Obama versus McCain (versus the rest)

[Arles]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Well, the first cost is another $120B to the deficit (source).

The second is that you're just delaying the inevitable. But I realize that's part of the idea- take the drastic measures at a drastic time to stabilize things. However, you'll probably have some increased traffic initially in 2009 but then things would go back to the original problem of, well, not much value and worry in people's minds.

And, ultimately, it doesn't address the actual problem. Who wants to throw around a ton of cash when you're not sure it's going to be worth anything, even if there's a discount on doing that activity? Just because they lowered the price on trading mud, doesn't mean a lot of people are going to be trading mud tomorrow

If the goal is to get through the slowdown with the least amount of damage as possible, why not do it for a year? It's like being between jobs, drawing on a line of credit for 3-4 months and then paying it down once you get your next job 6 months later. I fail to see why it's bad to pull down the LOC and get a little more debt as opposed to not having enough to make payments and have your mortgage foreclose on you. When you are in the midst of a very bad economic time (which is what I think we will be in for the next 12-16 months), why not do everything you can to encourage investment during that time while also keeping spending under control?

We want as much money as possible available to both the private sector and stock market over the next 16 months. Raising taxes or not making investment more attractive will just make this dip even deeper. Is it worth that just to avoid adding $100-$200 billion in debt to a $10 trillion deficit?

I know 4-5 business that we directly work with who are projecting layoffs between 7 and 50 people because of stock price issues. If we can avoiding reaching that low point through "tricks" in the tax code for the next 16 months, I bet a ton of jobs will be saved. The frustrating piece for a lot of these guys is that they fully realize they will need to hire 75% of the people back in 2010 as the economy recovers. So, if we can just soften the stock price fall, a lot of these business might not do massive layoffs if they think they can survive the next 16 months.

If we instead raise taxes on "the rich" (ie, cap gains, payroll, rates), we will be encouraging even more people to pull out of the market and the layoffs could be worse. It's ironic that everyone wants to pay down the deficit as we enter a slowdown - that's a terrible idea. I think we should reign in spending a bit, but we should also encourage investment. Again, for another analogy, imagine you are a worker with a 60K a year job. Now, you have 10K saved in the bank and your job security is iffy. Does it make sense to take that 10K and pay off your car (but leave no savings)? That seems like what we want to do. Having some debt in a time of crisis with a lower payment seems like the right thing to do (as opposed to paying it down and having no money available if you lose your job).

[I. J. Reilly]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I bring it up again because I think it's related to the aforementioned "traitor" and "treason" shouts at the rallies. Seems to me to be a natural response to that kind of tactic by the Republicans. Sure, it may be a "bad apple" here and there doing the shouting, but when you're picking the apples...

bad apple = Steve Schmidt

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

More information about the FBI ACORN investigation and some numbers concerning the level of the fraud, which now extends to 10 key battleground states. It should be noted that this fraud could have a substantial impact on polling if it is found that the registered number of Democrats was inflated in these states, which would mean that polling weighting was incorrect. Obama needs to tread lightly and try to dance around this if possible. His $800K donation to ACORN could loom large if this investigation continues to expand. Worse yet, former associates of Michele Obama are reportedly defending the ACORN execs in an embezzlement scandal which could bring ACORN down.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...08358130652174

Is ACORN Stealing The Election?
By INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
Posted Wednesday, October 08, 2008 4:20 PM PT

Election Fraud: A radical group Barack Obama used to work for is committing voter-registration fraud in several states, ahead of the election. What does Obama know about this scam?

It's a legitimate question to raise now that the FBI has raided the offices of the nonprofit Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now in Nevada and North Carolina, two states where Obama and John McCain are running neck-and-neck. ACORN has registered bogus voters in both states.

The group's voter-registration fraud is rampant, and authorities plan a nationwide sweep of ACORN offices to collect records.

In Nevada, state officials say the fraudulent registrations included forms for the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys football team, including quarterback Tony Romo.

"Romo is not registered to vote in the state of Nevada," Secretary of State Ross Miller said, "and anybody trying to pose as Terrell Owens won't be able to cast a ballot on Nov. 4."

While those names will be flagged on Election Day, felonious voters may have better luck using other cutouts. Nevada, along with several other key battleground states, requires no ID to vote.

In North Carolina, where Obama has been running nonstop ads, ACORN has registered a record number of new voters, many of them suspicious. Statewide, Democrats are doing better than the GOP in new converts — even in traditionally Republican counties.

There have been 218,749 newly registered Democrats in North Carolina since January — more than five times the 38,337 new Republicans, state records show.

The numbers show a startlingly close political battle even in Republican-dominated Union County, with 4,233 new voters registering as Democrats and 4,362 as Republicans. In previous election years, new Republicans have outnumbered Democrats 2-to-1 in the fast-growing Charlotte-area county.

In Missouri, one ACORN registrant named Monica Rays showed up on no less than eight forms, all bearing the same signature.

Suspicious election officials sent letters to some 5,000 ACORN registrants in St. Louis, asking the letter recipients to contact them.

Fewer than 40 reponded.

In Kansas City, 15,000 registrations have been questioned, and last year four ACORN employees were indicted for fraud.

In addition, ACORN officials have also been indicted in Wisconsin and Colorado. Investigations against others are active in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.

ACORN has also been registering convicted felons — including inmates — in Florida and other battleground states. ACORN boasts registering a record 1.5 million new voters so far this election.

What does all this have to do with Obama, besides the fact that he'd be the beneficiary of most, if not all, of these new votes?

For starters, Obama paid ACORN, which has endorsed him for president, $800,000 to register new voters, payments his campaign failed to accurately report. (They were disguised in his FEC disclosure as payments to a front group called Citizen Services Inc. for "advance work.")

What's more, Obama worked as executive director of ACORN's voter-registration arm, Project Vote, in 1992. Joined by two other community organizers on Chicago's South Side, Obama conducted the voter-registration drive that helped elect Carol Moseley-Braun to the Senate that year.

The next year, 1993, Obama joined the civil-rights law firm Davis Miner Barnhill & Galland, where he sued the state of Illinois on behalf of ACORN to implement the federal "Motor Voter" law, which the GOP governor at the time refused to do. Then-Gov. Jim Edgar argued, presciently, that the Clinton law would invite voter fraud.

Obama downplays his ties to ACORN, and his campaign denies coordinating with ACORN to register voters.

Meantime, New Orleans-based ACORN maintains that it has no control over volunteers who are falsifying application forms, that they're like employees who steal from the store.

But the fraud is widespread and not isolated. It also turns out that some ACORN execs allegedly are involved in a $1 million embezzlement cover-up at their headquarters. Representing them in the case is none other than Michelle Obama's old law firm in Chicago.

ACORN's corruption is not just out in the field, as they claim. There's a pattern of corruption from the top down.

McCain would be wise to start preparing a challenge to voter registration rolls should he lose the race in a close contest. He'd be crazy not to contest the results in light of these events.

[LloydLungs]

Originally Posted by Galaril

lI haven't ever heard people shouting out ... "gangbang the alaska barbie"

I hate to interject after months of dispassionate lurking, but Sandra Bernhard did say almost exactly this (actually it was quite a bit worse).

[miked]

It's amusing that even the wife of a candidate is playing the negativity. It's not enough to have the VP go around calling a candidate a terrorist sympathizer, but the wife now has to go around talking about 1 troop funding bill and***this one makes me laugh***Obama running the dirtiest campaign in the history of the country. I guess she forgot that her husband was attacked as having illegitimate, interracial children just 8 years ago.

As to the say it to my face thing, let's get real. You aren't torn, you aren't surprised, and you are beyond silly for trying to extend it to foreign policy (especially for seemingly denying the current president doesn't do the same...bring it on anyone?). McCain is obviously scared as to how it will play out as he didn't say a peep about it in the debate, but has no problems sending out his surrogates to do the attacking. That's what Obama was saying. But feel free to continue your silliness.

[Butter]

McCain is clearly using the smears to get his base even more fired up, while being sketchy about bringing it up to a more wide-scale audience because it doesn't play well to independence.

With any luck, the moderator will ask a direct question to McCain about it in the final debate, and they can both have a nice discussion about it.

[Flasch186]

More information about McCain's buy the bad mortgages plan...


McCain changes homeowner plan - Yahoo! News

McCain changes homeowner plan

Mike Allen Thu Oct 9, 12:29 AM ET

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) made an overnight change in the homeowner bailout he proposed at Tuesday’s presidential debate, making it more generous to financial institutions and more costly for taxpayers.

McCain's staff says it was always meant that way.

When McCain sprang his surprise idea at the start of the debate in Nashville, his campaign posted details online of his American Homeownership Resurgence Plan, which would direct the government to buy up bad home mortgages, allowing strapped people to keep their property.

The document posted and e-mailed by the McCain campaign on Tuesday night says at the end of its first full paragraph: “Lenders in these cases must recognize the loss that they’ve already suffered.”

So the government would buy the mortgages at a discounted rate, reflecting the declining value of the mortgage paper.

But when McCain reissued the document on Wednesday, that sentence was missing, to the dismay of many conservatives.

That would mean the U.S. would pay face value for the troubled documents, which was the main reason Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) gave for opposing the plan.

A McCain campaign official explained the change: “That language was mistakenly included in the initial draft, and it’s been corrected. It doesn’t reflect the intentions of the initiative, which necessitated the correction and the removal of the sentence. A simple mistake.”

Obama Campaign Economic Policy Director Jason Furman said in the campaign statement opposing McCain's plan: "John McCain wants the government to massively overpay for mortgages in a plan that would guarantee taxpayers lose money and put them at risk of losing even more if home values don’t recover. The biggest beneficiaries of this plan will be the same financial institutions that got us into this mess, some of whom even committed fraud."

The McCain campaign estimates in both documents that the plan would cost about $300 billion.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

More information about the FBI ACORN investigation and some numbers concerning the level of the fraud, which now extends to 10 key battleground states. It should be noted that this fraud could have a substantial impact on polling if it is found that the registered number of Democrats was inflated in these states, which would mean that polling weighting was incorrect. Obama needs to tread lightly and try to dance around this if possible. His $800K donation to ACORN could loom large if this investigation continues to expand. Worse yet, former associates of Michele Obama are reportedly defending the ACORN execs in an embezzlement scandal which could bring ACORN down.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...08358130652174

I TRULY hope that if Obama has anything to do with this he cooperates fully with the investigation and we get to a truth filled conclusion in a timely manner....Im sure you feel the same way about the Troopergate investigation in Alaska. Let me go find the posts where you want the truth to come out in Troopergate and hope that Palin and whomever is subpoened cooperates...

yup nothing

[larrymcg421]

ACORN should be fully investigated no matter what. Still, the only thing I can see is that fraudulent applications were submitted by volunteers. That doesn't necessarily suggest ACORN is encouraging that. If they are, then they should be punished to the fullest extent of the law.

As for Nevada, ACORN officials stated they already identified faulty applications and notified Nevada officials about it. We'll see if the searches turn up anything else.

As for the "old law firm" link, you guys will need a better link than that for this story to hurt Obama. I mean, Scalia had two sons that both worked for law firms that represented Bush in the Bush v. Gore case.

[larrymcg421]

Speaking of Bush v. Gore, I thought this sounded pretty interesting. Georgetown University is hosting an event that create sa potential McCain-Obama SCOTUS case...

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

As for the "old law firm" link, you guys will need a better link than that for this story to hurt Obama. I mean, Scalia had two sons that both worked for law firms that represented Bush in the Bush v. Gore case.

The law firm link is with Michele Obama. Barack is most certainly connected to the story. The campaign donated $800K to ACORN. Not only that, but they failed to accurately report it before it was brought to their attention. That's a very direct connection.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

Im sure you feel the same way about the Troopergate investigation in Alaska. Let me go find the posts where you want the truth to come out in Troopergate and hope that Palin and whomever is subpoened cooperates...

yup nothing

I was shocked that you missed the Troopergate info out today, considering that it confirms Sarah Palin's story. In the questioning from a few months ago, they've found that Todd Palin was actually the one trying to get his brother fired and that Sarah Palin didn't know much about his efforts. He was irritated by the threats and harassment from a law enforcement officer of his family and wanted him fired. I certainly would have done the same thing in his position.

The documents also note that once Sarah Palin found out about his efforts, she basically told him to knock it off.

Palin's Husband Pushed to Get Trooper Fired, Documents Show - FOXNews.com Elections

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

The law firm link is with Michele Obama. Barack is most certainly connected to the story. The campaign donated $800K to ACORN. Not only that, but they failed to accurately report it before it was brought to their attention. That's a very direct connection.

I just meant that trying to connect it to Obama through Michelle's old law firm is probably not going to stick. As for the donation, my understanding is that it was reported, but reported as a different name. Either way, I don't think it will really hurt Obama unless the campaign knew ACORN was committing voter fraud, and that's even if it's proven that ACORN committed fraud in the first place.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

I just meant that trying to connect it to Obama through Michelle's old law firm is probably not going to stick. As for the donation, my understanding is that it was reported, but reported as a different name. Either way, I don't think it will really hurt Obama unless the campaign knew ACORN was committing voter fraud, and that's even if it's proven that ACORN committed fraud in the first place.

ACORN is heavily tied to the Democrat Party. Any assumption that fraud in that organization will not hurt their presidential candidate amounts to whistling past the graveyard. The embezzlement charges only bring further light to the situation.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I was shocked that you missed the Troopergate info out today, considering that it confirms Sarah Palin's story. In the questioning from a few months ago, they've found that Todd Palin was actually the one trying to get his brother fired and that Sarah Palin didn't know much about his efforts. He was irritated by the threats and harassment from a law enforcement officer of his family and wanted him fired. I certainly would have done the same thing in his position.

The documents also note that once Sarah Palin found out about his efforts, she basically told him to knock it off.

Palin's Husband Pushed to Get Trooper Fired, Documents Show - FOXNews.com Elections

You didnt answer my question in regards to your desire to have had those subpoenaed cooperate. My question to you stands? Did you want them to cooperate fully with the first investigation? Do you want them to cooperate with it?

hmm, strange you say that but I find this:

Palin's husband, Todd, said in a sworn affidavit released Wednesday night that he never pressured the state's public safety commissioner to fire Palin's former brother-in-law, a state trooper who had divorced the governor's sister.

and

Todd Palin said his complaints with Monegan centered more on his wife's inability to sometimes use the Department of Public Safety's King Air Turbo Prop plane to reach far-flung constituents in the large state. He and his wife discussed the problem, he said.
Don't Miss

* Read Todd Palin's response (PDF)
* Palin's husband will answer questions in firing probe
* Palin on the campaign trail

"It seemed like whenever Sarah needed this plane, it was unavailable," Palin said in the document.

Palin's husband testifies he never pressured official - CNN.com

and from your own link on Fox News:

Todd Palin said he never pressured anyone -- including his wife.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

You didnt answer my question in regards to your desire to have had those subpoenaed cooperate. My question to you stands? Did you want them to cooperate fully with the first investigation? Do you want them to cooperate with it?

1. Certainly. They should cooperate with the officials as fully as possible as long as their rights are respected in this matter.

2. I certainly think the questions that are in the documents are open to interpretation. They will likely be interpreted differently depending on whether the liberal or conservative media is writing the article. What both make perfectly clear is that Sarah Palin didn't have a whole lot of involvement and that it was Todd who was raising a fuss.

So, at worst, we have a 'first spouse' who dabbles in his more powerful spouse's affairs. Most Americans shouldn't have an issue with that. We had the same thing for 8 years when Clinton was President and no one minded.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

We had the same thing for 8 years when Clinton was President and no one minded.

HA!

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

ACORN is heavily tied to the Democrat Party. Any assumption that fraud in that organization will not hurt their presidential candidate amounts to whistling past the graveyard.

Much as I hate to, I'll have to disagree.

I don't believe it would matter even a tenth of a percentage point anywhere since the fraud in organizations like this isn't exactly a big secret to anyone with brainwaves. They are who we thought they were if you will.

If you're going to vote for Obama today (or any (D) nominee for Pres) I honestly can't imagine this would affect that decision one bit.

[Flasch186]

Originally Posted by MBBF

1. Certainly. They should cooperate with the officials as fully as possible as long as their rights are respected in this matter.

2. I certainly think the questions that are in the documents are open to interpretation. They will likely be interpreted differently depending on whether the liberal or conservative media is writing the article. What both make perfectly clear is that Sarah Palin didn't have a whole lot of involvement and that it was Todd who was raising a fuss.

So, at worst, we have a 'first spouse' who dabbles in his more powerful spouse's affairs. Most Americans shouldn't have an issue with that. We had the same thing for 8 years when Clinton was President and no one minded.

thats not 'at worst'. Hmmm, If I recall correctly Hillary was crucified for being too active in politics back then with the Health care issue and such.

and their rights have been respected as they were subpoenaed by the group assigned to investigate and the subpoenas have been upheld so Im glad to find youre as disgusted as I am that they haven't cooperated and others have also been told that they shouldnt cooperate too. Man, perhaps if you'd just say that when I do we wouldnt disagree on as much.

[SirFozzie]

Wow. Some were wondering if Virginia being in play was going to have a knock on effect in West Virginia.

the latest ARG poll in West Virginia has Obama up 50-42. I'm going to take that with a couple big grains of salt. I can't find the internals for it yet.. and the sheer numbers are just insane. West Virginia, up 8 for Obama?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Wow. Some were wondering if Virginia being in play was going to have a knock on effect in West Virginia.

the latest ARG poll in West Virginia has Obama up 50-42. I'm going to take that with a couple big grains of salt. I can't find the internals for it yet.. and the sheer numbers are just insane. West Virginia, up 8 for Obama?

That's not too crazy. West Virginia was a big Democratic state for a long time, and only recently switched to the GOP for mostly cultural reasons, which become less important in tough economic times. The poll is certainly surprising and ARG isn't the most accurate pollster, so we'll have to see if any other polls confirm it. There's been very little polling of West Virginia recently.

[Galaril]

I know I am partisan but quite a different tone from Mrs. Obama as opposed to Cindy.

Michelle Obama Pt. 1 | The Daily Show | Comedy Central
Michelle Obama Pt. 2 | The Daily Show | Comedy Central

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Why do leading Democrat congressman continue to make comments like this? Senator Reid implied in this interview that any association between Obama and Raines amounts to a form of racism.....

Breitbart.tv » Harry Reid Implies Radio Host is Racist for Tying Fannie Mae Exec to Obama

Honestly, I don't think there's any way in hell that Obama can be happy with any of these comments about perceived racism. Just shut up already and let Obama do his thing. He's been doing relatively well of late.

[larrymcg421]

Interesting take on the election by George Will:

WASHINGTON -- Time was, the Baltimore Orioles manager was Earl Weaver, a short, irascible, Napoleonic figure who, when cranky, as he frequently was, would shout at an umpire, "Are you going to get any better or is this it?" With, mercifully, only one debate to go, that is the question about John McCain's campaign.

In the closing days of his 10-year quest for the presidency, McCain finds it galling that Barack Obama is winning the first serious campaign he has ever run against a Republican. Before Tuesday night's uneventful event, gall was fueling what might be the McCain-Palin campaign's closing argument. It is less that Obama has bad ideas than that Obama is a bad person.

This, McCain and his female Sancho Panza say, is demonstrated by bad associations Obama had in Chicago, such as with William Ayers, the unrepentant terrorist. But the McCain-Palin charges have come just as the Obama campaign is benefiting from a mass mailing it is not paying for. Many millions of American households are gingerly opening envelopes containing reports of the third-quarter losses in their 401(k) and other retirement accounts -- telling each household its portion of the nearly $2 trillion that Americans' accounts have recently shed. In this context, the McCain-Palin campaign's attempt to get Americans to focus on Obama's Chicago associations seem surreal -- or, as a British politician once said about criticism he was receiving, "like being savaged by a dead sheep."

Recently Obama noted -- perhaps to torment and provoke conservatives -- that McCain's rhetoric about Wall Street's "greed" and "casino culture" amounted to "talking like Jesse Jackson." What fun: one African-American Chicago politician distancing himself from another African-American Chicago politician by associating McCain with him.

After their enjoyable 2006 congressional elections, Democrats eagerly anticipated that 2008 would provide a second election in which a chaotic Iraq would be at the center of voters' minds. Today they are glad that has not happened. The success of the surge in Iraq, for which McCain justly claims much credit, is one reason why foreign policy has receded to the margins of the electorate's mind, thereby diminishing the subject with which McCain is most comfortable and which is Obama's largest vulnerability.

Tuesday night, McCain, seeking traction in inhospitable economic terrain, said that the $700 billion -- perhaps it is $800 billion, or more; one loses track of this fast-moving target -- bailout plan is too small. He proposes several hundred billions more for his American Homeownership Resurgence -- you cannot have too many surges -- Plan. Under it, the government would buy mortgages that homeowners cannot -- or perhaps would just rather not -- pay, and replace them with cheaper ones. When he proposed this, conservatives participating in MSNBC's "dial group" wrenched their dials in a wrist-spraining spasm of disapproval.

Still, it may be politically prudent for McCain to throw caution, and billions, to the wind. Obama is competitive in so many states that President Bush carried in 2004 -- including Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico -- it is not eccentric to think he could win at least 350 of the 538 electoral votes.

If that seems startling, that is only because the 2000 and 2004 elections were won with 271 and 286, respectively. In the 25 elections 1900-1996, the winners averaged 402.6. This, even though the 1900 and 1904 elections -- before Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma attained statehood, and before the size of the House was fixed at 435 members in 1911 -- allocated only 447 and 476 electoral votes, respectively. The 12 elections from 1912 through 1956, before Hawaiian and Alaskan statehood, allocated only 531.

In the 25 twentieth-century elections, only three candidates won with fewer than 300 -- McKinley with 292 in 1900, Wilson with 277 in 1916 and Carter with 297 in 1976. President Harry Truman won 303 in 1948 even though Strom Thurmond's Dixiecrat candidacy won 39 that otherwise would have gone to Truman. After John Kennedy won in 1960 with just 303, the average winning total in the next nine elections, up to the 2000 cliffhanger, was 421.4.

In 1987, on the eve of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's third victory, the head of her Conservative Party told a visiting columnist: "Someday, Labour will win an election. Our job is to hold on until they are sane." Republicans, winners of seven of the last 10 presidential elections, had better hope they have held on long enough.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Wow. Some were wondering if Virginia being in play was going to have a knock on effect in West Virginia.

the latest ARG poll in West Virginia has Obama up 50-42. I'm going to take that with a couple big grains of salt. I can't find the internals for it yet.. and the sheer numbers are just insane. West Virginia, up 8 for Obama?

ARG has a pretty poor track record.

[SirFozzie]

That's why I'm taking it with HUGE grains of salt, but it could be interesting if WV is in play.

[timmynausea]

I always thought WV basically went red because Al Gore was perceived as so anti-coal. The cultural reasons would make sense as well. WV was so democratic that it was 1 of 10 states that went for Dukakis in 1988 and 1 of 7 to go for Carter in 1980.

[Kodos]

Cue dueling banjos music.

[Swaggs]

It is amusing to see how desperately some folks are grasping at straws, looking for a "guilt by association" Obama scandal to help McCain.

When the markets are losing 500 points a day and unemployment is at 6%+, tying candidates to fellow board members or organizations isn't going to get the job done (particularly since America already thinks/knows that all politicians are dirty). If there is a scandal that severely chips into Obama's numbers, it isn't going to be by playing guilt by association.

[Swaggs]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Wow. Some were wondering if Virginia being in play was going to have a knock on effect in West Virginia.

the latest ARG poll in West Virginia has Obama up 50-42. I'm going to take that with a couple big grains of salt. I can't find the internals for it yet.. and the sheer numbers are just insane. West Virginia, up 8 for Obama?

I had been cautiously optimistic that WV might be closer than anticipated, as I had heard that a poll done around the end of the Republican Convention had McCain only up by ~5%. I think war fatigure and, of course, the economy are trumping guns and bibles. I'd like to see another few polls before believing this ARG one, but I'm guessing WV is pretty close right now.

[SirFozzie]

The "Troopergate" report will come out tommorrow as planned after another attempt to shut it down was blocked (appeal to the Alaskan Supreme Court of the initial request by six Alaskan Republicans).

Supreme Court won't block Troopergate inquiry: Gov. Sarah Palin | adn.com

[Flasch186]

The sky is falling, the sky is falling....whoops, wrong thread.

Those Supreme Court justices, I am sure, are left leaning liberals hell bent on taking her down!!

[SirFozzie]

Interesting: obama's bought (at $2 million each) a half hour in primetime on 10/29 on both CBS and NBC so far (and is trying to reserve the same half hour on ABC and Fox, apparently).

Obama Buys Primetime Slots on CBS and NBC | The Trail | washingtonpost.com

This is a problem for McCain. He can't afford to spend 8 million dollars on countering the half hour politimercial (he only has $84 million for both September and October, by limiting himself to public financing)
. Six days before the election.. probably can't get anything closer, but I THINK it's close enough to the election for any message to stick..

[Flasch186]

wow, that's huge no matter what simply based on marketing alone. Perhaps Jon and I can put on an Elitexc card somewhere in there.

[Flasch186]

Welp there you go, case closed.

Palin pre-empts state report, clears self in probe - Yahoo! News

Palin pre-empts state report, clears self in probe

By MATT APUZZO, Associated Press Writer 36 minutes ago

ANCHORAGE, Alaska - Trying to head off a potentially embarrassing state ethics report on GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin, campaign officials released their own report Thursday that clears her of any wrongdoing.
PAID POLITICAL ADVERTISEMENT

Sen. John McCain's running mate is the subject of a legislative investigation into whether she abused her power as governor by firing her public safety commissioner. The commissioner, Walter Monegan, says he was dismissed in July for resisting pressure from Palin's husband, Todd Palin, and numerous top aides to fire state trooper Mike Wooten, Palin's former brother-in-law.

Lawmakers are expected to release their own findings Friday. Campaign officials have yet to see that report — the result of an investigation that began before she was tapped as McCain's running mate — but said the investigation has falsely portrayed a legitimate policy dispute between a governor and her commissioner as something inappropriate.

"The following document will prove Walt Monegan's dismissal was a result of his insubordination and budgetary clashes with Governor Palin and her administration," campaign officials wrote. "Trooper Wooten is a separate issue."

Monegan said Thursday that he doesn't know what to expect from the legislative panel's own report.

"I just hope that the truth is figured out," Monegan told The Associated Press on Thursday. "That the governor did want me to fire him, and I chose to not. You just can't walk up to someone and say, 'I fire you.' He didn't do anything under my watch to result in termination."

Palin's critics say that shows she used her office to settle family affairs.

"When you're the governor, you leave your household hat at home and you become governor," said state Senate President Lyda Green, a Republican who has frequently clashed with Palin.

The campaign's report instead blames former campaign opponent, Andrew Halcro, who has a blog, of conspiring with Wooten to pin Monegan's dismissal on the family's dispute with Wooten. Three days after Monegan was fired, they say, Wooten told his ex-wife, Palin's sister, that: "You guys are going down. Get ready for the show."

Two days after that confrontation, they say, Halcro and Wooten met at a hotel bar in Anchorage for more than three hours — and that evening, Halcro posted the first accusations on his blog that Monegan had been fired because of a vendetta against Wooten by the Palin family.

"It is tragic that a false story hatched by a blogger after drinks with Trooper Wooten led the legislature to allocate over $100,000 of public money to be spent in what has become a politically driven investigation," the 21-page report concludes.

Although the report describes Wooten as a separate issue, the McCain campaign goes into great detail about the "rogue" trooper and his "long history of unstable and erratic behavior." The campaign describes allegations of violence, including threatening Palin's family and shooting his stepson with a stun gun.

The report also includes allegations that Wooten cheated the workers' compensation system. Todd Palin has said he had numerous conversations with government officials about why Wooten was allowed to stay on the job.

"The Palins make no apologies for wanting to protect their family and wanting to bring attention to the injustice of a violent trooper keeping his badge and abusing the workers' compensation system."

But Todd Palin said he never pressured anyone, including his wife.

The McCain campaign says the investigation has become "muddied with innuendo, rumor and partisan politics."

[larrymcg421]

Wow. What a horrible way to handle it. First, there's a Supreme Court appeal to try to prevent the report from coming out. Then she pre-empts the report with her own internal report that remarkably clears her. It really sounds like she's scared of what's about to be released.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Interesting: obama's bought (at $2 million each) a half hour in primetime on 10/29 on both CBS and NBC so far (and is trying to reserve the same half hour on ABC and Fox, apparently).

Obama Buys Primetime Slots on CBS and NBC | The Trail | washingtonpost.com

This is a problem for McCain. He can't afford to spend 8 million dollars on countering the half hour politimercial (he only has $84 million for both September and October, by limiting himself to public financing)
. Six days before the election.. probably can't get anything closer, but I THINK it's close enough to the election for any message to stick..

How does this play with the rules on neutrality/equal time? I remember there being a case where Cali channels showing Arnold movies "unfairly" gave him more time than his opponents. Is there anything along those lines in presidential elections?

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

How does this play with the rules on neutrality/equal time? I remember there being a case where Cali channels showing Arnold movies "unfairly" gave him more time than his opponents. Is there anything along those lines in presidential elections?

Well, that's more along the lines of free press for Arnold. This would be more like a political advertisment, just a much longer one than usual.

[stevew]

What happens if Obama can not produce a birth certificate and/or if he really was born overseas? I assume it's a formality right now that he will win.

Is that grounds for impeachment or something?

This was probably covered 3 pages ago or something, but I was just curious.

eh, nevermind, should have checked snopes.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by stevew

What happens if Obama can not produce a birth certificate and/or if he really was born overseas? I assume it's a formality right now that he will win.

Is that grounds for impeachment or something?

This was probably covered 3 pages ago or something, but I was just curious.

eh, nevermind, should have checked snopes.

lol if it had been true he never would have gotten this far. he's already had to produce his birth certificate

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Interesting take on the election by George Will:

I'm going to take this moment to say that while I often don't agree with his position I don't think there's one guy I respect and enjoy reading more than George Will. I'll guarantee every time he's going to make me think. I'm going to miss him when he retires.

[Axxon]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Cue dueling banjos music.

WV can only afford one banjo so they'll have to share.

[flere-imsaho]

Well, now we know why McCain pulled out of Michigan:

Just days after John McCain scaled back his campaign in Michigan, a new Rasmussen Reports survey of voters there shows Barack Obama with a 16-point lead on his Republican opponent.

Obama leads McCain 56% to 40% in the survey taken Wednesday night. A month ago, the Democrat was ahead by seven points, 51% to 44%.

[-apoc-]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

More information about the FBI ACORN investigation and some numbers concerning the level of the fraud, which now extends to 10 key battleground states. It should be noted that this fraud could have a substantial impact on polling if it is found that the registered number of Democrats was inflated in these states, which would mean that polling weighting was incorrect. Obama needs to tread lightly and try to dance around this if possible. His $800K donation to ACORN could loom large if this investigation continues to expand. Worse yet, former associates of Michele Obama are reportedly defending the ACORN execs in an embezzlement scandal which could bring ACORN down.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArti...08358130652174

A memo from ACORN itself taken from the Atlantic http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/...its_troops.php

Emphasis my own

To: Interested Parties
From: Bertha Lewis and Steve Kest
Date: October 9, 2008
Re: The Truth About ACORN's Voter Registration Drive

Election Day is less than a month away, and our efforts to make sure that low-income and minority voters have a voice and vote on November 4th are in full swing. Unfortunately, just as we've seen in previous election cycles, the more success we have in empowering these voters, the more attacks we have to fend off from partisan forces making unfounded accusations to disparage our work and help maintain the status quo of an unbalanced electorate. We want to take this opportunity to separate the facts of our successes from the falsehoods of our attackers.

On Monday, October 6, as voter registration deadlines passed in most states, ACORN completed the largest, most successful nonpartisan voter registration drive in history. In partnership with the nonpartisan organization Project Vote, we helped register over 1.3 million low-income, minority, and young voters in a total of 21 states. Highlights of this success include:

We collected over 151,000 registrations in Florida, 153,000 in Pennsylvania, 215,000 in Michigan, and nearly 250,000 in Ohio.

An estimated 60-70 percent of our applicants are people of color.

At least HALF of all are registrations are from young people between 18-29.

We are proud of this unprecedented success, and grateful to everyone who supported us in this massive effort, from our funders and partners to the literally thousands of hardworking individuals across the country who dedicated themselves to the cause and conducted the difficult work of registering 1.3 million Americans, one voter at a time.

And this work is far from over: now begins our effort mobilize these new voters around local and national issues, getting them to the polls and helping to channel their commitment and conviction into an ongoing movement for change in our communities.

As The Nation pointed out recently, ACORN's success in registering millions of low-income and minority voters has made it "something of a right-wing bogeyman." Though ACORN believes that the right to vote is not, and should never be, a partisan issue, attacks from groups threatened by our historic success continue to come, motivated by partisan politics and often perpetuated by the media without full investigation of the facts. As a result, there have been a few recent stories about investigations of former ACORN workers for turning in incomplete, erroneous, or fraudulent voter registration applications. Predictably, partisan forces have tried to use these isolated incidents to incite fear of the "bogeyman" of "widespread voter fraud." But we want to take this opportunity to set the record straight and tell you a few facts to show how these incidents really exemplify everything that ACORN is doing right:

Fact: ACORN has implemented the most sophisticated quality-control system in the voter engagement field, but in almost every state we are required to turn in ALL completed applications, even the ones we know to be problematic.

Fact: ACORN flags incomplete, problem, or suspicious cards when we turn them in, but these warnings are often ignored by election officials. Often these same officials then come back weeks or months later and accuse us of deliberately turning in phony cards.

Fact: Our canvassers are paid by the hour, not by the card, so there is NO incentive for them to falsify cards. ACORN has a zero-tolerance policy for deliberately falsifying registrations, and in the relatively rare cases where our internal quality controls have identified this happening we have fired the workers involved and turned them in to election officials and law-enforcement.

Fact: No charges have ever been brought against ACORN itself. Convictions against individual former ACORN workers have been accomplished with our full cooperation, using the evidence obtained through our quality control and verification processes.

Fact: Voter fraud by individuals is extremely rare, and incredibly difficult. There has never been a single proven case of anyone, anywhere, casting an illegal vote as a result of a phony voter registration. Even if someone wanted to influence the election this way, it would not work.

Fact: Most election officials have recognized ACORN's good work and praised our quality control systems. Even in the cities where election officials have complained about ACORN, the applications in question represent less than 1% of the thousands and thousands of registrations ACORN has collected.

Fact: Our accusers not only fail to provide any evidence, they fail to suggest a motive: there is virtually no chance anyone would be able to vote fraudulently, so there is no reason to deliberately submit phony registrations. ACORN is committed to ensuring that the greatest possible numbers of people are registered and allowed to vote, so there is also NO incentive to "disrupt the system" with phony cards.

Fact: Similar accusations were made, and attacks launched, against ACORN and other voter registration organizations in 2004 and 2006. These attacks were not only groundless, they have since been exposed as part of the U.S. Attorneygate scandal and revealed to be part of a systematic partisan agenda of voter suppression.

These are the facts, and the truth is that a relatively small group of political operatives are trying to orchestrate hysteria about "voter fraud" and manufacture public outrage that they can use to further suppress the votes of millions of low-income and minority Americans.

These tactics are nothing new, and history has shown that they will come to nothing. We'll continue to weather the storm, as we've done for years, and we'll continue to share the truth about our work and express pride about our accomplishments.
Most importantly, we want to assure you that this good work continues, unabated and undeterred. ACORN will not be intimidated, we will not be provoked, and in this important moment in history we will not allow anyone to distract us from these vital efforts to empower our constituencies and our communities to speak for themselves. If the partisan political machines are afraid of low-income and minority voters, they're going to have to do a lot better than coming after ACORN.

After all, there are now at least 1.3 million more of them, and they will not be silenced. They're taking an interest, and taking a stand, and they'll be taking their concerns to the voting booth in November.

And ACORN will be here, to make sure that the voices of these Americans are heard, on Election Day and for every day to come.

[JPhillips]

Awesome.

Palin's lawyer, Thomas Van Flein, tried to preemptively discredit the report, telling the ADN that it won't be comprehensive because Branchflower didn't interview Palin or her chief of staff, Mike Tibbles.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Interesting: obama's bought (at $2 million each) a half hour in primetime on 10/29 on both CBS and NBC so far (and is trying to reserve the same half hour on ABC and Fox, apparently).

Obama Buys Primetime Slots on CBS and NBC | The Trail | washingtonpost.com

This is a problem for McCain. He can't afford to spend 8 million dollars on countering the half hour politimercial (he only has $84 million for both September and October, by limiting himself to public financing)
. Six days before the election.. probably can't get anything closer, but I THINK it's close enough to the election for any message to stick..

It smacks too much of Perot though.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Awesome.

That's a lot of chutzpah, right there.

[Young Drachma]

Potomac Watch - WSJ.com

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Potomac Watch - WSJ.com

I got to the 2nd paragraph and stopped. They're obviously being intellectually dishonest with the "don't pay taxes" argument. The person writing that certainly knows it's not true, but admitting that wouldn't be convenient for his argument.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

That's a lot of chutzpah, right there.

Quite ironic too.