Invasion of Ukraine

[AlexB]

Thought this deserved a separate thread… we now know how the new world order is going to divide now - one surprise to me at least

From the BBC live feed:

Russia, unsurprisingly, has vetoed a draft UN resolution which would have deplored its invasion of Ukraine, after a debate at the Security Council.

Eleven members voted in favour of the resolution. India, China and the UAE abstained.

[Solecismic]

The development today Putin should have seen coming: Xi is making it clear that Putin works for him and that Putin's own goals and motivations do not matter.

At this point, he has to realize he has destroyed his own legacy. While he can take Kyiv, and probably will in the next day or so, he can't move much further. Unfortunately for the people of Ukraine, there's no guarantee they won't become Belarus, part two. That would be just fine for China.

It really is up to the EU/UK and the US to decide just how far to take this. We didn't do anything when Crimea was taken (which, as we know, happened about a week after the 2014 Olympics in Sochi ended).

[QuikSand]

Glory to Ukraine

[Solecismic]

Last month, a poll in Finland indicated 28% support, 42% opposition (30% uncertain), to joining NATO. Apparently, that was the first poll ever taken in Finland that indicated less than 50% opposition.

Presumably, that number would have changed this month. The Finnish PM indicated as much this week. Finland and Sweden would not act separately, either way.

The Russians have just warned Finland that they're next if they join (or words to that effect). Finland is the country perhaps most dependent on Russian energy exports, so perhaps the warning is pointless.

No idea which way this will go. Does Xi accept NATO as the line that can't be crossed (World War III being perhaps bad for the Chinese economy). Does the EU accept this kind of threat as easily as it apparently has accepted the invasion of Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine, yes. But peace is better. The suffering just beginning in Kyiv - it's hard to imagine. We in the US haven't had to face that ongoing reality in almost 80 years.

[Atocep]

My primary Russian teacher when I was learning Russian in the Army was from Ukraine and received asylum to the US by President Reagan. I keep going back to her stories of what it was like under Soviet rule and it's heartbreaking to see what's happening now while the whole world watches.

[GrantDawg]

Sounds like the severing of Russia from SWIFT is about to happen. France just approved as well as Germany making moves toward it. Sounds like the US and Canada is pushing it pretty hard.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Brian Swartz]

At this point, he has to realize he has destroyed his own legacy. While he can take Kyiv, and probably will in the next day or so, he can't move much further. Unfortunately for the people of Ukraine, there's no guarantee they won't become Belarus, part two. That would be just fine for China.

What makes you think they can't go much past Kyiv? I haven't seen anything to that effect. Agreed on Xi for sure, but I don't think this changes Putin's legacy very much. This is who he's been. It's clearer and more obvious this time sure, but it's not fundamentally different in any way. He's been a strongman authoritarian, he is one, he clearly intends to be one to his grave.

[Solecismic]

What makes you think they can't go much past Kyiv? I haven't seen anything to that effect. Agreed on Xi for sure, but I don't think this changes Putin's legacy very much. This is who he's been. It's clearer and more obvious this time sure, but it's not fundamentally different in any way. He's been a strongman authoritarian, he is one, he clearly intends to be one to his grave.

For clarification, Kyiv being the location of the central Ukrainian government, I mean control of Ukraine and the ability to put a puppet government in place.

Much past that would mean either the Baltic states, since they are in NATO and presumably Xi believes that's a red line and does not want WWIII to begin, or Finland/Sweden if they begin the NATO process (being mostly capable of joining, as far as I know) and Putin continues with his threats.

I don't know, though. Moldova seems like it's pretty much in the same camp as Belarus and Georgia seems to be quite willing to do whatever it takes to stay out of Putin's vision.

I hope the pressure remains. As painful as it is, that Ukraine has the resolve to avoid supporting a puppet government and that the EU and the US does everything it can to help that process and never recognize whatever Putin puts in place there. Because we can't stop what's happening now.

[Brian Swartz]

Ahh ok. I thought you meant he would be stopped before being able to control Ukraine. Makes a lot more sense now.

My only difference then is I think we can stop what's happening now. We just don't want to pay the price to do it. That could end up being the better choice, but I have my doubts. I think it's the more expensive one in the long run.

[Edward64]

This is pretty cool. All world leaders not supporting Russia should do the same.

(let's say current world leaders so we exclude Trump)

Ukraine invasion - Boris Johnson directly addresses Russian people in their own language: 'I do not believe this war is in your name' | Politics News | Sky News (https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-invasion-boris-johnson-directly-addresses-russian-people-in-their-language-i-do-not-believe-this-war-is-in-your-name-12551719)
Boris Johnson has directly addressed the people of Russia telling them in their own language: "I do not believe this war is in your name."

In a video message released on Friday night, the prime minister also spoke Ukrainian urging an end to the conflict.

Mr Johnson's latest comments after Kyiv was hit by airstrikes and fighting got closer to the capital.

In the two-minute video posted on Twitter, Mr Johnson said: "The scenes unfolding in the streets and fields of Ukraine are nothing short of a tragedy.

[Edward64]

Sounds like the severing of Russia from SWIFT is about to happen. France just approved as well as Germany making moves toward it. Sounds like the US and Canada is pushing it pretty hard.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

I've read France is committed but have read Germany still has reservations.

But yeah, lets do this and see what happens.

[RainMaker]

I've read France is committed but have read Germany still has reservations.

But yeah, lets do this and see what happens.

It immediately destroys 5%-10% of their economy.

[RainMaker]

Just a dystopia photo.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kyiv, our splendid, peaceful city, survived another night under attacks by Russian ground forces, missiles. One of them has hit a residential apartment in Kyiv. I demand the world: fully isolate Russia, expel ambassadors, oil embargo, ruin its economy. Stop Russian war criminals! <a href="https://t.co/c3ia46Ctjq">pic.twitter.com/c3ia46Ctjq</a></p>&mdash; Dmytro Kuleba (@DmytroKuleba) <a href="https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497463617767227395?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Lathum]

Reddit - Dive into anything (https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/t1cnk1/pornhub_has_blocked_their_content_for_russian/)

[MIJB#19]

Last month, a poll in Finland indicated 28% support, 42% opposition (30% uncertain), to joining NATO. Apparently, that was the first poll ever taken in Finland that indicated less than 50% opposition.

Presumably, that number would have changed this month. The Finnish PM indicated as much this week. Finland and Sweden would not act separately, either way.

The Russians have just warned Finland that they're next if they join (or words to that effect). Finland is the country perhaps most dependent on Russian energy exports, so perhaps the warning is pointless.

No idea which way this will go. Does Xi accept NATO as the line that can't be crossed (World War III being perhaps bad for the Chinese economy). Does the EU accept this kind of threat as easily as it apparently has accepted the invasion of Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine, yes. But peace is better. The suffering just beginning in Kyiv - it's hard to imagine. We in the US haven't had to face that ongoing reality in almost 80 years.Main difference here is that Finland (and Sweden) are part of the EU, while Finland (unlike Sweden) is also a Euro currency member, which means the EU members in NATO would be forced to come to help. Basically, at some point, being part of the EU will force countries to (request to) join NATO.

[GrantDawg]

Everything I am seeing this morning is bad news for Putin. Turkey is now refusing to allow Russian warships into the Black Sea. The leaders of Hungary and the Czech have openly condemned the invasion, and Kazakhstan is refusing to send troops in support as requested. These are some of Putin's biggest allies. They are now recognizing that this could easily be their fate at any time.

[QuikSand]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The photo they chose to accompany the announcement, by the way, says “fuck off” in all directions. <a href="https://t.co/FHnJwT0ix0">https://t.co/FHnJwT0ix0</a></p>&mdash; Jane Lytvynenko (@JaneLytv) <a href="https://twitter.com/JaneLytv/status/1497570823112175620?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Glory to Ukraine

[Edward64]

My guess is if Ukraine can hold out long enough, world opinion against Russia will increase to the point where Russia will back off. They'll keep the 2 friendly regions and call it a win.

The big one is China. From what I've been reading in reddit (reliable as always), Chinese citizens favor Russia (primarily an anti-US, anti-West knee jerk reaction) but Chinese government seems to have gone more towards neutral now.

Really, really hope Ukraine can hold the commies off.

[Edward64]

Bad ass grandma. I can believe the first one but guessing the second one is embellished. Still a great quote.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10548649/Put-sunflower-seeds-pockets-grow-Ukraine-soil-Woman-confronts-Russian-troops.html
The woman shouted at two of the invaders: 'What the f*** are you doing in our land?' while one of the embarrassed soldiers in Henichesk, a port city on the sea of Azov, tried to calm her.

She walked away, then called back: 'You should put sunflower seeds in your pockets so that they will grow on Ukranian land after you die.'

[GrantDawg]

This would be catastrophic.
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Very important text by energy expert Andriy Zinchenko from <a href="https://twitter.com/greencubator?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@greencubator</a>: Russian missile attack targeted the Kyiv Hydro Powerplant Dam <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CloseTheSky?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CloseTheSky</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ArmUkraine?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ArmUkraine</a> <a href="https://t.co/WIeLB2bWgG">pic.twitter.com/WIeLB2bWgG</a></p>&mdash; Olena Halushka (@OlenaHalushka) <a href="https://twitter.com/OlenaHalushka/status/1497515764559093766?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[JPhillips]

Hard to see how this ends, but of course it will. I can't see the Ukrainians laying down arms in support of a Russian puppet government, but I also can't see Putin withdrawing without at least being able to point to something as a victory. In the meantime, lots of people will be injured and killed.

God bless Ukraine.

[Ksyrup]

I've seen speculation that Russia may drop a dirty bomb on its own citizens and blame it on Ukraine. Not sure if that's supposed to fool us or its own citizens. They are warning about it plus the health minister is asking for large numbers of medical personnel to be on call.

[GrantDawg]

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister is saying that Hungary and Germany have signed off the removal of Russia from SWIFT and the preparations are underway.

[GrantDawg]

Meanwhile, the Turks haven't actually closed the Black Sea off from Russian warship movement. It was sent as a request that seemed like a report.

[QuikSand]

I've seen speculation that Russia may drop a dirty bomb on its own citizens and blame it on Ukraine. Not sure if that's supposed to fool us or its own citizens. They are warning about it plus the health minister is asking for large numbers of medical personnel to be on call.

propaganda, it's a helluva drug

[Coffee Warlord]

President of Ukraine: to US when offered an evacuation: "I need ammunition, not a ride."

I have no idea if that guy has been a good president, but he wins for Badass Leader Line.

[PilotMan]

Meanwhile, the Turks haven't actually closed the Black Sea off from Russian warship movement. It was sent as a request that seemed like a report.

The reason being something about an international law dictates that they cannot warships from returning to their home port after deployment. I don't know which law exactly, but that was the justification used.

[PilotMan]

President of Ukraine: to US when offered an evacuation: "I need ammunition, not a ride."

I have no idea if that guy has been a good president, but he wins for Badass Leader Line.


It's essentially the Alamo at this point.

[NobodyHere]

President of Ukraine: to US when offered an evacuation: "I need ammunition, not a ride."

I have no idea if that guy has been a good president, but he wins for Badass Leader Line.

Is that real?

[Lathum]

Is that real?

I have seen it widely reported.

I think the thing that could really undermine Putin on the global stage is the targeting of civilians. Images like that tank and high rise buildings being bombed, and god forbid they hit that damn, are really going to shift peoples perspectives.

[NobodyHere]

I guess I'll throw this thought out here:

But does anyone suspect that the main reason that Republicans like Mitch McConnell are calling for max sanctions against Russia is to help drive up energy costs in the US in which later they will blame Biden for?

[sterlingice]

Everything I am seeing this morning is bad news for Putin. Turkey is now refusing to allow Russian warships into the Black Sea. The leaders of Hungary and the Czech have openly condemned the invasion, and Kazakhstan is refusing to send troops in support as requested. These are some of Putin's biggest allies. They are now recognizing that this could easily be their fate at any time.

Near as I can tell, Turkey closed off the Bosphorus but wouldn't Russia still have ships in the Black Sea from their bases on the other side of the sea as they control the eastern half of it?

SI

[Edward64]

I guess I'll throw this thought out here:

But does anyone suspect that the main reason that Republicans like Mitch McConnell are calling for max sanctions against Russia is to help drive up energy costs in the US in which later they will blame Biden for?

Too conspiratorial for me (and the price hike may not last that long). And there's always the Putin bogeyman to blame for a period of time.

[Edward64]

Near as I can tell, Turkey closed off the Bosphorus but wouldn't Russia still have ships in the Black Sea from their bases on the other side of the sea as they control the eastern half of it?

SI

I was thinking that Russia already have ships in the Black Sea (e.g. heroic stand at Snake Island). And doubt Turkey would "confront" them.

[sterlingice]

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">This was highly co-ordinated.<br><br>The same 10 lies about fake Ukranian attacks were told by 10 different Russian news networks, according to <a href="https://twitter.com/DFRLab?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DFRLab</a> disinfo analysts in Ukraine.<br><br>These are not just the ramblings of Putin &amp; random officials - it is part of their strategy. <a href="https://t.co/t5WYfLz0PR">pic.twitter.com/t5WYfLz0PR</a></p>&mdash; Rachel Lavin (@RachelLavin) <a href="https://twitter.com/RachelLavin/status/1497606758889570310?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

SI

[Atocep]

I didn't have direct experience with Russian forces, but I do know a lot of people that did joint operations with them. Their equipment is dogshit. Their vehicles were usually not running and they were constantly trying to barter for parts, fuel, or working on them. They were undergeared and always trying to trade with our guys for new boots, warm weather gear, wet weather gear, ect.

Their soldiers are mostly young kids that are genuinely nice, but underpaid or not paid at all, and just doing what they are told. If you watch the sunflower lady video you see the soldier she's talking to is trying to defuse the situation with her and you can tell he probably doesn't want to be there. I'm sure when you combine those facts with most of these soldiers either having friends or family in Ukraine and I'm sure morale is a massive issue for the Russian forces at the moment.

[tarcone]

Wouldnt it be awesome if Russia's privates just laid their arms down and said "nope, not doing this. " and left.

What a great sentiment that would be. I imagine every 12-30 year old inn the world would get behind that.

[NobodyHere]

Wouldnt it be awesome if Russia's privates just laid their arms down and said "nope, not doing this. " and left.

What a great sentiment that would be. I imagine every 12-30 year old inn the world would get behind that.

That would be fantastic, but what happens after that?

Meaning, what would happen to the privates after they return home?

[BigDPW]

I guess I'll throw this thought out here:

But does anyone suspect that the main reason that Republicans like Mitch McConnell are calling for max sanctions against Russia is to help drive up energy costs in the US in which later they will blame Biden for?

I normally stray far from these political statements and conversations here but this is a little to over the top for me.

Seems to me most conservative voices are asking why the administration isn't quickly acting to reduce gas prices (reversing course on Keystone, allow more drilling domestically, etc). I would gain a ton of respect for the administration if they would do these things.

I have even heard suggestions that we use domestic strategic reserves. This seems a bit reckless to me though as should the proverbial crap hit the fan and we (US) be dragged into a major conflict the side with the most oil to fuel their forces will be at an advantage. I am not a warhawk but if we are dragged into a major military conflict I want our boys to have every advantage possible.

It seems that producing more energy/oil domestically ASAP would benefit us at home and militarily with very little immediate cost. I think we can table the environmental arguments over such a policy for a few years while we maximize our ability to respond to a world wide conflict that would likely pit us against China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran at minimum.

I pray it never comes to something like that but I want us to be as prepared as possible and hopefully deter such an outcome by our preparedness. I support Biden as our Commander in Chief and his decisions thus far in this conflict despite my disappointments in his performance politically/policy decisions thus far in his term. I hope we will not hold back the SWIFT lever if it comes down to our (US) vote.

[Lathum]

Seeing reports the dam may have fallen

[Atocep]

That would be fantastic, but what happens after that?

Meaning, what would happen to the privates after they return home?

There would be a drastic spike in suicide rates among the soldiers and their families over the next couple years.

As it stands I expect some military leaders will be suicided over this.

[JPhillips]

Keystone wasn't scheduled to start pumping until 2030.

[JPhillips]

dola

This motherfucker just wandering around a firefight looking for a tank to blow up.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">NLAW seen during a firefight. Insane video filmed reportedly on the outskirts of Ivankov. <a href="https://t.co/a0mtrFPzhT">pic.twitter.com/a0mtrFPzhT</a></p>&mdash; C O U P S U R E (@COUPSURE) <a href="https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1497590205074845698?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[tarcone]

After China invades Taiwan rename this THE WW3 Thread.

This is the millenials time to shine. End this world war.

[Brian Swartz]

People are insane.

Someone on my facebook feed stated they thought we should nuke every major city in China in response to the Ukraine situation, presumably just to make sure nothing happens in Taiwan. It would also 'encourage' Putin to take his army back home. I don't think they were joking.

Whatever we may think of our leaders, they're more rational than that thankfully.

[flere-imsaho]

I normally stray far from these political statements and conversations here but this is a little to over the top for me.

I suspect Republican politicians calling for max sanctions on Russia are those who don't want to get on the wrong end of a PR war. If it also drives up petroleum prices, fine, take a look at their donors.

Seems to me most conservative voices are asking why the administration isn't quickly acting to reduce gas prices (reversing course on Keystone, allow more drilling domestically, etc). I would gain a ton of respect for the administration if they would do these things.

What makes you think any of these things would quickly reduce gas prices? Keystone wouldn't have pumped until 2030. Thousands of drilling licenses lie unused (https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/fact-sheet-president-biden-take-action-uphold-commitment-restore-balance-public-lands). Etc....

It seems that producing more energy/oil domestically ASAP would benefit us at home and militarily with very little immediate cost. I think we can table the environmental arguments over such a policy for a few years while we maximize our ability to respond to a world wide conflict that would likely pit us against China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran at minimum.

As of 2020, the United States used about 20 million barrels of oil a day (Mb/d). It also produced about 16 Mb/d. Some of that gets exported. Source: &bull; US: oil consumption 2020 | Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/282716/oil-consumption-in-the-us-per-day/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20United%20States,oil%20consumption%20in%20the%20world).

As of 2020, U.S. imports of petroleum amount to about 7.8 Mb/d, half of which is from Canada, and 7% of which is from Russia. Source: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) (https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6)

Given these numbers and the number of drilling leases already granted lying unused, the U.S. is in perfectly good shape when it comes to petroleum dependency. And that's without even considering usage caps that could be instituted in the event of a wartime event.

[JPhillips]

Roman Abramovich transferred control of Chelsea to the charitable foundation. He must fear having the team taken away by the UK government.

Do it.

[cuervo72]

Is that like the "charitable foundations" that "own" all the Waltons' art?

[Solecismic]

Keystone wasn't scheduled to start pumping until 2030.

The revised proposal which eliminated the potential for emissions by powering it with alternative sources of energy would have added 7-8 years to the project.

If it hadn't been canceled by executive order, it was scheduled to come online next year.

However, it's a dead project now. I don't think it could be restarted at this point without the government paying for what private investment was financing.

I know it isn't popular to talk about energy independence, especially since Trump is a big proponent. But I don't think it's out of bounds to say that without Europe's dependence on Russian exported energy, this wouldn't have happened.

The US and Europe are doing a great job reducing emissions - from the US and Europe. A lot of that is being moved to Asia and the atmosphere doesn't really care where it comes from.

Renewables have their place, but we don't have the advances in battery storage necessary to rely on them right now. Doesn't mean we stop trying, but the cost of insecure energy, well, it means that terrible people like Putin have a lot more power than they should have.

[Thomkal]

I must say reading the various accounts of the war today on twitter and a bit surprised by two things:


1) How even the authoritarian governments around the world are turning their backs on Russia-I'm not sure Russia has any allies in this.


2) The reports on how Russian military equipment is just not prepared for the war-lots of stories about vehicles running out of gas and soldiers going around begging for food. I was expecting much more of a dominant Russian army and I worry what Putin might do if he sees his forces doing poorly.

[BigDPW]

The revised proposal which eliminated the potential for emissions by powering it with alternative sources of energy would have added 7-8 years to the project.

If it hadn't been canceled by executive order, it was scheduled to come online next year.

However, it's a dead project now. I don't think it could be restarted at this point without the government paying for what private investment was financing.

I know it isn't popular to talk about energy independence, especially since Trump is a big proponent. But I don't think it's out of bounds to say that without Europe's dependence on Russian exported energy, this wouldn't have happened.

The US and Europe are doing a great job reducing emissions - from the US and Europe. A lot of that is being moved to Asia and the atmosphere doesn't really care where it comes from.

Renewables have their place, but we don't have the advances in battery storage necessary to rely on them right now. Doesn't mean we stop trying, but the cost of insecure energy, well, it means that terrible people like Putin have a lot more power than they should have.

I appreciate your thoughts and balanced perspective on this. Seems like energy independence for us domestically and not having Europe dependent on Russia would be an important way to avoid situations like this.

For all his warts and flaws (and boy are there plenty) Trump was right about some stuff and the desire/goal to be energy independent was one of them. Sort of glad he called out NATO a bit too (may not have liked the way he did it) while he was in office.

It certainly would be nice to limit our dependence on our relative enemies (Russia and China in particular) for all sorts of resources and goods as our world politics evolves over the next few decades.

As I learn more about WW2 history it is clear that strategic goods such as Rubber, Oil, Steel, electronics, etc played a huge role in the eventual outcome (not to discount the will, ingenuity, and sacrifices of the Allies at all). I hope we keep those lessons in mind so we can be prepared regarding strategic resources, cyber warfare offensive/defensive capabilities, etc if it ever were to come to such a terrible point that we need them.

[Edward64]

FWIW, article on how come Europe became so dependent on Russian natural gas. Basically, natural gas fields are running out and Russian gas was cheapest.

The US has plenty of natural gas. I'm sure we are in talks on how to get more natural gas to Western Europe. Price might go up on us though, that'll hurt many in the US but in the big picture, think we need to share in some of the pain.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/why-europe-depends-on-russia-for-natural-gas.html
On Wednesday, The Washington Post reported the European Union is making plans for energy independence from Russia, citing sources who spoke on condition of anonymity. The plan is expected to be announced by the European Commission next week.
So how did the region become so dependent on Putin’s Russia for its energy supplies?
:
Production of natural gas in Europe decreased because the North Sea gas fields, which are particularly important sources of natural gas production from the U.K. and the Netherlands, were depleted. And later the Netherlands announced they were completely shutting down their Groningen gas fields because of earthquakes.
About 25% of the EU’s energy consumption comes from natural gas, according to the Directorate-General for Energy for the EU. Oil and petroleum (32%), renewable energy and biofuels (18%), and solid fossil fuels (11%) make up the rest.

That dependence on natural gas means a dependence on Russia. Today, the EU is the largest importer of natural gas in the world, according to the Directorate-General for Energy for the EU, with the largest share of its gas coming from Russia (41%), Norway (24%) and Algeria (11%).

“In terms of foreign suppliers, Russian gas was just the cheapest.

[Edward64]

Looks like a partial SWIFT expulsion for now. Tightening the screws slowly vs all at once. Beats me if it'll work.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/26/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-swift/index.html
The White House, along with France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Canada, announced Saturday evening that they would expel certain Russian banks from SWIFT, the high-security network that connects thousands of financial institutions around the world, pledging to "collectively ensure that this war is a strategic failure for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin."

"This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally," they wrote in a joint statement released by the White House, also pledging "restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions," and restricting the sale of "golden passports" that allow Russian oligarchs to avoid the brunt of sanctions already levied.

US and European officials have also discussed targeting the Russian Central Bank with sanctions, according to two people familiar with the talks, a step without precedent for an economy of Russia's size.

No final decisions have been made, the people said, and the structure of the sanctions under discussion remains unclear.

[NobodyHere]

President of Ukraine: to US when offered an evacuation: "I need ammunition, not a ride."

I have no idea if that guy has been a good president, but he wins for Badass Leader Line.

It's probably easier to give this guy ammunition rather than trying to ship this guy's balls out of the country.

[BigDPW]

It's probably easier to give this guy ammunition rather than trying to ship this guy's balls out of the country.

LOL :lol:

[Edward64]

Germany is now sending weapons. The article list other countries but kinda surprised there aren't more NATO countries (well at least the ones that don't border Russia) contributing "defensive" weapons.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/major-shift-germany-send-weapons-ukraine-83131834
In a significant shift, the German government said Saturday it will send weapons and other supplies directly to Ukraine, which is fighting to keep Russia from invading its capital city.
United States announced $350 million in aid to Ukraine, totaling $1 billion in security assistance since President Joe Biden took office. The additional aid includes “anti-armor, small arms and various munitions, body armor and related equipment,
Italy earlier this week announced it will send nonlethal military equipment such as de-mining equipment and protective devices for soldiers. France announced that requests for equipment by Ukraine are under study. Before the invasion, France supplied some 100 million euros in arms to Ukraine, including short-range defensive missiles,

[Edward64]

It's probably easier to give this guy ammunition rather than trying to ship this guy's balls out of the country.

No doubt he's a hero. Sure hope he pulls it off.

Dead or alive or captured, he'll be remembered for a long time.

[Edward64]

Hard to believe this is true but it did come from Macron, I assume these are like tactical nukes.

Russia have MOABs and FOABs to still use (and likely some chemical weapons) so threatening use of nukes seem way way premature. So guess it's just a "threat" for NATO to not intervene more.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-kyiv-boris-johnson-business-2db2e7aeab196d941e7b66492feca14b
French President Emmanuel Macron has asked his Belarus counterpart to demand that the country, Ukraine’s neighbor, quickly order Russian troops to leave, claiming Moscow has been given the green light to deploy nuclear arms there.

In a phone conversation Saturday, Macron denounced “the gravity of a decision that would authorize Russia to deploy nuclear arms on Belarus soil,” a statement by the presidential palace said.

Macron told Alexander Lukashenko that fraternity between the people of Belarus and Ukraine should lead Belarus to “refuse to be a vassal and an accomplice to Russia in the war against Ukraine,” the statement said.

[RainMaker]

Seems like a partial SWIFT was what was agreed on. Not really surprising. Can't go after the real wealthy folks or harm the energy sector.

[Edward64]

Nice! Go Elon Musk

(you might redeem your asshole image with this assuming you don't revert back after).

Elon Musk activates Starlink satellites to give Ukraine data backup – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-activates-starlink-satellites-to-give-ukraine-data-backup/)
SpaceX founder Elon Musk has activated Starlink, his commercial internet network, in Ukraine, with "more terminals en route," the billionaire said.

Musk's SpaceX has thousands of Starlink satellites in orbit, which allow the company to beam broadband services around Earth, without the need for fiber-optic cables. The satellites could keep Ukraine online if its internet infrastructure is damaged by Russia's attacks.

Musk's move came in response to a plea by Ukraine’s First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fedorov, who called for help on Saturday, as Ukraine fought off an invasion and sustained cyberattacks by Russian forces.

Tweeting directly at Musk, Fedorov said: "While you try to colonize Mars — Russia try to occupy Ukraine! While your rockets successfully land from space — Russian rockets attack Ukrainian civil people! We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations and to address sane Russians to stand."

In response, Musk said: "Starlink service is now active in Ukraine. More terminals en route."

[RainMaker]

Seems to me most conservative voices are asking why the administration isn't quickly acting to reduce gas prices (reversing course on Keystone, allow more drilling domestically, etc). I would gain a ton of respect for the administration if they would do these things.

They don't really care about the price of oil/gas. In fact, they helped broker a historic deal years ago to cut oil production and drive up prices across the board.

It seems that producing more energy/oil domestically ASAP would benefit us at home and militarily with very little immediate cost. I think we can table the environmental arguments over such a policy for a few years while we maximize our ability to respond to a world wide conflict that would likely pit us against China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran at minimum.


The easiest short term solution is to get the Saudis to increase output again. We sell them weapons, provide them protection, and look the other way when they commit genocide, murder our journalists, and commit human rights abuses. Feel like maybe it's time to use some leverage and stop acting like their bitch.

[sterlingice]

Looks like Russia has moved onto (even more) obvious war crimes. They've blown up a couple of oil depots to disrupt energy and create an ecological disaster


<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Vasylkiv right now.<br>A local oil terminal has been targeted. Local population needs urgent evacuation. <a href="https://t.co/ftf7Vo3zyX">pic.twitter.com/ftf7Vo3zyX</a></p>&mdash; Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) <a href="https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497714554377228289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code">⚡️Kyiv administration: Kyiv residents must close their windows tightly.

Due to the shelling and explosion of the oil depot in Vasylkiv, a town 40 kilometers south of the capital, the wind can carry away smoke and harmful substances.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022 (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497731576297402369?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

</code></samp>
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code">The footage shows a gas pipeline on fire in Kharkiv after a Russian attack.

Video: State Special Communications Service of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/owuSoKqoFA (https://t.co/owuSoKqoFA)
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 27, 2022 (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497728382875938816?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw) <script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp></code></samp>

SI

[sterlingice]

Or this

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">⚡️Russian forces fired at radioactive waste disposal site in Kyiv. <br><br>According to preliminary assessment of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine, there is no threat to people outside the sanitary protection zone.</p>&mdash; The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) <a href="https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497755402926268421?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

</code></samp>
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">⚡️Ukraine's State Emergency Service has clarified that the shelling on a radioactive waste disposal site in Kyiv did not lead to depressurization of the storage of radioactive substances. <br><br>The hit was on the fence and the building itself and the tanks remain intact.</p>&mdash; The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) <a href="https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497758992914866177?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp></code></samp>

SI

[bronconick]

I must say reading the various accounts of the war today on twitter and a bit surprised by two things:


2) The reports on how Russian military equipment is just not prepared for the war-lots of stories about vehicles running out of gas and soldiers going around begging for food. I was expecting much more of a dominant Russian army and I worry what Putin might do if he sees his forces doing poorly.


I wonder if Putin saw our Afghan puppet state grab their millions and leave the country to the Taliban last summer in about three days and assume that a quick shock and awe border crossing would lead to surrenders and the Ukranian government fleeing. Now that's not the case, they're stuck trying to take Kiev with a less than fully prepared and supplied army

[Atocep]

I wonder if Putin saw our Afghan puppet state grab their millions and leave the country to the Taliban last summer in about three days and assume that a quick shock and awe border crossing would lead to surrenders and the Ukranian government fleeing. Now that's not the case, they're stuck trying to take Kiev with a less than fully prepared and supplied army

100%

Putin, I'm sure, assumed Zelensky would flee and that would lead to the fall of the Ukraine government and military within a couple of days. That's part of why he insisted it's not an invasion but instead a strategic military operation. They weren't prepared logistically or strategically for them to put up much of a fight.

What it's turned into is something they didn't expect and something they didn't want but they're kind of stuck at this point with no clear offramp that Putin would be willing to swallow.

This isn't just a massive strategic misstep when it comes to the invasion but keep in mind Putin's goals all along have been to get the former Soviet states back together, weaken NATO, and isolate Europe from US support. What's accomplished here is uniting world leadership in a way we haven't seen since 9/11.

[sterlingice]

100%

Putin, I'm sure, assumed Zelensky would flee and that would lead to the fall of the Ukraine government and military within a couple of days. That's part of why he insisted it's not an invasion but instead a strategic military operation. They weren't prepared logistically or strategically for them to put up much of a fight.

What it's turned into is something they didn't expect and something they didn't want but they're kind of stuck at this point with no clear offramp that Putin would be willing to swallow.

This isn't just a massive strategic misstep when it comes to the invasion but keep in mind Putin's goals all along have been to get the former Soviet states back together, weaken NATO, and isolate Europe from US support. What's accomplished here is uniting world leadership in a way we haven't seen since 9/11.

I don't know how this ends. But right now this feels like a completely unintended side effect of this in a way that could actually change the world for the next couple of decades

SI

[RainMaker]

Looks like Russia has moved onto (even more) obvious war crimes. They've blown up a couple of oil depots to disrupt energy and create an ecological disaster


There were reports of a Children's Hospital and some residential buildings being hit too. Would wait for confirmation on that.

Also appears they went after a dam which is a war crime (although one we just committed a few years back).
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[Atocep]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Russian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Russian</a> military leaders should think very carefully before following the orders they recently received <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Putin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Putin</a> is 2 years shy of the life expectancy of a Russian male <br>and you will spend the rest of your lives evading an international tribunal for committing his crimes</p>&mdash; Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497776719855591431?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

It's kind of scary to think about what this could be.

[Edward64]

It's kind of scary to think about what this could be.

A contender below. Also read about hitting the dam which could flood and do massive damage.

French President Emmanuel Macron has asked his Belarus counterpart to demand that the country, Ukraine’s neighbor, quickly order Russian troops to leave, claiming Moscow has been given the green light to deploy nuclear arms there.

In a phone conversation Saturday, Macron denounced “the gravity of a decision that would authorize Russia to deploy nuclear arms on Belarus soil,” a statement by the presidential palace said.

Macron told Alexander Lukashenko that fraternity between the people of Belarus and Ukraine should lead Belarus to “refuse to be a vassal and an accomplice to Russia in the war against Ukraine,” the statement said.

[Edward64]

I don't know how this ends. But right now this feels like a completely unintended side effect of this in a way that could actually change the world for the next couple of decades

SI

I agree. Even if Putin wins Ukraine and creates a puppet state, he'll be a pariah to all but a handful of countries not already aligned/bordering Russia.

The international backlash has been fantastic and seems that international outcry been more widespread & serious in this invasion and not earlier Crimea or Georgia.

Probably because Ukraine borders NATO and we learn from the Crimea annexation. Georgia was probably too far away. In retrospect, think Biden was correct in warning the world every other day about the threat and Russia's plans. And/or maybe social media is more ubiquitous more than ever.

[Brian Swartz]

I hope all the positivity right now holds, but it feels premature to me. Unity in the face of crisis tends to evaporate not long after the crisis is over, and from the reports I've read it appears we haven't hit the worst of the fighting yet.

I'd like to say that I don't think Putin would use nuclear options, but I don't have confidence in that.

[sterlingice]

I hope all the positivity right now holds, but it feels premature to me. Unity in the face of crisis tends to evaporate not long after the crisis is over, and from the reports I've read it appears we haven't hit the worst of the fighting yet.

I'd like to say that I don't think Putin would use nuclear options, but I don't have confidence in that.

I agree on both counts but I'm ok being cautiously optimistic, even if it disappears

SI

[CrimsonFox]

Is just someone shooting Putin an option? Asking for a friend

[RainMaker]

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It's kind of scary to think about what this could be.

Our intelligence has been spot-on throughout the whole thing, so this is kind of scary. There have been stories about them going after dams and areas that store radioactive materials.
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[Edward64]

Is just someone shooting Putin an option? Asking for a friend

Think that's what western allies are hoping for.

I'd give a call to John Wick. He's dealt with the Russians before.

https://www.pewpewtactical.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/car-shooting-john-wick-768x404.jpg

[Edward64]

Germany is increasing defense spending above 2% of GDP or by 100B euros.

After 60-70 yeas, Germany has shown to be a model world citizen and time to take the military leadership role especially in European matters (with US supporting).

Germany to ramp up defense spending in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-ramp-up-defense-spending-in-response-to-russias-war-on-ukraine/)
Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Sunday announced a major boost to German military spending — the latest in a series of dramatic policy shifts by Berlin in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Speaking at an emergency session of the German parliament to discuss the war, Scholz said that his government would set up a special €100 billion fund to swiftly upgrade its armed forces and that Germany will in future adhere to the NATO goal of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense.

Describing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “a turning point in the history of our continent,” Scholz told lawmakers that “it is clear that we need to invest significantly more in the security of our country in order to protect our freedom and our democracy.”

“We will from now on, year for year, invest more than 2 percent of our gross domestic product in our defense,” Scholz said. His remarks were met with loud applause by lawmakers.

Germany currently spends around 1.5 percent of GDP on defense and the current coalition government had previously been reluctant to commit to the 2 percent target, despite pleas from NATO allies.

“We need planes that fly, ships that sail, and soldiers who are optimally equipped for their missions,” Scholz said in reference to the current state of the Bundeswehr, which has suffered from financial and equipment shortages for years and which was just this week described by army chief Alfons Mais as “more or less bare.”

The chancellor, a Social Democrat, added that such goals should be “well within reach given our size and importance in Europe.”

Scholz also justified Saturday’s historic volte-face by Berlin on arms deliveries to Ukraine, saying that “in response to Putin’s aggression, there could be have been no other choice.”

Scholz said Putin attacked Ukraine “for a single reason: The freedom of Ukrainians challenges his own oppressive regime.” He added: “This is inhuman, this is contrary to international law, this cannot be justified by anything or anyone.”

[Edward64]

Longest ATM line that I've seen. Supposedly a Moscow ATM. Like the McDs

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The Moscow bank run: a queue for a Tinkoff ATM in the Liga shopping center in Khimki. There are about 70 people in line. Eyewitnesses say the money in the ATM runs out within 40 minutes. <a href="https://twitter.com/bazabazon?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@bazabazon</a> <a href="https://t.co/MTMkEiCRHJ">pic.twitter.com/MTMkEiCRHJ</a></p>&mdash; Jason Corcoran (@jason_corcoran) <a href="https://twitter.com/jason_corcoran/status/1497889119917297665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[GrantDawg]

This is amazing. This looks to be a complete Russian mechanized column totally destroyed. That is a lot of metal destroyed.
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">And this is the road between Bucha and Irpin.<br>Part of my usual bike route in the Kyiv region.<br>Today it is a Russian Death Valley. <a href="https://t.co/qR79LZOcJM">pic.twitter.com/qR79LZOcJM</a></p>&mdash; Illia Ponomarenko (@IAPonomarenko) <a href="https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1497918774657355778?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[BigDPW]

I hope all the positivity right now holds, but it feels premature to me. Unity in the face of crisis tends to evaporate not long after the crisis is over, and from the reports I've read it appears we haven't hit the worst of the fighting yet.

I'd like to say that I don't think Putin would use nuclear options, but I don't have confidence in that.

I think we could all use a bit of unity and less polarization on both sides. Seems to me the moderate voices have been thoroughly down out via social media and conventional media over the last decade or so. I long for a time when we can have an honest debate and discussion and not take things so personally again.

I don't think we have lacked as much unity over the years as it seems and times like this seem to remind us of that. We simply don't allow each other to speak anymore and try to work to together with anyone that has a differing view. While things have been polarized and challenging domestically over the last few years we have forgotten how fortunate we are as a nation and how important the US is in maintaining global stability.

[Edward64]

Not confirmed but sure would be nice if it did happen. "convoy of 56 tanks" blown up seems optimistic though.

Ukraine to hold peace talks with Russia on border with Belarus | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10556813/President-lose-grip-power-doesnt-Ukraine-says-minister.html)
Russia was dealt a significant blow when a column of Chechen special forces sent to assassinate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky were blown up by locals just two days into their mission.

The armed group - famed for their barbaric violence and human rights abuses - are said to have been obliterated after their convoy of 56 tanks was blown to smithereens near Hostomel, just northeast of Kyiv, by Ukrainian missile fire on the second day of the Chechens' deployment. It is unclear how many died - but the number is likely to run into the hundreds.
:
Among the Chechens said to have been wiped out was general Magomed Tushaev. He was commander of the 141th motorized national guard brigade - Chechen head of state Ramzan Kadyrov's elite force.

Tushaev had also been pictured with Kadyrov, in a measure of his importance to the Chechen regime, which shot to notoriety in the west for hunting down, torturing and killing gay men.
https://en.memesrandom.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/image-642.png

[Edward64]

Saturday night live cold open. Pretty cool

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjE4_h0t7qI&ab_channel=SaturdayNightLive

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[Edward64]

Multiple sources saying there will be peace talks. Not too optimistic but maybe a good first step.

Ukraine’s president says Kyiv has agreed to send a delegation for talks “without preconditions” with Russian officials on the Ukraine-Belarus border.

“We agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River,” Zelenskyy said in a statement after holding a phone call with Lukashenko.

He did not give a precise time for the meeting, but said Lukashenko, a Putin ally, “has taken responsibility for ensuring that all planes, helicopters and missiles stationed on Belarusian territory remain on the ground during the Ukrainian delegation’s travel, talks and return.”

[flere-imsaho]

Roman Abramovich transferred control of Chelsea to the charitable foundation. He must fear having the team taken away by the UK government.

Do it.

Is that like the "charitable foundations" that "own" all the Waltons' art?

Pretty much. CFC is still owned by a company called "Fordstam" which is controlled by Abramovich. Further, Fordstam gets most of its funding from another company based in the British Virgin Islands, from where ownership gets a bit convoluted.

All this announcement means is that he's handing over day-to-day control, but given that Bruce Buck is chairman of both CFC & the CFC Foundation, that doesn't mean a lot.

It definitely feels like a defensive move to blunt calls for the government to step in. Not that I'd expect the Tories to ever do this. I mean I think they should nationalize all the clubs owned by sovereign wealth funds from regimes with human rights abuses and oligarchs whose wealth has dubious provenance (and also the Glazers, just because), but I'm not PM.


Renewables have their place, but we don't have the advances in battery storage necessary to rely on them right now. Doesn't mean we stop trying, but the cost of insecure energy, well, it means that terrible people like Putin have a lot more power than they should have.

Not a word on the thousands of drilling leases already granted by the U.S. goverment to oil companies that lie unused while the price of petroleum climbs? The U.S. could supply Europe with most of its energy needs if those already granted rights were in use.

Let's hear both sides of the conversation, Jim.

[Edward64]

I get sending $ but also sending fighter jets? I'd think Ukraine would need more Stingers & Javelins (and spec ops to help out). Hard to believe they could maintain fighter jets for any length of time. But Ukraine asked for them.

Individual EU countries have already been helping with weaponry but fighter jets seem to be on the next level.

https://www.axios.com/eu-weapons-ukraine-russia-invasion-331bfcbc-5193-47b0-8afb-03f194d95619.html
The European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of $500 million worth weapons to Ukraine, marking the first time in the bloc's history that it will send arms to a country under attack.

Why it matters: Longstanding policy taboos are falling across the EU because of Vladimir Putin's unprovoked assault on Ukraine. The new weapons program, which will be funded through the European Peace Facility, was announced Sunday alongside new sanctions on Russian aircraft, state media and the Belarus economy.

The latest: The EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said at press conference that member states will provide fighter jets to Ukraine, not just ammunition.
" Minister Kuleba has been asking us that they need the kind of fighter jets that the Ukrainian army is able to operate. And we know what kind of planes, and some member states have these kind of planes," Borell said, in what's likely a reference to Soviet-era jets possessed by Eastern European countries.

[JPhillips]

It's becoming a replay of the Spanish civil war in terms of volunteers and outside countries supplying weaponry all out in the open.

Even in a now best case scenario for Putin it's hard to see how this hasn't been an absolute disaster for him.

[Dawgfan19]

This is all excellent commentary, but the problem is that much of these posts are based on logic and common sense. The most chilling of the reports I have seen today is that of former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. She dealt with Putin in the Bush era. But she has recently said he is very different, "seems erratic" and has an "ever-deepening, delusional rendering of history".

It very difficult to predict the action of a mad man.

[Ksyrup]

Yep. Especially loved the news early today where Putin accused Ukraine of wasting an opportunity for talks. Desperate to extract yourself from a no-win situation maybe?

[Dawgfan19]

Desperate to extract yourself from a no-win situation maybe?

Agreed. I just pray the desperate act does not involve pulling the nuke trigger.

[Edward64]

This is all excellent commentary, but the problem is that much of these posts are based on logic and common sense. The most chilling of the reports I have seen today is that of former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. She dealt with Putin in the Bush era. But she has recently said he is very different, "seems erratic" and has an "ever-deepening, delusional rendering of history".

It very difficult to predict the action of a mad man.

The Trump virus!

[Dawgfan19]

The Trump virus!

As opposed to entering into political commentary, I really believe we need to pull together as a nation (and as a world) to confront evil. Riffs between the left and right only embolden pagan thugs like Putin.

What is really ironic is that Russia’s actions have done more to unite the world than any country or world organization has been able to accomplish in recent times. On one positive note, at least NATO and the world is reacting. For those of you who are familiar with WWII history, that did not occur when Hitler began his carnage until it was almost too late. On the downside, as I alluded to above, the bad guys have weapons of mass destruction this time.

[AlexB]

Fears 'paranoid' Putin has lost his mind as leader limits contact to inner circle - World News - Mirror Online (https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fears-paranoid-putin-lost-mind-26340870)

During his evening programme tonight, Russian state TV presenter Dmitry Kiselyov delivered a monologue in which he posed the question: "why do we need a world if Russia's not in it?"

He was considering President Putin’s announcement today that he is putting Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert.

"In total our submarines are capable of launching over 500 nuclear warheads, which guarantees the destruction of the US and all Nato countries to boot," he said on his Vesti Nedeli show.

"That's according to the principle 'why do we need a world if Russia's not in it?'

"Russia's nuclear weapons are also delivered by the fastest strategic bombers in the world," he said, adding that "we won't even talk about our Strategic Rocket Forces".

"In total, Russia's nuclear capability is the most powerful in the world," he said.

Let’s hope the Star Wars schemes work I guess.

Edit to add - the first link is from a notorious red-top scaremongering publication with a dodgy historical interpretation of facts. For those who are not aware.

The second quote is from the BBC live Ukraine feed, which I trust not to make up outright lies

[Solecismic]

I think we could all use a bit of unity and less polarization on both sides. Seems to me the moderate voices have been thoroughly down out via social media and conventional media over the last decade or so. I long for a time when we can have an honest debate and discussion and not take things so personally again.

I don't think we have lacked as much unity over the years as it seems and times like this seem to remind us of that. We simply don't allow each other to speak anymore and try to work to together with anyone that has a differing view. While things have been polarized and challenging domestically over the last few years we have forgotten how fortunate we are as a nation and how important the US is in maintaining global stability.

I agree. Even bringing this up lately leads to a chorus of, "but they deserve it - they truly are evil." So many people are in hives where all they hear is how awful their perceived opponents have become.

I think it's obvious that the end result is a country where the state news codifies these allegations. Russians are told to believe that Ukraine is an actual threat to bring a reign of terror to their homes.

Our power is in our freedom to assemble and discuss whatever we want to discuss. If it's a ludicrous idea, then calmly, evidence is produced that it's a ludicrous idea. If it isn't, perhaps opinions change. Russians do not have that power. I think many of our leaders have been selfish and unpatriotic in allowing people to think it's OK to abdicate that power.

So Russian "news" hosts, personally angry because their milllion-dollar Italian villas were confiscated, are now arguing that Russia itself is threatened and the world is better off without people, including Russians.

There's no end game to that mindset. We can only hope it's a bluff, because we have to call it.

[RainMaker]

As opposed to entering into political commentary, I really believe we need to pull together as a nation (and as a world) to confront evil. Riffs between the left and right only embolden pagan thugs like Putin.

One of the riffs between right and left is over Putin. One side has praised him and his allies. Has extensive financial ties to the country.

I know there is some major backtracking the past 48 hours, the two sides don't see eye to eye on whether Putin is an enemy or inspiration.

[RainMaker]

Saw someone set up a tracker for the oligarch's private jets. Should be interesting to see where some run off to in the next few weeks.

Russian Oligarchs Jets (@RUOligarchJets) | Twitter (https://twitter.com/RUOligarchJets)

[AlexB]

Small sample size, but to half-illustrate Jim’s point, a Bulgarian employee of my brother’s company believes RT’s news and says he Russian friends say Putin is ‘not that bad’…

I say half-illustrate as some people have no other news/reference points and you cannot blame people for beliefs based on limited information.

However, some people seem to voluntarily choose to believe something despite having the world at their fingertips. How you overcome that is difficult, but that does not mean we should not keep trying

[sterlingice]

Saw someone set up a tracker for the oligarch's private jets. Should be interesting to see where some run off to in the next few weeks.

Russian Oligarchs Jets (@RUOligarchJets) | Twitter (https://twitter.com/RUOligarchJets)

I haven't checked in a day or so but previously a bunch of them were in Switzerland. A handful were also in other financial centers like New York and London

SI

[RainMaker]

The guy who just landed in New Jersey was the dude who parked his yacht in front of the Statue of Liberty years back.

Rich oil tycoon pulls jackass move with his yacht (https://nypost.com/2017/06/15/russian-billionaires-yacht-ruining-tourists-pics-of-lady-liberty/)

[Edward64]

Kinda funny. Assume he's a Putin henchman.

Check out the dubbed video, about half-way down.

Prominent Putin propagandist rages on live TV about losing Italian villas because of sanctions | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10557153/Prominent-Putin-propagandist-rages-live-TV-losing-Italian-villas-sanctions.html)
Prominent Putin propagandist rages on live TV about losing his Italian villa - which is next to George Clooney's - because of sanctions over Russia's invasion of Ukraine
:
'I know from personal experience about the so-called "sacred property rights,"' Soloviev, 58, told the show's panel. ‘With every transaction, I was bringing paperwork demonstrating my official salary, income, I did it all.

'I bought it, paid crazy amount of taxes, I did everything,' he griped. 'And suddenly someone makes a decision that this journalist is now on the list of sanctions. And right away it affects your real estate. Wait a minute. But you told us that Europe has sacred property rights!'
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/02/27/15/54715203-10557153-image-m-17_1645973993830.jpg

https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/02/27/14/54715497-10557153-image-a-14_1645973869291.jpg
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/preview/mol/2022/02/27/1027900977729258527/636x382_MP4_1027900977729258527.mp4

[Izulde]

Reuters
3h ago / 2:36 PM CST
Swiss President Ignazio Cassis said on Sunday that it was "very probable" that neutral Switzerland would follow the European Union (EU) on Monday in sanctioning Russia and freezing Russian assets in the Alpine country.
Cassis, interviewed on French-language Swiss public television, said that the seven-member Federal Council would meet on Monday and review recommendations by the departments of finance and economy.
Asked whether Switzerland — a major financial center and commodities trading hub — would follow the EU in freezing Russian assets, he said: "It is very probable that the government will decide to do so tomorrow, but I cannot anticipate decisions not yet taken."

I feel like this is a pretty big deal. When a neutral country is likely to freeze your assets, you're losing the PR war badly.

[Atocep]

Small sample size, but to half-illustrate Jim’s point, a Bulgarian employee of my brother’s company believes RT’s news and says he Russian friends say Putin is ‘not that bad’…

I say half-illustrate as some people have no other news/reference points and you cannot blame people for beliefs based on limited information.

However, some people seem to voluntarily choose to believe something despite having the world at their fingertips. How you overcome that is difficult, but that does not mean we should not keep trying

I've seen a small handful of people in the US that are cheering on Russia and firmly believe Putin is fighting the deep state baby eaters in Ukraine.

[HerRealName]

I've seen a small handful of people in the US that are cheering on Russia and firmly believe Putin is fighting the deep state baby eaters in Ukraine.

From what I've seen, a very large number of Q'Annoners are pro-Putin and anti-Ukraine. I had to go on Facebook today to get to a link and I was a little surprised.

Edit, sorry but it's so crazy I have to share. This guy has barely ever left a 50 mile radius of his hometown. The image doesn't seem to be working so adding the link as well.

https://imgur.com/a/E9Q6z5w

https://imgur.com/a/E9Q6z5w

[sterlingice]

I've seen a small handful of people in the US that are cheering on Russia and firmly believe Putin is fighting the deep state baby eaters in Ukraine.

I know this may come as a shock, but the most popular right wing commentator in this country has routinely praised Putin (https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/02/tucker-carlson-vladimir-putin-praise) and the leader, kingmaker, and cult of personality former President continues to praise him (https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-praised-smart-putin-us-stupid-country-2022-2).

SI

[PilotMan]

I've seen a small handful of people in the US that are cheering on Russia and firmly believe Putin is fighting the deep state baby eaters in Ukraine.


I had someone ask me if I'd ever seen "RT" and I'm like yeah, of course, and he's like, yeah, they are really balanced and straight shooters, they don' t have all this political bs, they just have the facts, and I'm like, you know that's state owned, Russian propaganda, and they give the pov that the Russian govt wants you to have? And he's like like, well it's no different than the US news then, but it's better, and I'said, yeah, but the difference is that we have freedom of press here. So basically, this guy didn't think that FN was accurate enough and that RT was better. Propaganda works and it works great when one foreign political party has people shilling the point of view of your dear leader.

[Solecismic]

I'd hesitate to connect Trump to praise of Putin's current actions. Trump is all about himself, yes. He has no qualms about criticizing the current administration, which frankly people on both sides do with regularity. This is an ugly quality. But he isn't pro-Russia nuking the world.

I think this is an excellent example of what I was writing about. If we persist in this hate - this desire to connect people we hate to the worst the world has ever seen - then the politicians and the otherwise irrelevant personalities in the media win. If we give them power to make us hate, then we stop questioning the loss of civility or reason.

Is that a world even worth saving? Don't mistake this for praise of Putin, but maybe that puppet in the Russia media has a point, for all the wrong reasons. It's not a world without Russia that isn't worth having. It's a world without freedom or civility that's not worth having.

[RainMaker]

He illegally withheld military aid unless the country framed his political opponent's son. Surrounded himself with individuals with strong Russian ties, including a man who was convicted of laundering bribes to help halt Ukrainian independence. A man who ignored Russia's meddling in our elections. This on top of the endless praise heaped on Putin, even going so far as to state he trusted Putin more than his own country's intelligence.

As Russia's plan goes tits up and they become a pariah around the world, there will be A LOT of backtracking. We're already seeing the talking heads and politicians do a 180 in recent days. And a number of others willing to carry water for these people for some reason.

It's important to remember who those people are. You don't get to slink back after spending years propping up and placating that psychopath.

[sterlingice]

I'd hesitate to connect Trump to praise of Putin's current actions. Trump is all about himself, yes. He has no qualms about criticizing the current administration, which frankly people on both sides do with regularity. This is an ugly quality. But he isn't pro-Russia nuking the world.

I think this is an excellent example of what I was writing about. If we persist in this hate - this desire to connect people we hate to the worst the world has ever seen - then the politicians and the otherwise irrelevant personalities in the media win. If we give them power to make us hate, then we stop questioning the loss of civility or reason.

Is that a world even worth saving? Don't mistake this for praise of Putin, but maybe that puppet in the Russia media has a point, for all the wrong reasons. It's not a world without Russia that isn't worth having. It's a world without freedom or civility that's not worth having.

Yes, yes, both sides. A world without civility isn't worth having - that's definitely Hallmark worthy and definitely not bringing out the tone policing.

Trump is definitely a narcissist. And he likely was saying something self serving. And he took his time to praise Putin because it was self-serving. Is he pro nuking the world? Nope. That's one hell of a giant goalpost move. I said he was praising Putin even after the invasion, WHICH HE DID (link below).

I'm pretty sure even Putin isn't pro nuking the world: to him, it's just a tool in the tool kit. But Trump was quick to praise him for being smart while even a number of people in his own party were quick to distance themselves from Putin and literally all of the Western world including typically neutral countries like Switzerland or non-NATO Sweden and Finland (who, yeah, they have no love for Russia but they've avoided NATO so far) are all lining up in opposition.

I'm kindof getting tired when someone else keeps putting words in my mouth when it's pretty clear what I said and I can even quote it. It's like a few inches up on the page. The pearl clutching, false centrist, arbiter-of-decency rings really hollow when you have to move the argument all the way to "well, Trump isn't pro-Russia nuking the world". But I'm not the one who had to find the new midway point of the argument at "but at least he doesn't want the end of humanity" to get a fulcrum just to get in a snide "both sides" arguments.

Link mentioned above where all other living former Presidents of both parties forcefully condemn while Trump, the most recent and most influential, does not:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-donald-trump-george-w-bush-barack-obama-bill-clinton-jimmy-carter/

SI

[PilotMan]

It's the voices of the right wing media, from Bannon to Carlson, because those are the people who are continuing to emphasize and elevate those beliefs.
At least four times this week, Russian news reports have featured translated clips of Tucker Carlson or his guest Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democratic U.S. representative…. At 8 p.m. on Sunday, a primetime review of the week’s news presented by Dmitry Kiselev, a bombastic Putin favorite, featured remarks from the opening monologue of Carlson’s February 17 show, in which the American commentator trashed Ukraine’s government.
An hour later, the evening news program on Russia’s main state television channel used a longer excerpt from the same Carlson monologue and shaped its own report to amplify the Fox News host’s attack on a Democrat. In the original Fox News broadcast, Carlson had suggested that Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee who worked to arm Ukraine with Javelin anti-tank missiles, was only doing so because of donations from American defense contractors like Raytheon.
On Wednesday night, just hours before Putin ordered the attack on Ukraine to begin, two excerpts from Carlson’s most recent program were featured in Russian state television’s 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. news broadcasts…. Carlson’s comments were so welcome in Moscow that an excerpt from that rant with Russian subtitles was quickly produced by the Russian-language service of RT, the government-funded network formerly known as Russia Today.

[miami_fan]

I'd hesitate to connect Trump to praise of Putin's current actions. Trump is all about himself, yes. He has no qualms about criticizing the current administration, which frankly people on both sides do with regularity. This is an ugly quality. But he isn't pro-Russia nuking the world.

I think this is an excellent example of what I was writing about. If we persist in this hate - this desire to connect people we hate to the worst the world has ever seen - then the politicians and the otherwise irrelevant personalities in the media win. If we give them power to make us hate, then we stop questioning the loss of civility or reason.

Is that a world even worth saving? Don't mistake this for praise of Putin, but maybe that puppet in the Russia media has a point, for all the wrong reasons. It's not a world without Russia that isn't worth having. It's a world without freedom or civility that's not worth having.

But Jim, he did praise Putin. Nobody made that up. The praise came out of his mouth under his own free will. He has doubled and tripled down on the praise since the initial comments on Wednesday.

There is no reason to try and connect the words that Trump has said since Wednesday to Putin's actions today. I will wait for his comments on those. However, there is also no reason to not acknowledge that Trump praised Putin's actions up to today. Actions that the world in general find abhorrent Whether he did it as a way to criticize the current administration is irrelevant IMO. He can do the latter without doing the former. The "hate" ( I think that word is too strong in this case) is based on his commentary lacking civility and reason.

[Edward64]

I'd hesitate to connect Trump to praise of Putin's current actions. Trump is all about himself, yes. He has no qualms about criticizing the current administration, which frankly people on both sides do with regularity. This is an ugly quality. But he isn't pro-Russia nuking the world.

I think this is an excellent example of what I was writing about. If we persist in this hate - this desire to connect people we hate to the worst the world has ever seen - then the politicians and the otherwise irrelevant personalities in the media win. If we give them power to make us hate, then we stop questioning the loss of civility or reason.

Is that a world even worth saving? Don't mistake this for praise of Putin, but maybe that puppet in the Russia media has a point, for all the wrong reasons. It's not a world without Russia that isn't worth having. It's a world without freedom or civility that's not worth having.

I'm all for looking at both sides and trying to come up with a balanced view. I try to see the nuance to positions & differences, and try put them in context with degree, scale, significance etc.

It's clear to me that Trump does not get that grey area. He is a narcissist, he has shown it's all about him, etc. etc. This isn't a one time blip, it's a consistent pattern.

It's okay to hate some people. It's okay to not be civil to some people. I'm all for ignoring and not interacting with them (but obviously Trump is hard to ignore with his platform). Child abusers are at the top of my list. Trump is 2-3 notches down. Die-hard Trump supporters, I don't hate other than maybe the most extremists (but will take that on case by case basis). Unlike some of the more vocal folks on this board, I think 80-20 democrats probably don't hate die-hard Trump supporters and can be civil to them.

It's a world without freedom or civility that's not worth having.
A little too melodramatic for me. Taken literally, I agree. But we are nowhere close to that point.

[NobodyHere]

I'm okay forgoing a little civility against an invading army

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">People are using Google Maps to change the Russian Consulates into “Public Bathrooms”.<br>This is terrible and you definitely SHOULD NOT do this. <a href="https://t.co/EEa4Mme6Ri">pic.twitter.com/EEa4Mme6Ri</a></p>&mdash; Walter Masterson (@waltermasterson) <a href="https://twitter.com/waltermasterson/status/1498040644287320076?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 27, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Edward64]

Thought this was cute

Ukraine war: St Javelin and the missile that has become a symbol of Ukraine's resistance | Euronews (https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/02/27/ukraine-war-st-javelin-and-the-missile-that-has-become-a-symbol-of-ukraine-s-resistance)
Having started as a meme, St Javelin of Ukraine, as she is now known, is becoming an increasingly familiar sight on social media and elsewhere.

In her most recent iteration, the halo encircling her head is not the radiant gold you would expect from centuries of religious iconography but rather the blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag. Her flowing robes are green, reminiscent of khaki army fatigues. Rather than joined in prayer, her hands instead cradle a FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missile launcher.

The US-made, shoulder-fired weapon is being widely seen as pivotal to Ukraine's defence against Russia's ongoing invasion - and has been taken to the hearts of both fearful Ukrainians trapped inside the besieged country and the diaspora watching in horror outside its borders.
https://static.euronews.com/articles/stories/06/50/66/50/1100x619_cmsv2_31b4b47f-3471-579e-b2a3-ea9628ad26ab-6506650.jpg

[Edward64]

Supposedly 3+ mile Russian convoy headed towards Kyiv (have to start using the Ukrainian spelling). Reported by multiple sources.

Have to believe NATO advisors are on the ground with Ukraine command and will have a plan for this (really hope so).

Reddit - Dive into anything (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2y651/satellite_imagery_shows_325_mile_5_km_long/?sort=new)

[Solecismic]

I'm all for looking at both sides and trying to come up with a balanced view. I try to see the nuance to positions & differences, and try put them in context with degree, scale, significance etc.

It's clear to me that Trump does not get that grey area. He is a narcissist, he has shown it's all about him, etc. etc. This isn't a one time blip, it's a consistent pattern.

It's okay to hate some people. It's okay to not be civil to some people. I'm all for ignoring and not interacting with them (but obviously Trump is hard to ignore with his platform). Child abusers are at the top of my list. Trump is 2-3 notches down. Die-hard Trump supporters, I don't hate other than maybe the most extremists (but will take that on case by case basis). Unlike some of the more vocal folks on this board, I think 80-20 democrats probably don't hate die-hard Trump supporters and can be civil to them.


A little too melodramatic for me. Taken literally, I agree. But we are nowhere close to that point.

I'm referring to the online world, the "news" outlets, politicians. It needs to change.

I'm not telling you not to post or to move discussion to even more political items. I'm telling you this lack of civility is how we get from point A to point B. I am not anyone's enemy here.

Trump is never going to conform. At this point, he's a bigger liability for the Republicans than even that crazy congresswoman from Georgia. But he is not what the propaganda outlets claim he is. He doesn't have the attention or focus necessary to plot much of anything.

This "praise" is not praise nor endorsement - he's throwing out the view that Putin's invasion will work because the Democrats are too weak not to let him get away with it. He's praising himself, not Putin. Parsing his quoting of the word "smart" is simply saying that Biden isn't and Trump is - it's a slam on Biden. We've seen him do it 100 times in exactly the same way.

Still very unhelpful and inappropriate. I didn't vote for him in either 2016 or 2020 and I won't do it in 2024, should he decide to run again. But we got Trump because civility is so rare out there these days. And we'll get far worse if we don't learn from that lesson.

[RainMaker]

How is pointing out things the former President said and did "unhelpful and inappropriate"? He said them. He did them. They were direct too, not coded behind vague wording. And he has stood by what he said. You don't need to come up with excuses or alternative explanations. I don't know how much clearer he can be in his beliefs.

And no, Trump didn't come to power because of a lack of "civility". It's just an excuse your side uses because he does stuff you can't defend on merits. A way to get others to stop criticizing things you don't want them to.

What's uncivil is supporting psychopaths who will murder innocent people for money, power, or their own personal ego.

[RainMaker]

Supposedly 3+ mile Russian convoy headed towards Kyiv (have to start using the Ukrainian spelling). Reported by multiple sources.

Have to believe NATO advisors are on the ground with Ukraine command and will have a plan for this (really hope so).

Reddit - Dive into anything (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t2y651/satellite_imagery_shows_325_mile_5_km_long/?sort=new)

Vehicles bunched up like that with no air support. They are begging to be wiped out.

Looks like Belarus is sending in troops. (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/belarus-troops-ukraine-russia-invasion-b2024635.html)Going to be real tough for Ukraine to hold on.

[RainMaker]

The ruble is down 41% against the USD today. Inflation nearing 70%. That is a country teetering on the verge of complete economic collapse.

Either that leads to Putin "resigning due to poor health" or him doing something really bad.

[Solecismic]

How is pointing out things the former President said and did "unhelpful and inappropriate"? He said them. He did them. They were direct too, not coded behind vague wording. And he has stood by what he said. You don't need to come up with excuses or alternative explanations. I don't know how much clearer he can be in his beliefs.

And no, Trump didn't come to power because of a lack of "civility". It's just an excuse your side uses because he does stuff you can't defend on merits. A way to get others to stop criticizing things you don't want them to.

What's uncivil is supporting psychopaths who will murder innocent people for money, power, or their own personal ego.

My side? I've made it clear that I am not a Republican and I have never voted Republican. I have noticed in you a tendency to make connections, much like a game of telephone. What I'm doing is not support. These wild accusations about my politics and motivations are not civilized or helpful.

I've also pointed out some of Trump's quotes myself. Where it goes off the rails is creating motivations for Trump or his supporters or even people who just plain don't like what you're posting that require connections that cannot be established. Just like when people were accusing Aaron Rodgers of white supremacy. That's how CNN/Fox style propaganda works.

We get politicians like Trump when we stop debating and start throwing that shit around. Because he stands up to it. He throws it right back at you. He loves that stuff.

[RainMaker]

You're not looking for a debate. When someone says something you disagree with, you go on with the same rant about how people aren't civil. Maybe toss in a strawman about people saying Trump wants Russia to nuke the world or people called Aaron Rodgers a white supremacist. You're not debating, just trying to avoid having to defend something.

I don't even know what you'd be looking to debate. Trump is probably the most direct, unfiltered politicians we've ever had. He has almost a decade of documented praise for Putin and his handling of the country (including the Crimea invasion). Has stated multiple times he trusts Putin more than our own law enforcement, military members, and government.

Maybe you have secret inside into what he really means. But I think he's been very clear with where he stands on Russia and Putin.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Link mentioned above where all other living former Presidents of both parties forcefully condemn while Trump, the most recent and most influential, does not:

Makes Trump look good considering the company that'd be. Hell, it's even got the two worst presidents in U.S. history on there.

Elder Bush is the only one I'd piss on if he caught fire, and tbh I'd forgotten he was even still alive..

[Solecismic]

You're not looking for a debate. When someone says something you disagree with, you go on with the same rant about how people aren't civil. Maybe toss in a strawman about people saying Trump wants Russia to nuke the world or people called Aaron Rodgers a white supremacist. You're not debating, just trying to avoid having to defend something.



Debate is not about trying to guess someone's motivations or a game of telephone connecting every attempt to discuss an actual issue to something entirely different.

I don't know. Do you like things this way? Does the argument that we'd have higher vaccination rates if politicians and media personalities stopped demonizing everyone bother you that much that you have to make those constant accusations that have nothing to do with the issues?

Why does it upset you so much when people say civility is very important?

the two sides don't see eye to eye on whether Putin is an enemy or inspiration.

When you throw something like that in here, what do you expect in response? Maybe it's pointless to ask. I'll stop now. I don't think it's worth going back and forth anymore.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And I simply dropped in to point out that, given the performance of the Russian military over the past week, they may want to start brushing up on their Chinese.

[RainMaker]

Why does it upset you so much when people say civility is very important?

It doesn't. There's nothing uncivil going on here. Just something you brought up after people pointed out statements the previous President made.

When you throw something like that in here, what do you expect in response? Maybe it's pointless to ask. I'll stop now. I don't think it's worth going back and forth anymore.

Besides the decade-long praise Trump has heaped on Putin, you have a Senator who recently called our military pansies in comparison to Russia (that one didn't age well), and a couple of Congressman speaking at a white nationalist conference this week where they praised Putin (even chanted his name!). Heck, Trump's former Chief of Staff has been very open about the US supporting Putin in this war.

I'm not including the vast number of former advisors, politicians, and media personalities who have shown support for Russia and Putin.

[RainMaker]

And I simply dropped in to point out that, given the performance of the Russian military over the past week, they may want to start brushing up on their Chinese.

If I have been buying military equipment from Russia like India, I would not feel great about things. For all the talk about the T-90, they seem to be struggling real bad in this war.

[RainMaker]

Nice! Go Elon Musk

(you might redeem your asshole image with this assuming you don't revert back after).

Elon Musk activates Starlink satellites to give Ukraine data backup – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/elon-musk-activates-starlink-satellites-to-give-ukraine-data-backup/)

I don't know why media outlets keep falling for this. There are no ground stations in the Ukraine right now. Not a single byte is being transferred from Ukraine through Starlink at the moment.

Maybe they'll be ready when those ventilators show up and that cool submarine saves those kids.

[CrimsonFox]

Thought this was cute

Ukraine war: St Javelin and the missile that has become a symbol of Ukraine's resistance | Euronews (https://www.euronews.com/next/2022/02/27/ukraine-war-st-javelin-and-the-missile-that-has-become-a-symbol-of-ukraine-s-resistance)

https://static.euronews.com/articles/stories/06/50/66/50/1100x619_cmsv2_31b4b47f-3471-579e-b2a3-ea9628ad26ab-6506650.jpg

wait this is real?

[RainMaker]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Russian forces have started using MLRS cluster artillery to indiscriminately attack cities. <br><br>This shows them bombarding the centre of Kharkiv.🇺🇦<br><br>Use of such inaccurate and indiscriminate weapons in a civilian area very probably constitutes a war crime.<a href="https://t.co/5ykQzLZnBD">pic.twitter.com/5ykQzLZnBD</a></p>&mdash; Jimmy (@JimmySecUK) <a href="https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1498236171666788352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[BYU 14]

you have a Senator who recently called our military pansies in comparison to Russia (that one didn't age well), and a couple of Congressman speaking at a white nationalist conference this week where they praised Putin (even chanted his name!).

.

Its hard to keep up on all the idiocy that resides in the halls of our government right now, who the fuck said that?

[HerRealName]

Its hard to keep up on all the idiocy that resides in the halls of our government right now, who the fuck said that?

The shame of Texas... Well, one of the many politicians that shame Texas. I think he called our military woke and emasculated or something ridiculous.

[GrantDawg]

Its hard to keep up on all the idiocy that resides in the halls of our government right now, who the fuck said that?
Ted Cruz. He literally used it in an ad that looked like a Russian recruiting commercial.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/05/21/ted-cruz-russia-army-emasculated/


The president of Ukraine asking for immediate acceptance into NATO. That is obviously not going to happen but there isn't a single NATO country wanting to to this crisis into WW3. The financial sanctions are more brazen than I thought Germany would go. I am not sure Putin wouldn't go beyond conventional weapons if he felt Russian land was in danger of attack.

As well as it has gone for the Ukraine so far, if Putin does find a way to weather the storm of economic disaster I am not sure how long Ukraine can hold out. I am not sure how much the population is still in cities, but it look like a good number. Starvation is going to start becoming a real problem in the coming weeks. Russia has the large population centers encircled. It is going to be near impossible to get the amount of food/medicine needed to keep people fed.

[Flasch186]

For the first time in this I think we very well could be seeing ww3 slow churn.

Belarus joining in would be a block out of the Jenga tower. One country says they&rsquo;re sending troops on the &ldquo;allies&rdquo; side and we&rsquo;re going to tip over I&rsquo;m afraid.

So sad


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[sterlingice]

The shame of Texas... Well, one of the many politicians that shame Texas. I think he called our military woke and emasculated or something ridiculous.

You'll have to be more specific here. We have many - it's one of our primary exports. :p

(yes, I know, someone posted it above but I just had to say it)

SI

[JPhillips]

Putin's giant table and fear of being in close proximity to anyone is not reassuring. There's a definite crazy super villain vibe going on.

[sterlingice]

And I simply dropped in to point out that, given the performance of the Russian military over the past week, they may want to start brushing up on their Chinese.

I figured when this started, China was going to slowly position Russia to become their new attack dog, replacing North Korea with something much bigger. But I figured they would be more akin to WW2 Italy to China's Germany. Russia was going to get increasingly cut off from the rest of the world so they'd have to get addicted to Chinese debt and watch their resources get sucked dry. This war is not helping them as I'm sure China is going "maybe they're not as useful as we though". I wonder how they've adjusted their 50 and 100 year strategic plans (I just figure China has something like that that's kindof realistic while most of ours are more pie-in-the-sky). That said, I'm sure China is also like "Russia's big but a lot of that land is really useless" and they have no desire to go in and just take it wholesale. Maybe they'll start annexing part, saying there are ethnic Chinese there.

SI

[PilotMan]

If China and Russia did go to war would the world step in and do anything?

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/82002981.jpg

[sterlingice]

If China and Russia did go to war would the world step in and do anything?

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/82002981.jpg

I don't think China would dare, especially right now. It's more of a long term plan next time there is global upheaval.

SI

[Flasch186]

I think China is the only country that can talk some sense into this and I'm not sure that they want to yet but there's a chance that they'll want to come in as heroes at some point possibly.

[Atocep]

If I have been buying military equipment from Russia like India, I would not feel great about things. For all the talk about the T-90, they seem to be struggling real bad in this war.

Tanks are only as good as their ground support and are awful in urban environments. Armor has usually been a strength of the Russian military but people have learned how to negate their effectiveness in urban and guerrilla conflicts. Not to mention we've been pouring AT4s into Ukraine and they're capable is disabling any tank.

Again, horrible strategic planning on Russia's part.

[sterlingice]

Tanks are only as good as their ground support and are awful in urban environments. Armor has usually been a strength of the Russian military but people have learned how to negate their effectiveness in urban and guerrilla conflicts. Not to mention we've been pouring AT4s into Ukraine and they're capable is disabling any tank.

Again, horrible strategic planning on Russia's part.

When you mostly have hammers, you hope the enemy looks like a nail

SI

[molson]

I wonder what the scope of these talks today were. What would Russia "accept" to get out of this now, and is that worth giving with how poorly things seem to be going for them, especially economically?

You can't replace the lives lost, but Russia being crippled will also save lives. So where to you put that line.

[sterlingice]

I wonder what the scope of these talks today were. What would Russia "accept" to get out of this now, and is that worth giving with how poorly things seem to be going for them, especially economically?

You can't replace the lives lost, but Russia being crippled will also save lives. So where to you put that line.

You figure the two sides look something like this

Ukrainian document: "Immediate cease fire and leave our country"

Russian document: Declare the two states independent, surrender your government, and allow us to keep a military presence in your country"

When Russia throws out the "this is our final offer for today" line, the Ukrainians have to be like "GTFO"

SI

[Lathum]

I wonder what the scope of these talks today were. What would Russia "accept" to get out of this now, and is that worth giving with how poorly things seem to be going for them, especially economically?

You can't replace the lives lost, but Russia being crippled will also save lives. So where to you put that line.

At thins point I don't think Ukraine is willing to concede anything.

I think Putin really thought he would intimidate Zelensky to step down through a show of force then install a puppet regime. Once that didn't happen his hand was forced into launching what has clearly been a half assed invasion. Now that it's going so poorly I think we really all need to be concerned with what his next move is, because at this point there is no clear off ramp for him.

[sterlingice]

At thins point I don't think Ukraine is willing to concede anything.

I think Putin really thought he would intimidate Zelensky to step down through a show of force then install a puppet regime. Once that didn't happen his hand was forced into launching what has clearly been a half assed invasion. Now that it's going so poorly I think we really all need to be concerned with what his next move is, because at this point there is no clear off ramp for him.

Exactly. I think that prior to the invasion, the worst case off ramp was to take the two states and call it a day. He didn't think he'd be in any position where he couldn't fall back to that. And if you're Zelenskyy, you can't accept that offer, especially now, after how well they've been fighting. But if you're Russia, where do you go from here? Long, protracted war with a crippled economy and no life line? And if Putin withdraws, tail tucked between legs, he's probably not alive much longer, right?

SI

[Lathum]

Not sure he is alive much longer anyway unless things take a massive turn.

Maybe I am being a bit too "thriller movie" but you have to think the oligarchs have all kinds of people planted in government that would be willing to lead a charge to overthrow him, especially once the effects from sanctions really hit home. That doesn't even account for all the domestic unrest right around the corner for him.

[sovereignstar v2]

FIFA and UEFA have banned Russian soccer clubs (domestic and their national team) from competing in European and international competitions. Russia was set to play Poland next month for a spot in the 2022 World Cup.

[bhlloy]

When the IOC and FIFA are kicking a country out of all competitions, you know we are in dogs and cats getting along territory.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I don't know why media outlets keep falling for this.

The media and reality have only a fleeting acquaintance at best in many situations, why would this one be any different?

[albionmoonlight]

Exactly. I think that prior to the invasion, the worst case off ramp was to take the two states and call it a day. He didn't think he'd be in any position where he couldn't fall back to that. And if you're Zelenskyy, you can't accept that offer, especially now, after how well they've been fighting. But if you're Russia, where do you go from here? Long, protracted war with a crippled economy and no life line? And if Putin withdraws, tail tucked between legs, he's probably not alive much longer, right?

SI

Yeah. When the sabre rattling all started, it seemed like it would end with Russia getting a stronger foothold into Ukraine, but the West could turn a blind eye and pretend that it was all fine.

But Russia has fucked this up so badly that they have not left themselves any face-saving options like that. Which means that they can't turn tail and go home. Which means either a protracted war on the civilians of Ukraine or worse (nukes, etc.). Putin is crazy, and maybe he'd rather blow up the world than be embarrassed.

We really need some Russian general or minister or something to assassinate Putin.

[JonInMiddleGA]

That said, I'm sure China is also like "Russia's big but a lot of that land is really useless" and they have no desire to go in and just take it wholesale.

After the past week, I think that might actually be the #1 thing saving Russia from getting steamrolled. (along with the fact that that useless land would be the first stuff taken)

[lungs]

If this continues to blow up in Russia’s face, should Russian withdrawal from Crimea be on the table?

[molson]

When the IOC and FIFA are kicking a country out of all competitions, you know we are in dogs and cats getting along territory.

FIFA said they weren't going to do anything with regard to the World Cup, but Poland, Sweden, and the Czech Republic kind of forced their hand.

If FIFA continued on it probably would have been a 3-team World Cup with Russia, UAE, and Belarus.

[sterlingice]

I don't know why media outlets keep falling for this. There are no ground stations in the Ukraine right now. Not a single byte is being transferred from Ukraine through Starlink at the moment.

Maybe they'll be ready when those ventilators show up and that cool submarine saves those kids.

Lordy, I had forgotten about the submarine car. But, hey, he's one of those heroic entrepreneurs, geniuses of his time, and bootstraps and stuff. And he smokes pot on the radio so he's just like me.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

And he smokes pot on the radio so he's just like me.

Reminded me of this oldie but goodie

"I object to all this sex on the television. I mean, I keep falling off."

[GrantDawg]

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but what happens if this all turns? What it looks like to me is that Putin expected a quick surrender and sort of half-assed the invasion. Now, I think they are starting to really pour in troops and hitting soft targets to weaken resistance before they bring in overwhelming numbers. If Kyiv falls in a couple of days. If the Ukrainian president is captured, or more likely shot. What happens then?

[RainMaker]

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but what happens if this all turns? What it looks like to me is that Putin expected a quick surrender and sort of half-assed the invasion. Now, I think they are starting to really pour in troops and hitting soft targets to weaken resistance before they bring in overwhelming numbers. If Kyiv falls in a couple of days. If the Ukrainian president is captured, or more likely shot. What happens then?

I think more of the same. Sanctions, although not against the people that matter. Russia would be largely isolated from the world.

Also, taking a country is one thing, holding it is another. And I think the strategy from the West would be to wait it out. Can Russia keep down a well-funded, well-armed insurgency while their economy bleeds out?

No matter what happens militarily, I don't think it can be overstated how devastating this has been to their economy.

[sterlingice]

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but what happens if this all turns? What it looks like to me is that Putin expected a quick surrender and sort of half-assed the invasion. Now, I think they are starting to really pour in troops and hitting soft targets to weaken resistance before they bring in overwhelming numbers. If Kyiv falls in a couple of days. If the Ukrainian president is captured, or more likely shot. What happens then?

It also looked like they were trying to go "minimal casualty", as much as you can during wartime. Yes, there were some civilians killed, but they looked a lot more like accidental attacks not deliberate. They were hoping to just take over the Ukrainian government and leave most things intact - better to not have to use your own money to rebuild your future colonies. It feels like in the last 48 hours, Putin may have pivoted to actually wiping the Ukrainians off the face of the earth, even without using nukes. He called in the Chechens with the brutal reputation (and they were promptly killed). There's been more targeting of civilians, more hits on infrastructure like the gas pipelines and storage, etc. If he wants to ratchet things up, direct fighting towards some more critical areas "accidentally" hit that dam which takes out electricity and floods a number of towns, hit the nuclear waste supply depots, fight near water treatment plants and accidentally cripple those - that sort of thing.

I really have no idea where this goes from Putin getting "suicided" to protracted war with atrocities to more strategic goals where Russia pulls back from fortified Kiev and concentrates on the eastern part of the country.

SI

[bhlloy]

Short term - Russia annexes the Donbass regions, installs pro-Russia lackey, deploys nukes to Ukraine and half his army along the borders with NATO countries, digs in for Afghanistan 2.0

Long term - lots of brinksmanship, worst case is North Korea with the second largest nuclear power in the world who can wipe any country off the map if they so choose. Hopefully China stays out of it and doesn’t do something similar with Taiwan while the west is focused on Europe not getting overrun again.

Only way out of this appears to be somebody deposing Putin somehow, maybe a collection of oligarchs and military who say enough is enough. I have no idea how realistic that really is though.

[MIJB#19]

FIFA and UEFA have banned Russian soccer clubs (domestic and their national team) from competing in European and international competitions. Russia was set to play Poland next month for a spot in the 2022 World Cup.That's quite to decision for them.
For the past 8 years they just stuck with "we visibly manipulate the draws to keep Ukraine and Russia from playing in the same group" approach.

[Flasch186]

Some would say the Afghan insurgency has always been funded by Russia while we were there

Perhaps we do the same in Ukraine


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[NobodyHere]

I don't know why media outlets keep falling for this. There are no ground stations in the Ukraine right now. Not a single byte is being transferred from Ukraine through Starlink at the moment.

Maybe they'll be ready when those ventilators show up and that cool submarine saves those kids.

FWIW

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Starlink — here. Thanks, <a href="https://twitter.com/elonmusk?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@elonmusk</a> <a href="https://t.co/dZbaYqWYCf">pic.twitter.com/dZbaYqWYCf</a></p>&mdash; Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) <a href="https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1498392515262746630?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RainMaker]

FWIW

<iframe id="twitter-widget-0" scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" class="" style="position: static; visibility: visible; width: 507px; height: 709px; display: block; flex-grow: 1;" title="Twitter Tweet" src="https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1498392515262746630&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.operationsports.com%2Ffofc%2Fnewreply.php%3Fdo%3Dnewreply%26p%3D3361632&sessionId=fb17bfff0e2e69ab82e6c5665586af3ff66dd64f&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2582c61%3A1645036219416&width=550px" data-tweet-id="1498392515262746630" frameborder="0"></iframe>
<script async="" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

That's cool. He came through. US government should be promoting this tech in countries that try to restrict internet access.

Also seen the idea of using high-altitude hot air balloons (Google was testing it but eventually scrapped it). Probably easy to take down, but they're cheap and you can probably stay ahead of the curve. Something the DoD could use a tiny fraction of their budget on.
<iframe scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets/widget_iframe.a58e82e150afc25eb5372dd55a98b778.html?origin=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.operationsports.com" title="Twitter settings iframe" style="display: none;" frameborder="0"></iframe><iframe id="rufous-sandbox" scrolling="no" allowtransparency="true" allowfullscreen="true" style="position: absolute; visibility: hidden; display: none; width: 0px; height: 0px; padding: 0px; border: medium none;" title="Twitter analytics iframe" frameborder="0"></iframe>

[RainMaker]

lol they left Abramovich off the list.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/85d76bd6-f585-4ac9-abae-b9abbf21e4bf)

[Atocep]

I think the Biden Administration has overall done a pretty good job handling this. Presenting the intel to the public and other countries well ahead of time was brilliant and has made it impossible for Russia to control the narrative. I think it played a role in throwing Putin off.

It can argued how much of it should be credited to the the US, but everyone getting on the same page with sanctions and condemning this is also they deserve some praise for. Again, the US wasn't the only country making this happen but we didn't fuck it up.

Also, when people wonder why we're sending $400 million in aid to Ukraine this is the answer. This aid was money well spent.

[Solecismic]

Sadly, there's apparently a 17-mile-long convoy moving toward Kyiv for tonight's attack. And rumors that they've already used that MOAB at least once.

This is starting to feel like a sick game of Tower defense down that road from Belarus. How can Kyiv can hold up much longer? Putin's just going to keep upping the attack - they still have some of the original troops in position ready to go, and more can be sent. Once he decided it was OK to randomly shoot at civilians, how does this stop?

[PilotMan]

I think more of the same. Sanctions, although not against the people that matter. Russia would be largely isolated from the world.

Also, taking a country is one thing, holding it is another. And I think the strategy from the West would be to wait it out. Can Russia keep down a well-funded, well-armed insurgency while their economy bleeds out?

No matter what happens militarily, I don't think it can be overstated how devastating this has been to their economy.

And this is 100% the right play imo

[PilotMan]

Sadly, there's apparently a 17-mile-long convoy moving toward Kyiv for tonight's attack. And rumors that they've already used that MOAB at least once.

This is starting to feel like a sick game of Tower defense down that road from Belarus. How can Kyiv can hold up much longer? Putin's just going to keep upping the attack - they still have some of the original troops in position ready to go, and more can be sent. Once he decided it was OK to randomly shoot at civilians, how does this stop?

This is how it was always going to be.

It's a steady press. One side has more power, resources, and tech, and has been waging a war to destabilize their opponents for close to 10 years already. Time is on the side of the Russians, it's really just a matter of time.

[molson]

I'm starting to see a lot of war footage on reddit and twitter. I think a few days ago there just wasn't much going on in the cities yet.

Edit: Based on some of the footage, and cell phone text messages from a dead Russian solider that a Ukrainian ambassador read at the U.N., it seems like at least some of the Russian soldiers didn't understand that this was going to be a war (and that they were a part of an invasion).

I saw another clip of a Ukrainian soldier who came across an invading Russian soldier's food rations - which expired in 2015.

[miami_fan]

Sadly, there's apparently a 17-mile-long convoy moving toward Kyiv for tonight's attack. And rumors that they've already used that MOAB at least once.

This is starting to feel like a sick game of Tower defense down that road from Belarus. How can Kyiv can hold up much longer? Putin's just going to keep upping the attack - they still have some of the original troops in position ready to go, and more can be sent. Once he decided it was OK to randomly shoot at civilians, how does this stop?

Russia has approximately 900,000 active personnel and a further two million reservists, compared to Ukraine's 196,000 active troops and 900,000 reservists. If no other country is going to add to Ukraine's fighting capability, the result is inevitable.

The only thing that could stop it is if Putin decides to pull back. Given that the situation can't be any more embarrassing to include if he pulled back, Putin is going to see this all the way through no matter what.

[flere-imsaho]

That said, I'm sure China is also like "Russia's big but a lot of that land is really useless" and they have no desire to go in and just take it wholesale. Maybe they'll start annexing part, saying there are ethnic Chinese there.

I think a lot of that unpopulated land actually has a lot of natural resources, including petroleum, uranium, and rare earth metals (IIRC, I could be wrong).

[sabotai]

A lot of that useless land is going to become very useful in about 100 years or so.

[bob]

It’s really odd to me that we can be providing weapons (giving, not selling) to the direct opponent of Russia, out in the open, yet not be considered in war with them ourselves.

[RainMaker]

I'm starting to see a lot of war footage on reddit and twitter. I think a few days ago there just wasn't much going on in the cities yet.

Edit: Based on some of the footage, and cell phone text messages from a dead Russian solider that a Ukrainian ambassador read at the U.N., it seems like at least some of the Russian soldiers didn't understand that this was going to be a war (and that they were a part of an invasion).

I saw another clip of a Ukrainian soldier who came across an invading Russian soldier's food rations - which expired in 2015.

There is a lot on Telegram. The stuff on Twitter and Facebook has mostly been pulled from there. Telegram is much more secure and trustworthy than Twitter and Facebok. Remember the data those companies collect.

[Edward64]

FWIW


Great work in 2-3 days!

Still an ass but rooting for him to win back some haters and, of course, continue the electric car revolution, lessening our reliance on ME, and growth of private enterprise in space.

[Edward64]

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but what happens if this all turns? What it looks like to me is that Putin expected a quick surrender and sort of half-assed the invasion. Now, I think they are starting to really pour in troops and hitting soft targets to weaken resistance before they bring in overwhelming numbers. If Kyiv falls in a couple of days. If the Ukrainian president is captured, or more likely shot. What happens then?

Best case, Russia calls it quits are the economy craters and world opinion becomes too much. They'll still keep the 2 friendly regions and call it a win.

Likely case. Russia is eventually able to overwhelm Ukraine. EU/NATO/UN creates some sort of "safe zone/buffer" to protect remaining Ukrainian forces and civilians. Russia installs friendly government, struggles with economy, and fights low intensity conflict for the next several years.

[Brian Swartz]

It’s really odd to me that we can be providing weapons (giving, not selling) to the direct opponent of Russia, out in the open, yet not be considered in war with them ourselves.

The line between war and peace has become increasingly blurry in modern times, I would say mostly intentionally. It's hard to articulate where the line is, and if a leader doesn't have the legal authority to declare war themselves, it's easier to just conduct various 'war-lite' actions and never call it that.

[Edward64]

Russia has approximately 900,000 active personnel and a further two million reservists, compared to Ukraine's 196,000 active troops and 900,000 reservists. If no other country is going to add to Ukraine's fighting capability, the result is inevitable.

The only thing that could stop it is if Putin decides to pull back. Given that the situation can't be any more embarrassing to include if he pulled back, Putin is going to see this all the way through no matter what.

From what I recall, Russia have approx < 200K for the invasion. True they can redeploy some of the remaining 700K but there may not be enough time before Putin has to call uncle.

The 17 mile convoy looks like a major push. If they get to Kyiv without being substantially depleted, my guess is Kyiv is done for. Don't know the terrain and the air superiority situation, but you'd think US/Kyiv would find a way to stop it.

[Edward64]

It’s really odd to me that we can be providing weapons (giving, not selling) to the direct opponent of Russia, out in the open, yet not be considered in war with them ourselves.

Arms and very likely helping plan & coordinate the defenses. So war by proxy right now and there's plenty of precedence (Vietnam, Korea, Iraq etc.).

The red line is boots on the ground or air unless its to establish a "safe zone" for humanitarian reasons.

I wish we had provided and trained them on our drones. But the Turkish ones seems to be doing a good job.

[Edward64]

Seems to summarize much better than MSM and reddit.

Still rooting for Ukraine but am pessimistic after reading the article.

Ukraine Conflict Update 11 | Institute for the Study of War (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-11)
The next major phase of Russian offensive operations will likely begin within the next 24 hours and play out over the ensuing 48-72 hours. Ukrainian resistance remains remarkably effective and Russian operations, especially on the Kyiv axis, have been poorly coordinated and executed, leading to significant Russian failures on that axis and at Kharkiv. Russian forces remain much larger and more capable than Ukraine’s conventional military, however, and Russian advances in southern Ukraine threaten to unhinge the defense of Kyiv and northeastern Ukraine if they continue unchecked.

Russian ground forces are advancing on four primary axes and a possible fifth axis, discussed in turn below:

1) Kyiv Axis: Russia deployed additional heavy forces and artillery it has so far failed to employ in assaults on the city to the western approach to Kyiv on February 27-28. Russian forces will likely launch a renewed assault on western Kyiv on March 1. Attacks by Russian light forces on the outskirts of the city failed to make progress on February 28. Ukrainian forces are unlikely to capitulate.

2) Northeast Axis: Russian forces began using heavy artillery against central Kharkiv on February 28, indicating a dangerous inflection in Russian operations as the Kremlin chooses to use air and artillery assets it has held in reserve to date. Russian forces additionally resumed limited advances in northeastern Ukraine on February 28 after an operational pause on February 26-27.

3) Donbas Axis: Russian and proxy forces resumed assaults on Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol from the east and deployed additional artillery and anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) assets to the Mariupol front line on February 28. Russian forces may attempt a renewed assault on Mariupol in the coming days. Russian forces likely intend to pin Ukrainian forces in place on the line of contact to enable Russian forces breaking out of Crimea to isolate them.

4) Crimea Axis: Russian forces continued limited advances on two axes out of Crimea—north toward Zaprozhia and west toward Mykolayiv, reaching the outskirts of Mykolayiv on February 28. Russia may struggle to fully supply both axes of advance and may be forced to choose which advance to prioritize.

5) Russian and Belarusian forces may be preparing for an additional line of advance from Belarus into Western Ukraine. The Belarusian 38th Air Assault Brigade deployed to Kobryn, near Brest in southwestern Belarus, on February 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 28 that there is a high likelihood of Belarusian forces joining Russian operations. ISW previously reported a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin, Belarus, on February 25 to support a possible advance into Rivne Oblast in western Ukraine. A Russian offensive in western Ukraine would likely seek to cut Ukraine off from ground shipments of Western aid through Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. However, Belarusian airborne forces would likely face similar difficulties to previous, failed, Russian airborne operations against Kyiv if they attempted airdrops.

[NobodyHere]

If only this was true, the war would be over in a day:

Did Pornhub Block Russian Users? | Snopes.com (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/did-pornhub-block-russian-users/)

[miami_fan]

From what I recall, Russia have approx < 200K for the invasion. True they can redeploy some of the remaining 700K but there may not be enough time before Putin has to call uncle.

The 17 mile convoy looks like a major push. If they get to Kyiv without being substantially depleted, my guess is Kyiv is done for. Don't know the terrain and the air superiority situation, but you'd think US/Kyiv would find a way to stop it.

Unless someone else gets involved alongside of Ukraine, I don't see any circumstance that would force Putin to quit this mission. Maybe the US or the EU throw him a lifeline that he could spin into him giving Ukraine a break but I don't think that is likely.

Putin does not strike me as a guy who is overly concerned about too many of his troops dying so if he needs to send in more troops to get the job done, he will. I believe that the objective of this invasion was for Putin to flex his military might and putting on his "Shock and Awe" campaign. He has failed to meet that objective. I don't see how he can remain in power if he were to stop before taking control of Ukraine.

[Edward64]

Unless someone else gets involved alongside of Ukraine, I don't see any circumstance that would force Putin to quit this mission. Maybe the US or the EU throw him a lifeline that he could spin into him giving Ukraine a break but I don't think that is likely.

Putin does not strike me as a guy who is overly concerned about too many of his troops dying so if he needs to send in more troops to get the job done, he will. I believe that the objective of this invasion was for Putin to flex his military might and putting on his "Shock and Awe" campaign. He has failed to meet that objective. I don't see how he can remain in power if he were to stop before taking control of Ukraine.

My optimistic self is hoping that with the flood of armaments, continued intel, and whatever else US/NATO is doing on the down low, that Ukraine can hold.

It's pretty obvious to me that without the new weapons, intel etc. Ukraine would have fallen already. But time is not on Putin's side.

So yeah, he can rush another 200K troops into the theatre but it'll take some time to get there. And its not just troops, it's also logistics for the increased troops.

FWIW. You know, easy for us armchair generals to be tossing out our opinion ... but I can only imagine the real folks somewhere in Pentagon or elsewhere, looking at all their screens and real time updates on troop movement, logistics, air war etc. Wish I could be there listening in. And only about 1% old enough to remember to Cold War and Fulda Gap wargaming.

[molson]

Do we even know what Russia's military goal is? Is it just killing enough people and destroying enough infrastructure until Ukraine surrenders their sovereignty? Is it just taking over the government buildings in the capital?

[RainMaker]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Every city should make such a map to help find them… <a href="https://t.co/MLuY4mMR9m">pic.twitter.com/MLuY4mMR9m</a></p>&mdash; Jussi Pekka 🇺🇦 (@JuPe_EU) <a href="https://twitter.com/JuPe_EU/status/1498428148396007424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[JPhillips]

Do we even know what Russia's military goal is? Is it just killing enough people and destroying enough infrastructure until Ukraine surrenders their sovereignty? Is it just taking over the government buildings in the capital?

Multiple Russian media sources apparently published and then retracted what looked like a Kremlin piece praising Putin for annexing Ukraine and humiliating the West. If that's the goal, seems unlikely to get there now. Even if, as I think will happen, Russia is able to kill or remove the current government, how do they police Ukraine? It isn't like the population is going to drop all of their weapons and obey. And then how does Russia get reintegrated into the world economy?

[CrimsonFox]

https://scontent.fluk1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/274985660_10221083585868014_2652776714294569253_n.jpg?_nc_cat=102&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=rmT2ncHcr3EAX--cYOd&_nc_oc=AQkN_0VUqK6oM70NMB0ALX7Xztnyyv_Y9DIqVqsYkccm47r_O4zwd7dsVXgjmyRUk2Y&_nc_ht=scontent.fluk1-1.fna&oh=00_AT8dfwSUXMGtIsSQCzdSMiy9Zcfu4OzVH7zVl5R7ast3VQ&oe=6221D9D4

[CrimsonFox]

Do we even know what Russia's military goal is? Is it just killing enough people and destroying enough infrastructure until Ukraine surrenders their sovereignty? Is it just taking over the government buildings in the capital?

You could say the same thing abuot the republican insurgents on Jan 6

[CrimsonFox]

I often see russian players on steam especially in serious sam. I wonder how those guys are handling this

if steam blocked them there would be such a coup

[Atocep]

Multiple Russian media sources apparently published and then retracted what looked like a Kremlin piece praising Putin for annexing Ukraine and humiliating the West. If that's the goal, seems unlikely to get there now. Even if, as I think will happen, Russia is able to kill or remove the current government, how do they police Ukraine? It isn't like the population is going to drop all of their weapons and obey. And then how does Russia get reintegrated into the world economy?

They don't have the forces to occupy a population of 44 million people. Iraq has a smaller population and we weren't able to do it with international support and a far more competent military. The only thing I can figure is they hope that by getting a Lukashenko-like leader in place and forcing the pro-democracy people out of leadership positions throughout the government and military things people will fall in line.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think we know how an occupation would go. The way Ukraine is fighting now is highly encouraging of course, but there's a difference between that and continuing to fight if their conventional military is ultimately defeated.

easy for us armchair generals to be tossing out our opinion

Agreed, I don't think any of us really know. But I still think allied air power was and is needed to give Ukraine a realistic long-term chance of doing more than an eventual capitulation and insurgency, assuming Putin remains in power and in good enough health and doesn't back down, all of which seem likely.

[Solecismic]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-60492134

Xi is the puppet master here. This can't end unless Xi directs Putin to end it.

If Putin installs his own puppet in Ukraine, that works for Xi. But this seems to have always been about Russia/China wanting the US in a diminished role in the world - with NATO no longer worth anything and the US/EU more and more dependent on importing fuels.

The only way out of this is energy and materials independence. Whatever it takes. Biden and the EU leaders have to remove the restrictions they've added in recent years. Otherwise, China is just going to keep squeezing.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think that's at all realistic. Globalization, reliance on trade, etc. is a fact of life for everyone in the modern world. That includes even China. Any nation that cuts themselves off in an isolationist manner will not be able to compete economically. Of course the more of our own consumption we can produce the better, it's makes you less susceptible to problems when supply is cut off from outside for one reason or another, but trade is essential - both importing and exporting. Even if we were 100% self-sufficient in terms of what we needed, a grave price would be paid if foreign markets were eliminated for our goods.

[Solecismic]

I'm not talking about isolationism - that's not rational for the reasons you mention. I'm talking about dependence. China is using Russia to bring about major changes in the world. And not in a good way.

[GrantDawg]

@UAWeapons is a good follow on twitter if you are interested in Russian weaponry. They are showing equipment that have been destroyed or captured by the UA. There have been fully functional and fueled battle tanks that have been abandoned by Russian forces, along with a large number that are somewhat damaged or ran out of fuel. Looking through the threads I didn't know that Ukraine is offering $45k to any Russian soldier who is willing to defect. I have a feeling that might just be propaganda, but the suggestion is some Russian soldiers are buying it.

[MIJB#19]

@UAWeapons is a good follow on twitter if you are interested in Russian weaponry.A more general question: I need some help in convincing me why twitter all of a sudden is a place to go find objective information on this war. I mean, how does one decipher which are propaganda accounts and which are objective eyewitness stories? I mean, not so long ago even the supposedly account of the president of the USA was almost exclusively used for propaganda.

[GrantDawg]

A more general question: I need some help in convincing me why twitter all of a sudden is a place to go find objective information on this war. I mean, how does one decipher which are propaganda accounts and which are objective eyewitness stories? I mean, not so long ago even the supposedly account of the president of the USA was almost exclusively used for propaganda.
I think it is like all media. Assume it is propaganda, but weed out the verifiable.

[JPhillips]

This thread on the combined efforts of professionals and amateurs to jam and record Russian army communications is pretty remarkable.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Intelligence acquired since the beginning of the Russian military operation over Ukraine has shown an immense lack of logistic support, making this war one of the most unique in 2022 when it comes to surveillance. <br><br>A thread ���� <a href="https://t.co/huILD8lEDX">pic.twitter.com/huILD8lEDX</a></p>&mdash; ShadowBreak Intl. (@sbreakintl) <a href="https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619303717142529?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[albionmoonlight]

In the middle of all of this, the Fifth Circuit holds that federal judges, not military leaders, should make deployment decisions at the individual troop level:
https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/22/22-10077-CV0.pdf

[albionmoonlight]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">* RUSSIAN MOVE ON KYIV IS STALLED, OFFICIAL SAYS<br><br>* U.S. HAS INDICATIONS THAT SOME RUSSIAN UNITS HAVE SURRENDERED WITHOUT A FIGHT, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS<a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Reuters</a></p>&mdash; Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) <a href="https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1498690938989858819?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Brian Swartz]

I'm not talking about isolationism - that's not rational for the reasons you mention. I'm talking about dependence

The point I'm making is that you can't not be dependent on foreign markets unless you are isolationist.

[Edward64]

In the middle of all of this, the Fifth Circuit holds that federal judges, not military leaders, should make deployment decisions at the individual troop level:
https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/22/22-10077-CV0.pdf

Yeah, good luck with that (regardless of which party is in power).

[Edward64]

Currently reflecting on Civ 6 warmonger penalty. Firaxis will have to rethink the mechanics. Reality has trumped the game.



EDIT: wanted to check out the r/Russia sub to get their POV. Apparently its been taken down completely

In r/Sino. Same old anti-US rhetoric & hypocrisy, and also anti-NATO. Some posts about citizens trying to leave, some posts about smearing China etc.

In the r/China, more pro-western posts.

Interesting discussions going on in the r/India sub. Majority of commentators favor India's neutrality. Russia has supported India politically and militarily so in a way I get it. But lots of commentary on how Ukraine/Europe are racist and therefore, they shouldn't get India's support. I can see that if UK was getting invaded but don't think that should apply to Ukraine. Admittedly, India is in a difficult situation so being neutral is probably best position for them.

Not much happening in r/Cuba.

[Atocep]

Currently reflecting on Civ 6 warmonger penalty. Firaxis will have to rethink the mechanics. Reality has trumped the game.

And I was just thinking Putin probably wishes he had a previous save to load.

[albionmoonlight]

The point I'm making is that you can't not be dependent on foreign markets unless you are isolationist.

I have long believed in the argument that "We want to integrate possible bad actor/warmonger nations into the world economy. If their economy becomes dependent on international trade, then they will have too much to lose by going to war or otherwise stepping too far out of line."

This conflict is showing me the flipside of that approach. They become dependent on your trade. But you also become dependent on their trade.

Not sure where the right balance lies, but I'm certainly in a position to re-calibrate my thoughts.

[albionmoonlight]

Yeah, good luck with that (regardless of which party is in power).

The Executive Branch isn't going to defy a court order.

[sterlingice]

The Executive Branch isn't going to defy a court order.

Not this one and not for this, anyways

SI

[sterlingice]

Currently reflecting on Civ 6 warmonger penalty. Firaxis will have to rethink the mechanics. Reality has trumped the game.

Just like zombie or contagion movies have to be rethought after the last 2 years

SI

[Edward64]

Just like zombie or contagion movies have to be rethought after the last 2 years

I've watched some contagion like movies past couple years. The transmission seems realistic but the reaction is (as we know now) underwhelming. Limited mask wearing!

And I was just thinking Putin probably wishes he had a previous save to load.
Oh yeah. Similar to how I'm constantly reloading when playing Long War mod for WOTC

[albionmoonlight]

I've watched some contagion like movies past couple years. The transmission seems realistic but the reaction is (as we know now) underwhelming. Limited mask wearing!

The joke I saw was that the pandemic has made Sci-Fi harder to believe.

"IN THE YEAR 3050, ALIENS CAME TO OUR SOLAR SYSTEM WITH PLANS TO TURN OFF THE SUN!"

Me: Eh. Seems plausible.

"SO HUMANITY BANDED TOGETHER . . . "

Me: Oh my God. That is so unrealistic.

[molson]

You win Plague Inc. when the vaccine is discovered. Because it's just assumed that people will want the thing that saves their lives.

[Edward64]

This is fantastic.

Article points out countries that stayed to listen. I did not see China or India on that list but would have thought they stayed also.

Astonishing moment diplomats WALK OUT as Kremlin minister says Russia was forced to invade Ukraine | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10564393/Astonishing-moment-diplomats-WALK-Kremlin-minister-says-Russia-forced-invade-Ukraine.html)
World turns its back on Russia: Astonishing moment diplomats WALK OUT as Kremlin minister tells disarmament conference Russia was forced to invade Ukraine to 'stop them getting nuclear weapons'
Outside that chamber, diplomats also gathered in front of a Ukrainian flag and applauded loudly.

The applause could be heard in the chamber where Lavrov's speech continued, with only a handful of ambassadors from countries including Yemen, Syria, Venezuela and Tunisia there to hear it.
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/03/01/12/54799601-10564393-image-a-43_1646137673398.jpg

[QuikSand]

Слава Україні

[Edward64]

There were some posts here that Putin may have emboldened China on Taiwan.

I think based on how the war is going so far and the world reaction, this has reduced the odds that China will try to invade Taiwan militarily. If Taiwan declares independence then all bets are off.

[RainMaker]

In the middle of all of this, the Fifth Circuit holds that federal judges, not military leaders, should make deployment decisions at the individual troop level:
https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinions/pub/22/22-10077-CV0.pdf

5th Circuit sure is something. Especially in contrast to other rulings where they give the executive branch immense powers with the military. Almost like this one little exception was carved out for political purposes.

[Edward64]

A Reuters reporter on the ground in Ukraine. Not many answers to questions yet for his AMA but I'll be monitoring for his insights.

Reddit - Dive into anything (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/t4ebff/i_am_a_reuters_reporter_on_the_ground_in_ukraine/)

[Brian Swartz]

This conflict is showing me the flipside of that approach. They become dependent on your trade. But you also become dependent on their trade.

That's a fair point. To me it's not really a question of geopolitical strategy at all, but just one of inevitability. If no one country can produce everything it needs and purchase everything it produces - and IMO that's a truism - then at a certain level it just doesn't matter if global trade is a good idea or a bad idea, any more than one might question whether gravity is a good or bad thing. It just *is*.

[Solecismic]

That's a fair point. To me it's not really a question of geopolitical strategy at all, but just one of inevitability. If no one country can produce everything it needs and purchase everything it produces - and IMO that's a truism - then at a certain level it just doesn't matter if global trade is a good idea or a bad idea, any more than one might question whether gravity is a good or bad thing. It just *is*.

It's more that an energy grid is a basic requirement for participation in the world economy. If you outsource the key components, you give the countries that produce what you need a lot of power they wouldn't ordinarily have.

Russia has the 11th largest GDP in the world. Yet Putin, who is not a Democratic leader even though Russia has somewhat of a modern marketplace, is one of the most powerful people in the world because he sells Europe what's closing in on half of their energy needs. The EU can't exist in its current form without Russia's oil, gas and coal. You could say the same thing about food in the past, and that's still an issue in some places in the world.

Trade is one thing. Yes, it "is" and it ends up benefiting both sides to such an extent that isolationism is reckless and damaging. Dependence is something else. When you give an authoritarian control over your existence, there's a danger this can happen.

[sterlingice]

I kindof agree with both of you but I think it's not always that simple, either.

I was talking to a relative of mine in Italy about the war on Friday:
As for Italy, I must tell you that it is a wonderful country, full of wonderful, friendly, intelligent, creative and also very cultured and sensitive people. Unfortunately, our economic system is based on the processing industry. We do beautiful things. However, we do not have energy sources. We depend on abroad.

What do you tell a country like that?

Along with energy, food and water are major security issues, as well. Again, oversimplifying, but you only have so much land and you can use some of to farm or get water, some for energy generation, and some for industry to keep you politically relevant/powerful. The US can mostly get all of them and we can even we can play our hand where things like rare earth metals, good placement for military bases, high tech infrastructure, etc. can somewhat be treated like "security concerns". But most places don't have that luxury.

SI

[Edward64]

I get sending $ but also sending fighter jets? I'd think Ukraine would need more Stingers & Javelins (and spec ops to help out). Hard to believe they could maintain fighter jets for any length of time. But Ukraine asked for them.

Individual EU countries have already been helping with weaponry but fighter jets seem to be on the next level.

"This is a watershed moment": EU to purchase and deliver weapons to Ukraine in historic first (https://www.axios.com/eu-weapons-ukraine-russia-invasion-331bfcbc-5193-47b0-8afb-03f194d95619.html)

Looks like the fighter jets deal fell through.

European plan to donate fighter jets to Ukraine collapses - POLITICO (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/28/ukrainian-pilots-arrive-in-poland-to-pick-up-donated-fighter-jets-00012560)
the announcement Sunday by EU security chief Josep Borrell that fighter jets were also on their way appeared to be a game-changer for European military assistance. Borrell was forced to walk his pronouncement back somewhat by Monday, acknowledging that any transfers wouldn’t come from the EU itself, but would instead be donated “bilaterally” by individual EU countries.

Soon after, a Ukrainian government official told POLITICO their country had sent pilots to Poland to pick up the jets and the Ukrainian parliament announced that the planes from Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland would soon be on their way. But by Tuesday, Bulgaria and Slovakia said there was no deal to send fighters, and the Polish president, appearing at a Polish air base alongside NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, said no planes would be flying any time soon.

“We are supporting Ukrainians with humanitarian aid. However, we are not going to send any jets to Ukrainian airspace,” President Andrzej Duda said.

[cuervo72]

Future Italy be burning a lot of olive oil.

[sterlingice]

Dammit. That was going to be a big deal.

And from what I saw, the US was like "here's some F-16s" to the EU countries get upgrades, Ukraine gets the planes they need, and everyone's happy.

SI

[Solecismic]

I kindof agree with both of you but I think it's not always that simple, either.

I was talking to a relative of mine in Italy about the war on Friday:


What do you tell a country like that?

Along with energy, food and water are major security issues, as well. Again, oversimplifying, but you only have so much land and you can use some of to farm or get water, some for energy generation, and some for industry to keep you politically relevant/powerful. The US can mostly get all of them and we can even we can play our hand where things like rare earth metals, good placement for military bases, high tech infrastructure, etc. can somewhat be treated like "security concerns". But most places don't have that luxury.

SI

You tell Italy the same thing Italy tells San Marino. You are part of a Democratic union. Just like the concept of the United States, or the European Union. Democracy makes this work. When you serve at the will of your people, you have incentive to come together.

In the last couple of days, Olaf Sholz announced the construction of terminals at a couple of ports to handle LNG, presumably from the US. Hopefully, we are ramping up production so that we can play that role. Same with Canada.

I think it's easy to get distracted by Trumpisms like "America First" and mistake that for a show of strength or a declaration of hostility. The world is a very complex place, and politicians exist to try and fuck that up.

[Solecismic]

Dammit. That was going to be a big deal.

And from what I saw, the US was like "here's some F-16s" to the EU countries get upgrades, Ukraine gets the planes they need, and everyone's happy.

SI

How would that work, though? How would they even get to Ukraine? Zelensky has asked NATO for a "No-Fly-Zone" enforcement over Ukraine. That would start WWIII the second anyone engaged because presumably Russia is monitoring and ready to enforce its own No-Fly-Zone over Ukraine.

They took out the entire Ukraine air force. Let's say you could sneak planes in or have Ukrainian pilots sneak out of the country and "borrow" them. Then what? They engage for ten minutes and are destroyed.

Unfortunately, Russia has complete air and sea control right now. Challenging that means direct NATO engagement, no way around it. Even getting the essential anti-tank weapons in there would be a miracle at this point. Russia is setting up siege-like offenses. Maybe they don't work because their own supply lines aren't good or they are underestimating the Ukrainians. But that's what they're doing and if the threat of isolation is failing (hard to even try because everyone depends on Nordstream I) because of China, I don't know how this ends up. If Putin can stomach what he's asked his forces to do to Kharkiv in the last couple of days, we're just not dealing with a rational human being - unfortunately one with far too much control.

[JPhillips]

Dammit. That was going to be a big deal.

And from what I saw, the US was like "here's some F-16s" to the EU countries get upgrades, Ukraine gets the planes they need, and everyone's happy.

SI

This could also b a cover story for Ukraine getting the planes. Who knows? Everybody involved has an interest in doing more while appearing to do less.

[sterlingice]

How would that work, though? How would they even get to Ukraine? Zelensky has asked NATO for a "No-Fly-Zone" enforcement over Ukraine. That would start WWIII the second anyone engaged because presumably Russia is monitoring and ready to enforce its own No-Fly-Zone over Ukraine.

They took out the entire Ukraine air force. Let's say you could sneak planes in or have Ukrainian pilots sneak out of the country and "borrow" them. Then what? They engage for ten minutes and are destroyed.

Unfortunately, Russia has complete air and sea control right now. Challenging that means direct NATO engagement, no way around it. Even getting the essential anti-tank weapons in there would be a miracle at this point. Russia is setting up siege-like offenses. Maybe they don't work because their own supply lines aren't good or they are underestimating the Ukrainians. But that's what they're doing and if the threat of isolation is failing (hard to even try because everyone depends on Nordstream I) because of China, I don't know how this ends up. If Putin can stomach what he's asked his forces to do to Kharkiv in the last couple of days, we're just not dealing with a rational human being - unfortunately one with far too much control.

The Russians don't have a lot of control in the west and if those were coming across the border from Moldova or Romania or Poland, it would be doable, I think. The link Edward posted said Ukraine got pilots out to Poland to try and pick up planes and that's when they found out there were no planes.

SI

[bhlloy]

I also had the question about how all these weapons make it to the frontline and if they are all just being destroyed once they make it 20 miles into Ukraine.

[Brian Swartz]

You tell Italy the same thing Italy tells San Marino. You are part of a Democratic union. Just like the concept of the United States, or the European Union. Democracy makes this work. When you serve at the will of your people, you have incentive to come together.

Democracy helps, doing what you can with your own natural resources help, but it does not at all solve this or make it work, for a couple reasons. What happens when different democratic nations decide they have different interests from each other? Italy and other countries may be benevolent to San Marino, but they still absolutely have the economic power to tell San Marino to go pound sand if they wish. Same with Italy/Germany, UK/US, whatever.

Even more fundamentally though, this only works if there are enough democracies to control world resources. There are not. Take aluminum for example. China produces almost 10x as much as the second-largest producer. In terms of global reserves, neither the US or anyone in Europe outside of Russia is in the Top 10. Australia is, so they can help quite a bit, but they produce less than a 20th of what China does. There are many resources this is true for.

The point is, unless democratic countries completely dominate the globe to the point where authoritarian ones are non-factors (which would make this entire conversation academic), there are key resources that any modern society relies upon that they can't make themselves in sufficient quantities because there simply aren't physically enough of those resources in those countries to meet the demand. It's admittedly simplistic, binary, and misleading to divide the world into free/authoritarian segments, but even under that view each relies on the other - neither is or can be self-sufficient. They can get closer than they are, but the mutual dependence is just a fact of life.

This is one part of why we're going to continue to have issues until we realize the necessity, as a species, of a global government.

[Solecismic]

Democracy helps, doing what you can with your own natural resources help, but it does not at all solve this or make it work, for a couple reasons. What happens when different democratic nations decide they have different interests from each other? Italy and other countries may be benevolent to San Marino, but they still absolutely have the economic power to tell San Marino to go pound sand if they wish. Same with Italy/Germany, UK/US, whatever.

Even more fundamentally though, this only works if there are enough democracies to control world resources. There are not. Take aluminum for example. China produces almost 10x as much as the second-largest producer. In terms of global reserves, neither the US or anyone in Europe outside of Russia is in the Top 10. Australia is, so they can help quite a bit, but they produce less than a 20th of what China does. There are many resources this is true for.

The point is, unless democratic countries completely dominate the globe to the point where authoritarian ones are non-factors (which would make this entire conversation academic), there are key resources that any modern society relies upon that they can't make themselves in sufficient quantities because there simply aren't physically enough of those resources in those countries to meet the demand. It's admittedly simplistic, binary, and misleading to divide the world into free/authoritarian segments, but even under that view each relies on the other - neither is or can be self-sufficient. They can get closer than they are, but the mutual dependence is just a fact of life.

This is one part of why we're going to continue to have issues until we realize the necessity, as a species, of a global government.

I don't know. I still don't buy how the Federation somehow survived the onslaught of the Borg.

How would this necessity work? Who decides who is in power and, more importantly, who keeps the Putins and the Kings George from abusing that power?

What do we do about the people who feel oppressed under such a government? When Yugoslavia fell, it broke into so many pieces and factions we may still be counting them 100 years from now. Europe, with its 44 countries, and counting, at least is figuring out that there needs to be some sort of union. But any further than that and the problems become severe.

As for resources - the idea is that you do your part. If you have something to trade, you're in the game or you're reliant on someone who is in the game. We've created this China monster - 1.5 billion people who live under communist control - because we insist that they use those people as slaves to mine what we're no longer willing to mine and sew together what we're no longer willing to sew together and burn the fuels that we're no longer willing to burn.

I don't know how it all works, but there's a shift coming and China's version of a world government is not one I think we can share.

[RainMaker]

Another one bounces.

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Exxon withdraws from Russia. “We are beginning the process to discontinue operations and developing steps to exit the Sakhalin-1 venture,” it says (unclear what “discontinue” means, but Exxon operates the LNG facility, so it’s a big deal) <a href="https://t.co/BeeL2Sxphc">https://t.co/BeeL2Sxphc</a></p>&mdash; Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) <a href="https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1498813943749672962?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 2, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[GrantDawg]

My understanding is that Russia doesn't have complete air superiority. Ukraine still has many air defenses operating, and have been very successfully using drones to take out Russian units. I don't know if they could keep planes flying for long, though. Are there still operable airports in the west?

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[GrantDawg]

There is a claim right now that a 600 vehicle convoy was taken out by Ukrainian air along with ground troops. That number seems crazy big. I will need to see some real proof on that.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

There is a claim right now that a 600 vehicle convoy was taken out by Ukrainian air along with ground troops. That number seems crazy big. I will need to see some real proof on that.

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

I saw that. But even if true, its not that "big" one going south towards Kyiv.

[Edward64]

Apparently we are still importing a lot of oil from Russia.

Ukraine: Joe Manchin slams 'hypocritical' White House for buying 500k Russian oil barrels a day | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10565995/Joe-Manchin-tears-hypocritical-White-House-buying-500-000-Russian-oil-barrels-day.html)
Manchin, a Democrat who chairs the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said it was hypocritical to ask other countries to do 'what we can do for ourselves' – and demanded the administration halt the imports, which he noted exceed 500,000 barrels a day of oil and other petroleum products.
Biden admin response is weak. The US government can certainly (or highly encourage) where US market sells or acquires oil & gas. WTF do you think sanctions do?

Yes, gas prices will go up. Yes, it'll be a negative to mid-terms. But it is the right thing to do. Go find more oil & gas somewhere else.

'As it relates to Russian gas, the U.S. government doesn't dictate where the U.S. market sells our own oil and gas products nor where it acquires crude or refined products from for domestic consumption. This is all up to the private sector, other than exceptions like countries under sanctions, she said.

'So, the U.S. refiners currently importing Russian products are largely legacy refinery operations tooled in Hawaii and Alaska for certain supplies because of geography; and imports to the Gulf, both of certain refined products and of crude, as refiners in the Gulf mix crude supplies to meet the needs of their particular refinery designs,' she added. She said the U.S. applauds private companies who made their own announcements, and wouldn't rule out further action.

[PilotMan]

"A lot" is probably not the right term to keep numbers in perspective.

The U.S. imported around 7.86 million barrels of petroleum products, including crude oil, per day in 2020 from about 80 countries. Around 5.88 million barrels, or 75% of imported petroleum products, was crude oil, the EIA reported.

Complete statistics for 2021 were not available from the EIA.

Canada accounted for 52% of the imported petroleum, with 4.13 billion barrels per day coming into the U.S. from the north in 2020. Of that amount, 3.59 million was crude oil.

Russia on the other hand, accounted for only 7% of the petroleum brought into the U.S. for 2020, with only 540,000 barrels per day. Of that amount, 76,000 barrels were of crude oil, according to the EIA.

Historical importation data from the EIA also shows the amount of petroleum and oil the U.S. receives from Russia fluctuates and has not been a steady source like Canada.

[Edward64]

"A lot" is probably not the right term to keep numbers in perspective.

Sure is a lot vs zero.

[PilotMan]

Sure is a lot vs zero.

Oooh snap! You got me boss.

[Brian Swartz]

Agreed with both of you. We should stop buying it. No, it isn't a lot by the relevant comparison (how much we buy overall).

[Edward64]

Oooh snap! You got me boss.

Zing. Owiee. You got me back "bro"

[Edward64]

Biden’s “go get em” has cause some confusion for the non-US redditors in the r/world news. Some thinking specifically targeting Putin.

Thankfully some US redditors put that to rest.

A little comic relief in a tense situation.

[RainMaker]

Apparently we are still importing a lot of oil from Russia.

Ukraine: Joe Manchin slams 'hypocritical' White House for buying 500k Russian oil barrels a day | Daily Mail Online (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10565995/Joe-Manchin-tears-hypocritical-White-House-buying-500-000-Russian-oil-barrels-day.html)

Biden admin response is weak. The US government can certainly (or highly encourage) where US market sells or acquires oil & gas. WTF do you think sanctions do?

Yes, gas prices will go up. Yes, it'll be a negative to mid-terms. But it is the right thing to do. Go find more oil & gas somewhere else.

Manchin is the hypocrite here. He screamed about inflation and is now advocating for a policy that would spike inflation. He wants energy independence but voted no on a bill that would have pushed us toward it.

Also worth noting that the United States exports more oil than it imports from Russia. And that Manchin's buddies in Saudi Arabia cut production to drive up prices.

All Manchin wants is higher domestic energy costs because he is heavily invested in the industry and receives most of his political donations from the industry. He does not give one zero fuck about Russia or Ukraine (and I doubt he could point out either on a map).

[RainMaker]

In other Manchin news, here's the company his crook daughter ran.

EpiPen antitrust litigation settled; Viatris to pay $264 million | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/viatris-settle-epipen-antitrust-litigation-264-million-2022-02-28/)

[CrimsonFox]

There were some posts here that Putin may have emboldened China on Taiwan.

I think based on how the war is going so far and the world reaction, this has reduced the odds that China will try to invade Taiwan militarily. If Taiwan declares independence then all bets are off.

I have been totally wondering if the Ukraine/Russia thing is anything like the China/Taiwan thing.

[GrantDawg]

To answer my own question earlier, yes Ukraine still have active airports and active planes still flying. This article talks about how baffling it is that the Russian have not gain air superiority yet, and they don't seem to be willing to invest the equipment to do so. That just seems strange. Are the Russian's holding back aircraft in fear of a NATO attack? What other reason would there be for Russia committing such a small amount of their air force to the conflict?


What happened to Russia&#x27;s Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped | Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-happened-russias-air-force-us-officials-experts-stumped-2022-03-01/)

[GrantDawg]

It looks as if the Ukrainians are doing a counter-offensive to slow down or push back the Russian advance. Reports are they have taken parts of Horlivka that has been under Russian control for 8 years.

[flere-imsaho]

Sure is a lot vs zero.

Context matters.

[Kodos]

Anyone else want to see the Ukraine start invading Russia?

(Not being serious…)

[sterlingice]

Anyone else want to see the Ukraine start invading Russia?

(Not being serious…)

No, but it would be interesting (though unrealistic) if they somehow were able to fend off the attack and also take back Crimea

SI

[NobodyHere]

It would be some kind of poetic justice if Ukraine took back Crimea

[PilotMan]

Couple videos in case anyone is struggling to understand the larger Russian strategy. The second video is from 6 years ago and is 100% accurate still.

Would Putin have invaded with trump in office? Probably not. The trump policies were pushing the Russian position on the world, devaluing NATO and working to put Ukraine in a vice via tit for tat world comments and political commentary. Why attack when the President of the United States will help you do it? The Lavrov who is saying WW3 will be nuclear is the same Lavrov that trump gave classified information to that had been withheld from allies (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-revealed-highly-classified-information-to-russian-foreign-minister-and-ambassador/2017/05/15/530c172a-3960-11e7-9e48-c4f199710b69_story.html). He was basically working as a Russian agent in terms of furthering Russian policy. So no, they wouldn't have needed to attack.

In addition:
1. Said it was Ukraine who interfered in the 2016 election
2. Kicked out the US Ambassador to the Ukraine and smeared her.
3. Froze military assets
4. Denied a WH meeting with Zelensky
5. Turned over all policy to Guiliani, and made him the point person for all things Ukraine. Not Sec State.

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/01/vindman-zelensky-ukraine-putin/)

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zwzliJF0-SI" title="YouTube video player" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe>

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_uTetKws8do" title="YouTube video player" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe>

[Edward64]

FWIW, Euronews interviewed 4 Russians.

Essentially 1-2-1 with the 2 in the middle leaning pro-War. Interesting perspectives from common people.

What do Russians think of Putin's invasion of Ukraine? | Euronews (https://www.euronews.com/2022/03/02/what-do-russians-think-of-putin-s-invasion-of-ukraine)

[GrantDawg]

The Russians heavily shelled Kharkiv along with a paratrooper assault. There is a school in Kharkiv that has a larger Indian student population, and they are now trapped in an underground shelter. Putin is claiming the students are hostages being used as human shields, and the Russians are simply trying free them. Lots of Indians are pretty upset and blaming the Ukrainians for the situation. If those silly Ukrainians would just stop bombing themselves.

[Atocep]

Couple videos in case anyone is struggling to understand the larger Russian strategy. The second video is from 6 years ago and is 100% accurate still.

Would Putin have invaded with trump in office? Probably not. The trump policies were pushing the Russian position on the world, devaluing NATO and working to put Ukraine in a vice via tit for tat world comments and political commentary. Why attack when the President of the United States will help you do it? The Lavrov who is saying WW3 will be nuclear is the same Lavrov that trump gave classified information to that had been withheld from allies (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-revealed-highly-classified-information-to-russian-foreign-minister-and-ambassador/2017/05/15/530c172a-3960-11e7-9e48-c4f199710b69_story.html). He was basically working as a Russian agent in terms of furthering Russian policy. So no, they wouldn't have needed to attack.

In addition:
1. Said it was Ukraine who interfered in the 2016 election
2. Kicked out the US Ambassador to the Ukraine and smeared her.
3. Froze military assets
4. Denied a WH meeting with Zelensky
5. Turned over all policy to Guiliani, and made him the point person for all things Ukraine. Not Sec State.

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/01/vindman-zelensky-ukraine-putin/)

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zwzliJF0-SI" title="YouTube video player" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe>

<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_uTetKws8do" title="YouTube video player" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe>


I have wondered if this would have played out more in Putin's favor if he had started this while Trump was in office. It's clear why he didn't, but I don't think there's any chance the US uses it's intel as effectively and I seriously doubt Trump would have been willing to work with NATO.

On a side note, Newsmax had Bolton on as they were trying to squash the narrative that Trump wasn't tough enough on Russia. I thought Bolton played the interview pretty well. He didn't push back too hard on what they were wanting to strongly push other than point out a lot of what they were listing off as things Trump did to hurt Russia were actually Congressional decisions. Instead he pointed out that Trump had no understanding of history and therefore went into these situations ignorant and blind. He also said every decision Trump made was based on how it would benefit him personally and listed off the issues surrounding the first impeachment and withholding of aid. It seemed to catch the interviewer off guard and he wasn't prepared to defend Trump in that manner and largely ended up looking like he agreed or deferred to Bolton on those points. Yes Bolton is a piece of shit, ect but it was interesting to see how he handled that interview.