Scripted Innings!

[Sip_16]

Re: Scripted Innings!

I bet the Texas Rangers felt like they had two scripted innings in game six of the 2011 World Series.

or 2015 ALDS 7th inning, but that was scripted in more my favour lol

[Woodweaver]

Re: Scripted Innings!

Sigh...

http://youtu.be/OtSgycsIh0s

[HustlinOwl]

Re: Scripted Innings!

IDK, some more gameplay right now http://www.twitch.tv/Hustlin0wl

Adam Duvall walk-off in Extras!!!

http://www.twitch.tv/hustlin0wl/v/33848029

[dmslapped]

Re: Scripted Innings!

That....sounds like the Wrigley Field bug - a 100% occurrence if the ball is hit into the right spot in the stands vs the CPU. Is that where this happened?

Example (but with a RF):

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Gbgj_LwrTSw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

It's not scripting. It's a flat-out bug that was identified by the developers as being un-patchable this year. There is a way around it though - after seeing it a few times you'll know when it's coming (it definitely doesn't happen on every foul ball, just ones in a certain location), and when it does pause and switch teams. It'll break the CPU's pursuit and make it unable to make the glitched catch.

That was where it was at. Wasn't aware that it was a Wrigley field bug.

[azstdogg]

Re: Scripted Innings!

The devs said clutch does not have much of an impact on the game and it is for RISP, regardless of the inning.

I just think it is a combination of starters wearing down and you get see middle relievers (who are the worst pitchers on the team usually).

As for me personally...I would take my online games with a grain of salt. I think the focus of this thread was for mainly offline games and giving the CPU some "comeback code". I could have interpreted the OP wrongly, however.

I am curious though if you could find some random DD player in the 1600-1700s and run that same test? If you get 3-4 random DD players and they all score more in the 6th and 7th inning..that would be interesting.

Data for 3 random DD players:

Inning | MLB 2015 | BigMitchh | JakeG_15 | Mrs_Obama
1st | 13% | 12% | 12% | 9%
2nd | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8%
3rd | 11% | 9% | 8% | 12%
4th | 12% | 9% | 13% | 12%
5th | 12% | 13% | 11% | 9%
6th | 12% | 9% | 11% | 10%
7th | 12% | 14% | 15% | 18%
8th | 10% | 17% | 11% | 11%
9th | 7% | 9% | 10% | 11%

BigMitchh is rated 1687; JakeG_15 is 1679; Mrs_Obama is 1769. While the 8th inning accounts for the most runs for BigMitchh's data set, the 7th is the next highest.

Also, regarding DD, most of these teams appear to have fully stacked teams (spot checked), so I don't think the middle reliever/worse pitcher theory would be at play here. Possibly not even starter fatigue for the diamond level starters and legends pitching in these games, but maybe (I didn't check to see how long they pitched).

I don't have any data for offline games vs. CPU, but it should be easy for someone with a bunch of time to run through a number of games and tabulate the data.

BigMitchh data was 53 9-inning games; JakeG_15 was 60 9-inning games; Mrs_Obama was 53 9-inning games. All were DD.

[azstdogg]

Re: Scripted Innings!

Using the same data, here is the % of runs scored in innings 7-9 by the team trailing after 6 innings compared to the team that was leading:

CB5 Data
Trailing | 53%
Other | 31%

So, the team that was trailing scored 53% of all of their runs in innings 7-9 while the team that was leading scored 31% of their runs in the 7th or later.

BigMitchh
Trailing | 54%
Other | 33%

JakeG_15
Trailing | 50%
Other | 31%

Mrs_Obama
Trailing | 56%
Other | 31%

Across all for users' data sets, the team that was trailing going into the 7th was more likely to score in the later innings.

And by inning it stands out even more that something is favoring the trailing team in the later innings (usually the 7th):

CB5
Inning | Trailing | Other
1 | 15% | 9%
2 | 7% | 10%
3 | 12% | 15%
4 | 5% | 11%
5 | 2% | 11%
6 | 7% | 13%
7 | 39% | 15%
8 | 10% | 13%
9 | 3% | 2%


BigMitchh
Inning | Trailing | Other
1 | 7% | 14%
2 | 11% | 8%
3 | 12% | 8%
4 | 5% | 11%
5 | 6% | 16%
6 | 6% | 10%
7 | 15% | 13%
8 | 23% | 15%
9 | 16% | 5%



JakeG_15
Inning | Trailing | Other
1 | 9% | 13%
2 | 5% | 10%
3 | 6% | 10%
4 | 15% | 12%
5 | 12% | 10%
6 | 4% | 13%
7 | 30% | 9%
8 | 10% | 12%
9 | 10% | 10%


Mrs_Obama
Inning | Trailing | Other
1 | 7% | 10%
2 | 8% | 9%
3 | 8% | 13%
4 | 6% | 13%
5 | 6% | 12%
6 | 7% | 13%
7 | 24% | 13%
8 | 14% | 10%
9 | 19% | 8%



Other is leading or tied.

[cardinalbird5]

Re: Scripted Innings!

What about my opponents in the 7th inning? Do they hit better?


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[riker147]

Re: Scripted Innings!

What about my opponents in the 7th inning? Do they hit better?


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It's not that they're "hitting better". It's the increase in the amount of errors (both fielding and throwing) , passed balls, wild pitches, bloop hits, fielders holding the ball longer, weak lob throws, throws way off line, what "should" be "easy" throws pulling fielder's off bases, more pitches gravitating towards the middle of the plate etc. At least those are the types of things I've noticed happening a little more frequently towards the end of a game that I'm leading. Not always, but enough to aggravate me.

Sent from my NCC-1701 using Tapatalk.

[forme95]

Re: Scripted Innings!

Me personally, I dont mind me getting a rally going, or even the AI getting one going. I just wish it was more random instead of always in the last 3 innings. I understand the mechanics behind why it can happen and I am not against it. It takes away the fun though always knowing (well usually knowing bc it isnt 100% of the time) that its going to happen. My only downside to this game is that I can watch real baseball and have no idea what is going to happen inning to inning. This game, you usually have an idea by how the way the game goes. The streaks are to streaky so to say. I'd like to see more randomness in series, in weeks, in months.

[Blzer]

Re: Scripted Innings!

MI'd like to see more randomness in series, in weeks, in months.

I used to get more game-to-game randomness back in the MLB '11/12 era where I would crank the wind speed slider up to max. It doesn't change the severity of the wind (in other words, 5 MPH is 5 MPH no matter the slider), but it would increase the ceiling for what the wind speed might be for any given day. I have had up to 40 MPH winds blowing out, in, or across before. It wasn't common, but at least it was possible.

It would be nice sometimes just knowing that, "Well, the ball won't be going out today," or the other way around. Gave the numbers a bit more of that "randomness" to which you're referring.

I still keep it at 10, but I think they've since neutered the ceiling of the slider, which is just too darn bad haha.

[forme95]

Re: Scripted Innings!

If there was a scripted or comeback code, this wouldn't have happened?

[cardinalbird5]

Re: Scripted Innings!

TBH, AzSTDogg has provided the most statistical support. One game, albeit very cool, does not mean there is or is not a comeback code.

I don't really believe there is a comeback code, but I also have not provided any statistical analysis like AzSTDogg has...so props to him. I think he is the first one ever to back up his thesis with some type of evidence.

I am curious to see if someone else can provide stats to support the other side of the argument, besides posting one box score where they won a close game.

[forme95]

Re: Scripted Innings!

TBH, AzSTDogg has provided the most statistical support. One game, albeit very cool, does not mean there is or is not a comeback code.

I don't really believe there is a comeback code, but I also have not provided any statistical analysis like AzSTDogg has...so props to him. I think he is the first one ever to back up his thesis with some type of evidence.

I am curious to see if someone else can provide stats to support the other side of the argument, besides posting one box score where they won a close game.

I could post a whole month of close games...... Doesn't mean there is a comeback code. It means May was a tough month for me lol. But I can and will if forum members feel they need to see it.

Sent from my HTC One mini using Tapatalk

[bcruise]

Re: Scripted Innings!

I mentioned this earlier, but I went ahead and brought form to the idea - I created a community challenge where the goal is simply to hold a lead for a half inning on HOF difficulty. It's called "OS Scripting Challenge - HOF"

The pitcher is the Astros Dallas Keuchel, and you're facing the top of the KC Royals order in the top of the 7th - the potential for comeback is definitely real here. 3 outs will win the challenge, 2 runs allowed (ANY two runs, not just earned) will fail it. In addition, Keuchel's around 1/4 energy and near full confidence - implying that he's had a good game but is wearing down. Substitutions are disabled so no relievers - you can think of failing the challenge as being the reason to go to the pen. I left all gameplay options available except difficulty and sliders (they're all default), because I don't want this to be about who's better - it's about the results you're getting with whatever settings YOU use.

I played the challenge 10 times before uploading, and my results were as varied as I expected. I won it 8 times and failed twice, and gave up a single run in one of the successes. Here's a video of all of them (the only cuts are me stopping the video after each attempt, the attempts themselves are unedited, that's why it's 30 mins long).

<iframe width="640" height="480" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/taDoi3p7nTI?rel=0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

A few thoughts:

- It's probably clear right from the start how I pitch on HOF - VERY carefully. Even more so when I know the pitcher is tiring. That's because I know what the CPU will do if I try to sneak strikes over the plate. That knowledge alone is enough to force me to throw some walks, but it also results in the CPU chasing. I was also able to get quite a few ground ball outs on weak contact, some of them at VERY opportune times. Defense turned out to be almost as big a factor in this challenge as pitching.

- On that note.....Oh boy, did I ever have some adventures with the Houston outfield. A bad read off the wall, stopping too far away on a routine fly and almost missing the ball, etc. The rust is real - it's been a few weeks since I last played the game.

There is one thing that this challenge cannot duplicate from the real game, due to a lack of information - there's no previous pitch patterns to pick up on. By this time in an actual game the CPU will have a pretty good idea of what you're throwing, and it WILL adjust and hammer you if continue the same approach, ESPECIALLY on HOF. It can definitely still hit you even without that knowledge (as I believe this challenge shows), but the danger is much more real when it has 6 innings of pitch data to look at. I think this challenge might well go a long way in showing just how much of an effect the CPU's pattern reading can have, and that it might even be the true cause of the phenomenon people see as comeback or scripting.

So, that's about it...give it a shot - the more attempts the better - and post your results. If there's interest I can create an identical scenario on All-Star, I just wanted to start on HOF because that seems to be where the most perceived "scripting" goes on.

Edit: Oh, that's nice...disabling substitutions doesn't disable relievers. Well, the spirit of this challenge is to try to win in the actual situation I'm aiming to create (plus there's no stub risk anymore), so I'd appreciate it if you guys don't go into the pen. Honestly, with that bullpen a tired Keuchel might still be the best option anyway. Also the video's probably going to be muted because Youtube is dumb, and I'm dumber for not disabling the music. And one more thing, I think the order of the attempts is reversed - it's most noticeable at one point when a pop-up banner at the start of an attempt spoils the attempt that follows after it. Probably just the way I put the videos together on Sharefactory - not a big deal.

[Ghost Of The Year]

Re: Scripted Innings!

Now this is just my guess but the people who feel a scripted effect most likely tend to play with a little more predictability. Again, that's just an opinion.