Chased pitches - runs per game

[tessl]

I've been doing some testing using manage mode, default sliders, umpires off.

I did not include extra inning games, only 9 inning games.

Through 100 games:

• Number of chased pitches per game 32

• Outs per game on chased pitches 14

• Hits per game on chased pitches 1

• Percentage of games in which a team was shut out 19%

• Percentage of games in which a team scored 1 run 36%

• Percentage of games in which a team scored on run or less 55%

People can draw their own conclusions but it is clear to me runs scored are down compared to previous versions and I strongly suspect the focus on the part of the devs to increase chased pitches are a contributing factor.

I realize why the change was made. People who control the pitcher were frustrated and complained because the CPU wasn't chasing pitches outside the strike zone. In manage mode all hitters are CPU hitters. Change one thing, it impacts something else.

Perhaps in mlbts 15 it will get tweaked in a more realistic direction. I don't expect it to be fixed in the upcoming patch.

[rjackson]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

Nomo's testing found that the batting average of balls in play has actually decreased. The severe lack of the CPU chasing any pitches the last couple of years was something that needed to be addressed. In the batter analysis tool with everything set to 'all', the percentage of "MISSED" should be 4-5% and I am right around that in my own play, difficulty level, and sliders. Thus, I think that BABIP is usually the culprit with the out of the box sliders.

[NDAlum]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

What is the definition of a chased pitch?

Half in half out the zone?
Completely out of the zone?

[Heroesandvillains]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

What is the definition of a chased pitch?

Half in half out the zone?
Completely out of the zone?

Also, what was the criteria for testing? Which teams, how were pitchers rotated?

And what is the MLB averages for these stats?

So many questions (I have many many more), but the OP is SO VAGUE that it's hard to take his impressions as anything other than that, opinion!

[Heroesandvillains]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

And why aren't any other stats shared?

It looks to me like this test was done to prove something rather than analyze everything and that in itself is a HORRIBLE way to implement any kind of scientific method.

This reeks of bias.

[NDAlum]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

I'm not going to label it as a bias but I will agree that there simply isn't enough information to suggest changing the game. I can't say I share the same view as the OP. I can't produce any hard data as it's all my perception from the games I've played.

I lead the MLB in walks given up with QC's...

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

Without having tracked this stat rigorously, I do glance at it occasionally when recording batted ball data for my sliders. I usually see chased pitches by the cpu (this is user vs cpu, not cpu vs cpu in my case) in the realm of 10-25 pitches per game. If I had to ballpark it, I'd say the mean would be in the mid/high teens per game, which supports what you are seeing if the 32 chased pitches are for both teams combined.

But even then, when you actually look at the pitch locations in the batter/pitcher analysis window, you can see that some of those chased pitches are right on the black...some are very close but were 2-strike pitches that you'd expect an MLB hitter to protect against.

I think it would add to your analysis if you could study 'horrible pitches chased' meaning how many chases are there on pitches way out of the zone? If that shows something different than MLB average data, you might have something.

[cardinalbird5]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

What teams? What pitchers? Is out of the zone or in the zone? What are the average K/9, break, velocity, contact, and plate vision ratings?

What difficulty was this on as well?

[tessl]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

To answer questions...

• This is manage mode. Difficulty doesn't matter.

• I combined several franchises, all on default sliders with umpires off. I have no issued with nomo and didn't mention him in my op but since someone else did, he used random umpires which raises questions about his results. Again, I used default sliders and accurate strike zones. Random strike zones to determine chased pitches would be the equivalent of driving a variety of Ford model vehicles to determine gas mileage and combining all the data into one number.

• Standard pitching rotations. Rosters were those for opening day live update for all 30 MLB teams.

• Chased pitches can be found in the pitcher analysis screen. Data was documented at the end of each game for both teams.

I don't know what percentage of games in MLB have one team scoring 1 or fewer runs but I'd bet my next retirement check it isn't 55%. I believe in 2013 6% of mlb games were shutouts, not 19%. It isn't just number of chased pitches per game, it is 1 hit per game on a chased pitch. 14 outs a game, 1 hit a game skews the game in the direction of low scores.

This has been my favorite game for years and gameplay was fantastic until this year. If a dev could tell me what sliders to adjust to make the game play like it did last year I'd be happy.

[Jr.]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

To answer questions...

• This is manage mode. Difficulty doesn't matter.

• I combined several franchises, all on default sliders with umpires off. I have no issued with nomo and didn't mention him in my op but since someone else did, he used random umpires which raises questions about his results. Again, I used default sliders and accurate strike zones. Random strike zones to determine chased pitches would be the equivalent of driving a variety of Ford model vehicles to determine gas mileage and combining all the data into one number.

• Standard pitching rotations. Rosters were those for opening day live update for all 30 MLB teams.

• Chased pitches can be found in the pitcher analysis screen. Data was documented at the end of each game for both teams.

I don't know what percentage of games in MLB have one team scoring 1 or fewer runs but I'd bet my next retirement check it isn't 55%. I believe in 2013 6% of mlb games were shutouts, not 19%. It isn't just number of chased pitches per game, it is 1 hit per game on a chased pitch. 14 outs a game, 1 hit a game skews the game in the direction of low scores.

This has been my favorite game for years and gameplay was fantastic until this year. If a dev could tell me what sliders to adjust to make the game play like it did last year I'd be happy.

I don't know about the pure number of chased pitches (I don't see very many by the CPU on HOF pitching), but I will agree that the quality of contact on pitches out of the zone needs to be adjusted.

You will see batters in real life every game hit the ball hard consistently on pitches out of the zone (easy to see when broadcasts put the strike zone up for you ala ESPN Sunday Night Baseball). This is not replicated very well at all in The Show, which is why I think hitting is so difficult for so many people. It's very hard for a human to tell when a pitch is going to be just out of the zone or on the corner, and being unable to make solid contact on those pitches, I believe, is a big cause for the lack of run production in the game (including only having a handful of players each year bat over .300 in franchise seasons).

[Heroesandvillains]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

If this is as detailed as you are going to get with your testing criteria and results then this topic is an absolute waste of time if veiled under the pretense that you have hard data.

A thread asking the community their opinion on chased pitches and run per game averages would have sufficed. But this thread is based on a pretense that you've actually run a test although you've presented no testing pattern or data for others to analyze.

Again, could you please share your data (what teams, what pitchers, how games were rotated, all of the data you collected and not just your conclusions on the data you collected, etc)?

[rjackson]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

Look for Nomo's in the vault or the last gen sliders forum (he had PS3 & 4 copies). Manage only mode sliders with a lot of testing and data collection. Check out the thread. Tessl, you will be happy.

[tessl]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

I don't know about the pure number of chased pitches (I don't see very many by the CPU on HOF pitching), but I will agree that the quality of contact on pitches out of the zone needs to be adjusted.

You will see batters in real life every game hit the ball hard consistently on pitches out of the zone (easy to see when broadcasts put the strike zone up for you ala ESPN Sunday Night Baseball). This is not replicated very well at all in The Show, which is why I think hitting is so difficult for so many people. It's very hard for a human to tell when a pitch is going to be just out of the zone or on the corner, and being unable to make solid contact on those pitches, I believe, is a big cause for the lack of run production in the game (including only having a handful of players each year bat over .300 in franchise seasons).

Manage mode. Difficulty is irrelevant.

[tessl]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

If this is as detailed as you are going to get with your testing criteria and results then this topic is an absolute waste of time if veiled under the pretense that you have hard data.

A thread asking the community their opinion on chased pitches and run per game averages would have sufficed. But this thread is based on a pretense that you've actually run a test although you've presented no testing pattern or data for others to analyze.

Again, could you please share your data (what teams, what pitchers, how games were rotated, all of the data you collected and not just your conclusions on the data you collected, etc)?

It would be a waste of time asking the community because I doubt anybody else had played 100 games in manage mode with default sliders and umpires off.

55% of the time a team scored 1 run or less. 19% of games were shutouts. That is hard data. If you doubt me, start a franchise using any team or teams you like. Put it on default sliders and umpires off. Play 100 games. Get back to me with your results.

I guarantee you no MLB in 2014 for the first 100 games of the season regardless of pitchers will have runs scored as pathetic as that.

[NDAlum]

Re: Chased pitches - runs per game

So basically this is a MOM issue, not an issue for people who play their games. The one guy who might have some insight is Knight as I believe he's also a MOM guy.

Hopefully they address it for you in a patch