Werewolf XXXVI: Resident Evil (S.T.A.R.S. Wins! Post #1424)

[Tyrith]

At this point I don't see how we're going to avoid a cronin lynch, for good or evil. I suspect this is a dogpile oncoming.

[SnDvls]

there is only one person that hasn't checked in correct, bullett?

[hoopsguy]

I would prefer to get to a two horse race here. I've already noted that I think Cronin has a higher chance than the average player to be a Umbrella/Zombie so I'm pretty comfortable with him being one of the two players. Of the other candidates with votes I guess I would have Bullet (no appearance in thread) a little ahead of the others at the moment.

VOTE BULLETSPONGE

[SnDvls]

I would prefer to get to a two horse race here. I've already noted that I think Cronin has a higher chance than the average player to be a Umbrella/Zombie so I'm pretty comfortable with him being one of the two players. Of the other candidates with votes I guess I would have Bullet (no appearance in thread) a little ahead of the others at the moment.

VOTE BULLETSPONGE


damn that's where I was going to go...now it would look like a pile on or forcing a tie.

[hoopsguy]

On Lathum, I suggested that he may exaggerate his time away from the computer. But I strongly doubt he is doing so in this case, with his favorite band in town and posting about it within the GD board.

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, I think it is a little early in the day to be too concerned about forcing a tie. Still eleven votes to come and six hours to break a tie ...

[spleen1015]

damn that's where I was going to go...now it would look like a pile on or forcing a tie.

This is where I planned on going as well. Hoops voting for him doesn't change that for me.

VOTE bulletsponge

[Alan T]

I will say for the record that if anyone ties the vote at deadline accidentally or otherwise, I'll vote you tommorrow for lynch just for wasting a day for us.

My biggest concern of a close two person race is someone messes with the vote at the end. I dont mind if someone messes with it to lynch someone last minute, because we have a voting record of that. To me in this game voting to tie it will be unexecusable, so be warned!

[Lathum]

maybe bulletsponge is still drunk...

[SnDvls]

SnDvls, I think it is a little early in the day to be too concerned about forcing a tie. Still eleven votes to come and six hours to break a tie ...

in the last game "Saw" I thought it was a little early for everyone to jump on Tryth (sp?) and it still happened.

with everyone over analyzing at times I just don't want to be dragged down that route since I saw what it did in the last game.

it's still where I'm leaning if he doesn't check in. I just want to give him a chance to say something first.

[spleen1015]

I will say for the record that if anyone ties the vote at deadline accidentally or otherwise, I'll vote you tommorrow for lynch just for wasting a day for us.

My biggest concern of a close two person race is someone messes with the vote at the end. I dont mind if someone messes with it to lynch someone last minute, because we have a voting record of that. To me in this game voting to tie it will be unexecusable, so be warned!

That is exactly why I voted now. I don't want to get it in in the last hour and have that become suspect.

[SnDvls]

sorry Tyrith I forgot your "i" in my last post.

[hoopsguy]

I would prefer to have a vote in earlier in most cases in order to give the recipient an opportunity to respond. Just as I would prefer to have the opportunity to respond if I am the target of votes in a game.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith loves it when people butcher his name. It is a promise that if (when?) I vote for him this game that I will drop two random letters in the mix.

[path12]

Well, I guess I wasn't clear enough. My thought was that regular Stars would NOT be likely to cast a FIRST vote - not an early vote.

But by that logic Lathum should be your vote, right? I'm trying to figure out where you're going here and the best I can come up with is that you're hypothizing that Lathum is the police chief and voted first for someone not on his list -- but that's a really bold play for day 1 IMO.

[Alan T]

Whatever huupsgye

[SnDvls]

I would prefer to have a vote in earlier in most cases in order to give the recipient an opportunity to respond. Just as I would prefer to have the opportunity to respond if I am the target of votes in a game.

I guess we differ here. I like to get more information before putting a vote out. See if someone comes out with info or like in the tombstone game people adding to other's info or refuting info. I guess you could call it blade-itis. :)

[Tyrith]

Tyrith loves it when people butcher his name. It is a promise that if (when?) I vote for him this game that I will drop two random letters in the mix.

See if I talk to you anymore :P

[SnDvls]

Tyrith loves it when people butcher his name. It is a promise that if (when?) I vote for him this game that I will drop two random letters in the mix.

I guess I really didn't need to appoligize as I've seen my name spelled so many different ways in WW games anymore too.

[Lathum]

so has anyone ever googled their name and werewolf I.E.

Lathum werewolf

it's kind of weird

[Alan T]

I guess we differ here. I like to get more information before putting a vote out. See if someone comes out with info or like in the tombstone game people adding to other's info or refuting info. I guess you could call it blade-itis. :)

I think I was pretty fair in how I handled my vote. I waited until noon today, and 12 hours after the roles actually went out before I put the vote on him. I stated earlier in the thread he would likely be my target and gave the reasons why.

It wasn't a suprise when this game was going to start or what the deadline was. His not being here to refute anything that was said just reinforces my reasons for voting him in the first place.

I'm not championing a bulletsponge vote here among the masses, but what I am trying to champion is perhaps this game we should change things a bit and not vote for someone who is a valid contributer on day 1 and give them a bit more rope to either free themselves or hang themselves.

I don't remember the last time we had a day 1 bad guy lynched that didn't involve a night 0 seer getting lucky. So this time I'm interested in us trying things a bit differently.

We know who want to eliminate the people who will be contributing to analysis, so why do we want to help them on day 1 with a gut feel?

[Alan T]

so has anyone ever googled their name and werewolf I.E.

Lathum werewolf

it's kind of weird

mine isnt as cool :(

[Tyrith]

I'm conflicted here. I want UTR to die, but I also have to go with the logic that cronin has a better chance of being a bad guy. However, cronin's play seems highly, well, stupid for that. It's one of those things that a wolf would have to think that there is a high probablity of getting him lynched.

I really doubt cronin is a zombie, this play is just too nuts for a three man team. He could be an umbrella with a bad role, which would allow him to take some risks. I can't imagine an umbrella with a powerful role doing something this brazen. So even if we lynch him and he's bad, he's not going to be a powerful bad guy unless he just went totally psycho.

I really, really want to enforce the kill the UTRs plan. I'm sick of lynching people for having independent thoughts. So, for now, I'm going to go on the bullet side, even though cronin could very well be bad.

VOTE BULLETSPONGE

[hoopsguy]

SnDvls, I agree that you want to collect enough information for a solid vote. That usually means giving people time to post after Night PMs have been sent, see if anything comes into play, etc. On Day 1, with that information not in play I think it puts people in a tough position to delay on votes until the final hour or two.

Getting a vote out early (relative term) gives the recipient a bigger range of time to be in the thread and realize their situation. It allows people an opportunity to respond in whatever manner is appropriate based on the circumstances. The most annoying time to collect votes, in my experience, is a end-of-day shift. Because, in many cases, you are stuck. No time to mount a defense, maybe enough time to reveal info that can be used after your death, etc.

[Lathum]

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=AlanT+werewolf


alan, look about halfway down the page

[SnDvls]

vote bulletsponge

you can see my reasons in post #252, 254 & 260

[Tyrith]

5 - bullet - alan (180), hoops (253), sndvls (276), spleen (257), tyrith (273)
3 - cronin - anxiety (235), fouts (120), lathum (246)
1 - hoops - cronin (125)
1 - fouts - ntn (184)
1 - brian - kwhit (190)

NO VOTE: brian, bullet, chief, glen, LSG, Wednesday, path, saldana

[KWhit]

I like the way the vote is going. I think either BS or StC would be a good choice for lynch tonight (for different reasons, as others have already stated). So I'm going to move my vote to one of the 2 candidates. At this point, I don't have a problem voting for either one, so just to keep things close and possibly put pressure on the bad guys' votes...

Unvote BrianD
Vote St. Cronin

[path12]

I'll get an early vote in and keep it between the two for now, but for the record I am nowhere near sold on this vote and am very willing to move it:

Vote st.cronin

[Tyrith]

I like the two horse race we have going, so long as we can narrow it down to one person and get 2-3 extra votes on them before deadline so we can avoid screwiness. Just a note.

I will not be around for lynch, I suspect. I'm gonna be leaving around 6 EST and if I'm back it's gonna be right at the deadline, so I probably won't be able to move my vote at that point.

[BrianD]

I was going to vote st.cronin to keep from a runaway bandwagon on Bullet, but since it is about tied up now, I'll vote for the less active...

Vote Bulletsponge

[hoopsguy]

Votes as of Post #281:

(6) Bulletsponge - Alan (180), Hoops (253), Spleen (257), Tyrith (273), SnDvls (276), BrianD (281)
(5) St.Cronin - Fouts (120), Anxiety (235), Lathum (246), KWhit (278), Path (279)
(1) Hoopsguy - st.cronin (125)
(1) Fouts - Ntndeacon (184)

[saldana]

vote bulletsponge

i spent the rest of the day at work contemplating things, and i am relatively sure that cronin is a good guy. i have no take on bullet at this point, but unless i am way off base, cronin and i are on the same team...my vote is to keep him alive.

[Abe Sargent]

so has anyone ever googled their name and werewolf I.E.

Lathum werewolf

it's kind of weird

The probelm with that is my nick is actually a realy word, so when you google Anxiety Werewolf you get anxiety disorders where people think werewolves are after them and that sort of thing.


-Anxiety

[saldana]

with the deadline being as late as it is, i will be back before the end of the day, but i will be out for the evening...going to a buddy's to drink beer and watch baseball.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Having been on the wrong side of one of these before, I sympathize with bulletsponge, but it's approaching the point of being too late for him to show up.

I plan to be around approaching the deadline to change my vote if needed.

VOTE bulletsponge

[Chubby]

(1) Hoopsguy - st.cronin (125)
(5) St.cronin - Fouts (120), Anxiety (235), Lathum (246), KWhit (278), path12 (279)
(8) Bulletsponge - Alan (180), hoopsguy (253), spleen (257), tyrith (273), SnDvls (276), BrianD (281), saldana (283),
Mr Wednesday (286)
(1) Fouts - Ntndeacon (184)

[Tyrith]

Out until around lynch.

[Fouts]

Wow, some good reading for today. I like the 2 lynch candidate option. You can tell alot from somebodies vote in a close race between 2 candidates.

Especially when they all come one after the other.

(This is assuming they aren't both STARS)

[LoneStarGirl]

Damn, now i am in a predicament. I know how you guys think. When day 4 or 5 comes around you are giong to look at these voting records and see who just snuck in and added a vote to avoid attention. I know bullet hasn't been around much, but i dont feel like voting for him.
So
Vote St. Cronin

[Alan T]

Wow, some good reading for today. I like the 2 lynch candidate option. You can tell alot from somebodies vote in a close race between 2 candidates.

Especially when they all come one after the other.

(This is assuming they aren't both STARS)

That was my first thought. I enjoyed wastching the sudden run all on bulletsponge, followed by the sudden run all on St.cronin. At first it felt a bit off to me. I have since reconsidered that some thinking that it also could be due to people wanting to keep things closer and push the issue some. So they would vote for the person further behind to try to keep it close.

I am not sure yet if its vote manipulation or not, but I guess if someone turns up bad tonight, its something to consider.

[Alan T]

One other thought popped into my mind on the way home that has not been brought up today. We know that some people have the lucky "Trait" which can affect the voting. One thing that I think has to be kept in mind that even though one person might have a 2-3 vote lead over another, the "true" total might be much closer or further apart due to the lucky voters.

Those people voting for the person behind the vote should probably keep that in mind somewhat. My guess is that on day 1, no one is lucky since no one has voted for the opposite faction the day before. I however am just guessing at that, it could start the other way around where everyone who is lucky starts with it enabled and keep it enabled until they vote poorly.. That seems far less to make sense or practical though.

My guess is tonight no one who is lucky has it enabled, however those who voted for the opposite faction tommorrow might have it kick in.

Those that push for a close vote need to remember that it could inadvertently get us a tie one of these days.

[hoopsguy]

I'm wondering how I would react if I was the Police Chief at this point and saw a two-horse race between people who are both STARS? The person cannot reveal their identity and their value only increases over the game. Do you think this person would sigh and move on to day two, hoping that we do a better job of picking up on their thoughts tomorrow or would they try to move today's action behind the scenes?

Alternatively, how giddy must that individual be if we have two non-STARS in the cross-fire here? If there is one from each faction then party lines should be getting drawn pretty clearly here. IAs of right now I'm thinking this is not the case because it hasn't seemed like there has been much in the way of impassioned defense on the behalf of either candidate. If the zombies were in position to lose one of their own I would expect at least a token effort to move the vote. Probably the same would hold true for Umbrella, although the suspicion is that they have better numbers ...

[Alan T]

I'm wondering how I would react if I was the Police Chief at this point and saw a two-horse race between people who are both STARS? The person cannot reveal their identity and their value only increases over the game. Do you think this person would sigh and move on to day two, hoping that we do a better job of picking up on their thoughts tomorrow or would they try to move today's action behind the scenes?

Alternatively, how giddy must that individual be if we have two non-STARS in the cross-fire here? If there is one from each faction then party lines should be getting drawn pretty clearly here. IAs of right now I'm thinking this is not the case because it hasn't seemed like there has been much in the way of impassioned defense on the behalf of either candidate. If the zombies were in position to lose one of their own I would expect at least a token effort to move the vote. Probably the same would hold true for Umbrella, although the suspicion is that they have better numbers ...

If I was the police chief and it was a run off between two Stars, or 1 stars and someone else, I say nothing.

The importance of the police chief isn't in one person on their team, its in the collective CoT that they can develop. Its pretty important that the police chief lasts till day 4-6 somewhere with visible proof once they are dead to who -not- to trust. If they push their role too much early on, they likely will either draw suspicion and end up a possible lynch choice, or they will get attention from people who will kill at night.

Its a long game, its important for them to keep the big picture in mind and not just the short term.

[Alan T]

As for impassioned defense, part of my gut told me that since I couldn't get anyone to vote for the only person who hadn't shown up yet, who was a newer player and not as established as some that i was on to something.

I could be wrong, but in day 1 I read as much into inaction as I do into action at times. If I couldnt convince anyone else to vote for someone thats that much dead weight on a day 1 vote for 75 posts, and 5 votes for other people it made me feel that people were trying to avoid that selection.

[Fouts]

Couple thoughts;

Alan - After seeing the 2 different runs, I am pretty sure they both can't be STARS. I also think some of the late voters are trying to hide in there (probably obvious).

hoops - The Police Chief could come out and name all the STARS members, but that would pretty much kill the game. Is this a flaw in the game mechanic? I'm sure Chubby is relying on the Police Chief to be honorable.

[Alan T]

Couple thoughts;

Alan - After seeing the 2 different runs, I am pretty sure they both can't be STARS. I also think some of the late voters are trying to hide in there (probably obvious).

hoops - The Police Chief could come out and name all the STARS members, but that would pretty much kill the game. Is this a flaw in the game mechanic? I'm sure Chubby is relying on the Police Chief to be honorable.

He said in the game rules that there is some mechanic built in that revealing such would be severe consequences. I have no idea what that would be, but can imagine such a critical thing to get across would likely be game dooming for the STARS if the chief did that.

The ability for the chief to form the CoT is going to lie in looking at his actions post-mortem I think more than anything else.

[hoopsguy]

I'm not advocating any kind of information leak from the Police Chief - just trying to envision what the game must be like for that role. I concur with Alan that they have to ride today out even if there are two STARS colliding here, although I would imagine that is pretty frustrating.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Alan, I held off on voting for him because I wanted to give him a chance to show up before the bandwagon picked up steam. As I said, I've been on the wrong side of that before... I forget which game it was, but I was busy on the weekend and didn't check in until something like 5 pm on Monday, only to find that a big enough bandwagon had piled up on me that my appearance was too late to move enough people off.

[Fouts]

Alan, I held off on voting for him because I wanted to give him a chance to show up before the bandwagon picked up steam. As I said, I've been on the wrong side of that before... I forget which game it was, but I was busy on the weekend and didn't check in until something like 5 pm on Monday, only to find that a big enough bandwagon had piled up on me that my appearance was too late to move enough people off.

Exactly why I placed an early vote. If you miss day 1 or even forget to vote, people will lynch you. I like it as it encourages participation early in the game, even if we are wrong.

While I voted for st.cronin as a revenge type vote, I think its interesting how fast bullet piled up the votes.

[Alan T]

Exactly why I placed an early vote. If you miss day 1 or even forget to vote, people will lynch you. I like it as it encourages participation early in the game, even if we are wrong.

While I voted for st.cronin as a revenge type vote, I think its interesting how fast bullet piled up the votes.

Maybe its because I was here all day and you wern't, but to me it took forever for Bullet to get a second vote. It was actually interesting to me to see how fast the momentum on St.cronin all of the sudden sped up in the afternoon. Then suddenly out of nowhere bullet got 4 votes to go into the lead followed by Cronin getting back to back, then bullet getting 3 in a row.

To me its been kind of like watching a pendulum swing all day and I've been sitting here trying to figure out what to make of it.

For those curious what I mean, this is the day's vote pattern so far:


(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)
(190) Kwhit votes BrianD (1)
(235) Anxiety votes St.Cronin (2)
(246) Lathum UNVOTES Hoopsguy (1) ***
(246) Lathum votes St.cronin (3)
(253) Hoopsguy votes Bulletsponge (2)
(257) spleen votes bulletsponge (3)
(273) Tyrith votes Bulletsponge (4)
(276) Sndvls votes Bulletsponge (5)
(278) Kwhit UNVOTES BrianD (0) ***
(278) Kwhit votes Stcronin (4)
(279) Path votes Stcronin (5)
(281) BrianD votes Bulletsponge (6)
(283) Saldana votes Bulletsponge (7)
(286) Mr. Wednesday votes Bulletsponge (8)
(290) Lonestargirl votes St.cronin (6)

[Alan T]

While post number isn't always an accurate measure of time, it can at least give you the idea above on how there has been clumps of voters for both Bullet and cronin today

[Glengoyne]

The people in the middle are the moderately experienced players who I've been around/read in the past. Except for Brian, he's a total wildcard for me. So I suppose I should add Glen to my lynch group, but his performance in Tombstone impressed me some.

Hey so you are a fan of the way I drew the suspicion from pretty much every quarter except the wolves, who figured I was harmlessly spinning my wheels, and got myself thrown in jail. Cool. I'm actually hoping to do better this game, and possibly not be so ...err...manic. Anyway enough about Cowboys, we need to head shot some zombies.

[Alan T]

I find it very suspicious that none of you posted in the last hour. I think all of you are bad!

[hoopsguy]

And now that the board is back I'm probably out until deadline. Perfect.

[Alan T]

And now that the board is back I'm probably out until deadline. Perfect.

time to orchestrate the crazy vote shift to hoops. Go!

[Glengoyne]

... but what I am trying to champion is perhaps this game we should change things a bit and not vote for someone who is a valid contributer on day 1 and give them a bit more rope to either free themselves or hang themselves.
...

I'm liking this line of thought here. I've been fairly uncomfortable with the Day one options I've experienced or even seen in the WW games I've gone back and read. Day one sucks.

[Glengoyne]

Vote Bullet

It's frankly all we have to go on.

[Glengoyne]

As I've done that now. I'm wondering if simply voting for the guy who hasn't shown up is almost as bad as not having a lynch. I mean what does it mean that everyone voted for Bullet? He didn't show up. I don't think we're going to learn anything with this lynch except for Bullet's alignment.

[Glengoyne]

While post number isn't always an accurate measure of time, it can at least give you the idea above on how there has been clumps of voters for both Bullet and cronin today

My vote is seperated by an hour and a half.

[Glengoyne]

Are you guys there?

Why does it always seem like I'm talking to myself when I play WW?

[Alan T]

Are you guys there?

Why does it always seem like I'm talking to myself when I play WW?

The first step to curing your problem is admitting you have a problem

[Chief Rum]

Vote Lathum

Why? Well, I'm still bitter about Tombstone. :)

Seriously, this one is decided, and I don't have enough time before deadline to analyze why st cronin and bullet have attracted this much attention.

[Alan T]

Vote Lathum

Why? Well, I'm still bitter about Tombstone. :)

Seriously, this one is decided, and I don't have enough time before deadline to analyze why st cronin and bullet have attracted this much attention.

You have 2 hours. Deadline is 11pm esT. so knock yourself out.

[Fouts]

Geez, I guess the board is breaking down. We should lynch whoever is responsible!

Still 2 more hours for the lynch candidates to persuade the jury.

[st.cronin]

But by that logic Lathum should be your vote, right? I'm trying to figure out where you're going here and the best I can come up with is that you're hypothizing that Lathum is the police chief and voted first for someone not on his list -- but that's a really bold play for day 1 IMO.

Yes, this is what I was thinking.

unvote hoopsguy

vote Bulletsponge

It really is amazing to me how every game the players who try to encourage strategic play get lynched.

[Fouts]

It really is amazing to me how every game the players who try to encourage strategic play get lynched.

Tell everyone you can't be night killed and you are a sure lynch victim. This game is wacky sometimes.

[Chief Rum]

You have 2 hours. Deadline is 11pm esT. so knock yourself out.

Heh, heh, shoot, your'e right. I forgot.

UNVOTE LATHUM

For now... ;)

[Alan T]

Yes, this is what I was thinking.

unvote hoopsguy

vote Bulletsponge

It really is amazing to me how every game the players who try to encourage strategic play get lynched.

I didn't vote for you, but to be the devil's advocate, I stated my case on why your move didn't make much sense to me and as far as I saw I don't think I ever got back a response that made complete sense to me.

For me I feel I have been giving you a very large amount of latitude though since its day 1. If I were to vote for you today it wouldnt be because you tried to encourage strategic play, its because you were inconsistant between your theory and your move.

[Alan T]

What a very uneventful night 1!

[Glengoyne]

What a very uneventful night 1!

I have problem. You said it.

I'm biting my tongue.

[hoopsguy]

Glen, I'm around for awhile if you are looking to carry on an in-game chat. The dynamics might be a little different than last time we went down this path ...

[Glengoyne]

What I'm thinking is that my original position about this vote not helping may be wrong. We do have the shifts and spurts that the votes appeared. Perhaps we have a bunch of people communicating behind the scenes moving the vote off of their guy? Maybe that is where everyone is now. PMing each other rather than posting? The dynamic of so many players aware of each other should be interesting.

[Alan T]

Well Im not sure how much this vote will or will not help us. Of course to argue, if you have 2 STARs in a vote off, it wont tell you anything either.

I think I learned some about how people approached this vote during the day though. Thats something

[Glengoyne]

Glen, I'm around for awhile if you are looking to carry on an in-game chat. The dynamics might be a little different than last time we went down this path ...


Well I certainly wouldn't want to get you lynched or end up one vote shy myself either, so a new dynamic sounds good. I'm probably out until after the deadline now though. I've got to get a bite and get home. I'll be game if you're up late we can look at the votes, and see what there is to see.

[hoopsguy]

I think I'll be in and out up to the deadline tonight, but I'm not sure how much there is to add at this point. Votes seem to be in, Bullet doesn't seem to be showing, and we'll see how the game plays out from there.

[Chubby]

About 40 minutes to go til lynch.

[Fouts]

With 2 of the teams being able to communicate, what are the chances that bullet is on one of them?

[Fouts]

Meaning... wouldn't they move to protect him?

[Alan T]

Would you risk outing your entire team on day 1 for a teammate who hasnt even shown up yet?

[Fouts]

Would you risk outing your entire team on day 1 for a teammate who hasnt even shown up yet?

Not at all. I meant during that wild vote swing we had earlier. I'm trying to figure out what emphasis to put on it.

[path12]

Wow, out for four hours and only about a page to catch up on. But I guess with bullet not showing up it's made it a fairly easy choice and it's just a matter now of seeing who he belonged to.

[hoopsguy]

On that point - the vote swings took place earlier in the day, when we really didn't know if Bullet was going to show up or not.

[Fouts]

And the WS game is postponed until tomorrow. Bummer.

[Fouts]

Someone mentioned Lucky having a factor in this vote. I don't think it will until tomorrow at the earliest.

*Lucky - Day vote counts double as long as the player voted for a member of an opposing faction the previous day.

[path12]

Frankly, I don't see the huge swings. What I saw was a major meta-game move -- it's as if we as a community of players decided to stay away from the typical day 1 argument and deliberately make it a two person race -- which the continued absence of bullet decided early. The more I think about it, the whole thing probably helps the zombies and umbrella more than anyone else since it will mask voting to a certain extent.

[Alan T]

Someone mentioned Lucky having a factor in this vote. I don't think it will until tomorrow at the earliest.

I was the one who brought up the lucky stuff and I said it would likely not be in effect till tommorrow. Unless you are talking about someone else

[Mr. Wednesday]

I just want to state, for the record, that my vote was in no way influenced by out-of-thread communication (if, as may be the case, it appears to fall in the middle of a blot of votes). My reasoning was my own, influenced by the in-thread discussion.

[hoopsguy]

Why do you think it helps the zombies and umbrella at this point? That argument only really makes sense to me if there are two STARS in the dispute. Then both sides can dump votes wherever it is convenient to do so.

But if this is not the case, I would expect some effort to try and keep their man alive. I would be very surprised to see more than one early vote on a teammate, in the event that Bullet is revealed as a non-STAR.

[Mr. Wednesday]

it's as if we as a community of players decided to stay away from the typical day 1 argument and deliberately make it a two person race

Maybe it's that I've been out of games for a while (until I got back in with Barkeep's game), but I don't remember there being a strong trend in this direction. Usually, things seemed to revolve around:
* a few people being relatively random
* occasional overanalysis of a chance comment that almost never actually accomplished anything
* a critical mass developing on one person and driving the voting, typically turning things into a two- or three-horse race as the one on the block tries to swing things to someone else.

[Fouts]

I was the one who brought up the lucky stuff and I said it would likely not be in effect till tommorrow. Unless you are talking about someone else

Ok. I didn't look back, it just hit me as I was reviewing the rules.

[path12]

Why do you think it helps the zombies and umbrella at this point? That argument only really makes sense to me if there are two STARS in the dispute. Then both sides can dump votes wherever it is convenient to do so.

But if this is not the case, I would expect some effort to try and keep their man alive. I would be very surprised to see more than one early vote on a teammate, in the event that Bullet is revealed as a non-STAR.

I think that's kind of where I'm going -- the lack of real defense on either side makes me afraid we've got two stars in here.

[Chief Rum]

No post up until this point is a bad move when you're on the verge of a lynching. Sorry bullet.

VOTE BULLETSPONGE

[path12]

Maybe it's that I've been out of games for a while (until I got back in with Barkeep's game), but I don't remember there being a strong trend in this direction. Usually, things seemed to revolve around:
* a few people being relatively random
* occasional overanalysis of a chance comment that almost never actually accomplished anything
* a critical mass developing on one person and driving the voting, typically turning things into a two- or three-horse race as the one on the block tries to swing things to someone else.

I think it's been a fairly recent thing, or maybe it's just my imagination, but it seems to me that there has been more instances in say the last four-five games where two people jump on one point of an initial post, start to argue about it and end up on the block. RealDeal getting lynched for saying he couldn't be night killed, things like that.

I very well could be misreading it.

[path12]

OK, out until after lynch. I need to go clean and prep my future den for painting.

[hoopsguy]

Earlier in the game Alan noted that people were giving up their allegiance too early in the game if they are STARS and expected that there were some fake reveals taking place. I ran through the initial posts of all 18 people who checked in today - everyone was in by 11AM EST. Nice to see that kind of participation.

In that group there was not one person who came out and claimed STARS. I was pretty public in doing so when I was getting tossed around as an early candidate, but I did not see this as some kind of epidemic condition where the majority of people were tipping their hand.

Over the course of today's posts I started putting together some ideas about what people might be doing in the game, but they represent nothing more than guesses at this point ... anyways, I did not find this to be as prevalent as was suggested.

[Alan T]

Earlier in the game Alan noted that people were giving up their allegiance too early in the game if they are STARS and expected that there were some fake reveals taking place. I ran through the initial posts of all 18 people who checked in today - everyone was in by 11AM EST. Nice to see that kind of participation.

In that group there was not one person who came out and claimed STARS. I was pretty public in doing so when I was getting tossed around as an early candidate, but I did not see this as some kind of epidemic condition where the majority of people were tipping their hand.

Over the course of today's posts I started putting together some ideas about what people might be doing in the game, but they represent nothing more than guesses at this point ... anyways, I did not find this to be as prevalent as was suggested.


I don't think you looked closely. I had 4 - 5 people who came out and said they were stars or strongly hinted it. I said thats how many I had, and didnt say it was an epidemic. I asked out of curiosity why those 4-5 people did that.

Now out of curiosity, why are you misrepresenting what I said?

[Alan T]

I'm curious to the three or four people who said you were stars or hinted it, what was your reasoning for doing so rather than hiding in the shadows with the majority.

Just for the record, this is what I said.. don't think I made this out to be an epidemic... You seem to be blowing this up a bit more than it was

[Chubby]

time check

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I have not gone through each of the posts, but I did note the first post for each person, which is the one that usually reads "villager checking in".

There was not a single one of those 18 that indicated faction. I'll list the post numbers if you want to get down to brass tacks on this point.

If the point was that later in the game people were identifying faction, then I will have to re-read a couple of hundred posts instead of the 50 or so it took to put this list together.

Conceptually, I agree that it is not necessarily the best option for everyone to reveal faction on Day #1.

In terms of why I reacted to it, perhaps it was the next line that followed the part you quoted just now.

My initial instinct in this game was the people who came out and said they were Stars members psychologically had a greater chance of being Umbrella members than anything else.

As one of the people who revealed as STARS, this caught my attention. As did the "look like you are candidate #1" post this morning. Basically, I have entered Alan T paranoia mode; I guess you can decide whether or not it is worth arguing if it is justified.

[Chubby]

It's the first day since Special Investigator Ben Lewis' body was found with what appeared to be teeth marks in his skull.

"We must find the zombies!" cried the citizens of Raccoon City.

After much discussion it was settled that bulletsponge must be a zombie for he was up for execution all day and couldn't even mount a defense! bulletsponge was brought to the townsquare for his judgement.

"How do we kill a zombie? Aren't they already dead?" wondered the crowd.

The executioner emerged from the crowd with a shotgun in hand. Surely such a weapon would ummm REALLY kill the undead! Three shots to the head and bulletsponge slumped to the crowd. There was a murmur from the crowd of onlookers as the coroner looked over his body...

He found a gun and holster, like that of the wild wild west. Was bulletsponge a wannabe gunslinger? Was he a zombie???

As the coroner took a blood sample from bulletsponge it was determined... he was NOT a zombie. The crowd started to grumble as they headed home in time for the curfew. Before dragging the body back to the morgue to be burned, it was noticed that bulletsponge had a small tattoo of what appeared to be a four leaf clover hidden on his ankle.


Night One ends Thursday at 9am EST.

[hoopsguy]

Bullet coming up as a non-STAR would go a little ways towards relieving this paranoia as you were the first person to position him as a candidate. Bullet coming up as a STAR will probably increase it.

[BrianD]

So apparently Bullet was going to be lucky?

[Alan T]

Alan, I have not gone through each of the posts, but I did note the first post for each person, which is the one that usually reads "villager checking in".

There was not a single one of those 18 that indicated faction. I'll list the post numbers if you want to get down to brass tacks on this point.

If the point was that later in the game people were identifying faction, then I will have to re-read a couple of hundred posts instead of the 50 or so it took to put this list together.

Conceptually, I agree that it is not necessarily the best option for everyone to reveal faction on Day #1.

In terms of why I reacted to it, perhaps it was the next line that followed the part you quoted just now.



As one of the people who revealed as STARS, this caught my attention. As did the "look like you are candidate #1" post this morning. Basically, I have entered Alan T paranoia mode; I guess you can decide whether or not it is worth arguing if it is justified.

I quoted what I said, so not much to argue. You said I said it was an epidemic, I said it was 3-4 people :)

I asked what the motivation for those people who revealed as such were, and didnt get alot of people responding other than you. :)

[hoopsguy]

Clover, I assume = lucky? For the people familiar with RE, I'm guessing this doesn't mean anything at all in terms of Umbrella?

[BrianD]

Clover, I assume = lucky? For the people familiar with RE, I'm guessing this doesn't mean anything at all in terms of Umbrella?

Page 1 has his listed as S.T.A.R.S.

[Alan T]

Looks like on page 1, he was a STARS

[Alan T]

With the gun and holster, Im guessing he might have been the sniper.

[hoopsguy]

Roles will be revealed upon your brutal death.

From the end of the rules post.

[hoopsguy]

For the record, here is what I show for the final vote.

(11) Bulletsponge - Alan (180), Hoops (253), Spleen (257), Tyrith (273), SnDvls (276), BrianD (281), Saldana (283), MrW (286), Glen (308), Cronin (316), Chief (343)

(6) St.Cronin - Fouts (120), Anxiety (235), Lathum (246), KWhit (278), Path (279), LSG (290)

(1) Fouts - Ntndeacon (184)

[Alan T]

Thats what I have also. Here is the voting path of the day:

(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)
(190) Kwhit votes BrianD (1)
(235) Anxiety votes St.Cronin (2)
(246) Lathum UNVOTES Hoopsguy (1) ***
(246) Lathum votes St.cronin (3)
(253) Hoopsguy votes Bulletsponge (2)
(257) spleen votes bulletsponge (3)
(273) Tyrith votes Bulletsponge (4)
(276) Sndvls votes Bulletsponge (5)
(278) Kwhit UNVOTES BrianD (0) ***
(278) Kwhit votes Stcronin (4)
(279) Path votes Stcronin (5)
(281) BrianD votes Bulletsponge (6)
(283) Saldana votes Bulletsponge (7)
(286) Mr. Wednesday votes Bulletsponge (8)
(290) Lonestargirl votes St.cronin (6)
(308) Glengoyne votes Bulletsponge (9)
(313) Chief Rum votes Lathum (1)
(316) St.Cronin UNVOTES Hoopsguy (0) ***
(316) St.cronin votes Bulletsponge (10)
(318) Chief Rum UNVOTES Lathum (0) ***
(343) Chief Rum votes Bulletsponge (11)

[Alan T]

Clover, I assume = lucky? For the people familiar with RE, I'm guessing this doesn't mean anything at all in terms of Umbrella?

lol, guess Bullet wasnt too lucky after all...


So Chubby if I look at my ankle, do I see a clover there? :)

[Mr. Wednesday]

Interesting bits, irrespective of bullet's STARS role:
Tyrith and SnDvls voted in quick succession for bulletsponge to break a tie.
KWhit and path12 voted in quick succession for st.cronin to create a tie.
BrianD, Saldana, and I piled onto bulletsponge to break the tie again, with Saldana's vote ultimately serving as the lynch vote.
LSG's vote for st.cronin brought the margin within two so that a flip would have tied things up.
Chief Rum's vote was so late as to be practically a throw-away.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I'm not sure how much (if anything) indicative there is in there. We'll only know for sure once we find out st.cronin's role. :p

[Alan T]

Dola, I'm not sure how much (if anything) indicative there is in there. We'll only know for sure once we find out st.cronin's role. :p

I don't think I will be voting for St.cronin tommorrow. I have a hunch I will be playing tommorrow. But I will share it with you all in the morning. not before night actions :)

[Glengoyne]

I don't think I will be voting for St.cronin tommorrow. I have a hunch I will be playing tommorrow. But I will share it with you all in the morning. not before night actions :)

Tantilizing for the good guys, and a veiled threat or maybe a dare for the bad guys.

Nice Post.

I'm looking forward to hear you out.

[Alan T]

Tantilizing for the good guys, and a veiled threat or maybe a dare for the bad guys.

Nice Post.

I'm looking forward to hear you out.


:D

[Fouts]

Figures that bullet was a STARS. Impressive houdini defense by st.cronin.

[Tyrith]

Interesting bits, irrespective of bullet's STARS role:
Tyrith and SnDvls voted in quick succession for bulletsponge to break a tie.
KWhit and path12 voted in quick succession for st.cronin to create a tie.
BrianD, Saldana, and I piled onto bulletsponge to break the tie again, with Saldana's vote ultimately serving as the lynch vote.
LSG's vote for st.cronin brought the margin within two so that a flip would have tied things up.
Chief Rum's vote was so late as to be practically a throw-away.

I know I wasn't worried about ties at the time...it was maybe 3 CST when I voted, way too early for that kind of thing.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Sure, but they still go towards momentum onto bulletsponge. Except for LSG's later vote, I was thinking more in terms of the momentum question than the ties question.

Alan, I wasn't saying I would vote for st.cronin tomorrow. I haven't even started thinking about tomorrow yet, and st.cronin is not high on my "get" list. (Come to think of it, no one is, yet...)

[hoopsguy]

From the sounds of the roles, there are going to be a good number of night actions. We should hopefully have something more to work off of tomorrow than we did today - obviously there is the vote but perhaps someone will be able to bring forward key info as well.

[bulletsponge]

i was playing?

[Alan T]

lol

[path12]

Well, I can say I was absolutely going for a tie at the time and that was the main reason for my vote. There were still quite a lot of votes to be placed and it was early enough to make it a horserace. Bullet pulled ahead pretty steadily after my tie as it turned out.

[Glengoyne]

i was playing?

Nice.

Nothing to see here Bullet.



Oh and sorry for the vote. At least we didn't lynch you.;)

[st.cronin]

Well, I'm glad I'm around to play another day.

[Glengoyne]

From the sounds of the roles, there are going to be a good number of night actions. We should hopefully have something more to work off of tomorrow than we did today - obviously there is the vote but perhaps someone will be able to bring forward key info as well.

Yes, I'm hoping that we'll have a glorious interaction of night actions that yields some helpful information.

I'll just be sitting home with my shotgun, trying to determine who is undead.

[Alan T]

Ok.. signs that this game is getting to me.. I actually was laying in bed trying to get some sleep, and things finally clicked for me.

I'll go ahead and say what my thoughts are. I'm not too worried about dying tonight, but I have a feeling that I won't live past night 2 in this game. So I want to try to get some forward momentum going here.

I know people earlier were arguing with the way the vote shaped up today we didn't learn much.. but in fact I think I learned everything i needed to.

I'm not too sad about losing a STARS today, when the person doesnt even know he's in the game, I doubt he would have been a big contributer.. so better him than someone who could be more valuable..

That said, I was struggling all day with one little piece that just was not sitting right. Something about how St.Cronin was playing that just was not fitting into the puzzle in my head perfect. I tried to toss him some lines several times to see what he would do with them, and it got me no where.

I finally a little bit ago realized why. I was looking at things in the wrong perspective. I think I learned everything i needed to yesterday from the conversations and how the very start of the day's voting went. The interaction with lathum, Hoops, St.cronin and fouts gives me exactly what I need.

I can say with 99.9% accuracy right now the following:

1) Either Fouts or St.Cronin is not STARS
2) If we lynch Fouts and he ends up as not STARS, I fully trust Hoops and St.cronin (until at least night 3 when converstions start).
3) If Fouts ends up good, then that means St. Cronin is bad and I'm not sure if it says much about Hoops one way or another.

I'm pretty sure I'll be around tommorrow and my vote will be for Fouts. I think if Fouts dies bad like I perceive he will, it will make my trusted list:

Alan T
Hoopsguy
St.Cronin

Which is a pretty good start for day 2 I hope.

[Glengoyne]

Well, I can say I was absolutely going for a tie at the time and that was the main reason for my vote. There were still quite a lot of votes to be placed and it was early enough to make it a horserace. Bullet pulled ahead pretty steadily after my tie as it turned out.

So your saying you went for the tie? But only to force the others to "pick a horse"? I have a lot to learn about this game.

As for my vote. It was pretty well snDvls that set me down the path I chose. His argument was pretty convincing, although I don't believe Bullet was his idea. I was pretty unsatisfied going after Cronin.

[st.cronin]

Ok.. signs that this game is getting to me.. I actually was laying in bed trying to get some sleep, and things finally clicked for me.

I'll go ahead and say what my thoughts are. I'm not too worried about dying tonight, but I have a feeling that I won't live past night 2 in this game. So I want to try to get some forward momentum going here.

I know people earlier were arguing with the way the vote shaped up today we didn't learn much.. but in fact I think I learned everything i needed to.

I'm not too sad about losing a STARS today, when the person doesnt even know he's in the game, I doubt he would have been a big contributer.. so better him than someone who could be more valuable..

That said, I was struggling all day with one little piece that just was not sitting right. Something about how St.Cronin was playing that just was not fitting into the puzzle in my head perfect. I tried to toss him some lines several times to see what he would do with them, and it got me no where.

I finally a little bit ago realized why. I was looking at things in the wrong perspective. I think I learned everything i needed to yesterday from the conversations and how the very start of the day's voting went. The interaction with lathum, Hoops, St.cronin and fouts gives me exactly what I need.

I can say with 99.9% accuracy right now the following:

1) Either Fouts or St.Cronin is not STARS
2) If we lynch Fouts and he ends up as not STARS, I fully trust Hoops and St.cronin (until at least night 3 when converstions start).
3) If Fouts ends up good, then that means St. Cronin is bad and I'm not sure if it says much about Hoops one way or another.

I'm pretty sure I'll be around tommorrow and my vote will be for Fouts. I think if Fouts dies bad like I perceive he will, it will make my trusted list:

Alan T
Hoopsguy
St.Cronin

Which is a pretty good start for day 2 I hope.


That would be quite impressive if true. I don't suppose you would like to elaborate?

[Alan T]

That would be quite impressive if true. I don't suppose you would like to elaborate?

I'll just say that you aren't what I thought you were most of the day today. And that helped me answer the frustrations i was having with you completely ignoring alot of my points trying to push you for your thoughts on stuff.

I kept going back and forth debating if you were bad or not based solely on your actions. It was only when I looked at the collective actions of the whole that I pieced it together.

I might still be guessing wrong about you, but it would definitly help things be alot easier for me to develop a CoT if Fouts is bad and you are good.

All I know for sure is that either you or Fouts is bad. If this is not true, then please just lynch me since I am completely off on my analysis.

[st.cronin]

I'll just say that you aren't what I thought you were most of the day today. And that helped me answer the frustrations i was having with you completely ignoring alot of my points trying to push you for your thoughts on stuff.

I kept going back and forth debating if you were bad or not based solely on your actions. It was only when I looked at the collective actions of the whole that I pieced it together.

I might still be guessing wrong about you, but it would definitly help things be alot easier for me to develop a CoT if Fouts is bad and you are good.

All I know for sure is that either you or Fouts is bad. If this is not true, then please just lynch me since I am completely off on my analysis.

When you say "bad" do you mean not Stars?

[Alan T]

When you say "bad" do you mean not Stars?

Yep, for the case of this discussion I am considering bad = umbrella or zombies

[Alan T]

Welp back to bed for me. I'm sure this will hopefully kick up some fun discussion tommorrow :)

[Glengoyne]

So if Fouts is good.. We lynch Cronin.

If Fouts is bad Cronin is in the CoT?

I think you're going to have to flesh this out for us a bit. I'm a little uncomfortable classifying what I read in that exchange as evidence of a one for one. The wolves already have a one person head start....I don't like the idea of giving them a big lead on what might be a one for one. I think I see where you are going, but I'll need more.

[st.cronin]

I can't really wrap my head around how you came up with me or Fouts. I mean, Fouts voted for me, but I never went near him. That to me could look like two potential bad guys. I don't quite see how hoops fits in ...

what are your thoughts on Lathum?

[path12]

So your saying you went for the tie? But only to force the others to "pick a horse"? I have a lot to learn about this game.

As for my vote. It was pretty well snDvls that set me down the path I chose. His argument was pretty convincing, although I don't believe Bullet was his idea. I was pretty unsatisfied going after Cronin.

Yeah. Sometimes you can find out quite a bit from a tie when there's still time before the deadline. For instance, after I tied it up with cronin most every vote that came in after that except for LSG's was for bullet. Now that very well could just be because he wasn't around -- but it could also be because some baddies knew that he wasn't on their team. Going further, it could also mean that some people on cronin's team didn't want a close vote.

Doesn't really say anything definitive at this time (and I'm not saying cronin is bad), but couple that with Alan's recent observation and maybe it fits in with that theory. Time will tell.

[st.cronin]

I think I see where you are going, but I'll need more.

can you possibly explain it to me, cause I'm pretty stumped

[Fouts]

I can say with 99.9% accuracy right now the following:

1) Either Fouts or St.Cronin is not STARS
2) If we lynch Fouts and he ends up as not STARS, I fully trust Hoops and St.cronin (until at least night 3 when converstions start).
3) If Fouts ends up good, then that means St. Cronin is bad and I'm not sure if it says much about Hoops one way or another.

I'm pretty sure I'll be around tommorrow and my vote will be for Fouts. I think if Fouts dies bad like I perceive he will, it will make my trusted list:

Alan T
Hoopsguy
St.Cronin

Which is a pretty good start for day 2 I hope.

I call BS. 99.9%? You get all that from me voting on st.cronin because he cut my throat last game?

[Fouts]

Just to get this straight before we start day 2. Sacrificing Fouts to find out if st.cronin is bad, is NOT an option I support.

Play it straight, don't go lynching people willy nilly because of some so-called "99.9%" hunch. Work it out based on actual evidence.

[st.cronin]

I call BS. 99.9%? You get all that from me voting on st.cronin because he cut my throat last game?

I don't get it, either.

[Glengoyne]

can you possibly explain it to me, cause I'm pretty stumped


I think Fouts is onto it, but I think there must be more.

I'm too tired to even try connecting the dots. I just deleted a sentence about corn dogs and tacos, I'm seriously typing in my sleep. nite all.

[Fouts]

And finally,

Lest we all forget, Alan started the voting on bullet, and campaigned to have him lynched. Now he is creating a smokescreen for day 2, so we all forget the blood on his hands.

[st.cronin]

Well, I have no idea what anybody is talking about, right now.

[Glengoyne]

Just to get this straight before we start day 2. Sacrificing Fouts to find out if st.cronin is bad, is NOT an option I support.

Play it straight, don't go lynching people willy nilly because of some so-called "99.9%" hunch. Work it out based on actual evidence.

I did smile when I read Alan's post, cause I thought to myself. Well I'll bet Fouts would rather trade places with Cronin.

[st.cronin]

Lathum, do you have any idea what these guys are talking about?

[Fouts]

I did smile when I read Alan's post, cause I thought to myself. Well I'll bet Fouts would rather trade places with Cronin.

No. I'm not into trading one for one, when they both could possibly be on the same side. This looks like a perfect move for a bad guy, get two people lined up for a fight on day 2. Unfortunately for Alan, we have some veterans that won't fall for that.

[Fouts]

And further, just because one of us are lynched and come up good, doesn't mean the other is bad.

[Lathum]

Lathum, do you have any idea what these guys are talking about?

no clue but my brain is fried after spending the night at a punk rock show so I am pretty much useless as I eat my egg sandwich.

FWIW AlanT is playing the helpfull villegar role that i've seen him play as a baddie before in the animal farm game. He talked alot prior to getting his role and I think he feels the need to back it up.

[Chief Rum]

no clue but my brain is fried after spending the night at a punk rock show so I am pretty much useless as I eat my egg sandwich.

FWIW AlanT is playing the helpfull villegar role that i've seen him play as a baddie before in the animal farm game. He talked alot prior to getting his role and I think he feels the need to back it up.

To be fair, I have seen Alan play this sort of role in games where he is a villager, too. He is often very active early in the game.

[Fouts]

Well All I can say is I have been there before. I very rarely am a night kill by bad guys because usually the good guys find some reason to want to lynch me in the first few days. I talk alot in WW games, throw out alot of ideas (some of them better than others) and I want to encourage others to contribute with meaningful conversation.



I'll go ahead and say what my thoughts are. I'm not too worried about dying tonight, but I have a feeling that I won't live past night 2 in this game. So I want to try to get some forward momentum going here.


These posts don't match up. You say you very rarely are a night kill, yet in the night post you have a feeling that you won't live past night 2.

Your reasoned that st.cronin and I aren't on the same team, so one of us is bad. Did you get that from..

Fouts votes Cronin
Cronin votes hoops (changed later to bullet)
Hoops votes bullet
?

As Lathum said, you are playing the helpful villager, but with a twist. You are providing names for people to go after. I am sure a good guy wouldn't be throwing names out there on night 1 with little evidence. I submit that either you are the Police Chief (nope), and you know who the STARS are, or you are working for the bad guys. More likely you are hoping that throwing hints out there might get people thinking you are the PC.

[saldana]

i dont know where alan is getting his fouts theory from, but as for right now, i am leaning toward fouts and cronin both being good guys, and hoops being some form of a bad guy....pretty sure lathum is also a good guy.


of course i could have no idea what the hell i am talking about, as well

[spleen1015]

Well, my idea for yesterday didn't work, it seems. It does help me narrow things down a bit, though. Let's see what happens after night actions.

[Alan T]

And finally,

Lest we all forget, Alan started the voting on bullet, and campaigned to have him lynched. Now he is creating a smokescreen for day 2, so we all forget the blood on his hands.

I have no problems having responsibility for sacrificing Bulletsponge.


But if you think I'm pushing for an endgame strategy on day 2, that is fairly bold. :)

Yep, the game started with so many bad guys, we can win if we just lynch fouts tommorrow! :)

I am actually really shocked that no one else has seen what I saw on this.

If no one else sees how either Fouts or St.Cronin has to be a bad guy, then well I am dissapointed in all of you.

[Alan T]

These posts don't match up. You say you very rarely are a night kill, yet in the night post you have a feeling that you won't live past night 2.

Your reasoned that st.cronin and I aren't on the same team, so one of us is bad. Did you get that from..

Fouts votes Cronin
Cronin votes hoops (changed later to bullet)
Hoops votes bullet
?

As Lathum said, you are playing the helpful villager, but with a twist. You are providing names for people to go after. I am sure a good guy wouldn't be throwing names out there on night 1 with little evidence. I submit that either you are the Police Chief (nope), and you know who the STARS are, or you are working for the bad guys. More likely you are hoping that throwing hints out there might get people thinking you are the PC.

I will come right out and say I am not the police chief. And I am pretty sure if you turn up a bad guy that I won't live past night 2 :)

[hoopsguy]

Alan, if I was thinking about going along with your Fouts/Cronin theory I would choose to flip the order around and remove Cronin from the chess board first. As I mentioned last night, I hope that we have more information than just the votes to work with come tomorrow. But if not, then:

1. Fouts voted for Cronin, Cronin voted for Bullet - advantage Fouts
2. Cronin initially voted for me - advantage Fouts

[Alan T]

You know, I feel like I am playing this game Blade style.. just without the typing in all capital bold letters and with a few more smilies :)

But seriously, take a step back, look at day 1 and you will see either Fouts or St.Cronin has to be a bad guy. Once you realize that, you then will see what the next step in that progression is and see how if Fouts is the bad guy St.Cronin and Hoops become pretty close to 100% trusted.

Its a big connect the dots game. Don't take my word for it, look through the posts, its right there in front of you. If you don't see it, go back and look again till you do.

Anyone saying Fouts or St.cronin both could be good guys either haven't looked hard enough or are also a bad guy trying to make a cover.

[Alan T]

Alan, if I was thinking about going along with your Fouts/Cronin theory I would choose to flip the order around and remove Cronin from the chess board first. As I mentioned last night, I hope that we have more information than just the votes to work with come tomorrow. But if not, then:

1. Fouts voted for Cronin, Cronin voted for Bullet - advantage Fouts
2. Cronin initially voted for me - advantage Fouts

I honestly don't know which of the two are the bad guy. I just know 1 of the 2 is. The reason I am picking Fouts first is because if he is the bad guy, it also clears you in my mind.

If St.Cronin ends up being the bad guy, it doesn't do anything to help clear you or not. So to me Fouts being the bad guy of the two is the more convienant route for me as it would then clear 2 people. However I realize that could be wishful thinking. It might just be St.Cronin who is bad which then clears no one.

I have a feeling mid-day I might be able to figure out which of the two is bad based on how people vote.. but thats a gamble.

All i know is either St.Cronin or Fouts is bad

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I assume both being bad falls under the 99.9%?

I do not have the same level of certainty on both not being good, although I think it is pretty likely both are not good. And I've read the sequence of posts you are referring to a couple of times as I was pretty heavily involved in them.

If Fouts is a bad guy all that would imply is that Cronin and I are not on his team, not that we are STARS. So while I'm happy to find my way onto trusted lists, I would prefer that it is based on solid conclusions. I don't think that either Cronin or I would deserve to be 100% trusted in this scenario. Just a check mark in the good book, that you can largely eliminate us from one bad team.

If Cronin is bad, then you can move a step closer to accepting my claims. But I don't know if it says anything about Fouts one way or the other. I would prefer Cronin as a target over Fouts for the reasons listed in Post #406.

[Alan T]

Alan, I assume both being bad falls under the 99.9%?

I do not have the same level of certainty on both not being good, although I think it is pretty likely both are not good. And I've read the sequence of posts you are referring to a couple of times as I was pretty heavily involved in them.

If Fouts is a bad guy all that would imply is that Cronin and I are not on his team, not that we are STARS. So while I'm happy to find my way onto trusted lists, I would prefer that it is based on solid conclusions. I don't think that either Cronin or I would deserve to be 100% trusted in this scenario. Just a check mark in the good book, that you can largely eliminate us from one bad team.

If Cronin is bad, then you can move a step closer to accepting my claims. But I don't know if it says anything about Fouts one way or the other. I would prefer Cronin as a target over Fouts for the reasons listed in Post #406.

I am 99.9% sure that if Fouts is bad, you and cronin are good.

If Cronin is bad, it doesn't tell me anything about you or Fouts. (You both could be good or bad)

So yes, both could be bad, but I can gurantuee you that at least 1 of the 2 are bad. The reason I want to go fouts today is like i said, its more convienant for me. It will tell me more about you and Cronin from his allegiance.

[Alan T]

And hoops, to connect the dots, read more than just that sequence of posts. The posts first thing in the morning are important where the votes took place, then posts mid-day are important, and then the final vote total is important.

It truly is right there for you to see. :)

[Alan T]

Off to work. I'll be back around night action deadline time. Can't wait to see what happens.

[LoneStarGirl]

Haha did bullet really not know he was playing? Because i wouldn't doubt it. Thats funny. And Alant, I really would have to disagree taht either cronin or fouts has to be a bad guy. Why? Because i think you just pulled that out of your ass... If NTN would have voted for Glen would that mean either Glen or Cronin would have to be a wolf? I think not

[KWhit]

I don't see the Fouts / St Cronin thing, but I haven't looked closely at their posts yet.

Hopefully, I'll have some time to pour over them later today.

[LoneStarGirl]

You know whats funny, I just went through the first page and Bullet never said he wanted to play.... he just said BRAINS.... oh well, no harm no foul.

I think for the first time in WW history we lynched somebody on the first day without them getting pissed.

[hoopsguy]

Anyone else find it ironic that the guy who has potential for a double vote in the game is the guy who doesn't know he is playing and thus doesn't post?

[Alan T]

Haha did bullet really not know he was playing? Because i wouldn't doubt it. Thats funny. And Alant, I really would have to disagree taht either cronin or fouts has to be a bad guy. Why? Because i think you just pulled that out of your ass... If NTN would have voted for Glen would that mean either Glen or Cronin would have to be a wolf? I think not

Nope, not pulling anything out of my ass. I guarantee you one of the two is a bad guy.

[Alan T]

You know whats funny, I just went through the first page and Bullet never said he wanted to play.... he just said BRAINS.... oh well, no harm no foul.

I think for the first time in WW history we lynched somebody on the first day without them getting pissed.

Yep, thats why I don't feel bad about pushing for his death. Its funny that Fouts is saying that I want to create a smokescreen for pushing people to vote bulletsponge, but in fact, I'll do the opposite.. I'll say even after the fact I take full credit for it.

1) Hoopsguy might be bad, I don't know yet.. but day 1, I would rather have a dead STARS player that isn't going to contribute anything to the game than Hoopsguy dead good or bad. Someone like Hoops I would rather wait till I have a better feel before I go after.

2) It provided us enough information to make an -Educated- Day 2 vote, which I am trying to present today.

So nope, I'm perfectly fine with having to lose one of our team on day 1, especially since he wasn't going to contribute anything anyways. (not even realizing he was in the game.)

[st.cronin]

Alan if you're not willing to now, then after morning I think you should come right out with your theory. I would prefer to know why I'm voting for somebody, rather than just trusting somebody I have no reason to trust.

[st.cronin]

dola

In fact, it is now past deadline ... so you may want to publish your theory before night results, in case you are not able to.

[Alan T]

Well, I have no idea if I am going to get whacked tonight or not. Since its past deadline now I can say that I was bluffing about not being afraid that I would get night 1 in a way hoping they would be afraid to come after me.

Don't know if they caught my bluff or not, so I will say now that its deadline in case I do die, I will reel everything back in.

I guess a little bit of me is dissapointed that no one else has picked up on this. It makes me have a small fear that some of the people who I think most of in WW games are all bad guys and did pick up on it, just hiding the fact to try to save teammates.

I'm going to reel myself back in a little bit now so I'm a little less Blade-gung-ho-crazy-mode and a bit more analytical now. Basically here is the deal. Think about this:

-The police chief won't vote for a good guy
-Bulletsponge was a good guy
-The police chief would not have voted for Bulletsponge
-The police chief voted for someone other than Bulletsponge
-Only St.Cronin and Fouts received votes besides Bulletsponge yesterday
-The police Chief voted for Either St.Cronin or Fouts
-Either St.Cronin or Fouts is bad.

Thats how I drew the first half of my dots together. Now that I have done that, I am sure most of you can put together the last half. Hope this is far more analytical and little less off the wall for you all.

Like I said I am a bit dissapointed that no one else put this together

[Alan T]

dola, and its a bad thing too because now i am highly suspicious of some of the better players in the game.. and I dont want that to cloud my vision going forward in future days here. I just can't help but think you all aren't on my team anymore.

[spleen1015]

Well, I have no idea if I am going to get whacked tonight or not. Since its past deadline now I can say that I was bluffing about not being afraid that I would get night 1 in a way hoping they would be afraid to come after me.

Don't know if they caught my bluff or not, so I will say now that its deadline in case I do die, I will reel everything back in.

I guess a little bit of me is dissapointed that no one else has picked up on this. It makes me have a small fear that some of the people who I think most of in WW games are all bad guys and did pick up on it, just hiding the fact to try to save teammates.

I'm going to reel myself back in a little bit now so I'm a little less Blade-gung-ho-crazy-mode and a bit more analytical now. Basically here is the deal. Think about this:

-The police chief won't vote for a good guy
-Bulletsponge was a good guy
-The police chief would not have voted for Bulletsponge
-The police chief voted for someone other than Bulletsponge
-Only St.Cronin and Fouts received votes besides Bulletsponge yesterday
-The police Chief voted for Either St.Cronin or Fouts
-Either St.Cronin or Fouts is bad.

Thats how I drew the first half of my dots together. Now that I have done that, I am sure most of you can put together the last half. Hope this is far more analytical and little less off the wall for you all.

Like I said I am a bit dissapointed that no one else put this together

It would have been a good idea to keep this to yourself, IMO.

I also think it is entirely possible that the Police Chief is one of the folks who voted late for either bullet or cronin. There was a point where the vote was 8-5, I believe. So, there were 4 votes after this that could have potentially been the Police Chief. 3 of those votes were for bullet. It doesn't seem too crazy to me for the Police Chief to be one of the late votes on bullet.

I don't think your theory is as solid as you think.

[st.cronin]

It would have been a good idea to keep this to yourself, IMO.

I also think it is entirely possible that the Police Chief is one of the folks who voted late for either bullet or cronin. There was a point where the vote was 8-5, I believe. So, there were 4 votes after this that could have potentially been the Police Chief. 3 of those votes were for bullet. It doesn't seem too crazy to me for the Police Chief to be one of the late votes on bullet.

I don't think your theory is as solid as you think.

I agree. Who knows what the police chief will actually do, too. I've been in some games where roled players just did some completely goofy things. Heck, look at AT's game, where succesive villager sherrifs made poor play after poor play.

I think it's a long shot, and I'm going to wait to see what night brings before I place my vote.

[Alan T]

It would have been a good idea to keep this to yourself, IMO.

I also think it is entirely possible that the Police Chief is one of the folks who voted late for either bullet or cronin. There was a point where the vote was 8-5, I believe. So, there were 4 votes after this that could have potentially been the Police Chief. 3 of those votes were for bullet. It doesn't seem too crazy to me for the Police Chief to be one of the late votes on bullet.

I don't think your theory is as solid as you think.

If the police chief did that, then he is really killing his team. Like has been said by multiple people, multiple times the chief helps the team the most in death. its just key to try to stay alive 3-4 days to give data for people to go on.

I still say I'm not the only one who saw this. I am pretty sure there are at least some bad guys who saw this and were playing dumb. Thats why my suspicion level of a few people have climbed today.

[Chubby]

Results and PMs on their way

[st.cronin]

If the police chief did that, then he is really killing his team. Like has been said by multiple people, multiple times the chief helps the team the most in death. its just key to try to stay alive 3-4 days to give data for people to go on.

I still say I'm not the only one who saw this. I am pretty sure there are at least some bad guys who saw this and were playing dumb. Thats why my suspicion level of a few people have climbed today.

I still don't understand, though - what does hoops have to do with that theory?

[Alan T]

I still don't understand, though - what does hoops have to do with that theory?

That part I won't talk about. We can just go from point A to B right now and see where that goes.

[spleen1015]

If the police chief did that, then he is really killing his team. Like has been said by multiple people, multiple times the chief helps the team the most in death. its just key to try to stay alive 3-4 days to give data for people to go on.

I still say I'm not the only one who saw this. I am pretty sure there are at least some bad guys who saw this and were playing dumb. Thats why my suspicion level of a few people have climbed today.

Bullet has a 3 vote advantage. I think it was safe to say that he was going to be the one that would be lynched. I think it is the safe play by the chief to vote for him at this point.

What your theory has done is shoot holes in my strategy. So, know I don't know what I want to do today. :(

[Alan T]

Bullet has a 3 vote advantage. I think it was safe to say that he was going to be the one that would be lynched. I think it is the safe play by the chief to vote for him at this point.

What your theory has done is shoot holes in my strategy. So, know I don't know what I want to do today. :(

A police chief who votes for his own team mates is a rather pointless and counter-productive role.

[Lathum]

Alan, I think your theory has some merit but I'm not sold on it. THe police chief role almost has to be played like a wolf role in a normal game. Very often early on a wolf will vote for another wolf to buy himself leverage later in games. I think it's very possible the same thing could happen here otherwise the zombies/umbrella would be able to narrow the field pretty early.

A savy police cheif would realize that at some point a STARS member is gonna be executed so why not "hide in the open" Especially if it's a foregone conclusion it was gonna come down to 2 players who are probably on the same side like yeaterday. Why would the chief put himself in the open like that, IMO it would be a stupid play.

[Lathum]

A police chief who votes for his own team mates is a rather pointless and counter-productive role.

not if both choices are his teammates. It would look alot more suspiscous to try and deflect people another direction on day one. I think the chief would have to "roll with the punches"

[Chubby]

As day breaks the citizens of Raccoon City converge on the town square to see what happened over night. Was there any attacks? Was everyone ok?

A quick head count reveals that they are missing someone. Who is it?

Everyone looks around but no one can seem to find KWhit. The group heads to KWhit's house to find him in his bed dead, with bite marks all over his head and what's left of his brains oozing out. A further inspection of the house and body reveals little besides a gun and a holster.

Day 2 Ends Thursday at 11pm EST

[Lathum]

dole- according to the records NTN was the only one who voted other then St.Cronin or bullet so if St. Cronin is good as well does that mean NTN is the chief. Good job putting that target on him...

[BrianD]

Alan, I think you should have kept your theory to yourself for a while at least. Depending on how things go, we could have the chief identified today. That is way too early. As far as waiting to see who else figured it out, I don't think you gave people enough time. I had gone through the same thought process as you and came up with the same idea (aside from some of your trust ideas) on the chief, but now I can't proove it. I personally would have let your idea float for a while and see which of the two accused fought harder to discredit you.

[Alan T]

dole- according to the records NTN was the only one who voted other then St.Cronin or bullet so if St. Cronin is good as well does that mean NTN is the chief. Good job putting that target on him...

You are one of the people who I am pretty sure would have caught this. I'm guessing right now you are a bad guy just based on your behavior. Prove me wrong.

[Alan T]

Alan, I think you should have kept your theory to yourself for a while at least. Depending on how things go, we could have the chief identified today. That is way too early. As far as waiting to see who else figured it out, I don't think you gave people enough time. I had gone through the same thought process as you and came up with the same idea (aside from some of your trust ideas) on the chief, but now I can't proove it. I personally would have let your idea float for a while and see which of the two accused fought harder to discredit you.

The night kill I think shows us that the bad guys knew the same thing I did. If you think they aren't going through and systematically trying to kill off those people, then you are fooling yourself.

There are alot of smart people in this game, I know some of you figured this out on your own.

[st.cronin]

The night kill I think shows us that the bad guys knew the same thing I did. If you think they aren't going through and systematically trying to kill off those people, then you are fooling yourself.

There are alot of smart people in this game, I know some of you figured this out on your own.

How?

KWhit voted first for BrianD, then for me. Do you think the bad guys thought he was the police chief? That would make me and BrianD bad, if it were true.

Or what do you think their strategy was?

[Alan T]

How?

KWhit voted first for BrianD, then for me. Do you think the bad guys thought he was the police chief? That would make me and BrianD bad, if it were true.

Or what do you think their strategy was?

Sure, I'm pretty sure many players here are smart enough to not have needed me to connect the dots for them. They knew before I even said anything that most likely they had a pool of people who likely were the police chief. I'm pretty sure they chose from that pool someone who is an experienced player who is a good player and not on their team.

I am guessing they thought there was a possibility Kwhit was the chief and tried to off him.

[BrianD]

The night kill I think shows us that the bad guys knew the same thing I did. If you think they aren't going through and systematically trying to kill off those people, then you are fooling yourself.

There are alot of smart people in this game, I know some of you figured this out on your own.

There are a lot of smart people in the game, and the bad guys probably did know the same thing you did. I was just suggesting that by letting the info come out during the day, you would have had a chance to figure out where people stood by how they argued against you.

[st.cronin]

Sure, I'm pretty sure many players here are smart enough to not have needed me to connect the dots for them. They knew before I even said anything that most likely they had a pool of people who likely were the police chief. I'm pretty sure they chose from that pool someone who is an experienced player who is a good player and not on their team.

I am guessing they thought there was a possibility Kwhit was the chief and tried to off him.

Then you must think I'm a zombie.

[Lathum]

You are one of the people who I am pretty sure would have caught this. I'm guessing right now you are a bad guy just based on your behavior. Prove me wrong.

What are you talking about? You'r theory basicly came right out and said it and FWIW if I was a bad guy I would keep my mouth shutly what you have accomplished is

1. Trying to get us to lynch fouts or St. Cronin, then when one of them is good lynch the other. Wasting 2 days.

2. Try and call me out because I blew holes in your theory

3. I can GUARENTEE !!!! at some point today you were going to say something like " I think the bodyguard has no choice but to protect NTN tonight" thus giving the zombies an uncontested shot.

All in all that kind of screws things up for a few days while the zombies run amuck.

[Alan T]

Then you must think I'm a zombie.

I've already said that I feel pretty confident either you or Fouts are a bad guy.. and possibly both are.

[Alan T]

What are you talking about? You'r theory basicly came right out and said it and FWIW if I was a bad guy I would keep my mouth shutly what you have accomplished is

1. Trying to get us to lynch fouts or St. Cronin, then when one of them is good lynch the other. Wasting 2 days.

2. Try and call me out because I blew holes in your theory

3. I can GUARENTEE !!!! at some point today you were going to say something like " I think the bodyguard has no choice but to protect NTN tonight" thus giving the zombies an uncontested shot.

All in all that kind of screws things up for a few days while the zombies run amuck.

Would you rather us vote for you today instead of St.cronin or Fouts? I don't see you giving us anyone else better to go on. Right now intentional or not, you look like you are trying to protect a team mate really strongly.

[Alan T]

After thinking things over, i think the best move today is

Vote St.Cronin

So I'll get this show started.

[st.cronin]

ugh

You're wrong, Alan.

[st.cronin]

I should seriously adopt the utr strategy when given a villager role.

[Alan T]

I should seriously adopt the utr strategy when given a villager role.

I am not voting you because you gave ideas yesterday. In fact I gave you many chances to elaborate and you ignored most of those points, either disappearing from the thread or just not responding to the questions.

I've been pretty clear on why I'm voting you. The only question in my head was if I was going to vote you or Fouts

[Alan T]

dola, and I'm not convinced I'll stay on you. I might switch to Fouts still. I'm not sure which is the better path to play out today.

[Chubby]

I have to work today 1pm - 1030pm EST just so everyone knows (I get several of these shifts which is why the day deadline is set at 11pm EST)

[st.cronin]

I am not voting you because you gave ideas yesterday. In fact I gave you many chances to elaborate and you ignored most of those points, either disappearing from the thread or just not responding to the questions.

I've been pretty clear on why I'm voting you. The only question in my head was if I was going to vote you or Fouts

No, you're voting me because I had votes yesterday. And why did I have votes yesterday? hmmmmm

And you still haven't explained about hoops.

[Lathum]

I've seen this game from AlanT before and I don't trust him one bit. My vote was for St.Cronin yesterday and I am sticking with it today but IF he is lynched AND he comes up good I am all over AlanT tomorrow.

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[Lathum]

dola- ntn, care to explain your vote.

[st.cronin]

vote Lathum

I'm fairly comfortable with this vote. I know he's not the police chief, so there's the better than decent chance that he's either Umbrella or zombie.

I imagine there will be some information coming out about last night at some point.

[Alan T]

Thinking things through more, I now realize that if Fouts is bad, it doesn't necessarily mean St.Cronin and hoops are good. I originally was going to vote for Fouts to set up that circle of trust, but realizing later, that there are holes in that.

I can't find any really good ties that one's being bad clears the other, so its very possible both are bad. I'm just pretty sure at least one is.

[LoneStarGirl]

Alan I dont believe your theory at all. What if both cronin and fouts are good and the police cheif had no choice but to vote for one of the three? Would he vote for bullet because he had the most votes? Or what if he just enney meeny miny moed to get bullet because he didn't want to cast a vote onto somebody who had no votes because that would put suspicion on him...

[Mr. Wednesday]

I disagree somewhat with Alan's thesis for how the chief would have played yesterday. I think there's an optimum play for two STARS set against one another that he hasn't stated.

[LoneStarGirl]

I think NTN just pulled Fout's name out of his ass and now we are suspicious about him with no real proof

[Lathum]

off to work now. MY vote is subject to change if any night info comes out.

[Alan T]

Alan I dont believe your theory at all. What if both cronin and fouts are good and the police cheif had no choice but to vote for one of the three? Would he vote for bullet because he had the most votes? Or what if he just enney meeny miny moed to get bullet because he didn't want to cast a vote onto somebody who had no votes because that would put suspicion on him...

Well for everyone who's saying that, give me a better candidate than Fouts or St. Cronin.

Right now it seems pretty obvious that Lathum is trying to protect Fouts to me. And it seems the pretty much best move they could have made is to try to help us gain clues along the way.

Usually day 2 is all about the well Player X from day 1 who was lynched was good, so now lets look at players A, B, C, D , E and F to see who it is and it gets us no where.

I'm giving us a player based on percentages. Just think about what I am saying a little bit...

Based on -nothing- else I think we have an approximate 43-47% chance of hitting a bad guy. Almost 50/50 based on nothing more than flipping a coin. Now I'm trying to narrow that down using reasonable deductive reasoning and give us a narrowed selection to look at based on what is a logical progression.

just for arguement sake, even if I am completely and utterly and entirely wrong.. we still have almost a 50/50 shot of being right choosing anyone right now.

[KWhit]

Well that was quick. Y'all have fun.

[spleen1015]

Well for everyone who's saying that, give me a better candidate than Fouts or St. Cronin.

For starters, you.

[Lathum]

ok, now i am really off, but alan, c'mon. why would i attempt to protect fouts at this point? he has had virtually no heat except from you and no one has even voted for him. gimme some credit...

[Alan T]

I disagree somewhat with Alan's thesis for how the chief would have played yesterday. I think there's an optimum play for two STARS set against one another that he hasn't stated.

There is alot about my thesis that I haven't stated yet because its stuff that I don't necessarily think the bad guys would have caught yet.

The only things I have talked about today are things that are right out in the open and I would be very suprised to see them not have followed the same line of thinking already. So my bringing it out into the open only helps the good guys by making sure everyone is aware of it and not just the bad guys when determining who to vote for today.

I can think of all kinds of scenerios possibly still in play that I am not discussing. But based on probability, I think the best play is St.Cronin. Based on gut feel, I think the best vote is Fouts. Based on strategic maneuvering, I think the best vote is Fouts. I just currently am not sure which of the two I will end up going with at the end of the day.

[Alan T]

For starters, you.

Then vote for me and give your reasons why you are voting for me. Thats what this game is about :) Its a pretty foolish move I think and its not looking at this vote mathematically to vote for me, but hey its your vote to do with as you wish so if you think I'm honestly the day's best choice go with your gut :)

[Tyrith]

Alan is venturing into the same zone cronin was in yesterday, where he's tossing out ideas that are interesting but not necessarily correct...I'm very much conflicted at this point. In the next day or two we're gonna have to kill one of them just to figure out where we stand in this whole game, I think, unless we start getting some more evidence.

[Alan T]

Alan is venturing into the same zone cronin was in yesterday, where he's tossing out ideas that are interesting but not necessarily correct...I'm very much conflicted at this point. In the next day or two we're gonna have to kill one of them just to figure out where we stand in this whole game, I think, unless we start getting some more evidence.

You have to wait till tommorrow to lynch me. Day 3 is Alan T lynch day. So for today, try to choose from one of the other 15 players to choose! :)

[hoopsguy]

vote Lathum

I'm fairly comfortable with this vote. I know he's not the police chief, so there's the better than decent chance that he's either Umbrella or zombie.

I imagine there will be some information coming out about last night at some point.

Yesterday you followed him on a vote with the supposition that he was the police chief. So what has changed? I knew he wasn't the Chief yesterday when he voted for me early, but how do you now have this info?

Also, Lathum making the argument that he will follow on Cronin today, but then be all over Alan T tomorrow has the sound of someone who may be on the same team as Fouts and want to buy a couple of days here with people moving in directions other than towards him and/or Fouts.

[spleen1015]

Then vote for me and give your reasons why you are voting for me. Thats what this game is about :) Its a pretty foolish move I think and its not looking at this vote mathematically to vote for me, but hey its your vote to do with as you wish so if you think I'm honestly the day's best choice go with your gut :)

I learned in your game that things are never as they seem. I want to vote for you based on the fact that I thik your theory is bunk. You're pushing for it a great deal and that is a red flag for me. I'm not going to let that influence how I vote though. I am going to wait on that.

I decided on a strategy to follow in the early game yesterday and I am going to stick to it for now. It didn't work out with bullet being a good guy, but it narrows down my choices for today. I just need to see how things develop today.

[Alan T]

Yesterday you followed him on a vote with the supposition that he was the police chief. So what has changed? I knew he wasn't the Chief yesterday when he voted for me early, but how do you now have this info?

Also, Lathum making the argument that he will follow on Cronin today, but then be all over Alan T tomorrow has the sound of someone who may be on the same team as Fouts and want to buy a couple of days here with people moving in directions other than towards him and/or Fouts.

That was my reaction too about Lathum which I commented on. His response is i have to give him more credit than that. :)

[Tyrith]

Cronin lynch doesn't really excite me that much. An easy lynch with no evidence, against a vet? I think cronin was just being cronin.

Alan's analysis for the chief's actions day one is flawed because I can definately see the chief dumping his vote if it was STARS v. STARS, which I'm starting to think is pretty likely.

That leaves Alan. Alan lynch doesn't thrill me either, but I certainly see him being bad. For now, I'm just gonna sit here.

[Alan T]

I learned in your game that things are never as they seem. I want to vote for you based on the fact that I thik your theory is bunk. You're pushing for it a great deal and that is a red flag for me. I'm not going to let that influence how I vote though. I am going to wait on that.

I decided on a strategy to follow in the early game yesterday and I am going to stick to it for now. It didn't work out with bullet being a good guy, but it narrows down my choices for today. I just need to see how things develop today.

Well for whatever its worth, my initial strategy was going to be vote for the less contributing players (not necessarily dictated by post count, but moreso based on what they brought to the table to defend their points to bring up new points etc.. or if they just slid by UtR). I was going to just vote for each UtR person until some kind of evidence showed up one way or another.

But decided to change it last night based on day 1.

[Alan T]

Next game I'm going to just do one post every day (my vote) and day 6 when people call me out for it, I'll use the schmidty gambit

[Alan T]

What I think would be funny is if between Fouts and St.Cronin one is a zombie and one is umbrella and both sides are hemming and hawing about how to play it. And join up as a common goal to just eliminate me instead to save their boys.

[Tyrith]

Sigh, right now is that if we kill fouts/cronin today it doesn't really tell us anything about Alan directly because of the nature of his theory. Somehow we have to start unraveling these psuedo-alliances today, but I really don't know where to start pulling the thread.

[path12]

I think NTN just pulled Fout's name out of his ass and now we are suspicious about him with no real proof

LSG, I don't think anyone has suspicions about NTN being bad at this point, I think some of us are just a little frustrated that the police chief may have been outed.

Lathum & cronin, I'm curious why, if you're so convinced that Alan is wrong, why your votes didn't go on him?

I have to get a couple things done this morning, but will also go back through the day 1 posts and take a look for myself before I throw out any votes.

[Alan T]

How?

KWhit voted first for BrianD, then for me. Do you think the bad guys thought he was the police chief? That would make me and BrianD bad, if it were true.

Or what do you think their strategy was?

Thinking more about this, I wonder if one of the following is true:

1) The bad guys killed kwhit knowing both St.Cronin and BrianD were bad and thinking it highly possible that Kwhit could have been the chief.

2) BrianD not being on their team, the bad guys figure that we'll figure out the same thing they know about the Chief and this would draw suspicion on BrianD.

[hoopsguy]

Alan, I've got another theory on what the Chief did yesterday but I have zero desire to discuss it in public at this time as it could draw unwanted attention.

Nothing at all interesting here in terms of night results and based on the check-in posts so far I haven't heard anything to help us with our play today other than yesterday's votes and player interaction.

I'm very interested in what Cronin's answer is to the question I asked.

[hoopsguy]

Chubby, are we going to get role information on death or is it strictly faction? Based on my reading of the rules it would suggest roles but the results of the first two kills just coming up STARS leads me to ask the question.

[Alan T]

LSG, I don't think anyone has suspicions about NTN being bad at this point, I think some of us are just a little frustrated that the police chief may have been outed.

Lathum & cronin, I'm curious why, if you're so convinced that Alan is wrong, why your votes didn't go on him?

I have to get a couple things done this morning, but will also go back through the day 1 posts and take a look for myself before I throw out any votes.

Looking through all of this the first mistake I made last night was thinking it very likely Ntn was the chief. but after reading through all of the posts from about 10 different people yesterday I realized this isn't true.

Its possible ntn is the chief, but I highly doubt it. I think people are overthinking a bit on the whole "oh my goodness you're going to out the chief" aspect of this. Yes my post probably helped narrow down 7 likely choices for him.. but if you think the bad guys hadn't already done that themselves you're probably fooling yourself right now.

I'm pretty sure early bad game strategy involves:

1) Finding someone to convert
2) Figuring out who important roles are (Chief, bodyguard, seers, etc)

[Alan T]

Alan, I've got another theory on what the Chief did yesterday but I have zero desire to discuss it in public at this time as it could draw unwanted attention.

Nothing at all interesting here in terms of night results and based on the check-in posts so far I haven't heard anything to help us with our play today other than yesterday's votes and player interaction.

I'm very interested in what Cronin's answer is to the question I asked.

Yeah I am fine with not discussing all aspects of the Chief play. I am definitly holding some things close to my vest.

I am finding various people's reactions quite interesting today though so far.

[BrianD]

Thinking more about this, I wonder if one of the following is true:

1) The bad guys killed kwhit knowing both St.Cronin and BrianD were bad and thinking it highly possible that Kwhit could have been the chief.

2) BrianD not being on their team, the bad guys figure that we'll figure out the same thing they know about the Chief and this would draw suspicion on BrianD.

I'm obviously looking at the second option here. I think the zombies probably took out KWhit since they knew this would put suspicion on me...which is good for them.

I'm really curious about the Ntndeacon vote. Being the only lone vote seems odd given the rules that we have. I could see where he might be trying to tell us something, but it also makes him way too visible.

[Alan T]

Ok once again, you all are reading way too much into the ntndeacon vote.

At the time, the voting was:

(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)

So it wasn't some throw away vote on a third person to give some secret clue.

It made the Hoops 2, cronin 1, Bullet 1, Fouts 1.

[hoopsguy]

KWhit - initially votes BrianD, moves it to Cronin
Bullet - no post, no vote, nothing to work with

Possible, if there are not role reveals on death, that KWhit was the Police Chief.

Suspects at the moment for me:
Lathum - early day 1 vote for me, vote ended on Bullet, concern about his positioning today
Cronin - early day 1 vote for me, vote ended on Bullet, final vote by KWhit
Fouts - drew vote from NTN, supports Alan's theory on Chief actions
BrianD - initial vote from KWhit, vote ended on Bullet

I have noted that I'm suspicious of AlanT in a pretty big way, but I'm not ready to gun for him quite yet mainly because there is not any trail for him like there are for the four above players.

[BrianD]

Ok once again, you all are reading way too much into the ntndeacon vote.

At the time, the voting was:

(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)

So it wasn't some throw away vote on a third person to give some secret clue.

It made the Hoops 2, cronin 1, Bullet 1, Fouts 1.

It is important to look at the circumstances of the vote, but it is also worth looking at what happened after the vote. Why did that vote not change? Was Ntn not around, or was there a reason he didn't want to move to the other two?

[Tyrith]

KWhit - initially votes BrianD, moves it to Cronin
Bullet - no post, no vote, nothing to work with

Possible, if there are not role reveals on death, that KWhit was the Police Chief.



Rules posts says that there are role reveals on death.

[hoopsguy]

Answers from Cronin and Chubby will help me with assessing how seriously to look at these four players.

- if there are complete role reveals on death then BrianD is off the hook for today
- Cronin's answer will definitely impact my thoughts on his fitness level for lynching

[Chubby]

Chubby, are we going to get role information on death or is it strictly faction? Based on my reading of the rules it would suggest roles but the results of the first two kills just coming up STARS leads me to ask the question.

The answer to this question is in the rules :)

[Alan T]

It is important to look at the circumstances of the vote, but it is also worth looking at what happened after the vote. Why did that vote not change? Was Ntn not around, or was there a reason he didn't want to move to the other two?

Ntn's last post of the day before the deadline was #217. At that time it was Hoops with 2 votes and I think 4 different people with 1 vote (including yourself).

The run on St.Cronin actually only started after you received a vote from Kwhit.

I said many things yesterday were interesting to me. I've drilled down on some, but not on others. Like I said there are a few things that makes you suspicious in my eyes, but I know it could very easily be a frame job too.

[Glengoyne]

The answer to this question is in the rules :)


Chub is obviously a Zombie sympathizer.

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, that is how I read it as well. I'm just asking Chubby to confirm that we have two vanilla STARS as the first two dead people.

[Tyrith]

I don't see what the problem was then, personally. I think there were 11 (11-5-3) STARS at the start; that means we probably have five vanillas. Getting two isn't terribly likely but not insane or anything.

[Alan T]

Tyrith, that is how I read it as well. I'm just asking Chubby to confirm that we have two vanilla STARS as the first two dead people.

from the way he responded I think thats what I am assuming. They both were vanilla stars roles.

Which helps BrianD's case some, but I don't really have him in mind as a target for today anyways. Just was talking about what I felt about him since the question was asked.

[BrianD]

Ntn's last post of the day before the deadline was #217. At that time it was Hoops with 2 votes and I think 4 different people with 1 vote (including yourself).

The run on St.Cronin actually only started after you received a vote from Kwhit.

I said many things yesterday were interesting to me. I've drilled down on some, but not on others. Like I said there are a few things that makes you suspicious in my eyes, but I know it could very easily be a frame job too.

If that is the case (I haven't gone back to check), it would seem like NTN's vote may have just been random and he never got back to do anything else with it. Like I said, it would put a lot of attention on him if he was out there alone knowingly, but it was worth looking at.

I can understand your suspicion of me. I think it was smart of the bad guys to see the opening created by KWhit and pile on to enhance the suspicion.

[hoopsguy]

OK, then drop BrianD for today and return to Lathum, Cronin, and Fouts as the people I would be looking at the hardest.

I'll probably hold off on a vote until Fouts arrives this afternoon - he is usually a mid-afternoon arrival in WW games.

Alan, if you want to talk through some scenarios I'm game for the next hour or so.

[hoopsguy]

Going from memory, NTN was back viewing the thread yesterday before the deadline. He had the opportunity to move his vote to one of the leading vote-getters but he did not opt to do so.

[Glengoyne]

So we know that Kwhit voted for Cronin and BrianD. Does that give us anything to go on? Do wolves go for people who are outright mentioning them in conversation? That seems to lead too much of a trail for us to follow, but I think fouts was going after a wolf when he got killed in Tombstone.

I'm glad Alan has reanalyzed his position, because I'm pretty confident that if I were the chief I would pile on to someone to hide my vote. A vote for a lynched player is simply cover at that point. It is a missed opportunity to "out" someone, but I think it is more important for the chief to not paint a target on his back and stay in the game.

I'll be in and out of contact today to take a closer look at the likely suspects, but right now, I don't feel like I have more than an inkling of which way to go.

[Tyrith]

I don't think we can take anything out of KWhit's vote. He thought Brian was slightly suspicious because of a small thing he said, then he jumped back into our planned 2 man race. Seems like a perfectly normal I-don't-know-jack villager play D1.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Just for reference... and this should answer hoopsguy's question about how st.cronin claims to know that Lathum isn't the chief.

Thats what I have also. Here is the voting path of the day:

(112) Lathum votes Hoopsguy (1)
(120) Fouts votes St.cronin (1)
(125) st.cronin votes hoopsguy (2)
(180) Alan votes Bulletsponge (1)
(184) Ntndeacon votes fouts (1)
(190) Kwhit votes BrianD (1)
(235) Anxiety votes St.Cronin (2)
(246) Lathum UNVOTES Hoopsguy (1) ***
(246) Lathum votes St.cronin (3)
(253) Hoopsguy votes Bulletsponge (2)
(257) spleen votes bulletsponge (3)
(273) Tyrith votes Bulletsponge (4)
(276) Sndvls votes Bulletsponge (5)
(278) Kwhit UNVOTES BrianD (0) ***
(278) Kwhit votes Stcronin (4)
(279) Path votes Stcronin (5)
(281) BrianD votes Bulletsponge (6)
(283) Saldana votes Bulletsponge (7)
(286) Mr. Wednesday votes Bulletsponge (8)
(290) Lonestargirl votes St.cronin (6)
(308) Glengoyne votes Bulletsponge (9)
(313) Chief Rum votes Lathum (1)
(316) St.Cronin UNVOTES Hoopsguy (0) ***
(316) St.cronin votes Bulletsponge (10)
(318) Chief Rum UNVOTES Lathum (0) ***
(343) Chief Rum votes Bulletsponge (11)

[Alan T]

OK, then drop BrianD for today and return to Lathum, Cronin, and Fouts as the people I would be looking at the hardest.

I'll probably hold off on a vote until Fouts arrives this afternoon - he is usually a mid-afternoon arrival in WW games.

Alan, if you want to talk through some scenarios I'm game for the next hour or so.

Im pretty open to talking through stuff while Im here at work. So far I feel I've done alot of the talking and everyone else is either bashing my ideas or just waiting to see more without giving much in the way of thoughts themselves.

I'm really interested in hearing what others have to say other than the typical "He just feels like he is playing as a wolf this game" which doesnt do much for conversations