Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

[nomo17k]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

I'm not talking about say starting your swing letter high then adjusting to like knee high on a curveball. Hitters are always making subtle adjustments of centimeters or inches as they are looking the ball in.

While "following the pitch all the way" is an approach to always keep in mind the importance of pitch recognition and not swinging at everything, I don't think you can really do that minor adjustments so willingly during the swing.

After all that's why Sid Fernandez with his killer rising fastball (despite it was usually thrown in high 80s) was a dead flyball pitcher while Kevin Brown with his hard sinker was a dead groundball pitcher. Those pitches move ever so slightly off the locations hitters would anticipate from ordinary fastball. I'd guess Mariano's cutter has similar effects...

Like I said in an earlier post, real life hitters get help and tips on the pitch that gamers don't get; we can't read the spin on the ball and pitchers in the game don't tip pitches at all (every pitch is thrown with the exact same animation) so every pitcher has a great changeup because the arm motion is the same.

Hopefully down the road there will be some ways for pitchers to use slightly different arm motions for different pitches, etc. That would be really cool... adds to deception which is somewhat lacking in the pitcher delivery aspect currently...

I guess the spin is hard if not impossible to do given the small size of the ball... But the other day I thought there may be a way to make it slightly easier to recognize fastball from change-up by exaggerating the change of ball size more as the pitch comes to the plate.

Don't know if this is even reasonable or feasible in the current scheme of things, but when the ball is coming toward you it is how fast the ball size is changing that makes us perceive if the thing is coming toward/receding you and how fast... Like you watch the foul tip from the backstop on TV and your reflex tells you to move away even though the ball of course isn't popping out of TV... and the game already does this to make it easier to estimate where a fly ball would land by exaggerating (unrealistically) the size of the shadow and how that changes as the ball height changes.

Just an idea to make change-up slightly less deadly.

[Bobhead]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

I actually had this same argument elsewhere earlier this year, and I did some research and found that most hitters actually do initiate their swing before they know where they are swinging, furthermore some of the better hitters (Evan Longoria was the example given in the pages I read), adjust to pitches mid-swing.

Anyway here's some evidence for you, if what you are saying is true, and hitters cannot make major adjustments once they have "decided" to swing, then how would you explain how batters make contact on pitches outside of the strike zone?

There's literally only two possibilities: 1) The hitter already correctly recognized the location of the pitch, and even though he is aware it is outside the zone, he commits to swinging anyway. 2) He does not realize the location of the pitch when he first commits to swinging, and reads the pitch location as he is beginning his swing.

Option #1 is clearly illogical. Why would a batter intentionally decide to swing at a pitch if they are already aware that the pitch is not in the strike zone? That leaves only option #2. I'm not interested in looking up all the stuff I had already looked up last time, but I ensure you, google "mid-swing pitch adjustments," or just play a game of baseball yourself. Be conscious of how you are swinging, and you will realize that 99% of the time, when you first commit to swinging, the only thing you've established is the timing of the pitch, if that.

And finally, I'm not requesting the ability to move the PCI up until contact is made. There is a clear delay between the time you press the swing button, and when the batter actually starts to bring his arms around. I just feel that PCI control should be retained during this window.

Edit: Here's one of the pages I had originally found: http://www.baseball-intellect.com/th...evan-longoria/
The article clearly states that Longoria is above-average with regards to this ability - they cite his ability to adjust literally "mid" swing. Nonetheless, one can assume that most hitters are still capable of making adjustments after committing to their swing.

[nomo17k]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

And finally, I'm not requesting the ability to move the PCI up until contact is made. There is a clear delay between the time you press the swing button, and when the batter actually starts to bring his arms around. I just feel that PCI control should be retained during this window.

I think the confusion arises because it's understandably unclear what really constitutes the initiation of a swing... By this if you include the take-back time, yes I totally agree that you can make such major adjustments (and hence my comment that this could be implemented with the current analog hitting scheme). And of course that's why hitters can check swing successfully when you have enough time to correct your initial guess. On the other hand, what I meant by "after a swing" and "mid swing" is when you are fully in the mode to transfer your body torque into the bat movement. There, your primary concern is to accelerate the bat speed as much as you can while aiming the sweet spot at where you already decided to go for.

So maybe PCI should still be free to move a tiny bit after you press the button... probably during the brief window in which you can still check swing.

Also, I don't think human minds/reflex are so perfect that you can clearly distinguish a ball from strike on a borderline pitche every time... Gymnasts and figure skaters keep making the same mistakes even after thousands of hours of practice you know... and they probably don't need as much precision as hitting a tiny ball with a stick...

[Vashyron.]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

I actually had this same argument elsewhere earlier this year, and I did some research and found that most hitters actually do initiate their swing before they know where they are swinging, furthermore some of the better hitters (Evan Longoria was the example given in the pages I read), adjust to pitches mid-swing.

Anyway here's some evidence for you, if what you are saying is true, and hitters cannot make major adjustments once they have "decided" to swing, then how would you explain how batters make contact on pitches outside of the strike zone?

There's literally only two possibilities: 1) The hitter already correctly recognized the location of the pitch, and even though he is aware it is outside the zone, he commits to swinging anyway. 2) He does not realize the location of the pitch when he first commits to swinging, and reads the pitch location as he is beginning his swing.

Option #1 is clearly illogical. Why would a batter intentionally decide to swing at a pitch if they are already aware that the pitch is not in the strike zone? That leaves only option #2. I'm not interested in looking up all the stuff I had already looked up last time, but I ensure you, google "mid-swing pitch adjustments," or just play a game of baseball yourself. Be conscious of how you are swinging, and you will realize that 99% of the time, when you first commit to swinging, the only thing you've established is the timing of the pitch, if that.

And finally, I'm not requesting the ability to move the PCI up until contact is made. There is a clear delay between the time you press the swing button, and when the batter actually starts to bring his arms around. I just feel that PCI control should be retained during this window.

Edit: Here's one of the pages I had originally found: http://www.baseball-intellect.com/th...evan-longoria/
The article clearly states that Longoria is above-average with regards to this ability - they cite his ability to adjust literally "mid" swing. Nonetheless, one can assume that most hitters are still capable of making adjustments after committing to their swing.

I wasn't sure of the extent of how much of an adjustment you can make during a swing. I just know it would be really hard to hit if hitters were locked into a location when they initiated their swing. I would think the major adjustments would result in just weak fouls or very soft hits at best. Like when a batter is chasing an outside slider, his swing does change a lot and it's a real weak swing as he's just trying to make contact. I was mainly talking about adjustments a hitter can make that results in him still being able to put a good swing on the ball. I would not want the game giving my player a weak swing because I moved the PCI too much.

And, I agree with being able to move the PCI during that window you described.

So maybe PCI should still be free to move a tiny bit after you press the button... probably during the brief window in which you can still check swing.

Agree

[Vashyron.]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

Getting back to the ridiculous opposite power this game has. Here's 3 videos showing that opposite field power on INSIDE pitches is completely unrealistic. Two of the videos feature opposite field HRs on inside pitches and one double, each pitch is just hit with way too much authority for the type of swing. And, this all took place in my last 2 games.

<iframe width="420" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/RenH8TZp3Hg" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="420" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/c35lyH0AGQM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

<iframe width="420" height="345" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/N3OWWVhDHFc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[nomo17k]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

Edit: Here's one of the pages I had originally found: http://www.baseball-intellect.com/th...evan-longoria/
The article clearly states that Longoria is above-average with regards to this ability - they cite his ability to adjust literally "mid" swing. Nonetheless, one can assume that most hitters are still capable of making adjustments after committing to their swing.

The article and the movies are interesting but I don't really see how Longoria is adjusting in mid swing from the movies though... looks more like semantic issues. The way I see it is that given his great bat speed, he affords to wait for a pitch a bit longer to better recognize the pitch type so he can still have a very decent swing even when he's fooled a bit (like the one movie in which he goes for a breaking pitch apparently waiting for faster stuff). If you take out just the swing part (starting just when he really starts accelerating the bat), he still has a smooth swing... nothing wobbly which could indicate he adjusts in mid swing.

But then again, it is perhaps still semantics we're arguing over because I tend to use the word "commit" for when the batter really accelerates the bat and not when he can still check swing.

[Two Seamer]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

Great thread. Just echoing the desire for hitter-specific attributes that translate to pull power and ability to go the other away. Knowing very little about how the programming works, I wonder if it's as simple as pull-contact and pull-oppo (pull-power and oppo-power).

In the same vein, I think it would phenomenal if pitchers were endowed with attributes that were handedness-specific. Almost every pitcher in baseball has a significant split against different or same-handed batters.

Endowing e.g. a LOOGY with attributes based on his overall numbers when his overall numbers are derived only from performance against lefties is kind of a major gap in the game. Ideally, LOOGYs should get shelled by right-handed hitters in the game just as they would in real life.

Again, I don't know enough about how the programming works to know if this is feasible or not. But I know it would be an awesome step forward.

[Bobhead]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

In the same vein, I think it would phenomenal if pitchers were endowed with attributes that were handedness-specific. Almost every pitcher in baseball has a significant split against different or same-handed batters.

Careful not to fall into this trap. Just because a pitcher has a significant split, does not mean there is a legitimate cause for the split. Let's say you decide to survey and record the weather (sun/rain/whatever) for 4 months, and then you divided a table up by the day of the week, and charted your results. The odds of the sunshine days in this 4 month period, all being evenly distributed across each and every day of the week, are extremely remote.

The far more likely scenario is that you end up with some random day of the week that has way more sunshine than any other day. Why? Obviously there is no connection between day of the week and the weather, since the latter existed centuries before the former. If you repeat the experiment, you will probably get the same findings, only with a different "most common" day.

It's possible these pitchers are experiencing the same thing. I'm sure some of them have reasons for being able to dominate one side more than the other, but in most cases, if the split is out of the ordinary, it is most likely just ordinary.

[nomo17k]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

Don't know if I'm allowed to cite from another web site but from FanGraphs:

Lefty-Righty Splits

• •Obviously, we all know that batters typically do worse when facing a same-handed pitcher (e.g. a lefty batter facing a lefty pitcher). However, we can’t make any overarching statements about how much batters struggle against same-handed pitcher; the size of a lefty/righty platoon split varies from batter to batter.

• •The same can be said for pitchers: while pitchers are normally better against same-handed batters, the size of a pitcher’s platoon split varies from pitcher to pitcher.

• •Batters don’t have their platoon splits stabilize until at least 1,000 plate appearances against each hand (around 2,000 for right-handed batters), while pitchers have their platoon splits stabilize much faster (500-700 plate appearances against both hands).

Batted Ball Splits

• •If a pitcher has an extreme batted ball profile – as in, they allow a high percentage of flyballs or groundballs – they will be more effective against batters that have a similar batted ball profile. In other words, if you put Tim Hudson (career 59% groundball rate) into a game against Johnny Gomes (career 51% flyball rate), I wouldn’t expect it to go well. Hudson would be more likely to succeed against someone like Derek Jeter, who has a career 57% groundball rate.

• •Batted ball splits can have just as large an impact on a matchup as lefty-righty splits, but they don’t come into play as often because most hitters and pitchers have a neutral batted ball profile.

• •Certain batted ball types are more likely to fall for hits than others. In 2010, line drives fell for hits 72% of the time, groundballs fell for hits 23% of the time, and flyballs went for hits 14% of the time. However, those percentages are based off BABIP, which excludes homeruns from its calculation; if you include homeruns, the flyball percentage bounces up to 21% of the time.

Pitch Splits

• •There has been lots of work done over the last couple years to determine if certain pitches are more effective against same-hand or opposite-hand batters. The general rule of thumb is that pitches that move horizontally (e.g. sliders) work best against same-handed hitters, while pitches that move vertically (e.g. curves, changeups) are most effective against opposite-handed hitters.

• •For a more complete list, here’s what I’ve been able to find over at Baseball Analysts and The Hardball Times:

Four-seam fastballs: Small platoon
Two-seam fastballs: Large platoon
Cutter: None
Sinkers: Medium platoon
Sliders: Large platoon
Changeups: Small reverse-platoon
Curveballs: Small reverse-platoon

• •In other words, pitchers should try and attack same-handed hitters with stuff like sliders, sinkers, and two-seam fastballs, while they should use changeups, curveballs, and cutters against opposite-handed batters. These are sweeping generalizations, though, and the optimal breakdown may vary depending on a pitcher’s movement and pitch repertoire.

Caveats:

• •Small Sample Size - Whenever trying to draw a conclusion about a player’s talent, large samples are always better than small. See the Sample Size page for exact information on how large of a sample is good enough, but some statistics don’t provide predictive value even after a full season. And when you look at splits, you’re almost always looking at small samples. To avoid this, look at a player’s career splits and ignore anything with less than 500-1000 ABs.

• •Regression to the Mean - Say a .350 wOBA player has a big lefty-righty split, something like .300 lefty wOBA / .360 righty wOBA. Going forward, should you expect their true talent level against lefties to be .300 wOBA or .350 wOBA? The correct answer is somewhere in the middle, depending how large a sample you’re using. If it’s a large sample (~1000 ABs versus lefties), you can expect their talent level to be somewhere in the .310-.320 wOBA range. If it’s a small sample, though, you have to expect that their talent level is closer to their career numbers than their split numbers, so maybe something in the .340-.350 range. To determine what a player’s regressed splits are, you can download a calculator from Another Cubs Blog.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/ind...nciples/split/

[Two Seamer]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

Careful not to fall into this trap. Just because a pitcher has a significant split, does not mean there is a legitimate cause for the split.

Sure. But in many cases there is a legitimate cause. This amounts to a sample size warning that's applicable to all of the attributes already in the game. The stabilization points vary, but the phenomenon is real. Most relievers and most starters have persistent splits. Your elite setup-men, closers, and front-end starters are the guys with a proven ability to get everybody out.

Do you know of a good reason to omit them altogether as opposed to regressing adequate samples (3-4 years)? It seems to me it would really enhance the game.

[cardinalbird5]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

Something needs to be done to make a distinction between pull hitters and spray hitters, as well as guys with or without power to the opposite field.

The latter issue is the more significant one. It's too easy to go deep the other way while hitting, and while pitching it takes away from the strategy. You should be able to pitch away to most guys without having to worry about giving up an opposite field HR.

Off the top of my head I think a good addition might be to add two hitter attributes: 1. contact to the opposite field, and 2. power to the opposite field. Just like how they have splits for versus left and right, just add one underneath for opposite field that would cover the opposite field gap to the opposite field foul line.

So for power hitters who mainly pull all their HRs, their "power to the opposite field" would be low, and when you're up at the plate with that hitter you'd want to try to pull everything when trying to go deep. And then some guys might be good spray hitters with some pull power, so they'd have a high "contact to the opposite field" but slightly lower "power to the opposite field" so as to better represent their true ability.

Making a distinction between these types of hitters would both look and feel a lot more realistic.

I think people look too much into the strike zone rather than where the batter is actually standing in the batter's box. David Freese stands a good distance off the plate and is actually a great inside (according to the strike zone) hitter and takes alot of them to opposite field. Theoretically a hitter like this should be good at hitting the outside pitches, but this is not always the case. The opposite can happen too. The dead pull hitters who jam the plate can easily pull a pitch away (once again on the strike zone) for a HR.

I agree though that there should be an attribute for this. But then how are homeruns up the middle accounted for? Or to RC? I have seen some pull hitters who have hit ugly HR's to opposite field, just because they are so strong. It happens, but I wonder if the game has it built in where balls to opposite field naturally don't get hit as hard as pitches that are pulled do.

[HouseKeepinItReal]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

The Hot and Cold Zones + spray charts + the current attribute system combined are all good enough for me.

In addition, the wind usually determines which of my players will be able to hit the ball the opposite field.

I am not sure why people want such definitive and specific ratings. I also love the rating system. A B C D F

F is fail

D is Decent

C is Consistent

B is among the Best

A is All-star



The reason I like this system is simply because it leaves the game open for possibilities. Rarely am I disappointed in how this game plays out. I also believe your pitch selection as well swing influence combined with all of the above help determine where the ball can be hit.

Has anyone ever noticed how good the physics are in this game? I notice that if the wind is blowing in that if i try swinging up on all my pitches they just hang up there for an easy fly out but if i cut down on my swing it puts back spin and results in hard line drives and sometimes home runs if timed correctly. especially on fastballs with movement

what we need is fielder collisions and more hits into no man's land and fielder miscommunication errors with tons of animations.

[Perfect Zero]

Re: Pull hitters, spray hitters, and power to the opposite field

Just chiming in to say that I'm really enjoying the conversation here. I started thinking about this in August when I had a game in which Moreland and Hamilton hit opposite field home runs.