Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

[johnpreyes]

With the implementation of real ball physics, I was wondering why slider makers still feel the need to change the solid hits slider. I just wanted to pick people's brains.

[jr86]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

Simply put, If you leave Solid Hits at Default you will see a lot of rockets being sprayed all over the field and very few choppers or bloop hits which is why most of the slider makers have reduced this to either 3 or 4.

[nomo17k]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

I don't know where this implied connection between Solid Hit slider and the true ball physics comes from, but they aren't necessarily tied together... Solid Hit slider basically adjust the fraction of line drives.

I think the game can still do a better job of increasing poor hit variety to showcase how true ball physics affects this.

You see many more poor hits, like bloopers, down in minors, so there's no reason you shouldn't see more at the MLB level. My guess is that the quality of hit or rather how fast the batted ball gets launched off the bat is affected very significantly by Power rating, and given that many MLB hitters have moderate to high Power ratings, the hits they produce tend to be "solid" (i.e., have more velocity off the bat).

I think that's partly the reason why we don't see a lot of variety in poor hits at the MLB level.

[ralphieboy11]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

I don't know where this implied connection between Solid Hit slider and the true ball physics comes from, but they aren't necessarily tied together... Solid Hit slider basically adjust the fraction of line drives.

I think the game can still do a better job of increasing poor hit variety to showcase how true ball physics affects this.

You see many more poor hits, like bloopers, down in minors, so there's no reason you shouldn't see more at the MLB level. My guess is that the quality of hit or rather how fast the batted ball gets launched off the bat is affected very significantly by Power rating, and given that many MLB hitters have moderate to high Power ratings, the hits they produce tend to be "solid" (i.e., have more velocity off the bat).

I think that's partly the reason why we don't see a lot of variety in poor hits at the MLB level.

I think the post is spot on. I saw a pitcher get a bloop hit the other night, and I thought to myself, 'I wish we could see more of those'.

The pitcher has no power so that's why he can produce a hit like that while the other hitters have more pop on their contact.

It would be nice in future releases if we could see more bloopers from even the best power guys in the majors. It would be nice to see a hitter jammed and still have the ball bloop over the infielders. I would also like to see the broken bat swings improved, to where you could get a hit into the outfield with them. Not all bats break on pitches where the pitch is inside. Many times in the real majors the bat breaks when the ball is hit off the end of the bat, resulting into a soft fly into the outfield.

[nomo17k]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

...

It would be nice in future releases if we could see more bloopers from even the best power guys in the majors. It would be nice to see a hitter jammed and still have the ball bloop over the infielders. I would also like to see the broken bat swings improved, to where you could get a hit into the outfield with them. Not all bats break on pitches where the pitch is inside. Many times in the real majors the bat breaks when the ball is hit off the end of the bat, resulting into a soft fly into the outfield.

Right, having the ability to hit it out of the park doesn't mean all his hits would take off faster in general, compared to low power guys.... He would still produce quite a few very poorly hit balls when he couldn't hit squarely.

[Bobhead]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

I personally increase solid hits, several clicks, because I'm more interested in the line drive percentages that are far below average if you leave everything at default. I don't have anything to say about hit variety and bloops right now, other than that angels in the outfield probably have something to do with the shortage.

Edit: as for line drives, before someone jumps on me, let me clarify that in referring to Hum SH only, and so far I've only seen the issue on zone hitting.

[JoeRyan33]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

What's your in game line drive percentage at default SH and with it raised?

I personally increase solid hits, several clicks, because I'm more interested in the line drive percentages that are far below average if you leave everything at default. I don't have anything to say about hit variety and bloops right now, other than that angels in the outfield probably have something to do with the shortage.

Edit: as for line drives, before someone jumps on me, let me clarify that in referring to Hum SH only, and so far I've only seen the issue on zone hitting.

[ParisB]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

Simply put, If you leave Solid Hits at Default you will see a lot of rockets being sprayed all over the field and very few choppers or bloop hits which is why most of the slider makers have reduced this to either 3 or 4.

The Contact and Power sliders affect quality of hits more. The CPU has a ton of plate coverage on Default. They can square up low and away pitches and pull them hard. I guess Timing too.

[Rufio2031]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

I think the post is spot on. I saw a pitcher get a bloop hit the other night, and I thought to myself, 'I wish we could see more of those'.

The pitcher has no power so that's why he can produce a hit like that while the other hitters have more pop on their contact.

It would be nice in future releases if we could see more bloopers from even the best power guys in the majors. It would be nice to see a hitter jammed and still have the ball bloop over the infielders. I would also like to see the broken bat swings improved, to where you could get a hit into the outfield with them. Not all bats break on pitches where the pitch is inside. Many times in the real majors the bat breaks when the ball is hit off the end of the bat, resulting into a soft fly into the outfield.

I wonder if a "contact" swing is used more often if it would result in more bloop shots. I myself rarely use it. But the idea of it is make contact on the ball and power is not a major concern on that particular swing. Which would fit in nicely with the assumption that less powerful hitters produce more bloop hits.

[nomo17k]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

I wonder if a "contact" swing is used more often if it would result in more bloop shots. I myself rarely use it. But the idea of it is make contact on the ball and power is not a major concern on that particular swing. Which would fit in nicely with the assumption that less powerful hitters produce more bloop hits.

In theory and in practice it does, I believe, but it's not particularly a good strategy IMO, since contact swings produce a lot of poor quality hits that are not going to be safe hits. You'd sacrifice a bit too much for the sake of producing bloop hits.

[Bobhead]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

What's your in game line drive percentage at default SH and with it raised?

There is no way to check your cumulative LD%, so I no longer have the data, but I checked at the end of every game for a span of several weeks, and I never once got a % higher than 15%. Most games I had a % of between 8 and 12. Real life MLB LD% is about 19%.

I don't have a definitive answer for what my % is right now, because I'm still working on figuring out the optimal setting, but it's definitely higher.

[Heroesandvillains]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

I'm actually testing GB/FB/LD ratios for an unrelated test currently (not far in, however...Bobhead, it's the GIDP test). I will say that the LD numbers given in the Batter/Pitcher Analysis screen can be a little misleading.

I have seen already a handful of what I'd consider LD's being counted as FB's (never anything too egregious like a GB being counted as a FB, but I have seen one really strange play where a GB was counted as a LD).

But the LD being call a FB I've seen pretty often. Not crazy often, but often enough to post about it here.

[Bobhead]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

I have seen already a handful of what I'd consider LD's being counted as FB's (never anything too egregious like a GB being counted as a FB, but I have seen one really strange play where a GB was counted as a LD).

But the LD being call a FB I've seen pretty often. Not crazy often, but often enough to post about it here.

That was the very first thing that popped into my head when I first noticed the low percentages. I'd be lying if I said I made a significant effort to make sure this wasn't a factor, but I have been thinking about it, and I think I would have noticed if I physically hit, for example, 6 line drives in a game, only to check the thing and see that Pitch Analysis counted 3.

What are your GIDP test results looking like? I'm really curious to see how that goes.

[Heroesandvillains]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

Nomo and I are a little unsure exactly how many games we'll need to make any fair determinations. I think we've totaled a combined 6 games.

Early results show a definite increase in GB's and LD's during GIDP situations. Or rather, a decrease in FB's.

Here's the tricky part: It's difficult to determine exactly how much, say GB's, increase during GIDP situations in the real MLB. The stat seems almost impossible to isolate (according to Nomo) without investing a lot of time into number crunching.

My opinion is that it's only natural for them to increase because a GB is a pitcher's goal here. Nomo seems to me to agree with that, but I think we both agree that it shouldn't increase as much as it has so far.

But again, it's early.

Remember, the Default 75 game test reflected a 30% (ish) increase in GIDP's versus real life. We have a few theories (not all of them ours), but I personally would like to get further into the test before sharing that data (and my opinions if I even feel comfortable enough to share my thoughts after the test).

I know 6 games sounds like only a little. But essentially, 6 games equals a forced minimum of approximately 220-270 or so forced GIDP plate appearances (for instance, I forced over 50 GIDP possible PA's in my first game alone).

But we need more, and a thread will follow. Hopefully a conversation comes of it, but I can't imagine a lot of OS'ers being intrigued by CPU GIDP testing right now. Especially with the glitchy patch and all.

I'll keep you posted.

[nomo17k]

Re: Solid Hits slider and Real Ball Physics

...

Here's the tricky part: It's difficult to determine exactly how much, say GB's, increase during GIDP situations in the real MLB. The stat seems almost impossible to isolate (according to Nomo) without investing a lot of time into number crunching.




But again, it's early.

Remember, the Default 75 game test reflected a 30% (ish) increase in GIDP's versus real life. We have a few theories (not all of them ours), but I personally would like to get further into the test before sharing that data (and my opinions if I even feel comfortable enough to share my thoughts after the test).

I know 6 games sounds like only a little. But essentially, 6 games equals a forced minimum of approximately 220-270 or so forced GIDP plate appearances (for instance, I forced over 50 GIDP possible PA's in my first game alone).

...

I didn't mean to say a FB/GB ratio in GIDP situation is difficult stats to get; I don't think it's been tabulated at baseball-reference.com or fangraphs.com, but if you are one of those who have used retrosheet to do some sabermetrics work (such as those you see at hardballtimes, etc.), then we can get exactly the numbers we want to look at.

I'm usually willing to do that sort of thing as a hobby, have been wanting to look at pitchf/x and stuff for a while, but unfortunately I don't have time right now... I like keep running games on Vita, but I may actually get rid of PS3 for a couple months (am soon moving internationally, and paying customs doesn't seem like a good idea).


Also, IT'S EARLY is quite a correct statement. I got another test game in yesterday, and I cannot really be sure right now we'll end up seeing inflated GB% in GIDP situations (though h&v's numbers seem pretty solidly favoring GBs...). Although it's not clear how well they are represented in the game, but one of the starters was Cliff Lee, a consummate fly ball pitcher, and it almost neutralized my FB%, LD%, and GB% to the averages we saw at default... just demonstrating it is important to use variety of pitchers in testing.

So we need some more test games. But in general, just eyeballing my spreadsheets from test games, I tend to remember seeing more GB-friendly ball games than FB-friendly ones.