardner.

[PackerFanatic]

Guess that is why something seemed off about CR...

UNVOTE EAGLEFAN
VOTE SALDANA

[saldana]

unvote CR
vote EF

[J23]

unvote EF
vote DaddyTorgo

[jeff061]

I wasn't sold on CR. Seer crossed my mind for him, but not nearly enough to bail.

I wish we had more participation. I really only voted CR to add an alternative to a bandwagon forming on Eagle and I felt he would generate more discussion than the alternatives at the time simply because he's engaged.

[saldana]

anyone have a count

[saldana]

unvote EF, vote DT

[EagleFan]

unvote sal

vote DT

[saldana]

not sure if i buy the reveal by eagle, but we can fight about that tomorrow

[EagleFan]

though I like my sal vote better...

[saldana]

that was a fun 5 minutes...i love deadlines

[EagleFan]

Jackal is going to hate us tonight with these votes to figure out.

[saldana]

i guess if we wanted to be nice, we could figure it out for him

[J23]

not it.

[Chief Rum]

I forgot to explain my slight trust vote.

When Sal and ntn are tied late yesterday at 3-3, hoops voted Sal to put him ahead. The next vote was DT, also on Sal moving him to 5-3. that's an unlikely wolf move by DT with minutes to deadline if Sal is a wolf. So if Sal is a wolf, hoops is not the cunning and DT almost certainly a villager. Jeff61 had a similarly good day 2 vote, putting up Sal above a bunch of candidates.

Sorry EF I was pretty sure you were a villager, but if Sal is a wolf I couldn't go right at him like that without tipping him off. :(

[EagleFan]

If I got it straight...

DaddyTorgo 5 - Darth Vilus (306), jeff061 (355), J23 (360), saldana (363), EagleFan (364)
EagleFan 4 - PackerFanatic (309), hoopsguy (313), Chief Rum (324), DaddyTorgo (345)
Chief Rum 1 - Danny (326)
saldana 1 - PackerFanatic (358)

[saldana]

i have:

DT - 5 - Darth, jeff, j23, Sal, EF
EF - 3 - Hoops, CR, DT
Sal -1 - packer
Chief - 1 - Danny

[saldana]

EF...you have packer twice...he ended on me

[PackerFanatic]

Wow, that many switched off Sal?

[J23]

EF, you have PF twice.

[hoopsguy]

EF, you are showing an amazing ability to avoid the lynch so far this game. I'll feel much, much better about that trend if DT is a wolf.

[jeff061]

Pretty big if on Sal being a wolf though.

If DT is a villager it points a bigger crosshair on EF, this was a lot of last second movement to clear him. Far more than Saldana if I recall.

[jeff061]

EF, you are showing an amazing ability to avoid the lynch so far this game. I'll feel much, much better about that trend if DT is a wolf.

My thoughts exactly.

[saldana]

i gotta install my new router, be offline for a few, hopefully jackal gets back soon

[EagleFan]

EF, you are showing an amazing ability to avoid the lynch so far this game. I'll feel much, much better about that trend if DT is a wolf.

I don't have a feel for DT so I would not be surprised either way to be honest.

[The Jackal]

Dinner ran long, then had to pick up ingredients for my famous chili - processing results soon.

[EagleFan]

Pretty big if on Sal being a wolf though.

If DT is a villager it points a bigger crosshair on EF, this was a lot of last second movement to clear him. Far more than Saldana if I recall.

If I was a wolf I can't see there being that much movement to save me. They would just sever ties and move on I would think, why bother risking standing out.

[jeff061]

True. I think I've only played a single game as a wolf that I recall.

[The Jackal]

DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)

[The Jackal]

Who will it be today? Things are getting very tense, and no one seems to be any closer to deciding who is truly at fault.

Two have posited their true identities, and there seems to be belief in their stories, as neither head to the guillotine this eve.

In their place, a late candidate, Daddy Torgo.

As he heads to his doom, he shakes his head quietly and makes little effort at resistance, accepting his fate.

Chop.

DaddyTorgo was a vanilla villager!

[The Jackal]

This eve promises to be your most sleepless yet. Is there any hope left?

Night actions due by Friday, 930 AM EST.

[The Jackal]

Just an FYI, I'm going to Philly for the weekend, the deadline tomorrow will get processed when I get back from dinner (no idea when that will be), and then we will have a night phase running until Monday morning. I'm sure people would rather play WW than watch the superbowl, but I'm sorry.

[saldana]

whats the superbowl?

[EagleFan]

This is not going well. Is this a saldana game? Jackal wants to make a run at your record. :)

We need to run off three straight or it is game over.

[The Jackal]

This is not going well. Is this a saldana game? Jackal wants to make a run at your record. :)

We need to run off three straight or it is game over.

(Villagers have won 5 of the 6 games that I've run, though the two Labyrinth's weren't exactly normal victory conditions)

[jeff061]

Initial thoughts for tomorrow, assuming CR's seer admission plays out and he's not screwing with us.

EF, I'd think there would be at least 1 Wolf in there voting for him. Disagreements?

From that group we have
Hoops: Cleared by seer
CR: Should be seer(pending night)
DT: Dead villager

It's so easy to blame hoops for this shit, cause he's hoops. But we should consider the possibility that he's cunning.

Further more, a longer stretch of an idea I've been toying with since yesterday. Possibly Eagle and Hoops both being wolves and trying to play both sides of the fence somewhat. One's death paints the other in a better light.

Just tossing ideas out there. I'm sure there will be looks at people who piled onto DT as well.

And while it's to late for "vibes". But since voting for J23 I've been getting a "wolf or seer" vibe from him.

[EagleFan]

(Villagers have won 5 of the 6 games that I've run, though the two Labyrinth's weren't exactly normal victory conditions)

The streak has to start somewhere... :)

[EagleFan]

Initial thoughts for tomorrow, assuming CR's seer admission plays out and he's not screwing with us.

EF, I'd think there would be at least 1 Wolf in there voting for him. Disagreements?

From that group we have
Hoops: Cleared by seer
CR: Should be seer(pending night)
DT: Dead villager

It's so easy to blame hoops for this shit, cause he's hoops. But we should consider the possibility that he's cunning.

Further more, a longer stretch of an idea I've been toying with since yesterday. Possibly Eagle and Hoops both being wolves and trying to play both sides of the fence somewhat. One's death paints the other in a better light.

Just tossing ideas out there. I'm sure there will be looks at people who piled onto DT as well.

And while it's to late for "vibes". But since voting for J23 I've been getting a "wolf or seer" vibe from him.

The thing is that I haven't been playing the other side against hoops. Since my day one vote on him I have said that I see him leaning towards the good side basd on his vote against me.

[jeff061]

Yeah, just a perception I had for whatever reason. That if one of you died the other would look good for it.

I feel more strongly about Hoops right now because I really do think at least 1 would stay back on you, no matter your guilt. But we have another 24 hours. I'm sure other theories will spring up.

[EagleFan]

All signs point to saldana at this point, in my eyes at least.

If I had to guess I would say J23 as well.

If there is a 3rd, not sure yet (I'll be positive once it's announced... :) )

[EagleFan]

PF maybe?

Oh, and Lathum has been awfully quiet today... ;)

[EagleFan]

Sorry, probably talking too much. Going to hop on XBL for a while, good night all.

[hoopsguy]

I would really love to be cunning wolf one of these times in a game with a traditional seer role. But that, much like the traditional duke role, continues to evade me.

Anyway, I don't put a ton of stock in EF's reveal. The wolves know what roles are in the game and which are not. Therefore, EF won't be countered tomorrow but that proves very little.

I'm hoping new information emerges tomorrow, but I'm not hopeful at this point. This has been a very bad 24 hours for us, would only have been worse if DT was a roled villager.

[DaddyTorgo]

Wow - wtf!?!?!?

How'd I get lynched with like 5 minutes to go till deadline.

Wow.

[saldana]

I would really love to be cunning wolf one of these times in a game with a traditional seer role. But that, much like the traditional duke role, continues to evade me.

Anyway, I don't put a ton of stock in EF's reveal. The wolves know what roles are in the game and which are not. Therefore, EF won't be countered tomorrow but that proves very little.

I'm hoping new information emerges tomorrow, but I'm not hopeful at this point. This has been a very bad 24 hours for us, would only have been worse if DT was a roled villager.

this was the point i was alluding to earlier when i said we could fight about it tomorrow...he made a reveal of the one role that has no chance of being confirmed

since the wolves know what roles arent in the game, he picked the one that we cant do anything except leave him alive to verify.

[EagleFan]

this was the point i was alluding to earlier when i said we could fight about it tomorrow...he made a reveal of the one role that has no chance of being confirmed

since the wolves know what roles arent in the game, he picked the one that we cant do anything except leave him alive to verify.

Actually, Jackal picked the role, or was involved in it with a dice roll (or however he picked them).

[EagleFan]

dola: Ater the night kill it's going to be 3ither 5-3 or 6-2 (my guess is 5-3). If I am right, we have to nail the three wolves on th enext three lynches or the wolves win. There is one hting that I can guarantee, if you lynch me the game will be over and the wolves will have thrown a shutout.

[Danny]

Ugg, this was not a good night. I find it odd that we had all this late movement towards DT who I pretty clearly read as a villager as he tends to be more active and involved as a wolf. I think we need to look back at EagleFan and Saldana for tomorrow. I think at least one of them has to be a wolf.

[Danny]

And quite interesting is that neither had a meaningful vote for each other today and both could be wolves. My guess is if they are both wolves, they know it's going to be the two of them in a showdown tomorrow and they will likely vote each other early to distance that possibility

[Danny]

Day 1

Autumn - 6 - PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
EF - 4- (hoops 92[/COLOR], saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)

I am putting CR as green. I'm pretty sure everyone other than me checked in after his reveal and I'm not the seer, so his reveal looks good.

[Danny]

Day 2 ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)

[Danny]

Day 3
DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)

[Danny]

Saldana did place a key vote on EF during day 1, so that might detract some thunder from the idea that they are both wolves. But it did sure look like today that they tried to avoid getting one another lynched.

[Chief Rum]

I don't have much to add at this point, although I assume I'll be dust in the morning. Although you all have to be aware of the possibility of the cunning having been scanned, I think you have enough candidates besides Danny and hoops to look elsewhere for a bit. I really do think both of them are good, on top of having read them as good.

I know there has been talk about DT being good means EF is bad or something like that. But I would also point out that DT being good was also in my scenario that had sal has a wolf.

[The Jackal]

Going to process results a bit early today since I need to pack and stuff, and everyone's gotten their actions in.

[The Jackal]

You wake up, and to your relief.. everyone is alive.

You do not know what has occurred, but it seems something has finally gone in your favor.

Day four begins!

[The Jackal]

Going to be posting from my phone today, so if someone else could take care of the vote counts during the day and at deadline, that would be appreciated.

[saldana]

2nd bodyguard? i cant imagine that with multiple wolves out there that none of them put in an order

[jeff061]

He said everyone got their actions in...so. Weird. Does this have any tie in with the CR reveal?

[hoopsguy]

Completely not what I expected. I guess I'm going to take a look at the roles and see if there is anything that could explain how all are accounted for in a game with no bodyguard and no conversions.

[jeff061]

Got it. They tried to attack Manhattan and he can't be night killed.

[jeff061]

Then again he hasn't been revealed. I don't know.

[jeff061]

Hidden Manhattan power?

[J23]

I'm guessing it has to be Manhattan. From reading the descriptions it says that he has unknown powers. Maybe inherits the other dead hero powers or something? That could have given him BG once Lathum died. The only other alternative, as jeff said, was a nightkill on Manhattan that failed. Maybe the wolves figured out who he was, but he wasn't considered revealed, which means he couldn't be nightkilled?

[PackerFanatic]

Since the wolves now know who I am, there is no point for me to hide anymore - I am Dr. Manhattan and once The Comedian was killed, I gained his BG power. I wasn't intending on using it last night, but once CR came out, I figured it would help us gain a little more insight to see if he truly is the seer. Since my block was successfully, that is obviously clear.

I cannot block again tonight, and now that I am revealed, the wolves do have a way to kill me as well (although I don't know what it is). I still have my duke powers as well.

[PackerFanatic]

Had they tried to NK me, they would have failed and I would have been revealed to them as well...but they specifically attacked CR, as I was guarding him.

[EagleFan]

Why would they not go after CR?

Did they go after that rogue wolf? Would that lead to no night kill?

[EagleFan]

Oh, PF explained it while I sat on the reply. :)

[EagleFan]

This is the first good news of the game. We now have...

jeff061
PackerFanatic - duke
saldana
Darth Vilus
Danny - seer cleared
EagleFan - hunter
hoopsguy - seer cleared
Chief Rum - seer
J23

That leaves at least 2 wolves in the group of J23, jeff061, saldana and DV.

Still a possible cunning among Danny and hoops but that is for us to worry about at a later time.

Plus we have the CR scan result to see for last night.

[jeff061]

Hopefully CR didn't give up and did send a command in. Could be a huge night.

[hoopsguy]

Doc Manhatten also has unknown powers, which is only thing I can see that could fit. There was a role that could "disable" but it was only a day phase option.

I want to take a minute to talk about the roles that we've seen in the game so far and what we think might be in the game.

14 players
Dead Villagers - Bodyguard, Fake Seer, 2 vanilla villagers
Dead Wolves - Cultist
Unconfirmed Reveals - Seer, Hunter

Now that we know that the Fake Seer and Cultist were in the game, would anyone care to speculate about what the starting ratios would have been for villager/wolf?

[EagleFan]

vote saldana

[hoopsguy]

OK, update to post #427:

14 players:
Dead Villagers - Bodyguard, Fake Seer, 2 vanilla villagers
Dead Wolves - Cultist
Unconfirmed Reveals - Seer, Hunter, Uber-role (Manhatten)

I'm not well versed in Watchmen, but I expected Manhatten to be in the game. And just about every game of WW has a seer, so unless someone challenges CR on it I'm prepared to accept that reveal.

Now that we know that the Fake Seer and Cultist were in the game, along with a villager uber-role, would anyone care to speculate about what the starting ratios would have been for villager/wolf?

[jeff061]

I am leaning very heavily towards Saldana right now. But I want to wait for CR.

[hoopsguy]

Packer, how were you sure that the wolves knew who you were? Often, a "block" in games doesn't reveal identity to either side.

[jeff061]

That leaves at least 2 wolves in the group of J23, jeff061, saldana and DV.

Still a possible cunning among Danny and hoops but that is for us to worry about at a later time.

This is what it boils down to right now and what we need to focus on.

[hoopsguy]

jeff, why are you leaning towards Saldana over EF?

I'm also waiting to see what CR might have in terms of scans, but I'm curious why you are gravitating towards one candidate (Sal) over another (EF) at this stage.

Is it tied to his reveal, or other reasons?

[hoopsguy]

I think everyone more or less agrees on the pool of people to look at for today, barring a clear target being offered by the seer (I put EF in the pool he provided) but I'm curious about why people are drifting towards candidates with the currently available info. It makes for good discussion while waiting for west coast CR to get in here :)

[jeff061]

That'd be a pretty big bluff revealing as hunter with a decent amount of villagers alive that could be one as well. But that's why I haven't cast a vote yet, waiting on CR.

Wish I had more background on how EF usually plays, he seems to have played a very erratic game so far.

[PackerFanatic]

Packer, how were you sure that the wolves knew who you were? Often, a "block" in games doesn't reveal identity to either side.

I was told they now know who I am. I would guess based on my role - pretty much any type of other action against me would reveal me to them, so it's not surprising that this did too.

[hoopsguy]

That'd be a pretty big bluff revealing as hunter with a decent amount of villagers alive that could be one as well. But that's why I haven't cast a vote yet, waiting on CR.

Wish I had more background on how EF usually plays, he seems to have played a very erratic game so far.

No, it isn't. The wolves know what roles are in the game per Jackal. So there is no risk in fake revealing for the wolves. I'll find the quote if this isn't understood by all.

[Chief Rum]

Wow, okay.... I thought last night's post was my last in this game, short of maybe a goodbye post. Thank you, PF, and sorry for having you on my slight distrust list.

Two things of note beyond the event itself. One, Eaglefan came up good. Still subject to cunning possibility, of course, but he is good. Two, the description I was given indicated that two approached me at once. Now, that could have been the wolf killer and Dr Manhattan, but my impression from the way my PM read was that the "two" was actually referencing the number of wolves. I thought that might be useful information.

Not that that last matters much--we have to get to two wolves before we get to three.

We need to keep in mind that Ozymandias is a very powerful figure as well. If Dr. Manhattan has this nice power set, then certainly the wolves will have cards up their sleeves as well, and I have a feeling they're going to be using them big time now.

[hoopsguy]

A note that I will add to the rules section: The wolves will know which roles are not in the game, should there be any.

I changed my mind, if anyone saw the original post.


Post #58

[Chief Rum]

That'd be a pretty big bluff revealing as hunter with a decent amount of villagers alive that could be one as well. But that's why I haven't cast a vote yet, waiting on CR.

Wish I had more background on how EF usually plays, he seems to have played a very erratic game so far.

As someone who has played with EF a ton, I would describe his play this game as atypical of him. Not that he plays vanilla, but he's certainly not normally this erratic.

[hoopsguy]

Cool, glad that CR got a scan in and agree that we move on to other candidates at this point rather than sweating cunning wolf options at this point in the game.

[Chief Rum]

Post #58

Yup, I had remembered that from the rules and when you brought it up last night, that came back.

That and the cunning means we can only clear two of the three seer scans so far (including EF), at least based on reveal as well.

[jeff061]

No, it isn't. The wolves know what roles are in the game per Jackal. So there is no risk in fake revealing for the wolves. I'll find the quote if this isn't understood by all.

That's right, someone(you?) had mentioned that. I'm leaning towards either Hoops or Eagle being cunning(based on recent scan). Based on purposely making waves, Eagle. I still trust Danny to a certain degree...going back to the first day vote where the only 2 people that voted for him were dead the next day.

[Chief Rum]

Cool, glad that CR got a scan in and agree that we move on to other candidates at this point rather than sweating cunning wolf options at this point in the game.

A not so hard stance for you to get behind, I am sure. :devil:

(oh, and I agree with you ;) )

[hoopsguy]

Day 1: <table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset;"> Originally Posted by The Jackal http://operationsports.com/fofc/images/styles/sideline/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?p=2418243#post2418243)
Autumn - 6 - (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Day 2: <table border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset;"> Originally Posted by The Jackal http://operationsports.com/fofc/images/styles/sideline/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://operationsports.com/fofc/showthread.php?p=2418802#post2418802)
ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)
</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
Day 3:
DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)

I expect formatting is going to be funky on this one, but wanted to post all the final vote stuff in one thread for reference.

[jeff061]

So let's simplify:

That leaves at least 2 wolves in the group of J23, jeff061, saldana and DV.

Vote Saldana.

I am out for a couple hours. I have some thoughts floating around in my head that direct me quite squarely at Saldana and J23 out of this group. I'll likely put them in writing later.

[hoopsguy]

A not so hard stance for you to get behind, I am sure. :devil:

(oh, and I agree with you ;) )

I'm just not going to start mounting defenses unless people really want me to do so.

I've got more free time to work on this now than I've had all week, and I want to be on the offensive rather than defensive if that is agreeable to our group.

[Danny]

I was actually leaning towards voting EagleFan today, but at this point, it doesn't make sense to target a potential cunning so I will be voting elsewhere. Avoiding the cunning discussion for now, our potential votes are Jeff, Darth, Saldana and J23. Based on everything, I see little reason not to vote Saldana.

[hoopsguy]

The first-glance takeaway from the votes is that if Saldana is not a wolf, then we haven't had votes on anyone (at the end) who sits in our current suspect list.

We've got a solid (if imperfect) trust list right now: CR, PF, EF, Danny, and me. That is five trusted, four not trusted.

[Danny]

And I agree with Jeff that J23 and Saldana both look like potential wolves right now. I don't have a read one way or the other on Darth, but he's been pretty inactive so far.

[Danny]

I'm going to

Vote Saldana

[hoopsguy]

I'm not ready to jump on the Saldana bandwagon quite yet.

Doesn't mean I won't get there eventually, but I want to put some thought into Day 2 and Day 3 in the context of the new info we have this morning.

[hoopsguy]

Vote history from Day 3:
#283 - Saldana votes DV 1-0
#284 - jeff votes J23 1-1 DV/J23
#293 - Saldana unvotes DV, votes CR 1-1 J23/CR
#300 - EF votes Saldana 1-1-1 J23/CR/Saldana
#306 - DV votes DT 1-1-1-1 J23/CR/Saldana/DT
#309 - PF votes EF 1-1-1-1-1 J23/CR/Saldana/DT/EF
#313 - Hoops votes EF 2-1-1-1-1 EF over J23/CR/Saldana/DT
#324 - CR votes EF 3-1-1-1-1 EF over J23/CR/Saldana/DT
#325 - Jeff unvotes J23, votes CR 3-2-1-1 EF over CR over Saldana/DT
#326 - Danny votes CR 3-3-1-1 EF/CR over Saldana/DT
#330 - EF unvotes Saldana, votes J23 3-3-1-1 EF/CR over DT/J23
#341 - EF unvotes J23, votes CR 4-3-1 CR over EF over DT
#345 - DT votes EF, 4-4-1 CR/EF over DT
#351 - EF unvotes CR, votes Saldana. 4-3-1-1 EF over CR over DT/Saldana
#352 - J23 votes EF. 5-3-1-1 EF over CR over DT/Saldana
#355 - Jeff unvotes CR, votes DT 5-2-2-1 EF over CR/DT over Saldana
#358 - PF unvotes EF, votes Saldana 4-2-2-2 EF over CR/DT/Saldana
#359 - Saldana unvotes CR, votes EF 5-2-2-1 EF over DT/Saldana over CR
#360 - J23 unvotes EF, votes DT 4-3-2-1 EF over DT over Saldana over CR
#363 - Saldana unvotes EF, votes DT 4-3-2-1 DT over EF over Saldana over CR
#364 - EF unvotes Saldana, votes DT 5-3-1-1 DT over EF over CR/Saldana

[Danny]

I'm off to work.

[hoopsguy]

Here is another look at the final votes.

Day 1:
Autumn - 6 (PF 82, CR 95, ntn 100, DV 111, DT 154, EF 157)
- Known Good = DT
- Presumed Good = PF, CR
- Scanned Good = EF
- Unknown = DV
- Unattached Bad = NTN
EF - 4- (hoops 92, saldana 97, Lathum 104, Danny 112)
- Known Good = Lathum
- Scanned Good = Hoops, Danny
- Unknown = Saldana
Danny - 2 - (Autumn 117, Thomkal 123)
- Known Good = Autumn, Thomkal
hoopsguy - 1 - (jeff 89)
- Unknown = Jeff
Did not vote = J23

Day 2:
ntn - 6 - (DV 194, CR 197, J23 227, PF 238, saldana 241, Lathum 244)
- Known Good = Lathum
- Presumed Good = CR, PF
- Unknown = DV, J23, Saldana
saldana - 5 - (EF 195, jeff 199, Danny 223, hoops 232, DT 234)
- Known Good = DT
- Scanned Good = EF, Danny, Hoops
- Unknown = Jeff
Lathum - 1- (ntn 214)
- Unattached Bad = NTN

Day 3:
DT - 5- (DV 306, jeff 355, J23 360, saldana 363, EF 364)
- Scanned Good = EF
- Unknown = DV, Jeff, J23, Saldana
EF - 3- (hoops 313, CR 324, DT 345)
- Known Good = DT
- Presumed Good = CR
- Scanned Good = Hoops
CR - 1 - (Danny 326)
- Scanned Good = Danny
saldana - 1 - (PF 358)
- Presumed Good = PF

[PackerFanatic]

Sal is looking the most suspicious right now...he switched votes three times on day 3, going to cleared villagers each time. It's hard to tell who would be another wolf between Jeff, J23, and DV, with DV being mostly away, but I am leaning toward Jeff - which is why I am going to vote for him to get another candidate on the block today.

VOTE JEFF061

[hoopsguy]

Looking at it this way, I'm struck by DV/J23/Saldana all voting together on Days 2 and 3.

Saldana was fighting for his life those days, so I have a hard time coming down too hard on him directly. But if he is a wolf, it sure seems like he was getting some help.

[Chief Rum]

Just referencing again my thoughts from the Day One vote on EF.

EF was one of the two primary vote targets. We have the theory that the wolves will have split up some. We know the voters on Danny were all villagers. The only other player who didn't vote on either Autumn or EF was jeff61.

My stance has been that jeff61 is a villager. That's the vibe I have gotten off of him. And if saldana is indeed a wolf, then jeff also looks better because he was the one who introduced saldana to the voting process on Day 2, and he never switched.

If jeff is a villager, then our remaining wolves (whether two or three) probably split between Autumn and EF, on the wolf vote split theory for Day One.

EF was voted for by myself, saldana, hoops and Danny. sal is the only one without any clearance at all, and that's why I targeted him the other day.

The wrench is that one of the other three (including EF) could be the cunning, and maybe be our wolf in the vote. So then sal could be innocent after all. Plus, I had suspected PF based on his late vote on Day 2 for ntn that looked like it was setting up to save saldana, but we now know PF is good. Which means that the three votes to save sal came from PF, sal himself (self def) and Lathum, and two of them are confirmed good guys. So there was no clear wolf push to save sal. That could mean the wolves didn't want to risk it. Or it could be there are only two of them, so what push coul dbe made? Or, of course, it could mean sal is innocent.

[Chief Rum]

Again, it's just a vibe. But DV has been very quiet, more than usual, and that has stood out to me. He definitely could be someone to look into, trying to play a quiet game of wolf survival.

[hoopsguy]

Looking at it this way, I'm struck by DV/J23/Saldana all voting together on Days 2 and 3.

Saldana was fighting for his life those days, so I have a hard time coming down too hard on him directly. But if he is a wolf, it sure seems like he was getting some help.

Post #352 - J23 put up a vote that, in hindsight, is very protective of Saldana. Pushed margin to 5-3 EF over Saldana, and then changed vote late to help bury villager DT.

Again, the J23 stuff is predicated on Saldana as wolf. If Saldana shows as villager, this is not as big a deal. But it is pushing me towards Saldana as the vote to learn something today.

[hoopsguy]

The wrench is that one of the other three (including EF) could be the cunning, and maybe be our wolf in the vote. So then sal could be innocent after all. Plus, I had suspected PF based on his late vote on Day 2 for ntn that looked like it was setting up to save saldana, but we now know PF is good. Which means that the three votes to save sal came from PF, sal himself (self def) and Lathum, and two of them are confirmed good guys. So there was no clear wolf push to save sal. That could mean the wolves didn't want to risk it. Or it could be there are only two of them, so what push coul dbe made? Or, of course, it could mean sal is innocent.

This is where I'm still struggling, CR. I'm trying to play with the idea that we don't go hunting for the cunning wolf, but it sure is in my thoughts as they relate to EF. Escaping pressure 3 times, revealing a role that is dubious to be in the game, being "saved" last night by a very questionable group ...

I've typed, and then erased, analysis a couple of times that drifted into this territory.

[EagleFan]

I don't think this should be a runaway vote but put two of the "untrusted" list against each other.

[EagleFan]

hoops keeps popping back on my radar with his stubborn tunnel vision on me. I guess that's a good way to keep people from looking at you...

[EagleFan]

Funny how I remember being in a game with him where he insisted that we not even talk about the possibility of a cunning in a very similar situation and that we only should focus on the uncleared players. Now he keeps harping on me, a seer cleared player (the same as him). The only difference between us is that I have a role and one that can only be dangerous to the wolves if I am left alive to the end. They also have two other roles now that they need to worry about with CR and PF so they don't want to have to waste a NK on me but need me out of the way before the end. I guess that would give the wolves reason to want to keep me in the spotlight for a possible lynch.

[hoopsguy]

EF, I'm not trying to get the vote on you today. I'm just explaining why I'm having some challenges with analyzing the data in a black/white manner.

[EagleFan]

I may not be back on much today and I will be away at the deadline (poker night). If I can get on sometime this afternoon for a small break I will, if not I may try to get online before going out.

Hopefully we catch a wolf tonight.

[hoopsguy]

I could get behind either a DV or Jeff vote today, and will probably go with one of them as the alternate candidate to Saldana. I agree that we want something that looks like a race early on to see what kind of movement might emerge late.

[EagleFan]

EF, I'm not trying to get the vote on you today. I'm just explaining why I'm having some challenges with analyzing the data in a black/white manner.

As I said, I have seen a very similar scenario in which you didn't even want to entertain any worry about the cunning until we got through the uncleared list. There must be some reason for the change (can't remember if you were a wolf then or not; so it could be a good or bad reason for the change).

[hoopsguy]

As I said, I have seen a very similar scenario in which you didn't even want to entertain any worry about the cunning until we got through the uncleared list. There must be some reason for the change (can't remember if you were a wolf then or not; so it could be a good or bad reason for the change).

I almost always play the percentages. Chasing the cunning is a low percentage play and it won't drive my vote on a day where we are not on the brink of losing (or so I assume).

But ignoring it with vote and ignoring it when trying to evaluate data are two different things. I'm still trying to make sense of voting patterns that are surprising to me on a number of levels.

[saldana]

my question to Chief Rum:

does your scan come up as "EF is good" or does your scan say "EF is the marine"?

that makes a big difference to me in terms of whether or not i buy his reveal or not

[Chief Rum]

my question to Chief Rum:

does your scan come up as "EF is good" or does your scan say "EF is the marine"?

that makes a big difference to me in terms of whether or not i buy his reveal or not

No role info. Just says he's good. Same message I got for hoops and Danny.

[jeff061]

Not sure how that really comes into play anyways. We know how cunning and seer works. Do we really think hints are going to be dropped in during the reveal? Would defeat the purpose of the roles.

That aside, we aren't really focusing on the cunning's today.

[saldana]

Not sure how that really comes into play anyways. We know how cunning and seer works. Do we really think hints are going to be dropped in during the reveal? Would defeat the purpose of the roles.

That aside, we aren't really focusing on the cunning's today.

you might not be, but that doesnt mean i am not. everything to this point in EFs game points to him as the cunning to me.

1. he came out very aggressively, which can be a tactic to lure a scan.
2. he claimed a role that cannot be validated, and, if he is a wolf, he would know could not be countered.
3. he scanned "good"

[jeff061]

Don't necessarily disagree. Will worry about that tomorrow :D.

[hoopsguy]

OK, lets see if we can get this going.

I'm putting Jeff out there among the other candidates because I think he is less likely to be on the same side as Saldana/J23 or Saldana/DV. If I was convinced Saldana was a wolf I would try to avoid introducing second candidates entirely. Here, I'm trying to put out an alternate unproven candidate who has higher wolf probability (in my mind, at least) than the others if Saldana does turn out to be a villager.

VOTE JEFF061

[saldana]

fwiw hoops, i would have preferred Darth...as i said yesterday, he is playing a very similar game to what he did in Dune, where he was a wolf...i did have the luxury in that one of knowing he was a wolf, so maybe i am seeing something that isnt there, but i dont have a problem going with jeff either (as long as it isnt me :))

[jeff061]

Well, wanted to wait to hear back from Darth. PM'd him earlier and wanted to make sure we are in agreement to go public.

But I haven't heard anything back, I want to leave a lot of time before the deadline and I don't want to be railroaded. I'm Laurie and Darth is my man. We are both villagers.

[jeff061]

So yeah. I voted Saldana. J23 would be fine by me as well, but the heat's been on Saldana for awhile now.

[Chief Rum]

Damn... we also can't confirm these. And this would be an easy set up for the wolves. They can PM each other anyway.

[Chief Rum]

Not saying you're not who you say you are, jeff, just noting this doesn't really clear anything up. It in fact adds another layer of complexion.

[jeff061]

Yeah I know. Heh. I mean it adds a layer of complexity for you guys. For me it was really convenient. I haven't gone out of my way to advertise this.

But yeah, that's why I wanted to leave plenty of room before deadline.

[jeff061]

Don't think I'm a huge fan of the wolves knowing which roles are in play. Too be honest.

[Chief Rum]

We now have four separate groups to consider:

1. EagleFan-- the scanned player with the most erratic behavior; claimed Marine role
2. hoops and Danny-- scanned players with normal behavior

NOTE: Only one wolf could come from the above group. We find one, the other two are cleared.

3. saldana, J23-- the uncleared players, both with possibly suspicious votes/moves/circumstances (sal ;) )
4. DV/jeff61-- Claimed the lovers role

Believe it or not, after all of yesterday's stuff with sal, I am actually leaning to believing him now as a villager. Again, it mostly comes down to vibe, but I hope this time sal won't get his back up about that. :D

If sal is innocent, I am thinking EF is the cunning, with all villagers on EF on Day One. That makes the Day One vote even more interesting (and the Day Two vote less interesting). It also makes Day Three's deadline switches seem interesting.

I believe we may only have two wolves left. If so, if we find one outside of jeff/DV, we would have to believe their reveal is true. FTR, in a meta-gamey way, I put a little more faith that The Jackal will include Silk Spectre & Night Owl characters in his game, as those are major characters. EF's role choice seems less consequential and not as major.

[Chief Rum]

Yeah I know. Heh. I mean it adds a layer of complexity for you guys. For me it was really convenient. I haven't gone out of my way to advertise this.

But yeah, that's why I wanted to leave plenty of room before deadline.

Can you point to anything you and DV did in thread that might give an indication of this earlier?

[jeff061]

I don't feel like doing that math. If am a wolf and am bluffing I am only buying a single night while selling two wolves out. Is that a good strategy after a wasted night attack against Rum?

[Chief Rum]

There is so much left to be determined. But if I had to give my best guess right now, I think EF is the cunning and J23 is the other wolf. I would bet that J23 is the wolf seer, which means EF will also be the brutal.

[jeff061]

Can you point to anything you and DV did in thread that might give an indication of this earlier?

I'll have to go back through. Only thing that jumps to mind is voting on someone else shortly after a vote was cast on him. I'll dig it up. I certainly never directly pointed a finger his way.

[saldana]

We now have four separate groups to consider:

1. EagleFan-- the scanned player with the most erratic behavior; claimed Marine role
2. hoops and Danny-- scanned players with normal behavior

NOTE: Only one wolf could come from the above group. We find one, the other two are cleared.

3. saldana, J23-- the uncleared players, both with possibly suspicious votes/moves/circumstances (sal ;) )
4. DV/jeff61-- Claimed the lovers role

Believe it or not, after all of yesterday's stuff with sal, I am actually leaning to believing him now as a villager. Again, it mostly comes down to vibe, but I hope this time sal won't get his back up about that. :D

If sal is innocent, I am thinking EF is the cunning, with all villagers on EF on Day One. That makes the Day One vote even more interesting (and the Day Two vote less interesting). It also makes Day Three's deadline switches seem interesting.

I believe we may only have two wolves left. If so, if we find one outside of jeff/DV, we would have to believe their reveal is true. FTR, in a meta-gamey way, I put a little more faith that The Jackal will include Silk Spectre & Night Owl characters in his game, as those are major characters. EF's role choice seems less consequential and not as major.


DAMNIT CHIEF!!! how dare you put me on your list again...oh...wait a sec...nevermind.:lol:

in all seriousness, i am virtually certain EF is the cunning, and i dont know what to make of the newly claimed lovers...again, the wolves know what is not in the game, so they can claim whatever they want with impunity.

vote EF

[hoopsguy]

J23, anything that you would like to add to the conversation today? You've been lurking in thread a bit today but withholding comments. Us villagers kind of like having some conversation along the way when trying to find wolves ...

[jeff061]

Post 283: Saldana votes Darth
Post 284: I vote J23

That was pretty much solely to avoid things running up on Darth.

But let's be honest here, I tend to believe tonight's lynching is going to go however PF wants it to :D.

[jeff061]

J23, anything that you would like to add to the conversation today? You've been lurking in thread a bit today but withholding comments. Us villagers kind of like having some conversation along the way when trying to find wolves ...


He's been doing this all game long, which gave me the seer/wolf feel with him.

[Chief Rum]

I don't feel like doing that math. If am a wolf and am bluffing I am only buying a single night while selling two wolves out. Is that a good strategy after a wasted night attack against Rum?

Well, we have multiple other wolf options, and the seer does not have anyone to protect him anymore. The only way to discover the truth is to lynch either you or DV.

If we stay away from you, we might go more than one night before coming back to you. You could very well bluffing to get a couple nights, which would win you the game. The bluff, of course, is that we will check right away (lynch DV), and discover he's not who you say he is.

[J23]

Well, wanted to wait to hear back from Darth. PM'd him earlier and wanted to make sure we are in agreement to go public.

But I haven't heard anything back, I want to leave a lot of time before the deadline and I don't want to be railroaded. I'm Laurie and Darth is my man. We are both villagers.

I'm not sure why you'd go public with that role, especially naming which is which lover. If this is legit, a single wolf nightkill takes out two villagers.

[hoopsguy]

Well, at this point I'll remove my vote from jeff. I expect that we'll get confirmation from DV when he arrives.

UNVOTE JEFF061

[jeff061]

I'm not sure why you'd go public with that role, especially naming which is which lover. If this is legit, a single wolf nightkill takes out two villagers.

I go public because we are saying of 4 villagers 2 are wolves. I can clear 2 of them.

2 are only killed at once in the absence of Manhattan.

[J23]

J23, anything that you would like to add to the conversation today? You've been lurking in thread a bit today but withholding comments. Us villagers kind of like having some conversation along the way when trying to find wolves ...

I have the site open in a browser at work, and pop in when I get a chance. It's not lurking or witholding comments if I'm not actually looking at the thread, is it? ;)

[J23]

Daniel Dreiberg (Nite Owl II) and Laurie Juspeczyk (Silk Spectre II) - Lovers. May communicate with each other freely through private messaging. If Laurie is killed, they both die. If Daniel is killed, Laurie will survive only if Dr. Manhattan is still alive. She will not be revealed in this case, nor will she then be subject to automatic death if Dr. Manhattan dies. If this series of events occurs, she will gain the ability to scan nightly for her father, Edward Blake.

That looks to me like if Laurie gets killed, they both die regardless of Manhattan.

[EagleFan]

So if jeff is telling the truch that leaves J23 and saldana as two wolves and they we worry about the cunning which is either hoops, Danny or myself.

Actually it would be either hoops or Danny at that point as I know my role. My guess would be hoops at this point as he is trying his hardest to make a case against me and deflect from himself. If you believe that I am the cunning that would mean that all of the wolves would have switched to DT on day three with no vote spread at all. That is a move that would make no sense at all.

[jeff061]

That looks to me like if Laurie gets killed, they both die regardless of Manhattan.

And now I feel like an idiot for reading that wrong. Hopefully not held against me. Sure it will be.

[J23]

At this point, I'd hazard the guess that there are 3 wolves left. A cunning from the circle of cleared folks, DV and Jeff. I'd be shocked if Ozymandius didn't make it into the game, so that means there's a cunning for sure. With those numbers, they're in a great position if a potential fake reveal like this buys them an extra day.

In thinking about it, I guess there could only be two, with Jeff being the cunning and hoping that the seer can clear him tonight while they take out Manhattan. It'd be a pretty risky move though, and I'm not sure a fake reveal makes sense in that situation.

Anyway, back to work for a bit.