Regression

[Pandetta]

Does anyone know if regression handled the same way as last year's game?

I'm mostly referring to young, high end players like Trout regressing noticeably in the first few seasons - IE no one stays high for long. Older players like David Ortiz also decline into unplayability in their first seasons.


I'm not intending to complain about this behavior, I would just like to know if regression/progression is handled this way in the PS4 version.

Thanks, apologies if this has been covered, I could not find it when searching.

[mmorg]

Re: Regression

A lot of that had to do with Potential ratings being below their actual overall ratings. By having the potential rating editable this year we'll be able to fix the young guys by putting their potential at or above their overall rating to prevent a huge crash and burn during their age 27-29 seasons.

[Gagnon39]

Re: Regression

I'm even more interested about simulated stats years into franchise mode. In the past years they have been off and off bad. By year 5 or 6 it was not uncommon to see the worst hitting team in the Majors batting about .330. While the best pitching team had a team ERA of 5.80. These numbers need to be toned, way, way down.

[Frostcrest]

Re: Regression

I've done four 10+ year franchises so far (White Sox, Cubs, Astros and Pirates) and so far I've noticed the expected steep decline in the mid to late 30s. I haven't noticed a huge drop in the high rated players, like the above poster was asking.

I've noticed that the stars/up and comers (Sale, Stanton, McCutchen) kept going up until they were mid to high 90s. Sale peaked at a 98 for me, Stanton hit 95 in one and 92 in another, and McCutchen hit 95.

My question is due to late age regression:

Do players consistently regress across multiple franchises? In my Pirates franchise, McCutchen steeply started to fall around 31 years old. At 33 he had dropped 30 points.

If I get McCutchen to 31 again, will I expect an equally steep decline, or is it random from franchise to franchise, with some players dropping off incredibly fast, some regressing normally, and a rare few remaining highly rated into their late 30s?

[Sdrawkcab321]

Re: Regression

I've done four 10+ year franchises so far (White Sox, Cubs, Astros and Pirates) and so far I've noticed the expected steep decline in the mid to late 30s. I haven't noticed a huge drop in the high rated players, like the above poster was asking.

I've noticed that the stars/up and comers (Sale, Stanton, McCutchen) kept going up until they were mid to high 90s. Sale peaked at a 98 for me, Stanton hit 95 in one and 92 in another, and McCutchen hit 95.

My question is due to late age regression:

Do players consistently regress across multiple franchises? In my Pirates franchise, McCutchen steeply started to fall around 31 years old. At 33 he had dropped 30 points.

If I get McCutchen to 31 again, will I expect an equally steep decline, or is it random from franchise to franchise, with some players dropping off incredibly fast, some regressing normally, and a rare few remaining highly rated into their late 30s?

30 points? That's ridiculous. He's not an nfl running back. He should be hitting his prime by then. Unless he got hurt

[tessl]

Re: Regression

I've done four 10+ year franchises so far (White Sox, Cubs, Astros and Pirates) and so far I've noticed the expected steep decline in the mid to late 30s. I haven't noticed a huge drop in the high rated players, like the above poster was asking.

I've noticed that the stars/up and comers (Sale, Stanton, McCutchen) kept going up until they were mid to high 90s. Sale peaked at a 98 for me, Stanton hit 95 in one and 92 in another, and McCutchen hit 95.

My question is due to late age regression:

Do players consistently regress across multiple franchises? In my Pirates franchise, McCutchen steeply started to fall around 31 years old. At 33 he had dropped 30 points.

If I get McCutchen to 31 again, will I expect an equally steep decline, or is it random from franchise to franchise, with some players dropping off incredibly fast, some regressing normally, and a rare few remaining highly rated into their late 30s?

Were you training McCutchen when he dropped steeply?

[Frostcrest]

Re: Regression

I don't have an amazing attention span, so I play with training on "Auto", so he was training whatever the CPU trained him. Also, I let CPU deal with Injuries, so he may have been hurt as well.

My goal is 30/30 World Series, 1 team actually fully franchise managed (when OSFM rosters come out), and 1 team fully franchise managed as a rebuild.

My question isn't as much "Why did McCutchen decline so quickly?", but "Will the same players decline the same every time?" excluding regression due to injury.

[Frostcrest]

Re: Regression

My goal is 30/30 World Series, 1 team actually fully franchise managed (when OSFM rosters come out), and 1 team fully franchise managed as a rebuild.

Er, the purpose of those two sentences is that I play with CPU doing some of the stuff so that I can pump out franchises faster. This is just one of the 30.

[@legendm0de]

Re: Regression

By "decline" I'd rather see what that translates to in stats season by season, rather than a player "rating". This is why I'm opposed to numerical player ratings even though I know the bar was basically the same thing, numerical ratings should not be as important as they can be made out to be. Mccutchen for example, will probably average in the .280s in the future on a regular basis and probably lose a tick off of his speed in the next 5 years. Technically that should result in a decline of his rating from the awesome level it is now. If you factor an injury which is possibly what happened in frostcrest's franchise, then it's at least more likely that rating he gets will decline even more drastically.

However, I'd rather know what kind of production these players make when they are on the field. Is it possible for anyone to lift their season by season stat lines for some individual players?

[KMRblue1027]

Re: Regression

30 points? That's ridiculous. He's not an nfl running back. He should be hitting his prime by then. Unless he got hurt

Well actually if The Show was realistic players peak around 26ish not 30. They should start their decline much earlier than they actually do but much softer.

[Billy...a_kid]

Re: Regression

I do agree it is far too steep. I simmed one season, and Beckett dropped 10 pts on all stats. He is only 34. It just seems too steep and too severe, and should be older players then mid-30's.

I honestly think it needs to be an "adjustable" regression system (so you can decide, approximately, how severely it happens), or the whole system needs to be WAY toned down.

I like the overall idea, it is just far too severe as it is now.

[@legendm0de]

Re: Regression

I Hate to be redundant but does this drop result in Beckett having a 4.5 or something ERA the next season? Or having high BB or something especially noticeable in his decline year. Also could you tell us what Beckett's stat line and ERA were in the previous season to cause some of his decline?

[HozAndMoose]

Re: Regression

I think at the start of a franchise every players progression and regression rate should be randomized. And have regression start at 33-35. But have it to where the first year there is no regression. We pretty much know what a player is going to do this year anyway.

So player A get progression to his potential until 30. Once thirty hits he maintains that overall till he is 33 years old. He then starts regressing 2-3 points overall per season. If he was 90 overall then by the time he was 38 he would be down to 75-80 OVR.

Player B gets to progress until he is 27. But he gets to keep that overall until he is 35. Then starts regressing 1-2 points overall per season.

Player C gets to progress until he is 27. But only gets to stay at that OVR for 2 years and starts to regress at 29. By 35 he could be done.

Retirement would also be randomized. A player could have a certain percentage chance at retire based on age.

Player A has D potential. At he has a 15% chance to retire at 30, 20% chance at 31, 25% at 32 etc.

Player D has A potential. he has a 0% chance at 30-33. A 15% chance at 34, 20% at 35, keep going up 5% each year until 38 or 39 and then jump it to 50%.

Not perfect but it would provide a lot of difference in franchises. No one knows whats gonna happen to a player next year IRL.

[Frostcrest]

Re: Regression

By "decline" I'd rather see what that translates to in stats season by season, rather than a player "rating". This is why I'm opposed to numerical player ratings even though I know the bar was basically the same thing, numerical ratings should not be as important as they can be made out to be. Mccutchen for example, will probably average in the .280s in the future on a regular basis and probably lose a tick off of his speed in the next 5 years. Technically that should result in a decline of his rating from the awesome level it is now. If you factor an injury which is possibly what happened in frostcrest's franchise, then it's at least more likely that rating he gets will decline even more drastically.

However, I'd rather know what kind of production these players make when they are on the field. Is it possible for anyone to lift their season by season stat lines for some individual players?

Here are some stats from a later save, before he retired. Based on the AB (not shown) he did not get injured. The lowest AB is 529 in 2015 and the highest is 642 in 2021. At this point he is 36. I must have misread his Overall the first time, because he is a 78 right now, so his drop is ~17 points I think.

McCutchen Career Stats (2013-2022)
YEAR H HR RBI AVG
2022 143 22 70 .246
2021 170 29 95 .265
2020 148 23 76 .252
2019 166 33 89 .281
2018 165 34 116 .276
2017 161 25 68 .268
2016 181 29 87 .306
2015 153 23 71 .289
2014 168 30 90 .295
2013 185 21 84 .317

However, I still don't have an answer about the consistency of regression. Has someone noticed if it's constant across different franchises? If not, I may run a few franchises with the same player 5-10 times until I get an answer, then report back here.

[Knight165]

Re: Regression

Do you guys read the last chapter of a book before you start it as well?!

Play!

M.K.
Knight165