Can someone please explain player regression to me?

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  • seanjeezy
    The Future
    • Aug 2009
    • 3347

    #31
    Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

    It looks like we all agree for the most part, and like Knight said I can't imagine them switching to a purely performance-based system... but specifically mentioning it in the fact sheet does nothing but increase my suspicion, especially when that's the only word we have at the moment


    Originally posted by tabarnes19
    stuff
    Just want to point out for Bruce there was an extensive article @ Fangraphs that he has been in steady decline since 2011. I'm not saying he can get any worse than 2014, but the chances of him getting back to 2010-2013 levels aren't very good. He fits the "old player skillset" to a tee:

    Young players with old-player skills (high K, BB and HR) - These players exhibit power at an early age with high number of walks and strikeouts. The criteria I used were hitters who are 25 years old or younger with more than 20 HRs, a K/PA greater than 15% and a BB/PA greater than 5% (73 total players including Joey Votto, Evan Longoria, Troy Tulowitzki).
    Last edited by seanjeezy; 02-03-2015, 05:57 PM.
    Bakin' soda, I got bakin' soda

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    • rjackson
      MVP
      • Apr 2005
      • 1661

      #32
      Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

      Sort of on topic, how did 2014 handle potential when simming far ahead? I never really tried it. What I mean is that if a player was a 95 potential and no e-mails came, did they always hit a 95 overall? I am curious because scouting seemed to show a cap making me think potential was more about how quickly they progressed rather than how far they progressed.

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      • seanjeezy
        The Future
        • Aug 2009
        • 3347

        #33
        Re: Can someone please explain player regression to me?

        Originally posted by rjackson
        Sort of on topic, how did 2014 handle potential when simming far ahead? I never really tried it. What I mean is that if a player was a 95 potential and no e-mails came, did they always hit a 95 overall? I am curious because scouting seemed to show a cap making me think potential was more about how quickly they progressed rather than how far they progressed.
        I made it to 2019 so here's my experience:

        Players created through OSFM progressed at a steady rate. If a player did not reach his potential by his late 20's then he never reached his potential.

        Drafted players progressed based on their ETA.

        I stopped receiving potential emails after year 3, I don't know if this is intentional or a bug.
        Bakin' soda, I got bakin' soda

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