With the changes that Sony made to the sim engine, progression, and in balancing the game, we should have a spot to discuss how progression and regression work. Feel free to post your own data for progression of ratings/stats/budgets etc..
I decided to run a simulation where I tracked a handful of players and I recorded how some of their attributes changed over time. Some of this could be useful for people making rosters and setting attributes for young players. It helps to know what attributes progress and by how much.
Our first player, Rico Trujillo, started as a 20-year-old catcher with 93 potential in the Yankees system:
Our second example is Doug Tonis, who started as a 19-year-old 3B with 89 potential in the Giants' system:
For pitchers, we can take a look at Gavin Vela, who began as a 19-year-old SP with 91 potential in the Rockies' organization:
Our final member of this cohort was Scott Stubbs, a 21-year-old SP with 87 potential in the Braves' system:
Now one thing you might find disappointing is that I didn't track /9 attributes, hitting attributes, or stats (though I could look the stats up in my save file). The reason being with performance-based progression, I figured that hitting and pitching attributes like those would depend too much on performance, which couldn't be captured accurately in a single simulation.
I decided to track physical attributes that should be less influenced by performance--things like fielding, speed, arm strength, and velocity.
Some interesting things here to unpack.
PITCHERS
1. As promised, Sony really toned down the progression of pitching velocity. I never saw the velocity attribute (which is an amalgamation of the velocity on all of the pitches in a pitcher's arsenal) progress or regress at all. Both Vela and Stubbs started and ended their careers with the same exact rating there.
2. The same thing was observed with the break attribute. Again, no observed progression/regression with regard to pitch break.
3. The pitch control attribute is a bit more difficult to figure out from only this data. Vela's control progressed by about 3 points per year until age 25, then stabilized from ages 25 to 30, then started to fall by 2-4 points per year until retirement. Stubbs, on the other hand, saw his control increase by 2 pts/year pretty much throughout his entire career until his age 32 season before holding constant to age 35 and dropping 3 points during his swan song.
4. Stamina did not seem to progress at all. It stayed the same until the early 30s (31-33) before declining by 1 pt/year for Stubbs or more drastically by 3-4 pts/year for Vela.
5. Clutch and overall both progressed and regressed according to an aging curve. Vela had an earlier peak (25-32 y/o) than Stubbs (29-36 y/o). This is nice to see that not every player will follow the same path. This also hints at performance-based progression being a factor here. Stubbs was toiling in the minors for the Marlins' organization before being picked up at age 29 by the Yankees in 2024 and becoming a key cog in their rotation. That workload was probably driving his late blooming peak. Kind of neat.
6. Interestingly, even though Stubbs was still quite effective (86 OVR) he retired at age 36 whereas Vela hung on until age 37 (only 59 OVR by then). Even more interesting is that it looks like Vela survived over 1 year as a free agent. Normally players retire at the end of the year if unsigned.
POSITION PLAYERS
1. For both Rico Trujillo and Doug Tonis, all fielding attributes progressed by 2-3 points per year from age 19 to age 26 before leveling off until age 32 before starting to regress. Tonis regressed very slightly by 0-1 pts/year in each category until retiring at age 35. Trujillo started off this way, but then started dropping 4-5 points in each category by age 34 until retiring at age 39.
2. Both players followed the same pattern for speed. Speed starts off at a maximum, then stays the same until age 26-27. Afterward, regression is 1 pt/year until age 34, when it becomes 2 pts/per year. Speed does not progress so this implies that created speedsters should be given their maximum speed right away instead of 'growing into it'.
3. Clutch and overall follow the same pattern as for the pitchers above. Rico Trujillo had a similar arc as Gavin Vela did (both A POT). Doug Tonis' path followed Scott Stubbs more closely (both B POT).
MISC
1. One thing I found interesting that I've never seen mentioned about this game before, is that it seems as though retirement age correlates to potential. Or at least in this small group of players. Trujillo and Vela (A POT) didn't retire until later 30s (39 and 37 respectively). Stubbs and Tonis (B POT) retired at age 36 and 35 respectively even though both still had pretty high OVR ratings! Stubbs was still an 85 OVR when he retired...Tonis was 81 OVR. Another bit of evidence that supports this observation is that I also tracked Ketel Marte and Colin Rea (data not shown) and both of these players had C potential and both retired in their early 30s. Marte only played until 30 y/o and Rea until 31 y/o. Do A POT players retire at older ages regardless of OVR? Do B and C POT players retire younger even if they're still useful? That might be the case.
2. Another interesting tidbit...both A potential players had high peaks, but seemed to regress much faster. Trujillo and Vela both had OVR ratings that reached into the 90s (97 max for Trujillo and 92 max for Vela), yet by the time Gavin Vela was 35, his OVR was down to 67 and Trujillo was down to 76 OVR by age 36. Meanwhile, Tonis was still 81 OVR at age 35 and Stubbs was still 87 OVR at 35 years old. Do players with higher peaks regress faster? If so, this has implications for sustaining a hall of fame level career or not being able to.
3. The potential ratings didn't change much for any of these players. I wonder if there will be fewer 'stock is rising' and 'stock is falling' situations.
I decided to run a simulation where I tracked a handful of players and I recorded how some of their attributes changed over time. Some of this could be useful for people making rosters and setting attributes for young players. It helps to know what attributes progress and by how much.
Our first player, Rico Trujillo, started as a 20-year-old catcher with 93 potential in the Yankees system:
Code:
Team Year Age CLUTCH FLD ARM STR ARM ACC REAC SPD OVR NYY 2016 20 42 67 64 67 83 44 69 NYY 2017 21 46 70 67 70 86 44 73 NYY 2018 22 50 73 70 73 89 44 77 NYY 2019 23 53 75 73 76 92 44 82 NYY 2020 24 56 77 75 78 95 44 85 NYY 2021 25 59 80 77 81 98 44 87 NYY 2022 26 62 82 80 83 99 44 93 NYY 2023 27 63 83 82 84 99 43 94 NYY 2024 28 63 83 82 84 99 42 96 NYY 2025 29 63 82 81 83 98 41 97 NYY 2026 30 64 81 81 83 98 40 96 NYY 2027 31 65 81 81 83 98 39 94 NYY 2028 32 66 81 81 83 99 38 95 NYY 2029 33 64 79 79 80 97 37 94 NYY 2030 34 60 75 75 75 92 35 91 NYY 2031 35 57 71 70 71 88 33 84 NYY 2032 36 53 66 66 66 84 31 76 CWS-AAA 2033 37 49 61 61 61 79 29 70 MIN-AAA 2034 38 44 56 56 56 73 27 62 DET 2035 39 39 51 51 51 68 25 58
Our second example is Doug Tonis, who started as a 19-year-old 3B with 89 potential in the Giants' system:
Code:
Team Year Age CLUTCH FLD ARM STR ARM ACC REAC SPD OVR SF 2016 19 30 62 73 68 76 59 68 SF 2017 20 33 65 75 71 78 59 70 SF 2018 21 36 68 78 74 81 59 70 SF 2019 22 39 71 80 77 83 59 74 SF 2020 23 42 73 82 79 85 59 74 SF 2021 24 46 76 84 81 88 59 79 SF 2022 25 47 78 86 83 90 59 83 SF 2023 26 49 80 88 84 91 58 81 SF 2024 27 49 80 88 84 90 57 83 CLE 2025 28 49 80 88 85 90 56 83 CLE 2026 29 48 80 88 85 90 55 84 CLE 2027 30 49 80 87 86 90 54 83 CLE 2028 31 49 80 87 86 90 53 87 CLE 2029 32 49 79 86 85 89 52 87 CLE 2030 33 49 78 85 85 89 51 86 CLE 2031 34 50 78 85 85 89 50 82 CLE 2032 35 48 76 83 83 86 48 81
For pitchers, we can take a look at Gavin Vela, who began as a 19-year-old SP with 91 potential in the Rockies' organization:
Code:
Team Year Age CLUTCH STAM CONTROL VELO BREAK OVR COL 2016 19 36 76 52 66 74 71 COL 2017 20 40 76 55 66 74 71 COL 2018 21 44 76 58 66 74 78 COL 2019 22 47 76 62 66 74 82 COL 2020 23 50 76 65 66 74 85 COL 2021 24 53 76 68 66 74 89 COL 2022 25 57 76 70 66 74 91 COL 2023 26 57 76 71 66 74 92 COL 2024 27 58 76 72 66 74 91 COL 2025 28 59 76 72 66 74 91 COL 2026 29 59 77 71 66 74 91 COL 2027 30 60 77 72 66 74 92 COL 2028 31 59 75 70 66 74 89 COL 2029 32 57 73 66 66 74 84 COL 2030 33 55 70 62 66 74 80 LAA 2031 34 51 66 58 66 74 75 BOS-AAA 2032 35 47 62 53 66 74 67 FA 2033 36 44 58 48 66 74 59 FA 2034 37 44 58 48 66 74 59
Our final member of this cohort was Scott Stubbs, a 21-year-old SP with 87 potential in the Braves' system:
Code:
Team Year Age CLUTCH STAM CONTROL VELO BREAK OVR ATL 2016 21 33 71 48 69 84 60 ATL 2017 22 37 71 50 69 84 63 ATL 2018 23 40 71 53 69 84 66 ATL 2019 24 44 71 55 69 84 69 NYY-AAA 2020 25 48 71 57 69 84 71 NYY 2021 26 50 70 59 69 84 74 MIA 2022 27 53 70 61 69 84 77 MIA-AAA 2023 28 55 69 63 69 84 76 NYY 2024 29 58 70 65 69 84 82 NYY 2025 30 60 70 67 69 84 83 NYY 2026 31 63 70 69 69 84 84 NYY 2027 32 65 71 71 69 84 85 NYY 2028 33 65 70 71 69 84 85 NYM 2029 34 65 69 71 69 84 88 NYM 2030 35 65 69 72 69 84 87 NYM 2031 36 62 68 69 69 84 85
I decided to track physical attributes that should be less influenced by performance--things like fielding, speed, arm strength, and velocity.
Some interesting things here to unpack.
PITCHERS
1. As promised, Sony really toned down the progression of pitching velocity. I never saw the velocity attribute (which is an amalgamation of the velocity on all of the pitches in a pitcher's arsenal) progress or regress at all. Both Vela and Stubbs started and ended their careers with the same exact rating there.
2. The same thing was observed with the break attribute. Again, no observed progression/regression with regard to pitch break.
3. The pitch control attribute is a bit more difficult to figure out from only this data. Vela's control progressed by about 3 points per year until age 25, then stabilized from ages 25 to 30, then started to fall by 2-4 points per year until retirement. Stubbs, on the other hand, saw his control increase by 2 pts/year pretty much throughout his entire career until his age 32 season before holding constant to age 35 and dropping 3 points during his swan song.
4. Stamina did not seem to progress at all. It stayed the same until the early 30s (31-33) before declining by 1 pt/year for Stubbs or more drastically by 3-4 pts/year for Vela.
5. Clutch and overall both progressed and regressed according to an aging curve. Vela had an earlier peak (25-32 y/o) than Stubbs (29-36 y/o). This is nice to see that not every player will follow the same path. This also hints at performance-based progression being a factor here. Stubbs was toiling in the minors for the Marlins' organization before being picked up at age 29 by the Yankees in 2024 and becoming a key cog in their rotation. That workload was probably driving his late blooming peak. Kind of neat.
6. Interestingly, even though Stubbs was still quite effective (86 OVR) he retired at age 36 whereas Vela hung on until age 37 (only 59 OVR by then). Even more interesting is that it looks like Vela survived over 1 year as a free agent. Normally players retire at the end of the year if unsigned.
POSITION PLAYERS
1. For both Rico Trujillo and Doug Tonis, all fielding attributes progressed by 2-3 points per year from age 19 to age 26 before leveling off until age 32 before starting to regress. Tonis regressed very slightly by 0-1 pts/year in each category until retiring at age 35. Trujillo started off this way, but then started dropping 4-5 points in each category by age 34 until retiring at age 39.
2. Both players followed the same pattern for speed. Speed starts off at a maximum, then stays the same until age 26-27. Afterward, regression is 1 pt/year until age 34, when it becomes 2 pts/per year. Speed does not progress so this implies that created speedsters should be given their maximum speed right away instead of 'growing into it'.
3. Clutch and overall follow the same pattern as for the pitchers above. Rico Trujillo had a similar arc as Gavin Vela did (both A POT). Doug Tonis' path followed Scott Stubbs more closely (both B POT).
MISC
1. One thing I found interesting that I've never seen mentioned about this game before, is that it seems as though retirement age correlates to potential. Or at least in this small group of players. Trujillo and Vela (A POT) didn't retire until later 30s (39 and 37 respectively). Stubbs and Tonis (B POT) retired at age 36 and 35 respectively even though both still had pretty high OVR ratings! Stubbs was still an 85 OVR when he retired...Tonis was 81 OVR. Another bit of evidence that supports this observation is that I also tracked Ketel Marte and Colin Rea (data not shown) and both of these players had C potential and both retired in their early 30s. Marte only played until 30 y/o and Rea until 31 y/o. Do A POT players retire at older ages regardless of OVR? Do B and C POT players retire younger even if they're still useful? That might be the case.
2. Another interesting tidbit...both A potential players had high peaks, but seemed to regress much faster. Trujillo and Vela both had OVR ratings that reached into the 90s (97 max for Trujillo and 92 max for Vela), yet by the time Gavin Vela was 35, his OVR was down to 67 and Trujillo was down to 76 OVR by age 36. Meanwhile, Tonis was still 81 OVR at age 35 and Stubbs was still 87 OVR at 35 years old. Do players with higher peaks regress faster? If so, this has implications for sustaining a hall of fame level career or not being able to.
3. The potential ratings didn't change much for any of these players. I wonder if there will be fewer 'stock is rising' and 'stock is falling' situations.
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