Scripted Innings!

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  • Blzer
    Resident film pundit
    • Mar 2004
    • 42520

    #151
    Re: Scripted Innings!

    I personally have not felt the effects of a comeback code or scripted inning (though, like all sports real and virtual, I sometimes feel like when things "aren't my day" or "aren't going my way"), and I read developers coming in here saying what they're saying as well. Since The Show '09, they would be hard-pressed to come out and actually put in a hidden comeback code with all of the controversy of the option "being reversed" in years past. I don't think they would ever do such a thing.

    That said, I applaud and appreciate what azstdogg has put together. These are hard numbers. I really, really do feel like that the numbers could say 90% of runs coming from innings 7-9 over 10,000 half innings recorded though, and there would still be people saying that those don't at the very least look weird, much less say that there might be something suspicious about that. I'll admit those are very, very interesting numbers and I am glad for what he has done: taken on HustlinOwl's challenge in his own way that actually has some merit.

    However, if the developers say there is no "code" or "boost," I have to go by that. I will say there is one time when a developer once said something that was false (this was about 7 years ago now), but it doesn't happen very often. Then again, when I used to code things didn't always happen the way I intended it to either. Maybe there are unintentional effects, or maybe people try and pound the strike zone late in the game and screw things up, don't warm up their pitchers, see a bigger slew of sacrifices and pinch hitters, sandbag when they're far ahead, etc.

    If you're up to it azstdogg, what you should really do (if you still have the numbers, hopefully on a spread sheet) is do a t-test to calculate the effect size so we can determine whether these numbers are even statistically significant. They are eye-opening, but who knows if this is even something that people would actually... notice on their own? I don't know. Just a thought.

    Granted, this is for online play... a mode that I don't play. I don't really care either way, but I am glad somebody actually did something in a way to try and provide evidence for something that might be a wee bit more than just "all in your head." Those numbers are clearly not in somebody's head.
    Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60

    Comment

    • Woodweaver
      Developer
      • Apr 2006
      • 1145

      #152
      Re: Scripted Innings!

      Originally posted by P.A.D.
      If so, how do you explain azst's statistical data? It clearly shows some type of a boost for the trailing team. Simply saying that trailing teams play harder when they're trailing is not sufficient. Simply saying we're imagining it is not sufficient. Simply saying we tend to pitch poorly in the later innings is not sufficient.

      Saying that the cpu learns your tendencies and adapts would be sufficient if there was a clear pattern in our tendencies and if the pitcher was the same. A better explanation might be, "the cpu learns your tendencies regardless of pitcher and this is why they score more in the later innings." However that isn't realistic at all unless my starter and relievers have the exact same repertoire and real life tendencies.

      If comeback code doesn't exist and the trailing team doesn't get a boost, something is clearly wrong with the way the game manufactures late game rallies. Honestly, if this many people are claiming something is wrong, something might actually be wrong.


      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

      I cannot explain some numbers written in a BB message. I have no idea how the games were played, how the statistics were collected, what was the size of the sample, how the statistics were computed, and what if any controls were in place.

      The only things I know:

      1) There is no come back code or trailing bonus.
      2) Many viable explanations for the anecdotal evidence have been offered.
      3) Neither of the previous 2 facts are sufficient for you.

      I'm sorry I could not be of more help.

      Here is an interesting article on the subject (bare in mind that this is based on actual MLB player/manager skills/decisions):

      Did you know that teams score much more often in the 1st and 6th innings than in the 2nd and 9th innings? This post examines a few explanations for this phenomenon.
      Last edited by Woodweaver; 01-12-2016, 05:13 PM.
      "Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"

      Comment

      • HypoLuxa13
        MVP
        • Feb 2007
        • 1156

        #153
        Re: Scripted Innings!

        Originally posted by Woodweaver
        I cannot explain some numbers written in a BB message. I have no idea how the games were played, how the statistics were collected, what was the size of the sample, how the statistics were computed, and what if any controls were in place.

        The only things I know:

        1) There is no come back code or trailing bonus.
        2) Many viable explanations for the anecdotal evidence have been offered.
        3) Neither of the previous 2 facts are sufficient for you.
        As an amused observer of this thread, I have only one question at this point: What the heck is your avatar pic, a drunk turtle?

        Comment

        • bcruise
          Hall Of Fame
          • Mar 2004
          • 23274

          #154
          Re: Scripted Innings!

          Originally posted by HypoLuxa13
          As an amused observer of this thread, I have only one question at this point: What the heck is your avatar pic, a drunk turtle?

          It's an internet meme.

          Comment

          • HypoLuxa13
            MVP
            • Feb 2007
            • 1156

            #155
            Re: Scripted Innings!

            Originally posted by bcruise
            does not look like a frog, but oh well. :wink:

            Comment

            • azstdogg
              Rookie
              • Jun 2009
              • 100

              #156
              Re: Scripted Innings!

              Originally posted by Woodweaver
              I cannot explain some numbers written in a BB message. I have no idea how the games were played, how the statistics were collected, what was the size of the sample, how the statistics were computed, and what if any controls were in place.

              The only things I know:

              1) There is no come back code or trailing bonus.
              2) Many viable explanations for the anecdotal evidence have been offered.
              3) Neither of the previous 2 facts are sufficient for you.

              I'm sorry I could not be of more help.

              Here is an interesting article on the subject (bare in mind that this is based on actual MLB player/manager skills/decisions):

              http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ries-by-inning
              All data is from TheShowNation.com, ~400 online game box scores for games that went 9 innings (excluded games that ended early since later innings obviously didn't have an opportunity for scoring and the assumption was that an influence is happening towards the end of the game).

              I have no idea how the games were played but the data includes over 350 different users (400 with the data below) with obviously a heavy influence from the 7-8 users data I grabbed. Anyone can easily go through a user's game history and pull the same box score and sum scoring by inning to see the same data. For CardinalBird's data, he was almost always leading after the 6th, yet the trailing team still managed to see a spike in runs in the 7th. (In the 5 instances he was losing, in 4 games he scored in the 7th.) Did he suddenly forget how to pitch? Did his opponents all suddenly figure out how to hit and score in the 7th? Did he always leave his starter in too long or bring in a sub-par reliever? Do all trailing teams play the same way in later innings? Perhaps. But with this many difference play styles I'd imagine the data would even out more that it has.

              Here's another user's game history at random (54 online DD games):

              XanaxKushLeanTx
              Inn. | Trailing | Ahead
              1st | 4% | 12%
              2nd | 9% | 10%
              3rd | 9% | 17%
              4th | 12% | 15%
              5th | 3% | 10%
              6th | 8% | 16%
              7th | 22% | 3%
              8th | 18% | 10%
              9th | 16% | 7%

              If you are a game developer perhaps you have access to more data and you can easily grab a larger sample. Since I'm just copying and pasting box score data on TheShowNation.com, I'd imagine the data would be much quicker to grab for anyone who works there.

              While I don't believe there is an intentional comeback code inserted, as another user mentioned perhaps there is an unintentional influence going on. I have yet to pull a user's game data that does not suggest that for whatever reason, the Trailing team suddenly begins playing better in the final innings while the same is not true of the team that is winning. It is possible that I randomly grabbed user data that aligns this way and a larger sample of more users could even things out and be similar to MLB data. I also linked to that same article in an earlier post, and all else being equal, I'd expect The Show box scores to align with MLB data given how true to real the developers strive to make the game.

              Comment

              • nomo17k
                Permanently Banned
                • Feb 2011
                • 5735

                #157
                Re: Scripted Innings!

                Originally posted by Woodweaver
                ...

                Here is an interesting article on the subject (bare in mind that this is based on actual MLB player/manager skills/decisions):

                http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...ries-by-inning

                The cited graph from real MLB data is interesting.

                This is from CPU vs. CPU games of MLB 15, and I see roughly similar trend of run-scoring by inning:

                The Show CPU vs. CPU game stats: 2018,17,16,15,14,13,12,11

                Comment

                • azstdogg
                  Rookie
                  • Jun 2009
                  • 100

                  #158
                  Re: Scripted Innings!

                  DD games for nomo17k (52 9-inning games with one 10-inning game and 2 where it looked like a quit in the 9th):

                  Inn. | Trailing | Other
                  1st | 4% | 14%
                  2nd | 7% | 12%
                  3rd | 14% | 16%
                  4th | 13% | 15%
                  5th | 7% | 11%
                  6th | 6% | 13%
                  7th | 18% | 8%
                  8th | 15% | 9%
                  9th | 15% | 3%

                  The team trailing after 6 scored 48% of their runs in innings 7-9.

                  Comment

                  • saintjimbo1885
                    Rookie
                    • Nov 2013
                    • 378

                    #159
                    Re: Scripted Innings!

                    I've mentioned this before in past comeback code discussions and I will say it again..... I suspect all of this is linked to that old option we used to have in MLB 09!!

                    Back then we could switch comeback code on/off and the description tallies with what azstdogg is seeing with his stats - especially the part about bigger leads seeing a bigger rally.

                    I suppose the question is was this option taken out of our hands or did the developers come up with another way to even games out??
                    Attached Files
                    Last edited by saintjimbo1885; 01-13-2016, 05:38 AM.

                    Comment

                    • Blzer
                      Resident film pundit
                      • Mar 2004
                      • 42520

                      #160
                      Re: Scripted Innings!

                      Originally posted by nomo17k
                      The cited graph from real MLB data is interesting.

                      This is from CPU vs. CPU games of MLB 15, and I see roughly similar trend of run-scoring by inning:

                      Were these games simulated?

                      I can already say, simulation aside, that I feel there is a major, major different between playing/simulating a game out and playing... what's it called, Gamecast? That mode has given me wacky results that you'd never see in an actual game. I haven't played it in forever so I can't mention any real specifics, but what happened in there at times was daunting.

                      I can trust simulated games. I think it's playing the games that is being mentioned and brought up, even from your games (see below your post).
                      Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60

                      Comment

                      • Knight165
                        *ll St*r
                        • Feb 2003
                        • 24964

                        #161
                        Re: Scripted Innings!

                        Originally posted by Blzer
                        Were these games simulated?

                        I can already say, simulation aside, that I feel there is a major, major different between playing/simulating a game out and playing... what's it called, Gamecast? That mode has given me wacky results that you'd never see in an actual game. I haven't played it in forever so I can't mention any real specifics, but what happened in there at times was daunting.

                        I can trust simulated games. I think it's playing the games that is being mentioned and brought up, even from your games (see below your post).
                        He said CPU vs.CPU games.....which is what you are playing against in games.

                        M.K.
                        Knight165
                        All gave some. Some gave all. 343

                        Comment

                        • Blzer
                          Resident film pundit
                          • Mar 2004
                          • 42520

                          #162
                          Re: Scripted Innings!

                          Originally posted by Knight165
                          He said CPU vs.CPU games.....which is what you are playing against in games.

                          M.K.
                          Knight165
                          Sigh... I know, I just didn't know if CPU vs. CPU meant he is "watching these games be played out," or he is letting them get simulated.
                          Samsung PN60F8500 PDP / Anthem MRX 720 / Klipsch RC-62 II / Klipsch RF-82 II (x2) / Insignia NS-B2111 (x2) / SVS PC13-Ultra / SVS SB-2000 / Sony MDR-7506 Professional / Audio-Technica ATH-R70x / Sony PS3 & PS4 / DirecTV HR44-500 / DarbeeVision DVP-5000 / Panamax M5400-PM / Elgato HD60

                          Comment

                          • Knight165
                            *ll St*r
                            • Feb 2003
                            • 24964

                            #163
                            Re: Scripted Innings!

                            Originally posted by Blzer
                            Sigh... I know, I just didn't know if CPU vs. CPU meant he is "watching these games be played out," or he is letting them get simulated.
                            Don't fret...

                            CPU vs. CPU is watching...

                            Gamecast has user input.

                            M.K.
                            Knight165
                            All gave some. Some gave all. 343

                            Comment

                            • Blzer
                              Resident film pundit
                              • Mar 2004
                              • 42520

                              #164
                              Re: Scripted Innings!

                              Originally posted by Knight165
                              Don't fret...

                              CPU vs. CPU is watching...

                              Gamecast has user input.

                              M.K.
                              Knight165
                              What about checking the box score of simulated games though, no Gamecast?

                              I think I now know why you said what you said earlier. I wasn't likening simulated games to a Gamecast, I was saying that if "coding may change between watching a game versus Gamecast," then the same might have been true for simulating games as well (but perhaps in a different fashion).

                              I forget what game it was, maybe Interplay back in the day... but I had fun once editing one team to max abilities and weakening every other team just because. If I let a game play out on its own CPU vs. CPU, the games were always blowouts. They just had to be. When they were simulated, sure there were blowouts... but then there were close games, and there were also defeats. Made me question what was going on underneath the hood if while you watch the other games you'd see zero chance of something like that happening. It was basically like HOF MLB guys versus Little Leaguers on the big diamond.

                              "A watched pot never boils." I seem to have the same luck during fantasy football lol. Only if I'm watching the game does it seem like my players are going off, and then when I'm not watching them literally nothing happens. Placebo on that one, but the other ones might have something different happen.
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                              Comment

                              • Will I Am
                                Pro
                                • Nov 2013
                                • 931

                                #165
                                Re: Scripted Innings!

                                Can't go by cpu vs cpu. There would have to be a human selected for this boost or penalty to show up as I'm sure the game can tell the difference between who is or isn't playing.

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