Invasion of Ukraine

[GrantDawg]

No. And even with the ease of which they were able to take a couple of territories, I don't believe Wagner will win here. I think the best case scenario would be what has been long hoped for, a group close to Putin gets fed up and takes him out. They pull out of Ukraine, and things stabilize. That might be a pipe dream, but that would be the best outcome.

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[Edward64]

No, we don't want Wagner with nukes.

My guess, the least bad options is Putin retaining power after a difficult battle with Prigozhin/Wagner. He then has to spend some time purging who he needs to purge, and reestablishing firm control on any suspect politicians/troops.

[GrantDawg]

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ukrainian soldiers at the front follow the coup attempt in Russia by eating popcorn.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Wagner?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Wagner</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Russia?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Russia</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Moscow?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Moscow</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Prigozhin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Prigozhin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Titanic?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Titanic</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Putin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Putin</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Titan?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Titan</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WagnerGroup?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WagnerGroup</a> <a href="https://t.co/fMeY38w5zD">pic.twitter.com/fMeY38w5zD</a></p>&mdash; Isha Rastogi (@IshaRas40433124) <a href="https://twitter.com/IshaRas40433124/status/1672562511198187522?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 24, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[CrimsonFox]

:popcorn:

[GrantDawg]

Prigozhin is basically live streaming from Rostov. He says they have found evidence of the misinformation given out by the MOD of the extent of their losses. He said they have been losing soldier at alarming rate, up to 1,000 a day. Much of that has been reported in the West, but this might be the first the Russian people have been exposed to it.

[JPhillips]

Hard to tell what's going on right now, but there are reports that Kadyrov is taking Chechans to Rostov to fight Wagner.

[GrantDawg]

So far just from the way it looks, the government is trying to stall Wargner without giving any major fight. It looks like they are trying to prevent large scale fighting in civilian areas. I don't think that will last for long, but they must be hoping they can get this quelled as bloodlessly as possible. I do buy that they probably are preparing to move Kadyrov's forces in to take this rebellion out if needed. Kadyrov works with the same kind of ruthlessness that Wagner has.

[JPhillips]

If Putin falls there are a whole lot of American political influencers that are going to miss their paychecks.

[Edward64]

If some Redditors are right, headed towards Moscow now.

Supposedly 2-4 hours away.

[GrantDawg]

They have dug trenches on the highways into Moscow, and have disconnected bridges heading into the city.

[JPhillips]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cyclist passes Russian troops in Rostov while blasting &quot;Because I got high&quot;. <br><br>That's it, that's the tweet. <a href="https://t.co/CsD4j0HtRx">pic.twitter.com/CsD4j0HtRx</a></p>&mdash; Michael A. Horowitz (@michaelh992) <a href="https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1672497439868084224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 24, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[GrantDawg]

<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I have over 400 hours of experience playing Civilization V. Vladimir Putin should have known that when his national happiness fell below -20 he would start spawning random insurgents. Here’s what he should do next: ��(1/?)</p>&mdash; Ari Drennen (@AriDrennen) <a href="https://twitter.com/AriDrennen/status/1672615526823260160?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 24, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[bronconick]

Only 400 hours? Amateur. That's like 2 or 3 games.

[GrantDawg]

Reports of gun fire in Rostov.

[Solecismic]

It seems like Prigozhin is playing his hand, and it's not the hand he thought he held. So, knowing that he will be executed for treason if he fails, he's going to keeping playing it.

The next couple of weeks will determine a lot, but it's hard to see this changing the overall situation all that much. Russia is trying to activate as much military as possible and their dependence on Wagner is reduced.

It's interesting that much of Wagner remains in Ukraine right now. And Prigozhin has indicated he still supports the war - this suggests that he thought Putin would react very differently to his actions this week.

This isn't bad news for Ukraine by any means. But signs seem clear that Putin's political control remains strong and this isn't headed toward a coup attempt.

The best thing NATO can do is to keep supplying Ukraine and hope they can resist, long-term. The harder this is for Russia, the less likely this spreads to NATO countries.

[GrantDawg]

Prigozhin is announcing they are turning back from Moscow. Some kind of agreement has been reached, though no details on what.

[GrantDawg]

It may be at best a cease fire, and intends to hold Rostov till greater concession are met. Or maybe he just realized an attack on Moscow was a suicide run.

[Thomkal]

So MAGA has turned to Biden and the West organized what's happening in Russia right now because we got too close to uncovering the Biden Crime Family.

[SirFozzie]

I'm shocked that both sides have apparently blinked. one of the things that have been rumored is that Prigohzin is apparently demanding major changes in Russian Army leadership.

If putting Prigozhin basically in charge of the army is the end result of this.. well, does anyone see any way this ends well?

[Edward64]

It was fun while it lasted

[JPhillips]

There just weren't that many soldiers in Rostov. Seems very unlikely he could have taken Moscow if it required fighting and the army seemed to stay neutral. If I were him I'd be looking at countries with nice weather and no relations with Russia.

Unless this was all a setup to get rid of the military leadership, but that seems very unlikely, IMO.

[GrantDawg]

We will see over time, but he had to have gotten some concessions. I don't see how he could possibly trust anything they agreed to. He is a marked man.

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[GrantDawg]

Unconfirmed reports head of the Defense Mins try has been arrested.

[Edward64]

And Ukraine is continuing their offensive in multiple fronts.

Somehow, I just don't think Prigohzin and/or Putin are long for this world. Someone is going to break the "truce" within the year.

[Solecismic]

Hand played and folded. We'll have to wait and see whether Prigozhin is valuable enough to remain in control of anything, but it seems that soldiers who followed him will have the opportunity to join the Russian army. Prigozhin himself is being sent to Belarus. Perhaps he'll have an opportunity to cook for Lukashenko.

[RainMaker]

We will see over time, but he had to have gotten some concessions. I don't see how he could possibly trust anything they agreed to. He is a marked man.

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They apparently killed 10-20 Russian soldiers and will face no legal consequences. So I'd say that's a concession all in itself.


It's impossible to know what is going on behind the scenes but this has to make Putin look incredibly weak.

[GrantDawg]

Hand played and folded. We'll have to wait and see whether Prigozhin is valuable enough to remain in control of anything, but it seems that soldiers who followed him will have the opportunity to join the Russian army. Prigozhin himself is being sent to Belarus. Perhaps he'll have an opportunity to cook for Lukashenko.
It must of been that he really believed the army would rally behind him. When they didn't, he knew he couldn't go forward.

[GrantDawg]

They apparently killed 10-20 Russian soldiers and will face no legal consequences. So I'd say that's a concession all in itself.


It's impossible to know what is going on behind the scenes but this has to make Putin look incredibly weak.
I have actually seen this argued both ways. He looked weak that this happened, or it reveals his strength that it failed.

[RainMaker]

I have actually seen this argued both ways. He looked weak that this happened, or it reveals his strength that it failed.

Tough to say. The fact he took over a city and stormed toward Moscow is impressive in itself. Putin was clearly panicking. And them publicly stating the charges have been dropped shows a lot of weakness from Putin.

Kasparov is a bit of a crank but he's an interesting follow on Twitter. He always points out that you can't view Russia like you would America or other countries. It's more like the mafia, public power is not the desired outcome. If Prigozhin got enough money, he'll be happy.

[JonInMiddleGA]

And Ukraine is continuing their offensive in multiple fronts.

Somehow, I just don't think Prigohzin and/or Putin are long for this world. Someone is going to break the "truce" within the year.

One of them (as I understand it) spends a good bit of time much closer to the front that the other.

Gosh, it'd be a tragedy is a stray round just happened to find its way into that one. I'm sure the other would be just devastated if such a thing happened.

[bhlloy]

The one reason they might not bump him off within weeks is because Russia is absolutely dependent on 25k mercenaries plus more deployed around the world, most of whom are absolutely loyal and probably won’t take kindly if he has a nasty accident.

But yeah, long term once they are either stably part of the regular military or out of the picture, I imagine he’s odds on to have a nasty accident falling out of a window or an unfortunate brush with something highly deadly. That does seem to happen surprisingly often to prominent foes of Putin.

[Edward64]

Supposedly a pic of him on the way to exile.

And according to reddit, Putin hasn't been seen since his address to nation. You'd think there would a post victory televised appearance. But wouldn't mind some internal power struggles right now.

https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/107262183-1687652187639-gettyimages-1259027097-AA_25062023_1248676.jpeg?v=1687652541&w=740&h=416&ffmt=webp&vtcrop=y

[Edward64]

A blurb from Politico that I found interesting.

Not sure what the "gains" are they hope to achieve (e.g. Crimea) but I'm glad Ukraine is acknowledging there is "reality" and then there is "really reality".

Unless Ukraine can really dislodge Russia from the new territories & Crimea, better to accept 3/4 (or 4/5) or the original Ukraine, EU/NATO security guarantees including boots on the ground, start the nation rebuilding, and look towards the future.

Playbook: Inside Biden&rsquo;s Plan B on student debt - POLITICO (https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2023/07/01/inside-bidens-plan-b-on-student-debt-00104516)
BURNS AFTER READING: CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS secretly traveled to Ukraine last month to hear Kyiv’s plans for ending the war, which entail making significant territorial gains by the fall and then starting cease-fire talks with Russia by the end of the year, WaPo’s John Hudson and Shane Harris scooped. Burns’ goal was also to reiterate the U.S. commitment to sharing intelligence with Ukraine.

[Solecismic]

This cluster bomb issue has me concerned. The entire war/invasion is being played by rules that feel rather uncomfortable.

Russia has nukes, but there seems to be an acknowledgment on both sides that any use of nuclear weapons is off-limits. So where is the line, then? At first, Russia was using fairly advanced bombs that seem on a par with cluster bombs. But then stopped using them. No one talks about this.

It's apparently OK for Russia to bomb civilian areas in Ukraine, especially cities that are not under siege, because destroying infrastructure is cool, I guess. But Ukraine cannot do the same. It seems to be a condition of providing weaponry.

The rules seem designed to evoke a stand-off of sorts. Russia can't take Kyiv without their advanced weaponry. Ukraine can't break the Russia lines and reclaim territory without receiving more advanced weaponry.

I've felt from the beginning that China is running this show. Setting the parameters, guiding Putin like a puppet in that they understand his crazy dreams about re-establishing the Russian Empire, and Xi uses that to keep him confident all this is a good idea. It's a dangerous game, because if this goes nuclear NATO probably can't stay out. Xi understands that a full-fledged world war hurts everyone.

What's the end-game, then? Xi is the only one who benefits every day the standoff continues. But if Ukraine surrenders, the standoff simply moves to the Baltics.

[Flasch186]

Xi is winning


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[Edward64]

This cluster bomb issue has me concerned. The entire war/invasion is being played by rules that feel rather uncomfortable.
The "rules" are changed/adapted to as the war progresses. I don't disagree with the west's strategy of "trickling" out armaments to Ukraine. The west is doing a tit-for-tat and/or also as needed escalation.

Russia has nukes, but there seems to be an acknowledgment on both sides that any use of nuclear weapons is off-limits. So where is the line, then? At first, Russia was using fairly advanced bombs that seem on a par with cluster bombs. But then stopped using them. No one talks about this.
The ultimate line for the US (I hope) is boots-on-the-ground in Ukraine, contested areas; and US weapons attacking inside Russia proper.

It's apparently OK for Russia to bomb civilian areas in Ukraine, especially cities that are not under siege, because destroying infrastructure is cool, I guess. But Ukraine cannot do the same. It seems to be a condition of providing weaponry.

The rules seem designed to evoke a stand-off of sorts. Russia can't take Kyiv without their advanced weaponry. Ukraine can't break the Russia lines and reclaim territory without receiving more advanced weaponry.
I'm pretty sure the US is okay with Ukraine "breaking" Russia lines that are in Ukraine and contested areas (Crimea may be a special situation). The restriction is inside Russia proper.

I've felt from the beginning that China is running this show. Setting the parameters, guiding Putin like a puppet in that they understand his crazy dreams about re-establishing the Russian Empire, and Xi uses that to keep him confident all this is a good idea. It's a dangerous game, because if this goes nuclear NATO probably can't stay out. Xi understands that a full-fledged world war hurts everyone.
I honestly don't believe that China is running the show. Has some hooks, has some influence, providing some plausible deniability weapons ... sure. But not running (aka forcing Putin) what to do like a puppet master.

What's the end-game, then? Xi is the only one who benefits every day the standoff continues. But if Ukraine surrenders, the standoff simply moves to the Baltics.
Best case end-game is Putin is removed in a bloodless coup and his replacement takes the opportunity to pull back except for Crimea. EU helps Ukraine rebuild, eventually gets into NATO, and the mini Cold War 2 continues.

My guess ... there'll be a point in time when Ukraine will either have pushed Russia out of all contested territories (looking unlikely) or have pushed them out of enough contested territory (more likely), there will be peace talks and an uneasy truce. Ukrainians that want to leave the occupied territories will leave. UN will monitor the borders in the short term. Russia will have gained some territory in Ukraine but at a great cost, setting back their ambitions for quite a while, probably never to recover.

Ultimately, Ukraine will join NATO or have NATO security guarantees with boots-on-the-ground where it'll be another one of those uneasy early Israel-Sinai-Egypt situations. NATO will have emerged more united (for a while at least), the European countries will increase their military capabilities etc. And the US will pivot their attention to APAC for the Pacific version Cold War 2.

[Edward64]

Assuming this was a targeted assassination, made me wonder the "morality" of this. I can see a Putin or one of the top generals being assassinated. A submarine commander doesn't quite seem to be at the same level.

Sure he followed orders and launched the missiles, but then how about the jet pilots, company commanders etc. If Ukraine did do this, I'd lean towards condemnation (but that won't happen).

Stanislav Rzhitsky: Russian submarine commander killed in Krasnador | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/11/europe/russian-submarine-commander-killed-krasnador-intl/index.html)
A Russian submarine commander was shot to death in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar on Monday, the apparent details of which were revealed by Ukrainian intelligence that stopped short of claiming responsibility for the shooting.

Stanislav Rzhitsky was killed earlier this week by an “unknown person,” Russian state news agency TASS reported, adding that “the motive for the crime is being investigated.”

Suspects for Rzhitsky’s death have been identified, according to TASS.

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence disclosed how Rzhitsky was apparently shot, in an unusually detailed statement on Telegram. The agency did not explicitly take responsibility for the commander’s death.

“The submariner was jogging in the ’30th Anniversary of Victory’ park in Krasnodar. Around 6 a.m., he was shot seven times with a Makarov pistol. As a result of the gunshot wounds, Rzhitsky died on the spot,” the statement said.

[NobodyHere]

What's wrong with killing jet pilots or company commanders in a war? Do you think they have some level of immunity?

[CrimsonFox]

What's wrong with killing jet pilots or company commanders in a war? Do you think they have some level of immunity?

hell journalists don't even have that anymore

[Edward64]

What's wrong with killing jet pilots or company commanders in a war? Do you think they have some level of immunity?

I make a distinction between killing and assassination in this context. Killing in combat or in the front lines, no problem. Assassination when one is back home is different.

Apply that to US troops. Would you say it's justified to assassinate jet pilots, company commanders (who killed in combat actions) after they've returned to the US?

[dubb93]

I just don’t understand some takes on this war. Russia is bombing and killing civilian targets in Ukraine nightly, but if they literally do anything in return besides slam head first into Russia’s dug in trenches people freak out.

This is a war. I would say this is a traditional war, but really it isn’t. Russia isn’t fighting a legal war within the confines of the Geneva Conventions.

How exactly is Ukraine supposed to defend themselves? Allow Russia to launch 50 missiles a night without being able to target the guy pushing those buttons? I really don’t get the reactions by some.

[Flasch186]

This

And yes

In a war you can kill the enemy anywhere that they are

Especially if they&rsquo;re on your soil even that which may be contested


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[Solecismic]

People have different expectations of conduct based on who is involved. These unwritten rules are often contradictory and based on prejudices and political biases.

There's no making sense of it. I usually feel more inclined to defend the behavior of the group or individual being attacked, but what's the line between self-defense and revenge and what's the difference between revenge and deterrence? Individual examples can easily get bogged down in biases.

In this case, apparently there's a web site in Ukraine with a list of Russians they have identified as leading or perpetuating attacks on civilians. This was obviously a targeted assassination based on that list. I don't know if this person was correctly identified.

[GrantDawg]

If you are in the "Two wrongs make a right" business, then Ukraine targeting potential assignations is no worse than Russia's many war crimes. But if you are trying to hold some type of moral authority, then the old saying "wrestle with a pig and you both end up muddy" comes to mind.

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[Edward64]

I don't know if this person was correctly identified.

Yeah, there was an article that said the assassinated captain had actually transferred command to another guy before. No idea how accurate that is though.

[dubb93]

I would imagine if your country was being attacked because someone imagined in his head that you were nazis you would probably consider most of the attackers terrorists. I don’t really see the difference between Ukraine targeting terrorists and the countless terrorists we have targeted and killed over the years.

[Edward64]

Haven't seen this before. A bird's eye view of a blast and then the "shockwave". Hate to be anywhere close

South of Verbove, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukrainian forces hit a Russian BM-21 Grad with indirect fire.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1679492865343332355

[Edward64]

Oh, what coulda, shoulda, woulda.

Shoulda roll the dice and gone out in a blaze of glory. But now, accepting photographs of you sitting in your underwear in a tent.

https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2023/07/NYPICHPDPICT000014068252.jpg?resize=720,709&quality=75&strip=all

[Groundhog]

I make a distinction between killing and assassination in this context. Killing in combat or in the front lines, no problem. Assassination when one is back home is different.

Apply that to US troops. Would you say it's justified to assassinate jet pilots, company commanders (who killed in combat actions) after they've returned to the US?


Ukraine is involved in an ongoing war, and this was eliminating a military target. Eliminating individuals AFTER the war ends, different story. Otherwise, fair game.

[Edward64]

Let's hope the damage is significant (but minimal civilian casualties).

Ukraine needs to apply enough continuous pressure where there is a mass exodus/panic of Russian civilians back into Russia proper.

Developing story around the Kerch Bridge in Russian-occupied Crimea.

According multiple sources the bridge was under attack and hit by two strikes at 03:20am local time. The lack of anti aircraft fire suggests that it is was a naval USV attack.

It is still unclear how severe the damage is but the rumors say that one span of the car bridge is gone. Ferry services have been suspended, too. The light of the bridge is partially turned off (or electricity cut).

Traffic on both sides of the bridge is accumulating and the regional occupation commander suggests to enter Crimea using the temporarily occupied land bridge of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

[NobodyHere]

I think we've read this story before:

Lukashenko claims Poland is trying to annex Ukraine, Wagner troops want to invade (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/lukashenko-claims-poland-is-trying-to-annex-ukraine-wagner-troops-want-to-invade/ar-AA1eeM0w?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=2cc55cb7f6ff4c8c8d1b60951142df92&ei=42)

[Edward64]

The threat is more real by a couple notches as Wagner troops are now in Belarus.

But nothing big will happen to Poland, but I can see some minimal cross border incursions "mistakes" and/or exchange of gunfire to distract NATO. It's to Russia benefit to keep NATO distracted some & watching an additional border.

I've read Zelenskyy downplayed the threat from Wagner coming from the North. Not sure why, I'd think that's the real threat (Kyiv is relatively close to that border, about 140 miles).

Unfortunately, looks like this war is dragging out. Would be nice to see a Ukrainian breakthrough.

[Edward64]

Supposedly video of US cluster munition at work.

Night video is pretty grainy but still fascinating. Definitely hate to be on the receiving end of that.

Blocked (https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/15diev1/m864_cluster_munitions_used_by_the_afu/)

[Edward64]

Ukraine has hit Moscow again with a second drone in the past 3-4 days.

There are some videos out there. More symbolic, didn't do massive damage but bringing the war closer home to Muscovites. Heck, they need to land one at Red Square.

Although great for Ukrainian morale, I do wonder if this will result in increased Russian patriotism and stiffen their resolve. I've watched a YT video of a westerner visiting Russian malls. Even with western companies withdrawing, it's still pretty much life goes on, no noticeable significant hardships in Moscow.

[Edward64]

Not good trend for Ukraine or Joe.

I'm sure if Ukraine was making fantastic gains like late last year, the % will be up. If it continues at this pace with stalemate or only incremental wins, it won't be good for public opinion.

The embedded survey also had the question "Should US do more", from high of 62% to now 48%.

CNN Poll: Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html)
Most Americans oppose Congress authorizing additional funding to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, as the public splits over whether the US has already done enough to assist Ukraine.

Overall, 55% say the US Congress should not authorize additional funding to support Ukraine vs. 45% who say Congress should authorize such funding. And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more. A poll conducted in the early days of the Russian invasion in late February 2022 found 62% who felt the US should have been doing more.

Partisan divisions have widened since that poll, too, with most Democrats and Republicans now on opposing sides of questions on the US role in Ukraine.
When asked specifically about types of assistance the US could provide to Ukraine, there is broader support for help with intelligence gathering (63%) and military training (53%) than for providing weapons (43%), alongside very slim backing for US military forces to participate in combat operations (17%).

[Edward64]

Pretty depressing update.

Western allies receive increasingly 'sobering' updates on Ukraine's counteroffensive: 'This is the most difficult time of the war' | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/politics/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-briefings/index.html)

Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”

The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

[Edward64]

I guess we shouldn't complain about the Fed missing the inflation signs and our .25 .50 .75 incremental hikes vs Russia's 3.5 hike.

Responding to a rapidly deteriorating ruble, the Bank of Russia hiked its key interest rate on Tuesday by 3.5 percentage points to 12%.

Some policy wonks are saying this does not mean Russia is going off the cliff anytime soon. But does seem to be a huge surprise which is typically needed to address some sort of big immediate crisis.

Maybe all the sanctions are beginning to really bite.

[NobodyHere]

Yeah, maybe sanctions, or maybe the farms and factories of Russia are missing the labor that have been sent to the frontlines.

[Edward64]

Yeah, maybe sanctions, or maybe the farms and factories of Russia are missing the labor that have been sent to the frontlines.

I've watched a couple of his episodes on life in Russia. He vlogging in supermarkets and shopping malls.

Travelling with Russell - YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/@TravellingwithRussell)

TBH, it doesn't look like the war has significantly adversely impacted most people so far. I'm sure there's pain and some poor sods have it worse than others, but most people seem to be okay.

[GrantDawg]

They couldn't get him near a window:
<samp class="EmbedCode-container"><code class="EmbedCode-code"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: Yevgeny Prigozhin, owner of the Wagner Group, was on the passenger list of a plane that crashed in Russia. All 10 people aboard were killed. <a href="https://t.co/DSSVRxZnPj">https://t.co/DSSVRxZnPj</a></p>&mdash; The Associated Press (@AP) <a href="https://twitter.com/AP/status/1694400517684830311?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 23, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </code></samp>

[Edward64]

Nice, very subtle.

Feel sorry for the other 9 people caught up in it.

[GrantDawg]

There are reports from Wagner group that it was shot down.

[Edward64]

Why the frak didn't he just keep on rolling into Moscow.

[albionmoonlight]

If you come at the king, you best not miss. He came at the king and decided to call it off halfway through. This seems completely inevitable.

[Solecismic]

Assassinating the leader of a group of 25,000 mercenaries who were able to do tremendous damage to your military on a half-hearted half-march to your capital and is now stationed in a neighboring country... seems like a bad long-term move. Then again, not assassinating him seems like a bad long-term move.

Oh, when you're 70 and clinging to leadership while hiding in your bunker and the only thing that's keeping you alive is your toady relationship with the dictator of the largest country on earth. China's going to eat Russia like it's the Big Ten and it's time for some Pac 12 snacks.

[Edward64]

Supposedly of the plane.

Video missed the explosion but it was a long way down ...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694397010680361239?s=20

[Thomkal]

I am seeing some reporting now that there was a second Wagner plane that flew back to Moscow after the first plane blew up. Given that its Russia we may never know what happened unless he shows up alive on TV/social media somewhere

[JPhillips]

If you come at the king, you best not miss. He came at the king and decided to call it off halfway through. This seems completely inevitable.

He threw the party but nobody came. Once it was obvious he wasn't going to get the military to join him, his fate was sealed.

[RainMaker]

Utkin was on the plane too so they got 2 birds with one missile.

[NobodyHere]

I wasn't expecting this so soon

Crimea: Ukraine says it landed troops on the shores of Russian-occupied peninsula | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/europe/ukraine-crimea-operation-russia-intl/index.html)

I wish the best of luck!

[Edward64]

Nice. Need a panicked Russian civilian population to go home. Hope more to come.


(But doesn't make up for the approx 2%+ swing back into the negative today ... WTF)

[Edward64]

Supposedly of the plane.

Video missed the explosion but it was a long way down ...

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1694397010680361239?s=20

Supposedly fake

NewsMobile fact-checked the above claim and found it to be Misleading.

Running the keyframes of the video through Reverse Image Search, we came across the same video uploaded on YouTube back in June 2023. The title of the video reads, “Plane crash near Voronezh.” It suggests that the viral video is not related to mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane crash.
Taking a hint from it, we did an open keyword search and came across the same video uploaded on the official YouTube handle of Daily Mail dated June 26. The title of the video reads, “Wagner soldiers shoot down Russian plane during attempted coup.” According to the description, the video showed a Russian Air Force AN-26 plane shot down by a Wagner soldier. Other media houses also reported the same.

[Edward64]

re: Russian jet firing at a RAF surveillance aircraft. Read about this incident earlier but more detailed account below.

Scary how something like this could happen in a (supposedly) modern country's airforce.

I want to know if the first pilot is still flying.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66798508
As the two Russian SU-27s approached the RAF spy plane, they received a communication from their ground station controller.

One western source told the BBC the words they received were to the effect of "you have the target".

This ambiguous language was interpreted by one of the Russian pilots as permission to fire.

The loose language appears to have shown a high degree of unprofessionalism by those involved, sources said. In contrast, Nato pilots use very precise language when asking for and receiving permission to fire.

The Russian pilot released an air-to-air missile, which successfully launched but failed to lock on to its target, the BBC has been told. It was a miss, not a malfunction.

Defence sources have told the BBC that a row then broke out between the two Russian pilots.

The pilot of the second SU-27 did not think they had been given permission to fire.

He is said to have sworn at his comrade, effectively asking him what he thought he was doing.

Yet the first pilot still released another missile.

We had been told that the second missile simply fell from the wing - suggesting the weapon either malfunctioned or that the launch was aborted.

[Edward64]

Nice set of charts to put US aid in perspective.

https://www.bbc.com/news/66870559
For more than a year and a half, the US president has followed up that tough talk with American dollars. The US Congress has now authorised more than $110bn (£89bn) in aid to Ukraine. That includes:

$49.6bn in military assistance
$28.5bn in economic support
$13.2bn in humanitarian aid
$18.4bn to boost US defence industry capacity

As of 9 August, the White House said it had spent 91% of the allocated funds. The administration is currently asking Congress for an additional $24bn in aid, including $14bn in military support.


I'm a little surprised that France & Spain aren't in the Top-10 chart for aid. Little surprised that Japan is on the list. Also disappointed that Taiwan is not on the list (but maybe told not to donate much so not to aggravate China).

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/2480/production/_131144390_total_aid-nc.png.webp



No surprise on US, Germany and UK. Again, surprised by France & Spain not on the list (but probably because they are further away from the conflict).

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/15918/production/_131144388_military_aid-nc.png.webp

[Edward64]

More new stuff for Ukraine. The ATACMS has been something Ukraine has been asking for. Assume there is an understanding there won't be a strike within Russia's non-contested territory.

Biden agrees to send long-range missiles to Ukraine - POLITICO (https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/22/biden-agrees-to-send-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-00117667)
The news is a major win for Zelenskyy and officials in Kyiv, who have long sought the missiles. ATACMS have a range of 45 to 190 miles and Ukrainians have long argued that they are crucial to striking deep behind entrenched Russian positions along a 600-mile front line.
Time is short so who knows if it'll make a difference this "season". Might blow up some supply depots (and generals) though.

“There’s still a reasonable amount of time, probably about 30 to 45 days’ worth of fighting weather left,” Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley said recently. “Then the rains will come in; it will become very muddy, and it will be very difficult to maneuver.”


So far, sounds like a Liberty Bowl season (not New Years Day) for Ukraine 2023.

[BishopMVP]

Ukraine took out most of the Black Sea Fleet command in the Crimean capital. Allegedly the info came from unpaid Russian officers https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-officers-sold-black-sea-fleet-intel-ukrainian-fighters-report-2023-9
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The moment a second Storm Shadow missile hit the Black Sea fleet headquarters in Sevastopol. <a href="https://t.co/Ipo4GmEuJx">pic.twitter.com/Ipo4GmEuJx</a></p>&mdash; NOELREPORTS ���� ���� (@NOELreports) <a href="https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705284692310737048?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 22, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Edward64]

Somewhat worrisome.

Western ammo stocks at 'bottom of the barrel' as Ukraine war drags on, NATO official warns | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/04/europe/uk-nato-ukraine-war-ammunition-intl-hnk-ml/index.html)
Western militaries are running out of ammunition to give to Ukraine, NATO and British officials warned Tuesday, as they urged the bloc’s nations to ramp up production to “keep Ukraine in the fight against Russian invaders.”
“The bottom of the barrel is now visible,” Adm. Rob Bauer of the Netherlands, the chair of the NATO Military Committee and NATO’s most senior military official, said of the West’s ammunition stockpile Tuesday during a discussion at the Warsaw Security Forum.

An interesting metric from pbs ...

"The Ukrainians have been burning through in one month what the United States produces in an entire year," says Mark Cancian, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

[Edward64]

A Russian AWACs equivalent got shot down yesterday. It was nighttime and it shot a bunch of flares before the missile hit at about 1:02. Haven't seen anything like it before and oddly fascinating.

Blocked (https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1ay6dme/allegedly_another_russian_a50_spy_plane_shot_down/)

I can't imagine being in that plane in the last few minutes. Can't but help feel a little sorry for them.

[Edward64]

I'm not sure what to think of this. Surprising to me that Macron publicized this (and assume other western NATO countries are okay with it).

On one hand, I like it. Clearly, Russia is more of an existential threat to western European NATO countries than to the US. So they should be on the front with the US supporting in the back. On the other hand, any NATO troops on the ground will escalate and increase chances of a nuclear mishap.

I'm not convinced western European countries have the stomach for this. A better way is increase $ and weapons. Maybe increase recruiting of volunteers to go (e.g. former Gurkha's, French Foreign Legion etc.).

Macron doesn’t rule out sending Western troops to Ukraine – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-doesnt-rule-out-sending-troops-to-ukraine-ammo/)
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that sending Western troops to Ukraine should not be ruled out, as European leaders concluded a summit on supporting Kyiv.

"There is no consensus today to send ground troops officially but ... nothing is ruled out," Macron said at a press conference in Paris, where the meeting had just wrapped up. "We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war."
Macron confirmed the topic of Western boots on the ground in Ukraine was discussed in a "very free and direct" manner, adding that "everything is possible, if it is useful." The subject was first raised publicly by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who said a "restricted document" ahead of the summit had implied "that a number of NATO and EU member states were considering sending troops to Ukraine on a bilateral basis."

[Edward64]

Com'on Mike. Just put it up to a vote and see what happens.

House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a defining dilemma on Ukraine | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/27/politics/mike-johnson-urkaine-aid-dilemma/index.html)
Johnson will find himself outnumbered Tuesday. Joining him on the Oval Office sofas will be House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer — all of whom support the swift and significant dispatch of funds for Ukraine.

“There is a strong bipartisan majority in the House standing ready to pass this bill if it comes to the floor,” Biden national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday. “And that decision rests on the shoulders of one person. And history is watching whether Speaker Johnson will put that bill on the floor. If he does, it will pass, we will get Ukraine what it needs for Ukraine to succeed.” Sullivan added: “If he doesn’t, then we will not be able to give Ukraine the tools required for it to stand up to Russia, and Putin will be the major beneficiary of that.”

[bob]

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

[Edward64]

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

I think that is a fair question. I don't think the Admin has publicized what the "tactical goals" are (e.g. push Russia out, retake Crimea etc.). I'm sure those goals have been discussed with Ukraine but not publicized because I suspect the US and the Ukraine goals differ e.g. maybe Ukraine says completely out, US says keep what they currently have.

However, IMO the "strategic goal" is to prevent Russia from taking over Ukraine (and getting a win), and discourage any additional westward expansion.

I'm all for US continuing to support Ukraine but do believe the European allies should take the brunt of it. Ukraine would have fallen without US in the first year. Now starting the third year, Europe should take the lead on military supplies and $. I don't really know if the $65B is reasonable, but the allies should be shouldering much more than that now.

[cuervo72]

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

Well, I'd say try to think of what happens in the scenario where the Ukrainians run out of arms. Does Russia stop where they are? Or does Russia overrun the entire country, killing off all resistance, shipping people into Russia, and reeducating anyone they don't kill into becoming Russian? This is what I don't get about anyone calling for "peace" -- it takes two to have peace, and I don't think Putin is exactly interested in that. And even if he does stop for whatever reason, he'll just decide to grab another chunk (or the rest) at a later date. I don't see the logic in "well the Ukrainians will save themselves if they just stop fighting."

[bob]

I get your point but everything just reminds of me of the domino theory and Vietnam.

[cuervo72]

True, I wouldn't say it's unrelated to the domino theory. In Vietnam though you had a case where there were divided factions in the country already, and we weren't just sending support, we were actually over there. Ukraine is not divided, and no US troops are actively fighting over there. Seems like a couple of big pluses over Vietnam.

[JPhillips]

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

Has Russia given the slightest hint they would accept a pre-war partition of Ukraine? The war began and continues because of the Russians. They could end it at any moment.

[Atocep]

Besides blocking expansion of Russia and showing we will side with anyone they invade we're also weakening Russia just by dragging this out. The amount of money, manpower, and resources spent fighting this would make it difficult for Russia to even attempt another invasion any time soon. We're also getting field tests of some of our equipment along with getting a clear picture of Russian capabilities and Battle strategies. There's very little downside for us to continue to support Ukraine.

[Brian Swartz]

I'm all for US continuing to support Ukraine but do believe the European allies should take the brunt of it. Ukraine would have fallen without US in the first year. Now starting the third year, Europe should take the lead on military supplies and $. I don't really know if the $65B is reasonable, but the allies should be shouldering much more than that now.

I think the relevant question is the one we talked about back then; what if they won't/don't? Are we willing to accept the consequences if we lower our funding and they don't pick up the slack?

it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

I'm with cuervo on this. What you're saying is not wrong, but it does have to be balanced against the alternative. I think a world in which nations like the United States don't intervene to stop aggressors is a world in which more aggression happens until we have to intervene anyway but at greater cost.

[Edward64]

I think the relevant question is the one we talked about back then; what if they won't/don't? Are we willing to accept the consequences if we lower our funding and they don't pick up the slack?


Ultimately, yes.

Ukraine is important to the US but has decreased in importance after Year 1. Russia can still threaten western Europe but Russia has been weakened. And Europe have nukes to protect themselves.

IMO the more important threat to US is China. If asked to just pick either Ukraine/European allies or APAC, right now I'd pick the latter. $65B will go a long way for our APAC allies.

[Edward64]

I'm not sure what to think of this. Surprising to me that Macron publicized this (and assume other western NATO countries are okay with it).

Nvm. Macron jumping the gun.

Nato allies reject Emmanuel Macron idea of troops to Ukraine

[GrantDawg]

I get your point but everything just reminds of me of the domino theory and Vietnam.
The domino theory was based on a country (Vietnam) falling to communism would precipitate other countries falling into Communism. This is a country invading another country while stating they also consider surrounding countries as part of their territory. This isn't "Domino Theory", this is Germany in the 1930's.

[RainMaker]

Hopefully without being called a Russian stooge or something, I'm just really curious what the US's goal is in this? Do we really think Ukraine is going to push back the Russia army entirely out of Ukraine? Because it really seems to me like we are saying we are ok with lots of Ukrainians dying as long as we kill Russians too.

Funnel billions of dollars to defense companies.

I think a world in which nations like the United States don't intervene to stop aggressors is a world in which more aggression happens until we have to intervene anyway but at greater cost.

Come on man.

[JPhillips]

The Russians don't want a peace deal.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Former ���� President Medvedev, the head of Russia’s ruling party, outlines Moscow’s “peace plan:” unconditional surrender of Ukraine, its dissolution as a subject of international law, reparations to Russia, full absorption into the Russian Federation. <a href="https://t.co/2OBoS5MZzw">https://t.co/2OBoS5MZzw</a></p>&mdash; Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) <a href="https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1768266069955780856?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 14, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RainMaker]

Seems like a whole lot of not our problem.

[dubb93]

Seems like a whole lot of not our problem.

At what point does it become our problem? We lost them war when Ukraine didn’t get what they needed for the counterattack and they had to delay delay delay so I’d tend to agree that throwing more at this isn’t ideal but I also think Russia has been pretty clear that this isn’t the intended stopping point either.

[RainMaker]

At what point does it become our problem? We lost them war when Ukraine didn’t get what they needed for the counterattack and they had to delay delay delay so I’d tend to agree that throwing more at this isn’t ideal but I also think Russia has been pretty clear that this isn’t the intended stopping point either.

It wasn't our war to lose. We aren't responsible for their sovereignty. And it's not a region we should be meddling in in the first place.

What is our problem is entering a proxy war with a nuclear power. Us sending weapons to Ukraine decreases our national security. We don't need to be involved in every regional conflict around the world. Especially when it has little to no impact on us.

[cuervo72]

Might as well tell Putin how much he can safely take now, then. Xi too, I'm sure south Asia is no longer in our interests.

[RainMaker]

Might as well tell Putin how much he can safely take now, then. Xi too, I'm sure south Asia is no longer in our interests.

Why haven't you signed up to fight? With such a threat to America, shouldn't you be helping out? Ukraine is literally taking anyone willing to fight.

Visit Ukraine - How to join the International Legion of Defense of Ukraine: detailed instructions for foreigners (https://visitukraine.today/blog/1797/how-to-join-the-international-legion-of-defense-of-ukraine-detailed-instructions-for-foreigners)

[RainMaker]

Also China hawks have been tossing that scare tactic shit out for 50 years now and nothing has happened. But I'm sure any day now China will destroy the relationship they have with their biggest trade partner and torpedo their economy over some islands in the South Pacific. It's totally going to happen and not the narrative some think tanks funded by the defense industry keep floating for an ever increasing defense budget.

[cuervo72]

And what, bring my own ammo? Yes, they will want my fat 50yo ass that has never fired a gun. Stop being intentionally obtuse.

I don't mind my tax money going to them though. Which is really all that they are asking for. (And it doesn't go directly to them anyway. It goes to weapons producers, which are going to get their money anyway, ultimately one way or another. Might as well have those weapons go to someone that urgently needs them.)

[cuervo72]

I mean fuck, right now you'd probably be for someone, anyone arming Gaza. Would you go there? You seem gung ho on that, why aren't you there?

[RainMaker]

And what, bring my own ammo? Yes, they will want my fat 50yo ass that has never fired a gun. Stop being intentionally obtuse.

I don't mind my tax money going to them though. Which is really all that they are asking for. (And it doesn't go directly to them anyway. It goes to weapons producers, which are going to get their money anyway, ultimately one way or another. Might as well have those weapons go to someone that urgently needs them.)

Of course you don't mind. You have no skin in the game. It's not your life on the line and it'll be your grandkids who has to deal with the debt you left them.

And I'm being serious, they will take you. They are taking anyone willing to fight. If this is vital to the safety of America as you imply, why not lend a helping hand?

[RainMaker]

I mean fuck, right now you'd probably be for someone, anyone arming Gaza. Would you go there? You seem gung ho on that, why aren't you there?

I am gung ho on my tax dollars not being used to fund a genocide. I'm not calling for more war like you are in Ukraine, I'm calling for the opposite.

[flere-imsaho]

Look, Rainmaker, if you're not willing to travel to Gaza on your own dime and stand in front of Israeli tanks, how much can you really be against genocide?

[cuervo72]

No, it's not my skin on the line, it's the Ukrainians. All they are asking for is the ability to defend themselves. Or is the answer "tough titties, you couldn't do it on your own* so you don't deserve to survive?" Is that the answer you give the Gazans too? Have I misunderstood your stance there, are you essentially saying "it's ok for Israel to do what they are doing, just not on our dime"?

You sound like you're in Lindbergh territory here -- not worth defending anybody, any time. Shouldn't have worried about Europe in 1940, either! I mean, we didn't benefit from involvement there right? Just had to end up paying down the war. As for those Ukrainians with "skin in the game" -- and for Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Moldovans, Georgians...I picked up an old book last night, and happened to read these passages (warning, it's long):

"Yes, the proof was there. Surely there are certain things about being a battlefield which can be taken for granted by everybody; the first being that if men fought well there for a worthy object they proved themselves valuable human beings. How can it not be so? There are objects which are worth fighting for: the fate of the Slavs under the Turks proved it once and for all. That non-resistance paralyses the aggresssor is a lie: otherwise the Jews of Germany would all be very well today. A race that has not good soldiers must be enslaved by any neighboring race that has them: a race that has not the soldierly characteristics of courage and discipline cannot in later ages refuse to fight unnecessary wars and insist on proceeding with the work of civilization. If ever peace is to be imposed on the world it will only be because a large number of men who could have taken part in the drill display by the Guards or Marines or at the Royal Tournament turn that strength and precision to the service of life.

This I believe to be true, in spite of the obvious defects of many professional soldiers, which afflict them surely not because they are soldiers but because they are professional. It is doubtful whether army officers of high rank are more limited or unsound in their general ideas that lawyers or doctors of an equivalent degree of specialization. It is in any case unlikely that a soldier would hold as silly ideas about any sphere or civilian activity as vast numbers of civilians would hold about this battlefield. To countless thousands, even millions of people in England and America, the slopes of Kaimakshalan would have no meaning whatever except as a place where a lot of people had perished ingloriously, as they might have in a railway accident, because they were stupid enough to get mixed up in a fight. Many Americans, owing to their inexperience of aggression, sincerely believe that all wars are planned by armament manufacturers and that no people ever suffers any real maltreatment at the hands of another. They would not credit the simple fact that the Germans and Austrians and Bulgarians had invaded Serbia with the intention of murdering the inhabitants and seizing their property. Not having been educated to accept the possibility of such an act by the contemplation of a large area where the Turks had certainly done this very thing to the Balkans, and had gone on doing it for five centuries, they feel that this must be a fable spread by Vickers or Skoda. There has also been in America a wave of cynicism, entirely mindless, destitute of all content, save "Oh, yeah" and "So what," which, by a strange twist, results in a bland acceptance of the whole universe that has never been surpassed by Christian Scientists. An automatic scepticism regarding stories of atrocities leads to a rosy belief that every member of an invading army behaves with the courtesy of a cinema theatre usher. The Serbs must have been mistaken in believing that the Germans and the Austrians passed through village after village, wrecking houses, smashing the furniture, emptying corn and pouring wine and oil into the mud, and trampling on the icons. Any peasant in the invaded countries over thirty can tell you that it was so, but innumerable Americans, over and under thirty, can tell you that it was not so. This battlefield was therefore to them an area of pure nonsense, discreditable to the human race.

And so it is to some extent to many English intellectuals. If the Serbs had done something...something...something, they need not have fought. So one feels, when one is young, on hearing that a friend has to have a dangerous operation for cancer. Surely if she had not eaten meat, if she had not eaten salt, she need not have had cancer; and by inference one need not have cancer oneself. Yet cancer exists, and has a thousand ways of establishing itself in the body; and there is no end to the ways one country ay make life intolerable for another. But let us not think of it any more, let us pretend that operations are unnecessary, let every battlefield seem a place of prodigious idiocy. Of this battlefield, indeed, we need never think, for it is so far away. What is Kaimakshalan? A mountain in Macedonia, but where is Macedonia since the Peace Treaty? This part of it is called South Serbia. And where is that, in Czechoslovakia, or in Bulgaria? And what has happened there? The answer is too long, as long indeed, as this book, which hardly anybody will read by reason of its length. Here is the calamity of our modern life, we cannot know all the things which it is necessary for our survival that we should know. This battlefield is deprived of its essence in the minds of men, because of their fears and ignorances; it cannot even establish itself as a fact, because it is crowded out by a plethora of facts."

-- Rebecca West, Black Lamb and Grey Falcon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Lamb_and_Grey_Falcon)

Just swap out some names here and there as seen fit.





* I mean, domestically the options for self-defense are usually given as either a) rely on a police force, b) rely on the community, c) arm yourself. Seems like we're prepared to say no, none of these are valid in your case, you should just submit.

[flere-imsaho]

Rainmakeur, a French citizen in the late 18th century: "A war of independence a whole ocean away is not our problem, even if a) we have interests in the same geographical area and b) it's against one of our longstanding rivals."

[RainMaker]

Drop the 6th grade social studies narratives about America fighting for the freedom and independence of others. We're ethnically cleansing Gaza right now and bombing half a dozen other countries on a regular basis. We just got done invading 2 countries and killing at least a million people for nothing. The last century of American politics has had us invading countries and setting up violent authoritarian governments around the world. Name a country in Central America we haven't fucked with.

You don't get to stand on some moral high ground when this country has done far worse than what Russia is doing.

And you might have some case if the war was winnable in some way and not just putting our safety at risk so that Raytheon can get a higher dividend next quarter.

[RainMaker]

Look, Rainmaker, if you're not willing to travel to Gaza on your own dime and stand in front of Israeli tanks, how much can you really be against genocide?

Me standing in front of a tank doesn't end the genocide. Our tax dollars being withheld does.

[flere-imsaho]

You can't know that for sure. Maybe your heroic sacrifice galvanizes internal opposition and brings the situation swiftly to a halt. There's only one way to know....

[RainMaker]

Pretty big difference in the two. One is wanting your tax dollars to fund an unwinnable war and force innocent people into conscription so they can die for your amusement. The other is wanting to stop sending our tax dollars to a genocidal regime so that their ethnic cleansing stops.

You'd think your neocon stance would change after the past few decades of disastrous foreign policy and all the blowback. But maybe you'll prove Paul Wolfowitz and Dick Cheney right after all.

[RainMaker]

Nothing is funnier than Democrats who screamed about Bush's wars becoming proponents of his foreign policy. Can't tell if it's a genuine belief that those people were right or just a reaction to go against anything Donald Trump might support.

[cartman]

One big plus I see for continuing military aid to Ukraine is that we get to see how our weapon systems work against actual Russian troops and equipment, without any of our troops being in harm's way.

[cuervo72]

I still don't quite get why what Israel is doing is ethnic cleansing but what Russia is attempting to do is not. I don't understand why Putin is seen as more or less benevolent here in your eyes.

I'm mostly in agreement with Kasparov's assessment here -- if you appease Putin, he will not stop. Also, he is already at war with the West, if you acknowledge it or not (and if you turtle up and play isolationist or not). Yes, he will keep playing the nuclear card every time anyone threatens to stand up to him, but he does it because it works, and will keep doing it. And he'll keep waging war on the West, which has proven to him unwilling to stop him.

[RainMaker]

One big plus I see for continuing military aid to Ukraine is that we get to see how our weapon systems work against actual Russian troops and equipment, without any of our troops being in harm's way.

There's like 7 other countries we're bombing. We spent almost 20 years bombing Iraq and Afghanistan. Pretty sure we can test our weapons out there.

Progressing a war where innocent people will be killed and maimed for your human experiments is some sick Nazi shit.

[RainMaker]

I still don't quite get why what Israel is doing is ethnic cleansing but what Russia is attempting to do is not. I don't understand why Putin is seen as more or less benevolent here in your eyes.


I would be opposed to giving billions in weapons to Russia to do what they are doing to the Ukrainians too.

[cuervo72]

Progressing a war where innocent people will be killed and maimed for your human experiments is some sick Nazi shit.

Ok, thought exercise. Ukraine doesn't get aid. What happens next?

[cartman]

There's like 7 other countries we're bombing. We spent almost 20 years bombing Iraq and Afghanistan. Pretty sure we can test our weapons out there.

Progressing a war where innocent people will be killed and maimed for your human experiments is some sick Nazi shit.

military weapons being used against an attacking military is now sick Nazi shit? Give me a fucking break.

Yes, war indeed sucks. And innocent people are killed and maimed. Are you making a statement that the main purpose of sending military aid to Ukraine is so we can see what happens to non-combatants? If so, you need help.

[RainMaker]

Ok, thought exercise. Ukraine doesn't get aid. What happens next?

I don't know. That would be for that region to decide. Ukraine and Russia have had a long and storied history. It is not our conflict and has no impact on our country. At least no impact that is worth hundreds of billions of our tax dollars.

[RainMaker]

military weapons being used against an attacking military is now sick Nazi shit? Give me a fucking break.

Yes, war indeed sucks. And innocent people are killed and maimed. Are you making a statement that the main purpose of sending military aid to Ukraine is so we can see what happens to non-combatants? If so, you need help.

You are the one that said the value in this arrangement is we get to see how our weapons work. I don't know how else to view that statement.

If there is another reason you believe that sending hundreds of billions into this conflict is valuable to the United States, please let me know. I don't think "testing" is one of them.

[cartman]

we have a military to protect our national interests, correct?

we have developed weapons that were designed for the military to use against other militaries, correct?

the hope is that they are never used, but if they are, you would want them to be effective against the other military, correct?

if this could be proven without putting any of our military in harm's way, that would be a good thing correct?

it sucks that the weapons are having to be used. but the information on how they perform in a real world scenario against one of our biggest potential military adversaries, and how the adversary responds to them, can only help to strengthen our own military.

[flere-imsaho]

You'd think your neocon stance would change after the past few decades of disastrous foreign policy and all the blowback. But maybe you'll prove Paul Wolfowitz and Dick Cheney right after all.

I think you'll find that the typical neocon stance was one of proactive intervention, i.e. fomenting conflicts so that the U.S. could intervene. Which, you know, is not this. But then again, given your posting record on political issues, maybe I'm assuming too much.

[cuervo72]

I don't know. That would be for that region to decide. Ukraine and Russia have had a long and storied history. It is not our conflict and has no impact on our country. At least no impact that is worth hundreds of billions of our tax dollars.

"Long and storied history." You make them sound like Packers/Bears.

(And you sound like you're parroting RT talking points. Of course being a former anti-Clinton BernieBro, maybe you were never really far from that camp after all...)

[RainMaker]

"Long and storied history." You make them sound like Packers/Bears.

(And you sound like you're parroting RT talking points. Of course being a former anti-Clinton BernieBro, maybe you were never really far from that camp after all...)

Yes, I'm all for the Kremlin because I don't want $120 billion in tax dollars to go to an unwinnable war in Ukraine while we have a lot of uses for that money in our own country. You could cover the insulin for everyone in this country for the next half decade with that money. I think that was the estimate to fix all the seriously damaged bridges in this country. It's a considerable sum of money.

But yes, if you don't agree with spending countless tax dollars on this war and putting our nation at risk for escalation, you're on the side of the Russians. Just like if you didn't support the Iraq War, you sided with the terrorists. 20 years later, we're bringing back the hits.

[RainMaker]

I think you'll find that the typical neocon stance was one of proactive intervention, i.e. fomenting conflicts so that the U.S. could intervene. Which, you know, is not this. But then again, given your posting record on political issues, maybe I'm assuming too much.

What do you think the expansion of NATO was? It was one of the core beliefs of neoconservatives!

[GrantDawg]

Boy, you guys will never stop feeding that troll.

[Edward64]

I like the Chuck & Joe approach.

No problem in the counter attack & invasion after Oct 7 but there is a point where continued escalation is (I suspect) more of a Bibi staying in power. Let's have elections and see what Israel believes is the right approach.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s warning that Israel risked becoming a “pariah” and his call for new elections marked a momentous moment in modern US-Israel relations.

Schumer’s rebuke of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday contained extraordinarily strong language for a senior US politician criticizing the Israeli government. It was all the more remarkable coming from the New York Democrat who has a long record of staunch support for the Jewish state.
I also like US taking lead in building a platform/dock/pier to ferry in supplies. Details are lite but I saw below. I've read 2M meals a day supposedly and questionable effectiveness, but it is something.

On the ground in Gaza, there will likely be allies, contractors and aid agencies instead.
Biden said the Israeli government will maintain security at the pier. It is unclear who will be unloading the aid at the dock and moving it to shore. Experts have questioned how Israel, which has crippled aid delivery through land borders, would allow aid supplies via the sea.
No boots on the ground, smart move.

[BYU 14]

Boy, you guys will never stop feeding that troll.

Come on, he is the smartest guy in the room and never wrong, just ask him.

[CrimsonFox]

Boy, you guys will never stop feeding that troll.

which one? there are several.

[NobodyHere]

which one? there are several.

I'll be a troll if you are handing out Extra Toasty Cheeze-Its

But really I can of have a fear that simply handing more ammunition simply won't cut it anymore. Unless the West is willing to supply manpower than we are kind of just delaying the inevitable.

Rainmaker isn't wrong that $60 billion is a whole lot of money. Not that our politicians would spend it wisely...

[Brian Swartz]

Boy, you guys will never stop feeding that troll.

I don't think he's a troll, but I definitely don't think it's safe to assume that he is. The difference between troll and somebody who honestly believes things that are just different than other people believe is .. not always obvious. If we jump to 'they're obviously wrong, ergo they can't be serious', that's a dangerous place to go.

[flere-imsaho]

RM's not trolling, he's naive and a sucker for far left propaganda. And I'm not feeding him, I'm mocking him for my own entertainment.

[RainMaker]

RM's not trolling, he's naive and a sucker for far left propaganda. And I'm not feeding him, I'm mocking him for my own entertainment.

More people on the right than on the left voted against sending money to Ukraine. Read the news.

[RainMaker]

Also, if you are someone who supports the billions of weapons to Ukraine, your plan didn't work. Ukraine is losing. The Russian economy is booming. Putin has never been stronger. You were wrong on how to handle this. Take the L and move on.

[cartman]

It is also an incorrect assumption to say that the billions are spent on new things. We are sending over things already in inventory. In some cases it is even at a cost savings, since we are no longer having to maintain and then later decommission the items. If you donate items to charity, is that new money coming out of your pocket?

[flere-imsaho]

More people on the right than on the left voted against sending money to Ukraine. Read the news.

OK, they're naive and wrong too, so what?

[flere-imsaho]

Ukraine is losing. The Russian economy is booming. Putin has never been stronger. You were wrong on how to handle this. Take the L and move on.

No one cares about the Sudetenland, anyway.

[RainMaker]

OK, they're naive and wrong too, so what?

Yeah it's all 4D chess going on that people are too naive to understand. No one can really explain what we gain here, but trust me bro, it's worth it. Just like the last 80 years of foreign policy intervention.

[PilotMan]

Again, you talk like you know for sure that all good things would have happened if certain things were never done. In fact, you come at most positions this way, and maybe it's why you've never seen anything positive in any move you've ever disagreed with? You're so certain, and really, that's the downfall in your critical thinking, that if only 'this had been done' that something else would have happened that you agree with, that you can't see how far off base from reality that you really are.

I guess it comes down to your view that things are totally black and white. Things almost never go your way, you're constantly seeing the negative, and you're always justified that everything is wrong.



The last 80 years have seen the longest sustained era of global peace in history. Yet, that's not how you sell it. It's not all down to the USA, but you negate the realities to focus on your pov, which here, is simply wrong.

[RainMaker]

Again, you talk like you know for sure that all good things would have happened if certain things were never done. In fact, you come at most positions this way, and maybe it's why you've never seen anything positive in any move you've ever disagreed with? You're so certain, and really, that's the downfall in your critical thinking, that if only 'this had been done' that something else would have happened that you agree with, that you can't see how far off base from reality that you really are.

I guess it comes down to your view that things are totally black and white. Things almost never go your way, you're constantly seeing the negative, and you're always justified that everything is wrong.

The last 80 years have seen the longest sustained era of global peace in history. Yet, that's not how you sell it. It's not all down to the USA, but you negate the realities to focus on your pov, which here, is simply wrong.

Is the argument that you can't say something was bad because you don't know if something worse could have happened instead? That if we didn't help kill a few million Cambodians, something worse might have happened? That if we didn't fund the mujahideen, that something worse than 9/11 might happen? I guess there is a butterfly effect scenario that could play out.

It just seems like a cop out to me and a way to avoid having to defend the indefensible. Who's to say Sandy Hook was bad because maybe the shooter killed the next Hitler and we just didn't know? Is that the shade of grey you're looking for?

[PilotMan]

Dude, you're being purposefully obtuse. You must abide by the logic that the atomic bomb being used to end WW2 was the greatest tragedy ever inflicted by the US because of how grotesque it was, right? End of story, no other arguments, or positions are valid because the result of that decision was so devastating. And you act like that for every single decision, and that there can be no other possible answers.



Sure the US has lots of destabilizing impacts on regions they have operated. Sure there have been incidents where decisions were made that hurt people, but saying that if those decisions hadn't been made that everything would have ended all hunky dory, and that it was ONLY due to the fault of the US is the argument that you're making. Your isolationist attitudes put you and Rand Paul as buddy/buddy besties.

Things you deem as indefensible are not, in all likelihood, not totally indefensible. Just because they didn't ask your permission and fill you in on all the details beforehand doesn't mean there weren't valid reasons. Your use of hindsight being 100% perfect (in your mind) isn't the best lens to view the world through.



Your example is again, obtuse, and on purpose. By that logic every killing anywhere in the world is defensible for any reasoning. So no, that's not exactly a valid argument. Or the "grey area" I'm looking for. Just a weak strawman.

I just want you to admit that you see the other side of things, and that sometimes bad shit happens. And that you're also wrong about things you've said, or thought. If you can't even be grown up enough to do that, then why even bother talking with people?

[RainMaker]

I am saying that the past 80 years of interventionist policy and proxy wars have been a failure. The fact that no one can really point out instances of success in that regard tells the story.

Now maybe this is different. Maybe after all these years they've cracked the code. It seems to me that Ukraine is losing and that Russia is doing pretty well despite our "sanctions". But maybe we'll look back in 10 years and view the hundred or so billion dollars as a success.

[Edward64]

I am saying that the past 80 years of interventionist policy and proxy wars have been a failure. The fact that no one can really point out instances of success in that regard tells the story.
.

Re: proxy wars. For the record, I have answered this in 2 separate responses to you.

See https://forums.operationsports.com/fofc/showpost.php?p=3428730&postcount=9595

Taiwan
Philippines

There’s more but let’s start with these two.

[RainMaker]

We lost the Chinese Civil War.

Philippines didn't turn out bad if you think they will remain an ally in the reason. It required installing brutal tyrants and horrendous human rights abuses to make it happen, but I guess we've never really cared about that stuff. So I guess in those 80 years, trillions of dollars, and countless innocent lives, we sort of have an ally in the Philippines to show for our foreign policy.

[Edward64]

We lost the Chinese Civil War.

Philippines didn't turn out bad if you think they will remain an ally in the reason. It required installing brutal tyrants and horrendous human rights abuses to make it happen, but I guess we've never really cared about that stuff. So I guess in those 80 years, trillions of dollars, and countless innocent lives, we sort of have an ally in the Philippines to show for our foreign policy.

The US wasn't really involved in the actual Chinese Civil War when Chiang Kai-shek was kicked out (post WW2 fatigue). Debatable if US "lost" the war and definitely we didn't lose it (pre-Formosa, Taiwan) because of our intervention, arguably we lost it because we didn't intervene enough.

We supported Taiwan since then. Not bad in helping create and safeguard the 22nd largest economy in the World, which now is more strategic (location, chip foundries) than the GDP rankings would indicate.

Philippines. No one said it was going to be perfect, no country has a clean past (if you disagree, propose the country that will pass the RM litmus test and give me an opportunity to critique that country). Let's focus on the end results. Philippines is stable now, the 34th largest economy in the World and again, is more strategic (ports) than the GDP ranking would indicate.

Seems like a couple good wins.

[RainMaker]

The Philippines is not stable now. They are ruled by authoritarians who imprison and kill dissidents, journalists, teachers, and activists. The country is rife with corruption.

If you want to call it a win because they let us use their bases and such, that's fine. But it's a pretty fucked up country.

[Edward64]

The Philippines is not stable now. They are ruled by authoritarians who imprison and kill dissidents, journalists, teachers, and activists. The country is rife with corruption.

If you want to call it a win because they let us use their bases and such, that's fine. But it's a pretty fucked up country.

Sorry, we’ll agree to disagree.

Philippines definitely has issues (who doesn’t) but is not a fucked up country. Admittedly, if you are in a drug gang, you will get fucked up. But hey, majority of Filipinos support the draconian measure against them, even if innocents are caught in the crossfire sometimes. US, western democracy does not work for many countries, allow for ‘localizations’ even if that means a strong man.

And hey, they democratically elected a new guy who is less authoritarian than Duterte (but probably more corrupt). So yeah, pretty stable.

[RainMaker]

That stuff is fine to you because you don't really care about innocent people, especially if their skin is a few shades darker. A normal, empathetic person would be disgusted by extrajudicial killings of innocent people.

The Philippines is not a democracy. They jail and kill political opponents. They have massive issues with their electoral system. Dictators can be popular too, especially when you don't have a free press and have targeted teachers. Just look at Mao.

[RainMaker]

It is wild to see the people who talk about what a threat Trump is to democracy support so many dicators who oppose democracy. Seems like those statements about democracy are quite hollow.

[Edward64]

That stuff is fine to you because you don't really care about innocent people, especially if their skin is a few shades darker. A normal, empathetic person would be disgusted by extrajudicial killings of innocent people.

The Philippines is not a democracy. They jail and kill political opponents. They have massive issues with their electoral system. Dictators can be popular too, especially when you don't have a free press and have targeted teachers. Just look at Mao.

Of course they're a democracy. A "flawed democracy". Not quite up to western standards but still a functioning one.

FWIW.

Democracy index: Philippines ranking goes down again | Philstar.com (https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2024/02/17/2334031/democracy-index-philippines-ranking-goes-down-again)
Still classified as a “flawed democracy,” the Philippines has scored and ranked lower in the 2023 Democracy Index released by London-based think tank The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) on Thursday.

From 52nd in 2022, the Philippines dropped to 53rd out of 167 countries and territories included in the annual index, which measures the state of democracy across the world.

The Philippines ranked 54th in 2021, 55th in 2020, 54th in 2019, 53rd in 2018 and 51st in 2017.

EIU’s Democracy Index is based on the ratings for 60 indicators grouped in the five categories: electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture and civil liberties.

It classifies countries into four regime types: full democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regimes and authoritarian regimes.

The latest index found that the number of “full democracies” remained at 24, while “flawed democracies” increased from 48 to 50. “Hybrid regimes” decreased from 36 to 34, while “authoritarian regimes” remained at 59.

[GrantDawg]

There has been an attack at a Moscow concert venue. Several men in military apparel and guns. Several people killed and reports of bombs exploding. The US warned about the possibility of such an attack several weeks ago, so they had some indication of a credible threat.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Edward64]

Supposedly no confirmation it was Ukrainians but you'd think it was them or someone allied with them.

Some pretty bad stuff.

40 dead, more than 100 wounded, says FSB
Forty people are dead and more than 100 others are wounded following shooting attacks at Crocus City Hall outside Moscow on Friday night, according to Russia’s Federal Security Service.

According to IFX, up to five gunmen were involved in the attacks.

https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/c-2024-03-22t183455z-49253608-rc26r6adm1bf-rtrmadp-3-russia-shooting.jpg?q=w_1110,c_fill/f_webp

[GrantDawg]

Looks like a lot of speculation about a "false flag" attack to try drum up more recruitment and support for the Ukraine attack, but they just now announced arrest warrants for 5 men from a Muslim-majority region in Norrh Ossetia. There are reports one gunman is already in custody. Meanwhile the concert venue is burning.

Edit: No dola. Ed posted.

[RainMaker]

It's probably from the Southern region of Russia. They've been battling extremists in the region for a long time.

[JPhillips]

ISIS has claimed responsibility.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Not sure I remember the last reasonably-sized news story that drew more bot posts to Twitter than this one.

[CrimsonFox]

i see newly reelected putin is celebrating his victory with a mass shooting

[Edward64]

Good that it wasn’t Ukraine.

They would have lost a lot of western support.

[Edward64]

Just a thought experiment.

Assuming they did do the attack ... anyone outraged, disgusted etc. by the treatment of the perps?

https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/8c874da2-9b1f-4fe0-a2af-5005aeeac3c7.jpg

[Edward64]

Next week should be fun! Let's get to a bill and a vote, one way or another.

The Senate faces a tough choice on Ukraine aid as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says the House will move a Ukraine package after the April recess, but one that could be strikingly different from the $95 billion package the upper chamber passed in February.


The Speaker has already told Republican senators that a substantial portion of the assistance in the House bill would be provided in the form of a loan, an idea championed by former President Trump but initially dismissed by Senate leaders in both parties.
I like the "loan" compromise, an easy way to win some GOP votes. I'd assume when the war ends and whoever is in power can give good or extend repayment terms.

He has floated the idea of attaching language to reverse President Biden’s moratorium on new permits for liquified natural gas export facilities or provisions to pay for some aid to Ukraine by seizing Russian assets.
I'd think small price for Joe to pay especially in lieu of border security.

But she warned adding strong border security is a “non-starter for the Democrats, and the Speaker knowns that.”
All in all, seems the GOP should have made a deal back in Dec for Ukraine-aid-is-a-loan and also border security.

[RainMaker]

Good that it wasn’t Ukraine.

They would have lost a lot of western support.

Russia is our enemy and we've been pseudo-allied with ISKP for the past decade. Why would the West be upset with a group we helped create attacking an enemy?

[cuervo72]

Horseshoe complete.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Amendments offered to House Ukraine aid bill <br><br>Rep. M. Taylor Greene (R-GA): &quot;Requires all Members of Congress who vote in favor of Act to conscript in the Ukrainian Military&quot;<br><br>Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL): Appointing Rep. M. Taylor Greene as &quot;Putin's Special envoy to Congress&quot;</p>&mdash; Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/MacFarlaneNews/status/1780951664851050954?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 18, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RainMaker]

I mean, she's kind of right. What's the point of the weapons if we're not taking the war seriously? Outside of the obvious funneling of money to defense contractors.

[SirFozzie]

Most of us are taking the war seriously. She's not.

[RainMaker]

Most of us are taking the war seriously. She's not.

Tell that to the Biden administration.

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[SirFozzie]

there's a difference between "Wanting Ukraine to be able to defend itself against Russian aggression" and "Willing to start World War III"

[RainMaker]

Hitting their oil refineries seems like a really good way to defend yourself against Russian aggression. It's attacking Russia's biggest weakness. This is a war after all.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Most of us are taking the war seriously. She's not.

She may actually have a more realistic attitude about it.

And she ain't somebody I tend to give high marks for connectivity to reality.

[dubb93]

We should take it further as people tend to serve too long in Congress. You vote yes to a medical bill you are required to go become a doctor. Yes to a tax bill you go off to work for the IRS. You vote yes on an infrastructure bill you go sign up with your state department of transportation for full time employment. Each member gets one yes vote and then we find them a real job in that field.

[RainMaker]

Ukraine has forced conscription. So you're forcing others to die for your cause. Seems only fair to have some skin in the game.

Those other things you mentioned does not include a death sentence for tens of thousands of people who want no part of the war.

[cuervo72]

H.R. 8035 – Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 | House of Representatives Committee on Rules (https://rules.house.gov/bill/118/hr-8035)

https://amendments-rules.house.gov/amendments/ethnic%20minorities%20amendment240418131602176.pdf

127 Version 1 Greene (GA) Republican Prohibits funding until Ukraine lifts restrictions on the right of ethnic minorities, including Hungarians in Transcarpathia, to use their native languages in schools.

Okay then...

[Edward64]

Pretty good but like this one better.

Access to this page has been denied (https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4602827-moskowitz-trolls-greene-with-foreign-aid-amendments/)
Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) trolled Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) with a pair of amendments that highlight the Georgia Republican’s frequent embrace of pro-Russia misinformation and her opposition to foreign aid.

The first amendment calls for Greene to be appointed “Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy to the United States Congress.”
The second amendment renames Greene’s office in the Cannon House Office Building as the “Neville Chamberlain Room” — a reference to the World War II-era British prime minister who pursued a failed policy of appeasement toward Nazi Germany in the hope of avoiding a larger war.
AMENDMENT TO H.R. 8035
OFFERED BY Mr. Moskowitz of Florida

At the end of the bill (before the short title), insert the following:
SEC. ___

Resolved, that 403 Cannon House Office Building be renamed the “Neville Chamberlain Room”

Kinda childish but why the heck not.

[Edward64]

Ukraine claims a Russian Tu-22M3 shot down over Russia. But Russia claims technical malfunction. Russia reports at least 3 of 4 survived.

The Russian defence ministry said: 'A Russian Air Force's Tu-22M3 crashed in the Stavropol region after performing a combat mission while returning to its home airfield.

'The pilots ejected, three crew members were evacuated by a search and rescue team, and a search for one pilot is underway.

'There was no ammunition on board, the aircraft went down in a deserted area. There is no damage on the ground.

'According to preliminary data, the cause of the accident was a technical malfunction.'

Ukraine meanwhile claimed the plane had been downed by the airforce working in conjunction with Ukrainian intelligence.

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Morbidly fascinating watching it tailspin to the ground like that.

[Edward64]

I agree with US conditions not to use US weapons inside Russia proper in the first couple years. But we are now in a "new normal" in the war and both sides have incrementally escalated as the war progressed.

So yeah, I'm hoping Joe will let Ukraine use US weapons to strike inside Russia. The only condition he needs to insist on is only military targets.

Ukraine can strike inside Russia with British weapons, UK’s Cameron says – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-can-strike-russia-with-british-weapons-uks-cameron-said-in-kyiv/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication)
Ukraine has the "right" to use British-supplied weapons to strike Russia inside its own territory, U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on a trip to Kyiv.
:
Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s Western partners have set one condition for Kyiv to keep military aid coming – don’t strike in Russia. But countries including Finland and Latvia have since said they support Ukraine's right to use weapons they have provided to defend itself, including strikes in Russia.

[RainMaker]

Hundreds of billions invested and still losing. This country has become experts at losing wars.


Ukraine troops pull back in Kharkiv after Russia offensive (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1030vvy0mzo)

[Edward64]

I agree with US conditions not to use US weapons inside Russia proper in the first couple years. But we are now in a "new normal" in the war and both sides have incrementally escalated as the war progressed.

So yeah, I'm hoping Joe will let Ukraine use US weapons to strike inside Russia. The only condition he needs to insist on is only military targets.


Another small (but significant) escalation. Don't know how Joe defines "close to Kharkiv" but suspect, if the war goes on, that this will be expanded more. Overall, my guess is a good and needed move.

President Joe Biden has given permission to Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory with American munitions, though he has restricted their use so Kyiv can only hit targets over the border close to Kharkiv after Russia made significant advances around the city in the northeastern part of the country close to the Russian border, two US officials told CNN.

[Mota]

Hundreds of billions invested and still losing. This country has become experts at losing wars.


Ukraine troops pull back in Kharkiv after Russia offensive (https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c1030vvy0mzo)

Do you really expect Ukraine to win against Russia? That's like the USA going to war against Cuba.

I don't think Ukraine will ever give up, but will there be anything to fight for in a few more years? The whole country is going to be rubble.

Hopefully Russia will have found all of the Nazis by then, since that is why they are waging the war, right?

[Edward64]

Oh great. I don't know how this play out but it can't be good.

I'm guessing its primarily weapons & munitions. But I can see a bunch of NK soldiers on the battlefield which would be weird.

Putin says Russia and North Korea will help each other if attacked, taking ties to a ‘new level’ | CNN (https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/19/asia/north-korea-russia-putin-visit-thursday-intl-hnk/index.html)
Vladimir Putin said Russia and North Korea have ramped up ties to a “new level,” pledging to help each other if either nation is attacked in a “breakthrough” new partnership announced during the Russian president’s rare visit to the reclusive state.
:
The pair then signed the new strategic partnership to replace previous deals signed in 1961, 2000 and 2001, according to Russian state news agency TASS. “The comprehensive partnership agreement signed today includes, among other things, the provision of mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement,” Putin said after the meeting.

[Edward64]

Another "oh great". South Korea may be getting into the game.

reuters.com (https://www.reuters.com/world/south-korea-says-will-reconsider-providing-weapons-ukraine-yonhap-says-2024-06-20/)
South Korea will review the possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine, a presidential official said on Thursday, after the leaders of North Korea and Russia signed a pact pledging mutual defence in the event of war.

South Korea has provided non-lethal aid to Ukraine, including mine clearance equipment, but so far has resisted Kyiv's requests for weapons.

Along with Joe letting Ukraine use US weapons to attack inside Russia proper, Russia's summer offensive, both Koreas getting into it etc. just seems like a slow boil/escalation until something pops.

... and then there is China, Taiwan and most recent China-Philippines confrontations.

[Edward64]

Confirmed reports that Ukrainian troops crossed over into Russia. Extent and goal (one rumor is the Kursk nuke plant) is not confirmed. But something big is happening (eg not just a squad incursion).

I like this, hope it does well. Not sure I like the nuke power plant rumor but should distract the rooskies.

[Edward64]

A big explosion(s) in a Russian ammo dump today. There's a huge mushroom cloud at about :21.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/aA7pEo8LD3o?si=FCgN6NqsT2p8-PN6" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>


The X link below has some post explosion video

x.com (https://x.com/Tendar/status/1836264666592383070)


No real idea what's going on there right now. Seems to be a stalemate with small offensive actions in some places, no end in sight.

[Lathum]

no end in sight.

Don’t you know when Trump is elected he will end it in one day?

[Edward64]

Kinda cute. Those Ukrainians are pretty creative.

One of my more memorable movie scenes was from Aliens where the space marines used an automated, motion sensor machine gun. Nothing in US military, always wondered by (but I'm sure there's a good reason). This reminds me of it.

Blocked (https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/1fl07lb/ukraines_gunarmed_ground_robot_just_cleared_a/)

https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-images/imageserve/66ec93215aa5d4c84d33355e/Fury-/0x0.jpg?format=jpg&crop=1186,667,x0,y0,safe&width=780

[PilotMan]

When my son and I started flying full acrobatic, non-stabilized fpv drones that could do over 100mph, we agreed that in the battlefield, they would be cheap, and devastating, and couldn't believe that it wasn't being developed yet. Well, now we're here with Ukraine and every other war since then.



We're also moving into the other arena that I feared, and that's the development of fully autonomous drones and fighting weapons that are much cheaper than human life, and can be used to wage near perpetual war. We're there. I figured it would be the US that developed that sort of tactic first, but as long as we're not fighting ON US soil, it has had more time to develop elsewhere. I think Putin and the Russians will be the first. It needs a large country to develop it, and pay for it over the long term. Rebels and terrorists can use it here and there, but a large country will be able to use it to pin another state to the wall with nonstop weapons and virtually no human threat to your own side. From there, it can continue nearly without end.



The development of drone warfare over the past couple years is impressive. It's really been accelerated and the future is bright, or dark, depending on how you look at it.

[GrantDawg]

Everything is still remotely operated. As scary as that is, wait till they are controlled by AI. "Is your name John Conner?"

[RainMaker]

I think we're at that point now. You can send really cheap drones in to cause some chaos. They usually don't do much damage but can flood an air defense system so the more powerful missiles get through. But they also can act as an irritant that makes it costly for the other side.

Weapons are bad but I'm not as concerned about these. It helps level the playing field so smaller countries can resist larger countries. Ukraine would be overrun if it wasn't for their cheap drones.

[PilotMan]

I think we're at that point now. You can send really cheap drones in to cause some chaos. They usually don't do much damage but can flood an air defense system so the more powerful missiles get through. But they also can act as an irritant that makes it costly for the other side.

Weapons are bad but I'm not as concerned about these. It helps level the playing field so smaller countries can resist larger countries. Ukraine would be overrun if it wasn't for their cheap drones.


For now. The scale that large countries are capable of producing and implementing and the web, neural nature of their capabilities dwarfs what a small country can do. Once they catch up, it won't even be close.

[RainMaker]

For now. The scale that large countries are capable of producing and implementing and the web, neural nature of their capabilities dwarfs what a small country can do. Once they catch up, it won't even be close.

They can already wipe those countries off the map in minutes. It's just expensive. There really isn't a ton more they need to advance on militarily against those small countries with the air superiority they have. There's only so many times you can bomb a plot of land.

It levels the playing field by making it incredibly expensive to fight wars. Small countries can launch these flying lawnmowers that cost $100k that require $10 million dollar missiles to shoot down. They can also be extremely mobile. It's just a modern day guerilla war tactic that I think is good for the world.

[Edward64]

North Korea sending troops to Russia is concerning. From what I've read, they are not at the front-front lines (yet). Rumblings from South Korea also sending some troops to Ukraine is another step towards a wider war.

Assuming Kamala wins, she needs to make a decision for the US to scale back, continue as is, or increase support.

China-Taiwan is the bigger threat but Ukraine is the more immediate. Allies better have a good plan when Spring comes around.

[BishopMVP]

North Korea sending troops to Russia is concerning. From what I've read, they are not at the front-front lines (yet). Rumblings from South Korea also sending some troops to Ukraine is another step towards a wider war.
South Korea is presumably very on Ukraine's side but why would they send troops to the frontlines? Russia and China are the threats vs them and their best defense is the US backing them if attacked, they aren't going to go beyond the US to support a Ukraine or Taiwan and risk instigating in a time of US political uncertainty.

[Edward64]

South Korea is presumably very on Ukraine's side but why would they send troops to the frontlines? Russia and China are the threats vs them and their best defense is the US backing them if attacked, they aren't going to go beyond the US to support a Ukraine or Taiwan and risk instigating in a time of US political uncertainty.

FWIW.

Basically, to help with the weapon systems and to gather intel. But no, not battalions/brigades of troops.

South Korea Could Send Advisors, Weapons To Ukraine Over North Korean Troop Movements (https://www.twz.com/news-features/south-korea-could-send-advisors-weapons-to-ukraine-over-north-korean-troop-movements)
That information comes as Seoul is considering sending advisors and heavy weapons to Ukraine in response to Pyongyang’s deployment to Russia of upwards of 12,000 soldiers, including elite special operations units.

“There is a possibility that personnel will be sent to Ukraine to monitor the tactics and combat capabilities of North Korean special forces dispatched in support of Russia,” Yonhap reported, citing a source. “If deployed, the team is expected to be composed of military personnel from intelligence units, who could analyze North Korean battlefield tactics or take part in interrogations of captured North Koreans.”
That system is also known as the M-SAM, or Medium-range Surface-to-Air Missile, which is already deployed in South Korea and is optimized to destroy lower-tier ballistic missile threats.

Beyond that, South Korea, a major arms producer, could also provide offensive weapons, like artillery shells, howitzers, tanks and multiple launch rocket systems, Yonhap and the South Korean Chosun-TV media outlet posited.

[GrantDawg]

I wonder if the Korean peninsula produces more weapons per capita than anywhere else in the world.

[Edward64]

Looks like Zelensky is coming to the realization that he's going to have to negotiate. Certainly, a bitter pill to swallow after 3 years, but IMO better to negotiate something, get NATO/UN buffer zone, rebuild, and move on with a smaller but more secured Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia’s war in Ukraine will end “faster” when Donald Trump takes over as US president. National security analyst Beth Sanner says Zelensky is signaling to the incoming president that he is willing to go to the negotiating table.

I don't really know what to think of this but tend to be okay with it under that assumption Joe made it clear it was only for military targets and in Kursk.

ATACMS: Biden authorizes Ukraine to use long-range US weapons in Russia | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/17/politics/biden-authorizes-ukraine-missiles-russian-targets/index.html)
President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use powerful long-range American weapons inside Russia, according to two US officials familiar with the decision, as North Korean troops deploy in support of Moscow’s effort.
:
The weapons are intended to be used primarily in Kursk for now, a US official said. With its huge troop amassment there, Russia is trying to take Kursk off the table as a potential bargaining chip for the Ukrainians in any future peace talks, something that the US does not want to see. The idea is to help Ukraine hold on to Kursk for as long as possible, the official said.

[RainMaker]

Lot of idiots supported the hundreds of billions in taxpayer money to fund this failure of a war that even the Ukrainian people want to just end. And that's not even Biden's biggest foreign policy fuckup!

[Edward64]

Another step up the escalation ladder. Russia used an ICBM in Ukraine to send a message (and guess US had some sort of heads up and that's why they pulled Kyiv Embassy staff).

Interesting footage just because I've never seen multiple-warhead ICBM hit before ...

Alleged footage of the nighttime Russian ballistic missile strike in the city of Dnipro. The footage suggest the use of a missile with a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) which allows it to carry multiple warheads.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">New footage shows a wider view of the impacts in Dnipro this morning. <a href="https://t.co/LCyAggFS8y">pic.twitter.com/LCyAggFS8y</a></p>&mdash; NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) <a href="https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1859535662539526551?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 21, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[dubb93]

Lot of idiots supported the hundreds of billions in taxpayer money to fund this failure of a war that even the Ukrainian people want to just end. And that's not even Biden's biggest foreign policy fuckup!

Wonder what four years of full military mobilization and deployment to eastern Europe is going to look like in terms of cost after this invasion is normalized and Russia has four years to build the military back up with full militarization of the economy while Putin's buddy sits in Washington with his head in the sand?

[Mota]

Ukrainians want the war to end, but not if the cost is being annexed. And does anybody believe that Ukraine is the end of Russia's expansionist aggression?

[Edward64]

Ukrainians want the war to end, but not if the cost is being annexed. And does anybody believe that Ukraine is the end of Russia's expansionist aggression?

Not complete annexation. My guess is they'll have to give up some of the territory that Russia already took.

Key to any deal is NATO or UN or EU agree to place troops in some buffer zone area and for Ukraine to eventually get into NATO (e.g. heard 10 years being tossed around).

[Arles]

Lot of idiots supported the hundreds of billions in taxpayer money to fund this failure of a war that even the Ukrainian people want to just end. And that's not even Biden's biggest foreign policy fuckup!
The amount of money the US just "lit on fire" in support of the Ukraine is a massive failure.

The US just can't keep footing the bill for these eastern block European wars/incidents. If Europe is unwilling to pay when it's at their doorstep, why should the US keep paying? If we aren't willing to go to war over it, we should provide minimal support.

[RainMaker]

The amount of money the US just "lit on fire" in support of the Ukraine is a massive failure.

For taxpayers yes, but this was always about funneling money to defense companies now that the Afghanistan gravy train is over.


Wonder what four years of full military mobilization and deployment to eastern Europe is going to look like in terms of cost after this invasion is normalized and Russia has four years to build the military back up with full militarization of the economy while Putin's buddy sits in Washington with his head in the sand?

Trump was already President and none of this happened. And if you truly thought Russia was a threat to the West, why aren't we sending in troops and fighting the war ourselves? Why isn't NATO fighting to protect Ukraine? Why trust an inferior military relying on forcing people to fight for them the option to stop this? You can't say they're an existential threat to the United States and then not take it seriously.

[JPhillips]

Putin and Medvedev are the ones saying the plan is complete annexation of Ukraine and then attacks on Moldova, Poland, and the Baltic states.

[dubb93]

For taxpayers yes, but this was always about funneling money to defense companies now that the Afghanistan gravy train is over.




Trump was already President and none of this happened. And if you truly thought Russia was a threat to the West, why aren't we sending in troops and fighting the war ourselves? Why isn't NATO fighting to protect Ukraine? Why trust an inferior military relying on forcing people to fight for them the option to stop this? You can't say they're an existential threat to the United States and then not take it seriously.

You are totally right. Putin completely planned and prepared this invasion all during Biden’s first year in office. It wasn’t at all during the four years where the orange man was only interesting in his friend. He totally won’t do that again with his buddy taking the heat off of him for four more years.

[RainMaker]

You are totally right. Putin completely planned and prepared this invasion all during Biden’s first year in office. It wasn’t at all during the four years where the orange man was only interesting in his friend. He totally won’t do that again with his buddy taking the heat off of him for four more years.

He also did it in 2014 when Obama was in office.

However you want to spin it, the United States has spent nearly half a trillion dollars in Ukraine who is losing the war. So even if you think this is some righteous crusade, Biden failed like he always does. Come up with a better plan.

[Edward64]

Dead.

“Kirillov was a war criminal and an absolutely legitimate target, as he gave orders to use banned chemical substances against the Ukrainian military,” the source told CNN. “Such an inglorious end awaits all those who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable.”

https://media.cnn.com/api/v1/images/stellar/prod/2024-12-17t075244z-403656535-rc2vqba76jy6-rtrmadp-3-ukraine-crisis-moscow-blast.JPG?c=original&q=w_720,c_fill


Also reports of NK troops now engaged in fighting (and dying). There's been slow escalation over the past 3 years and will continue.

I'm rooting for a compromise to end this and hope Trump can pull it off. Ukraine will have to cede territory but they have to get some sort of iron clad security guarantee, buffer zone, NATO invite or like.

[Edward64]

Couple possible threads to post this but here it is

The plane wasn't anywhere close to the front lines or Crimea. Not sure how this happened ...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-media-max-width="560"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Increasing speculation in Russian media that the Baku-Grozny Azerbaijan Airlines flight was shot down by Russian air defenses that mistook it for a Ukrainian drone. Footage of the damage to the fuselage. <a href="https://t.co/QzsDbCLDtS">pic.twitter.com/QzsDbCLDtS</a></p>&mdash; Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) <a href="https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1871935445678055752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 25, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[Ghost Econ]

2 planes down and Trump will still give him any country if he asked.

[RainMaker]

This is happening while Biden is President.

[Edward64]

Yeah, Ms. Kallas and Mr. Macron, you go right ahead and take lead. I mean, that's what you should have been doing all along since Ukraine is literally at your doorstep. I mean, how much support can US expect if/when China decides to invade Taiwan?

No problem in supporting. Feel free to buy our weapons systems & munitions to give to Ukraine. We'll give you the family discount.

EU ready to take lead on Ukraine if US no longer willing, says Kallas – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-ready-take-lead-ukraine-if-us-no-longer-willing-says-kaja-kallas/)
Top European Union diplomat Kaja Kallas said Thursday the EU would be ready to take the lead on supporting Ukraine if the United States was no longer willing.

“I’m really sure that all the other members, and hopefully also the United States, are ready to continue with the support to Ukraine,” Kallas said on her way to a gathering of Ukraine allies in Ramstein, Germany, according to AFP.

“The European Union is also ready to take over this leadership if the United States is not willing to," she said, adding that "we shouldn't really speculate about future U.S. support" and it "is not in the interest of America that Russia will be the strongest force in the world."

[Edward64]

Nice possible deal in the works? If this means US will continue to support Ukraine (behind first line western Europe), I'm all for it.

We've approved $180B+ for Ukraine with $87B "disbursed" (not sure I understand why only $87B) per lock (https://www.ukraineoversight.gov/Funding/).

It would be good if US got additional stuff in return beyond the initial save western Europe, weaken Putin militarily, study/test out weapon systems etc. Maybe start doing loans also vs gifts/grants (and later Admin can forgive them as needed).

Russia to Trump: Back off Ukraine’s rare earths – POLITICO (https://www.politico.eu/article/kremlin-russia-slams-us-donald-trump-ukraine-exchange-rare-earth-resources/)
Trump announced Monday that he was “looking to do a deal with Ukraine” in which the U.S. would provide military aid for the war against Russian President Vladimir Putin in exchange for Ukraine’s "rare earths."

"We’re investing hundreds of billions of dollars. They have great rare earths, and I want security of the rare earths," he said in Washington, adding that Ukraine is "willing to do it."
I've read in reddit (so take it FWIW) that Zelenskyy is amicable to some sort of deal like this.

Ukraine has not yet commented on Trump's proposal, but sharing resources with allies is part of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s "victory plan" for the war against Russia.
The cherry on top is Putin's response

Russia to Trump: Back off Ukraine’s rare earths

The Kremlin delivers a warning to the U.S. president over his military aid proposal for Kyiv.

[Edward64]

Nice possible deal in the works? If this means US will continue to support Ukraine (behind first line western Europe), I'm all for it.


Looks like its confirmed that Zelenskyy is okay with the principle.

IMO it's a fair trade (after 3 years and $180B+, and keeping Russia at bay). Hope it happens.

https://meduza.io/en/news/2025/02/04/zelensky-welcomes-trump-s-offer-to-continue-u-s-military-support-in-exchange-for-privileged-access-to-ukraine-s-rare-earth-metals
At a press conference on Tuesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed comments a day earlier from Donald Trump, who said his administration plans to continue sending U.S. military aid in exchange for access to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. The promised resources include lithium, gallium, and neodymium, which are critical for producing a wide range of high-tech goods. Zelensky said he had already discussed this arrangement when he met with Trump last September during the U.S. presidential race to pitch his “victory plan” for Ukraine.

“We have plenty of [mineral resources]. As you can see, Russia has occupied our territory since 2014. Some of those areas contain large deposits of our mineral resources. We’re open to working on all of this with our partners, who help us defend our land and drive back the enemy — with their weapons, their presence, and their sanctions. That’s absolutely fair,” Zelensky said, fielding questions at a joint press conference in Kyiv with International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi.

Zelensky also warned that “other countries and other companies” (such as Iran and North Korea) would mine these critical resources if Ukraine’s resource-rich territory is left under Russian control.

The Ukrainian president also confirmed that his administration is now in formal contact with the Trump White House. Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, has begun talks with Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Waltz, and the president’s team has also spoken with Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.

[Edward64]

No idea how this will turn out, but it's better than status quo. A peace deal certainly won't give Ukraine everything she wants; it may give Russia most of what she wants; or both parties may begrudgingly compromise on key points.

Regardless, it's good that a conversation is going to start. The current situation is untenable for Ukraine and something will have to give.

The real question is going to be how to secure Ukraine's future. I can handle not being part of NATO (no security commitment from the US) but she's going to need some security guarantees from the EU countries. Maybe word it carefully where she can join NATO in the next Dem Admin.

President Donald Trump said negotiations to end the Ukraine war will start “immediately” after holding a “lengthy and highly productive” telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday morning.

[JPhillips]

Seems like Trump has already sidelined his Russia/Ukraine envoy and replaced him with Whitkoff who toes the line that the war was NATO's fault.

[whomario]

Seems like Trump has already sidelined his Russia/Ukraine envoy and replaced him with Whitkoff who toes the line that the war was NATO's fault.

REPORTER: Do you view Ukraine as an equal member of this peace process?

TRUMP: Ummmm ... it's an interesting question. I think they have to make peace. That was not a good war to go into.

They are going with the Munich 'peace' conference playbook.

[Ryche]

Pretty lousy way to start the negotiations, giving away two of Ukraine's chips for nothing.

[Mota]

Last week I was at the park and a grown up was punching a 5 year old. People were just shocked. I told everybody "don't worry, I'll stop this fight immediately". So then I went, kicked the 5 year old, and he stopped fighting. I'm a real peacemaker.

[Atocep]

Last week I was at the park and a grown up was punching a 5 year old. People were just shocked. I told everybody "don't worry, I'll stop this fight immediately". So then I went, kicked the 5 year old, and he stopped fighting. I'm a real peacemaker.

I hope you also blamed the 5 year old for deciding to fight that poor grown up.

[PilotMan]

It was a bad decision after all.

[RainMaker]

Pretty lousy way to start the negotiations, giving away two of Ukraine's chips for nothing.

I don't really get what you want out of this. We've spent hundreds of billions. Over a million people have died (many forced to fight). And Ukraine is still losing.

It was a catastrophic foreign policy failure. Your alternative options seem to be continue to light as much money on fire as possible to enrich a few defense contractors. Or start WW3 over some land in Ukraine that no one here knows anything about.

Ukraine is negotiating at a position of weakness because they're losing.

[JonInMiddleGA]

I don't really get what you want out of this. We've spent hundreds of billions. Over a million people have died (many forced to fight). And Ukraine is still losing.

It was a catastrophic foreign policy failure. Your alternative options seem to be continue to light as much money on fire as possible to enrich a few defense contractors. Or start WW3 over some land in Ukraine that no one here knows anything about.

Ukraine is negotiating at a position of weakness because they're losing.

Holy shit. You just articulated some basic reality fairly accurately. (we disagree over the motivation for the idiotic expenditure, but that'd be quibbling on my part).

I'm in agreement with your assessment overall, despite probably being as hawkish by nature as anyone here.

[Ryche]

I don't really get what you want out of this. We've spent hundreds of billions. Over a million people have died (many forced to fight). And Ukraine is still losing.

It was a catastrophic foreign policy failure. Your alternative options seem to be continue to light as much money on fire as possible to enrich a few defense contractors. Or start WW3 over some land in Ukraine that no one here knows anything about.

Ukraine is negotiating at a position of weakness because they're losing.

Even if you believe that, why would you just give away potential negotiation points for nothing?

[JPhillips]

I guess some things are genocide and some things aren't.

[RainMaker]

I guess some things are genocide and some things aren't.

Besides not understanding what the word genocide means, your strategy has led to the deaths of over a million people in that region. Ukraine has lost land and is losing the war. All at the expense of hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars.

What is your strategy here? Keep funneling money at a lost cause? Send troops and start WW3? I'm being serious. What's your plan because the current plan has been a failure. At some point you have to take the L.

[JPhillips]

The Russians have repeatedly said they are going to eliminate Ukraine and all the Ukrainians. Seems odd that you demand nothing from them.

[dubb93]

The Russians have repeatedly said they are going to eliminate Ukraine and all the Ukrainians. Seems odd that you demand nothing from them.

It’s an ethnic cleansing and honestly Rainmaker has to draw a line somewhere and between genocide and ethnic cleansing is as fair as anywhere.

Plus, the Palestinians have a strong military position in Gaza against Israel compared to Ukraine’s against Russia in Ukraine so they are more worthy of supporting than Ukraine is.

[RainMaker]

The Russians have repeatedly said they are going to eliminate Ukraine and all the Ukrainians. Seems odd that you demand nothing from them.

Again, what is your preferred strategy here? The current plan you supported isn't working, so I think we're all ears if you have a new one. What is it you think the United States should do?

[RainMaker]

It’s an ethnic cleansing and honestly Rainmaker has to draw a line somewhere and between genocide and ethnic cleansing is as fair as anywhere.

Plus, the Palestinians have a strong military position in Gaza against Israel compared to Ukraine’s against Russia in Ukraine so they are more worthy of supporting than Ukraine is.

I must have missed the part where our tax dollars were going to Russia to do this. The difference is that we could end the genocide in Gaza immediately. We can't do anything meaningful to help Ukraine that doesn't start WW3.

[dubb93]

I must have missed the part where our tax dollars were going to Russia to do this. The difference is that we could end the genocide in Gaza immediately. We can't do anything meaningful to help Ukraine that doesn't start WW3.

So this whole time it’s been about money rather than principles. Got it.

[dubb93]

Good news for you then is that the DOGE Boyz will soon be on the case so you can rest easy.

[JPhillips]

I think the Ukrainians should take the lead in any peace agreement. We have no business giving parts of their country away even if we were to decide to cut off funding.

The Russians could end this war at any time and we should be clear about that. They are the aggressor not NATO.

[RainMaker]

So this whole time it’s been about money rather than principles. Got it.

I'm an American and don't have any say in what Russia does. I do have some small say in what America does.

[RainMaker]

I think the Ukrainians should take the lead in any peace agreement. We have no business giving parts of their country away even if we were to decide to cut off funding.

The Russians could end this war at any time and we should be clear about that. They are the aggressor not NATO.

That's fine, but I don't think they'd get nearly as much in a peace agreement without the United States being involved. Ukraine isn't exactly negotiating from a position of power here.

I'm also still not sure I understand what your plan is. You want us to continue to send them a ton of money but not be involved in anything else? It doesn't seem like there is any plan you like outside of doing the opposite of what Trump says.

[JPhillips]

Russia drone bombed the dome over the Chernobyl reactor.

[PilotMan]

So nice to see the prevailing mentality in government spending is nothing for anyone who isn't white or an american, let's take every penny that provides a service for the public and just give it to the rich, because they promised to make a profit on the government now. Giving into the isolationists just gives more power to the anti-american powers that are willing to spend it. Pushing the global power balance at odds with the US. It's also one of the biggest reasons we've had world peace for decades.

[Mota]

So nice to see the prevailing mentality in government spending is nothing for anyone who isn't white or an american, let's take every penny that provides a service for the public and just give it to the rich, because they promised to make a profit on the government now. Giving into the isolationists just gives more power to the anti-american powers that are willing to spend it. Pushing the global power balance at odds with the US. It's also one of the biggest reasons we've had world peace for decades.

You're 100% right here. A lot of "supposed" US allies are being pushed away and threatened. Their trade is also threatened. So naturally, they are going to build new relationships instead.

[RainMaker]

So nice to see the prevailing mentality in government spending is nothing for anyone who isn't white or an american, let's take every penny that provides a service for the public and just give it to the rich, because they promised to make a profit on the government now. Giving into the isolationists just gives more power to the anti-american powers that are willing to spend it. Pushing the global power balance at odds with the US. It's also one of the biggest reasons we've had world peace for decades.

You're describing what we have been doing. Hundreds of billions funneled to wealthy defense contractors as over a million people get slaughtered. If you're arguing that we should be building schools or feeding the poor, that's one thing. But this is just a grift for the wealthiest people to steal tax dollars.

[RainMaker]

Vance threatened Russia with military action if they don't push for peace. So I guess you guys are getting what you want if that happens. A much more aggressive approach.

Vance says US has economic and military ‘tools of leverage’ if Russia doesn’t push for peace with Ukraine, WSJ reports | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/politics/jd-vance-us-troops-russia-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html)

[GrantDawg]

Vance threatened Russia with military action if they don't push for peace. So I guess you guys are getting what you want if that happens. A much more aggressive approach.

Vance says US has economic and military ‘tools of leverage’ if Russia doesn’t push for peace with Ukraine, WSJ reports | CNN Politics (https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/14/politics/jd-vance-us-troops-russia-ukraine-intl-hnk/index.html)
Sounds more like empty saber-rattling to sound like the White House is not trying to give Russia everything they want, which with what the President and Secretary of Defense are saying (you know, the guys that can actually do anything), they absolutely are.

[RainMaker]

It appears it's the same deal that was on the table in 2022 minus NATO membership. All things considered, that would be a pretty damn good deal for Ukraine considering how poorly the war is going for them. Zelensky's political career is tied to the war continuing, so I understand why he might have changed his tune on this.

Even if you support the old strategy of sending hundreds of billions to Ukraine, they're running out of people to send into that meat grinder. You either work out a peace deal or send in US troops. I get why you all prefer the latter (none of you will fight), but it would be pretty disastrous for the world.

[RainMaker]

Some of you are going to have to accept that while Trump is bad, Biden was such a disaster on foreign policy that even bad decisions by Trump are going to be an enormous improvement over the status quo here. There was no plan for this war besides funneling money to defense contractors until Ukraine ran out of troops.

[SirFozzie]

x.com (https://x.com/joshrogin/status/1890450535083290803)

Gangster mentality

[PilotMan]

You're describing what we have been doing. Hundreds of billions funneled to wealthy defense contractors as over a million people get slaughtered. If you're arguing that we should be building schools or feeding the poor, that's one thing. But this is just a grift for the wealthiest people to steal tax dollars.


You cannot see the forest for the trees. Power is in play, and removing yourself from the board because you insist that it's better spent here than there is simply giving away the game. You can't constantly insist on the purity test for everything, the world isn't that black and white. You play the cards your dealt, and you decide which shitty decision you'd rather have. In this case, walking away from the table is about the dumbest thing you can do.

[RainMaker]

You cannot see the forest for the trees. Power is in play, and removing yourself from the board because you insist that it's better spent here than there is simply giving away the game. You can't constantly insist on the purity test for everything, the world isn't that black and white. You play the cards your dealt, and you decide which shitty decision you'd rather have. In this case, walking away from the table is about the dumbest thing you can do.

So what's the plan? Ukraine is running out of people to fight. Over a million are dead. I still can't get any of you to actually tell me what you want to do in Ukraine.

[RainMaker]

x.com (https://x.com/joshrogin/status/1890450535083290803)

Gangster mentality

This is literally the same plan put forth by Senators Blumenthal and Graham last year and supported by Biden. I'm sorry you had to find this out but the war was always about enriching wealthy people. Neither party gives a shit about Ukraine sovereignty.

[JPhillips]

Zelensky and the Ukrainians get to decide when and how they negotiate.

Your love of seeing children kidnapped by Putin is really sick.

[RainMaker]

And we get to decide what we do with our tax dollars.

You also mean Zelensky, not Ukrainians. They've suspended elections and have forced conscriptions. Ukrainian citizens actually have no say in this at all.

[JPhillips]

Wow all you care about is money instead of the tens of thousands of kidnapped children.

[RainMaker]

These kidnapped children happened under Biden and under the plan you support. Maybe time to try something different.

[PilotMan]

So what's the plan? Ukraine is running out of people to fight. Over a million are dead. I still can't get any of you to actually tell me what you want to do in Ukraine.


Tilting the conversation to how to end it doesn't justify your stance on how it started, or what lead us here does it? Nor does it nullify the decades long policy of the USA to be the beacon for freedom and democracy in the world. Where is the world if we'd gone home after WW2 and simply done nothing in the world afterwards?

[PilotMan]

These kidnapped children happened under Biden and under the plan you support. Maybe time to try something different.


I'm still shocked at how you justify that this entire event is in any way Biden's fault? Last time I looked he was the leader of a foreign country, and as powerful as it was, he can't just force another world power to just do what he wants.

[RainMaker]

Tilting the conversation to how to end it doesn't justify your stance on how it started, or what lead us here does it?

My stance is that Russia is wrong and the aggressor. Literally the same as you. Where we differ on is whether pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into a lost cause is sustainable long term. Especially when Ukraine is running out of people.

So again, what plan do you think is best? You keep avoiding this question and I think I know why.

Nor does it nullify the decades long policy of the USA to be the beacon for freedom and democracy in the world. Where is the world if we'd gone home after WW2 and simply done nothing in the world afterwards?

You can't be serious. Wait till you find out what the CIA has been up to over the past 80 years. We even fought some wars since then.

[RainMaker]

I'm still shocked at how you justify that this entire event is in any way Biden's fault? Last time I looked he was the leader of a foreign country, and as powerful as it was, he can't just force another world power to just do what he wants.

I'm not saying it's his fault, I am saying that his plan failed miserably. Russia is winning, millions have died, and we used hundreds of billions of dollars for nothing.