2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

If I recall, there was alot of stats, links to Fangraphs and other articles unrelated to the eye issue. That's alot of backup for us.

Pretty sure that's a patently false statement. I checked, it is wrong. Everything is related to the eye issue.

I can deal with people taking sides and bending the truth (hey it's great for a player to break through at 24/25, woo hoo! Who's want a 20-y/o stud anyway?). But it's hard to debate against falsehoods...

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Pretty sure that's a patently false statement. I checked, it is wrong. Everything is related to the eye issue.

I can deal with people taking sides and bending the truth (hey it's great for a player to break through at 24/25, woo hoo! Who's want a 20-y/o stud anyway?). But it's hard to debate against falsehoods...

You're telling me...

Stop acting like just because he isn't a generational player, he can't be traded for a reliever. Ridiculous.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Mariano Rivera, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Randy Johnson, Joe Nathan, Dante Bichette (even though he may have sucked), Dave Stewart, Luis Gonzalez, Carlos Gonzalez, Sandy Koufax, Jamie Moyer, R.A. Dickey, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Dazzy Vance, Darren Oliver, Kevin Millar, Al Leiter, Nelson Cruz, Dennis Eckersly, Cliff Lee, Jayson Werth, David Ortiz, and David Cone, all late bloomers.

OK, so that's (EDIT:5) Hall of Famers? Not bad in such a short period of time.

Bert Blyleven (19), Steve Carlton (20), Dennis Eckersley (20), Tom Seaver (22), Nolan Ryan (20), Jim Palmer (19), Curt Schilling (21), Juan Marichal (22), Catfish Hunter (19), Yaz (21), Ted Williams (20), Lou Gehrig (19), Mickey Mantle (19), Willie Mays (20), Babe Ruth (19), Barry Bonds (21), A-Roid (18), Bob Feller (17), Mike Schmidt (22)

So there's a start, just by typing whatever great player entered my head into BR, I came up with this, and zero guys that debuted as 24/25 year of age. But I suppose this is too small of a sample..

And if you want to call Eckersley a "late bloomer" when he pitched 175+ IP at age 20 with 13-7 and a 2.60 ERA, 7.3 K/9 before K's were really in demand, that's your call I guess.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

OK, so that's 3 Hall of Famers

Why are you ignoring what I'm saying?

[G3no_11]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

OK, so that's (EDIT:5) Hall of Famers? Not bad in such a short period of time.

So there's a start, just by typing whatever great player entered my head into BR, I came up with this, and zero guys that debuted as 24/25 year of age. But I suppose this is too small of a sample..

No, I suppose that we aren't saying Olt is going to be a HOF. We were simply proving that there are plenty of very good players that debut around 24-25.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

OK, so I was talking about it being best for a player to break in at 19-22. This is an argument more about age than anything. No one expects Olt to be a player of this caliber. But, someone, I think it was G3no actually took direct aim at my "age of debut" argument, saying it doesn't matter when players matriculate. And I am defending it as factual--at least in an empirical sense.

This is relevant in the sense that Olt is in fact not a generational player and not close. If you look at most players who break in at 24/25, they don't have long and productive careers, with some exceptions.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

So how is that relevant to the fact (which you've ignored) that Papelbon is an overly expensive reliever who's value is lesser than that of Olt?

The average WAR for last year was 2.9 fWAR. Some unnotable players who hovered around that;

Spoiler

Danny Espinosa
Josh Willingham
Andre Ethier
Alberto Callaspo
Alejandro De Aza
Norichika Aoki
Coco Crisp

Some unnotable players who out WAR'd Papelbon:

Spoiler

Zack Cozart
Cameron Maybin
Jamey Carroll (LOL)
Kendrys Morales
Ryan Doumit
Jason Kuble
Yunel Escobar

So if Mike Olt can outperform any of those players, of even be one of the fairly average players I listed, he'll be more valuable than Papelbon. Why, though?

Because 70 IP isn't a large impact. A stellar relief season is 1.0 fWAR. Relievers do not make a large enough impact, especially not at $15m per, to out-value even some fairly average/bad players.

[Bard]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

What are your guys' opinions on a Billy Hamilton trade for a top tier 3B?

Haven't been following baseball like i used to this year and last but i know he is one of their top ones but doesn't hit too well.

[mgcst5]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Pretty great debate going on here.

If I may chime in.

All initial reports on Olt's defense have been very positive. He isn't expected to be a game changer but he won't hurt you out there. A site that I have come to trust is Baseballprospectnation, while some will question the validity of there reports (as with any site) I tend to agree with a lot of there opinions http://baseballprospectnation.com/20...t-mike-olt-3b/
and they happen to label his glove as a plus.

Additionally, his bat, while not spectacular, definitely plays, especially in a hitters park (Philly would be a good desitination and Texas is even better) He is projected around 25 Homeruns in a neutral environment.

His age is far from irrelevant but and at 24 he probably doesn't have an immensely high ceiling but that shouldn't hurt his value too much considering he still profiles pretty well at 3rd.

Concerning Pap, AC is right, as a reliever (and an expensive one) he doesn't offer as much value, not nonexistent, but not as much as Olt.

One more thing relating to Olt's age, as previously said his ceiling isn't super high but not every "top" prospect needs to be a star. There is an incredible amount of value coming from the support players that put up stats in the middle tier of good players, for example Zobrist has been second in the league in WAR over the last several years, I am not a strong supporter of Sabermetrics for reasons I don't feel like getting into, but it definitely shows how a support player can provide a ton of value instead of a star.

If you disagree please do so respectfully because I am just trying to be a part of this debate.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

What are your guys' opinions on a Billy Hamilton trade for a top tier 3B?

Haven't been following baseball like i used to this year and last but i know he is one of their top ones but doesn't hit too well.

Yeah, I've noticed you posting less in baseball parts. Post more! Lol

Hamilton is quite valuable, who'd you have in mind?

If I may chime in.

Very nice post.

[Bard]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Yeah, I've noticed you posting less in baseball parts. Post more! Lol

Haha i definitely will once i get some free time.

Well in the Show the CPU came up with the idea of a

Robert Stephenson
Billy Hamilton
Todd Frazier

For

David Wright

deal. Overpay i think, but i think it has potential.

[mgcst5]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Very nice post.

While I acknowledge your bias since I am leaning more to your side I truly appreciate it.

[AC]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Haha i definitely will once i get some free time.

Well in the Show the CPU came up with the idea of a

Robert Stephenson
Billy Hamilton
Todd Frazier

For

David Wright

deal. Overpay i think, but i think it has potential.

Overpay but really unrealistic.

Chase Headley for that package sounds fine, though. Or Hamilton + Cingrani, depending on their potentials.

While I acknowledge your bias since I am leaning more to your side I truly appreciate it.

Eh, it was at least partially biased, but the main reason I liked it was that you posted facts and backed up your thoughts.

[Bard]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Overpay but really unrealistic.

Chase Headley for that package sounds fine, though. Or Hamilton + Cingrani, depending on their potentials.









Eh, it was at least partially biased, but the main reason I liked it was that you posted facts and backed up your thoughts.

Hamilton + Ceingrani for Headley sounds good. I was wondering about Wright, but true it would be unrealistic with his new extension now that i am thinking haha.

EDIT: One more before i play another game. Kyle Crick for Alex Gordon... .270/12HR/59 want more stats just ask

[mgcst5]

Re: 2013 The Show Official Trade Discussion Thread

Haha i definitely will once i get some free time.

Well in the Show the CPU came up with the idea of a

Robert Stephenson
Billy Hamilton
Todd Frazier

For

David Wright

deal. Overpay i think, but i think it has potential.

Good value, but realism wise I don't see Wright traded after the extension. Even if the Mets are out terrible. Ignoring this, I do think it has potential because the Reds need a right handed power bat