Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

[Unlucky 13]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

I don't even look at overall. I had Beltran as a 69 overall and he hit .290 18 Hrs for me.

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Well, its not just OVR of course though. The guys are dropping in large chunks in most of the attributes across the board. That has to have an effect in how well they play.

[Ghost Of The Year]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

I don't even look at overall. I had Beltran as a 69 overall and he hit .290 18 Hrs for me.

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Well, the average player hit 16 HR's in 2015, so 18 wouldn't be unusual.
Now if he got 40 and had less than 50 Power, that OVRALL 69 would standout.

[KBLover]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

I wouldn't think it was that big a deal if it had happened after the season, but on June 1, does this mean that he'll drop 12-15 points by season's end? I guess I'll find out.

I'm already noticing a drop in how effective Lackey is. It adds another layer of thoughtfulness and intrigue to the game, I guess. However, if this proves consistant, I may be prone to just totally avoid older players in the future.

It depends. And not all older guys fall off.

Chapman is still blowing people away in my carryover at 34. Bastardo is 36 and still has 95 H/9 and K/9. My Chris Davis is 35 and still literally 99 Power vs RHP and over 80 Contact vs RHP. His OVR is dropping (now down to 85/A), but 80 Contact and 99 Power = Monster.

Homer Bailey is 34 and his 80 H/9, 83 BB/9, 88 Vel

Darell "OP 70 MPH Curve" Pate is 34 and 83/71/70/64 in his /9 with 97 movement

Eric Young has fallen down at 35, but still 80's in speed/baserunning with 70 defense - so still worth a roster spot as a contact hitter/defensive sub/PR.

This is just the two teams I'm in a game with now. I don't load up on older guys, but if one is useful and has solid ratings, I'll take a look at him.

[Unlucky 13]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

I thought that Id add to the thread that I've gotten to July, and the regression for the older players wasn't as severe as it had been the first two months. Perhaps the game had gotten them closer to what it feels their appropriate levels are now?

All of my players are regressing like crazy in discipline, which must be tied directly to the amount of walks that they take. Sadly, walks are he hardest thing to do in the game, so I don't have much of a solution. Zobrist is hit the hardest, with a -11 in the catagory, even though he's my team leader in number of walks taken and walk rate.

[KBLover]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

All of my players are regressing like crazy in discipline, which must be tied directly to the amount of walks that they take. Sadly, walks are he hardest thing to do in the game, so I don't have much of a solution. Zobrist is hit the hardest, with a -11 in the catagory, even though he's my team leader in number of walks taken and walk rate.

I noticed that last year, too, with the Discipline dropping like a brick. Vision also, even if they don't strike out that much (my Marlins are #1 in fewest K's).

[elbomberoloco]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

http://www.operationsports.com/forum...e-results.html

Interesting thread on player progressions...

[Unlucky 13]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

I noticed that last year, too, with the Discipline dropping like a brick. Vision also, even if they don't strike out that much (my Marlins are #1 in fewest K's).

My Cubs are among the best in fewest K's, and most have the vision going up, actually. However, that's likely because it was low for many of them to begin with, so the game is normalizing it since they aren't striking out. For example, Kris Bryant started with a very low vision number, around 30 I think, and he's up about 10 points at mid season.

[jcmreds]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

If it wasn't for quick counts I wouldn't draw any walks. With QC on I draw about 5 per game.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

It's better than it has been in past years, but this game still hates players over 35.

I'm in the 2017 season and despite being one of the best players in the league performance wise, Jose Bautista's ratings are melting. Two months in and at least a -4 in every category (except drag bunts for some reason he's +4, which is dumb he's never even attempted a drag bunt).

This game is in desperate need of a revamp of the progression/regression system. I'm not sure I have a better solution but as it stands right now there I would be stupid to go after any 34+ year old in free agency. I know that their attributes will drop like flies.

[RogueHominid]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

I have some oldies on my Dodgers team, and 1.5 months in, guys like Utley are -1 in many categories and -2 in others.

From my own roster, it looks like it's normal to lose a 1-2 points per category per month, which I'm fine with for older players.

I do agree with the above poster that signing anyone over 32-33 is a suicide move.

[tabarnes19_SDS]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

It's better than it has been in past years, but this game still hates players over 35.

I'm in the 2017 season and despite being one of the best players in the league performance wise, Jose Bautista's ratings are melting. Two months in and at least a -4 in every category (except drag bunts for some reason he's +4, which is dumb he's never even attempted a drag bunt).

This game is in desperate need of a revamp of the progression/regression system. I'm not sure I have a better solution but as it stands right now there I would be stupid to go after any 34+ year old in free agency. I know that their attributes will drop like flies.

I've ran Sims where Bautista is 85 overall at age 39. Still hitting bombs.

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[KBLover]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

This game is in desperate need of a revamp of the progression/regression system. I'm not sure I have a better solution but as it stands right now there I would be stupid to go after any 34+ year old in free agency. I know that their attributes will drop like flies.

There's a line of thought in real life that would agree that it's not that smart to go for 34+ year old players, at least not on a long term basis. I saw some articles on fangraphs about aging curves. I'm not sure how relevant it is to MLBTS (though I could see a computer program working with general trend +/- randomness +/- user choices +/- player performance).

Beyond 30 isn't pretty, basically, according to the curves.

I don't know how fast is too fast. I have a 35-year-old in Chris Davis who still has 99 power and 80 contact vs RHP. Basically, what he had four seasons ago at 31. There's other 35+ players still holding on to very high ratings.

And, yes, I will be trying like heck to extend Davis. It might be for just 2 years...but I will be extending Davis.

While I don't want all 35+ y/o players to fall apart rapidly...I don't want a league of Julio Francos...as much as I loved Julio Franco as a player.

This is a reason why what players like Franco or Moyer or Rickey Henderson or David Ortiz still strong/effective/dominant at advanced ages is a big deal...it's relatively rare.

[Unlucky 13]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

It's better than it has been in past years, but this game still hates players over 35.

I'm in the 2017 season and despite being one of the best players in the league performance wise, Jose Bautista's ratings are melting. Two months in and at least a -4 in every category (except drag bunts for some reason he's +4, which is dumb he's never even attempted a drag bunt).

This game is in desperate need of a revamp of the progression/regression system. I'm not sure I have a better solution but as it stands right now there I would be stupid to go after any 34+ year old in free agency. I know that their attributes will drop like flies.

Yeah, in my Cubs franchise, I will absolutely be trading (or trying to trade) John Lackey after the season. I'm now also trending towards moving Zobrist too, even though he's doing great halfway through 2016 because he's dropping so fast, and signed to big money for three more seasons. That was absolutely not my intention at the start, but I can't be stupid about it.

[TheWarmWind]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

Wow, I didn't think I'd get so many responses to my comment. I've been thinking about this problem. I think I'd like it if performance had more of an impact, while progression and regression just had multipliers based on age.

So young guys have huge multipliers to progression and minute multipliers to regression. Meanwhile vets have the opposite. This would create a system where older players who continue to perform would hold steady whereas a bad year or two could devastate another vet.

I do see a system like that causing problems though. There would definitely be a snowball effect, which is realistic in some cases but not 100% of the time.

[KBLover]

Re: Do players regress a lot in franchise again this year?

Meanwhile vets have the opposite. This would create a system where older players who continue to perform would hold steady whereas a bad year or two could devastate another vet.

I think just giving players their own curves that tend to follow the trend but some can buck it would achieve the same result but in a more realistic way.

Ortiz isn't holding on to his skills because he's constantly having stud seasons - his lack of declining skills is what's keeping him having stud seasons.

I guess I'm saying I'd like video games to put the horse before the cart.

I think the existing system is pretty close to achieving that. Just needs some more individuality and perhaps influence from coaching could be stronger.

Baseball Mogul had three hidden "ratings" for each player - a peak start, peak end, and longevity.

Peak start is when the player starts to level off and be what he's going to be, barring the unexpected. Peak end is where the player's decline phase begins. Longevity is how rapidly the player's abilities fall off.

I think MLBTS could incorporate something similar. It would be/should be hidden and would allow quick flame outs, OMGWTFAWESOME peaks surrounded by a whole lot of nothing, phenoms, busts, late bloomers, and Julio Franco.