Invasion of Ukraine

[Edward64]

This is prob all factored in already. I do wonder how much China owns in Russian government bonds?

I thinking the economic MAD version is US defaults on all our bonds for US debt ($23T) that have been bought up by China. Japan owns about 17% of US debt, China 14%, UK 8%, Ireland & Luxembourg both at 4% (WTF?)

Who Owns US Debt? Top 5 Countries and How Much They Hold (https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/090616/5-countries-own-most-us-debt.asp)

Debt deadline and central bank hikes loom in Russia | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/debt-deadline-central-bank-hikes-loom-russia-2022-03-11/)
Wednesday could mark another low. The government is due to pay $117 million on two of its dollar-denominated bonds. But it has been signalling it will not, or if its does it will be in roubles, tantamount to a default. read more

Technically it has a 30-day grace period, but that is a minor point. If it happens it would represent its first international default since the Bolshevik revolution over a century ago.

"Default is quite imminent," said Roberto Sifon a top analyst at S&P Global which has just hit Russia with the world's biggest ever sovereign credit rating downgrade. read more

[Edward64]

Remember when everyone was afraid that the UN would occupy the USA?

HAHA, good times.

The blue helmets. Never feasible or at least militarily.

The Russian/Cuban invasion per Red Dawn is looking pretty weak now also.

The NK invasion per Red Dawn 2 was always ridiculous.

I think the more likely scenario is a release of a T-virus or whatever from China that causes a pandemic :)

[Edward64]

India and Pakistan want no part of this, but are content to let China lead Putin. According to Zelensky, Bennett (Israel's PM) just told him to surrender to Russia - I don't think Israel would get involved, either. The big question is whether NATO would stand firm, and I don't think that's a given if nuclear weapons are involved. Many NATO countries, certainly, but France, Italy, Germany? I doubt it.

If don't get why Israel would tell Zelenskyy to surrender in this war.

Russia will step up this barbaric attack, because that's the only way they "win" their game. No matter what our government is saying now, we won't cross Russia's stated line in the sand because we don't want to find out what we already know about NATO.

I do think there is a distinction between tactical nukes on the battlefield vs ICBM type nukes. If the latter, all bets are off on how individual countries will act.

If tactical nukes, I can see NATO joining the war. They'd have to because they know they'll be constantly threatened by it from a madman.

[Solecismic]

If don't get why Israel would tell Zelenskyy to surrender in this war.

Because Putin is dictating the terms of the Iran deal. Last thing Israel wants is to piss off Putin right now. Biden won't help Israel so they're on their own. Bennett may have gotten exactly what he needed when Putin increased his ask. The deal is so ridiculously awful at this point that it's possible Biden will back off. It's basically, "pretend you're holding off a bit on the nukes, send us some oil, and we'll give you everything you want." But now Russia wants a little more sugar for itself. The getting's good there.



I do think there is a distinction between tactical nukes on the battlefield vs ICBM type nukes. If the latter, all bets are off on how individual countries will act.

If tactical nukes, I can see NATO joining the war. They'd have to because they know they'll be constantly threatened by it from a madman.

Channeling Obama... 1939 called and no one answered the telegraph. Europe may like to pretend everyone's besties and all, but when push comes to shove, Germany sends unusable moldly anti-tank trash from the days of the Holy Roman Empire and France has never even stood up for itself, let alone anyone else. Who knows which side Italy is on? Poland's trying (and the people of Poland have opened their homes to refugees in an inspiring manner), but it's still a relatively weak country.

They'll run from the Russian bear because they don't have to outrun the bear, they just have to outrun their neighbors until we can do enough to stop the bear.

Besides, despite the posturing, everyone seems fine with the thermobaric bombs and the hospital bombs and the let's-pretend-there's-a-cease-fire-so-we-can-bomb-the-people-trying-to-flee bombs. There is no line when it comes to Ukraine. We'll see if Putin continues into the Baltics, but I think NATO collapses if Putin tests that.

[Flasch186]

I disagree

If they go into the Baltics you’ll see a coming together not seen in 80 years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Because Putin is dictating the terms of the Iran deal. Last thing Israel wants is to piss off Putin right now. Biden won't help Israel so they're on their own. Bennett may have gotten exactly what he needed when Putin increased his ask. The deal is so ridiculously awful at this point that it's possible Biden will back off. It's basically, "pretend you're holding off a bit on the nukes, send us some oil, and we'll give you everything you want." But now Russia wants a little more sugar for itself. The getting's good there.

Haven't read up on the new deal. I assumed it was similar to last with some added incentives to Iran. UN inspects, Iran promises not to refine uranium to X point etc. I knew Russia was helping in the negotiations but didn't think Israel was more beholden to Russia vs US. Have to read up more here.

Channeling Obama... 1939 called and no one answered the telegraph. Europe may like to pretend everyone's besties and all, but when push comes to shove, Germany sends unusable moldly anti-tank trash from the days of the Holy Roman Empire and France has never even stood up for itself, let alone anyone else. Who knows which side Italy is on? Poland's trying (and the people of Poland have opened their homes to refugees in an inspiring manner), but it's still a relatively weak country.

They'll run from the Russian bear because they don't have to outrun the bear, they just have to outrun their neighbors until we can do enough to stop the bear.

TBF we are talking nuclear war. I'd still contend with ICBM, all bets are off. For tactical nukes against Ukraine, NATO won't let that happen without a joint response. It won't be an invasion of Russia but my guess is a lot of cruise missiles and air power.

Besides, despite the posturing, everyone seems fine with the thermobaric bombs and the hospital bombs and the let's-pretend-there's-a-cease-fire-so-we-can-bomb-the-people-trying-to-flee bombs. There is no line when it comes to Ukraine. We'll see if Putin continues into the Baltics, but I think NATO collapses if Putin tests that.

So why is the use of thermobaric bombs being called out? If used against Ukrainian military, I'd say its fair game. If used against civilians, its not the act of the bomb itself but the discriminate killing of civilians that is the problem.

On hospital bombs and innocent civilians, we know the US has frakked up before and bombed/killed innocents. I don't think majority of them were intentional vs fog of war, bad intel etc. but we've messed up before and can easily believe Russians have too. Now if there is a pattern (e.g. all 10 hospitals in Kyiv have been shelled), then that is a different story.

I do believe NATO should create a safe zone in western Ukraine for non-combatants. Russia seems to be getting more momentum now and if there are long "sieges", I can see NATO getting involved and creating a safe exit corridor for non-combatants (women, children, older men).

[Solecismic]

I disagree

If they go into the Baltics you’ll see a coming together not seen in 80 years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I hope you're right, because I think we're fighting for something more important than territory. Maybe fighting isn't the right word. More a way of life.

Haven't read up on the new deal. I assumed it was similar to last with some added incentives to Iran. UN inspects, Iran promises not to refine uranium to X point etc. I knew Russia was helping in the negotiations but didn't think Israel was more beholden to Russia vs US. Have to read up more here.

It's mostly that Iran has no need to comply with anything. They hand over some enriched uranium that they still own and get back. Sanctions are removed and they get money. They send us oil and get more money. That in turn funds attacks, because that's how Iran's worked for a long time now.

Israel isn't beholden to Russia. They just don't want to get on Putin's bad side when they don't seem to have any friends in the US or Europe. This despite the remarkable achievements with the Abraham Accords. If we could stick with the Iran sanctions and we just stopped doing dumb stuff in the Middle East, peace in that region seems almost fathomable. Now, not so much.

So why is the use of thermobaric bombs being called out? If used against Ukrainian military, I'd say its fair game. If used against civilians, its not the act of the bomb itself but the discriminate killing of civilians that is the problem.

On hospital bombs and innocent civilians, we know the US has frakked up before and bombed/killed innocents. I don't think majority of them were intentional vs fog of war, bad intel etc. but we've messed up before and can easily believe Russians have too. Now if there is a pattern (e.g. all 10 hospitals in Kyiv have been shelled), then that is a different story.

I do believe NATO should create a safe zone in western Ukraine for non-combatants. Russia seems to be getting more momentum now and if there are long "sieges", I can see NATO getting involved and creating a safe exit corridor for non-combatants (women, children, older men).

What is fair game? Sometimes you read the stuff that's out there and you wonder if there's some book called Robert's Rules of Combat, complete with illustrations of two lines of soldiers carrying muskets and firing and ducking and reloading while the other line fires - after Pinky Tuscadero waves a handkerchief to begin the proceedings.

So I see your point - if you're in active combat, you use your weaponry. However, when you're laying siege to a city, that means you do whatever you can to anyone defending the city and if you don't have weapons that can guide a missile down a chimney pipe from ten miles out, civilians are in the line of fire. And for that matter, maybe granny's packing heat? If she is, who would criticize her?

The problem then is whether Russia has any justification whatsoever in laying siege to Mariupol or Kharkiv or any other city outside of the "breakaway provinces" where it has sponsored war for the last eight years?

And so these lines become posturing unless we have other rules as well. We use the term "war crimes," and I guess we record just how the thermobaric bombs from hell are used against our fellow human beings and we politely request that Moscow hand Putin over for trial at some indeterminate point in the future.

We're not going to defend Ukraine. The people there have suffered, and will suffer a lot longer and a lot worse, if that seems possible. St. Petersburg was under siege for almost three years and a million-plus died. Russia knows both sides of this game.

You mention our rather disgusting adventures in Iraq, I think. OK, so we didn't go in there alone, but we did go in there under false pretenses (personally, I think Colin Powell's infamous vial contained the remains of Jimmy Hoffa). If I were Iraqi and my family hadn't personally suffered under Saddam Hussein (maybe both are mutually exclusive concepts), I'd never forgive or forget. I'd like to believe that our troops did everything possible to minimize loss of life. But mistakes were made and those can't easily be forgiven or forgotten, either.

So it's murky. The US isn't always right. And the US probably wasn't right when Yanukovych was deposed and Ukraine turned away from Russia in 2014. And then we let things fester after Putin took Crimea and no one really felt like telling him that was bad because we kind of understood why.

I don't think we've had a president capable of real diplomacy in a long, long time. Which is not to say Putin isn't a barbarian.

Oh, there are times these days when I'm glad I'm getting old.

[miami_fan]

I disagree

If they go into the Baltics you’ll see a coming together not seen in 80 years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Given the events of the last three weeks, I am not sure how any of the Baltic nations can be confident that someone will come and help them if Russia decides to invade them.

[NobodyHere]

The NK invasion per Red Dawn 2 was always ridiculous.


Well the original villians were suppose to be the Chinese, but that wouldn't have sold too many movie tickets in China.

Red Dawn remake swapped Chinese flags and insignia for North Korean ones for fear of losing out on billion-dollar box office | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2237717/Red-Dawn-remake-swapped-Chinese-flags-insignia-North-Korean-ones-fear-losing-billion-dollar-box-office.html)

[JPhillips]

There's a big difference between NATO countries and non-NATO countries. There's no doubt that an attack on a NATO country would be met with a NATO attack on Russian forces.

[RainMaker]

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Russians gunned down the humanitarian convoy of women and children during an evacuation from Peremoha village, Kyiv region, along pre-approved “green” corridor. Seven killed, including one child. Total casualties unknown</p>&mdash; Daria Kaleniuk (@dkaleniuk) <a href="https://twitter.com/dkaleniuk/status/1502746929083699201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[RainMaker]

Israel isn't beholden to Russia. They just don't want to get on Putin's bad side when they don't seem to have any friends in the US or Europe.

I don't understand this take. The United States gives Israel billions in aid each year. It has guaranteed billions more in loans they have taken out. We provide them with cutting-edge weaponry and intelligence. Fought wars for them. Supported them in the UN on just about every single issue and look the other way when they commit human rights abuses in the region.

In return, we receive nothing. Unless you count a few photo-ops every couple years. They have not fought by our side in a war and in fact have sold valuable military technology to our enemies.

In what way has Israel not been given support by the United States? And if that's the case, can we cut off the endless money supply to them?

[Solecismic]

I don't understand this take. The United States gives Israel billions in aid each year. It has guaranteed billions more in loans they have taken out. We provide them with cutting-edge weaponry and intelligence. Fought wars for them. Supported them in the UN on just about every single issue and look the other way when they commit human rights abuses in the region.

In return, we receive nothing. Unless you count a few photo-ops every couple years. They have not fought by our side in a war and in fact have sold valuable military technology to our enemies.

In what way has Israel not been given support by the United States? And if that's the case, can we cut off the endless money supply to them?

Fought wars for them? Not sure what you mean there. Can you be specific about what wars you're talking about? Israel provides intelligence, its own technology and is the only democracy in the region.

Human rights abuses? You mean by existing? On a small portion of the land their people have had for thousands of years? We can definitely argue about Samaria and Judea, but it's fairly obvious Israel would trade those claims for peace. They've tried many times. When they just ceded land without peace (Gaza), it only made the violence against them worse.

They are entitled to defend themselves against bombings aimed at civilians. The accusations of human rights abuses are exactly why the UN is a joke and China can imprison and torture millions of Muslim people while Disney celebrates in the background.

The minute Iran and its proxies say that Israel has a right to exist is the minute there's peace in that region.

[Edward64]

It looks as if Turkish drones are doing a decent job against a supposedly "modern" army.

Thinking about the next war, I sure hope we have anti-drone "stuff" figured out to protect the troops.

[Flasch186]

We're at the tipping point. When the images and videos of Mariupol combine with the major attack on Kyiv it's going to press NATO and the West's resolve to stay "out of it". That might be where we push the line... again.

[Edward64]

Wish I collected stamps. I would definitely add this to a collection.

Ukraine reveals ‘Russian warship, go fuck yourself!’ postage stamp | Ukraine | The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/12/ukraine-reveals-russian-warship-go-fuck-yourself-postage-stamp)
Ukraine has chosen the image for a new postage stamp called “Russian warship, go fuck yourself!” as the besieged country continues to try to keep morale high and win the PR battle against invading Russian forces.

The country’s first deputy foreign minister, Emine Dzheppar, announced the stamp commemorating the Snake Island incident, in which 13 border guards stationed on a roughly 16-hectare (40-acre) rocky island about 186 miles (300km) west of Crimea reportedly replied, when asked to surrender: “Russian warship, go fuck yourself.” They were then attacked, and thought killed.
https://i.insider.com/6227c320dcce010019a747d3?width=1000&format=jpeg&auto=webp

[Edward64]

We're at the tipping point. When the images and videos of Mariupol combine with the major attack on Kyiv it's going to press NATO and the West's resolve to stay "out of it". That might be where we push the line... again.

What line are we pushing? As in intervene with NATO boots on the ground?

[Edward64]

Dammit. MOEX closed again next week. How am I going to buy some Gazprom and do currency arbitrage with my Robinhood account?

I'm still trying to wrap my head around what is happening to the companies listed in the $500-$1T MOEX, and to the investors.

[Solecismic]

I started a collection when I was a kid. Added to it at times, but it's been about 20 years. I've been using the more modern US stamps as postage for ages now.

I don't think even the good stuff is worth as much as it was back at its height, but collectibles tend to do well in times of inflation. Just remember that practically nothing minted after 1920 is worth more than postage.

Still a ton of collectors on eBay and a couple of other auction sites. This will sell out very, very quickly. Get the artist to do signed panels and auction those. NFTs as well. They could raise an awful lot of money.

[Galaril]

It looks as if Turkish drones are doing a decent job against a supposedly "modern" army.

Thinking about the next war, I sure hope we have anti-drone "stuff" figured out to protect the troops.

For someone who has actually served in war I would recommend we start figuring out how we don’t have a next war.:-(

[Brian Swartz]

Unquestionably that's the best goal, but I think it requires a change in human nature. There will always be wars as long as there are people who make the bad decisions which typically lead to them.

[Brian Swartz]

NFTs as well. They could raise an awful lot of money.

Please no. Let's not countenance contributing to that nonsense.

[Solecismic]

Unquestionably that's the best goal, but I think it requires a change in human nature. There will always be wars as long as there are people who make the bad decisions which typically lead to them.

Mankind improves its ability to kill with every generation. We have to keep trying. The Cold War was a nice invention, but when we won, we conveniently forgot there was a loser.

Now, we have an opponent who understands it's his time on the stage. One who claims he has space lasers and we know he has hundreds of active nuclear warheads who knows where on submarines.

And I don't think he particularly cares that the Russian people can no longer binge on Coca Cola and Chicken McNuggets because we've put ourselves in a place where we're dependent on Asian energy and it will take years to get out of that place.

So, what's the price of peace? If it's living in a place where we don't have basic human rights, is it worth it?

If crypto-bros finally find meaning in NFTs that actually support something noble, then hurray for NFTs. I don't get it myself, either, but I think if you asked them, they'd say the same thing about my generation (and older) and stamp collecting.

[CrimsonFox]

I say talkin bout my g-g-g-g-generation...

[RainMaker]

Fought wars for them? Not sure what you mean there. Can you be specific about what wars you're talking about? Israel provides intelligence, its own technology and is the only democracy in the region.

The first Gulf War. We told them not to fight back and that we would handle it. I'd say our presence in Syria is primarily driven by our support of Israel.

Really not sure what them being a democracy has to do with your argument. And sharing intelligence is a sign of two countries who are on friendly terms. You're sort of arguing against yourself there.

Human rights abuses? You mean by existing? On a small portion of the land their people have had for thousands of years? We can definitely argue about Samaria and Judea, but it's fairly obvious Israel would trade those claims for peace. They've tried many times. When they just ceded land without peace (Gaza), it only made the violence against them worse.

They are entitled to defend themselves against bombings aimed at civilians. The accusations of human rights abuses are exactly why the UN is a joke and China can imprison and torture millions of Muslim people while Disney celebrates in the background.

The minute Iran and its proxies say that Israel has a right to exist is the minute there's peace in that region.

None of this has anything to do with your assertion that the United States is not friendly with Israel.

[Edward64]

Please no. Let's not countenance contributing to that nonsense.

I can see NFTs being like the tulip craze but can also see it being like dot-com where 99% fail but there will be some truly valuable NFTs.

But yeah, I personally don't get NFTs either. I rather have the $1M+ fine art/masterpiece that I bought to be truly a physical one-of-a-kind vs. some digital thingy. Give me the digital version as backup, but I want to see the paintbrush strokes, bits of paint jutting out some etc.

[Edward64]

You know, I would have thought there would be more stuff about cyber warfare. I assume some stuff are going on but regular folks don't hear about it. There was that stuff with Anonymous hacking Russian stuff. You'd think Russian hackers would be very aggressive like with the US energy infrastructure, always read that was vulnerable.

The post mortem on what happen, how much above norm, what got attacked, how it was prevented etc. will be an interesting read.

[Solecismic]

The first Gulf War. We told them not to fight back and that we would handle it. I'd say our presence in Syria is primarily driven by our support of Israel.

Really not sure what them being a democracy has to do with your argument. And sharing intelligence is a sign of two countries who are on friendly terms. You're sort of arguing against yourself there.



None of this has anything to do with your assertion that the United States is not friendly with Israel.

Truly odd. I guess I'd have to see some analysis that the the US roles in the Gulf war and Syria had anything to do with Israel. It's not something I've ever seen before. Iraq took Kuwait and the US and dozens of other countries stepped in because... Israel? More than 1,000 miles away? Where did that come from?

Israel has no problems enforcing anything that comes by way of the Golan Heights. That has nothing to do with Assad using chemical weapons on its own people. Israel couldn't stop that.

Yeah, Obama threw a fit because Netanyahu gave a speech he didn't like and soon afterward was the ridiculous Iran deal, which helped Iran recover a lot of its power. Biden seems determined to return to this deal, under even worse terms because Iran now knows the US doesn't care what happens. Over a few barrels of oil.

I think Israel knows it's on its own when Iran gives the nukes Biden's helping them create (nowhere in these deals has there ever been any real requirement for Iran to allow inspections of key facilities) over to their fighters in Lebanon. Which is why they keep sabotaging Iranian facilities.

[MIJB#19]

Given the events of the last three weeks, I am not sure how any of the Baltic nations can be confident that someone will come and help them if Russia decides to invade them.Apples and oranges.
Ukraine isn't part of the NATO, European Union or Euro zone. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are in all three.

[miami_fan]

Apples and oranges.
Ukraine isn't part of the NATO, European Union or Euro zone. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are in all three.

Are those the countries that everyone is willing to start World War 3 over? Because that is the stated reason the West has not directly intervened in Ukraine, not because they are not in NATO.

My point is not that NATO won't help. I am saying that those nations would be silly not to have questions about the support they would receive given what has happened.

[Lathum]

So we are cool with Russian soldier killing an American journalist?

[miami_fan]

So we are cool with Russian soldier killing an American journalist?

I mean yes because we hate THE MEDIA in general. I suppose it would be good to know whether he was left or right wing just to confirm things.

[MIJB#19]

Are those the countries that everyone is willing to start World War 3 over? Because that is the stated reason the West has not directly intervened in Ukraine, not because they are not in NATO.

My point is not that NATO won't help. I am saying that those nations would be silly not to have questions about the support they would receive given what has happened.They're not "those countries". It would politically be the same as invading Alaska. Will the NATO want to start WW3 over Alaska?

[flere-imsaho]

Truly odd. I guess I'd have to see some analysis that the the US roles in the Gulf war and Syria had anything to do with Israel. It's not something I've ever seen before. Iraq took Kuwait and the US and dozens of other countries stepped in because... Israel? More than 1,000 miles away? Where did that come from?

Remember Scud missiles? That's when I first learned about them, at least.

Anyway, during the Gulf War, Iraq repeatedly launched Scud missiles at Israel to try and get Israel to join the U.S. Coalition, assuming that if that happened, the Muslim countries that were already in the U.S. Coalition or otherwise supported the coalition politically, would drop said support, making the U.S.-led effort dramatically less legitimate (back when that sort of thing mattered).

[RainMaker]

Yeah, Obama threw a fit because Netanyahu gave a speech he didn't like and soon afterward was the ridiculous Iran deal, which helped Iran recover a lot of its power. Biden seems determined to return to this deal, under even worse terms because Iran now knows the US doesn't care what happens. Over a few barrels of oil.

I think Israel knows it's on its own when Iran gives the nukes Biden's helping them create (nowhere in these deals has there ever been any real requirement for Iran to allow inspections of key facilities) over to their fighters in Lebanon. Which is why they keep sabotaging Iranian facilities.

A lot of this is false. The JCPOA had been negotiated for almost 2 years, well before the Netanyahu speech. And there absolutely were requirements for Iran to allow inspections. You can read the whole thing here.

DocumentCloud (https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/2165399-full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal)

How is Biden helping build nukes? Even Israel has admitted that uranium enrichment increased after the deal was squashed by Trump.

Israel was upset that the deal didn't go further. That it wasn't longer and didn't touch on conventional weapons and Iran's dabbling in proxy wars. And that the US was unwilling to put military options on the table. Fair points, but not related to the enrichment of Uranium, which was what the United States and other countries were most concerned about.

I guess Israel is "on it's own" if you don't count the billions in aid we send them each year and the mountains of military equipment we ship over. This has nothing to do with Ukraine so it shouldn't be in here, I just found the notion that the United States is not an ally of Israel to be ridiculous considering what we provide. And it seems you might be getting your information about it from the same places you get your COVID news.

[RainMaker]

Remember Scud missiles? That's when I first learned about them, at least.

Anyway, during the Gulf War, Iraq repeatedly launched Scud missiles at Israel to try and get Israel to join the U.S. Coalition, assuming that if that happened, the Muslim countries that were already in the U.S. Coalition or otherwise supported the coalition politically, would drop said support, making the U.S.-led effort dramatically less legitimate (back when that sort of thing mattered).

Yup, we also gave Israel our new SAM systems to shoot them down (made by a company I worked for). The system was fairly new and the technology far ahead of other countries. So it was a big deal to provide them to Israel at the time. And much of Israel's Iron Dome is built off that technology.

Worth noting that the MIM-104 didn't really work well at that time, but we didn't know that. And that it was believed that Israel sold that technology to China afterwards.

[NobodyHere]

...And that it was believed that Israel sold that technology to China afterwards.

I'm glad that later editions of Civilization fixed this issue.

[Solecismic]

Israel has always denied this. Periodically, various claims have been made that all sorts of technologies have been stolen from the US or sold by various entities. China has quite a bit it shouldn't have, and it's impossible to determine exactly how because they seem quite adept at spying or knowing who to approach.

Yes, I know what the Iran deal states. But Iran never agreed to the inspections, and never allowed them into the key facilities - which is something everyone knew would happen. The text says Iran would never pursue nuclear weapons, but I don't think even the most naive people out there believe they weren't and didn't continue to do so.

As you note, Israel strongly opposed the deal because it allowed Iran to continue to wage war against Israel (it's not "dabbling" to finance terrorists and send your own elite troops to train them). Do you think it's a good idea to remove sanctions from a country that pursues the elimination of an entire people? The idea of an Iran deal started before Netanyahu's speech, but the serious idea that the US would agree was all Obama.

[Edward64]

Yes, I know what the Iran deal states. But Iran never agreed to the inspections, and never allowed them into the key facilities - which is something everyone knew would happen. The text says Iran would never pursue nuclear weapons, but I don't think even the most naive people out there believe they weren't and didn't continue to do so.


According to wiki it did include inspections. Now something may have had happened back then but the Obama deal did have it.

Iran nuclear deal framework - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework#Summary_of_agreement)
Parameters of prospective actions by P5+1[19]
Lift all sanctions within 4 to 12 months of a final accord.
Develop a mechanism to restore old sanctions if Iran fails to comply as per IAEA reports and inspection.
The EU will remove energy and banking sanctions.
The United States will remove sanctions against domestic and foreign companies that do business with Iran.
All UN resolutions sanctioning Iran will be annulled.
All UN-related sanctions will be dismantled.]

[Solecismic]

According to wiki it did include inspections. Now something may have had happened back then but the Obama deal did have it.

Iran nuclear deal framework - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_nuclear_deal_framework#Summary_of_agreement)

Edit: what an interesting choice of tags from the NYT, "bars", anyway, that's the edit (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/21/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-talks-inspections.html)

It remained in the text, but Iran never did allow the inspections in question here. Just the dog-and-pony shows.

[RainMaker]

As you note, Israel strongly opposed the deal because it allowed Iran to continue to wage war against Israel (it's not "dabbling" to finance terrorists and send your own elite troops to train them). Do you think it's a good idea to remove sanctions from a country that pursues the elimination of an entire people? The idea of an Iran deal started before Netanyahu's speech, but the serious idea that the US would agree was all Obama.

I guess it comes down to what your goals are in the scenario. Is it to benefit the United States? If it is, preventing Iran from enriching uranium and allowing them to flood the market with oil is a net positive for us. But as you said, that's at the expense of innocent lives.

It's the same scenario with other countries. Saudi Arabia commits horrendous human rights abuses. They're committing genocide in Yemen and have extensive ties to terrorism (including 9/11). UAE has a horrible human rights record and allows criminals to launder money. Pakistan has a long history of supporting terrorists. Israel is an apartheid state. Heck, we won't even go after the Russian oligarchs because it might hurt our real estate market in some cities. So how do we decide which countries get a pass and which don't?

I should add that the deal wasn't just Obama. It included the UK and the EU. It was a global effort, not the whims of one man angry about a speech.

[RainMaker]

Edit: what an interesting choice of tags from the NYT, "bars", anyway, that's the edit (https://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/21/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-talks-inspections.html)

It remained in the text, but Iran never did allow the inspections in question here. Just the dog-and-pony shows.

This article is from before the deal was even in place.

[Solecismic]

Israel is an apartheid state.

At that point, I stop reading you, period. That is not an acceptable view. I suggest you look at this link:

Defining Antisemitism - United States Department of State (https://www.state.gov/defining-antisemitism/)

This is the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition, which our country has adopted. I just can't respond to bigotry. So I will stop now. Really, I should have done this a while back.

[HerRealName]

At that point, I stop reading you, period. That is not an acceptable view. I suggest you look at this link:

Defining Antisemitism - United States Department of State (https://www.state.gov/defining-antisemitism/)

This is the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition, which our country has adopted. I just can't respond to bigotry. So I will stop now. Really, I should have done this a while back.

Israel’s apartheid against Palestinians: a cruel system of domination and a crime against humanity - Amnesty International (https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/)

[Solecismic]

Israel’s apartheid against Palestinians: a cruel system of domination and a crime against humanity - Amnesty International (https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/02/israels-apartheid-against-palestinians-a-cruel-system-of-domination-and-a-crime-against-humanity/)

Analyzing Amnesty’s Antisemitic Apartheid Attack » ngomonitor (https://www.ngo-monitor.org/reports/amnesty-apartheid-analysis/)

I don't want to derail this too much, but even organizations like Amnesty International get caught up in this. It is bigotry to hold Israel to a double-standard that no other nation in the world would pass - particularly the nations that seek its destruction.

I urge you and others to read these arguments. The Arab citizens of Israel (who number about two million) have the exact same rights as every Israeli citizen. The same could not possibly be said about Christians and Jews in most Arab nations. Or Muslims in China. Yet you don't see groups like this throwing around the A-word about China or Iran.

What people call "occupied" territory is disputed, and includes the most holy sites in Jerusalem (as well as the Al Aqsa Mosque, which was built centuries later). The Palestinians do not have a country with defined borders and the minute that the rest of the region accepts that Israel can exist, that will be easy to settle - as it almost was decades ago when Arafat got almost everything he asked for, and then reneged at the last minute.

[Edward64]

I do think this topic could delve into an interesting discussion (e.g. what is definition of apartheid etc.).

But com'on. We all get off on a tangent but this is way past. There are Biden, Trump, Racism etc. threads or create our own Apartheid thread.

Whatever.

[HerRealName]

I do think this topic could delve into an interesting discussion (e.g. what is definition of apartheid etc.).

But com'on. We all get off on a tangent but this is way past. There are Biden, Trump, Racism etc. threads or create our own Apartheid thread.

Whatever.

Yeah, this isn't as topical as your deep dive into dual citizenship. My apologies.

[BYU 14]

Yeah, this isn't as topical as your deep dive into dual citizenship. My apologies.

LOL, it's funny cause you knew it would be coming Edward..

[RainMaker]

Toss Human Rights Watch on the bigoted list too.

Israeli Authorities and the Crimes of Apartheid and Persecution | HRW (https://www.hrw.org/report/2021/04/27/threshold-crossed/israeli-authorities-and-crimes-apartheid-and-persecution)

I didn't make the definition of the word or implement policies that match it. Just pointing out that we decide what human rights abuses are sanctionable and which ones we ignore or excuse. It's not a simple decision.

[Edward64]

Somewhat fair. And when asked to redirect back to topic at hand, I did.

[RainMaker]

If this is true, Russia is getting desperate.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Huge story from ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/Dimi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Dimi</a>⁩: US officials claim Russia is already running out of some equipment less than three weeks into the war in Ukraine, and has asked China for help <a href="https://t.co/Zcrcsc7IC6">https://t.co/Zcrcsc7IC6</a></p>&mdash; max seddon (@maxseddon) <a href="https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1503102558331625473?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 13, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[NobodyHere]

This threadjack probably should be in another thread.

[GrantDawg]

China was refusing to give them civilian plane parts a few days ago. Now they are going to give them military assistance?

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

If true, this will be a pivotal moment for China. Either join in as an "ally" with Russia for stay neutral. My guess is they'll stay neutral as the west is more important economically than Russia. And what will Russia do anyway if they refuse.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-13-22/h_31431ec0d0acc2e9b12807abc196a6b1
Russia has asked China for military assistance in Ukraine, including drones, a senior US official said Sunday.

CNN has reached out to the Russian embassy in the US for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN's Dana Bash Sunday that China providing Russia with support is a “concern.”

“We also are watching closely to see the extent to which China actually does provide any form of support, material support or economic support, to Russia. It is a concern of ours. And we have communicated to Beijing that we will not stand by and allow any country to compensate Russia for its losses from the economic sanctions,” Sullivan said.

Sullivan said the US has made it clear to Beijing there will "absolutely be consequences" for "large-scale" efforts to give the Kremlin a workaround to US sanctions.

"We will not allow that to go forward and allow there to be a lifeline to Russia from these economic sanctions from any country anywhere in the world," he said.

Sullivan is set to meet with his Chinese counterpart Yang Jiechi in Rome Monday.

Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu told CNN Sunday he had not heard of Russia's request.

"I've never heard of that. China is deeply concerned and grieved on the Ukraine situation. We sincerely hope that the situation will ease and peace will return at an early date," Pengyu said. "The current situation in Ukraine is indeed disconcerting. Utmost efforts should be made to support Russia and Ukraine in carrying forward negotiations despite the difficult situation to produce a peaceful outcome. We support and encourage all efforts that are conducive to a peaceful settlement of the crisis. The high priority now is to prevent the tense situation from escalating or even getting out of control. There is consensus about this among the international community, including the parties concerned.”

[miami_fan]

They're not "those countries". It would politically be the same as invading Alaska. Will the NATO want to start WW3 over Alaska?

No, which is why given that situation I would say that "Alaska" should not be confident that someone was on their way to help.

I am not sure why this is a controversial statement. Here is a link to an interview with Latvia’s Defense Minister from earlier this week. He does not sound like someone who is 100% confident in what the West's response would be if they were invaded.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/latvia-defense-baltics-eastern-europe-putin/

[bhlloy]

Plus if it’s Trump or a Trump lite in 2024 he’s probably going through with pulling the US out of NATO anyway. I think the fears are well founded.

[Solecismic]

I have more to say on the bigotry issue, mainly that it's a lot easier to stand up against it when it isn't so pervasive. In Michigan, just down the road, we have a Greenfield Village - a tourist attraction dedicated to a hero of our country who spent a decent amount of his fortune distributing The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. Hitler also loved this hero and gave him Germany's highest honor for non-Germans and quoted him in Mein Kampf.

It's hard to feel so shitty about something so beloved in the area I grew up in. Today, the Ford Motor Company is not a horrible thing - that's in their past and today's ownership seems fine. But it's important to remember the past.

This is relevant to the Ukraine invasion because Putin and Xi are, all of a sudden, the biggest pretend anti-Nazi crusaders on the planet. Anything related to this history, including Israel's very careful steps (and apparent desire to remain neutral) during this invasion is worth examining. The link I quoted before explains the relationship between Antisemitism and criticism of Israel (some of which is valid, of course).

I don't need to go any further. My point is basically about the bigotry and I will not continue to confront it here. If it makes you feel uncomfortable, trust that I'll do my best to refrain in the future. This attack on Ukraine has me quite worried about the future of our world, because right now I think there's some chance it will turn into WWIII. And that makes me wonder if this is a world worth saving. I think it is, but I think more about things like bigotry and the nature of man these days.

Plus if it’s Trump or a Trump lite in 2024 he’s probably going through with pulling the US out of NATO anyway. I think the fears are well founded.

realclearpolitics.com (https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2022/02/25/flashback_2018_president_trump_told_nato_secretary_europe_is_a_captive_of_russia_as_long_as_theyre_buying_russian_oil_and_gas.html)

This is classic Trump - a very interesting transcript. I do not think he would have pulled out of NATO. He's all over the place, but I think he makes some excellent points here.

The danger with Trump, of course, is that he will act on a whim more often than not. It wouldn't be so easy to pull out of NATO and it's likely he'd talked out of it or say the exact opposite thing tomorrow (I guess that's the art of the deal or something).

I think we need leadership that understands and respects the complexity of our government's structure and what checks and balances really means. It's supposed to be very hard to change things. That's how a democracy can work. If we just voted red or blue and whoever got the most electoral votes became dictator, then it's probably closer to a "pure" democracy than a republic, but it's going to fail quickly. Our government structure is intentionally difficult to navigate and move. That's a feature, not a bug.

[Edward64]

I think the odds for WW3 is low. With nukes, extremely low.

With that said, haven't read anything about NATO positioning troops at the border. I assume they are for a just in case. In my more likely scenario, NATO will have to create a humanitarian "safe zone" in western Ukraine. Haven't read anything about US troops in Europe being repositioned either.

[RainMaker]

I don't need to go any further. My point is basically about the bigotry and I will not continue to confront it here. If it makes you feel uncomfortable, trust that I'll do my best to refrain in the future.

Pointing out Israel's policies is not bigotry. It's a sovereign nation comprised of Jewish, Muslim, and Christian people. Just as criticizing the policies of the United States does not make you a Christian bigot. Nor does criticizing the policies of Iran make you an Islamaphobe.

None of this makes me feel uncomfortable. Your tactic is not new. It's meant to censor those who have an opinion on the policies of another sovereign nation. And it'll continue to be used because it means not having to answer for policy.

The Israeli Government does not speak or represent every Jewish person. Just as the US Government does not speak or represent every Christian. Or Iran speak or represent every Muslim. The policies enacted by governments are open to criticism, even if a lobbying group tries telling you that there is an exception.

[RainMaker]

Plus if it’s Trump or a Trump lite in 2024 he’s probably going through with pulling the US out of NATO anyway. I think the fears are well founded.

I don't think he would pull us out of NATO. There is far too much bipartisan support in the government as well as the military.

But I do think the goal would be to weaken it as much as possible. NATO only works if you truly believe that all countries would respond in defense of fellow members.

[RainMaker]

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vladimir Putin's tanks are firing on civilian apartment buildings in Ukraine. <br><br>War crimes right before our very eyes. <a href="https://t.co/HzIrYJhTsf">pic.twitter.com/HzIrYJhTsf</a></p>&mdash; Josh Campbell (@joshscampbell) <a href="https://twitter.com/joshscampbell/status/1503176152755716097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[GrantDawg]

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Israel announces publicly for the first time it will comply with the international sanctions against Russia. FM Lapid says &quot;Israel won't be used as a means to bypass the sanctions on Russia&quot;</p>&mdash; Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) <a href="https://twitter.com/BarakRavid/status/1503316397773971463?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[flere-imsaho]

Pointing out Israel's policies is not bigotry.

Our Rabbi has made this point a few times in the past few years, especially when put against the rising incidence of anti-semitism in the United States. Can an American Jew criticize Israel and not be anti-semitic? The answer is yes, because you're criticizing the actions of the state, not the concept of Israel as a whole.

[flere-imsaho]

If true, this will be a pivotal moment for China. Either join in as an "ally" with Russia for stay neutral. My guess is they'll stay neutral as the west is more important economically than Russia. And what will Russia do anyway if they refuse.

This, fundamentally, has been Putin's miscalculation. He clearly thought his disinformation campaigns, and Trump's presidency, had sufficiently weakened Western alliances & resolve, and thus he'd be able to do something like this and get away with it.

Luckily, the resolve was still there, and China wants no part in being cut off from the world as Russia has been. Another 4 years of Trump, and it might have been different. Even if one chooses to believe that Putin does not have kompramat on Trump, it's difficult to see someone who praises Putin like this (https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/03/politics/trump-putin-russia-timeline/), or publicly chooses to believe Putin over his own intelligence agencies (https://www.npr.org/2018/07/17/629601233/trumps-helsinki-bow-to-putin-leaves-world-wondering-whats-up), orchestrating a multi-national response like Biden has. YMMV.

[MIJB#19]

No, which is why given that situation I would say that "Alaska" should not be confident that someone was on their way to help.

I am not sure why this is a controversial statement. Here is a link to an interview with Latvia’s Defense Minister from earlier this week. He does not sound like someone who is 100% confident in what the West's response would be if they were invaded.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/08/latvia-defense-baltics-eastern-europe-putin/Now I'm confused about what we agree or disagree on here.

If Latvia is invaded by a non-NATO member, it's considered a declaration of war on all NATO members. Would individual NATO members feel uncomfortable getting involved? They might, but that's a question that was already answered in 2004 when Latvia (amongst others) became a member of NATO and today's political leaders have inherited to deal with the consequences.

[MIJB#19]

I think the odds for WW3 is low. With nukes, extremely low.

With that said, haven't read anything about NATO positioning troops at the border. I assume they are for a just in case. In my more likely scenario, NATO will have to create a humanitarian "safe zone" in western Ukraine. Haven't read anything about US troops in Europe being repositioned either.NATO members have been moving around and building up troops in the Baltics since Russia invaded Crimea and recently over the concerns that Russia might invade Ukraine.
NATO - News: NATO Allies send more ships, jets to enhance deterrence and defence in eastern Europe, 24-Jan.-2022 (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_191040.htm)
The questionable part here is whether it's been sufficient to seriously protect and defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

[sterlingice]

NATO members have been moving around and building up troops in the Baltics since Russia invaded Crimea and recently over the concerns that Russia might invade Ukraine.
NATO - News: NATO Allies send more ships, jets to enhance deterrence and defence in eastern Europe, 24-Jan.-2022 (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_191040.htm)
The questionable part here is whether it's been sufficient to seriously protect and defend Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

I don't think there are enough troops in any of those places to adequately defend them from a first attack. But you can only get so far on a first attack - we've been witnessing that over the last couple of weeks. However, before you can even mount your second attack, NATO's combined forces, including our Navy and Air Force will decimate whatever military you were hoping to use for said second attack.

I mean Lithuania's capital, Vilnius, is only like 20 miles across the border from Belarus. Talinn, Estonia's capital is about 200 miles from St. Petersburg. They're not large countries and if you struck quickly, you might be able to decapitate one of their governments or maybe all 3. But I think doing that would instantly launch the world into WW3. And it's a battle Russia knows they can't win. And it's one that probably ends with nukes flying.

SI

[JPhillips]

Russia, given their "tactics" in Ukraine, would be without any vehicles in about 48 hours if they attacked a NATO country. Whatever fear there was of Russian air defense is completely gone now.

This is also why I think it's so important to try to keep NATO out of the actual fighting. Once NATO joins the fray it will be a quick disaster for the Russians and the pressure to use WMD would be intense.

[miami_fan]

Now I'm confused about what we agree or disagree on here.

If Latvia is invaded by a non-NATO member, it's considered a declaration of war on all NATO members. Would individual NATO members feel uncomfortable getting involved? They might, but that's a question that was already answered in 2004 when Latvia (amongst others) became a member of NATO and today's political leaders have inherited to deal with the consequences.

Let me try it a different way.

I don't believe the reason NATO has not directly intervened in Ukraine is because Ukraine is not a part of NATO. NATO has undertaken direct military actions on behalf of non NATO nations before. We can debate the merits of whether they should intervene or not. There are reasons for NATO to not intervene and yes that includes not wanting to start WWIII. As a result, the situation ins Ukraine is what it is. That is the trade off NATO has decided to make.

Using non NATO membership as a reason for not intervening is an excuse, not a reason IMO. If I am Latvia and I see what I believe is excuse making by NATO when it comes to defending a nation that looks a lot like me, I would wonder if similar excuse making might be around the corner when Russia shows up on my doorstep. I know I have an agreement with NATO. It would not stop me from looking through that agreement one more time to make sure that NATO won't find an excuse for not defending me.

[RainMaker]

For all the talk about oil, it was trading at under $100 earlier today.

[MIJB#19]

Let me try it a different way.

I don't believe the reason NATO has not directly intervened in Ukraine is because Ukraine is not a part of NATO. NATO has undertaken direct military actions on behalf of non NATO nations before. We can debate the merits of whether they should intervene or not. There are reasons for NATO to not intervene and yes that includes not wanting to start WWIII. As a result, the situation ins Ukraine is what it is. That is the trade off NATO has decided to make.

Using non NATO membership as a reason for not intervening is an excuse, not a reason IMO. If I am Latvia and I see what I believe is excuse making by NATO when it comes to defending a nation that looks a lot like me, I would wonder if similar excuse making might be around the corner when Russia shows up on my doorstep. I know I have an agreement with NATO. It would not stop me from looking through that agreement one more time to make sure that NATO won't find an excuse for not defending me.
Ukraine not being a member of NATO (or whatever) is the excuse to not support them, it's pretty clear that the EU (and their members) and the USA have taken that stance.

My point is that there should be no concern for Latvia. If Latvia would get invaded by Russia. It can't be "what would NATO do", because it would be an assault on NATO. The decision what to do has been made in 2004: NATO defends NATO.

Providing the Latvian minister's concerns are valid, it would mean the end of NATO there and then.

[GrantDawg]

Russia, given their "tactics" in Ukraine, would be without any vehicles in about 48 hours if they attacked a NATO country. Whatever fear there was of Russian air defense is completely gone now.

This is also why I think it's so important to try to keep NATO out of the actual fighting. Once NATO joins the fray it will be a quick disaster for the Russians and the pressure to use WMD would be intense.
No doubt. Our forces may be out numbered to begin, but NATO would have complete air superiority within hours.

[Groundhog]

Our Rabbi has made this point a few times in the past few years, especially when put against the rising incidence of anti-semitism in the United States. Can an American Jew criticize Israel and not be anti-semitic? The answer is yes, because you're criticizing the actions of the state, not the concept of Israel as a whole.


This is the only acceptable way to think IMO. I have zero issues with the Jewish people or faith and a lot of issues with the modern Israeli state. I don't equate the modern state of Israel with the Jewish religion in my mind at all, any more than I do any other country with any other religion. I understand the deep historic and religious ties between the Jewish people and the region very well - the same is true with many people and cultures scattered all across the planet, and these should not give modern-day governments any kind of pass or freedom from criticism.

[Solecismic]

This is the only acceptable way to think IMO. I have zero issues with the Jewish people or faith and a lot of issues with the modern Israeli state. I don't equate the modern state of Israel with the Jewish religion in my mind at all, any more than I do any other country with any other religion. I understand the deep historic and religious ties between the Jewish people and the region very well - the same is true with many people and cultures scattered all across the planet, and these should not give modern-day governments any kind of pass or freedom from criticism.

This is just weird. I specifically wrote, more than once, that it is not Antisemitic on its face to criticize Israeli policies. I provided a link where that's pretty much the first sentence.

And yet that's still where we are. I guess nuance truly doesn't exist online. My objection is specifically to the five words I initially quoted. Those are every bit as bigoted as the use of 88 or 14 would be in the context of this issue. I tried to be as specific as humanly possible about the difference, and no one apparently bothered with the word or the links or trying to understand the distinction.

It is a crucial one. No one is more critical of the Israeli government than a patriotic Israeli citizen. But the take that Israel is an apartheid state is Antisemitic. If it's not intended to be Antisemitic, then take the time to learn more about the history of the region, the reality of trying to exist next to countries that are determined to push you "from the river to the sea." That's even written in the charter documents for the Palestinian territories.

Again, I don't want to belabor this and I intend not to talk about anymore (really, if this doesn't work, fuck it), but I wanted to be as clear as possible about why I see it this way.

[flere-imsaho]

This is just weird. I specifically wrote, more than once, that it is not Antisemitic on its face to criticize Israeli policies. I provided a link where that's pretty much the first sentence.

This is what you wrote that kicked this all off (in response to RM calling Israel an apartheid state):

At that point, I stop reading you, period. That is not an acceptable view. I suggest you look at this link:

Defining Antisemitism - United States Department of State (https://www.state.gov/defining-antisemitism/)

This is the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance definition, which our country has adopted. I just can't respond to bigotry. So I will stop now. Really, I should have done this a while back.

This seems to be the relevant section from the link:

Manifestations might include the targeting of the state of Israel, conceived as a Jewish collectivity. However, criticism of Israel similar to that leveled against any other country cannot be regarded as antisemitic. Antisemitism frequently charges Jews with conspiring to harm humanity


I mean, I feel you're arguing with yourself, here.

Your earlier post implies that RM's characterization of Israel as an apartheid state is not "criticism of Israel similar to that leveled against any other country" because you explicitly characterize it as bigotry. Therefore we must assume you meant RM's characterization was beyond the pale, so to speak (ignoring the fact that several other states in history have pursued apartheid policies, including the United States, so RM's characterization would not be anti-semitic).

However, your later post contradicts this, possibly due to the above facts.

So, basically, I'm confused.

[Brian Swartz]

Part of this is the baked-in assumption that this forum generally is against bigotry in all forms. We've seen multiple times that this isn't the case.

[GrantDawg]

Early planning of a meeting of all NATO leaders next week in Brussels. This would include President Biden and other heads of state. It is not a done deal yet, but forming up.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Looks like China is getting more "involved". No real specifics though.

U.S. warns China against providing aid to Russia during 'intense' 7-hour meeting - MarketWatch (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-warns-china-against-providing-aid-to-russia-during-intense-7-hour-meeting-01647295698?mod=home-page)
Meanwhile, two administration officials said the U.S. had determined that China had signaled to Russia that it would be willing to provide both military support for the campaign in Ukraine and financial backing to help stave off the impact of severe sanctions imposed by the West. The officials said that assessment had been relayed to Western and Asian allies and partners earlier Monday.

“Moscow has received a positive response from Beijing,” said one official, describing a diplomatic cable sent to U.S. embassies asking for them to inform their host governments of the information. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive information.

Sullivan made clear during an “intense” seven-hour meeting that the Biden administration has deep concerns about China’s alignment with Russia at this time, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said.

Psaki declined to comment on whether the U.S. believes China has already provided the Russians with military, economic or other assistance.

[RainMaker]

A maternity hospital.

Watching the videos, it was clear her injuries were catastrophic.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Pregnant woman pictured being carried from a maternity hospital in Mariupol after it was shelled by Russian forces has died along with her unborn baby, Ukraine's Foreign Ministry says. <a href="https://t.co/CwKE29uDOc">https://t.co/CwKE29uDOc</a></p>&mdash; NBC News (@NBCNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1503343480663388164?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RainMaker]

Russia’s Assault On Kyiv Continues As Foreign Leaders Visit Ukraine’s Capital | Talking Points Memo (https://talkingpointsmemo.com/live-blog/russias-assault-on-kyiv-continues-as-foreign-leaders-visit-ukraines-capital?entry=1408905)

[Lathum]

Russia put 11 Americans on a sanction list today, mostly high ranking government officials and Hillary and Hunter Biden.

Not Trump and not one republican.

[GrantDawg]

Russia put 11 Americans on a sanction list today, mostly high ranking government officials and Hillary and Hunter Biden.

Not Trump and not one republican.
Tells you all you need to know, huh?

[Thomkal]

I'm sure Hilary and Hunter are shaking in their boots right now.

[RainMaker]

More journalists being targeted it seems. A long time Fox News photographer was killed. So was a producer for the network, although they've kept that quiet (maybe to protect her family or to not upset the Russians by admitting they had a Ukraine citizen on the payroll).

This along with the American documentarian who was working for the NYT. Others have been shot.

[Lathum]

Wonder how Carlson et al are going to handle this, if they even acknowledge it.

[Solecismic]

A quick surf over to the Fox web site indicates it's a top story. I guess I'm not sure why it's an issue that Putin is playing politics against the party in power. I thought the whole Steele thing was debunked a long time ago, but maybe I'm wrong. Seems like one side or the other has been involved in "investigating" the other side and their relationships to Ukraine and Russia for decades now. Never seems to amount to anything. But lock her up, lock him up, lock everyone up. It would probably do us a world of good.

[HerRealName]

Seems like one side just had a lot of high ranking advisors and officials imprisoned due to those relationships. That's a lot more than "never seems to amount to anything".

[RainMaker]

Well, there was the part where Trump illegally withheld weapons from Ukraine unless they framed his opponent's son for a crime. Or that the Chairman of his campaign, personal lawyer, and many top aides had extensive ties (some criminal) to pro-Russian individuals looking to overthrow the government of Ukraine.

It was pretty clear who's side that party is on and not surprising why the Russian government would exclude them from any sanctions. I mean the President stated he trusted Putin more than our own law enforcement and intelligence agencies.

Also not surprising now that the perception of Russia has changed so much that these people are furiously backtracking and pretending these associations didn't take place.

[Solecismic]

Do you have sources for this information? I know Trump was impeached and a lot was said about that, but the actual impeachment charge seemed to be about something different.

I get it. One can wallow in the NYT or the HuffPost or Fox or OAN and hear all sorts of things. That's a big part of how we got where we are right now in terms of divisiveness. You read the Steele thing and you just cringe that people actually believed it. The other side claims there's a laptop that proves Hunter Biden was taking money from China, Ukraine and probably Tuvalu as well, and some porn movies to boot.

It's a horrible rabbit hole to get stuck in. Just remember that all they want is clicks. And they don't get clicks unless they work you up into a frenzy of hate. We get the politicians we deserve.

[RainMaker]

All this stuff was extensively covered by every major news agency in the world. There is even a transcript of the phone call in question and testimony by a whistleblower and Ambassador. Trials were held, people convicted. Tweets, TV appearances, all that stuff too.

Log off Newsmax for a few hours and see what's happened in the world the past few years.

[Edward64]

Not too surprising I guess that US and UK are #1 & #2. Surprised somewhat about Germany being #3. Very surprised at India at #5 ... doesn't seem to fit but I wonder if it's the goal of Ukrainian citizenship?

https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/INTERACTIVE_Ukraine_Foreign_Legion_14-03-2022.png?quality=80&w=770&resize=770%2C770

[tarcone]

Have gun, will travel

[Edward64]

A third Russian general taken out (fourth if you count the Chechnya "general"). Article below has the tally.

https://i2-prod.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article26471155.ece/ALTERNATES/s615b/0_Units-of-Russian-mountain-air-assault-division-hold-exercise-in-Crimea.jpg

[Edward64]

Pretty interesting Reddit AMA by a Al-Jazeera journalist in Russia (still in progress, he hasn't answered a lot of questions yet).

I've been wondering what they are thinking in Russia and this guy has been able to provide some perspective.

TL DR Russians know about the war, majority seem to still support it and believe the propaganda, noticing the sanctions and pull-outs, aware of ruble crashing & see prices going up. He said Russians can still access english speaking websites which was a surprise to me.

I’m a reporter and producer working in Moscow for Al Jazeera where press freedoms have been limited. Ask me anything. : worldnews (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/tetmoh/im_a_reporter_and_producer_working_in_moscow_for/)

[Edward64]

Some chatter on reddit on negotiations. Can't assume below is reliable but think this is a good compromise. Question now is about Crimea (still Russian I think) and the 2 other Russian friendly areas (prob still gone).

Damage to Putin is done and hopefully he won't have that iron grip anymore. Ukraine can rebuild and stock up in preparation for the next one (if there is one). Their standing in the world will greatly increase as the country that was able to stand their ground and not crumble.

Ukraine could agree to what Russians call "neutral status" but according to the Ukrainian model. That means legally verified security guarantees: in case of war signatories provide weapons and air defense immediately without bureaucratic procedures or conditions, - UA Negotiator

[RainMaker]

Even China is turning their back on Russia.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Fury in Kremlin after China's Ambassador to Ukraine congratulates them for their resistance, vows economic support to rebuild Ukraine<a href="https://t.co/A4DE8veSkl">https://t.co/A4DE8veSkl</a></p>&mdash; AlexandruC4 (@AlexandruC4) <a href="https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1503729544783708163?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 15, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[BYU 14]

China was always going to be the key and if they are sincere that is huge. Apparently no limits has limits after all.

[Fidatelo]

Do you have sources for this information? I know Trump was impeached and a lot was said about that, but the actual impeachment charge seemed to be about something different.

I get it. One can wallow in the NYT or the HuffPost or Fox or OAN and hear all sorts of things. That's a big part of how we got where we are right now in terms of divisiveness. You read the Steele thing and you just cringe that people actually believed it. The other side claims there's a laptop that proves Hunter Biden was taking money from China, Ukraine and probably Tuvalu as well, and some porn movies to boot.

It's a horrible rabbit hole to get stuck in. Just remember that all they want is clicks. And they don't get clicks unless they work you up into a frenzy of hate. We get the politicians we deserve.

On December 3, 2019, as part of the impeachment inquiry, the House Intelligence Committee (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Permanent_Select_Committee_on_Intelligence) published a 300-page report detailing that "the impeachment inquiry has found that President Trump, personally and acting through agents within and outside of the U.S. government, solicited the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, to benefit his reelection. In furtherance of this scheme, President Trump conditioned official acts on a public announcement by the new Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of politically-motivated investigations, including one into Joe Biden, one of Trump's domestic political opponents. In pressuring President Zelenskyy to carry out his demand, President Trump withheld a White House meeting desperately sought by the Ukrainian President, and critical U.S. military assistance to fight Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass)."<sup id="cite_ref-Intel-Report_22-0" class="reference">[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal#cite_note-Intel-Report-22)</sup><sup class="reference nowrap">: 8 </sup> In January 2020, the Government Accountability Office (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Accountability_Office), a non-partisan watchdog, concluded that the White House broke federal law by withholding Congress-approved military aid to Ukraine.<sup id="cite_ref-NYT-Cochrane_23-0" class="reference">[23] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal#cite_note-NYT-Cochrane-23)</sup>

[cuervo72]

China was always going to be the key and if they are sincere that is huge. Apparently no limits has limits after all.

Well, China probably sees an opportunity to get a foothold. Especially if Ukraine is not going to join NATO. Give help with the rebuild with plenty of strings attached, just like everywhere else in Belt and Road. They see an investment opportunity.

[GrantDawg]

China is going to play both sides. They are going to get as much out of Russia as they can without jeopardizing their income from the West.

[flere-imsaho]

You read the Steele thing and you just cringe that people actually believed it.

Yeah, that crazy Steele report. I mean, nothing in that was believable, right? Even the stuff that ended up being corroborated? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steele_dossier#Veracity_and_corroboration_status_of_specific_allegations)

[Edward64]

China is going to play both sides. They are going to get as much out of Russia as they can without jeopardizing their income from the West.

I agree with this. That's why the ambassador statement seems out of norm, they do seem to be taking Ukraine's side. I'll wait for verification or a "clarification" from China.

[Qwikshot]

I think it's more simple than that. China is supportive because the West will provide aid to Ukraine and that money then can be co-opted by China.

Russia will barely be able to afford anything and will be in sanction hell for a long time. Even if they conquer Ukraine they will not provide any aid or support to it, they won't have funds to do so.

China is a profiteer.

[BYU 14]

Well, China probably sees an opportunity to get a foothold. Especially if Ukraine is not going to join NATO. Give help with the rebuild with plenty of strings attached, just like everywhere else in Belt and Road. They see an investment opportunity.

Oh 100%, China only does what ultimately benefits China and they are masters at the long game. Ukraine will be indebted to them and the US will probably do some back door brokering as well, but this is one case where playing with the Snake may at least have the benefit of keeping Putin in check and is probably the best option for avoiding what could grow into a horrific conflict.

[albionmoonlight]

and they are masters at the long game.

Yeah. This is a gross generalization, but the West just does not think at the time scale the Chinese do.

[PilotMan]

Yeah. This is a gross generalization, but the West just does not think at the time scale the Chinese do.

I'll have "Things autocracies can do because of a single, monolithic political party, for $500, Alex"

[RainMaker]

I don't think China is playing 4D chess or anything. They just see where the wind is blowing. They likely have good information on where Russia stands and feels this is going to end up going Ukraine's way.

I do hope that money gets confiscated from the oligarchs and is used to rebuild Ukraine. The country seems to be in shambles.

[RainMaker]

On December 3, 2019, as part of the impeachment inquiry, the House Intelligence Committee (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Permanent_Select_Committee_on_Intelligence) published a 300-page report detailing that "the impeachment inquiry has found that President Trump, personally and acting through agents within and outside of the U.S. government, solicited the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, to benefit his reelection. In furtherance of this scheme, President Trump conditioned official acts on a public announcement by the new Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of politically-motivated investigations, including one into Joe Biden, one of Trump's domestic political opponents. In pressuring President Zelenskyy to carry out his demand, President Trump withheld a White House meeting desperately sought by the Ukrainian President, and critical U.S. military assistance to fight Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass)."<sup id="cite_ref-Intel-Report_22-0" class="reference">[22] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal#cite_note-Intel-Report-22)</sup><sup class="reference nowrap">: 8 </sup> In January 2020, the Government Accountability Office (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_Accountability_Office), a non-partisan watchdog, concluded that the White House broke federal law by withholding Congress-approved military aid to Ukraine.<sup id="cite_ref-NYT-Cochrane_23-0" class="reference">[23] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump%E2%80%93Ukraine_scandal#cite_note-NYT-Cochrane-23)</sup>

People forget how much money was being pumped into people close to the President. It went well beyond Gates and Manafort. Russia has wanted control of Ukraine for awhile and the removal of sanctions against some of their wealthy oligarchs.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">DC-based lobbyists and lawyers have earned nearly $50 million since 2014 by representing high-level Russian clients linked to the Kremlin <a href="https://t.co/xGALyuuQ9i">https://t.co/xGALyuuQ9i</a></p>&mdash; Judd Legum (@JuddLegum) <a href="https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1504137825855410178?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[JPhillips]

Damn. US estimates say the Russians have lost more soldiers in 20 days than the US did in the 36 days of the Iwo Jima campaign.

[Flasch186]

I still think when the videos and photos come out of the sieged city's we're going to have a real moral dilemma. I think that's when, if this thing isn't over by then, we're going to have to go in. Humanitarian or whatever but we're not willing to stomach images that harken back to the holocaust again. That's when things are going to get really scary and I think one needs to be prepared for worst case scenarios. I think it's coming. Boots on the ground under NATO labeling and for humanitarian purposes but I think its inevitable if we don't get this to an end maybe by this weekend.

[JPhillips]

Things look really bleak in Russia.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ominous words from Putin about a “natural and necessary cleansing of the nation” to “spit out like flies” all representatives of a fifth column and “traitors” who do not back the Kremlin line. No wonder thousands are leaving the country in fear. <a href="https://t.co/66LGpo12p3">pic.twitter.com/66LGpo12p3</a></p>&mdash; Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) <a href="https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1504134285401415681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Edward64]

US providing drones. Based on the description, they are like shorter distance cruise missile. If supplied in enough quantity and with intel to tell what to target, I can see this really making a difference.

On the third bolded re: US training remotely ... it may be the trainers somewhere in NATO land doing all the work.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-16-22/h_97b2764df30f3cc9b05194be9deacd17
President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday additional US assistance to Ukraine including drones, and two sources familiar with the matter tell CNN that, specifically, the US will be providing Switchblade drones, which are small, portable so-called kamikaze or suicide drones that carry a warhead and detonate on impact.

The Switchblade 300 and the larger Switchblade 600 are produced by AeroVironment.

The smaller Switchblade 300 can hit a target up to 6 miles away, according to specifications provided by the company, while the larger Switchblade 600 can strike more than 20 miles away. Both systems can be set up and launched within minutes.

CNN reported earlier today that the Switchblade drones were on Ukraine’s wish list of requested military and technological assistance they are still requesting to share with the US government, according to two sources familiar with the list.

These weapons were added to the list after the Ukrainians consulted with congressional partners over the weekend on a draft of the list. The US would have to provide training for the Ukrainian troops if the US gives them those weapons, but the sources familiar with the list said that could be done remotely.

[Flasch186]

Sounds like Hitler using those words.

I&rsquo;m afraid we&rsquo;re going to be stepping up sooner rather than later


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Someone here early on wondered about lack of combat videos? A fair number has come out from what I've noticed.

It is morbidly fascinating. There was one today with a Russian Z tank getting hit 3 times with anti-tank. Third time ignited something and it really blew. Footage of Russian on the ground crawling.

I think I'll stop clicking on those video links and just stick with photos.

[Edward64]

More info on what we are sending over with the $800M bill

Biden announces $800 million in new military aid to Ukraine (https://www.axios.com/biden-military-aid-ukraine-drones-f268bb50-6dbe-4efa-a762-eb4560a4f563.html)
Details: The U.S. will directly transfer the following equipment to the Ukrainian military as part of the latest package, according to a White House fact sheet:

800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems
2,000 Javelin anti-armor missiles
1,000 light anti-armor weapons
6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems
100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (armed drones)
7,000 small arms for both military and civilian use (100 grenade launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns and 400 shotguns)
Over 20 million rounds of ammunition
25,000 sets of body armor
25,000 helmets

[BYU 14]

Part of what is annoying about that to me is that my son went on one deployment with body armor that was 2 years past its life cycle. Where the fuck were those then?

[RainMaker]

Someone here early on wondered about lack of combat videos? A fair number has come out from what I've noticed.

It is morbidly fascinating. There was one today with a Russian Z tank getting hit 3 times with anti-tank. Third time ignited something and it really blew. Footage of Russian on the ground crawling.

I think I'll stop clicking on those video links and just stick with photos.

There are a ton on Telegram. We are used to seeing stuff on more popular social media, but they can't use it because those companies will sell the data to the Russians. So Telegram has been the place where most 9f the crazy videos are posted if anyone is interested.

[PilotMan]

We wonder how Russian citizens can continue to support the war and how they can just 'go along' with the propaganda, but if the US had invaded Mexico under the guise of cleansing the area of drugs and criminals and the creation of an 'immigration buffer' that no matter the processes involved there would be a solid chunk of people here who felt that Mexico had it coming and that they had no reason to fight back since we were simply making it better for them and saving lives. There's plenty now who are willingly supporting Russian propaganda in the US, so it's not really unexpected and should be noted for future discussion.

[GrantDawg]

We wonder how Russian citizens can continue to support the war and how they can just 'go along' with the propaganda, but if the US had invaded Mexico under the guise of cleansing the area of drugs and criminals and the creation of an 'immigration buffer' that no matter the processes involved there would be a solid chunk of people here who felt that Mexico had it coming and that they had no reason to fight back since we were simply making it better for them and saving lives. There's plenty now who are willingly supporting Russian propaganda in the US, so it's not really unexpected and should be noted for future discussion.
That is absolutely true. Of course there would be huge protest, but they could easily ramp up the propaganda to give well over 50% support for an invasion. Heck, a "should the US military invade Mexico to secure the border and stop drugs and terrorist entering the country?" could probably hit close to 40% now.
People are pretty cavalier with their attitude toward use of force in general. It is mainly because there has been very little direct consequences at home. 9/11 was the biggest, but it was more an indirect consequence and most people don't really tie that to our use of the military. That may change if we do end up engaging Russia. There is no chance Russia could full on invade the US. They definitely could strike into the mainland with cruise missiles and long range bombers. Their navy is not that much of a threat, except they do have a large number of nuclear subs. I imagine they could hit almost anywhere in the US with sub launched cruise missiles. Of course, that is taking the Nukes out of it, but that may be wishful thinking that they would not use them.

[JPhillips]

Things look really bleak in Russia.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ominous words from Putin about a “natural and necessary cleansing of the nation” to “spit out like flies” all representatives of a fifth column and “traitors” who do not back the Kremlin line. No wonder thousands are leaving the country in fear. <a href="https://t.co/66LGpo12p3">pic.twitter.com/66LGpo12p3</a></p>&mdash; Matthew Luxmoore (@mjluxmoore) <a href="https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1504134285401415681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 16, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Airline trackers showed a number of private jets taking a one-way trip from Moscow to Dubai today.

[Flasch186]

PM is almost like we can see seeds of it here in the states.

E - I don&rsquo;t mean in some hard to find social network, I&rsquo;m talking on the news on Facebook in the msm

Then we&rsquo;re in trouble


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sterlingice]

Part of what is annoying about that to me is that my son went on one deployment with body armor that was 2 years past its life cycle. Where the fuck were those then?

What's to say we're not sending them the same exact used body armor he wore years ago and having Raytheon or Northrup Grumman or whoever writing it off :P

SI

[PilotMan]

At the very least, we're at the start of a new arms race and cold war.

The American ""western" propaganda needs to ramp up again in all honesty. Unity of of the democracies around the world, vocal peace protests, and further isolation of states that continue to support the oppressive Russian tactics and regime need to be ferreted out.

As for what actions are ultimately needed, Europe needs to take the lead, front and center. This shouldn't be US v Russia it should be all of western civilizations against Russia and with it in their own backyard, and the greater threats posed to smaller countries and countries who are not currently aligned with Europe, now is the time to fortify those bonds and be prepared to lean in to supporting those choices. You can still lead and empower at the same time.

[BYU 14]

What's to say we're not sending them the same exact used body armor he wore years ago and having Raytheon or Northrup Grumman or whoever writing it off :P

SI

We could very well be, the point being let's take care of our military, because the line was, they didn't have enough of a supply, good or bad.

[RainMaker]

These are kind of cool.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/17/switchblade-drones-ukraine-russia-biden-war/

[RainMaker]

When this is over, we better be trying people for war crimes.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“My brother Jimmy Hill was killed yesterday in Chernihiv, Ukraine. He was waiting in a bread line with several other people when they were gunned down” by Russian military forces, his sister, Cheryl Hill Gordon, wrote on Facebook. <a href="https://t.co/y78wJfora1">https://t.co/y78wJfora1</a></p>&mdash; Jonathan Landay (@JonathanLanday) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonathanLanday/status/1504564488816766982?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[PilotMan]

These are kind of cool.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/17/switchblade-drones-ukraine-russia-biden-war/

I'm a commercial drone pilot in addition to being a pilot. These things terrify me. I mean, my biggest fear are the autonomous, or semi-autonomous, because once we have cheap killer drones, war will never end. Terrorism will never end. It's too cheap to send drones to fight wars when you don't need to commit human lives to do it. A squadron of attack drones, working in unison could feasibly wipe out selected targets spread across an area, and they are use and lose weapons, and not high enough tech to worry about losing. It's terrifying.

[Groundhog]

I'm a commercial drone pilot in addition to being a pilot. These things terrify me. I mean, my biggest fear are the autonomous, or semi-autonomous, because once we have cheap killer drones, war will never end. Terrorism will never end. It's too cheap to send drones to fight wars when you don't need to commit human lives to do it. A squadron of attack drones, working in unison could feasibly wipe out selected targets spread across an area, and they are use and lose weapons, and not high enough tech to worry about losing. It's terrifying.


There's a Philip K Dick short story I read a long time ago (can't remember the name or which anthology it was in) about humans having to live underground because of these war drones that are hunting humans to extinction long after the war has ended... crazy to think of how close we are to that, I'm guessing landmines were the inspiration to PKD, yet here we are so close to the terrifying thing he created in his mind.

[flere-imsaho]

Part of what is annoying about that to me is that my son went on one deployment with body armor that was 2 years past its life cycle. Where the fuck were those then?

Or, when my brother deployed to Iraq in 2005, lacking reasonable body armor, sufficient ammunition, up-armored humvees, lubricant for gun turrets, maintenance parts for vehicles, etc....

We spend all this money on the military and where, exactly, is it going?

[bhlloy]

There's a Philip K Dick short story I read a long time ago (can't remember the name or which anthology it was in) about humans having to live underground because of these war drones that are hunting humans to extinction long after the war has ended... crazy to think of how close we are to that, I'm guessing landmines were the inspiration to PKD, yet here we are so close to the terrifying thing he created in his mind.

There’s a black mirror episode with a similar concept. Doesn’t feel like it’s futuristic fiction any more does it.

[sterlingice]

Or, when my brother deployed to Iraq in 2005, lacking reasonable body armor, sufficient ammunition, up-armored humvees, lubricant for gun turrets, maintenance parts for vehicles, etc....

We spend all this money on the military and where, exactly, is it going?

You mean military contractors screw us? Never. /shocked face/

We have our own pseudo-oligarchs here, we just call them corporations.

SI

[Edward64]

3 weeks since the war started. Seems much longer than that.

[sabotai]

I'm a commercial drone pilot in addition to being a pilot. These things terrify me. I mean, my biggest fear are the autonomous, or semi-autonomous, because once we have cheap killer drones, war will never end. Terrorism will never end. It's too cheap to send drones to fight wars when you don't need to commit human lives to do it. A squadron of attack drones, working in unison could feasibly wipe out selected targets spread across an area, and they are use and lose weapons, and not high enough tech to worry about losing. It's terrifying.

One day we'll move on to mathematical weapons and disintegration chambers. Then war will be civilized.

[PilotMan]

One day we'll move on to mathematical weapons and disintegration chambers. Then war will be civilized.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/s8-I9nRAnDk" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>

That took a full on google search to pull off. Nice deep take.

[Groundhog]

That's definitely an episode that has stuck with me ever since I first saw it.

[MIJB#19]

As for what actions are ultimately needed, Europe needs to take the lead, front and center. This shouldn't be US v Russia it should be all of western civilizations against Russia and with it in their own backyard, and the greater threats posed to smaller countries and countries who are not currently aligned with Europe, now is the time to fortify those bonds and be prepared to lean in to supporting those choices. You can still lead and empower at the same time.What entity in this context to you would be "Europe"?

[PilotMan]

What entity in this context to you would be "Europe"?

Ideally, it's less of an existing entity, and more of a collective of the willing, like we saw when the world through down Saddam the first time. Recognition of the current state of affairs, decisions on the level of threat that is faced and a determination on what the best course based on acceptable outcomes. I'd give as much leeway as countries were willing to accept. From we're good, this is ok, all the way to we're willing to reject this threat in the most aggressive way possible. It really needs to be a look in the mirror moment, but from the US perspective we should be ready to accept a wide array of decisions without unduly influencing or exacerbating, and let the chips fall.

Because it's not the UN, NATO isn't entirely represented, the EU isn't a military structure, and so on, so ideally it's through individual diplomacy, but lead by those countries as opposed to the USA.

[MIJB#19]

Ideally, it's less of an existing entity, and more of a collective of the willing, like we saw when the world through down Saddam the first time. Recognition of the current state of affairs, decisions on the level of threat that is faced and a determination on what the best course based on acceptable outcomes. I'd give as much leeway as countries were willing to accept. From we're good, this is ok, all the way to we're willing to reject this threat in the most aggressive way possible. It really needs to be a look in the mirror moment, but from the US perspective we should be ready to accept a wide array of decisions without unduly influencing or exacerbating, and let the chips fall.

Because it's not the UN, NATO isn't entirely represented, the EU isn't a military structure, and so on, so ideally it's through individual diplomacy, but lead by those countries as opposed to the USA.Which is exactly the complicated part and why I don't see it happening. The EU is by no means a "union" on this and basically has no say in this anyway. Everybody has demands, but nobody is the true leader. Macron/France tried and failed to keep Putin from making this move. The UK and Russia are not on speaking terms. The European leaders will look around to each other and think: what will big brother the USA do?

[PilotMan]

Ultimately not making a decision is making a decision. The US was in Afghanistan for 20 years and they had opportunity after opportunity to get the country on their side. Ultimately the people couldn't find a way to say no to the Taliban so they get the leadership and the country they deserve. If they cannot come to a consensus yet, then that is a decision, and the faster they move on and work on what the next phase of whatever comes next the better. At some point though, something would get bad enough that a different choice would be made, until then however that is the choice and the US really shouldn't get caught up in another thing where they aren't in the overwhelming majority.

[RainMaker]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sergey Lavrov, during an English-language interview on RT, says that &quot;only Fox News is trying to represent some alternative points of view&quot; while calling the rest of the US press propaganda because &quot;there is no such thing as an independent Western media.&quot; <a href="https://t.co/0kNIHZy0uv">pic.twitter.com/0kNIHZy0uv</a></p>&mdash; Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) <a href="https://twitter.com/justinbaragona/status/1504812959566077984?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 18, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Brian Swartz]

For Europe to take the lead they need to form a body politic of some sort which allows for one entity/leader to make 'foreign policy' decisions for them. That's not happening anytime soon. Even in the first Gulf War as referenced it wasn't really a collective of the willing, it was the US getting other nations to follow them. Yes there were dozens of nations involved but the US had almost three-quarters of the manpower involved, and I think it's highly unlikely the other nations would have made the commitments they did without that being the case.

I'm not aware of any examples of a successful 'collective of the willing', there's always a superpower leading the way. As the saying goes, there's a price you pay for being rich, free, and alive at the same time. I think part of the reason the EU is what it is, is because they don't *want* that responsibility. Obviously there is a point at which that would no longer be the case if things get bad enough, but do we really want to wait long enough for to happen? There's never been a united Europe aside from dictators, and while I hope it happens there's very natural resistance to it.

[PilotMan]

If the agreement is in the form of isolation and sanctions then that is what the path is. Whether or not it's enough is rather irrelevant, it is the choice. Every day the question on whether it's the right choice should be asked, and until it's not the right answer, then it is the right one. It's not doing nothing, it's just all that you're determined to do right now. The US can cheer and encourage from the background all dya, and say this is who we are and what we should be protecting, but until you've got people who agree with you and support that then you do everything else.

[Solecismic]

Seems like a big ask when the EU alone has 24 official languages and the most-spoken language (either as native or secondary) only unites about a quarter of the population.

The trend is still to split countries over ethnic differences. There are independent countries that make Rhode Island look vast and have the population of a small town.

The prospect of building a real military is so daunting that only countries that have recently been at war can do all that much. There's a guideline that a percentage of GDP should be spent on defense in the EU, but that's just a guideline.

The EU is essentially a trade alliance plus. Asking a central body to take more responsibility, including sending young people to war and demanding support for something people might feel strongly against... that's a major change from how things are done. Already, the UK has left the EU because its people (pretty much evenly divided) were frustrated over being bound by economic decisions made by bureaucrats who had no real ties to the UK.

It's hard to build a centralized anything. What happened with the US is unique - an ideal geography, an intricate relationship between states and union, a "We the People" approach that has never been shared in all that many places. And still, our president was going to stay out of WWII until Pearl Harbor was attacked.

The amount of anger toward Russia over this senseless attack is beyond anything we've seen before. It took years and far more atrocities before even Hitler generated that kind of anger. That's the power of the internet and other technologies. And still, only about half the world even opposes what Putin is doing.

That doesn't necessarily include all NATO countries. Turkey is part of NATO and initially signaled it would not allow Russian ships to travel into the Black Sea. Yet Japan reports ships carrying obvious war vehicles and supplies are traveling along a route that doesn't make a whole lot of sense unless it's headed in that direction. We talk about Article 5 like it's a given every NATO nation would instantly move, as required by the treaty. I'm not sure even that is possible, let alone a united Europe.

The US has a supposed treaty with the Philippines that its president has openly announced isn't worth the paper it's printed upon.

There is no easy answer to this type of aggression, only a hope that more and more people embrace a democratic approach that makes it almost impossible to support being the aggressor. And that's no given, either. When the US went into Iraq, supported by quite a few countries, that ended up spending a lot of good will toward this approach.

We were living in a time of unprecedented peace. That may have ended, but it will be nearly impossible to create some sort of world order to get it back on track. It will require a combination of diplomacy and resolve that I'm not sure exists today, though Zelensky himself is inspiring.

[Thomkal]

Another Ukraine charity bundle this one from Hundle Bundle-games, comics, roleplaying books, game dev assets


https://www.humblebundle.com/stand-with-ukraine-bundle?utm_content=cta_button&mcID=102:623389039de6db6f5c77bb16:ot:5a303044c438005fac39394b:1&linkID=62338904db446b3b943fa319&utm_campaign=2022_03_18_ukrainecharitybundle_bundle&utm_source=Humble+Bundle+Newsletter&utm_medium=email

[RainMaker]

I'm a commercial drone pilot in addition to being a pilot. These things terrify me. I mean, my biggest fear are the autonomous, or semi-autonomous, because once we have cheap killer drones, war will never end. Terrorism will never end. It's too cheap to send drones to fight wars when you don't need to commit human lives to do it. A squadron of attack drones, working in unison could feasibly wipe out selected targets spread across an area, and they are use and lose weapons, and not high enough tech to worry about losing. It's terrifying.

Agree that they're terrifying. But we've been doing the neverending war stuff well before weapons like this were available.

I feel like technology like this helps level the playing field. Similar to how MANPADS and Javelinss have leveled the playing field. Maybe gives pause to countries before starting wars. The alternative is that a handful of rich countries get to decimate poor countries with no recourse.

[RainMaker]

It's hard to build a centralized anything. What happened with the US is unique - an ideal geography, an intricate relationship between states and union, a "We the People" approach that has never been shared in all that many places. And still, our president was going to stay out of WWII until Pearl Harbor was attacked.

I agree with this. Europe is incredibly diverse and each country has different motivations and risks.

Eastern Europe relies heavily on Russia for energy and can't afford to sanction it. Some neighboring countries are threatened due to their proximity to Russia and want to be either more aggressive or cautious. The UK has opened it's arms to financial criminals and money launderers over the years and doesn't want to upset certain wealthy individuals.

I don't really know how they could get on the same page. It would likely take an event that threatens all of them in a major way (nuclear weapon use for instance).

[albionmoonlight]

How Russia's war against Ukraine could make the chip shortage worse - Vox (https://www.vox.com/recode/22983468/neon-shortage-chips-semiconductors-russia-ukraine)

I guess this could go in the Biden thread, too. But I'm wondering about whether companies/countries will start trying to diversify supplies of critical materials going forward.

On the one hand, that's not efficient. One of the whole points of free trade is that stuff gets produced in the places that it is cheapest to produce it and consumed in the places willing to pay the most to consume it. You could grow oranges in a hothouse in Canada, but that will never be as efficient as growing them all in Florida/Brazil/etc.

But this conflict has shown that the whole system depends on global peace.

So when/if Putin's invasion ends (however that happens), it could be a chance for companies to reconsider global supply chains and think things like "We need [X] product to function. 100% of our supply comes from country [Y]. We should start buying some of it from [Z] b/c it is on the other side of the world from [Y]."

The problem, though, is that if 100% of the supply comes from [Y], that's probably b/c [Y] is the cheapest place to make it. And the shareholders won't care that paying a little extra to get some from [Z] is for the long term good of the company (and they certainly won't care that it is for the good of the country or world). So, just like with levees in New Orleans or voting machines in Florida or any of thousands of examples, the market will choose saving/making money in the short term over disaster prevention or stability in the long term.

And the only way around that would seem to be government requirements of diversity of supplies, which is (rightly) a non-starter b/c state controlled economies basically suck (And for all that the talking heads love to brand anyone left of Reagan as a "communist" or "socialist," this country is (rightly, IMO) very pro-capitalist and the vast vast majority of even very left-wing folks here are nowhere close to being actually pro-communist or pro-socialist.

And, yes, we've seen a rash of "private companies are barred from requiring masks" laws. But those, IMO, seem to be more a function of COVID hysteria than part of a larger pro-communist/socialist/state-control movement by the GOP.).

tl;dr these supply chain problems will happen with every global conflict b/c they reflect good market sense.

[GrantDawg]

I know the whole "government shouldn't pick winners " thing, but it really might be in our best interest to subsidize certain critical products to make it more cost effective to produce in country. Computer chips for one.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[GrantDawg]

It is interesting that Russia used a hyper-sonic missile for a general bombing. These are supposed to be the glory of both the Russian and Chinese arsenal. It is something the US haven't developed. The strike was supposed to be a warning to NATO and instead was met with a "meh." The damage was no more extensive than a standard cruise missile, and NATO was able to track it the whole way which wasn't supposed to happen.


Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

A thought occurred to me. I sure hope the Stingers and Javelins have some sort of plan obsolescence built in so "stolen" ones can't be used against us in the future.

[Solecismic]

I know the whole "government shouldn't pick winners " thing, but it really might be in our best interest to subsidize certain critical products to make it more cost effective to produce in country. Computer chips for one.


We've been content for generations to allow the government to pick winners, though. The winners are those who can put together import mechanisms at the scale necessary to make that cost-effective.

It is not cost-effective to manufacture most goods in the US or Europe. Most of that is because of labor cost. We are happy to wear clothes made by cheap labor or drive cars or use smart phones made with materials mined or otherwise constructed using cheap labor. In many instances, this might even be slave labor.

In the '80s, it was the auto manufacturing industry getting the headlines for those practices - that was the beginning of the realization that our protection of individual rights had a cost (note: please don't take that to mean I think that was a mistake - it's a lot more complicated than that). More recently, it's about mining and energy production.

A lot would have to happen to bring back energy and materials security - to take those functions back from countries that do not see individual human rights the same way we do. This isn't an "oh, it sucks to pay $4 per gallon rather than $2 per gallon" issue, it's a security issue.

If we did that with manufacturing, we'd end up in trade/tariff wars that would further destabilize the world. China has become immensely wealthy very quickly building all this stuff cheaply. It would also be essentially an isolationist policy that would quickly bring even more harm to our own economy.

It all comes back to "what is a government" and why. What did the US get right that allowed such rapid advancement? We see what China has done right more recently, becoming the world's producers.

So what did we get right? I think it's the "we the people" concept, and essentially the implementation of laissez-faire economics. We refused to accept monarchy or dictatorship or a dear leader and we let individuals do their own thing as long as it didn't prevent other individuals from doing their own thing. We developed a complex form of government whose role was as limited as possible. We have a judicial system wedded to the idea that any restriction must be "narrowly tailored" to address a specific goal.

This system of checks and balances is supposed to give us the ability to react quickly (the House, budgeting, certain executive functions of the President) without losing the big picture and moving as slowly as possible (the Senate, the courts).

What did we get wrong? The obvious is the slavery issue. It's uncomfortable to talk about because that's so intensely personal to so many Americans today. I don't want to try, which doesn't mean I don't think about it and worry that getting past that is an unsolvable problem.

And now, I think we're getting it wrong with security. Aside from the "we the people" concept that a government creates an environment where individuals are free to pursue their own dreams, we have to have a defense. So we need concepts like an army for the outside, police for the inside - physical security. We need schools so that our children can learn enough to join us and pursue their own dreams - call it dream security, for lack of a better term. And we need energy security so that our army has the tools it needs to defend us and we have the best possible environment to maintain our standards of living.

So, what do we need to do to ensure we have that security? Unfortunately, continue the "arms race" ensuring mutual destruction. We might "meh" about the damage caused by a hypersonic missile with a conventional load, but we should note that the true value of this missile is evading defenses designed to prevent a missile with a nuclear load from hitting a target. It's a big concern if we want a world where no one thinks they can win anything by going nuclear. We need to keep upgrading and maintaining our military. And for those sensitive concepts, that means we need to keep mining many materials. Our current technology won't continue to work if we lose those supplies mined by countries that aren't necessarily our friends.

And we also need a reliable power grid, which means, for now, we need to keep drilling and adding capacity and pipelines and trains to move it around more safely and efficiently. That doesn't mean we forget that everything will work better if we stop burning fuel for energy, but for now, it's the only way to meet our needs. Getting Venezuela, Iran or even Saudi Arabia on our side not only isn't possible, but is still a short-term solution to a long-term problem. China and Russia sure won't stop adding capacity, why should we become more and more reliant? Europe is in more immediate danger because they are further down that path.

[Hammer]

I wonder if perhaps its easier for an outsider to see what is going wrong in other cultures. From the outside looking in, maybe it's possible to zoom out. I come from the UK, and I know we have our fair share of problems. I have built a large number of friendships with Americans playing FOF over the years. So don't take this as a put down, but looking at America here is what I see...

Other countries look at the past 80 years and they hold grudges. Many fear America or are wary, exactly in the same way many fear or are wary of China and/or Russia. The history of conflict over the years doesn't always seem to fit within the good vs evil narrative.

I see respect paid to those 2,000 who died in pearl harbour from my American friends. Yet it seems nukes being dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki causing deaths, suffering and destruction to hundreds of thousands women and children is swept under the carpet. Dismissed as being down to "end the war" on an already beaten Japanese force. Putin could say he is trying to end the war right now, by bombing civilians in a more measure manor. We accuse Putin of war crimes?

Numerous wars there after right up until modern times. Honestly it seems the motives are questionable in many instances. I have no idea how neutral your media is, in the UK ours love to spin the good versus evil narrative. But clearly there are shades of grey. We are told the Russian military is attacking civilians, but we all know they could flatten cities in a heartbeat or use chemical weapons if they so desired. They are holding back. Invasions seems to happen when it suits us. It didn't seem to bother us a whole lot when close to a million were slaughtered slowly but surely in Rwanda by forces we could of stopped easily. We did nothing.

I would also ask how as a nation you would feel if Russia and it's forces set up shop on your border. Cuban missile crisis? NATO forces are doing exactly that in ex Russian states such as Latvia and Lithuania. They trust us as much as we trust them. What would the U.S. do if a joint Chinese/Russian force set up in Mexico?

I think the pride and sense of righteousness people have in their own countries is usually detrimental. It really clouds being able to exercise an ability to see situations clearly for what they are.

All that said of course what is happening in Ukraine is evil and wrong. But black and white? Probably not.

[MrBug708]

I see respect paid to those 2,000 who died in pearl harbour from my American friends. Yet it seems nukes being dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki causing deaths, suffering and destruction to hundreds of thousands women and children is swept under the carpet. Dismissed as being down to "end the war" on an already beaten Japanese force. Putin could say he is trying to end the war right now, by bombing civilians in a more measure manor. We accuse Putin of war crimes?


This is a pretty big "Yikes" comparison.

[JPhillips]

Yeah. We can't admit the US has done some morally objectionable things without then excusing that behavior from the Russians.

[Qwikshot]

This is a pretty big "Yikes" comparison.

I think comparing WW2 to what is happening now as a pretty bullshit comparison.

I'd argue that the Ukraine-Russian war is as unsound as US's intervention into Vietnam and probably the Iraqi invasion under Bush W. But I would also state that the US meritless claim of WMDs, still didn't discount that Iraq had in some ways become a haven for al-qaeda which did do the biggest terrorist attack on the West ever.

The nation building was bullshit. The Iraq war was to destabilize and intimidate Iran and control oil investment. Afghanistan at least had a more credible proof of hiding Bin Laden for a time and becoming his base of operations. If the US had had any success there it would have been a sphere of influence against Pakistan and Russia, but most experts would've told you how fruitless it was. And let's face, Afghanistan's collapse to the Taliban was probably what Putin was hoping for with Ukraine.

I don't think the Ukraine attacked any Russian locations. The real reason why Russia invaded was because they were more Western influenced and should they become a NATO member, it would have had the enemy in Putin's eyes right at the front door.

It was not a justifiable reason to invade.

There is no both sides argument here.

Russia is deliberately attacking civilians. They are sending Ukrainian women and children back to Russia.

As I said in an earlier post, I believe Russia will grind everything to dust if they can't have it for themselves (A very Trumpian notion). And they will use nuclear weapons if need be.

I don't think there are any exits now. They'll continue to commit war crimes and atrocities until there is no one left to resist, or the West will step in and we'll have a new world war.

But spare me the "U.S. is just as bad" bullshit.

[molson]

Putin could say he is trying to end the war right now, by bombing civilians in a more measure manor. We accuse Putin of war crimes?


Whatever hate boner you have for Americans, being pro-Putin is not a good response. But it does say anything anyone needed to know about you.


It didn't seem to bother us a whole lot when close to a million were slaughtered slowly but surely in Rwanda by forces we could of stopped easily.


I was bothered. You're not "bothered" by genocide? I realize it's not as entertaining as the British pastime of looking down at Americans and declaring their moral superiority at every opportunity.

I'm seeing more and more of this sentiment that it's somehow wrong for Americans to care about Ukraine because of things the American government did. It's frustrating, but not surprising.

[Solecismic]

I don't read pro-Putin. I see a lot I don't agree with and could try to discuss if it doesn't take us too far off-topic. But just because he's trying to discuss the grey areas within this issue doesn't make him pro-Putin.

No one should get blind support or blind condemnation. Sometimes, someone does something that is so far out-of-bounds that you can't think about the person without thinking about that act. I think Putin is at that level now. Hitler, Lenin, Stalin, Milosevic and Saddam Hussein were certainly there.

Putin's attack is absolutely brutal and far beyond what the US did in Iraq. In Mariupol, the goal is clearly to target civilians, reduce the civilian infrastructure to rubble, and send the people who haven't been able to flee because of the constant shelling to what hopefully isn't concentration camps, but looks like it might be something along those lines. The idea of grey areas also requires understanding the difference. That doesn't mean Bush was right to go into Iraq. I don't think he was. But our military was under orders not to target civilians and Russia is doing the opposite. I don't recall the UK refusing Bush - there were troops from quite a few countries.

Until Putin invaded Ukraine, he had the ability to open a reasonable line of discussion about Crimea and NATO. He had a legitimate beef regarding the Maidan rebellion. But reasonable people keep trying diplomacy - even sanctions on their end if no one is listening. Instead, Putin supported this long, pointless war in Eastern Ukraine for eight years, is still doing the same thing in Georgia, then lined up his troops and attacked the rest of Ukraine, where his only claims relate to a very limited historic context that just isn't true today and something everyone knows is false regarding Nazi control.

Now, all we will recall is that this butcher attacked an independent country and when his military couldn't seal the deal in the expected 72 hours, started trying to kill as many people as possible. I don't see this as an opportunity to bring Hiroshima and Nagasaki into the discussion. The Japanese might have been close to defeat, but they were still doing everything they could to prolong the war because surrender was not something that leadership would consider at that time. Not that we should be proud of the use of atom bombs, but I think if you had asked the numerous allies their take on that in the 1940s, you wouldn't have gotten "fear of the Americans" as a significant response.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm seeing more and more of this sentiment that it's somehow wrong for Americans to care about Ukraine because of things the American government did. It's frustrating, but not surprising.

I don't read it that way. It's not that it's wrong for us to care about Ukraine. It's that it's wrong for us to not care about other issues as much as we care about Ukraine. Not you individually or me individually, but us collectively as Americans/westerners.

It's not a case of whether we are 'bothered' by genocide in Rwanda, but a case of whether we do anything about it. Did it dominate the news, which is driven by viewer ratings, the way Ukraine does? Why is that? These are reasonable questions to ask.

I agree completely with Qwikshot (and pretty much the rest of the board) that it was not a justifiable reason to invade. At the same time you could call NATO 'closing in' a war by proxy, and we don't react with a ton of restraint when our interests are threatened. It's not as clear-cut as we pretend it is sometimes. There's nothing wrong with admitting that, and there's nothing pro-Putin about it.

[RainMaker]

Putin's attack is absolutely brutal and far beyond what the US did in Iraq.

No it isn't. It was called "shock and awe" for a reason.

[Edward64]

I see respect paid to those 2,000 who died in pearl harbour from my American friends. Yet it seems nukes being dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki causing deaths, suffering and destruction to hundreds of thousands women and children is swept under the carpet. Dismissed as being down to "end the war" on an already beaten Japanese force. Putin could say he is trying to end the war right now, by bombing civilians in a more measure manor. We accuse Putin of war crimes?

Re: War Crimes, it does get to the point of intent, degree, legality etc. AND who won the war. Lots of fair debate about this Debate over the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debate_over_the_atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki). But your point is taken, if the US lost the war to Japan, it would have been a "war crime".

I think Hiroshima was a no-brainer. I am troubled about Nagasaki which occurred 3 days later. We could have let Hiroshima sink in for a little while longer IMO but generally okay with it considering the outcome.

IMO, does nuking the Hiroshima to explicitly to stop a war AND to stop the other country's war crimes for the greater good (talk to the civilians of China, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore etc.). Yes.

It didn't seem to bother us a whole lot when close to a million were slaughtered slowly but surely in Rwanda by forces we could of stopped easily. We did nothing.

This happened after Mogadishu fiasco (93) vs Rawanda genocide (94). So no doubt that factored into the decision. Good news is we did intervene in Bosnia (95) to end that. So honestly, think this is a cheap shot at the US.

I think we've found out that wars can't be "stopped easily".

All that said of course what is happening in Ukraine is evil and wrong. But black and white? Probably not.

There is definitely grey for sure but the difference is Russia had other options than invading, the US didn't have an alternative in Japan after Pearl Harbor.

[Groundhog]

This happened after Mogadishu fiasco (93) vs Rawanda genocide (94). So no doubt that factored into the decision. Good news is we did intervene in Bosnia (95) to end that. So honestly, think this is a cheap shot at the US.



One of the big differences is which continent those two countries are on though.


There is definitely grey for sure but the difference is Russia had other options than invading, the US didn't have an alternative in Japan after Pearl Harbor.


I really don't want to weigh in on the Hiroshima argument, I've talked about it to death IRL. But the other question that tends to get left out of that narrative is; why did Japan bomb Pearl Harbor? The years leading up to both Pearl Harbor and Hiroshima are not black and white either.

[Edward64]

One of the big differences is which continent those two countries are on though.

Mogadishu Somalia is in Africa. We had every good intentions and then it went awry. No real strategic advantage, it was for humanitarian reasons.

I really don't want to weigh in on the Hiroshima argument, I've talked about it to death IRL. But the other question that tends to get left out of that narrative is; why did Japan bomb Pearl Harbor? The years leading up to both Pearl Harbor and Hiroshima are not black and white either.

It's that darn liquid goal and also to prevent a US response to Japanese manifest destiny goals.

[JPhillips]

Good lord.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Komsomolskaya Pravda, the pro-Kremlin tabloid, says that according to Russian ministry of defense numbers, 9,861 Russian soldiers died in Ukraine and 16,153 were injured. The last official Russian KIA figure, on March 2, was 498. Fascinating that someone posted the leaked number. <a href="https://t.co/LHrBWIQ49z">pic.twitter.com/LHrBWIQ49z</a></p>&mdash; Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) <a href="https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1505972650786672648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[sterlingice]

Those numbers aren't that far off from the official Ukrainian numbers that are published daily

The Kyiv Independent on Twitter: "These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s losses as of March 21, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.… " (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1505825184699359232)

SI

[NobodyHere]

I just learned today that Russia and Japan never declared peace after WW2 and still are technically still at war.

[Edward64]

I would have hoped NATO would have told Putin that use of chemical weapons is a redline for them. Biden may have some intel that prompted Biden to speak out but who knows.

Also Biden warning of cyber attacks. Isn't that already a given?

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-21/biden-says-putin-is-weighing-use-of-chemical-weapons-in-ukraine
Russia's false accusations that Kyiv has biological and chemical weapons illustrate that Russian President Vladimir Putin is considering using them himself in his war against Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday, without citing evidence.

Putin's "back is against the wall and now he's talking about new false flags he's setting up including, asserting that we in America have biological as well as chemical weapons in Europe, simply not true," Biden said at a Business Roundtable event.

"They are also suggesting that Ukraine has biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. That's a clear sign he's considering using both of those."

[thesloppy]

My work's parent company (Expeditors) has been under cyber attack for like a month now. They're a massive global logistics company, and I am curious if there is any kind of international/Russian connection, but they're not exactly announcing the details.

[CrimsonFox]

i mean basically anything putin says ukraine is doing, he does....same with trump and all reps really

[CrimsonFox]

I just learned today that Russia and Japan never declared peace after WW2 and still are technically still at war.

It's really just leaving bear poop on their doorstep and running at this point...but still...

[Edward64]

Yup, I think this is a good move. Ukraine will get EU membership which is best it can expect, and EU will be sympathetic in helping rebuild and also defend Ukraine in the future.

Don't know if this is enough face saving for Putin though.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-boris-johnson-business-europe-4b0fee549843a0a6ed73c314f8c2fa12
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Monday he was prepared to discuss a commitment from Ukraine not to seek NATO membership in exchange for a cease-fire, the withdrawal of Russian troops and a guarantee of Ukraine’s security.

“It’s a compromise for everyone: for the West, which doesn’t know what to do with us with regard to NATO, for Ukraine, which wants security guarantees, and for Russia, which doesn’t want further NATO expansion,” Zelenskyy said late Monday in an interview with Ukrainian television channels.

He also repeated his call for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Unless he meets with Putin, it is impossible to understand whether Russia even wants to stop the war, Zelenskyy said.

Zelenskyy said that Kyiv will be ready to discuss the status of Crimea and the eastern Donbas region held by Russian-backed separatists after a cease-fire and steps toward providing security guarantees.

[Edward64]

When this war winds down and things calm down, I can't imagine the quagmire it'll be for western world to start working with Russia again if Putin & cronies stay in power.

Politically. It'll be another cold war with China being a major factor.

Economically. Hey, we want to start selling Big Macs again, let's talk.

Socially. Believe majority of Russians support the invasion (at least in the beginning). There'll be a lot of defensiveness, acrimony etc. between neighbors, and friends & family.

[Qwikshot]

When this war winds down and things calm down, I can't imagine the quagmire it'll be for western world to start working with Russia again if Putin & cronies stay in power.

Politically. It'll be another cold war with China being a major factor.

Economically. Hey, we want to start selling Big Macs again, let's talk.

Socially. Believe majority of Russians support the invasion (at least in the beginning). There'll be a lot of defensiveness, acrimony etc. between neighbors, and friends & family.

Considering they lost about 10k in troops.

Word is that they are running low on troops number and are trying to recruit (I'm betting there aren't many takers).

Also their major tank facility shut down because of a lack of components.

The question for the West is that if there is a cease fire how fast do they get supplies and armaments to Ukraine to prevent a reoccurrence.

If Putin does pull back, how does he show strength? Does he plan to invade another country? If other nations pledge to join NATO does he attack again?

[Qwikshot]

How fast does he attempt to kill Zelensky in peacetime?

[Lathum]

How fast does he attempt to kill Zelensky in peacetime?

I think it is a moot point. There won't be peacetime if Putin is alive.

[cuervo72]

I don't think so either. I mean, Ukraine can't really advance, so militarily there is no real threat to Putin. If he can't advance, he'll just keep shooting missiles. Does his best to deal with the sanctions, while cracking down internally as much as he needs. But without some sort of actual threat, I don't think you get a belligerent power to back down.

(At least not for a much longer time.)

[sterlingice]

My work's parent company (Expeditors) has been under cyber attack for like a month now. They're a massive global logistics company, and I am curious if there is any kind of international/Russian connection, but they're not exactly announcing the details.

Where I work, we just re-raised our Cybersecurity threat level this morning. It was high at the start of the war and sanctions. Then lowered for a couple of weeks. Now back up, as of this morning.

SI

[RainMaker]

I know the whole "government shouldn't pick winners " thing, but it really might be in our best interest to subsidize certain critical products to make it more cost effective to produce in country. Computer chips for one.

The problem with the chip industry isn't needing subsidies. These companies are incredibly profitable. They just take their profits and buyback stock instead of investing in their companies. Any subsidies would just increase their profits more and increase buybacks.

To increase production, you'd have to either have the government make chips themselves or change tax laws.

[GrantDawg]

Any subsidies I was suggesting would be tied to the creation of chips in country. Not just giving the money with no strings attached. The discussion was about bringing more vital production by to the States.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Brian Swartz]

A primary problem with chip production is crypto mining. That creates virtually unlimited demand. New component factories are being built to at least some degree, but that takes a while and there are many links in the chain. Ultimately though until something changes there will always be shortages and higher prices in that field no matter how much they produce.

Personally I wish people would realize how ridiculous crypto is as a currency (blockchain itself is a good and important development), but I don't see that happening.

[Edward64]

Any subsidies I was suggesting would be tied to the creation of chips in country. Not just giving the money with no strings attached. The discussion was about bringing more vital production by to the States.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

I make distinctions between computer chips (and really anything else). There are those that are truly bleeding edge and others that are commoditized.

If bleeding edge or critical, keep production to US and close allies. If commoditized, go ahead and farm it out to allies or neutrals (e.g. I always see Malaysia stamped on the electronics whenever I look at my motherboard).

Vaccine research and production also. Vaccine research with close allies. Manufacturing & production with allies and neutrals.

Unfortunately, heavy crude that we need for the transportation sector still falls under critical.

Nike shoes, iPhones etc. who cares. If something bad was to happen to the supply chain, I can easily live without them.

[Edward64]

4 weeks since the war started. Ukrainians are bad ass.

US warning that Belarus may very well start sending a lot of boots on the ground for Putin. This seems like an escalation, not sure what the NATO will do to counter other than send more equipment and provide intel.

[Hammer]

I certainly don't want to come across as looking down on the U.S. Anyone who knows even a moderate amount of history knows the U.K. has no position of moral high ground.

I will say patriotism can be a cancer. It brainwashes people from making objective judgements. A very handy method of controlling us. The whole "we" business, them and us. It's holding us back as humans. But if we can all stop seeing ourselves as American or British, or Russian, blindly supporting the home team. Believing what you see and hear on TV without question, maybe then at that point we could start having a little more empathy for the other side. Perhaps seeing what they have done is awful, yet realising we have done the same in our history. Bridges need to be built or this won't end well for anyone.

[RainMaker]

This is really interesting. I don't think the US would sanction him anyway, but maybe Ukraine sees him as a middleman.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ukrainian President Asked Biden Not to Sanction Abramovich to Facilitate Peace Talks <a href="https://t.co/rVgWd5XbQz">https://t.co/rVgWd5XbQz</a></p>&mdash; Nancy Youssef, نانسي يوسف (@nancyayoussef) <a href="https://twitter.com/nancyayoussef/status/1506676178274422787?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 23, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[RainMaker]

Any subsidies I was suggesting would be tied to the creation of chips in country. Not just giving the money with no strings attached. The discussion was about bringing more vital production by to the States.


I guess at that point, why not just make it ourselves? If it's considered a vital resource we need for national security, we shouldn't rely on the whims of a few CEOs.

[GrantDawg]

I guess at that point, why not just make it ourselves? If it's considered a vital resource we need for national security, we shouldn't rely on the whims of a few CEOs.
The standard answer would be innovation. Private companies are going to be more motivated to continue to innovate versus government employees. But you also know that people that always cry "socialism" are just fine with the government giving subsidies and tax breaks to private business. There would be weeping and gnashing of teeth if the government actually started opening factories.

[GrantDawg]

Russian landing ships are burning in the port of Berdyanski.
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><iframe id="twitter-widget-0" scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" class="" style="position: static; visibility: visible; width: 550px; height: 659px; display: block; flex-grow: 1;" title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1506953417935179793&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.operationsports.com%2Ffofc%2Fshowthread.php%3Fp%3D3364110&sessionId=c4f76003e7fac157b08250ee19655688e27bce3c&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px" data-tweet-id="1506953417935179793" frameborder="0"></iframe>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp><iframe scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/widget_iframe.a58e82e150afc25eb5372dd55a98b778.html?origin=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.operationsports.com" title="Twitter settings iframe" style="display: none;" frameborder="0"></iframe><iframe id="rufous-sandbox" scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" style="position: absolute; visibility: hidden; display: none; width: 0px; height: 0px; padding: 0px; border: medium none;" title="Twitter analytics iframe" frameborder="0"></iframe>

[Edward64]

US will take in 100k Ukrainian refugees. Western Europe should take the larger proportion and we help with $ but do think we can take in more. Estimated 3.5M have fled, about 10M total displaced out of total population of 44M.

The UN says that as of 22 March, 3.6 million people have left Ukraine:

Poland has taken in 2,144,244 refugees
Romania 555,021
Moldova 371,104
Hungary 324,397
Russia 271,254
Slovakia 256,838
Belarus 4,938

[Thomkal]

So there's another Ukraine Charity Bundle out-this time from Fanatical. Has 57 games and 1 DLC if you donate $15 or more:


Stand With Ukraine Charity Bundle | Fanatical (https://www.fanatical.com/en/bundle/stand-with-ukraine-charity-bundle?utm_source=Fanatical%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=Ukraine%20Bundle%20-%20Mar%2022&utm_medium=email)

[RainMaker]

The standard answer would be innovation. Private companies are going to be more motivated to continue to innovate versus government employees. But you also know that people that always cry "socialism" are just fine with the government giving subsidies and tax breaks to private business. There would be weeping and gnashing of teeth if the government actually started opening factories.

That hasn't motivated them to keep the supply chain stocked. The private sector has failed in terms of chip-making, especially the American companies.

I'd also say that the chips we need most aren't the cutting-edge stuff you find in high-end graphics cards. It's the more basic, older stuff found in cars, medical devices, appliances, etc. That doesn't require the kind of innovation we pretend is coming from American companies.

Also, Japan and Korea were not impacted by this as much as we were. Their companies re-invested into their companies while American companies just bought back shares in their stock. Just saying that if we consider this a national security issue, we shouldn't be counting on companies that only care about pumping up stock prices for a handful of their top executives.

[GrantDawg]

A tax credit based on the number of chips manufactured in the United States is way more likely to happen than nationalizing chip creation.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

I assume the US won't have much "shortage" other than higher prices. But I can see other countries suffering with real shortage (e.g. because US can afford to buy at the higher prices and price them out).

(Now if there was a true shortage of TP, there'd be an uprising)

Biden Says to Expect ‘Real’ Food Shortages Due to Ukraine War (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/biden-says-expect-real-food-175308088.html)
President Joe Biden said that the world will experience food shortages as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and production increases were a subject of discussions at a Group of Seven meeting on Thursday.

“It’s going to be real,” Biden said at a news conference in Brussels. “The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well.”

Ukraine and Russia are both major producers of wheat, in particular, and Kyiv’s government has already warned that the country’s planting and harvest have been severely disrupted by the war.

Biden said that at the G-7 summit in Brussels earlier that he and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau both discussed increasing their nation’s agricultural production to try to make up for shortfalls. Biden said he’s also urging all nations including those in Europe to drop trade restrictions that could restrict exports of food.

[Edward64]

Looks like the US will be supplying natural gas to Europe. But the 15B cubic meters is way less than what Russia is providing at 216B. So Europe will be dealing with the shortfall for a while.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60871601
The agreement will see the US provide the EU with at least 15 billion additional cubic metres of the fuel - known as LNG - by the end of the year.

The bloc has already said it will cut Russian gas use in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russia currently supplies about 40% of the EU's gas needs.

That's around 216 billion cubic metres, based on Beis figures that showed Europe consumed 541 billion cubic metres in 2020.

Cutting reliance will mean increasing imports and generating more renewable energy.

The longer-term aim is to ensure, until at least 2030, about 50 billion cubic metres per year of US gas, up from last year's 22 billion cubic metres.

The deal was announced on Friday during a three-day visit by US President Joe Biden to Brussels.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/FCC4/production/_123880746_gettyimages-1244901240.jpg

[flere-imsaho]

The US & EU are fantastically wealthy. If they chose to tap into even just a little bit of the astronomical revenues generated as a result of their provision of safe & stable economies, they'd have more that enough money to ensure a) excess food production (which already happens in the US anyway), b) vast and quick improvements to building insulation where needed and c) ramp up of complementary renewable energy sources (e.g. solar & wind together). It's all a question of will, and we're going to see how far each bloc is willing to go to tap into all that wealth.

[molson]

Is this Russia's anti-climactic way out?

Russia signals scaled-back war aims, Ukrainians advance near Kyiv (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ukraine-urges-halt-russias-assault-biden-heads-poland-2022-03-25/)

What is the West response sanction-wise if Russia just kind of runs out steam and scales things back?

[RainMaker]

The US & EU are fantastically wealthy. If they chose to tap into even just a little bit of the astronomical revenues generated as a result of their provision of safe & stable economies, they'd have more that enough money to ensure a) excess food production (which already happens in the US anyway), b) vast and quick improvements to building insulation where needed and c) ramp up of complementary renewable energy sources (e.g. solar & wind together). It's all a question of will, and we're going to see how far each bloc is willing to go to tap into all that wealth.

They could also tap the massive amounts of Russian money that is laundered through their countries to pay for this. I still say that is what should be used to rebuild Ukraine after the war. I know it won't happen, but that makes the most sense.

[BYU 14]

Is this Russia's anti-climactic way out?

Russia signals scaled-back war aims, Ukrainians advance near Kyiv (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ukraine-urges-halt-russias-assault-biden-heads-poland-2022-03-25/)

What is the West response sanction-wise if Russia just kind of runs out steam and scales things back?

That is a great question and I think it depends on if Ukraine makes concessions on Donbass. If they do, it gives western nations a path to back off a bit, which should further dampen the nuclear rhetoric, thankfully. If they do not make a concession on Donbass, it is still an active war and sanctions should remain.

[cuervo72]

Screw that, sanctions until they give up on Crimea.

[Edward64]

Russian version of fragging. Wonder what happened to the driver.

Ukraine war latest: First phase of Ukraine war over, Russia says - BBC News (https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60856533)
Two more senior Russian commanders have been killed - one of them apparently died after being attacked by his own men, a Western official has said.

The commanding officer of the 37th Motor Rifle Brigade, a colonel, was deliberately run over by his own troops as a result of the scale of losses taken by his brigade, the official said.

“That just gives an insight into perhaps some of the morale challenges that Russian forces are having,” they added.

However other reports suggested the colonel - named as Yuri Medvedev - had suffered leg injuries and had been evacuated to Belarus.

A seventh general (commander of the 49th Combined Arms Army) was also killed. The Kremlin has not yet responded to the claims.

The BBC has not been able to confirm this independently.

[Edward64]

Is this Russia's anti-climactic way out?

Russia signals scaled-back war aims, Ukrainians advance near Kyiv (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ukraine-urges-halt-russias-assault-biden-heads-poland-2022-03-25/)

What is the West response sanction-wise if Russia just kind of runs out steam and scales things back?

That's my guess. Keep some land that they do want and have civilian support, GTFO of rest of Ukraine, and call it a "win".

Crimea ain't returning to Ukraine. But I can see Ukraine not giving up on Donbass and trying to retake it. My guess is western powers will encourage Zelenskyy to take the easy way out if offered.

[RainMaker]

What is the West response sanction-wise if Russia just kind of runs out steam and scales things back?

Nothing should change santions wise.

[molson]

Screw that, sanctions until they give up on Crimea.

How about until Putin goes?

Maybe that's not realistic but, it seems like there must be a permanent changing of the relationship involving this Russian regime, regardless of how things shake out from here.

[cuervo72]

Yeah, I mean I'd love that. But we'll see. If there is any treatment of him other than pariah from here on out...

[CrimsonFox]

Who had Rezantsev in the deadpool?

[sterlingice]

Apparently, this topic has its own wikipedia page now:
List of Russian generals killed during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine - Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Russian_generals_killed_during_the_2022_invasion_of_Ukraine)

SI

[QuikSand]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This really is quite something. Wait for the total admonishment of Hungary’s Viktor Orban. <a href="https://t.co/zVrkwNY1eL">pic.twitter.com/zVrkwNY1eL</a></p>&mdash; Jack Parrock (@jackeparrock) <a href="https://twitter.com/jackeparrock/status/1507386974851805194?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Just masterful.

[RainMaker]

And remember the people in the United States that have supported and laundered Orban's autocratic regime.

[sterlingice]

This really is quite something. Wait for the total admonishment of Hungary’s Viktor Orban. pic.twitter.com/zVrkwNY1eL (https://t.co/zVrkwNY1eL)
— Jack Parrock (@jackeparrock) March 25, 2022 (https://twitter.com/jackeparrock/status/1507386974851805194?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Just masterful.

Actually, I like how it wasn't a total admonishment of Orban. He called him out but in a "you haven't chosen so far but you can still choose the right path" way, not in a "you're an awful person" way and then appealed to him on his own terms with his own history. It was really well done.

SI

[NobodyHere]

And remember the people in the United States that have supported and laundered Orban's autocratic regime.

I wonder if there is more than a dozen people in the US who even know who Orban is.

[RainMaker]

I wonder if there is more than a dozen people in the US who even know who Orban is.

The most-watched and influential cable news show recently spent a week broadcasting from Hungary spreading propaganda about Orban. He's an incredibly popular figure in right-wing media. CPAC is being hosted in Hungary in a couple of months where Orban will be a keynote speaker.

The former President put out a press release and e-mail blast to millions of his followers endorsing Orban. The former Vice President recently spoke alongside Orban at a conference in Budapest. And a number of members of Congress have shown their support.

You can't memory-hole that stuff.

[Swaggs]

In looking at the list of Russian Generals, I noticed that they are mostly all in the mid-40s, while US Generals are typically in their late 50s. Anyone have insight into why their most decorated leaders are so young? Or are the ranks not equivalent?

[JPhillips]

In looking at the list of Russian Generals, I noticed that they are mostly all in the mid-40s, while US Generals are typically in their late 50s. Anyone have insight into why their most decorated leaders are so young? Or are the ranks not equivalent?

Just a guess, but Putin's first premiership started in 1999. That would mean 50+ yead old generals started pre-Putin while 40 year olds have always been under his thumb.

[NobodyHere]

The most-watched and influential cable news show recently spent a week broadcasting from Hungary spreading propaganda about Orban. He's an incredibly popular figure in right-wing media. CPAC is being hosted in Hungary in a couple of months where Orban will be a keynote speaker.

The former President put out a press release and e-mail blast to millions of his followers endorsing Orban. The former Vice President recently spoke alongside Orban at a conference in Budapest. And a number of members of Congress have shown their support.

You can't memory-hole that stuff.

I guess I'm not up to date on the latest Trump rallies

[sterlingice]

Just a guess, but Putin's first premiership started in 1999. That would mean 50+ yead old generals started pre-Putin while 40 year olds have always been under his thumb.

That was my thought, as well - anyone 50s+ who could be a threat was already shuffled out

SI

[Swaggs]

Just a guess, but Putin's first premiership started in 1999. That would mean 50+ yead old generals started pre-Putin while 40 year olds have always been under his thumb.

That makes sense. Kind of crazy to think about what the "bench" for generals in Russia is going to look like whenever this resolves. Seems like there is the potential to have almost a generational gap in experience if things keep going in this direction.

[Galaril]

Just a guess, but Putin's first premiership started in 1999. That would mean 50+ yead old generals started pre-Putin while 40 year olds have always been under his thumb.

From what I understand this is accurate.

[NobodyHere]

Billionaire Abramovich, Ukrainian peace negotiators hit by suspected poisoning -reports (https://news.yahoo.com/russian-billionaire-abramovich-ukrainian-peace-161430061.html)

[RainMaker]

That's pretty wild if he's going after Abramovich.

Remember when Russia released a chemical weapon in the UK that killed someone and made others gravely ill and it was just kind of blown off?

[RainMaker]

Actually, the poisoning story is now being debunked. Bellingcat is not a great source for news.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">...Ihor Zhovkva - Deputy Head of President's Office - speaking to Newshour, <a href="https://twitter.com/bbcworldservice?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@bbcworldservice</a>.<br>He said he hadn't spoken to Abramovich or his people, but &quot;the members of the Ukrainian delegation are fine; I was in contact with one of them, and they said the story was false.&quot;<br><br>2/2</p>&mdash; Tim Franks (@BBCTimFranks) <a href="https://twitter.com/BBCTimFranks/status/1508527142593871883?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[GrantDawg]

I wondered. I seem to remember Bellingcat being way off on a big story a while ago. I can't remember what it was mow.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[RainMaker]

Their thing is they launder CIA stuff to the public.

[Edward64]

Peace talks in Turkey tomorrow.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/7f14efe8-2f4c-47a2-aa6b-9a755a39b626)
Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ceasefire negotiations, according to four people briefed on the discussions.

Moscow and Kyiv are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for Nato membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect to join the EU, the people said under the condition of anonymity because the matter is not yet finalised.

The draft ceasefire document does not contain any discussion of three of Russia’s initial core demands — “denazification”, “demilitarisation”, and legal protection for the Russian language in Ukraine — the people added.

Envoys from both sides are to meet in Istanbul on Tuesday in a fourth round of peace talks designed to end president Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The concessions on Russia’s side come as its month-long ground offensive has largely stalled as a result of fiercer Ukrainian resistance than expected and Russian operational deficiencies.

But Ukraine and its western backers remain sceptical of Putin’s intentions, worrying that the Russian president could be using the talks as a smokescreen to replenish his exhausted forces and plan a fresh offensive.
As part of the agreement under consideration, Ukraine would also refrain from developing nuclear weapons, or hosting foreign military bases in addition to abandoning its pursuit of Nato membership.

In exchange, Ukraine would get what Arakhamia called “wording close to Nato’s Article 5” — whereby the alliances’ members must come to each others’ aid if one is attacked — for security guarantees from countries including Russia, the US, the UK, Canada, France, Germany, China, Italy, Poland, Israel, and Turkey.
This is prob going to be the key area of contention.
The draft communiqué under consideration leaves the biggest sticking point — Ukraine’s attempts to reclaim territory seized by Russia since 2014 — to be settled in a tentative future discussion by Putin and Zelensky, the people said.

Moscow, Arakhamia said, was demanding that Ukraine recognise Russia’s control over the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014, as well as two territories run by Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region.

[Edward64]

Article below made me wonder what is happening with the Russian tourists that travelled overseas when the war started. If I was them, I'm not sure I'd want to return right now. Presumably they were impacted with all the banking constraints and ruble devaluation.

Tough situation for innocent Russians caught up in all of this.

The US Admitted a Group of Russians at the Border Under Secret Deal With Mexico (https://www.vice.com/en/article/3abejb/the-us-admitted-a-group-of-russians-at-the-border-under-secret-deal-with-mexico)
A group of Russian citizens who fled their country after the invasion of Ukraine and spent a week camped out at the U.S.-Mexico border was quietly admitted to the U.S. in a secret deal with Mexican officials, VICE World News has learned.

The group of 35 asylum seekers was whisked away in the predawn hours of March 20 and driven to a part of the border where they wouldn’t be seen: a checkpoint that has been closed to the public for several months.

[NobodyHere]

Actually, the poisoning story is now being debunked. Bellingcat is not a great source for news.


Well the BBC is still running with the story, even if some are say the health symptons are due to "environmental conditions"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60904676

[JPhillips]

The lead Ukrainian negotiator says that talks have progressed to a point where Putin and Zelensky might meet to finalize and sign papers.

[molson]

Kind of worried for Zelensky in any meeting with any Russian.

[BYU 14]

I know i would shake no hands and take no food or drink if I were him

[NobodyHere]

I would go full haz-mat suit.

[kingfc22]

The "mighty Russian military" have been exposed as frauds

[BYU 14]

The "mighty Russian military" have been exposed as frauds

Which is what happens when you purge seasoned commanders from the previous regime and replace them with younger, inexperienced leaders who care more about staying on your good side than effective military tactics or competent leadership. Putin got just what he was begging for here.

[PilotMan]

Has anyone been following the cyber war on Russia? As far as states go, Russia has been 'doing the cyber' for well over a decade and constantly against Ukraine to help destabilize it. Anonymous basically just deleted the entire database that their aviation authority maintained, according to some reports. 65 Terabytes of data, one terabyte is about 75million pages. There have been other hacking reports as well, and a myriad of upcoming data drops. It's been quite the clinic.

I can't imagine the FAA suddenly losing all of its data on planes and pilots and whatever else. Supposedly the data hadn't been backed up because of budget issues.

[Poli]

Could you imagine not having a backup of that data?

[sterlingice]

Could you imagine not having a backup of that data?

Every IT guy nods sagely.

Or at least a working backup, yeah. I bet there's probably some "backup" that satisfied some checkbox somewhere a long time ago but not one that's actually functionally a backup.

SI

[Flasch186]

Although someone&rsquo;s buyinga new laptop and starting from scratch is just what you needed and didn&rsquo;t know it lol


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GrantDawg]

Which is what happens when you purge seasoned commanders from the previous regime and replace them with younger, inexperienced leaders who care more about staying on your good side than effective military tactics or competent leadership. Putin got just what he was begging for here.
I think it has way more to do with the fact their army is mostly made up of one year conscripts. There are many jobs in our military where the training takes more than a year. A volunteer army is generally going to be better trained and have a higher morale. Add in the rampant corruption (not that it isn't pretty rampant here as well), you are not going to have a solid fighting force that can withstand a long term heavy engagement.

[JPhillips]

Yeah the corruption in regards to supply and training is a huge issue. They started without enough food and gear to last more than a week and a lot of that was substandard.

There's obviously the real risk of nuclear war, but in a conventional conflict, NATO would wipe the Russian army out in no time.

[thesloppy]

Only a month ago Russia's army was still considered the second strongest in the world & Putin was thought of as one of the shrewdest leaders in history for like 20 years running. He could have easily rode that reputation into the sunset & left Russia as a world power to be feared, but in an effort to make some kind of legacy statement he may have instead set off the country's literal collapse in less than a month, by first believing his corrupt military's own propaganda and then actively revealing it's worthlessness to the entire world. It's hard to overstate how ridiculous this would've seemed just a month ago.

[tarcone]

Think how funny this would be if he started in November

[Edward64]

Think how funny this would be if he started in November

I think during election season, it would have been unpredictable as to what Trump would have done & said. Now if it was early 2021, I can easily see where NATO/EU response be in disarray because of Trump being Trump.

I am critical of Biden on how we exited Afghanistan. But can't imagine a better NATO/EU response under Biden. Our response has been "balanced" and not directly confrontational. Kudos to US leadership in corralling others together in supplying weapons, intel & advice, economic sanctions, and IMO very likely some operators on the ground, behind the front lines helping Ukrainian military ops.

With that said, kudos to Zelenskyy. I would have assumed he would have gone into exile but he didn't take the easy way out. He's the George Washington of Ukraine now (regardless of past history).

[RainMaker]

Only a month ago Russia's army was still considered the second strongest in the world & Putin was thought of as one of the shrewdest leaders in history for like 20 years running. He could have easily rode that reputation into the sunset & left Russia as a world power to be feared, but in an effort to make some kind of legacy statement he may have instead set off the country's literal collapse in less than a month, by first believing his corrupt military's own propaganda and then actively revealing it's worthlessness to the entire world. It's hard to overstate how ridiculous this would've seemed just a month ago.

Always be skeptical of the propaganda surrounding foreign militaries. Many in this country use it to push for more defense spending. We're seeing it come up in talks about the Navy's new budget.

[RainMaker]

Interesting that the ruble has rebounded to almost pre-war levels in Russia. Maybe the sanctions will work long-term, but in the short-term, it doesn't seem to be as destructive as we thought.

Worth noting that we didn't really go after the oligarchs which is how you really put pressure on that country.

[NobodyHere]

No wonder Russian troop morale is low:

Russian Troops Suffer ‘Acute Radiation Sickness’ After Digging Chernobyl Trenches (https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-troops-suffer-acute-radiation-sickness-after-digging-chernobyl-trenches)

[BYU 14]

Not knowing, or telling your troops they were digging in radio-active soil is incompetence on a whole other level.

[sterlingice]

And for what? Trenches that are probably of low strategic value. Like if you were attacking the site, wouldn't you just be like "screw it, let them stay in their trenches and they'll have to come out sooner rather than later". Or some petty stuff like mining the area around it.

SI

[Edward64]

I suspect its more foxholes than trenches (like WWI). Anything to reduce your profile is good IMO.

[sterlingice]

I suspect its more foxholes than trenches (like WWI). Anything to reduce your profile is good IMO.

In a war where you're getting beaten pretty soundly in a lot of areas, there might be a better use of your troops than digging trenches in a highly irradiated area on land they were never planning on keeping and where it was very unlikely there was going to be a pitched infantry battle.

SI

[Lathum]

If I was playing a world domination game and these were the results I was getting when a super power attacked an inferior nation I would think the AI was busted.

[tarcone]

Is Zelensky the Anti-Christ? I thought maybe Trump, but I always thought Eastern Europe would be the home area.

[JPhillips]

Is Zelensky the Anti-Christ?

No.

[Lathum]

Is Zelensky the Anti-Christ? I thought maybe Trump, but I always thought Eastern Europe would be the home area.

WTF does this even mean?

[Edward64]

Not sure if confirmed but there are reports that Ukraine attacked a fuel depot inside Russia. Awfully cheeky of them (but good for them).

I think we can conclude this is now a stalemate (as long as the west continues to supply weapons & intel). My guess is a negotiated settlement is the likely scenario now vs a straight out Russian win.