When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

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  • seanjeezy
    The Future
    • Aug 2009
    • 3347

    #16
    Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

    Originally posted by jmik58
    I'd say that's the definition of a guy who deserves a near maxed-out "clutch" rating."
    I'm glad you pointed this out, even the explanation that fangraphs gives isn't too clear - they are using win expectancy in relation to the league average, it probably works the same way WAR does in that it is accumulated over time i.e. a guy who only plays a little more than half a season cannot rack up 7 WAR

    If you want to go by AVG with runners in scoring position, Michael Young's was .377, V-Mart's was .394, Miguel Cabrera's was .388, Votto's was .383, etc.

    With RISP/2 outs:
    Cabrera - .382
    V-Mart - .375
    Jhonny Peralta - .380
    Ellsbury - .400
    CarGo - .468
    Jemille Weeks - .391


    Wouldn't these guys be more deserving than Freese of a 99 rating?
    Last edited by seanjeezy; 03-21-2012, 06:25 PM.
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    • bluealtoid
      Rookie
      • Jan 2008
      • 158

      #17
      Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

      According to ESPN: Freese's game most clutch in Series history

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      • nomo17k
        Permanently Banned
        • Feb 2011
        • 5735

        #18
        Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

        Originally posted by bluealtoid
        Thing about stats used like this is that it only tells about what already happened, and not necessarily what will happen given the same situation in future.

        Can David Freese repeat his performance consistently, if he is put in similar situations in future over and over?

        "Probably not" is the most likely answer.
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        • seanjeezy
          The Future
          • Aug 2009
          • 3347

          #19
          Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

          Originally posted by bluealtoid
          How does one game impact a three year weighted average though? In 2011, Freese had 99 AB with RISP and 44 with RISP/2 outs

          His weighted AVG with RISP is .344, Miguel Cabrera's is .365, in a much larger sample size as well (181 AB vs 445 AB)

          Anybody know Miggy's clutch rating in the game?
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          • dkrause1971
            All Star
            • Aug 2005
            • 5176

            #20
            Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

            Originally posted by seanjeezy
            How does one game impact a three year weighted average though? In 2011, Freese had 99 AB with RISP and 44 with RISP/2 outs

            His weighted AVG with RISP is .344, Miguel Cabrera's is .365, in a much larger sample size as well (181 AB vs 445 AB)

            Anybody know Miggy's clutch rating in the game?
            If i am reading this correctly, clutch is a modifier of hitting ratings. So I'll use fictional numbers so i don't have to look up real ones.

            Lets say Joey Votto average is .330 and RISP is .360. David Freese average is .260 and a RISP of .310. Votto is only hitting .030 over his hitting ratings where Freese is hitting .050 over his. Freese modifier should be higher than Votto. Thus the modifier for clutch would need to be higher for Freese than Votto.

            Clutch is modifying their regular hitting ratings. Clutch is not in a vacuum of highest RISP guy should be highest overall.
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            • bukktown
              MVP
              • Jan 2007
              • 3257

              #21
              Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

              So it is impossible to be clutch with nobody on base?

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              • jmik58
                Staff Writer
                • Jan 2008
                • 2401

                #22
                Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                Nomo17K made multiple quality posts after my last one and I don't really want to clutter my response with all of your statements so I'll try and hit the main points that stuck out to me from memory.

                I don't dispute that Freese has done his work under a small sample size. But you have to work with what you have. While the difference in "clutch" situations may not be "statistically significant" ... neither is the impact of a clutch rating in a video game. Ramone said it himself, it's not significant. It's a very minor bump to ratings in very specific situations and it doesn't guarantee anything. So I think you're right (about statistical significance) and it doesn't really matter (because the clutch rating isn't significant). Just like I think I'm right about Freese deserving the clutch rating, but it doesn't really matter (in regard to statistical significance).

                Also, you either mentioned or I deduced from your comments that clutch is really an after-the-fact assessment tool; not a prediction devise. I see where you're coming from in that instance and I compare it to something like a */9 rating for pitchers in video games. Both are only reliable for telling you what has already happened. A pitcher's K/9 rating doesn't guarantee a certain number of strikes per inning. His various skills and attributes related to pitching make that impact. The */9 rating just reflects that...and one could speculate that such ratings apply a slight modifying adjustment to try and keep the video game numbers closely aligned to what the real life version of the player has established he can do.

                Originally posted by dkrause1971
                If i am reading this correctly, clutch is a modifier of hitting ratings. So I'll use fictional numbers so i don't have to look up real ones.

                Lets say Joey Votto average is .330 and RISP is .360. David Freese average is .260 and a RISP of .310. Votto is only hitting .030 over his hitting ratings where Freese is hitting .050 over his. Freese modifier should be higher than Votto. Thus the modifier for clutch would need to be higher for Freese than Votto.

                Clutch is modifying their regular hitting ratings. Clutch is not in a vacuum of highest RISP guy should be highest overall.
                And this is what I mean by what I typed at the start of my response. To me, I see clutch as a very light modifier...and I repeat...it does not guarantee results; only improves the chances.

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                • cardinalbird5
                  MVP
                  • Jul 2006
                  • 2814

                  #23
                  Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                  Originally posted by ZouDave
                  Bobby Thomson
                  Bill Mazeroski
                  Carlton Fisk
                  Kirby Puckett
                  Joe Carter
                  George Vukovich
                  Kirk Gibson
                  Todd Pratt
                  Chris Chambliss
                  Aaron Boone


                  They'd all like a word with you about history.
                  Freese was down to the last strike of being eliminated against one of the top closers. I am pretty sure he was 1 of 2 players to only do this.

                  Aaron Boone LOL Seriously wasn't the game tied?

                  I'll give you Joe Carter though.
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                  • cardinalbird5
                    MVP
                    • Jul 2006
                    • 2814

                    #24
                    Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                    Originally posted by seanjeezy
                    Not trying to be a jerk or anything, but how does the result of one game determine how clutch a player is? I know, I know, biggest stage, 1 strike away, etc.

                    What about the regular season though? according to Fangraphs, Freese was below average in clutch situations.

                    Here's Fangraphs' explaination for their clutch rating

                    According to this chart, Bobby Abreu was the most clutch player in baseball last year

                    Again, this probably sounds douchey and whiney, but honestly I'm not trying to be either lol
                    I really have never believed in clutch players. Most of the time the player was already good and performed just as well in clutch situations. I believe a player can choke during crunch time, but I don't believe they become a way better player. So basically the players that don't ever choke and keep calm=clutch to me.

                    David Freese doesn't have much of a sample size to go off and I don't even know what the clutch rating goes by. The final number may be an objective output, but what goes into these formulas are highly subjective as is the whole term "clutch" in general.

                    I have checked out Freese's number with RISP and with 2 outs. He had an OPS of 1.019 with RISP with 2 outs, .915 with RISP, .848 with runners on, .734 with no one on. He has a .980 OPS with men on 2 outs, while he has a .803 with no one and 0 outs and .690 with no one with 1 or 2 outs.

                    Plus he hit nearly .400 in the playoffs with 19 RBI's and had some of the most clutch hits in playoff history.

                    Like I said, I don't believe in clutch players really, but it is hard to say this guy hasn't been "clutch".
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                    • OSfan093
                      Rookie
                      • Mar 2011
                      • 184

                      #25
                      Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                      For Everybody citing the RISP w/2 outs stat, im pretty sure thats pointless when discussing IN-GAME clutch. If what Russell said is true and clutch only kicks in with RISP, then only avg. with RISP(the difference between this and normal avg., as Dkrause pointed out) would be relevant in figuring out in game clutch, since that is the only thing it will affect in game, avg w/RISP. there will be an overlap effect that will affect RISP w/2 out, but you that stat is also included in avg with RISP, so that is the best stat to use.

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                      • AUTiger1
                        MVP
                        • Oct 2008
                        • 2413

                        #26
                        Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                        Originally posted by jmik58
                        First off, he did say "probably" and even if he said it WAS... I think he has an argument.

                        On Bobby Thompson's hit there was one out and Willie Mays was on deck. Unless he hits into a double play it's not the end of the season. If Freese gets even one more strike, the season is over.

                        For Carlton Fisk the game was tied at the time of his home run. It forced a game seven, which makes it a huge homerun; but not with as much risk as Freese.

                        Kirby Puckett's home run was just like Fisk. It was huge, but there wasn't as much risk. The game was tied at the time and it forced a game seven.

                        Joe Carter's shot was dramatic because it ended the the world series, but there was nowhere near as much on the line as any of the previous guys.

                        For Vukovich it wasn't even a world series game and he, like Puckett and Fisk, forced another game by breaking a tie.

                        Gibson's was certainly clutch, but the dramatics were highlighted by him being injured. However, it was only game one of the world series. Not as much on the line.

                        Pratt's was a great moment as a division series clincher, but if they lost it would have just forced game 5. It wasn't even a must-win game/moment.

                        Chambliss, like others, only broke a tie game. He wasn't facing elimination or a loss, but instead broke a tie...and it was the LCS.

                        Boone's also broke a tie, but it's slightly weighted more monumental because it was game seven. However, it was just the LCS.

                        So... with all that considered, I'd say Freese has them all beat considering he executed when trailing in the game, series, and down to his last strike ... oh and then he finished off the same game with a walk-off homerun.

                        I'd say Freese takes first place for the most clutch hit(s) in MLB history.
                        And it's hard to argue with 21 or 22 rbis during the playoffs or whatever the number was. I know they have more playoffs now than ever before and up until 1969 all they had was the World Series but still. That's impressive any way you slice it. Has any other player ever won LCS and WS MVP?

                        Oh and on a different note I'm not a Cardinals fan. In fact I would put the Cardinals on my hate list, mostly because of Tony La Russa but that's another story, but I became a huge David Freese fan because of what he did in the playoffs.
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                        • jmik58
                          Staff Writer
                          • Jan 2008
                          • 2401

                          #27
                          Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                          Originally posted by OSfan093
                          For Everybody citing the RISP w/2 outs stat, im pretty sure thats pointless when discussing IN-GAME clutch. If what Russell said is true and clutch only kicks in with RISP, then only avg. with RISP(the difference between this and normal avg., as Dkrause pointed out) would be relevant in figuring out in game clutch, since that is the only thing it will affect in game, avg w/RISP. there will be an overlap effect that will affect RISP w/2 out, but you that stat is also included in avg with RISP, so that is the best stat to use.
                          I don't think people are using the RISP w/ 2 outs to make a point about how the game plays and utilizes the clutch rating. None of us who aren't working on the game have a clue how it really works. The RISP w/ 2 outs stats were more to show that Freese -- so far in his career -- has performed as well/better with 2 outs and RISP than he has in less "stressful" situations. For a second I thought you were making the point that 2 outs and RISP isn't a clutch situation compared to just RISP. At least I don't think you were saying that...

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                          • PsychoBulk
                            Hoping for change...
                            • May 2006
                            • 4191

                            #28
                            Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                            Originally posted by nomo17k

                            These ranges actually overlap each other, meaning the differences are not very statistically significant. A lot of people who study those things like this find there's no clutch ability differences among players.

                            It's a fun rating in a game, but it probably is an ability which doesn't really exist.
                            Couldnt agree more.

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                            • OSfan093
                              Rookie
                              • Mar 2011
                              • 184

                              #29
                              Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                              Originally posted by jmik58
                              I don't think people are using the RISP w/ 2 outs to make a point about how the game plays and utilizes the clutch rating. None of us who aren't working on the game have a clue how it really works. The RISP w/ 2 outs stats were more to show that Freese -- so far in his career -- has performed as well/better with 2 outs and RISP than he has in less "stressful" situations. For a second I thought you were making the point that 2 outs and RISP isn't a clutch situation compared to just RISP. At least I don't think you were saying that...
                              no, you understood me correctly. i understand the use of it for the pure baseball argument, but the OP had mentioned Freese as a 99 clutch and used that as a jumping off point. i was pointing out that the RISP w/2 outs would not come into play when determining Freese or anyone else's clutch rating in the game. now when you are speaking about real life, it certainly can be used. but if you are trying to get a barometer on real life clutch, there are a ton of stats you would need to use to get a good reading on it, and realistically it's something that needs to be witnessed, rather than analyzed. there's no question who is clutch on your favorite team because you see them all the time, and regardless of stats you just know that when the chips are down he'll come through. back in the day(early 2000s) Craig Wilson was that guy for the buccos...not a great player overall, but countless times i remember him smacking that extra inning homer, and such.

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                              • lowlander
                                Banned
                                • Mar 2012
                                • 69

                                #30
                                Re: When does the "Clutch" attribute come into play and what does it do exactly?

                                Originally posted by dkrause1971
                                If i am reading this correctly, clutch is a modifier of hitting ratings. So I'll use fictional numbers so i don't have to look up real ones.

                                Lets say Joey Votto average is .330 and RISP is .360. David Freese average is .260 and a RISP of .310. Votto is only hitting .030 over his hitting ratings where Freese is hitting .050 over his. Freese modifier should be higher than Votto. Thus the modifier for clutch would need to be higher for Freese than Votto.

                                Clutch is modifying their regular hitting ratings. Clutch is not in a vacuum of highest RISP guy should be highest overall.
                                Don't take my word for it, check it for yourself. The next time you are playing a game hit the select button then L1 and you can see how many pitches each pitcher has thrown with risp clutch activated. I think you will find it is only activated when the score is tied and a runner at second or third.

                                I've seen games when zero pitches were thrown with risp clutch activated. I believe it is a next to worthless attribute due to the infrequency with which it happens. Just my opinion.

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