"starting to struggle" message

[tessl]

I don't understand/agree with what they have done with progression.

I have a 23 year old cpu generated pitcher, 74 potential. 6-7 record, 4.34 era, 1.27 whip, .242 BA against 88 hits and 33 walks with 62 strikeouts in 95 innings and I just got the "starting to struggle" message with the accompanying 3 point drop in potential from 74 to 71. Those aren't Cy Young numbers but I'll take them for a 23 year old. I'd call it no worse than average, certainly not struggling.

I had a young minor league prospect who was hitting .250 and he got the same thing. I've had other guys performing worse who don't get a drop in potential.

I've seen people argue progression hasn't been changed to random but it looks random to me.

[KBLover]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I wonder if it looked at his 6-7 and determined that? Or has he struggled lately? Never sure if it's looking at recent performance, season performance, monthly performance, etc. I would agree, a 4.30 from an average pitcher is not struggling at all, if it's looking at YTD performance - it's about what he should be doing (its in the low-90's ERA+ in real life, though I guess if the league ERA in your franchise is lower, that ERA would look worse by comparison.

Has he been on a downturn lately - like in the past few weeks/last month?

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I wonder if it looked at his 6-7 and determined that? Or has he struggled lately? Never sure if it's looking at recent performance, season performance, monthly performance, etc. I would agree, a 4.30 from an average pitcher is not struggling at all, if it's looking at YTD performance - it's about what he should be doing (its in the low-90's ERA+ in real life, though I guess if the league ERA in your franchise is lower, that ERA would look worse by comparison.

Has he been on a downturn lately - like in the past few weeks/last month?

He had two rough starts in the month but was solid other than those two starts. The thing is I have another starter, Eovaldi, who is 3-7 with a 4.76 era, 1.46 whip, fewer quality starts worse avg against and he hasn't dropped.

It may not be completely random but there must be an element of randomness involved. I don't understand it and certainly don't agree with it.

[KBLover]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

He had two rough starts in the month but was solid other than those two starts. The thing is I have another starter, Eovaldi, who is 3-7 with a 4.76 era, 1.46 whip, fewer quality starts worse avg against and he hasn't dropped.

It may not be completely random but there must be an element of randomness involved. I don't understand it and certainly don't agree with it.

Yeah, definitely randomness involved, some of my better performance players/prospects don't get a peep from the Farm Director but others do and likewise for the strugglers. At other times besides the 1st of the month, it's random as well when it decides to show up.

At least the changes are minor enough.

I also find it funny your Eovaldi also has a crappy W/L record (mine is 3-13, 4.40 or so ERA).

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

Yeah, definitely randomness involved, some of my better performance players/prospects don't get a peep from the Farm Director but others do and likewise for the strugglers. At other times besides the 1st of the month, it's random as well when it decides to show up.

At least the changes are minor enough.

I also find it funny your Eovaldi also has a crappy W/L record (mine is 3-13, 4.40 or so ERA).

My guess as to why the player declined is he had two bad starts in the month which caused his era to spike whereas other guys were consistently poor. My recommendation would be for long term success/failure to play a larger role than a couple of bad starts.

I saw Bob Gibson give up 5 home runs vs the Giants one time. His potential didn't decline because of a bad start, he was still Bob Gibson.

[KBLover]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

My guess as to why the player declined is he had two bad starts in the month which caused his era to spike whereas other guys were consistently poor. My recommendation would be for long term success/failure to play a larger role than a couple of bad starts.

I saw Bob Gibson give up 5 home runs vs the Giants one time. His potential didn't decline because of a bad start, he was still Bob Gibson.

Agreed - that would be much more realistic imo regarding how scouts actually evaluate guys as well. A prospect is given time to figure things out and such before starting to pull the ceiling in on him, even though it tends to happen more often that not. Established players - same thing. No one is going to start souring on Trout because of a slow April.

It takes more than one bad month (which for a SP might just be 4 appearances).

Maybe twice-a-year "re-rates". Once around the All-Star Break (say July 1) and once when the offseason begins (or whenever any "season flip" progression occurs - check the performance to that point, and set the chances accordingly).

[Jr.]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I had a 1B in AA last year that had a really good year. .270s AVG with 20 HR and 80+ RBI. His potential never raised (he was a 68 OVR, 68 POT guy I was experimenting with to see if it would raise by doing well in the minors) that season. Now in his 2nd season, in AAA, he's hitting around .220 with 3-4 HRs approaching the end of the first month. I just got a message that he's struggling, so his Potential will drop.

There is definitely randomness to it. Not a bad thing, at all, in my mind.

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I had a 1B in AA last year that had a really good year. .270s AVG with 20 HR and 80+ RBI. His potential never raised (he was a 68 OVR, 68 POT guy I was experimenting with to see if it would raise by doing well in the minors) that season. Now in his 2nd season, in AAA, he's hitting around .220 with 3-4 HRs approaching the end of the first month. I just got a message that he's struggling, so his Potential will drop.

There is definitely randomness to it. Not a bad thing, at all, in my mind.

I'm not a fan of a lot of randomness and if they are going to base it partly on performance I agree with KBLover it should be twice a season, not monthly. A pitcher can have one or two bad games and drop. It should be based on a larger body of work than one month.

[Jr.]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I'm not a fan of a lot of randomness and if they are going to base it partly on performance I agree with KBLover it should be twice a season, not monthly. A pitcher can have one or two bad games and drop. It should be based on a larger body of work than one month.

I've never seen a player's potential drop after a rough couple of weeks, but if the game is doing that, I agree that should be adjusted.

[Knight165]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

Is it his potential or his overall that is dropping?

M.K.
Knight165

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

Is it his potential or his overall that is dropping?

M.K.
Knight165

It is potential. My experience is "stock rising" raises potential 3 points, "starting to struggle" lowers potential 3 points.

My issue isn't with potential rising or falling, but with it being based on only one month. The player I reference in the op is a 23 year old rookie and now has an era of 4.19, whip 1.28, record of 6-7 and he has dropped 3 points from 74 to 71 in potential because during June he had two bad starts.

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I've never seen a player's potential drop after a rough couple of weeks, but if the game is doing that, I agree that should be adjusted.

It is monthly, not a couple weeks. Check your emails at the end of each month.

[KBLover]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

It is monthly, not a couple weeks. Check your emails at the end of each month.

It can happen before that as well. I got a note about a AA hitter doing poorly after a week into August.

The end of the month is when you get the big batch of reports, but it's not out of the question to see them at other times.

It is potential. My experience is "stock rising" raises potential 3 points, "starting to struggle" lowers potential 3 points.

My issue isn't with potential rising or falling, but with it being based on only one month. The player I reference in the op is a 23 year old rookie and now has an era of 4.19, whip 1.28, record of 6-7 and he has dropped 3 points from 74 to 71 in potential because during June he had two bad starts.

Also brings up the question: What does the game consider as "struggling" or "doing well"?

[Jr.]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

It is monthly, not a couple weeks. Check your emails at the end of each month.

That's what I thought. You mentioned a couple of games for a pitcher, which made me think you had seen it only after a couple of weeks.

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

It can happen before that as well. I got a note about a AA hitter doing poorly after a week into August.

The end of the month is when you get the big batch of reports, but it's not out of the question to see them at other times.




Also brings up the question: What does the game consider as "struggling" or "doing well"?

You are correct, I just saw that also in the middle of a month.

I guess I'll revert to my original post, I don't know what they have done to progression.