Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

[jlech84]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

1. How many years did you guys sim?...
I simmed to the beginning of 2016

2. How many different times did you sim those years?
I've done it about 3 times and recorded results 1

3. How did you check

-A. Who is available in the draft?
I set everything to auto, I was complely hands off I didn't even note who won the world series, but I would check league leaders and team stats for ERA, AVG, etc.
I didn't check who was being drafted by who, who was being traded or who signed in the off-season.

-B. Who was actually drafted by the teams?
see above

4.Did you check the statistics in these years?
I did, the players (pitchers) aren't by any means taking league by storm.

5.How did you check the available funds for
-A.The FA off season
I checked in the beginning of spring training. The FA screen and just clicked on the first free agent and it tells you on the top the payroll and amount available (at least i believe I'm away from my PS3 at the moment)

-B. The funds available for FA during a season(off the FA list)
For funds available I am only referring to for contracts. I don't factor in the amount for extra seating and vending (I am an econ/finance guy and that stuff is just set up ridiculously so I just ignore it)

I want to note when I say players rated B and above I am not referring to potential, I am referring to the overall rating. I apologize is this creates any confusion. That being said there may be a problem with the progression of players (perhaps still working out kinks with potential being dynamic) and not the actual draft itself. It was short sighted of me to instantly blame/identify the draft as the problem as it could be a combination of factors.

As for player contracts, here is the problem I am seeing and I'll try to explain it the best I can.

There are, well at least in the times I've simmed (would be interested to see your results) a high number of OVR rated B and A pitchers. They do not perform quite up to their ratings , I've not had problems with the sim stats I'm getting. The issue at hand is how much players ask for in contracts. So a player who is rated say the 180th best SP in the league is asking for too much. From what I can tell the formula for deriving what a player should ask for in salary is mostly based on the OVR rating and has less to do with Major League success.

So yeah I'd appreciate any more questions, responses, suggestions. There could be something I am missing or misunderstanding.

Right now I am playing other games and am actually kinda busy so I won't have a chance to run another sim, but I'll again soon and post the results.

[jlech84]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

Another point I wanted to make and its why I am having problems with seeing the payrolls increase so much is and I think it better explains my problems with pitchers contracts:

The Show exists in a fixed economy. There is no inflation, the most you can charge for a ticket in 2010 is the same amount in 2016. The highest salary you can give a player will always be $25 mil a year. Now I have no problems with this being fixed. It most likely makes all the calculations etc a lot simpler. Here is the problem though. If the show is in a "fixed economy" then payrolls should always remain about the same.

That being said the way player contracts should work is a formula based on a ranking system combined with potential and age. (this does assume that talent in the league remains distrusted normally so like we don't 30 1B as good as Pujols and the best SS playing at a Ryan Theriot level) . So the 5th best 1st basemen should be asking for X amount the 40th best 1st baseman Y amount etc etc.

[Knight165]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

Okay...

Well you had me looking in another direction.(and you obviously have everyone else believing your "problem" stemmed from the amateur draft)

Before I go any further...I incorrectly stated that the number of A pitchers increased by 30. It did not. It increased by 10.
It went from 195 on the default roster I used to 205 in 2015.

Thanks for answering those questions jl.....I wasn't testing you()...it's just that I was not seeing what other people were posting...and the best way for me to figure out why...was to see the parameters people used.
While you are speaking of a problem that has the salaries of the pitchers too closely grouped(that's what I'm assuming)....others are screaming of pitchers taking over the league....too many A/B potential players coming out of the draft(which does increase...but with the count from above...I'm guessing it's due to retirements...it's nearly identical in numbers in 5 years of franchise)...and I just am not getting that....in an obscene amount of simming
Perhaps in years 6 and beyond things might shift...but so far...nope.

Now...I am in the middle of the 2015 FA season.
I went to SP#1...he's asking 5yrs/110 million
I went to the lowest rated SP....he's asking 3yrs/90 K
#1 RP 2 yrs/4.5 million
lowest RP 31K per year.
Am I doing what you are referring to here?

...and every team has money for the FA period(and I waited until mid January when all the team contracts had to be tenured)...and the available funds for each team range from 37 mil to 103 mil)
(*I will admit...I'm not the biggest finance guy though)
Do you happen to have that franchise file that you noted in the spreadsheet?
(believe me...it's not that I don't believe you....I just love to tinker with this stuff)

Here is my file saved at that point in free agency....
.....http://www.sendspace.com/file/at8315

Thanks.

M.K.
Knight165

[Knight165]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

Onto things I noted from the 5 years of franchise.
These are the averages of the 10 times I did it....except the league leader info is from the last three years specific.
I'll put in spoilers....because it's pretty close every single time I simmed(the draft #'s)

Amateur draft P(all three...sp/rp/cp)-PP #'s(A/B combined)
Year 1

Spoiler

Pitchers A/B combined-10
Position players A/B combined-12

Year 2

Spoiler

Pitchers A/B combined-10
Position players A/B combined-10

Year 3

Spoiler

Pitchers A/B combined-26
Position players-12

Year 4

Spoiler

Pitchers-18
Position players-8

Year 5

Spoiler

Pitchers-19
Position players-5

Stats top 15 for each league
Year 3

Spoiler

AL BA...from .331-.312
NL BA....from .326-.301
AL HR's 49-30
NL HR's 42-33
AL Wins 20-14
NL Winds 21-15
AL ERA 2.13- 3.38
NL ERA 2.08- 3.26
All teams in the plus side for available funds in both the FA period off season and for FA signings in season

Year 4

Spoiler

AL BA .327-.310(1 fake player in the list)
NL BA .340-.305(2 fake players in the list)
AL HR's 49-35
NL HR's 47-30
AL Wins 21-15(2 fake players)
NL Wins 20-15(3 fake players)
AL ERA 2.55-3.76
NL ERA 2.00-3.66
All teams with funds for both periods

Year 5

Spoiler

AL BA .344-.298(3 fake players)
NL BA .336-.308(5 fake players)
AL HR's 50-35
NL HR's 51-34
AL Wins 21-15
NL Wins 17-13
AL ERA 2.10-3.56
NL ERA 2.22 .368
All teams with available funds for the off season FA period

Year 6(I started moving on)

Spoiler

AL BA .343-.290
NL BA .331-.298
AL HR's 41-30
NL HR's 46-32
AL Wins 19-15
NL Wins 18-14
AL ERA 2.70-3.41
NL ERA 2.27-3.28

Make of it what you will.

M.K.
Knight165

[CPT]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

I simmed to 2013 in my Pirates franchise. I had a payroll of $123,000,000 and a budget of $85,000,000, leaving me a negative balance of nearly -$40,000,000.

Don't know about anybody else but that qualifies as broken for me.

so what's broken? Kind of confused.....

you went over your budget by nearly $40mil.... that's right, right?

Isn't that simply poor money management?

[jlech84]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

Yeah overall I'm not sure if the problem is with the draft or progression. The numbers you are getting would indicate that the draft really isn't the problem.

Then, unless I missed it could you post the # of pitchers rated OVR B and above. This is where my concern is coming from. When I tested the # of total players B and above (OVR) was 347 on the default rosters and 742 in my 2016 rosters. This is my main issue with the franchise and is causing the problems I am seeing. (I still have to test it another time though)

Then I didn't feel tested by any means, its nice to see others post with data to back up and suggestions on what could be wrong instead of just complaining.

Then as for finances teams have some cash to spend but I've seen lots of quality (well rated) players in FA.

Then what I am getting is tons of B OVR rated pitchers who put up stats like fringe starters and demand cash typically given to good #3, #4 guys.

Now...I am in the middle of the 2015 FA season.
I went to SP#1...he's asking 5yrs/110 million
I went to the lowest rated SP....he's asking 3yrs/90 K
#1 RP 2 yrs/4.5 million
lowest RP 31K per year.
Am I doing what you are referring to here?


No, I am fine with what the top and bottom players are asking for in salaries, I am more referring to seeing like the 10th best SP on a roster getting paid $3 mil.

Then I do have a problem seeing payrolls increase really at all as the potential income from ticket sales, media revenue, vendors never increase. I'd have suggestions to fix that, but that is really a different topic.

[tessl]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

so what's broken? Kind of confused.....

you went over your budget by nearly $40mil.... that's right, right?

Isn't that simply poor money management?

Nothing is broken, player potential is done perfectly this year. I'm ecstatic that they changed it from last year.

[bxgoods]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

Onto things I noted from the 5 years of franchise.
These are the averages of the 10 times I did it....except the league leader info is from the last three years specific.
I'll put in spoilers....because it's pretty close every single time I simmed(the draft #'s)

Amateur draft P(all three...sp/rp/cp)-PP #'s(A/B combined)
Year 1

Spoiler

Pitchers A/B combined-10
Position players A/B combined-12

Year 2

Spoiler

Pitchers A/B combined-10
Position players A/B combined-10

Year 3

Spoiler

Pitchers A/B combined-26
Position players-12

Year 4

Spoiler

Pitchers-18
Position players-8

Year 5

Spoiler

Pitchers-19
Position players-5

Stats top 15 for each league
Year 3

Spoiler

AL BA...from .331-.312
NL BA....from .326-.301
AL HR's 49-30
NL HR's 42-33
AL Wins 20-14
NL Winds 21-15
AL ERA 2.13- 3.38
NL ERA 2.08- 3.26
All teams in the plus side for available funds in both the FA period off season and for FA signings in season

Year 4

Spoiler

AL BA .327-.310(1 fake player in the list)
NL BA .340-.305(2 fake players in the list)
AL HR's 49-35
NL HR's 47-30
AL Wins 21-15(2 fake players)
NL Wins 20-15(3 fake players)
AL ERA 2.55-3.76
NL ERA 2.00-3.66
All teams with funds for both periods

Year 5

Spoiler

AL BA .344-.298(3 fake players)
NL BA .336-.308(5 fake players)
AL HR's 50-35
NL HR's 51-34
AL Wins 21-15
NL Wins 17-13
AL ERA 2.10-3.56
NL ERA 2.22 .368
All teams with available funds for the off season FA period

Year 6(I started moving on)

Spoiler

AL BA .343-.290
NL BA .331-.298
AL HR's 41-30
NL HR's 46-32
AL Wins 19-15
NL Wins 18-14
AL ERA 2.70-3.41
NL ERA 2.27-3.28

Make of it what you will.

M.K.
Knight165

i
So by your sims for year 1-5 in total
A/B pitchers 83,
A/B position players 43

That's exactly the disparity I see, there's double the amount of high potential pitchers than other positions. You can even find a couple FA pitchers as FA with A potential. It wasn't like that in 09, something seems off

[Knight165]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

i
So by your sims for year 1-5 in total
A/B pitchers 83,
A/B position players 43

That's exactly the disparity I see, there's double the amount of high potential pitchers than other positions. You can even find a couple FA pitchers as FA with A potential. It wasn't like that in 09, something seems off

Yeah...but who cares how many come in?.....like I said the total went from 195 off the default in '10....to 205 in '15. Obviously...A rated pitchers are leaving the league at a similar rate...so the attrition looks fine.
...and the stats actually bear out that offense if not nearly identical is actually outgrowing pitching in 5 years.
...also...I don't know if it was you or others...but guys were throwing out numbers of pitchers coming out at more like a 20 to 1 rate rather than a 2 to 1 rate.
Like I said...I did this 10 times pretty much the same each time...and that franchise save is from the last test I ran. That league looks fine to me 5 years in.
The one thing that has been said...and is bearing out in the tests is the baserunning ability and aggression of incoming draftees is too high. The SB leaders is "full" of fake players. I don't mind some....and it's not the actual speed that's bad(could be less though)....but there are some positions that kind of don't belong there(1B and maybe even a C)

M.K.
Knight165

[bxgoods]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

Yeah...but who cares how many come in?.....like I said the total went from 195 off the default in '10....to 205 in '15. Obviously...A rated pitchers are leaving the league at a similar rate...so the attrition looks fine.
...and the stats actually bear out that offense if not nearly identical is actually outgrowing pitching in 5 years.
...also...I don't know if it was you or others...but guys were throwing out numbers of pitchers coming out at more like a 20 to 1 rate rather than a 2 to 1 rate.
Like I said...I did this 10 times pretty much the same each time...and that franchise save is from the last test I ran. That league looks fine to me 5 years in.
The one thing that has been said...and is bearing out in the tests is the baserunning ability and aggression of incoming draftees is too high. The SB leaders is "full" of fake players. I don't mind some....and it's not the actual speed that's bad(could be less though)....but there are some positions that kind of don't belong there(1B and maybe even a C)

M.K.
Knight165

Well it probably bothers me more than the casual gamer because I'm a draft nut. And I liked scouting for diamonds in the rough, especially with pitchers in 09.

In 09 if you had a A potential pitcher in your minor league system, you had to cherish it because A potential pitchers were rare, and you would usually only get one in the 1st half of the draft. Seeing 2 A potential pitchers in the minors was ever more rare. So I would put higher value on the young arms, like you do in real life... You rarely see teams trade young pitchers with high potential. But in 10, I can trade 3 A potential pitchers from my farm system like nothing, because I know I can restock on them pretty easy in the next draft.

And also if I'm building a team from scratch, and I already have my pitching set and I need position players, then yea I would have a issue too. The only solution for that would be to change positions of any A potential position player I find. If I need a CF, I would find a 1B with A potential and change him to CF. Or change my LF to Catcher or so on. This is only a major issue for people who enjoy building their team through the draft.

[cardsleadtheway]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

The one thing that has been said...and is bearing out in the tests is the baserunning ability and aggression of incoming draftees is too high. The SB leaders is "full" of fake players. I don't mind some....and it's not the actual speed that's bad(could be less though)....but there are some positions that kind of don't belong there(1B and maybe even a C)

M.K.
Knight165

No more steroids man. This means faster players are being drafted to compensate for the lack of power. You want to be in the bigs, you've got to be able to run lol.

Great job in all the sim testing. I think in real life, and I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, pitching gets drafted at a clip of about 2-1 in the first few rounds anyway. Thanks Knight for the extra work in checking this out.

[Knight165]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

No problem.
One thing I noticed in this testing....but I noticed it too late to test it's results....is if you use 30 team control(but actually control nothing...it doesn't matter)...you can go into the team scouting focus and scouting players areas and uncheck pitchers for the opposing teams and check off the good/decent looking position players to scout.
I don't know if this will eventually influence the team drafting a position player they scouted over some of the A pitchers(if you feel the league is getting pitch heavy)....but it's worth checking out.(for guys who just want to sim or go with the CPU's choice in the draft).

Also...FYI....the top offensive player in either 2015 or 2016(I continued simming one of the saves until 2020)...was a fake player. I think his name is Abe something...he hit .300+ with 51 homers...so the progression will indeed grow some power hitters(there were a few fake players in the league leaders for homers a few years in)
But yes.....the BR ability and BR aggression will need some toning down IMO.
Put it on the list for '11!

M.K.
Knight165

[Dreifort]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

No more steroids man. This means faster players are being drafted to compensate for the lack of power. You want to be in the bigs, you've got to be able to run lol.

Great job in all the sim testing. I think in real life, and I am sure someone will correct me if I am wrong, pitching gets drafted at a clip of about 2-1 in the first few rounds anyway. Thanks Knight for the extra work in checking this out.

http://cgi.ebay.com/LCD-Digital-Kitchen-Cooking-Count-down-Up-Timer-Alarm_W0QQitemZ370338541394QQcmdZViewItemQQptZLH_DefaultDomain_0?hash=item5639e5af52

BUT....more position draftees make the majors than pitchers. I see ONE A rated pitcher in last yrs draft...Strasburg. Most teams draft a lot of pitchers hoping to find a rough gem they can polish themselves and turn into an A pitcher.

I can name 4 1st rd pitchers who have flopped for every 1 that has made it to the majors with success.....sure there may be more pitchers drafted in the draft than pos players....but position players are more likely the make the majors from the draft.

Keep in mind a good amount of "rookie" pitchers in MLB come outside the draft from overseas.

[cardsleadtheway]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

http://cgi.ebay.com/LCD-Digital-Kitc...item5639e5af52


BUT....more position draftees make the majors than pitchers. I see ONE A rated pitcher in last yrs draft...Strasburg. Most teams draft a lot of pitchers hoping to find a rough gem they can polish themselves and turn into an A pitcher.

I can name 4 1st rd pitchers who have flopped for every 1 that has made it to the majors with success.....sure there may be more pitchers drafted in the draft than pos players....but position players are more likely the make the majors from the draft.

Keep in mind a good amount of "rookie" pitchers in MLB come outside the draft from overseas.

Are you saying this as a percentage of players drafted or actual numbers. If you are saying that more position players make it to the pros than pitchers, well then in a few years there won't be any pitchers left.

I agree with you about the casting a net for pitchers, but I think the same can be said about position players. I can name 4 first round position players drafted in the first round that flopped for every 1 that makes it. How many of last year's draft would you consider A potential? I think most of the players that end up on the top 100 prospect lists, be it pitchers or position players, do so after a year or two in the minors. Rarely does one make it as a top prospect out of the draft.

[Dreifort]

Re: Information--amatuer draft MLB10--bug?

Are you saying this as a percentage of players drafted or actual numbers. If you are saying that more position players make it to the pros than pitchers, well then in a few years there won't be any pitchers left.

I agree with you about the casting a net for pitchers, but I think the same can be said about position players. I can name 4 first round position players drafted in the first round that flopped for every 1 that makes it. How many of last year's draft would you consider A potential? I think most of the players that end up on the top 100 prospect lists, be it pitchers or position players, do so after a year or two in the minors. Rarely does one make it as a top prospect out of the draft.

the best consensus of A class draft talent usually goes in first 5 picks. 3 of the first 5 last yr were pos players. A lot of ppl were iffy if Strasburg would go 1st overall due to Ackley and Tate being in the draft. Pitchers are more of a gamble due to higher risks of injury/arm problems. A position player can either be a great hitter, great defensive player or both. A pitcher can only be a great pitcher....no other option (unless you're Rich Ankiel...but more often than not, pitchers converting to OFers they end up more like Napolean Robinson).