Terrible Drafting logic

[KBLover]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

Just edit their ages, thats what I do. No one drafts 25 year olds. Hell, are there even 25 year olds in the draft?

Yeah, I'm going to have to remember to do this one the draftees hit team rosters - edit ages and some of their skills to keep them the same type of player but not quite as absolutely raw.

Some of these guys are so raw they have, literally, no chance of making it, regardless of potential.

[Paradingwolves]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

Just out of curiosity, what are the players like ahead of him at that position?? Could it be something like the MLB-level player is fairly young (say mid-20's) and is just hitting their stride (say ready to have a solid 6-8 year run)??

No, it was a pitcher. Even if that were true who drafts a guy who won't be MLB ready until their late 20s first overall? and what prospect is considered a can't miss blue chipper but isn't expected be ready for 8 years?

Now one thing that could save this is that the MLB ETA actually means when they will reach full potential. so if they have 99 potential they will reach it around 28-30 years old but will be a solid 80-90 in their mid twenties, but I don't know has anyone simmed far enough along to confirm this. I read MLB ETA as in when they will reach mid 70s low 80s and would be considered and everyday player.

[HozAndMoose]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

No, it was a pitcher. Even if that were true who drafts a guy who won't be MLB ready until their late 20s first overall? and what prospect is considered a can't miss blue chipper but isn't expected be ready for 8 years?

Now one thing that could save this is that the MLB ETA actually means when they will reach full potential. so if they have 99 potential they will reach it around 28-30 years old but will be a solid 80-90 in their mid twenties, but I don't know has anyone simmed far enough along to confirm this. I read MLB ETA as in when they will reach mid 70s low 80s and would be considered and everyday player.

If im not mistaken. You dont know for sure what the players OVR and Potential actually are until after you draft them. Just because you 100% scout someone doesnt mean what you see is what you get.

In my latest draft (2014) the CPU was pretty good.

Baltimore - probably the worst. No player over 73 potential, Projected 2027.

Boston - 18 year old SP with 82 potential, ready in 2017.

Yankees - 19 year old SP with 80 potential. Ready in 2021 (fairly bad)

Tampa Bay - 18 year old C with 88 potential, ready in 2016. 18 year old RF with 80 potential, ready in 2017. 19 year old CP with 90 potential. Ready in 2020.

Toronto - 19 year old 3B with 82 potential. Ready in 2020. 18 yearold SP with 78 potential. Ready in 2020.

White Sox - 20 year old SP with 94 potential. Ready in 2018.

Cleveland - 18 year old RP with 82 potential. Ready in 2020.

Detroit - 18 year old SP with 74 potential. ready in 2019

Kansas City (Me but CPU picked) - 18 year old 2B with 82 potential. Ready in 2020, 18 year old SP with 84 potential. Ready in 2016. 19 year old RP with 74 potential. Ready in 2017.

Toronto - 21 year old SP with 94 potential. Ready in 2017. 21 year old SS with 74 potential. Ready in 2015.

Angels just as bad as Baltimore. Best player is 21 with a 79 potential ready in 2020.

Oakland - 19 year old LF with 78 potential. Ready in 2020. 19 year old RF with 72 potential. Ready in 2015. 18 year old CP with 82 potential ready in 2019. 18 year old RP with 81 potential ready in 2019.

Seattle - 20 year old SS with 83 potential ready in 2019.

Texas - 20 year old LF with 89 potential ready in 2015.

Houston - 18 year old CP with 95 potential. Ready in 2020. 18 year old CF with 79 potential ready in 2020. 20 year old SP with 82 potential ready in 2018. 22 year old SP with 81 potential ready in 2018.

Atlanta - 21 year old LF with 72 potential. Ready in 2017.

Miami - 20 year old SP with 92 potential ready in 2018. 20 year old RF with 85 potential ready in 2015. 19 year old RP with 87 potential. Ready in 2019.

Washington bad - 22 year old SP with 88 potential. Ready in 2023.

Mets - 21 year old 3B with 76 potential. Ready in 2019.

Philly - 18 year old SP with 82 potential. Ready in 2019.

Cubs - 18 year old LF with 70 potential. Ready in 2018. Could be my DH right now.

Cincy bad - 21 year old C with 79 potential. Ready in 2021.

Milwaukee - 22 year old SP with 89 potential. Ready in 2018. 20 year old SP with 84 potential. Ready in 2020.

Pittsburgh - 18 year old RF with 89 potential. Ready in 2021

STL - 19 year old RF with 99 potential. Ready in 2019.

Arizona bad - 22 year old SP with 86 potential. Ready in 2023.

Colorado - 19 year old RF with 75 potential. Ready in 2015. (might trade for him). 22 year old SP with 70 potential. Ready in 2015.

Dodgers - 18 year old SS with 74 potential. Ready in 2018

San Diego bad - 22 year old 2B with 94 potential. Ready in 2020

San Fran - 18 year old CP with 76 potential. Ready in 2019

So out of 30 teams. 2-3 are pretty bad. 2-3 are bad. And another 2-3 are possibly bad. That doesnt take into account that a player may be up before that ETA. And some potentials will rise and fall. That drafting seems okay to me. If you get those same outcomes every year just with different teams. There is no issue.

[HozAndMoose]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

Of the 180 players taken in the 1st round of the 2005 draft to the 2010 draft. Only 25 have been all-stars. Now some of those guys didnt sign and signed in a different draft so that 180 can be lowered a bit.

Since 2000. 6 of the 11 1st overall picks have been all-stars.

Players taken in the 1st round since 2000 (includes supplemental)

17 players in the 2000 draft never played in the Majors.
18 players in the 2001 draft never played in the Majors.
14 players in the 2002 draft never played in the Majors.
10 player in the 2003 draft never played in the Majors.
8 players in the 2004 draft never played in the Majors.
11 players in the 2005 draft never played in the Majors.
12 players in the 2006 draft never played in the Majors.
25 players in the 2007 draft never played in the Majors. (tons of supplemental picks that year)
12 players in the 2008 draft have never played in the Majors yet.
18 players in the 2009 draft have never played in the Majors yet.

Should have just done regular first round. Didnt realize supplemental was included till i was over halfway done.

So between 200 and 2009. 145 of 454 (including supplemental) have never played a major league game. Thats almost 32% of picks.

5 top 10 picks in the 2000 draft never played a game in the majors.
3 top 10 picks in the 2001 draft never played a game in the majors.
2 top 10 picks in the 2002 draft never played a game in the majors.
3 top 10 picks in the 2003 draft never played a game in the majors.
2 top 10 picks in the 2004 draft never played a game in the majors. Including the #1 overall pick.
1 top 10 pick in the 2005 draft never played a game in the majors.
1 top 10 pick in the 2006 draft never played a game in the majors.
1 top 10 pick in the 2007 draft never played a game in the majors.
Every top 10 pick in the 2008 draft has played in the majors.
2 top 10 picks in the 2009 draft have yet to play in the majors.

So that has clearly gotten better over the years. But that just means they played in at least 1 game.

1st round picks to play less than 100 games.

6 players in the 2000 draft played in less than 100 games. With 2 of those playing in less than 10.
4 players in the 2001 draft played in less than 100 games. With 2 playing 26 or less.
4 players in the 2002 draft played in less than 100 games. With 3 playing in less than 50 games. 1 only played in 5.
2 players in the 2003 draft played in less than 100 games. Both played in less than 50.
9 players in the 2004 draft played in less than 100 games.
6 players in the 2005 draft played in less than 100 games.
7 players in the 2006 draft played in less than 100 games. 1 played in 101.
9 players in the 2007 draft played in less than 100 games.
9 players in the 2008 draft played in less than 100 games. #1 OVR pick played in just 5.

[sink4ever]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

I tried to draft for every team messing around, one team would have a player rated 67-91 with an ETA with 2018 and the next team would have the same player rated 44/52 ETA 2023. So I drafted best by their scout, but I still ended up with top picks not ready for MLB for years and some with worse ratings and overall than their scout showed.

How can we work around this?

Isn't that actually fairly realistic? Maybe it's a little more extreme than it should be, but I like the idea of first round busts and "gems" in later rounds.

[tessl]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

If im not mistaken. You dont know for sure what the players OVR and Potential actually are until after you draft them. Just because you 100% scout someone doesnt mean what you see is what you get.

In my latest draft (2014) the CPU was pretty good.

Baltimore - probably the worst. No player over 73 potential, Projected 2027.

Boston - 18 year old SP with 82 potential, ready in 2017.

Yankees - 19 year old SP with 80 potential. Ready in 2021 (fairly bad)

Tampa Bay - 18 year old C with 88 potential, ready in 2016. 18 year old RF with 80 potential, ready in 2017. 19 year old CP with 90 potential. Ready in 2020.

Toronto - 19 year old 3B with 82 potential. Ready in 2020. 18 yearold SP with 78 potential. Ready in 2020.

White Sox - 20 year old SP with 94 potential. Ready in 2018.

Cleveland - 18 year old RP with 82 potential. Ready in 2020.

Detroit - 18 year old SP with 74 potential. ready in 2019

Kansas City (Me but CPU picked) - 18 year old 2B with 82 potential. Ready in 2020, 18 year old SP with 84 potential. Ready in 2016. 19 year old RP with 74 potential. Ready in 2017.

Toronto - 21 year old SP with 94 potential. Ready in 2017. 21 year old SS with 74 potential. Ready in 2015.

Angels just as bad as Baltimore. Best player is 21 with a 79 potential ready in 2020.

Oakland - 19 year old LF with 78 potential. Ready in 2020. 19 year old RF with 72 potential. Ready in 2015. 18 year old CP with 82 potential ready in 2019. 18 year old RP with 81 potential ready in 2019.

Seattle - 20 year old SS with 83 potential ready in 2019.

Texas - 20 year old LF with 89 potential ready in 2015.

Houston - 18 year old CP with 95 potential. Ready in 2020. 18 year old CF with 79 potential ready in 2020. 20 year old SP with 82 potential ready in 2018. 22 year old SP with 81 potential ready in 2018.

Atlanta - 21 year old LF with 72 potential. Ready in 2017.

Miami - 20 year old SP with 92 potential ready in 2018. 20 year old RF with 85 potential ready in 2015. 19 year old RP with 87 potential. Ready in 2019.

Washington bad - 22 year old SP with 88 potential. Ready in 2023.

Mets - 21 year old 3B with 76 potential. Ready in 2019.

Philly - 18 year old SP with 82 potential. Ready in 2019.

Cubs - 18 year old LF with 70 potential. Ready in 2018. Could be my DH right now.

Cincy bad - 21 year old C with 79 potential. Ready in 2021.

Milwaukee - 22 year old SP with 89 potential. Ready in 2018. 20 year old SP with 84 potential. Ready in 2020.

Pittsburgh - 18 year old RF with 89 potential. Ready in 2021

STL - 19 year old RF with 99 potential. Ready in 2019.

Arizona bad - 22 year old SP with 86 potential. Ready in 2023.

Colorado - 19 year old RF with 75 potential. Ready in 2015. (might trade for him). 22 year old SP with 70 potential. Ready in 2015.

Dodgers - 18 year old SS with 74 potential. Ready in 2018

San Diego bad - 22 year old 2B with 94 potential. Ready in 2020

San Fran - 18 year old CP with 76 potential. Ready in 2019

So out of 30 teams. 2-3 are pretty bad. 2-3 are bad. And another 2-3 are possibly bad. That doesnt take into account that a player may be up before that ETA. And some potentials will rise and fall. That drafting seems okay to me. If you get those same outcomes every year just with different teams. There is no issue.

The "ready in" date is simply a projection, not written in stone.

I'm not a fan of the current scouting and draft system. I hired the best scouts I could find and the information I got on individual prospects was only somewhat accurate. My first draft pick had a durability which was 20 points away from his actual durability. The first overall CPU raft pick had a durability of 24.

One of the points listed as an improvement by the developers was more star players in the draft. I didn't see anybody remotely similar to Mike Trout or Jose Fernandez.

This aspect of the game needs work.

[HozAndMoose]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

The "ready in" date is simply a projection, not written in stone.

I'm not a fan of the current scouting and draft system. I hired the best scouts I could find and the information I got on individual prospects was only somewhat accurate. My first draft pick had a durability which was 20 points away from his actual durability. The first overall CPU raft pick had a durability of 24.

One of the points listed as an improvement by the developers was more star players in the draft. I didn't see anybody remotely similar to Mike Trout or Jose Fernandez.

This aspect of the game needs work.

Those guys dont come around every year. How many 20 year old pitchers post a 2.19 ERA in their first year while winning RoTY and finish 3rd in Cy Young? Before trout who was the last superstar hitter? Cabrera? Pujols? Griffey? Maybe im missing someone but i cant think of anyone else drafted in the last 10 years that is on Trouts level.

[NDAlum]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

My gripes with the draft:

#1 - They need to have all the people you scout in the draft pool. The randomness to it just doesn't make any sense. Technically it could be comparable to a HS or College guy not coming out but there would need to be an additional category such as "probability of entering draft" for each player.

#2 - Add the players college or country they are coming from. It would be awesome to have that extra depth in our franchise.

#3 - Durability needs to start at a higher clip. The players in the draft have still played baseball their entire lives, it's not like they are THAT out of shape.

#4 - Show us the player picture when we are scouting these guys. I'm sure there will be several repeats but it just would add to the immersion factor.

I haven't had quite the same issues as some. I don't mind the extended projections for players and quite honestly I feel like some exaggerate quite a bit. It's not unreasonable for it to take 4-5 years for a guy to make it to the bigs.

[tessl]

Re: Terrible Drafting logic

Those guys dont come around every year. How many 20 year old pitchers post a 2.19 ERA in their first year while winning RoTY and finish 3rd in Cy Young? Before trout who was the last superstar hitter? Cabrera? Pujols? Griffey? Maybe im missing someone but i cant think of anyone else drafted in the last 10 years that is on Trouts level.

The problem isn't limited to superstar 20 year old players, it is lack of prospects who will be stars or solid players prior to 25.

Trout, Sale, Harper, Stanton, Bumgarner, Harvey, Fernandez, Corbin, Heyward, Machado, Freeman, Wacha, Puig, Cole, Segura, etc.

I just finished the draft and had the second overall pick. I drafted a starting pitchers with bb/9, k/9, h/9 in the 40's. He is at least 4 years away from MLB and the was the best in the draft.