Draft anomaly or the new normal?

[GreenGlen]

Re: Draft anomaly or the new normal?

So when you pick the "A" potential guy in round one do you send him right to AAA?

No.


I'm testing manual training... will get back to you on what happens with A potential players.

[beauforsure]

Re: Draft anomaly or the new normal?

No.


I'm testing manual training... will get back to you on what happens with A potential players.

i also had a very good draft considering the potential part of it. my first rounder at pick 2 , had a 72 ovr and a 93 pot. he was proj in 2014. the others were in the 60-40's with 90's pot. i think the ETA is your thing. if a guy is proj in 2020 , chances are he wont make it to the majors before that , decreasing the "A" pot.

update - i just looked at those rookies i drafted - pick #2 - 75 - A Top 50 Prospect age - 18

my late round pick like round 5 or so - 45 - A age 20

So ETA is the bottom line

[mmorg]

Re: Draft anomaly or the new normal?

So how does the player potential tie into the player's individual attribute potential? Will the A potential just mean that they will progress to their attribute's potential faster? Or is it to show that they might progress over their attribute's potential for a while during their prime?

[seanbon15]

Re: Draft anomaly or the new normal?

One of the things I read is that they decreased the peak for players this year. So in previous years, a lot of guys were in their 30s and still increasing by leaps and bounds. This year its more normal and set to real MLB levels. So a peak development age is somewhere from 26-28. I wonder how that tests, though.

[jnavarro]

Re: Draft anomaly or the new normal?

[quote=beauforsure;2044784798

So ETA is the bottom line[/quote]

I think this is it. It doesn't matter if he has A potential if his ETA is ten years away and he is 22. He will never get there.

[BBallcoach]

Didn't they say potential isn't set in stone? Where a guy is an A potential and can drop to a B and such... But as said I think eta is what is more important.

[vegaas]

Re: Draft anomaly or the new normal?

Potential can change, I have had two B's jump to A's and one B drop to C.

[Kalkano]

Re: Draft anomaly or the new normal?

I haven't played franchise, yet. But, it sounds to me like you need to take multiple factors into account: potential, eta, age, age at eta (will he be done progressing by the time he reaches the majors).

[cardinal511]

Re: Draft anomaly or the new normal?

I'm starting my 4th season as the Yankees and have seen some of the progressions of my prospects from the draft. In year 1 I drafted 8 players all with A potentials. Here's how they've broken down.
-2 great starters/ future stars (92 and 88 overall)
-2 MLB contributors who's potentials have gone down to B's (83 and 81)
-3 Contributors who's future is still in question, all still A potentials. 1 is a 76 and is starting at SS due to lack of depth (Jeter is a 60 overall now). The other two are in the 60's and are backups.
-1 player who I consider a bust. Low overall and potential of a C.
My players have grown an average of 25 overall in their 2 years with my organization. The stars have grown faster, the contributors average, and the questionable players slightly lower. All have beaten their ETA's easily.

My 2nd year draft didn't go as well as the first. I have one prospect (67) who's on the MLB bench, but the rest look like potential busts with overall still in the low 50's or worse. They might just take longer to develop.

In year 3 I drafted 3 starting pitchers that I am high on right now. They're already all mid 60's after Spring training only.

[BBallcoach]

I also noticed if your minors team does well the players potential increases. My AA team won the AA title and now most of the prospects are Bs when most were C's