2015 Chicago Cubs

[eric7064]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Any idea what Bryant's overall will be on OSFM. I know A potential but he has to be close to an 80 if not already .

[Figment]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Any idea what Bryant's overall will be on OSFM. I know A potential but he has to be close to an 80 if not already .

Overall doesn't matter, it is simply a result of the individual attributes (that do matter), and the position he is playing. 3B always seems to be the harshest on overall ratings, so I would not be surprised if he got a mid to upper 70s rating, but if he switches to LF, he could go up to a mid-80s or even down to a low 70s. Ultimately the only thing that matters are attributes, the position you plan to play him at, and how you plan to use him (ie base stealer).

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Overall doesn't matter, it is simply a result of the individual attributes (that do matter), and the position he is playing. 3B always seems to be the harshest on overall ratings, so I would not be surprised if he got a mid to upper 70s rating, but if he switches to LF, he could go up to a mid-80s or even down to a low 70s. Ultimately the only thing that matters are attributes, the position you plan to play him at, and how you plan to use him (ie base stealer).

Did you mean low 90s? Cause low 70s doesn't make sense lol

[MrOldboy]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Did you mean low 90s? Cause low 70s doesn't make sense lol

It depends on how the OVR calculations are made in MLB 15. They seem different from the streams they have had and Bryant may grade out as a lower OVR than expected, or higher. We need the game to find out for sure.

But if anyone is curious look at the projections for Bryant over say 120-130 games. 25-30 HR, .260 AVG, average to above average defense at 3B, high K rate. Plug that into Knight's ratings table and that gives you an idea of what he might be rated at.

[teeds]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

It depends on how the OVR calculations are made in MLB 15. They seem different from the streams they have had and Bryant may grade out as a lower OVR than expected, or higher. We need the game to find out for sure.

But if anyone is curious look at the projections for Bryant over say 120-130 games. 25-30 HR, .260 AVG, average to above average defense at 3B, high K rate. Plug that into Knight's ratings table and that gives you an idea of what he might be rated at.

We have Bryant at:

CR 58
CL 63
PR 85
PL 89
VIS 18
DISC 71
SPD 51
ARM ST 78
ARM AC 61
REACT 56
FLD AB 62
STL 44
BR AGG 38

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

It depends on how the OVR calculations are made in MLB 15. They seem different from the streams they have had and Bryant may grade out as a lower OVR than expected, or higher. We need the game to find out for sure.

But if anyone is curious look at the projections for Bryant over say 120-130 games. 25-30 HR, .260 AVG, average to above average defense at 3B, high K rate. Plug that into Knight's ratings table and that gives you an idea of what he might be rated at.

Sorry, disregard my post, I totally misread what figment said.

[Figment]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

We have Bryant at:

CR 58
CL 63
PR 85
PL 89
VIS 18
DISC 71
SPD 51
ARM ST 78
ARM AC 61
REACT 56
FLD AB 62
STL 44
BR AGG 38

It all looks good except the 18 vision. Is that a typo?

[teeds]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

It all looks good except the 18 vision. Is that a typo?

Nope. New charts and new formulas to account for BB% and K%. I think zips has Bryant at a 33% K rate. WTNY ran sims and adjusted Knights charts to his findings.

[Figment]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Nope. New charts and new formulas to account for BB% and K%. I think zips has Bryant at a 33% K rate. WTNY ran sims and adjusted Knights charts to his findings.

Wow. I'm surprised at that one, but you guys always put out a quality roster, so I have faith. Can't wait

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Nope. New charts and new formulas to account for BB% and K%. I think zips has Bryant at a 33% K rate. WTNY ran sims and adjusted Knights charts to his findings.

Wow. I'm surprised at that one, but you guys always put out a quality roster, so I have faith. Can't wait

The ZiPS projections for guys at extremes of power/K's and for which there's little track record can get a little fuzzy, but here are my numbers for Kris Bryant over 4 sims with the ratings mentioned:

528 +/- 131 PAs (he got hurt in 1 sim)
.237 +/- .024 batting average
.317 +/- .018 OBP
.421 +/- .028 SLG
.738 +/- .046 OPS
21 +/- 7 HRs
66 +/- 12 RBI
30.17 +/- 1.83 K%
10.13 +/- 0.67 BB%
9 +/- 1 SBs
73.9 +/- 13.5 SB%

Keep in mind that these +/- ranges given are for 1 standard deviation. To get a better idea of what's possible during any given sim, you'd need to expand that to at least 2 or even 3 standard deviations.

For guys not all that close to the majors, I don't think ZiPS data is the way to go.

[Lisac]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Like the numbers on Bryant. What stance do you use for him? Ive tried 6 diff ones and havent found 1 thats blown me away

[MrOldboy]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Like the numbers on Bryant. What stance do you use for him? Ive tried 6 diff ones and havent found 1 thats blown me away

Hopefully something looks good in MLB 15. Nothing matched quite right in MLB 14 for Bryant. I think Elliot Johnson was my favorite from last year because of the slight bat lift off the shoulder, but too narrow at the base. Lots of changes to prospect stances I have seen over the 2014 season and now in ST they've changed their stances even more. Almora is probably the most drastic with the reduction in his leg kick.

[Lisac]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Hopefully something looks good in MLB 15. Nothing matched quite right in MLB 14 for Bryant. I think Elliot Johnson was my favorite from last year because of the slight bat lift off the shoulder, but too narrow at the base. Lots of changes to prospect stances I have seen over the 2014 season and now in ST they've changed their stances even more. Almora is probably the most drastic with the reduction in his leg kick.

Thanks tried that one and it's pretty good. Still stuck on using Trumbo's!

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

The ZiPS projections for guys at extremes of power/K's and for which there's little track record can get a little fuzzy, but here are my numbers for Kris Bryant over 4 sims with the ratings mentioned:

528 +/- 131 PAs (he got hurt in 1 sim)
.237 +/- .024 batting average
.317 +/- .018 OBP
.421 +/- .028 SLG
.738 +/- .046 OPS
21 +/- 7 HRs
66 +/- 12 RBI
30.17 +/- 1.83 K%
10.13 +/- 0.67 BB%
9 +/- 1 SBs
73.9 +/- 13.5 SB%

Keep in mind that these +/- ranges given are for 1 standard deviation. To get a better idea of what's possible during any given sim, you'd need to expand that to at least 2 or even 3 standard deviations.

For guys not all that close to the majors, I don't think ZiPS data is the way to go.

Those numbers (slash line and HR's) all look low to me. Most projections I've seen have him hitting 30 HR this year and while I don't think he's gonna be a high average guy I don't think he's gonna finish in the .230's either.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Those numbers (slash line and HR's) all look low to me. Most projections I've seen have him hitting 30 HR this year and while I don't think he's gonna be a high average guy I don't think he's gonna finish in the .230's either.

As I mentioned above, there's a certain way to read statistical data, which is why I gave error bars. The fact that he hit .237 in my 4 sims (one of which he got hurt in and struggled) doesn't mean he'd hit .237 in 4 more sims. He has a reasonable probability to hit anywhere from .189 to .285 or even a bit wider than that if you think about the variation in the data. ZiPS says he'll hit .256 for reference. To pin it down further, you'd need to collect more data.

Same with HRs. 21 +/- 7 homers means anywhere between 7 and 35 homers has a likely probability of happening in any given sim.

Ditto on the other things.

As always, people are free to make their own edits for favorite players they want to beef up.