WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[jeheinz72]

I'll bite, for now.

Vote DodgerChick

[Dr. Sak]

I just want to throw this bit of info out there since we now know Cronin is a wolf...

st.cronin Passacaglia Wolf
st.cronin Chief Rum wolf
st.cronin The Jackal wolf

Here are Cronin's 3 scans...not including night 1. We know Pass was good. I also believe that a wolf would not want to throw attention to his buddies by scanning them as a wolf...or saying that he scan them as a wolf.

Just info to throw out there.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by bsak16

I just want to throw this bit of info out there since we now know Cronin is a wolf...

st.cronin Passacaglia Wolf
st.cronin Chief Rum wolf
st.cronin The Jackal wolf

Here are Cronin's 3 scans...not including night 1. We know Pass was good. I also believe that a wolf would not want to throw attention to his buddies by scanning them as a wolf...or saying that he scan them as a wolf.

Just info to throw out there.

I don't think it's completely out of the realm of possibility that he would, but I don't think thsoe two are anyhow. Or at least aren't today's concern.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

I scanned Render, as I wasn't sure he had a lot of post-N0 scans, and he came up a student.

JH I think you missed this scan result from CR.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bsak16

I just want to throw this bit of info out there since we now know Cronin is a wolf...

st.cronin Passacaglia Wolf
st.cronin Chief Rum wolf
st.cronin The Jackal wolf

Here are Cronin's 3 scans...not including night 1. We know Pass was good. I also believe that a wolf would not want to throw attention to his buddies by scanning them as a wolf...or saying that he scan them as a wolf.

Just info to throw out there.

I think just the opposite. I can't imagine a player like cronin NOT implicating a wolf correctly in one of his scans early on, so as to get exactly this sort of analysis.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Why, are you and your wolf buddies gonna come by and swing the vote?!

Serioiusly, why would I say this to cronin if I was his teammate? If lynching me will give you data points, feel free, I'll take one for the team.

[mauchow]

Going without the group here. I don't think DC is a wolf and CR has struck me moreso. I wish I scanned him last night instead.

vote chief rum

[claphamsa]

how have some poeple only been scanned once?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

how have some poeple only been scanned once?

Well A) I'm discounting n0 altogether and B) That plan called for people to concentrate scans.

Personally, I'm fine with some people having not been scanned as much.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I think just the opposite. I can't imagine a player like cronin NOT implicating a wolf correctly in one of his scans early on, so as to get exactly this sort of analysis.

It is a good thought, but he was the one trying to get us to believe all of these scans.

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well A) I'm discounting n0 altogether and B) That plan called for people to concentrate scans.

Personally, I'm fine with some people having not been scanned as much.

Discounting Night 0 is a bit overboard if you ask me. I realize they were all villager scans, but, it was done this way purposely as a starting point. At least 50% of those scans are correct.

Regardless, my scan of nfg that night was correct, he was a villager. My second night of scanning was on Pass, who died as a villager. I was 2 for 2 at that point. Night three however my streak ended.

Why are we so adament about absolutely not counting it? From my perspective, I've hit 2/3 scans, that's decent. Again, I'm assuming that DC is not a wolf. If she is, I've hit 3/3! We'll find out tonight how accurate I really am if we go this direction, which I don't think we should. If I'm bored enough at work I'll try to decipher some stuff to see if there is something better that we can do.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well A) I'm discounting n0 altogether and B) That plan called for people to concentrate scans.

Personally, I'm fine with some people having not been scanned as much.

i agree on discountign N0 but there are some people who should get hit up more.... just my opinion

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Discounting Night 0 is a bit overboard if you ask me. I realize they were all villager scans, but, it was done this way purposely as a starting point. At least 50% of those scans are correct.

Regardless, my scan of nfg that night was correct, he was a villager. My second night of scanning was on Pass, who died as a villager. I was 2 for 2 at that point. Night three however my streak ended.

Why are we so adament about absolutely not counting it? From my perspective, I've hit 2/3 scans, that's decent. Again, I'm assuming that DC is not a wolf. If she is, I've hit 3/3! We'll find out tonight how accurate I really am if we go this direction, which I don't think we should. If I'm bored enough at work I'll try to decipher some stuff to see if there is something better that we can do.

and this is why i think you might be a wolf.... EVERYONE CAME UP GOOD N0 It has ot be wrong!!!!!! just not possible!

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

And that means bsak, MikeVic, Mr. W, NTN, Olie, SnDvls and Jackal (aside from Cronin's fake) haven't been scanned

right. this is a bit unerving. Here we are day 4, with all these scanners. THis many without a single scan is really unconsciencable (or however it is spelled). I would suggest ALL of these names to be our scans this eve.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

right. this is a bit unerving. Here we are day 4, with all these scanners. THis many without a single scan is really unconsciencable (or however it is spelled). I would suggest ALL of these names to be our scans this eve.

I would agree with the plan to scan purely based off of that list. I think we need to get some more data on people.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Discounting Night 0 is a bit overboard if you ask me. I realize they were all villager scans, but, it was done this way purposely as a starting point. At least 50% of those scans are correct.

Regardless, my scan of nfg that night was correct, he was a villager. My second night of scanning was on Pass, who died as a villager. I was 2 for 2 at that point. Night three however my streak ended.

Why are we so adament about absolutely not counting it? From my perspective, I've hit 2/3 scans, that's decent. Again, I'm assuming that DC is not a wolf. If she is, I've hit 3/3! We'll find out tonight how accurate I really am if we go this direction, which I don't think we should. If I'm bored enough at work I'll try to decipher some stuff to see if there is something better that we can do.

Mau, counting n0 is LUDICROUS. Just asinine.

We had 21 scans that night and ALL TWENTY-ONE were Student. If the rules of that night were the same as the other 3 (where 20 of the 51 scans we've had are wolf) then I'll eat my hat. There's just such a slim statistical probably of this happening that it didn't. Night 0 meant jack.

[jeheinz72]

Number of times scanned, living players


Chief Rum - 9
DodgerChick - 7
Barkeep - 6

mauboy - 3
Clap - 2
RendeR - 2

jeheinz72 - 1
Pumpy - 1

Jackal - 0
bsak - 0
MikeVic - 0
Mr. W - 0
NTN - 0
Olie - 0
SnDvls - 0

I don't think we should scan those top 3 any more. I really don't think more than 1 or 2 more scans is needed on the 2nd group. The rest are where we should focus.

[mauchow]

I understand the logic from a village stand point that N0 should be voided. But I think it is still accurate if you got the 'Right' hit on it. Which, I did, obviously nobody knows what I did except me, so you won't believe me.

There'd be no point in having a N0 scan if they are all false despite some being true.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

I understand the logic from a village stand point that N0 should be voided. But I think it is still accurate if you got the 'Right' hit on it. Which, I did, obviously nobody knows what I did except me, so you won't believe me.

There'd be no point in having a N0 scan if they are all false despite some being true.

Meh, not really. I maybe for proving someone is the TP, maybe, but really no. I wouldn't discount someone as the Class clown though because they were artificually given a correct hit on N0.

[mauchow]

Well, I would, I think.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by bsak16

It is a good thought, but he was the one trying to get us to believe all of these scans.

Right. So we believe one of the scans. We either then kill the person who was scanned and discover:
A. They're a wolf (let's trust cronin)
B. They're a villager (let's not trust cronin even when he reveals a wolf later)

[MikeVic]

Wow, nice job!

[MikeVic]

I think at least one of Jackal or CR are clean. I don't think cronin would put two wolves under the bus?

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Number of times scanned, living players
Jackal - 0
bsak - 0
MikeVic - 0
Mr. W - 0
NTN - 0
Olie - 0
SnDvls - 0

15 players left, atm, 7 without a scan. We'll have 14 after the lynch. I propose that we assign, via a random method (such as alphabetically), players to this list. The 15th player would then fill in the gap created by a lynchee. I don't anticipate everyone would follow this plan, but we could at least get (hopefully) one scan on each of these players.

If someone else likes this plan they should randomly assign players to the list above as I don't want to propose the method and also do the assigning.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

15 players left, atm, 7 without a scan. We'll have 14 after the lynch. I propose that we assign, via a random method (such as alphabetically), players to this list. The 15th player would then fill in the gap created by a lynchee. I don't anticipate everyone would follow this plan, but we could at least get (hopefully) one scan on each of these players.

If someone else likes this plan they should randomly assign players to the list above as I don't want to propose the method and also do the assigning.

Sounds fair. I'll do the assigning, if that sounds cool. I'd think I bought a little trust earlier today.

[jeheinz72]

Are we thinking two each to the 7 or just completely random?

[MikeVic]

cronin scanned CR as a wolf, and also was the first to vote on him one day. Wouldn't it be odd to put twice the heat on a fellow wolf? Or maybe he wanted us to vote for CR, CR comes up as a wolf, and then we trust cronin? I'm trying to eliminate people as wolf suspects, but having a hard time.

I'm fine with scanning anyone, and anyone scanning me.

As for who to lynch tonight, I'm not really sure yet. cronin was one of the three that I was thinking of, but he's gone now.

[MikeVic]

Yeah I'm fine with heinz doing the assigning.

I'm thinking maybe heinz can also put forth a plan for further nights, since wolves might make him a target. We know he's a villager, so that's someone we won't be lynching ever.

[Lorena]

just tell me who to scan

[RendeR]

Ok, interesting day to catch up on...

#1: HEINZ for the kill!!!! dude, great play! s I lways have said, Cronin is always a wolf, even when he isn't!!

#2: I am sort of stunned at the lack of scans on SO many people

#3: My night scan was on Clap and he came back as a wolf.

#4: Not sure how much stake to put on #3 because I don't think my scans are very accurate.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Are we thinking two each to the 7 or just completely random?

I was thinking 2 each. And I was hoping you'd step up to do the assigning .

[MikeVic]

I don't know how accurate my scans are either right now. Not counting night 0, that's two wolf scans.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I don't know how accurate my scans are either right now. Not counting night 0, that's two wolf scans.

There's approximately a 1 in 4 shot that you'd get two wolf scans on two nights (discounting your scan of me). It's worth paying attention to, but isn't too noteworthy either way yet, I feel.

[Lathum]

That was one of the coolest things I have ever seen in a werewolf game

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

That was one of the coolest things I have ever seen in a werewolf game

I thought you were married? err mean Dead

[The Jackal]

I'm down with the scan plan, man. Just let me know who to target.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Yeah I'm fine with heinz doing the assigning.

I'm thinking maybe heinz can also put forth a plan for further nights, since wolves might make him a target. We know he's a villager, so that's someone we won't be lynching ever.

Yeah, I'll assign them randomly (via random.org now). 2 each. I'd say going beyond that to the next night might be pushing it, I'll likely be dead so I can't really be of much help. It'll depend if they want to make the obvious night-kill of me or if they think they have a lead on the Teachers Pet or Class Clown

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Yeah, I'll assign them randomly (via random.org now). 2 each. I'd say going beyond that to the next night might be pushing it, I'll likely be dead so I can't really be of much help. It'll depend if they want to make the obvious night-kill of me or if they think they have a lead on the Teachers Pet or Class Clown

Actually, if you really only had one bullet what threat are you now? I doubt they'd bother with you knowing that your gun is empty.

[jeheinz72]

Ok, here's the scan plan.

I generated a random sequence from 1-15, listed everyone alphabetically then. First number was the person who will be the "fill-in" scanner to take the spot of whoever we lynch. Next two went to the first alphabetical name on our list, next two to the next person, and so on:

Fill-in person: NTNDeacon

Scanning bsak: RendeR and Clap
Scanning Jackal: Mr. W and me
Scanning MikeVic: Mauboy and SnDvls
Scanning Mr. W: Oliegirl and The Jackal
Scanning NTN: Dodgerchick and Barkeep
Scanning Olie: ChiefRum and MikeVic
Scanning SnDvls: bsak and PumpyTudors

Make sense folks?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Actually, if you really only had one bullet what threat are you now? I doubt they'd bother with you knowing that your gun is empty.

True, I don't have anything I can do, per se', but I'm also in the COT. Personally, I don't think I'm the teachers pet (just seems unlikely that the Teachers Pet would also be the guy who gets to find the gun, and I can't be the Class Clown) so I"m ok with me being night killed, since that means they didn't find either of those two roles.

We're at a point now where we have a pretty good idea of who can do what. I mean look at clap, he's 3 for 3 on his scans, so I'm like 85-90% liking his scans. Someone like MikeVic though we don't know much about his results, so I'm like 50% on his scans, maybe even less.

[claphamsa]

sure

[claphamsa]

I wish I had your confidence in me.....

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

I wish I had your confidence in me.....

Well, you're 3 for 3. I don't mind saying it, since I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that someone on the wolf team has a spreadsheet which tells them the exact same thing I'm seeing. I don't think you're the Teachers Pet though, to be honest, would just seem to easy for it to reveal itself like that.

[jeheinz72]

For the record, I know Cronin was keeping log of the scans, I pray that someone else on the good side besides me is as well. In the event I do die tonight, it's information the good side absolutely must keep a running tally of.

[oliegirl]

Sounds good to me, I'll scan Mr. W...

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Scanning NTN: Dodgerchick and Barkeep

yes, done deal.

[mauchow]

Okay, I got MikeVic.

[claphamsa]

we need a continegcy plan for if one of these poeple gets lynched or might killed....

[Dr. Sak]

I'm in...

Anyone have a vote count?

[jeheinz72]

Yeah I'm starting to worry that we're actually diluting ourselves too much. I mean two scans on someone isn't going to be much. Even if someone scans as wolf-wolf, do we lynch them necessarily? And what if random.org happened to make that easy for the wolves to manipulate