2015 Chicago Cubs

[Eddie2288]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Hey MrOldBoy I noticed that you said you needed help with getting correct equipment for prospects? I can help if you need it. I know its kinda late but I gladly help!

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

6 piping hot fresh sims right out of the game for Kris Bryant...

596 +/- 16 PAs
.257/.325/.471 +/- .022/.017/.036
30 HR +/- 4
4.94 HR% +/- 0.59
91 RBI +/- 4
30.40 K% +/- 2.12
8.30 BB% +/- 0.53


Here are Bryant's ZiPS Projections

557 PA
.256/.339/.500
29 HR
5.21 HR%
96 RBI
32.9 K%
9.3 BB%


Pretty spot on if you ask me. These are with the exact same ratings as before.

For giggles, let's do Baez, too (average of 6 sims).

549 +/- 8 PAs
.225/.289/.421 +/- .018/.010/.045
22 HR +/- 6
3.97 HR% +/- 1.10
68 RBI +/- 15
29.93 K% +/- 1.64
7.68 BB% +/- 1.06


Here are Baez's ZiPS Projections

650 PA
.233/.283/.447
30 HR
4.62 HR%
90 RBI
32.6 K%
5.8 BB%

Just curious, did you happen to take down any others? Now I'm curious as to how soler's came out. If not, no biggie and no need to run another sim or anything but if you did happen to save it please share.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Just curious, did you happen to take down any others? Now I'm curious as to how soler's came out. If not, no biggie and no need to run another sim or anything but if you did happen to save it please share.

Here is Soler

502 PA +/- 87
.241/.309/.408 +/- .015/.017/.025
15 HR +/- 2
3.07 HR% +/- 0.40
59 RBI +/- 12
22.66 K% +/- 1.58
8.41 BB% 1.33
1 SB +/- 1
42.9 SB% +/- 44.7

Soler's ZiPS

345 PA
.252/.310/.460
12 HR
3.47 HR%
59 RBI
22.3 K%
7.8 BB%
3 SB
75.0 SB%


Here is Rizzo

705 PA +/- 14
.276/.357/.508 +/- .017/.019/.037
36 HR +/- 6
5.17 HR% +/- 0.87
103 RBI +/- 14
20.33 K% +/- 1.96
10.75 BB% 0.80
7 SB +/- 2
60.0 SB% +/- 14.4

Rizzo's ZiPS

651 PA
.269/.358/.493
30 HR
4.61 HR%
94 RBI
20.0 K%
10.8 BB%
6 SB
54.5 SB%


Here is Castro

655 PA +/- 9
.264/.317/.426 +/- .031/.028/.051
18 HR +/- 3
2.73 HR% +/- 0.46
72 RBI +/- 12
18.16 K% +/- 1.03
6.67 BB% 0.71
10 SB +/- 2
59.3 SB% +/- 10.5

Castro's ZiPS

674 PA
.286/.328/.429
15 HR
2.22 HR%
71 RBI
16.5 K%
5.3 BB%
12 SB
63.2 SB%


Here is Lester

218 IP +/- 9
7.89 H/9 +/- 0.73
0.89 HR/9 +/- 0.17
7.65 K/9 +/- 0.50
2.06 BB/9 +/- 0.32


Lester's ZiPS

208.2 IP
8.24 H/9
0.73 HR/9
8.06 K/9
2.29 BB/9

[Eddie2288]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Here is Soler

502 PA +/- 87
.241/.309/.408 +/- .015/.017/.025
15 HR +/- 2
3.07 HR% +/- 0.40
59 RBI +/- 12
22.66 K% +/- 1.58
8.41 BB% 1.33
1 SB +/- 1
42.9 SB% +/- 44.7

Soler's ZiPS

345 PA
.252/.310/.460
12 HR
3.47 HR%
59 RBI
22.3 K%
7.8 BB%
3 SB
75.0 SB%

I understand ZiPS is usually acurate but I can't imagine Soler only hitting 12-15 HRs this season

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I understand ZiPS is usually acurate but I can't imagine Soler only hitting 12-15 HRs this season

Same thing I was thinking, the .241 average seems rather low as well. I like rizzos numbers though. Disappointed to see castros average so low but at the same time I could see it happening.

[Eddie2288]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Same thing I was thinking, the .241 average seems rather low as well. I like rizzos numbers though. Disappointed to see castros average so low but at the same time I could see it happening.

I think a .260-.275 is a solid average for Castro. I don't see him going back to his All-Star years of .300 average

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I think a .260-.275 is a solid average for Castro. I don't see him going back to his All-Star years of .300 average

If that is the case, I don't see the point of keeping him around. His power is gonna top out around 15 HR's, he doesn't draw walks and has focus issues in the field. If he's not hitting .280+ most years his value is greatly decreased.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I understand ZiPS is usually acurate but I can't imagine Soler only hitting 12-15 HRs this season

Same thing I was thinking, the .241 average seems rather low as well. I like rizzos numbers though. Disappointed to see castros average so low but at the same time I could see it happening.

They are only projecting 345 plate appearances for Soler is why. I'd look more at the HR% than the raw numbers. Again, keeping the error bars in mind

[Eddie2288]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

If that is the case, I don't see the point of keeping him around. His power is gonna top out around 15 HR's, he doesn't draw walks and has focus issues in the field. If he's not hitting .280+ most years his value is greatly decreased.

Just keeping him around just in case on of the infield prospects don't pan out. I think that if Baez gets more at bats and more experience with MLB pitching and Russell gets a year or so under his belt and both are successful I can see Castro getting traded

[CubsWillRiseAgain]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

ATTENTION PEOPLE WHO DO BATTING STANCES:

For those who want to know which stance is best for KRIS BRYANT, go to OMAR INFANTE.

It's nearly identical to Bryant.

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

They are only projecting 345 plate appearances for Soler is why. I'd look more at the HR% than the raw numbers. Again, keeping the error bars in mind

Question about these sims you're running, are these with rosters currently on the vault in 14 or are they yet to be released? If they are in the vault, which version?

[stlbearboy]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I think zips is underrating just about all the cubs on batting avg. Soler should definitely be 20-25 Homers. And I see Starlin bottoming out at 280 going forward.

[OhioCub]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I think zips is underrating just about all the cubs on batting avg. Soler should definitely be 20-25 Homers. And I see Starlin bottoming out at 280 going forward.

As was posted before, they're only projecting 345 plate appearances for soler due to his injuries in the past, assuming he stays healthy he should definitely end up with more than they project.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

Question about these sims you're running, are these with rosters currently on the vault in 14 or are they yet to be released? If they are in the vault, which version?

Nope, not in the vault. This is my own personal test copy updated with the newest ratings. And if the next question is, can you upload it? My answer is no. Partly due to wanting to avoid confusion from having too many versions of the same roster floating around. Partly because the ratings are all public (linked in POST 27 of the OSFM thread) and people can edit their own. Partly because I don't want to be fielding 20 questions about them. Doing the sims and helping make OSFM is already enough work to do in my free time without having to provide support for a different roster. And then there's the most important reason of all: guys with no concept of statistics running a single sim and spewing misinformation about how the ratings are trash because there was one outlier data point (Trout hit .260 or whatever). No thanks. These ratings will all feature in the Hybrid roster when it comes out.

As was posted before, they're only projecting 345 plate appearances for soler due to his injuries in the past, assuming he stays healthy he should definitely end up with more than they project.

Right, which is why it's important to look more at the percentages I gave. The K%, BB%, HR%, and average. The gamer will determine how many PAs guys like Soler get (unless he gets hurt), so the raw numbers based on a specific amount of playing time (345 PAs) are less useful. The percentages apply no matter how many PAs Soler (and others) will get.

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2015 Chicago Cubs

I think zips is underrating just about all the cubs on batting avg. Soler should definitely be 20-25 Homers. And I see Starlin bottoming out at 280 going forward.

ZiPS is, by design, a conservative model. It's less likely to predict breakouts and numbers much higher than career norms. That's a strength or a weakness in the model depending on how you look at it.