"starting to struggle" message

[Knight165]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

You are correct, I just saw that also in the middle of a month.

I guess I'll revert to my original post, I don't know what they have done to progression.

Do you mean besides better and more interesting?

M.K.
Knight165

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

Do you mean besides better and more interesting?

M.K.
Knight165

I'm not sure who would view this as better but there is an ancient Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times" so in that regard it could be interpreted as more interesting.

Want to hear an update? The pitcher I referenced in my original post is a generated player on the first live update roster, Anthony Hara. He just pitched a no hitter vs the Giants, the first no hitter I've seen in manage mode. It would have been a perfect game if not for an error on the second baseman.

He is a 23 year old rookie. For the season he is 7-7 with a 3.87 era, 1.18 whip - and his potential has declined because, due to changes in the AI I fail to comprehend, he is struggling.

[Knight165]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I'm not sure who would view this as better but there is an ancient Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times" so in that regard it could be interpreted as more interesting.

Want to hear an update? The pitcher I referenced in my original post is a generated player on the first live update roster, Anthony Hara. He just pitched a no hitter vs the Giants, the first no hitter I've seen in manage mode. It would have been a perfect game if not for an error on the second baseman.

He is a 23 year old rookie. For the season he is 7-7 with a 3.87 era, 1.18 whip - and his potential has declined because, due to changes in the AI I fail to comprehend, he is struggling.

I would.
....and you are someone who can't see the forest for the trees(since we're going to throw cheesy old sayings here and there).....
You should be happy for the fact that a player doesn't have to be a top rated pitcher to perform at a high level all the time(instead of focusing on a 3 point potential drop from a time when he was pitching not so hot....his #'s are still mediocre/above mediocre IMO.....that at 74 to 71 didn't even drop his potential letter!).
That certainly hasn't always been the case in history...and there are tons of TOP rated pitchers who haven't thrown a no-hitter.

Here's another one for you.
You don't have to like it...you just have to deal with it(or not)

M.K.
Knight165

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I would.
....and you are someone who can't see the forest for the trees(since we're going to throw cheesy old sayings here and there).....
You should be happy for the fact that a player doesn't have to be a top rated pitcher to perform at a high level all the time(instead of focusing on a 3 point potential drop from a time when he was pitching not so hot....his #'s are still mediocre/above mediocre IMO.....that at 74 to 71 didn't even drop his potential letter!).
That certainly hasn't always been the case in history...and there are tons of TOP rated pitchers who haven't thrown a no-hitter.

Here's another one for you.
You don't have to like it...you just have to deal with it(or not)

M.K.
Knight165

I don't understand how it is better to have this lack of realism in the game. I have several other pitchers who are performing worse than this guy and they haven't dropped.

Our brains work differently. I prefer less randomness and more realism. I guess some people simply find realism boring.

[tabarnes19_SDS]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I don't understand how it is better to have this lack of realism in the game. I have several other pitchers who are performing worse than this guy and they haven't dropped.

Our brains work differently. I prefer less randomness and more realism. I guess some people simply find realism boring.

Do all top prospects that struggle in the minors in real life have their "ceiling" drop? Do all minor league players who get on a tear go from the 200 ranked prospect to #1?

If you want to believe it or not there is randomness is real life potential and player development. Hamilton was almost out of baseball twice in 2 different farm systems to later become an all star.

I think there needs to be some randomness, and to be honest I would like to see some bigger swings. As a Yankee fan I can think of top draft picks that have been drafted number 1 overall and never get out of A ball. What would his potential be as number 1 pick and top pitcher in the draft?

[canes21]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

What exactly would realism be to you then? I understand how performance based progression isn't the most realistic form of it, yet is what is generally most common among sports games, but what exactly would be realistic? To me a realistic system is one that you are given an idea of a player's talents and he may or may not reach that potential, or he may even exceed it. That's how it is in real life. However, what should dictate the progression?

Obviously in real life I don't get better because I had a 3-4 game with 2 doubles and a triple. I get better through tons of BP, hitting of the tee, and just from pure experience. At the same time there are some guys I played with who went through the same exact routines as me and never got better and some even got worse, yet I was able to become better.

I think overall the game does a good job of having players reach their potentials while others are "busts' and others somehow find a way to decline at 24. It may base some of it off of game/season performances and that isn't exactly the most realistic, but at the same time, the overall system is acting realistic and that is what matters to me the most. I'm seeing guys who have A potential reach their potential and become every day starters. I'm seeing their teammates with A potential failing to progress and have minor league careers. I am seeing some guys I traded for with C potential actually rise to B potential and becoming good players and making my trade a steal in the later years.

To me that is realistic and I am happy with it. I mean Homer Bailey threw a couple good games last year, but he is still Homer Bailey. he didn't gain 3 MPH on his fastball after a no hitter or all of a sudden get the ability to pitch 20 more pitches per game. He is the same pitcher. So I think you are putting too much stock into just one month's progression. To me, the randomness is what is exciting and does make the system realistic. I think it is great you can find two AA pitchers who are the same age and have similar stats and you can follow them through the ranks and one may end up an MLB ace while the other struggles to become a team's 5th man. That's exactly how real life works and I love how the Show replicates it pretty well.

EDIT: Another thought that popped into my head. The overall rating doesn't also include the productivity of the player. It is the makeup of their physical skills and gives you an idea of what you should expect. There have been plenty of guys that have had average stuff in the MLB and have somehow just always made it work though and put up stats that they shouldn't have through their careers.

There have also been plenty of guys that just had every tool to become an 8 time all-star yet never put up good enough stats to be in the top 3 players on their own team. Baseball and sports in general have tons of randomness and that is what makes them exciting.

[KBLover]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

EDIT: Another thought that popped into my head. The overall rating doesn't also include the productivity of the player. It is the makeup of their physical skills and gives you an idea of what you should expect. There have been plenty of guys that have had average stuff in the MLB and have somehow just always made it work though and put up stats that they shouldn't have through their careers.

I was just looking at Tom Glavine's career when I saw he made it to Canton. Average BB/9, average K/9, just doesn't seem to be anything that "jumps off the page" and he's in the Hall.

I don't know what his ratings would look like in The Show now, but I don't think he'd have an 80 in them, except maybe H/9, given how the game's system works.

[KBLover]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

Do all top prospects that struggle in the minors in real life have their "ceiling" drop? Do all minor league players who get on a tear go from the 200 ranked prospect to #1?

If you want to believe it or not there is randomness is real life potential and player development. Hamilton was almost out of baseball twice in 2 different farm systems to later become an all star.

I think there needs to be some randomness, and to be honest I would like to see some bigger swings. As a Yankee fan I can think of top draft picks that have been drafted number 1 overall and never get out of A ball. What would his potential be as number 1 pick and top pitcher in the draft?

I think that randomness should be based on more than a month-to-month (or less) of performance though. Heck, even a few months isn't really a large sample (we've seen guys start slow and take off, and vice versa).

That's one of the big issues I have with the system. That and injuries don't matter. One of the biggest risks to prospects (especially pitchers) is injuries. It's one reason some teams try to be "careful" with younger arms, etc.

That's one thing that can really sidetrack development and/or a timetable/ETA on a prospect. Tyler Kolek just had some back problems in real life - who knows what that might do to him. Will it peel off some MPH from his killer fastball? Slow down his development? Will the Marlins cut back on his playing time (and thus, on-field experience)? Will he come out unscathed and continue his progress?

Injuries do not seem to be a factor in the game's development system. No risk/worry needed over them. If my Kolek goes out for the year, I just can't use him, promote him, etc. I don't have to worry about him losing velocity, becoming more injury prone, etc.

A 3-point drop by itself doesn't always change a grade, they also pile up, especially if you get those notices within the month as well. The game has a love affair with Michael Feliz in my franchise - went from B to A-/borderline mid-A - April through June.

I guess you could say his stock is just rising fast (and ignore how the game is actually determining this from 2+ good months) but that seems pretty strange.

Also brings up how performance is evaluated. Is it just looking at ERA and BA or other things like ERC, dERA, and OPS (or other advanced stats that the game already tracks)? Is it comparing to the average stats at the level or produced by similar ratings? For example, if my 71 OVR pitcher is doing far worse than other 70's OVR pitchers at AAA, then my pitcher is up for a possible drop next evaluation? Or if my pitcher has a 60 H/9 in AAA but is allowing a .365 BABIP and 13 H/9, is he considered as struggling and might drop?

[Jr.]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

Potential rating is editable. If it's really a big concern, just go in and set it back to what it was. Make adjustments based on what you feel is correct for your players.

There is no potential rating in real life. Guys aren't drafted with "B" potential. They are what they are. If their potential "raises" it's because they weren't scouted properly and they produced beyond what they were expected to, and vice versa.

I honestly feel as though this is one of the most accurate representations of an athlete's "potential" that I've seen in any video game I've played.

[tabarnes19_SDS]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I think that randomness should be based on more than a month-to-month (or less) of performance though. Heck, even a few months isn't really a large sample (we've seen guys start slow and take off, and vice versa).

That's one of the big issues I have with the system. That and injuries don't matter. One of the biggest risks to prospects (especially pitchers) is injuries. It's one reason some teams try to be "careful" with younger arms, etc.

That's one thing that can really sidetrack development and/or a timetable/ETA on a prospect. Tyler Kolek just had some back problems in real life - who knows what that might do to him. Will it peel off some MPH from his killer fastball? Slow down his development? Will the Marlins cut back on his playing time (and thus, on-field experience)? Will he come out unscathed and continue his progress?

Injuries do not seem to be a factor in the game's development system. No risk/worry needed over them. If my Kolek goes out for the year, I just can't use him, promote him, etc. I don't have to worry about him losing velocity, becoming more injury prone, etc.

A 3-point drop by itself doesn't always change a grade, they also pile up, especially if you get those notices within the month as well. The game has a love affair with Michael Feliz in my franchise - went from B to A-/borderline mid-A - April through June.

I guess you could say his stock is just rising fast (and ignore how the game is actually determining this from 2+ good months) but that seems pretty strange.

Also brings up how performance is evaluated. Is it just looking at ERA and BA or other things like ERC, dERA, and OPS (or other advanced stats that the game already tracks)? Is it comparing to the average stats at the level or produced by similar ratings? For example, if my 71 OVR pitcher is doing far worse than other 70's OVR pitchers at AAA, then my pitcher is up for a possible drop next evaluation? Or if my pitcher has a 60 H/9 in AAA but is allowing a .365 BABIP and 13 H/9, is he considered as struggling and might drop?

I agree that injuries should factor as well as promotion too quickly or stagnation at a level.

But in the grand scheme of things stats don't mean much as far as player development. BA and ERA do not always show the true story. Players can hit .300 facing the 5th starter and little bloopers. .

I don't know it to be true, but I would guess some of the emails and potential changes to be random.

[KBLover]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

There is no potential rating in real life. Guys aren't drafted with "B" potential. They are what they are. If their potential "raises" it's because they weren't scouted properly and they produced beyond what they were expected to, and vice versa.

Or maybe they improved (or declined, of course). For example, they got better with a secondary pitch - improved their discipline at the plate, etc.

That said, if we couldn't scout guys "completely" and have perfect knowledge of their abilities - that would be very interesting - a lot like having your team scouts in OOTP tell you what they think they see.

Projections can and do change, and not always because the earlier projections were wrong or players were scouted badly. It's trying to predict the future. You can evaluate everything right and still be wrong. When you don't have control of the outcome, doing everything right is still no guarantee of anything.

To me, what you describe isn't that there's no such thing as potential or no rating for it (I think that's what prospect projections are, potential "ratings" written in word form, just like there's words and there's the 20-80 scale), but the absolute knowledge we have is what's not the same. An option for a "fog of war" over ratings would be interesting.

[tessl]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

What exactly would realism be to you then? I understand how performance based progression isn't the most realistic form of it, yet is what is generally most common among sports games, but what exactly would be realistic? To me a realistic system is one that you are given an idea of a player's talents and he may or may not reach that potential, or he may even exceed it. That's how it is in real life. However, what should dictate the progression?

I'm glad you asked. I'll use my example, Anthony Hara a 23 year old rookie who began the season with a potential of 74. As of July 20 2014 he has a 7-7 record with an era of 3.87 and a whip of 1.18. He has dropped from 74 to 71.

In MLB as of July 20 2014 there was one rookie aged 23 or younger with 7 wins, Yordano Ventura. Ventura was 7-8 with a 3.59 era and 1.31 whip. He has been described as...

Yordano Ventura, baseball's next pitching phenom

...which would be an indication that level of performance for a 23 year old rookie is pretty solid. Only one rookie 23 year old in MLB has matched those numbers and he is described as a phenom.

Therefore to answer your question I would define realism as something resembling what happens in MLB. For a rookie 23 year old to begin at 74 potential and put up those numbers would indicate an increase in potential, not a decrease which is what happened to Hara.

The concept of realism being completely random increase or decrease makes no sense to me, but others obviously disagree.

[Knight165]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I'm glad you asked. I'll use my example, Anthony Hara a 23 year old rookie who began the season with a potential of 74. As of July 20 2014 he has a 7-7 record with an era of 3.87 and a whip of 1.18. He has dropped from 74 to 71.

In MLB as of July 20 2014 there was one rookie aged 23 or younger with 7 wins, Yordano Ventura. Ventura was 7-8 with a 3.59 era and 1.31 whip. He has been described as...

Yordano Ventura, baseball's next pitching phenom

...which would be an indication that level of performance for a 23 year old rookie is pretty solid. Only one rookie 23 year old in MLB has matched those numbers and he is described as a phenom.

Therefore to answer your question I would define realism as something resembling what happens in MLB. For a rookie 23 year old to begin at 74 potential and put up those numbers would indicate an increase in potential, not a decrease which is what happened to Hara.

The concept of realism being completely random increase or decrease makes no sense to me, but others obviously disagree.

Whaaaaat?
So you are saying that every rookie pitcher who goes 7-7 with a near 4 ERA should increase because one guy who is purported to be "the next phenom"(never heard that before about a player) happens to be mediocre in his inaugural season?
There has never been a highly touted pitcher put up those numbers and regress?...is that what you are saying?

Off the top of my head...I will present to you Steve Trout. I'm pretty sure he was a top 10 first round pick...had a good first season(full) and then dipped and never reached his potential.

M.K.
Knight165

[Jr.]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

I'm glad you asked. I'll use my example, Anthony Hara a 23 year old rookie who began the season with a potential of 74. As of July 20 2014 he has a 7-7 record with an era of 3.87 and a whip of 1.18. He has dropped from 74 to 71.

In MLB as of July 20 2014 there was one rookie aged 23 or younger with 7 wins, Yordano Ventura. Ventura was 7-8 with a 3.59 era and 1.31 whip. He has been described as...

Yordano Ventura, baseball's next pitching phenom

...which would be an indication that level of performance for a 23 year old rookie is pretty solid. Only one rookie 23 year old in MLB has matched those numbers and he is described as a phenom.

Therefore to answer your question I would define realism as something resembling what happens in MLB. For a rookie 23 year old to begin at 74 potential and put up those numbers would indicate an increase in potential, not a decrease which is what happened to Hara.

The concept of realism being completely random increase or decrease makes no sense to me, but others obviously disagree.

That article was written before the season started. It wasn't describing his current performance.

I would imagine after the rookie years that Jose Fernandez, Stephen Strasburg, Matt Harvey, etc. have put up, the opinion that Ventura is the next "phenom" is more rare.

[Knight165]

Re: "starting to struggle" message

...and you keep saying "completely random".
That is CERTAINLY not the case...yet you continue to say it.
There is a great deal of probability in rating=performance and also with progression. A GREAT deal.
There is SOME randomness....and for the life of me, I can't fathom how you don't think there is a random factor in everything.
No two fingerprints....no two snowflakes....even twins aren't exactly the same.
Do you ALWAYS feel the same?

Most of the time....there will be reasons for performance not meeting expectations...but sometimes there is just no definable reason.

I think it's ludicrous to deny that.

M.K.
Knight165