Unrealistic stats continuing

[nomo17k]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

I only "bring it up" in reply to those who question it, you know, like in replying. I guess you can say it's like having an opinion and responding to those who "bring up" the opposite view.

People are not really questioning anything. You are just forming an opinion about supposed "anomaly" which really isn't unusual, in view of general principles of statistics and probability. Some people don't appreciate that, since there is real issue to discuss here in terms of player progression.... and you are basically diverting the focus from that real issue.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

People are not really questioning anything. You are just forming an opinion about supposed "anomaly" which really isn't unusual, in view of general principles of statistics and probability. Some people don't appreciate that, since there is real issue to discuss here in terms of player progression.... and you are basically diverting the focus from that real issue.

Well, the title of this thread is "unrealistic stats continuing." With that in mind, I brought up Kimbrel and Colvin as seen in my season. We simply don't agree on Kimbrel, but I assume you agree on Colvin and his 8 assists in June.

[nomo17k]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Well, the title of this thread is "unrealistic stats continuing." With that in mind, I brought up Kimbrel and Colvin as seen in my season. We simply don't agree on Kimbrel, but I assume you agree on Colvin and his 8 assists in June.

Well, pope's post basically says why what you are claiming is not unusual at all... we can of course discuss why in detail, but you already have your mind set in claiming Kimbrel and Colvin, just two examples after only a couple months of playing time, is necessary to claim the sim engine is unrealistic, right? It really is fruitless to discuss anything under that premise, don't you think?

I invites you to look at Dennis Eckersley's (I'm just bringing him up since he's one of the best in his era) ERAs after he converted himself into a closer (from baseball-reference.com):

Year                      Age            Tm            Lg   W   L  W-L%  ERA    G  GS  GF  CG SHO  SV     IP    H    R   ER  HR  BB IBB   SO HBP BK WP    BF ERA+  WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB       Awards
1987                       32           OAK            AL   6   8  .429 3.03   54   2  33   0   0  16  115.2   99   41   39  11  17   3  113   3  0  1   460  137 1.003  7.7  0.9  1.3  8.8               6.65
1988                       33           OAK            AL   4   2  .667 2.35   60   0  53   0   0  45   72.2   52   20   19   5  11   2   70   1  2  0   279  163 0.867  6.4  0.6  1.4  8.7  6.36 ASCYA-2MVP-5
1989                       34           OAK            AL   4   0 1.000 1.56   51   0  46   0   0  33   57.2   32   10   10   5   3   0   55   1  0  0   206  239 0.607  5.0  0.8  0.5  8.6 18.33   CYA-6MVP-5
1990                       35           OAK            AL   4   2  .667 0.61   63   0  61   0   0  48   73.1   41    9    5   2   4   1   73   0  0  0   262  603 0.614  5.0  0.2  0.5  9.0 18.25 ASCYA-5MVP-6
1991                       36           OAK            AL   5   4  .556 2.96   67   0  59   0   0  43   76.0   60   26   25  11   9   3   87   1  0  1   299  130 0.908  7.1  1.3  1.1 10.3  9.67           AS
1992                       37           OAK            AL   7   1  .875 1.91   69   0  65   0   0  51   80.0   62   17   17   5  11   6   93   1  0  0   309  195 0.913  7.0  0.6  1.2 10.5  8.45 ASCYA-1MVP-1
1993                       38           OAK            AL   2   4  .333 4.16   64   0  52   0   0  36   67.0   67   32   31   7  13   4   80   2  0  0   276   98 1.194  9.0  0.9  1.7 10.7               6.15
1994                       39           OAK            AL   5   4  .556 4.26   45   0  39   0   0  19   44.1   49   26   21   5  13   2   47   1  0  0   193  105 1.398  9.9  1.0  2.6  9.5               3.62
1995                       40           OAK            AL   4   6  .400 4.83   52   0  48   0   0  29   50.1   53   29   27   5  11   0   40   1  0  0   212   90 1.272  9.5  0.9  2.0  7.2               3.64
1996                       41           STL            NL   0   6  .000 3.30   63   0  53   0   0  30   60.0   65   26   22   8   6   2   49   4  0  0   251  127 1.183  9.8  1.2  0.9  7.4               8.17
1997                       42           STL            NL   1   5  .167 3.91   57   0  47   0   0  36   53.0   49   24   23   9   8   0   45   2  0  2   218  107 1.075  8.3  1.5  1.4  7.6               5.63
1998                       43           BOS            AL   4   1  .800 4.76   50   0  13   0   0   1   39.2   46   21   21   6   8   3   22   2  0  0   171   99 1.361 10.

Like how his ERAs fluctuated between 0.61 (!!) and 4.83 season to season? It's not uncommon to see this, more so for relievers since their playing opportunities are limited, so the overall numbers are always skewed by one or two great (or poor for that matter) performance.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

I am not interested in Eckersley or Venters. Colvin played as an OF and had 8 assists first week in June, and that, in my opinion, is unrealistic. There are more "issues" but I'll keep them to my lonesome self, don't want to keep getting you guys so upset.

[bkrich83]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

So Craig Kimbrel is simply incapble of ever at any point in any season having an ERA over 4? Ever? Really? Am I the only one that finds the folly in this?

I swear some of you guys are going to hurt yourselves when reaching so far and hard to find flaws.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

So Craig Kimbrel is simply incapble of ever at any point in any season having an ERA over 4? Ever? Really? Am I the only one that finds the folly in this?

I swear some of you guys are going to hurt yourselves when reaching so far and hard to find flaws.

Not in 2013. Hey, if it happens in 2013, then you can say whatever. As long as he's healthy in 2013, I don't believe his ERA will be over 4.

Just my opinion.

Colvin playing as an OF will not have 8 assists in June of any year, just my opinion.

[nomo17k]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

I am not interested in Eckersley or Venters. Colvin played as an OF and had 8 assists first week in June, and that, in my opinion, is unrealistic. There are more "issues" but I'll keep them to my lonesome self, don't want to keep getting you guys so upset.

My point is not shut you up or anything. You just never seem to try to get what we are saying, meaning, with limited playing opportunities those baseball stats are subject to greater noise due to natural variation (even with a fair dice, you don't always get one of the six faces equally if you roll it only a several times).

And what you said earlier really doesn't make sense as well. You dismissed my Trout example by saying Trout is irrelevant since he's still unproven since he did it as a rookie, but Kimbrel has more of a track record... Kimbrel actually has pitched only 170 IPs or so at the MLB level, so that's not even a year worth of playing opportunity if he were (good enough to be) a starting pitcher, whereas Trout pretty much played a full season as a regular. That's why your examples are not getting much traction.

[bkrich83]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Not in 2013. Hey, if it happens in 2013, then you can say whatever. As long as he's healthy in 2013, I don't believe his ERA will be over 4.

Just my opinion.

Colvin playing as an OF will not have 8 assists in June of any year, just my opinion.

Based on what? So you're essentially saying it's impossible for either of those things to happen based on your opinion, and based on that, there's an issue with the game?

That's seems logical to you?

[Taffin]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

You guys are wasting your time and valuable brain cells trying to convince him. Nobody seems to agree with him, but he's made up his mind and won't change it, regardless of the strength of your arguments. I suggest we all move back to the original topic.

[BatsareBugs]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

You argue that Kimbrel has never had an ERA over 4 in going into June in any season, yeah, he's only pitched how many seasons so that makes a sim game's generated stat "unrealistic"?

Yet you somehow skipped over my post that pointed out that even the greatest closer ever had season where he had just that.

Here it is again:

I'm pretty sure an ERA around 4 for half a season is not an anomaly for some closers, even those who are ridiculously consistent. Hell, at the end of June in 2007, Mariano Rivera had 11 saves, 2 blown saves, and an ERA of 3.98. Entering June his ERA was well north of 5.

Waiting for a "Mariano Rivera is not Craig Kimbrel, therefore irrelevant" response.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Based on what? So you're essentially saying it's impossible for either of those things to happen based on your opinion, and based on that, there's an issue with the game?

That's seems logical to you?

Yes. The way you talk, there could never be unrealistic stats.

Yes, I say Tyler Colvin playing the OF will never have 8 assists in first week of June of any year. I base that on his ability now and forever. How many outfielders do you know who have had 8 assists in less than 60 games? Would you like to name them?

[willIam9387]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Craig Kimbrel Real-Life
September 2011

Innings Pitched: 11.1
Earned Runs: 6
ERA: 4.86

Now granted this was the last month in an otherwise great year for Kimbrel, However he blew three saves during this month during a time when the Braves collapsed. This was Kimbrel's worst month so far in his career and it couldn't have come at a worse time for the Braves. But these fluctuations do occur.

[Cavicchi]

Re: Unrealistic stats continuing

Craig Kimbrel Real-Life
September 2011

Innings Pitched: 11.1
Earned Runs: 6
ERA: 4.86

That was for the month, not his standing ERA: http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelo.../craig-kimbrel

And has nothing to do with first week of June.

Also, regarding Colvin, I should mention he is playing LF because Cargo, unfortunately, has been on the disabled list from April of 2013.

[bkrich83]

Yes. The way you talk, there could never be unrealistic stats.

Yes, I say Tyler Colvin playing the OF will never have 8 assists in first week of June of any year. I base that on his ability now and forever. How many outfielders do you know who have had 8 assists in less than 60 games? Would you like to name them?

Who can argue with that kind of logic? Brilliant.

[bkrich83]

You argue that Kimbrel has never had an ERA over 4 in going into June in any season, yeah, he's only pitched how many seasons so that makes a sim game's generated stat "unrealistic"?

Yet you somehow skipped over my post that pointed out that even the greatest closer ever had season where he had just that.

Here it is again:

Waiting for a "Mariano Rivera is not Craig Kimbrel, therefore irrelevant" response.

Have you looked at the logic behind his argument and his responses? Why bother at this point.


I'd like to get that glitch fixed from last year where Pujols hit .220 with no home runs in the month of April... Oh wait.