Werewolf CXVIIIb XTreme - WOLVES WIN

[JAG]

So why do you think a wolf is necessarily on a Mau voter? If you think bhlloy is a villager, Zinto could make more sense.

[Danny]

Wolves night killed Chubby who limited the non Mau voters to three total people and only two on the second candidate. It seems more likely if there were 0 or even 1 wolf on Mau that they would kill one of his voters.

Of course, we're still going on the assumption Mau was good, but we can't be sure of that.

[Zinto]

I guess I will nail in Packers coffin for now. He has been really quiet and I would really like to hear from him before we lynch him but for now.

Unvote Bhlloy
Vote Packer

[Danny]

And Jag, I know my explanations are not the most sound. But this is only day two and having no role information to go on, about the best we have is weak assumptions

[PackerFanatic]

You guys don't want to vote for me...

[JAG]

Wolves night killed Chubby who limited the non Mau voters to three total people and only two on the second candidate. It seems more likely if there were 0 or even 1 wolf on Mau that they would kill one of his voters.

Of course, we're still going on the assumption Mau was good, but we can't be sure of that.

Unless there was another consideration, like role hunting. But I accept that that would be risky for them to do. If there were two wolves on Mau, what would be the combo though? PF came out voting bhlloy today, Natcizo opened D1 voting on PF. Doesn't seem likely to me.

[Danny]

Either reveal or don't, I hate quasi / cryptic reveals like "you guys don't want to vote for me"

[Danny]

Unless there was another consideration, like role hunting. But I accept that that would be risky for them to do. If there were two wolves on Mau, what would be the combo though? PF came out voting bhlloy today, Natcizo opened D1 voting on PF. Doesn't seem likely to me.

From your point of view this is true, but since I don't know your identity, it could very well be you with one of the three.

[Danny]

That said, I agree with your general premise that in a game where a wolf wouldn't even gain trust for voting a fellow wolf, that it would be a bad play and make the wolf combinations you stated unlikely.

[JAG]

And Jag, I know my explanations are not the most sound. But this is only day two and having no role information to go on, about the best we have is weak assumptions

I know the feeling.

[Danny]

Also, in Narc's defense, he really doesn't have a choice but to be an early voter. That said, he could be a wolf and I probably shouldn't give him a pass at all.

[PackerFanatic]

The sudden run on me is pretty suspicious. I wouldn't be surprised if both wolves were in that group, but definitely one of them.

[bhlloy]

It's very tough to ever get a read on Narc because his votes aren't reflective of the situation close to deadline.

PF - if you are going to reveal better do it soon. Waiting just means people aren't around to take their votes off you, and it also makes it look like you are trying to get your story straight.

[bhlloy]

I will agree that the run on you is quite interesting PF

[JAG]

He usually votes early because he's done hours of analysis before most of us wake up. I don't really read into him voting early as I might for others.

[spleen1015]

Work just called and I need to step away from the computer. I'm not sure I will be back before lynch or not.

[Zinto]

The run doesn't strike me as overly suspicious. More than likely Spleen voted for the person he hoped would gain the most traction and it happened. It will be interesting to see how the last hour plays out though.

[Danny]

I think I'll be leaving my vote

[PackerFanatic]

Sorry, had to put the kid to bed.

As much as I wanted to wait it out at least one more night, I would rather get the very little I have left out and get NK'd than die without anyone knowing. I am the priest. I scanned mauboy after his death and he was, in fact, a villager. With that knowledge, I think the rest of the village could have a decent shot with good voting.

[PackerFanatic]

"the very little info I have left out" is what that should have said :)

[PackerFanatic]

I think looking at JAG might be a good idea. He had a second vote on a presumed villager (Chubby) yesterday and then started the run on mau (a confirmed villager) right after that. Then he was all too eager to jump to the vote on me as well. Just a thought.

[PackerFanatic]

I want to at least make it close and save myself tonight.

UNVOTE BHLLOY
VOTE SPLEEN

[PackerFanatic]

Make it close and hope someone switches, that is.

[JAG]

If you're really the priest, you have a reasonable shot to survive if you survive the vote, depending on what the wolves thought they got N1.

[Danny]

Wonder if I should switch, I think it's likely that is a fake reveal, but I'll see if anyone else disputes it

[PackerFanatic]

Wonder if I should switch, I think it's likely that is a fake reveal, but I'll see if anyone else disputes it

Even in a game like this, I am not ballsy enough to pull something like that off. But believe what you will, I suppose :)

[PackerFanatic]

I hope someone switches and at least gives me a shot to prove it (as best I can, I suppose). If you lynch me, this game is likely over since the rest of the village would be firing blind (Unless the seer is still alive, but even then...)

[Zinto]

I am going to move off of Packer at this point since barring someone else counter-revealing I think it is for the best to not risk it. We will have to see what Narcizo and Spleen have to say when they get on. I am not really jumping to move to Spleen since if he has a role he can not come out and reveal at this point.

Unvote Packer

[JAG]

Unvote PackerFanatic
Vote spleen

I guess without a counter-reveal I may as well go with this and hope Chubby wasn't the real priest.

[Danny]

I guess I would swith to bh over spleen at this point

[PackerFanatic]

Me too Danny. After hearing more from people today, having Spleen leave his vote like he did really isn't a smart wolf play in this small of a game.

UNVOTE SPLEEN
VOTE BHLLOY

[Danny]

Not voting spleen

[Zinto]

I am more comfortable with Bhlloy then Spleen since he can reveal if need be.

Vote Bhlloy

[Danny]

unvote packer
Vote bhlloy

[JAG]

I don't see how bhlloy could be a wolf. I don't see a possible partner for him.

[JAG]

Maybe Narcizo, but then you'd have to believe they both voted Mau yesterday and quickly voted 1 and 2 on spleen.

[PackerFanatic]

Unless JAG switches, the lynch will be spleen either way.

[PackerFanatic]

Or you, JAG ;)

[Danny]

Hmmm

[bhlloy]

Vanilla villager guys. If I go down tonight to save the priest, so be it

[Danny]

In a game like this I could easily the wolves stacking their votes early

[spleen1015]

Well, this sucks.

I really don't like the Narc gets to put me on the radar and disappear for the rest of the day.

[JAG]

I'm feeling good about a spleen vote now.

[Zinto]

If Spleen doesn't have a role to reveal then I am going to assume that we are vanilla villager for both. I almost want to try and get another candidate going before the deadline but it is probably too late.

[PackerFanatic]

Well, this sucks.

I really don't like the Narc gets to put me on the radar and disappear for the rest of the day.

Not that he can help it - he is in a totally opposite time zone IIRC

[spleen1015]

I have no choice. The only way to save myself is to...

UNVOTE PACKERFANATIC
VOTE BHLLOY

[spleen1015]

Not that he can help it - he is in a totally opposite time zone IIRC

I didn't know that. :(

[Autumn]

spleen - narcizo (177), bhlloy (192), JAG (279)
bhlloy - packerfan (281), zinto (283), danny (284), spleen (296)

[Autumn]

Deadline

[Autumn]

The village votes, they think they have found their werewolf. Some call for Spleen1015's head, but it is Bhlloy that garners the most votes. He is hauled to the gallows and hung until dead.

Night falls.

[JAG]

Well, we almost assuredly blew it with the bhlloy lynch unless he and Narcizo are the wolves.

[Danny]

Well at least we can use info from VHS lynch now, oh wait

[Autumn]

The sun rises, but not for one man. As you come out into the village you find a door smashed and the bloody remains of JAG sprawled in his doorway.

Day begins.

[PackerFanatic]

bhlloy WAS a wolf. Which almost guarantees that Narc has to be his partner.

[PackerFanatic]

Zinto: had a key second vote on bhlloy yesterday, also jumped in on the run tonight quickly. Unlikely would hang out his buddy to dry.

Spleen: saved himself tonight with a vote to the wolf. Can't imagine we were wolf-wolf tonight, but it's possible.

Narc: voted me and then switched to known villager yesterday. Full head of steam on spleen all day today.

Danny: no-show yesterday, cast a key vote on the wolf today.

[PackerFanatic]

Narc seems the most likely at this point. Unless Danny or Zinto have been playing ballsy as hell :)

[Danny]

Wow good work packer, I guess we almost have to keep believing you and hope chubs wasn't te seer

[spleen1015]

Nice work guys.

[JAG]

Speculation thread open for those interested.

[Danny]

I'm interested

[JAG]

And not currently playing, forgot that caveat.

[Danny]

Lol

[Danny]

With the way the game it is, going forward I am going to assume Packer is the seer and Bh was a wolf. If it turns out that is wrong, then well played Packer, but we really have no choice but to go with this give the lack of info.

[Danny]

So the five players left are

Spleen
Narcizo
Zinto
Packerfanatic
Danny

I think Narcizo is Bh's most likely wolf partner, but I'll look closer at it before voting

[Danny]

Day 1
packerfanatic - spleen1015 (51)
bhlloy - mauboy1 (56), Zinto (78), Chubby (128)
Mauboy1 - JAG (86), PackerFanatic (88), Narcizo (89), bhlloy (129)

[Danny]

Oh and Danny with no vote

[Danny]

Day 2

spleen - narcizo (177), bhlloy (192), JAG (279)
bhlloy - packerfan (281), zinto (283), danny (284), spleen (296)

[Danny]

Both days Narc and bhlloy stacked their votes on the same candidate, so that's very interesting. As Packer said, Zinto with key bh votes both days, so I will not be voting him. Bh with a key second vote on Spleen likely rules him out. I had a key vote on bh as well, so I am not a great candidate either.

I think it's pretty clear what the best way to go is.

Vote Narcizo

I seriously doubt I'll be needing to change this

[Zinto]

I can't buy this outcome to be honest. Why would the wolves leave Packer alive if he was going to find a wolf? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to be honest.

Why would the wolves kill Jag if he was certain that Narcizo and Bhlloy where not wolves if that is the most likely scenario. This is not adding up at all in my mind and I am beginning to believe that Packer is a wolf. I want to hear what Narcizo has to say about everything but right now I just can not shake this feeling that this is going all wrong.

[Zinto]

I also can't see a scenario where Bhlloy is a wolf and puts up the kind of fight he did. He didn't do anything to try and stop himself from getting lynched which should have caused us to try and move our votes off him.

[Narcizo]

Interesting turn of events. I dunno what to make of it really. Packer looked the most suspicious but I know he's a villager so I don't know what to think, one possibility is that we're close to winning the game, the other is that we're very close to losing it, and I can't for the life of me work out which it is.

Yeah, I'm the seer. I realise that that is going to be met with suspicion but I can't help that.

Day One - JAG. I pretended that I wasn't following JAG on day one but as he was a villager I felt it was in my interest to vote him.

Day Two - Packer. I was getting a gut read that Packer was a wolf when I went to bed so I put in an order on him with a conditional on mau. Once he came up villager I guess I should just have upped and revealed. I tried to deflect attention from the mau voters but I guess I should have realised that one of them was a wolf and voted bhlloy - but I actually thought there was more chance that spleen was a wolf.

Day Three - I had a conditional order spleen unless lynched then Danny, as it would be tough to get a read on him. Spleen came up villager.

Which means that either a wolf lynched a wolf yesterday - or Packer was lying to save himself and is the sorceror. Case a is pretty bizarre, case b basically means the game is lost, unless Packer is right without knowing it.

[Narcizo]

When I say "villager" I mean non-wolf, obviously. Unfortunately I don't get a full scan result.

[Narcizo]

Assuming Packer is a sorceror and mau and bhlloy were villagers then all the sorceror has to do is vote for himself and the game is over. So there's no point chasing that one any further.

Packer is on the up and up. He's a villager and bhlloy is a wolf. Either zinto or danny must be a wolf and they voted for a team-member. Spleen might be the sorceror, which would explain him keeping his vote out of the way yesterday.

Packer is a sorceror but either mau or bhlloy was a wolf. If bhlloy was a wolf then the situation is pretty much the same as above. If mau was a wolf then it looks like we want to look at people who didn't vote mau, which leads us to zinto or Danny.

Dunno, the more I think about it the more I think the village has lost. Doesn't help that I'm trying to do a hundred things at work at the same time.

[Narcizo]

I suspect I'm wasting my time here but if there's any chance that we aren't at the stage of 2 wolves and a sorceror then I might as well try covering the angles.

I get the definite feeling that bhlloy was a villager. He put up very little in the way of a fight. Mau I'm not so sure about, he tried the fake reveal last time and it bit his butt so maybe he thought gutting it out as a vanilla would make people move at the last moment. If he was a wolf then I presume chubby was the real priest. So Packer must be a sorceror. If he is a sorceror then we don't want to vote for him. That leaves Danny and zinto. I've been getting a pretty villagey feel from zinto so that pretty much leaves me going this way for the time being.

Vote Danny

I'm not dead cert on this because everything is just too complicated at the moment. I'd like input here really.

[Narcizo]

I haven't left much in the way of overt pointers to me being a seer. I've dropped a few "see"s in to sentences on the first day but really I get very leery about doing that, as I presume that wolves are going to be looking out for exactly that sort of thing and pick up on it.

I thought a long time about coming out with the information I had on day two, and probably should have. I was going to come out with it but wanted to see the reactions first. Eventually I decided that either bhlloy and/or spleen must be a wolf and it was them in the running at the time so me giving up that information would serve no purpose. I literally sat in front of the computer for half an hour deciding what to do but I just wanted another shot at getting a wolf.

[spleen1015]

3 people have presented their thoughts already today and all 3 of them present good cases that 3 different people are wolves.

Narc is the only person to not vote for bhlloy which screams wolf to me if bhlloy was in fact a wolf. We assume this based on what PackerFanatic is telling us.

PackerFanatic reveals as the Priest and there is a run on bhlloy. The only person capable of revealing anything is PackerFanatic and he reveals bhlloy as a wolf. You get everyone to move to a person who only you can give any information about. Fishy.

Narc reveals as seer today and says JAG, PackerFanatic and I are villagers. I know I am and we know JAG is since he was NKed. Should we believe that PF is?

I am still suspicious of Narc from yesterday. I don't know about PackerFanatic. I hope he's being truthful.

I don't have anything on Danny and Zinto which scares me. If I was the Seer, I think I would have scanned Danny Night 1 to see what he was since he was MIA on Day 1.

Should be an interesting day.

[Danny]

Wow, you guys do realize Narc just posted that he has made 3 SCANS. THIS IS ONLY DAY 3, and that's IMPOSSIBLE. Narc is a wolf

[Danny]

Wait, actually the seer gets the night 0 scan

[Danny]

Actually looking back, Packer claimed to have only made one scan at the time of his reveal when actually he would have had two scans. So Narc's reveal is actually more plausible.

[Danny]

I wish i had the rules more closely and knew that when he revealed. So based on Narc's scan however, Packer would be the sorcerer. But if he was, he could simply reveal as that and the wolves could win a majority vote.

[Danny]

Unvote Narcizo

[Danny]

Any chance Narc and Packer are out two wolves though and they simply know Chubs was the wolf?

[Danny]

our*

[Danny]

Packer fake revealing if he was the sorcerer is a very bad move in that role. If I was the sorc, I would take my lynch because if I fake revealed, I might get a wolf lynched instead.

[Danny]

Based on Packer making the same mistake I did regarding the number of scans, he clearly is not the seer. So the question is whether Narc and Packer are both wolves, or they are both not wolves. It can't be a one wolf, one villager situation.

[Danny]

Considering I really don't see ZInto and Spleen as the two wolves, I still think Narc and Packer are wolves

[Danny]

Vote Packerfanatic

If he is the sorcerer and two wolves are left, we lost anyway. If he is the sorcerer and only one wolf left, I think it's a good call to lynch him and take our shot tomorrow. If he comes up wolf, Narc is our other wolf and we win.

[Danny]

Ugg except we won't know what packer comes up lol

[Danny]

I think Lathum had the right idea about this game :)

[Autumn]

Way to catch up on the post count, Danny!

[Danny]

They made it easy for me ;)

[Danny]

Also, further on Zinto's thoughts, if I was a wolf, wouldn't I take a shot at packer thinking he was the seer and not Jag.

In general pulling off a claimed seer near deadline is the right move, but I wish I had stuck with my gut and kept it on Packer. I don't see me changing this vote today. And I'll be following it up with Narc tomorrow.

[spleen1015]

My gut tells me that Packer faked revealed as well to get the heat off of him and get a villager killed. I had a feeling the the first reveal was going to receive lots of favor. That's why I think Packer is a wolf fake revealing in the hopes that the real Priest was dead. Since no one has contested that....

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[PackerFanatic]

Based on Packer making the same mistake I did regarding the number of scans, he clearly is not the seer. So the question is whether Narc and Packer are both wolves, or they are both not wolves. It can't be a one wolf, one villager situation.

Huh? The seer got a night 0 scan, giving to them by Autumn. The priest (me) did NOT get a night 0 scan, since I can only scan dead people. So I got my first scan on night 1, and I scanned the only dead person at the time (mauboy). Last night (night 2), I could have scanned Chubby (the night 1 NK) or bhlloy (the day 2 lynch) and I went with bhlloy.

[PackerFanatic]

I can't buy this outcome to be honest. Why would the wolves leave Packer alive if he was going to find a wolf? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to be honest.

Why would the wolves kill Jag if he was certain that Narcizo and Bhlloy where not wolves if that is the most likely scenario. This is not adding up at all in my mind and I am beginning to believe that Packer is a wolf. I want to hear what Narcizo has to say about everything but right now I just can not shake this feeling that this is going all wrong.

The only reason I can think I was left alive was because the remaining wolf wasn't around to change the order. I would have to assume that I would have been offed had that wolf been around.

You guys are way off base voting me.

[PackerFanatic]

My gut tells me that Packer faked revealed as well to get the heat off of him and get a villager killed. I had a feeling the the first reveal was going to receive lots of favor. That's why I think Packer is a wolf fake revealing in the hopes that the real Priest was dead. Since no one has contested that....

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

I would have absolutely no way of knowing if the real priest was dead though. With only 2 people dead at the time, the odds are not in my favor to fake that reveal. And we know the priest has to be in this game, otherwise the village has virtually no chance to win.

[Danny]

The only reason I can think I was left alive was because the remaining wolf wasn't around to change the order. I would have to assume that I would have been offed had that wolf been around.

You guys are way off base voting me.

The remaining wolf? Bh was a wolf according to you and around. He could have changed the order before he died.

[PackerFanatic]

If you guys lynch me, unless we get lucky and still have a hunter out there, this game is likely over tonight - and not in our favor.

[PackerFanatic]

The remaining wolf? Bh was a wolf according to you and around. He could have changed the order before he died.

Ah yeah - I was looking at my vote list and didn't see him toward the end, but I do see his post from right before deadline. Then I don't know why I wouldn't have been offed. Obviously they had a good reason, because now you're all coming after me anyway :)

[Danny]

So Packer, no response to the fact that you had the seer rules wrong and should have had two scans to reveal yesterday?

[PackerFanatic]

So Packer, no response to the fact that you had the seer rules wrong and should have had two scans to reveal yesterday?

I did respond to that, and I DID reveal two scans.

[PackerFanatic]

Sorry, had to put the kid to bed.

As much as I wanted to wait it out at least one more night, I would rather get the very little I have left out and get NK'd than die without anyone knowing. I am the priest. I scanned mauboy after his death and he was, in fact, a villager. With that knowledge, I think the rest of the village could have a decent shot with good voting.

Here is my reveal.

Scanned mauboy night 1 - villager.
Scanned bhlloy night 2 - wolf.

[Danny]

Sorry, had to put the kid to bed.

As much as I wanted to wait it out at least one more night, I would rather get the very little I have left out and get NK'd than die without anyone knowing. I am the priest. I scanned mauboy after his death and he was, in fact, a villager. With that knowledge, I think the rest of the village could have a decent shot with good voting.

At this point, you should have had two scans, one random one and your Mauboy one. It's clear you are not the seer

[Danny]

Here is my reveal.

Scanned mauboy night 1 - villager.
Scanned bhlloy night 2 - wolf.

See, that's wrong. Reread the seer role, you were supposed to get a random night 0 scan.

[spleen1015]

Danny, he claimed to be the Priest.

Narc has claimed to be the Seer.

:D

[PackerFanatic]

I have never said I was the seer. The seer and the priest are two totally different roles. The seer is the one that got the random scan. The priest can only scan dead people.

[PackerFanatic]

Good Roles:

Seer - Each night receives a vision of a target player as 'wolf' or 'not wolf.' The seer receives a vision on Night 0 of one randomly chosen player that is 'not wolf.' Thereafter, the seer chooses which player to view.

Priest - Each night receives a vision of a target deceased player. The vision tells the priest that deceased player's exact role. The priest must choose one deceased player to view.



Emphasis mine.

[Danny]

Uh, I think you guys should stop reading my post as I obviously don't know the rules. I thought they were the same role lol

[PackerFanatic]

The seer would have 3 scans, which is what Narc is claiming. The priest would only have 2, which is what I have had.

[Danny]

Unvote Packerfanatic

[Danny]

Still, with no bodyguard even in the game, you'd have to think the wolves would have killed Packer. I'm at a loss of where to go now.

[PackerFanatic]

I don't buy his reveal at all and he seems the most likely candidate to be the last wolf.

VOTE NARCIZO

[spleen1015]

Still, with no bodyguard even in the game, you'd have to think the wolves would have killed Packer. I'm at a loss of where to go now.

The only way Packer stays alive is because he's a wolf?

I dunno either.

[PackerFanatic]

Again, I appreciate the fact you guys think I am ballsy enough to pull off a reveal like that, but I'm not :)

[Autumn]

Does someone have the vote count. All Danny's unvotes don't look appealing to track ;-)

[spleen1015]

I think this is right.

318 - 23:23 - Danny votes Narcizo(1)
324 - 04:26 - Narcizo votes Danny (1)
331 - 08:20 - Danny unvotes Narcizo(0)
337 - 08:37 - Danny votes PackerFanatic(1)
343 - 08:52 - spleen1015 votes PackerFanatic(2)
360 - 09:05 - Danny unvotes PackerFanatic(1)
362 - 09:09 - PackerFanatic votes Narcizo(1)

1 - Danny - Narcizo(331)
1 - PackerFanatic - spleen1015(343)
1 - Narcizo - PackerFanatic(362)

[Autumn]

Thanks, Spleen. If anybody disagrees with his tally let me know.

[PackerFanatic]

Looks good to me

[PackerFanatic]

Zinto, Danny - any ideas? I think we are damn close but we have to make sure we aren't near-sighted. I don't really want to vote for Danny as I really feel Narc is the guy, but if I need to protect myself, I will.

[Zinto]

This game makes my head hurt :(

[Danny]

I cant imagine I go anywhere except Narc or Packer

[Danny]

Everyone has checked in, so at this point, I have to believe that either one wolf or the sorcerer is dead.

[Zinto]

Right now we have Packer and Narcizo revealed as the priest and if we are to believe them then either Danny, or I would have to be the final wolf.

I just can not buy Narcizo as a wolf who clears everyone but Danny and I. He could have taken the easy way out as a wolf and said he scanned Chubby, Jag and Mau.

[PackerFanatic]

Technically, Narc revealed as the seer, not as the priest.

[Zinto]

Which means there is no way Packer is a wolf since Narcizo cleared him. The only thing that could be happening is that they are both wolves and they hit the jackpot by killing the sorcerer and the seer and I am not sure how likely that is.

[Danny]

Is Bhlloy and Spleen possible?

[Zinto]

Technically, Narc revealed as the seer, not as the priest.


That is what I meant sorry for anyone who reads my post and gets confused.

[Danny]

Which means there is no way Packer is a wolf since Narcizo cleared him. The only thing that could be happening is that they are both wolves and they hit the jackpot by killing the sorcerer and the seer and I am not sure how likely that is.

Honestly, if that happened, there was almost no way we would win anyway.

[Danny]

Probably not as BH piled on Spleen early yesterday. Really, the only possible wolf partner for Bh I can see is Narc.

[PackerFanatic]

And there would be no way for the wolves to know if they did that or not...so it would be damn ballsy of us to both come out with 2 different roles (the two most powerful at that)

[PackerFanatic]

Same here Danny. Which is what I had said last night :) And after seeing his reveal, I believe it even more.

[Danny]

To be fair though, I think it was pretty obvious Spleen did not have a role and same for me. So it wasnt that risky.

[PackerFanatic]

If you want to see the village win, i'm not the person to vote for.

Quoting an earlier post by Chubby on day 1 - I know a lot of people say this in games, but I have a hunch that Chubby was the seer.

[Zinto]

I don't understand why the wolf team would kill Jag if Narcizo is a wolf since Jag trusted Narcizo and believed he was a villager.

[Danny]

And I hate those kind of reveals. It signals the wolves to kill you and yet leaves the village wondering.

[PackerFanatic]

And I hate those kind of reveals. It signals the wolves to kill you and yet leaves the village wondering.

Agreed - especially in a game like this where we have no clue when you do actually get killed, heh.

[Danny]

I don't understand why the wolf team would kill Jag if Narcizo is a wolf since Jag trusted Narcizo and believed he was a villager.

If the wolves were bh and Narc, narc wasn't around to change the order and it didn't seem like bh was paying that close attention. I could definitely see a Jag kill if deciding not to go for Packer, but you'd still think they would go for Packer, especially knowing bh would be dead scanned as a wolf.

[PackerFanatic]

If the wolves were bh and Narc, narc wasn't around to change the order and it didn't seem like bh was paying that close attention. I could definitely see a Jag kill if deciding not to go for Packer, but you'd still think they would go for Packer, especially knowing bh would be dead scanned as a wolf.

That is my thinking too (about Narc not being around). I can't see any other explanation as to why I am still alive.

[Danny]

Autumn, a little help? :)

[Danny]

I still think Narc or Packer is the only way to go. Chubby had to have been the priest or the seer you would think.

[Zinto]

I do not understand that at all. Bhlloy did not put up a fight to not get lynched. All it has done is put doubt in my mind so if he was a wolf he did a good job.

[Zinto]

At this point I am going to reveal as the hunter. I am hoping that we only have one wolf yet but if we have two there is no way we are going down with me and one other wolf more then likely.

[Danny]

I do not understand that at all. Bhlloy did not put up a fight to not get lynched. All it has done is put doubt in my mind so if he was a wolf he did a good job.

Keep in mind when he posted that, he wasn't going to get lynched, he only got lynched once Spleen showed back up after he said he probably wasn't going to be able to.

I could see a wolf doing that, but then you'd think they would have taken out the priest so it still appeared he was a villager.

[Danny]

That's a good move I think Zinto and I believe you

[Zinto]

So my only thought are:

1. Super conspiracy theory both Packer and Narcizo are wolves and got super lucky.

2. Danny is the last wolf since no one countered revealed either of the reveals.

3. Narcizo is a wolf who is lying about being the seer.

[Danny]

I think one is the most unlikely. Chubby almost certainly had either the seer or priest role based on his post.

[Danny]

2. The best argument I could give is that if I was a wolf, I would have killed Packer last night, no question

[Zinto]

I think I am going to go Narc today and if we are wrong then we bite the bullet and move onto Danny or Spleen. I hope Packer is telling the truth since I do not want to trust him but at this point I can't envision him lying.

Vote Narcizo

[Danny]

Also, I suppose Spleen and I could be wolves as I stayed off of him and tried to get others lynched over him

[Danny]

I'm definitely stacking my vote with Zinto since there is little room for error

[PackerFanatic]

Keep in mind when he posted that, he wasn't going to get lynched, he only got lynched once Spleen showed back up after he said he probably wasn't going to be able to.

I could see a wolf doing that, but then you'd think they would have taken out the priest so it still appeared he was a villager.

This is true - Spleen was in the lead when bhlloy made his last post, and Spleen's vote was 2 minutes prior to deadline. Spleen had said he may not be back before deadline, so bhlloy likely thought he was safe and left JAG as the kill. Then he got lynched and Narc wasn't around to change it (since obviously I would have found out bhlloy was indeed a wolf).

I believe your reveal as well, Zinto, and feel even better about voting Narc today.

[Autumn]

Autumn, a little help? :)

The wolves are the bad guys.

[PackerFanatic]

I think the only other option for the remaining wolf is Danny, and that would be a stretch to me. I think we got this locked down with Narc.

[Zinto]

If there is only one wolf right now(I have my fingers crossed) and Narcizo is not the wolf then Danny is the clear choice for the lynch tomorrow. I am going to assume that I am not going to make it through the night since if I do the village is going to win. So Packer and Spleen remember this post.

[PackerFanatic]

Glad we are on the same page, Zinto :-D

[Zinto]

In this scenario where Bhlloy and Narcizo where wolves I am wondering if Jag was the sorcerer since he was really against any lynch of Bhlloy or Narcizo.

[PackerFanatic]

Very true, Zinto - he steered very clear of bhlloy all day yesterday.

[Danny]

But did the sorcerer know the wolves identities?

[Danny]

it looks like not, but the sorcerer could have scanned chubby and found out he was the seer

[Zinto]

Not sure. I am not sure how much help the sorcerer would be if they didn't but then again I did not read the rules very carefully :)

[Zinto]

Well this is where I stand for now and I have over thought everything so I am going to step away for a while and try not to think about anything that is going on in this game.

[PackerFanatic]

Duh - sorcerer doesn't know. He just looks for the seer (which, IMO, seems kind of odd to have a non-killing role being able to search for them)

[spleen1015]

Based on the input offered by Zinto, I think Narcizo is the right choice. I don't think I would have revealed though.

If both wolves are still out there, then the games ends with the lynch if the lynch is a villager. If the lynch doesn't end the game, then there is only 1 wolf left.

Going into Night, the wolves knowing who you are Zinto guarantees you're the NK, otherwise they can't win tomorrow because you won't get lynched. I think I would have rather left them guessing with the NK in the hopes that you weren't the target.

As long as we get it right today though, I don't think have anything to worry about.

[Narcizo]

OK I think we have a chance now. There's only a wolf left then, or two wolves and Packer is on the level. I still lean towards Danny being the wolf but honestly I don't know. I just can't bring myself to believe that Packer is a villager.

If I'm a wolf, why on earth would I reveal as the seer and not, you know, the priest and take my luck with Packer today and hope the sorceror is around? Not only that but I clear the most likely contender in a me vs someone show down? Way to give myself wriggle room. And how do I know the seer isn't dead?

I know that if you kill me we're almost certain that we lose. The only way events make sense to me is if Packer is the sorceror. If you guys are looking at me and Packer then that's fair enough but you need to take out Packer first or he and the wolf win the game.

My view of things. Mau is a wolf. Packer votes for him because he doesn't know that. Yesterday it looks like Packer is going down so he fake reveals as the priest, hoping that Chubby or I or someone else who wasn't going to be around was the priest. Bhlloy is lynched but the wolf realises that Packer must have been lying or he would have revealed mau as a wolf.

Why is Packer still alive? Why let the person who could reveal Bhlloy as the wolf live? I can see you're thinking that Narc isn't around so he couldn't get the order in. Every GM I've played with has let any wolf place a new kill order. So not only does Bhlloy meekly go to his death as a wolf, he decides not to kill the person who's going to reveal him as a wolf.

If there's two wolves left then I guess you guys have won, if Packer is a villager. I know if I get lynched I die.

Unvote Danny
Vote Packer

I'm back in a while to answer your questions.

[PackerFanatic]

Why is Packer still alive? Why let the person who could reveal Bhlloy as the wolf live? I can see you're thinking that Narc isn't around so he couldn't get the order in. Every GM I've played with has let any wolf place a new kill order. So not only does Bhlloy meekly go to his death as a wolf, he decides not to kill the person who's going to reveal him as a wolf.


Of course he could have switched the vote - but I don't think he thought he was actually going to die. By the time he realized it (if he was even around in the two minutes prior to deadline that Spleen changed), he was already dead and it was too late.

I still cannot figure out why he wouldn't have switched earlier - but I guess he didn't figure things would swing back to him like they did.

[Danny]

Narcizo, your post is very well thought out and reasoned and it's difficult for me to disagree with you.

My gut is telling me to vote Packer and your post is probably the most reasoned out thought process I've seen. It also likely means Spleen would have to be the last wolf.

[Danny]

Or from your perspective, me or Spleen.

[Danny]

Vote Packerfanatic

I know I said I would stack my vote with Zinto and I probably still will at the end of the day, but I'm now leaning toward Narc telling the truth.

I just still can't fathom why bh would not have put a kill order in for Packer if he was a wolf.

My guess now is the wolves were Spleen and Mau with Packer as the sorcerer.

[Autumn]

packerfanatic - spleen1015 (343), narcizo (414), Danny (418)
narcizo - packerfanatic (362), zinto (398)

[Danny]

Hmm, from my point of view, maybe I should vote Spleen. If I am going along with Narc's thought process either Spleen or I would have to be the wolf

[Zinto]

The only problem with what Narcizo has said is earlier he said he scanned Packer good and I just don't see a scenario where there is a cunning wolf in this game.

[Danny]

Unvote Packer
Vote Spleen

[Danny]

The only problem with what Narcizo has said is earlier he said he scanned Packer good and I just don't see a scenario where there is a cunning wolf in this game.

Packer could be the sorcerer

[Danny]

I guarantee there is no cunning wolf, Autumn is not one to leave that out of the rules.

[Danny]

And if Narc was going to fake reveal, why would he not say he found a wolf? It's not like he could be proved wrong.

[Zinto]

And this is where it gets difficult if we are to believe Narcizo then either Danny or I am the last wolf since he cleared Spleen and Packer. So if you believe Narcizo then your best bet would to be to vote for me Danny.

[Danny]

Oh yeah thats right, well crap

[Danny]

I forgot he cleared Spleen

[Danny]

Unvote Spleen

[Danny]

I'm back to choosing Narc or Packer

[Zinto]

So in this situation Narcizo's vote makes no sense right now. He would have to stay on you or claim that I was lying and vote for me. There is no way that Packer or Spleen are wolves if he is the seer.

[PackerFanatic]

It was never stated that the sorcerer would come up as good, so if Narc actually is telling the truth, then I am good (granted I don't believe him, but I do know that I am good)

[Danny]

From Narc's perspective why would he not continue voting for me or Zinto? Lynching me and then ZInto would guarantee him a win.

[Danny]

Vote Narcizo

[Danny]

Alright, I think if there are two wolves left, we are screwed either way, so let's just say there is one wolf left.

I think we have a good shot if that is the case

[Danny]

I'm not changing my vote because if Narc was telling the truth, that would mean Zinto or I would have to be the last wolf 100%, and I just don't see Zinto being a wolf.

[Danny]

Especially since he revealed Hunter. It's possible Jag was the hunter, but that would be risky for Zinto there with him having no suspicion on him at all and Spleen or I capable of being the hunter.

[Danny]

And you know what, Narc is too good of a player to vote for Packer since he could guarentee the village a win by lynching me and then Zinto if necessary.

[spleen1015]

Post 321 dooms you Narc.

You said in that post that you scanned PackerFanatic and he came back villager. Then you end up voting for him? I think you forgot all of the lies you were spinning and messed up.

UNVOTE PACKERFANATIC
VOTE NARCIZO

[Danny]

btw if Narc is telling the truth, it would have to be 100% Mau was a wolf and would he have voted his fellow wolf like that day 1? In this game? I doubt it.

[spleen1015]

I think this is right after all of Danny's unvoting and voting. :D

318 - 23:23 - Danny votes Narcizo(1)
324 - 04:26 - Narcizo votes Danny (1)
331 - 08:20 - Danny unvotes Narcizo(0)
337 - 08:37 - Danny votes PackerFanatic(1)
343 - 08:52 - spleen1015 votes PackerFanatic(2)
360 - 09:05 - Danny unvotes PackerFanatic(1)
362 - 09:09 - PackerFanatic votes Narcizo(1)
398 - 12:36 - Zinto votes Narcizo(2)
414 - 13:41 - Narcizo unvotes Danny(0), votes PackerFanatic(2)
418 - 14:12 - Danny votes PackerFanatic(3)
422 - 14:17 - Danny unvotes PackerFanatic(2), votes spleen1015(1)
429 - 14:20 - Danny unvotes spleen1015(0)
434 - 14:22 - Danny votes Narcizo(3)
439 - 14:30 - spleen1015 unvotes PackerFanatic(1), votes Narcizo(4)

1 - PackerFanatic - Narcizo(414)
4 - Narcizo - PackerFanatic(362), Zinto(398), Danny(434), spleen1015(4)

[spleen1015]

A correction

318 - 23:23 - Danny votes Narcizo(1)
324 - 04:26 - Narcizo votes Danny (1)
331 - 08:20 - Danny unvotes Narcizo(0)
337 - 08:37 - Danny votes PackerFanatic(1)
343 - 08:52 - spleen1015 votes PackerFanatic(2)
360 - 09:05 - Danny unvotes PackerFanatic(1)
362 - 09:09 - PackerFanatic votes Narcizo(1)
398 - 12:36 - Zinto votes Narcizo(2)
414 - 13:41 - Narcizo unvotes Danny(0), votes PackerFanatic(2)
418 - 14:12 - Danny votes PackerFanatic(3)
422 - 14:17 - Danny unvotes PackerFanatic(2), votes spleen1015(1)
429 - 14:20 - Danny unvotes spleen1015(0)
434 - 14:22 - Danny votes Narcizo(3)
439 - 14:30 - spleen1015 unvotes PackerFanatic(1), votes Narcizo(4)

1 - PackerFanatic - Narcizo(414)
4 - Narcizo - PackerFanatic(362), Zinto(398), Danny(434), spleen1015(439)

[Danny]

I think this is right after all of Danny's unvoting and voting. :D


As long as where my vote ends up is ok :D.

[PackerFanatic]

btw if Narc is telling the truth, it would have to be 100% Mau was a wolf and would he have voted his fellow wolf like that day 1? In this game? I doubt it.

And mau is 100% NOT a wolf. And like Spleen just pointed out - Narc voted for me after having supposedly cleared me. Obviously fishy.

[Narcizo]

So in this situation Narcizo's vote makes no sense right now. He would have to stay on you or claim that I was lying and vote for me. There is no way that Packer or Spleen are wolves if he is the seer.

I don't know if Danny or you are the wolf - I'm pretty certain that Danny is but I don't know 100% I haven't really registered that you revealed as the hunter and what it meant. Everyone was talking me vs Packer. I know I'm a villager and if you lynch me we are very likely to lose. I'm acting in self-defence.

[Danny]

From my perspective, there are only three possible wolf combinations,

Narc and Bhlloy, Zinto and Mauboy or Narcizo and Packer.

[Zinto]

I am pretty sure this is where my vote is staying and with Narcizo leaving soon there will be little to no discussion going on until the deadline I think it is best if we vote for nightfall.

Vote Nightfall

[Danny]

The first one seems the plausible with the third the most unlikely.

[PackerFanatic]

Was just about to do the same, Zinto.

VOTE NIGHTFALL

[Danny]

I'll take my chances

Vote Nightfall

[Danny]

Spleen, you feel ok about voting Nightfall? I know for sure you are a villager as you are not in any of the 3 possible wolf combinations.

[Zinto]

I don't know if Danny or you are the wolf - I'm pretty certain that Danny is but I don't know 100% I haven't really registered that you revealed as the hunter and what it meant. Everyone was talking me vs Packer. I know I'm a villager and if you lynch me we are very likely to lose. I'm acting in self-defence.


The only problem I have with this is if you are saying that there is a really good chance the village will loose if you get lynched then the same could be said about any villager. You cleared Packer so from a village perspective there is no reason to vote him. Your best bet would to make the best case for Danny or I and hope the correct person was chosen tomorrow if you couldn't convince us of switching today.

[spleen1015]

vote nightfall

[Danny]

Yeah and to me, it sounded like he was trying to keep my open as the option tomorrow after lynching Packer and the game not being over.

[Narcizo]

Seer - Each night receives a vision of a target player as 'wolf' or 'not wolf.' The seer receives a vision on Night 0 of one randomly chosen player that is 'not wolf.' Thereafter, the seer chooses which player to view.


Villager = not wolf. Packer came back as not a wolf.

If we lose because I wrote "villager" instead of "not a wolf" then I'm sorry.

[Danny]

Villager = not wolf. Packer came back as not a wolf.

If we lose because I wrote "villager" instead of "not a wolf" then I'm sorry.

Doesn't matter, if you were really the seer, you would absolutely be pushing for me or Zinto. Because even if you lynched wrong today, you could lynch the other tomorrow and still win.

[Zinto]

I guess there is a chance that Packer is the sorcerer and he has really mucked up the situation. If that is the case then tomorrow we loose no matter what since he will assuredly vote with the wolf.

[Zinto]

This is something I did not think about and it is beginning to make me second guess myself a little so for now.

Unvote Nightfall

[Danny]

I guess there is a chance that Packer is the sorcerer and he has really mucked up the situation. If that is the case then tomorrow we loose no matter what since he will assuredly vote with the wolf.

Yeah, but a fake reveal as the sorc is a bad play as it would mean a wolf might be lynched instead. IMO, one of the best plays a sorcerer can make in this small a game is to get themselves lynched day 2 or 3

[Narcizo]

Doesn't matter, if you were really the seer, you would absolutely be pushing for me or Zinto. Because even if you lynched wrong today, you could lynch the other tomorrow and still win.

I'm reacting to how I see it. I die we almost certainly lose. I push to lynch you and you vote me? I'm dead. You seem very certain about this Danny.

[Zinto]

I would prefer if you vote for nightfall before you go Narcizo just in case. Honestly I could see a situation where Packer is the sorcerer but I am not sure why he would reveal as the priest not the seer unless he scanned Narcizo and knew that he was the seer.

[PackerFanatic]

I'm reacting to how I see it. I die we almost certainly lose. I push to lynch you and you vote me? I'm dead. You seem very certain about this Danny.

By we, you mean you and bhlloy, the wolves, yes? :)

[Narcizo]

The first thing I did this morning was check with Autumn. Sorceror reads as not wolf.

[Danny]

I'm reacting to how I see it. I die we almost certainly lose. I push to lynch you and you vote me? I'm dead. You seem very certain about this Danny.

From your perspective, I just don't see why you would not push to vote me. From an outside perspective, I would say Zinto is an unlikely wolf and would be voting me.

[Danny]

If Narc is telling the truth, the only possible wolves are Zinto/Mau and Danny/Mau with Packer as the sorcerer and Chubby as the Priest and Jag as the hunter.

[Narcizo]

I would prefer if you vote for nightfall before you go Narcizo just in case. Honestly I could see a situation where Packer is the sorcerer but I am not sure why he would reveal as the priest not the seer unless he scanned Narcizo and knew that he was the seer.

I'll vote nightfall now. I trust you 99% Zinto but not 100%. I trust myself 100%. I need to save myself from a lynch so the wolves night kill me or, more likely, kill you.

You were onto Packer smelling fishy this morning. Do you really think under those circumstances I go the route I've taken rather than going directly after Packer?

[Danny]

Looking at it from my perspective though Narc, I also trust Zinto a lot, and I KNOW I am not the wolf, so it's tough for me to go with you as that would mean it would have be Zinto

[Autumn]

packerfanatic - narcizo (414)
narcizo - packerfanatic (362), zinto (398), danny (433), spleen1015 (439)

Nightfall - PackerFanatic, Danny, spleen1015

[Zinto]

The only people who could be wolves in a winnable situation would be Narcizo or Danny. If Packer is the sorcerer and we have not lynched a wolf the game is already lost. So for now I am going to revote nightfall and hope Narcizo is a wolf.

Vote Nightfall

[PackerFanatic]

If Narc is not a wolf, then either Zinto or Danny has really played well as one :)

[Danny]

And you played well as the sorcerer, hopefully this ends the game with a village win

[Zinto]

[quote=Narcizo;2486464

You were onto Packer smelling fishy this morning. Do you really think under those circumstances I go the route I've taken rather than going directly after Packer?[/quote]


That has caused me grief. It would be much easier as a wolf to call out someone who already had doubt on them. SO while I am not sure about what is about to happen if Packer is not the sorcerer and there is one wolf then we still have a good chance to win tomorrow.

[Danny]

If Zinto ends up being the wolf, I will congratulate him on a fantastic game

[Zinto]

Before you go Narcizo I would love for you to do some analysis for if the game goes on for another day.

[Zinto]

If Zinto ends up being the wolf, I will congratulate him on a fantastic game


Same to you Danny. Hopefully it does not come down to last day shoot out between you and I.

[Danny]

Not really analysis to go. If we lynch Narc and the game is not over, it's either you or me tomorrow.

[Narcizo]

You're all set on nightfall?

[Danny]

Yes

[spleen1015]

I am.

[Zinto]

Yep.

[PackerFanatic]

Yes wolf - I mean, sir ;)

[Narcizo]

I'm the sorceror and I have no idea which of you bostords is the wolf. But sorry I've screwed things up which ever you are.

Kill Zinto.

Unvote Packer
Vote Narcizo
Vote nightfall

[PackerFanatic]

...what?!

[spleen1015]

...what?!

No kidding.

[Zinto]

Woohoo:)

[Zinto]

Well good luck Packer on figuring out Spleen vs. Danny.

[Autumn]

narcizo - packerfanatic (362), zinto (398), danny (433), spleen1015 (439), narcizo (482)

Nightfall - PackerFanatic, Danny, spleen1015, zinto, narcizo

[Danny]

Unless the wolf is Packer, since Narcizo was lying, Packer could very well be the wolf

[Autumn]

Deadline.

You drag Narcizo to the gallows, unanimous, and he does not fight, but taunts you as he goes down swinging.

Night begins.

[Zinto]

Unless the wolf is Packer, since Narcizo was lying, Packer could very well be the wolf


Very true regardless good luck anyone who is a villager. :)

[Autumn]

I will give until 4:00 EST for night actions

[spleen1015]

Unless the wolf is Packer, since Narcizo was lying, Packer could very well be the wolf

Those are my thoughts, too.

I have a bad feeling that you're the mastermind wolf behind all of this. Your bouncing all over the place today has me really really wondering.

[Danny]

I will most likely be voting packer, it still can't get why the wolves would not have killed him, but Narc's story didn't seem likely either, and now I know that both could be bad, it makes more sense.

[Danny]

Or I was a villager with no idea. I think if I was a wolf, I would have made my case for someone and stuck with it.

[PackerFanatic]

Or done exactly what you did just to throw us all off. I can't imagine spleen being the wolf at this point.

[Danny]

So Packer you are saying that you find it more likely that I pushed for my wolf partner in bhlloy to be lynched instead of Spleen on day two? I could have easily switched to Spleen after you revealed instead of Spleen. My guess is you are hoping to stay off Spleen in hopes that he will vote with you

[Danny]

So Packer you are saying that you find it more likely that I pushed for my wolf partner in bhlloy to be lynched instead of Spleen on day two? I could have easily switched to Spleen after you revealed instead of bhllloy. My guess is you are hoping to stay off Spleen in hopes that he will vote with you

corrected

[PackerFanatic]

Either you did it after everyone else did yesterday (as you were pushing for me earlier than that) or spleen did it right from the get go. I see the situation with you joining the crowd late much more likely than spleen pushing bhlloy the first time, then casting the deciding vote on him right before deadline (even if he was trying to save himself)

[PackerFanatic]

I also find it hard to believe we were wolf-wolf yesterday.

[Danny]

We now know the seer had to be Chubby or Jag and the first wolf bhlloy or Mau. I will look at scenarios to see the most likely wolf pairing with Packer, Spleen, Mau and Bh before voting