2016 March Madness thread

cartman · 03-17-2016, 10:15 AM

First game (at least for the non-First Four) tips off in an hour!

digamma · 03-17-2016, 10:29 AM

For those inclined to make things more interesting on a game by game basis, if you believe the power ratings there is a ton of value on underdogs in today's games.

In particular, Kentucky is giving 14.5 and the power ratings see that more as a 9 point game. Purdue, Duke and Virginia are also showing line versus power rating differentials of more than four points.

And Yale is an interesting money line play. Those who have followed my Ivy League thread know I really like this Yale team in spite of not liking Yale. But the ML is currently greater than +200 which would signify about a 30-35% chance of winning. Most of the power numbers show them with a 40+% chance of winning.

cartman · 03-17-2016, 11:13 AM

538 has a live, interactive bracket that will continually update in-game win probabilities.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...s-predictions/

bhlloy · 03-17-2016, 11:30 AM

Way too early, but Duke looks weirdly uninterested to me so far. Could be a recipe for an upset

Suicane75 · 03-17-2016, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by digamma

For those inclined to make things more interesting on a game by game basis, if you believe the power ratings there is a ton of value on underdogs in today's games.

In particular, Kentucky is giving 14.5 and the power ratings see that more as a 9 point game. Purdue, Duke and Virginia are also showing line versus power rating differentials of more than four points.

And Yale is an interesting money line play. Those who have followed my Ivy League thread know I really like this Yale team in spite of not liking Yale. But the ML is currently greater than +200 which would signify about a 30-35% chance of winning. Most of the power numbers show them with a 40+% chance of winning.

I actually think this is gonna be one of the more chalky years. At least in the first two rounds.

bob · 03-17-2016, 11:47 AM

I hate Duke.

That is all...

Butter · 03-17-2016, 11:52 AM

Wilmington just has to avoid giving up one of those 10 point spurts where Allen or Ingram go crazy and they can hang in this.

bhlloy · 03-17-2016, 12:02 PM

Refs doing their best to keep Duke in this, some really ticky tack calls going one way only

Kodos · 03-17-2016, 12:16 PM

That's the Duke way.

B & B · 03-17-2016, 12:20 PM

Cant watch the Puke game b/c the local CBS affiliate has decided everyone would rather watch this horrible St.Patricks day parade in Savannah.

Y'know. 3 1/2 hours of it.

WTF

JeeberD · 03-17-2016, 12:41 PM

UNCW vs Duke | NCAA.com

Butter · 03-17-2016, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Wilmington just has to avoid giving up one of those 10 point spurts where Allen or Ingram go crazy and they can hang in this.

Or Plumlee apparently.

Thomkal · 03-17-2016, 01:35 PM

well I got one of my picks right at least

all three other of my early picks are losing right now though...

Thomkal · 03-17-2016, 01:38 PM

knew I should have gone with Butler.

spleen1015 · 03-17-2016, 01:47 PM

That's why you go with 8 different brackets. You're always right.

murrayyyyy · 03-17-2016, 02:50 PM

I think I went blind turning it over to the Baylor game.

digamma · 03-17-2016, 02:53 PM

Yale has looked great so far, but I'm worried about the second half. The pace is considerably faster than they normally play (they are 316th in the country in possession length) and they are not very deep.

Kodos · 03-17-2016, 03:00 PM

Still, nice to see Yale ahead at the half.

bhlloy · 03-17-2016, 03:59 PM

Yale Baylor is the reason the tourney is so great. It's been a fun first day so far

digamma · 03-17-2016, 04:00 PM

If James Jones can keep stealing minutes and get Sherrod and Sears back in for crunch time, they can hold on.

Young Drachma · 03-17-2016, 04:03 PM

Yale's Justin Sears led my HS to back to back Group 4 state titles 3/4 years ago.

Vince, Pt. II · 03-17-2016, 04:31 PM

bhlloy · 03-17-2016, 04:33 PM

Awesome!

cartman · 03-17-2016, 04:33 PM

That wasn't the 5/12 upset I picked

Vince, Pt. II · 03-17-2016, 04:35 PM

I actually did, mostly because of my FBCB league and digamma's posts about the Ivy this year.

digamma · 03-17-2016, 04:41 PM

So, Yale played Duke earlier this season in Durham and hung with them for a half (38-36 at the break). Brandon Sherrod and Justin Sears got into foul trouble in that game too, and Sherrod fouled out. Things got away from Yale in the second half. I think Duke probably has too much on the outside for Yale, but it should be a fun game. (I still hate their fans (maybe Kodos, excluded).)

bhlloy · 03-17-2016, 05:54 PM

Wow, what a shot

Butter · 03-17-2016, 05:54 PM

Little Rock!

murrayyyyy · 03-17-2016, 05:54 PM

UALR teasing me since I had them in the sweet 16.

Butter · 03-17-2016, 06:07 PM

Do we have to review every out of bounds play? That one was clear.

murrayyyyy · 03-17-2016, 06:09 PM

I know it would take huge balls but why not foul Purdue again and lose on your terms.

murrayyyyy · 03-17-2016, 06:12 PM

I swear if I lose this game with +8...

cartman · 03-17-2016, 06:28 PM

That was the 5/12 I picked

JonInMiddleGA · 03-17-2016, 06:28 PM

Thanks for exactly nothing Purdue.

Vince, Pt. II · 03-17-2016, 06:29 PM

Definitely did not pick that one

JonInMiddleGA · 03-17-2016, 06:33 PM

I almost didn't even do a bracket this year, only did one last night because I've been doing one for close to forty years without fail.

Losing an E8 pick before we even get to the night games? Maybe it's time I just stop.

Suicane75 · 03-17-2016, 06:34 PM

I'm at the point where I'm like, "well, I still got all my final four teams". At least as I have some rooting interest, bracket wise, for next thu-fri games, I'm fine. All that being said, Fuck Purdue, and Fuck Baylor.

Young Drachma · 03-17-2016, 07:09 PM

I stopped doing brackets four or 5 years ago. It was a lot easier not to care about rooting interest and with the forum games we have here, it allows me to enjoy the games semi-low key without having to really care all that much like with brackets. It's kind of a relief.

Butter · 03-17-2016, 07:15 PM

Is this like a no hitter? If we talk about what's going on in Raleigh, do we jinx it?

Marmel · 03-17-2016, 07:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Butter_of_69

Is this like a no hitter? If we talk about what's going on in Raleigh, do we jinx it?

Shhh.

molson · 03-17-2016, 07:25 PM

Now you've done it.

Butter · 03-17-2016, 08:12 PM

Dammit.

Peregrine · 03-17-2016, 08:50 PM

The Yale-Duke matchup is shaping up to possibly be a battle between schools with the highest combined tuition ever!

Solecismic · 03-17-2016, 08:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Peregrine

The Yale-Duke matchup is shaping up to possibly be a battle between schools with the highest combined tuition ever!

Teams will go into the bonus at 7 fouls, double-bonus at 10 fouls, and triple-bonus at 10 fouls and 3 microaggressions.

hoopsguy · 03-17-2016, 10:14 PM

So Wichita State is just dismantling Arizona. I'm sure some folks picked the Shockers to win, but this isn't competitive right now. 49-29, 12:50 to play.

Eaglesfan27 · 03-17-2016, 10:24 PM

USC - Providence has been an entertaining game so far.

Eaglesfan27 · 03-17-2016, 11:02 PM

Ugh. USC had so many opportunities to finish this game and failed to do it.

LastWhiteSoxFanStanding · 03-18-2016, 12:11 AM

The inbounds play that Providence ran to win the game is the same one that I run with my 8th graders

GoldenEagle · 03-18-2016, 01:14 AM

Anyone got any picks for tommorow? I am in Vegas. Did okay today following the advice in this thread. Chickened out on the Yale ML but did have them plus 6.

Vince, Pt. II · 03-18-2016, 01:18 AM

I am entirely chalk tomorrow (counting VCU as a chalk pick since they're favored to win).

03-17-2016, 11:13 AM	#3
cartman Death Herald Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas	538 has a live, interactive bracket that will continually update in-game win probabilities. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...s-predictions/ __________________ Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint

03-17-2016, 11:52 AM	#7
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	Wilmington just has to avoid giving up one of those 10 point spurts where Allen or Ingram go crazy and they can hang in this. __________________ My listening habits

03-17-2016, 12:16 PM	#9
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	That's the Duke way. __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

03-17-2016, 12:20 PM	#10
B & B College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2001 Location: A sports era long ago when everything didnt require a Nike logo	Cant watch the Puke game b/c the local CBS affiliate has decided everyone would rather watch this horrible St.Patricks day parade in Savannah. Y'know. 3 1/2 hours of it. WTF __________________ Nobody cares about Kyle Orton because he's black. -PT

03-17-2016, 12:41 PM	#11
JeeberD General Manager Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: The Town of Flower Mound	UNCW vs Duke \| NCAA.com __________________ UTEP Miners!!! I solemnly swear to never cheer for TO

03-17-2016, 10:29 AM	#2
digamma Torchbearer Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: On Lake Harriet	For those inclined to make things more interesting on a game by game basis, if you believe the power ratings there is a ton of value on underdogs in today's games. In particular, Kentucky is giving 14.5 and the power ratings see that more as a 9 point game. Purdue, Duke and Virginia are also showing line versus power rating differentials of more than four points. And Yale is an interesting money line play. Those who have followed my Ivy League thread know I really like this Yale team in spite of not liking Yale. But the ML is currently greater than +200 which would signify about a 30-35% chance of winning. Most of the power numbers show them with a 40+% chance of winning.

03-17-2016, 11:30 AM	#4
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Way too early, but Duke looks weirdly uninterested to me so far. Could be a recipe for an upset

03-17-2016, 11:47 AM	#6
bob College Starter Join Date: Oct 2004	I hate Duke. That is all...

03-17-2016, 12:02 PM	#8
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Refs doing their best to keep Duke in this, some really ticky tack calls going one way only

03-17-2016, 01:35 PM	#13
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	well I got one of my picks right at least all three other of my early picks are losing right now though...

03-17-2016, 01:38 PM	#14
Thomkal Head Coach Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Surfside Beach,SC USA	knew I should have gone with Butler.

03-17-2016, 01:47 PM	#15
spleen1015 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003	That's why you go with 8 different brackets. You're always right. __________________ Why choose failure when success is an option?

03-17-2016, 02:50 PM	#16
murrayyyyy College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Las Vegas	I think I went blind turning it over to the Baylor game.

03-17-2016, 02:53 PM	#17
digamma Torchbearer Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: On Lake Harriet	Yale has looked great so far, but I'm worried about the second half. The pace is considerably faster than they normally play (they are 316th in the country in possession length) and they are not very deep.

03-17-2016, 03:00 PM	#18
Kodos Resident Alien Join Date: Jun 2001	Still, nice to see Yale ahead at the half. __________________ Author of The Bill Gates Challenge, as well as other groundbreaking dynasties.

03-17-2016, 03:59 PM	#19
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Yale Baylor is the reason the tourney is so great. It's been a fun first day so far

03-17-2016, 04:00 PM	#20
digamma Torchbearer Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: On Lake Harriet	If James Jones can keep stealing minutes and get Sherrod and Sears back in for crunch time, they can hold on.

03-17-2016, 04:03 PM	#21
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	Yale's Justin Sears led my HS to back to back Group 4 state titles 3/4 years ago. Last edited by Young Drachma : 03-17-2016 at 04:05 PM.

03-17-2016, 04:31 PM	#22
Vince, Pt. II Pro Starter Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Somewhere More Familiar	Wow.

03-17-2016, 04:33 PM	#23
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Awesome!

03-17-2016, 04:33 PM	#24
cartman Death Herald Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas	That wasn't the 5/12 upset I picked __________________ Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint

03-17-2016, 04:35 PM	#25
Vince, Pt. II Pro Starter Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Somewhere More Familiar	I actually did, mostly because of my FBCB league and digamma's posts about the Ivy this year.

03-17-2016, 04:41 PM	#26
digamma Torchbearer Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: On Lake Harriet	So, Yale played Duke earlier this season in Durham and hung with them for a half (38-36 at the break). Brandon Sherrod and Justin Sears got into foul trouble in that game too, and Sherrod fouled out. Things got away from Yale in the second half. I think Duke probably has too much on the outside for Yale, but it should be a fun game. (I still hate their fans (maybe Kodos, excluded).)

03-17-2016, 05:54 PM	#27
bhlloy Coordinator Join Date: Nov 2003	Wow, what a shot

03-17-2016, 05:54 PM	#28
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	Little Rock! __________________ My listening habits

03-17-2016, 06:07 PM	#30
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	Do we have to review every out of bounds play? That one was clear. __________________ My listening habits

03-17-2016, 06:09 PM	#31
murrayyyyy College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Las Vegas	I know it would take huge balls but why not foul Purdue again and lose on your terms.

03-17-2016, 06:12 PM	#32
murrayyyyy College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: Las Vegas	I swear if I lose this game with +8...

03-17-2016, 06:28 PM	#33
cartman Death Herald Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Le stelle la notte sono grandi e luminose nel cuore profondo del Texas	That was the 5/12 I picked __________________ Thinkin' of a master plan 'Cuz ain't nuthin' but sweat inside my hand So I dig into my pocket, all my money is spent So I dig deeper but still comin' up with lint

03-17-2016, 06:28 PM	#34
JonInMiddleGA Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA	Thanks for exactly nothing Purdue. __________________ "I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis

03-17-2016, 06:29 PM	#35
Vince, Pt. II Pro Starter Join Date: Sep 2009 Location: Somewhere More Familiar	Definitely did not pick that one

03-17-2016, 06:33 PM	#36
JonInMiddleGA Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Behind Enemy Lines in Athens, GA	I almost didn't even do a bracket this year, only did one last night because I've been doing one for close to forty years without fail. Losing an E8 pick before we even get to the night games? Maybe it's time I just stop. __________________ "I lit another cigarette. Unless I specifically inform you to the contrary, I am always lighting another cigarette." - from a novel by Martin Amis Last edited by JonInMiddleGA : 03-17-2016 at 06:34 PM.

03-17-2016, 06:34 PM	#37
Suicane75 Coordinator Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: NJ	I'm at the point where I'm like, "well, I still got all my final four teams". At least as I have some rooting interest, bracket wise, for next thu-fri games, I'm fine. All that being said, Fuck Purdue, and Fuck Baylor.

03-17-2016, 07:09 PM	#38
Young Drachma Dark Cloud Join Date: Apr 2001	I stopped doing brackets four or 5 years ago. It was a lot easier not to care about rooting interest and with the forum games we have here, it allows me to enjoy the games semi-low key without having to really care all that much like with brackets. It's kind of a relief.

03-17-2016, 07:15 PM	#39
Butter Coordinator Join Date: Mar 2002 Location: Dayton, OH	Is this like a no hitter? If we talk about what's going on in Raleigh, do we jinx it? __________________ My listening habits