I know this has probably been explained before but I just don't understand why some players regress so rapidly at such a young age. For example, in every franchise I have done, Mike Trout has regressed almost completely by the time he is 30. He'll go from the mid to high 90's to low 70's in about 1-2 season after he hits 28-29 years old. Same thing happens to a ton of pitchers (Chris Sale to name one). Is there any work around to this or is it a bug?
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
There isn't a workaround nor is it a bug, sadly. The problem is in 2013 they changed the progression and regression systems because in the previous games, young guys took awhile to grow and people complained. And then they changed so progression was quicker, but now the regression is faster as well. -
Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
It's junky programming on the dev's part, or junky design at least. Basically, they are trying to represent real life where players begin to regress (slow down, lose bat speed, lose arm strength, etc.) after so many years in the league or as they get older. They took it to the extreme, though, and players definitely regress way, way, way too fast. Hopefully they fix that for this year's game. If a guy like Trout is an MVP at 28 years old, in real life, he would NOT regress so fast that he is a bench warmer at 30. But in the game, that's unfortunately how it works.Comment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
Thanks for the quick replies guys, its unfortunate that this wasn't something that could have easily been fixed. Hopefully its better in MLB 15.Comment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
Not a bug but messed up for sure. Once a player hits 31 or 32 you may as well go ahead and trade them. I have seen players fall from 90 to 65 in one year. Givers they were late 30s but that's still just a bit much.Comment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
I think a reasonable theory is that a player has x amount of years at his peak potential before he regresses, and there's a good chance that its a fixed number of years. Since Trout is already at his peak in the game, he experiences the plateau and eventual decline much faster than we anticipate he would in real life.
The problem with Trout and his "potential" in the game is that his actual "game" changed drastically last year and probably will continue to progress in the same direction (all-around --> pure slugger). Ignoring the home runs he actually regressed in every other statistical area, so I guess you could argue that he indeed has already hit his plateau... but obviously not in the way you are describing.
Also, who's to say Trout won't not suck in 5-6 years? It certainly isn't unheard of for star players to fall, although there's usually an explanation behind it. Maybe Trout's is that he got too big?
Nah, I'm in 2019 and Cano is still an 85 OVR. It definitely can happen to players in their late 30's though, just not to all of them.Last edited by seanjeezy; 01-26-2015, 04:36 PM.Bakin' soda, I got bakin' sodaComment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
It all depends on the roster you use. I use the Hybrid V3 roster and players don't regress as rapidly. For example Derek Jeter and Paul Konerko both progressed and continued to play a few more seasons. The only player I saw in this set (and I checked every single player on every single team) that declined rapidly was Benoit of the Padres. He regressed from an 84 to a 76. The following season he progressed to an 80 then in the 3rd year regressed to a 78 and retired. Jeter didn't regress until his age 42 season. He retired after his age 43 season. Konerko didn't decline until his age 40 season and retired at the age of 43.
I think someone mentioned a while back in the Show players ages 34-36 regression can go either way.Last edited by ShowTyme15; 01-26-2015, 06:26 PM.Comment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
This topic has been debated previously. Essentially, as with some other changes in mlbts 14, a small but vocal group wanted progression to be changed and they convinced the devs to change it.≡Comment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
Not just that, the old system was severely flawed in many ways so change was necessary IMO. While the newer system isn't perfect, it is miles ahead of the old one. My one complaint is that I completely stopped receiving potential changing emails after year 3, I don't know if that is intentional or a bug but it was/is certainly annoying.Bakin' soda, I got bakin' sodaComment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
ya maybe they can code in a certain age to start the regression like 34 or 35. Ultimately, I would love either a performance based progression/regression system or keep the potentialsystem and add a xp system based on their potential so that u can combat the regression a little.Comment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
I have 4-6 guys in that 34 or older group and they still hit fine. Yeah....some regress but that is part of the game. It may not be a perfect equation but it is what it is. Franchise mode would be boring if you could acquire an A potential then they'd be beasts until theyre 40 every time. I like the randomness.Comment
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
I still think that most people look at the exceptions instead of the rule when looking at regression and "real life" performance. Of course there are outliers, but that is not the norm.
If you look at it objectively with statistical evidence, baseball is a sport for younger players with skills and regression occurring much sooner than you may believe.
This is he average age of the major league rosters last year. The youngest average age was 26.5 and the oldest was 29..
Baseball prospectus has a great study showing that the peak age of players is 29 and there is a sharp decline at that point. With decline beginning at age 30 and really hitting bottom at around 35.
As Bill James states;
Good hitters stay around, weak hitters don't. Most players are declining by age 30; all players are declining by age 33. There are difference in rates of decline, but those differences are far less significant for the assessment of future value than are the differing levels of ability (James, 1982, p. 205).
I actually believe the Show does a good job representing regression. Of course there should be programmed in some outliers and the occasional person that doesn't completely tank, but with not allowing players to retire while in contract that allows some players to play later into their careers.
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Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?
I haven't played FIFA in a few years but the last time I played it their players had a hidden progression arc. Some would progress and peak early, some were late bloomers, some progressed and remained at a high level, others didn't progress.
I wonder if MLBTS handles that through the potential rating. My preference would be for the potential rating to indicate a player's ceiling but not his arc of progression/regression. The arc of a player's progression/regression should predictable based upon which model he is assigned when created but independent of the potential rating and unknown to the user.
Progression/regression would not be random other than the randomness of f which model the player gets when he is created.
Or, maybe they are already doing it that way. Only the devs know.≡Comment
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