The Stock Market thread

[albionmoonlight]

Good job numbers this morning. Nice to see.

[Kodos]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Looks like we can expect a rough beginning to the day. Futures are down 3% or so.

Luckily, with so much winning already in our portfolios, a little drop won't hurt much!

[kingfc22]

Feels good to return to our roots of having a wannabe king rule over us.

If only America was built with equal branches of government with the ability to stop one man from destroying the well being of its population.

Well…maybe next time

[flere-imsaho]

Well, I had been considering retirement this year or next, but it seems unwise given the volatility, so I've moved out my horizon to 28 or 29 when I'm likely to have at least one kid through college.

[JPhillips]

GOP, including Trump, now settling into the idea that Trump wrecked the economy on purpose.

[Lathum]

There really is nothing they will hold him accountable for.

[Lathum]

Nintendo pausing presale of switch 2 because of tariffs. So much winning.

[GrantDawg]

Per Bluesky:
"Just in case anyone was curious, 16 of the 20 biggest single-day percentage losses in the history of the Dow Jones have occurred under republican presidents. Also, 13 of the 20 biggest single-day point losses occurred under trump. not just under republican presidents. under one fucking dude!"

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

GOP, including Trump, now settling into the idea that Trump wrecked the economy on purpose.

Yes, because that is what everyone voted for. Dems need to be hammering these tariffs which likely won't happen behind Schumer.

[albionmoonlight]

Regardless of politics, we should possibly evaluate the wisdom of putting really stupid people in charge of things.

Like let's not even worry about right wing or left wing. And let's not even worry about picking the smartest person. Just don't pick actively stupid people and put them in charge of things.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Yes, because that is what everyone voted for. Dems need to be hammering these tariffs which likely won't happen behind Schumer.

Feels like a missed opportunity to not have your party do a press conference announcing a bill that would end the tariffs. That juxtapose on TV with the markets tanking would be pretty strong. And it would get all Republicans members of Congress on the record for whether they support this or not.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Regardless of politics, we should possibly evaluate the wisdom of putting really stupid people in charge of things.

Like let's not even worry about right wing or left wing. And let's not even worry about picking the smartest person. Just don't pick actively stupid people and put them in charge of things.

The best description I have heard of Trump is that he is what a dumb person thinks a smart person looks like.

We need to just realize we are a nation of stupid, uninformed people who are going to vote emotionally. There is a reason why the GOP is doing all they can to destroy the education system in America.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Feels like a missed opportunity to not have your party do a press conference announcing a bill that would end the tariffs. That juxtapose on TV with the markets tanking would be pretty strong. And it would get all Republicans members of Congress on the record for whether they support this or not.

I believe a bipartisan bill was introduced yesterday saying no new tariffs without congressional approval and Johnson wouldn't even bring it to a vote.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Nintendo pausing presale of switch 2 because of tariffs. So much winning.

I guess that answers the question if Nintendo took into consideration the tariffs into their Switch 2 pricing, and that means they didn't.

Imagine it's the Switch 2 launch that takes down Trump. People will riot if this becomes a $599 base price because of the tariffs. Patriots, TO THE CAPITAL!!!

[Ghost Econ]

The Dow being under 39k is insane.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

The Dow being under 39k is insane.

Republicans continuing to defend it is insane...

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I believe a bipartisan bill was introduced yesterday saying no new tariffs without congressional approval and Johnson wouldn't even bring it to a vote.

Yeah, this is where Schumer, Jeffries, and anyone else gets in front of a podium and demands Johnson bring it to a vote. Go on every TV network saying we have a bill that will stop your 401K from tanking. Play some offense for a change.

[Ghost Econ]

S&P is below where it was this time last year. It was at an all-time high earlier this year.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I believe a bipartisan bill was introduced yesterday saying no new tariffs without congressional approval and Johnson wouldn't even bring it to a vote.

It was introduced in the Senate by Grassley and Cantwell. But you need veto proof majorities in both houses and I doubt that many Republicans would ever cross Trump. I suppose corporate donors could start applying pressure but I don't see anything happening. They just had a vote in the Senate to rescind the tariffs on Canada and only 4 Rs voted with the Ds.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

NewsMax becoming a meme stock is fitting since its a meme based entity

Down to $48 and tanking further. Fucking rubes getting robbed blind in this obvious pump and dump

[Arles]

The daily status of the S&P should never really bother you if you:
1. Never invest money you need within the next 6 months to a year
2. Dollar cost average over time as you generate more money to invest (index funds work great) and through your 401K/Roth.
3. Once you are close to retirement (5 years or less), drastically reduce your beta (high volatility stocks), risk level and stock percentage.

[RainMaker]

Agreed, but I think this is also more about it being a precursor to a looming recession. Markets tank, budgets tighten, jobs get cut, etc.


Also the dollar going into the gutter and massive inflation are not great either.

[Arles]

We had a 20% drop between August and Oct of 2022. By Feb, the S&P was back up to July levels. By the next July, the S&P was up 30% from the October lows.

Like 2022, this drop isn't because of the state of the economy, unemployment, bad company earnings or any other macro factor. It's because of uncertainty (inflation in 2022, tariffs in 2025). Those kind of dumps tend to be shorter term situations.

[JPhillips]

We still don't know what the real effects are going to be. How many countries respond with increasing tariffs? Do we then escalate? Is China able to recenter some of global trade?

Yes, things could return to normal pretty quickly, but a lot of things are in play that could cause lasting damage.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

We had a 20% drop between August and Oct of 2022. By Feb, the S&P was back up to July levels. By the next July, the S&P was up 30% from the October lows.

Like 2022, this drop isn't because of the state of the economy, unemployment, bad company earnings or any other macro factor. It's because of uncertainty (inflation in 2022, tariffs in 2025). Those kind of dumps tend to be shorter term situations.

I think the concern is that throughout history, tariffs like this always lead to a recession at best, and a depression at worst. Economies always struggle when you put massive taxes on citizens overnight.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Arles

The daily status of the S&P should never really bother you if you:
1. Never invest money you need within the next 6 months to a year
2. Dollar cost average over time as you generate more money to invest (index funds work great) and through your 401K/Roth.
3. Once you are close to retirement (5 years or less), drastically reduce your beta (high volatility stocks), risk level and stock percentage.

Pretty much true. And will add

4. Have an emergency fund of 6 months or so

However, although I believe tariffs have a role when strategically & selectively done, the reason why it does "really bother" me is ...

1) The arbitrary & punitive wholesale reciprocal tariffs which is unnecessarily causing this downturn
2) Very likely lingering effect (e.g. more than the "daily status of the S&P"), let's say 12 months of economic malaise as evident by layoff warnings and Atlanta Fed predicting a negative GDP for 1Q and likely 2Q
3) The opportunity cost of not making the historical average of annual gains of 8-10%

And a real possibility that Trump will get away with it because

4) He can always blame Jerome for not lowering rates
5) Fair possibility the economy and markets will adjust, adapt and trend upwards by Nov 2026 allowing Trump to say "see, I told you so, we now have a stronger foundation to grow"
6) My lack of confidence that the Dems can make good counter messaging and stay focused on how "Trump screwed up the economy" vs countless other stuff that voters don't care near as much about

[Atocep]

The difference is we're in Uncharted territory here. 2022 and other situations aren't comparable because we didn't have someone actively trying to tank the economy then. No one knows what's going to happen from here.



95% of people don't need to worry about the S&P but it can be a harbinger of things that will impact nearly everyone.

[dubb93]

Between COVID, Inflation, and now tariffs, most of America is broke at this point. Fuck the stock market. The real cost is going to come when people can’t make that mortgage and car payments. A lot of this country was already teetering on the verge. They needed a break and instead they got taxes.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by dubb93

Fuck the stock market. The real cost is going to come when people can’t make that mortgage and car payments.

I think this is it, focus on this messaging.

Stock markets, economy etc. all related and important. But arguing about all that is nebulous, high-level concepts to the regular voter.

The Dems need to continuously focus on "how does this impact me" in layman's terms.

[Arles]

I think the “smart” people (you can never count on these with Trump, to be fair) around Trump advising him at this point want to:
A. Bully the fed to reduce rates so that when the US refinances Trillions in debt later this year, it’s at a lower rate.
B. Use Tariffs to have other countries (primarily in Europe and Asia) to reduce their higher taxes/tariffs on US imports.

If this is their endgame, chances are these tariffs will be shorter term. It’s a bit like using a flame thrower to light a cigarette. It should work but is very risky (esp to the short term). If his plan is to have massive tariffs on Asia and Europe for the next four years, well then the worst case scenarios come into play. My hope is that Trump doesn’t really have any convictions so the moment the pain isn’t needed (or gets too much), he will bail.

[Atocep]

Considering this was done using chatgpt, I don't think there's much of a plan right now. It's see what happens, try to react accordingly, and then claim it was the plan all along.

If it goes bad they'll blame Biden.

[Edward64]

I've seen articles saying impact between $2,100 to $7,200 per household/family of 4. Don't know how they did the calculations or assumptions, but I'd lean towards the high end

In total, the average American household will pay $2,100 more per year for goods because of the tariffs, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimated.

ING Economics said this could cost $1,800 per person, or $7,200 for a family of four, though a $1,350 rise for every American is more "probable."

Originally Posted by Arles

My hope is that Trump doesn’t really have any convictions so the moment the pain isn’t needed (or gets too much), he will bail.

This is true. Question is how much is too much for a narcissistic billionaire

[Arles]

We will know by May/June either way. Until then, it will be a bumpy ride.

[JPhillips]

There's an open question as to how much, if any, of the tariffs will be in the budget bill to help cover the massive tax cuts they are planning. With 5 trillion or more in tax cuts coming that's going to jack inflation and make the deficit explode. The plan now, according to Graham, is to only pay for 1.5 trillion and pretend the rest are free.

[Danny]

Tariffs have a huge effect even if they are rescinded. It makes it impossible for businesses to plan properly and have a consistent process to how they do things. Youre going to see a lot more businesses go bankrupt due to the uncertainty and chaos.

[PilotMan]

I've lost more money on paper in the last two days then I'm likely to save from any tax benefits (which last time mine went up) for a number of years.



I'm sure the arsonist in chief is super excited to tell everyone how much money he's going to make after he sets a couple trillion on fire.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

I think the “smart” people (you can never count on these with Trump, to be fair) around Trump advising him at this point want to:
A. Bully the fed to reduce rates so that when the US refinances Trillions in debt later this year, it’s at a lower rate.
B. Use Tariffs to have other countries (primarily in Europe and Asia) to reduce their higher taxes/tariffs on US imports.

If this is their endgame, chances are these tariffs will be shorter term. It’s a bit like using a flame thrower to light a cigarette. It should work but is very risky (esp to the short term). If his plan is to have massive tariffs on Asia and Europe for the next four years, well then the worst case scenarios come into play. My hope is that Trump doesn’t really have any convictions so the moment the pain isn’t needed (or gets too much), he will bail.

I don't think there are smart people left in that administration. If there are, they are keeping their mouths quiet about this. The tariff stuff is high school level economics and anyone who has any experience in that field knows how dumb it is. We've known this for 100 years.

As for the plan:

A) If you want the Fed to reduce rates, putting in place a massive inflationary policy like tariffs is the worst thing you can do. All lowering rates would do is create hyperinflation.

B) These countries were not putting much tariffs on us. His numbers were completely made up. We have free trade with most countries outside of a few products that are protected.

[Arles]

The inflation will take a pretty long time to take hold from these. The market tanking, unemployment rising and a shift toward recession may force Powell's hand on cutting rates. If we have negative GDP in the next quarter, there's virtually no chance the Fed doesn't cut rates.

The tariffs for Mexico and Canada make no sense. Europe tends to protect a lot of its own industries with tariffs/VAT and these new tariffs may make them reconsider some of that. Smaller European countries will be hurt a lot more than the US if these stick. They don't have the liquidity to ride these out.

[PilotMan]

Dow closes down over 2000 for only the 4th time ever. So what we lost like what, 10 trillion in market value in 2 days?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Arles

The inflation will take a pretty long time to take hold from these. The market tanking, unemployment rising and a shift toward recession may force Powell's hand on cutting rates. If we have negative GDP in the next quarter, there's virtually no chance the Fed doesn't cut rates.

The tariffs for Mexico and Canada make no sense. Europe tends to protect a lot of its own industries with tariffs/VAT and these new tariffs may make them reconsider some of that. Smaller European countries will be hurt a lot more than the US if these stick. They don't have the liquidity to ride these out.

The tariffs take place right away is my understanding. It won't take a long time for inflation to take hold. Companies are not going to eat that tax themselves.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The tariffs take place right away is my understanding. It won't take a long time for inflation to take hold. Companies are not going to eat that tax themselves.

Board games crowdfunded are already asking people for more money for games to be delivered soon. Ive been following what all the board game companies are saying, there is huge panic in the industry. I think its likely half the companies (especially ones based in US or mostly dependant on the US are out of business in a year or two as the industry already has small margins.

[Danny]

And yes its right away. A smallish company kickstarter i got an update from is getting hit with a huge bill from a prooduct landing in the next week.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

The tariffs take place right away is my understanding. It won't take a long time for inflation to take hold. Companies are not going to eat that tax themselves.

Yup. There were already companies increasing prices in anticipation of the tariffs.


Edit: I meant yup

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Nope. There were already companies increasing prices in anticipation of the tariffs.

Yes not in particular not the additional 34% on china tariffs. Some were absorbing the 20% or part of it but they cant absorn any additional and its a total of 54% now from China.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Danny

Yes not in particular not the additional 34% on china tariffs. Some were absorbing the 20% or part of it but they cant absorn any additional and its a total of 54% now from China.

Note my edit. I was responding to the "it won't take long" and that made my statement confusing.

[Arles]

My point was I don't think a small uptick in inflation (2.8% now) is going to completely offset the market tanking and major recession fears. Rates have needed to be cut for months now. Morningstar this week said they expect three cuts in 2025 down to the 3.5% level.

[Arles]

For you traders, here's what Grok AI thinks for monday:

Today is April 4, 2025, and the stock market has experienced significant turbulence, with major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite recording sharp declines. Reports indicate the Dow dropped over 2,000 points (around 5%) and the S&P 500 fell nearly 6% today, driven by escalating trade tensions from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and recession fears. This follows a broader sell-off trend, with the S&P 500 down 4.8% year-to-date and the Nasdaq off 14% for 2025 so far. Given your request to predict which stock will rise the most in percentage terms on Monday, April 7, based on the history of major price drops, let’s analyze this step-by-step.

Historically, major single-day drops (e.g., 4% or more in the S&P 500) don’t always signal an immediate bottom, but they often set the stage for short-term rebounds as markets stabilize or oversold conditions trigger buying. Past examples—like the 4.8% drop on June 11, 2020, during COVID-19 fears—saw the S&P 500 rise 1.5% two trading days later after initial volatility. Similarly, post-2008 crash rebounds often featured sharp recoveries in oversold sectors. Today’s drop, tied to tariff uncertainty rather than a structural collapse, suggests a potential snapback on Monday, April 7, if no major negative catalysts emerge over the weekend (e.g., further tariff retaliation or weak economic data like the March jobs report due today).

Given the current context—tariffs hitting multinationals hardest (tech, apparel, retail)—stocks that were disproportionately sold off today but have strong fundamentals could lead a rebound. Sectors like technology (down 6.8% via XLK) and consumer discretionary (down 6% via XLY) took heavy hits, while defensive sectors (e.g., utilities, healthcare) likely outperformed relatively. Historical rebounds after tariff-driven drops (e.g., 2018 trade war fears) often favored beaten-down growth stocks with high short-term upside potential, especially if volatility subsides.

Based on today’s reported movers and historical patterns, NVIDIA (NVDA) stands out as a candidate for the biggest percentage gain on Monday. Here’s why:

Today’s Context: Tech stocks like NVIDIA were hammered, with reports suggesting a 5.6% pre-market drop today extending into a larger decline by close (likely 6-8% given Nasdaq’s 5.8% fall). This mirrors broader tech weakness amid tariff fears, as NVIDIA’s supply chain ties to Asia make it vulnerable to trade rhetoric.

Historical Rebound Potential: After major drops, NVIDIA has shown resilience. For instance, during the December 2018 sell-off (S&P 500 down 9% over a week), NVIDIA fell 17% but rebounded 6.7% in a single day when markets stabilized. Its high beta (volatility relative to the market) amplifies both drops and recoveries—post-2020 crash, it often gained 5-10% in rebound sessions.

Fundamentals: NVIDIA’s AI-driven growth (e.g., upcoming GPU Technology Conference buzz) gives it a narrative for buyers to step in if panic eases. Its forward P/E, while elevated, reflects strong earnings growth (analysts project 12-15% revenue growth in 2025 despite tariff noise).

Current Oversold State: With the Nasdaq nearing bear market territory (down 18% from its peak), NVIDIA’s outsized drop today likely overshot its intrinsic risk, setting up a mean-reversion trade.

Prediction: Assuming no catastrophic weekend news (e.g., China escalating tariffs beyond today’s 34% levy on U.S. goods), NVIDIA could rise 8-12% on Monday, April 7. This estimate draws from its historical single-day rebounds (e.g., 8.3% on March 19, 2020, after a 5% drop) and today’s likely oversold conditions. Comparatively, other candidates like Tesla (down 15.4% recently) or Nike (down 14.4% today) might rebound 5-8%, but NVIDIA’s volatility and AI momentum give it an edge for the highest percentage gain.

Caveats: This hinges on market sentiment shifting—e.g., if the VIX (fear index, up 39.6% to 30.02 today) cools off, or if the jobs report today surprises positively (unlikely given recession fears). If selling pressure persists (e.g., 90% downside breadth not yet hit), gains could be muted or delayed. Check pre-market trends Monday for confirmation.

So, based on today’s data and historical patterns after major drops, NVIDIA (NVDA) is my pick for the biggest percentage gainer on April 7, potentially up 10% if conditions align.

[SirFozzie]

$8 trillion off the stock market since Trump took office.

[RainMaker]

We're putting 34% taxes on imported goods from our biggest trading partners. That is going to be much more than a "small uptick in inflation". Lowering the rates would only benefit the ultra wealthy at that point.

[Danny]

An additional 34%, 54% total.