Re: Is Nolan Ryan overrated?
I will give you a bit more on just how bad Ryan's run support was for him.
From an article by Chris Jaffe:
I set off on a little project. It began with me being curious on the HoF case for some long-timer big-win pitchers from the 60s/70s like Kaat, Tiant, John, and Blyleven. I thought I'd compare them with some HoF big-win pitchers from that same generation - Palmer, Jenkins, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro, Carlton, Seaver, and Perry. These twelve form a group roughly defined as "old pitchers when I was a little kid." Just to give myself an idea of how high or low a pitcher's run support could be, I threw in some pitchers who I figured probably had very good run support throughout their career - Catfish Hunter, Jack Morris, Lefty Grove, & Vic Raschi - and some who I thought should've had below average run support throughout their career - Bob Friend, Ted Lyons, Robin Roberts, Billy Pierce, Dave Stieb. Then I also tossed in Spahn & Wynn, 'cuz I had all the other live ball 300 game winners.
What I did was go to retrosheet, write down their run support for each individual game they started (which takes far less time than one might think - for 1920-77 it's real easy as the daily log lists the starting pitcher for each team, it's a little harder for 1978-90, but they still have daily splits; it's only a pain in the butt from 1991-present - fortunately I had very little of that to check). At any rate, from that info, I figured the pitcher's annual Run Support, then adjusted it for park effects as listed at baseball-reference.com (rememebering to half the distance from the PF # and 100 to account for road games); then divided the adjusted run support by the league average Runs/Game; & multiplying by 100 to get the pitcher's seasonal Run Support Index (RSI)- so a pitcher perfectly in-line with the league average would have 100, one with 20% better run support would have a RSI, etc. Then I figured a career RSI, by multiplying each season's RSI by games started, added all the years together, and dividing that sum by the career total of games started. Though I made the individual season RSI an integer, for the career I used 2 decimal places.
At any rate, here are the career RSI for the 23 above pitchers:
1) Vic Raschi 115.60
2) Catfish Hunter 110.40
3) Jack Morris 107.27
4) Jim Palmer 107.05
5) Jim Kaat 106.67
6) Lefty Grove 105.90
7) Steve Carlton 105.77
8) Luis Tiant 105.63
9) Warren Spahn 104.97
10) Early Wynn 104.46
11) Fergie Jenkins 103.74
12) Tommy John 101.89
13) Don Sutton 101.00
14) Phil Niekro 99.85
15) Billy Pierce 96.81
16) Bert Blyleven 96.76
17) Dave Stieb 95.97
18) Robin Roberts 95.60
......Tom Seaver 95.60
20) Gaylord Perry 95.18
21) Ted Lyons 94.19
22) Bob Friend 93.13
23) Nolan Ryan 92.95
I like it because most people ended up where I expected them, though obviously there were a few surprises. The biggie is #23 - Nolan Ryan did worse than any of the guys I threw in to represent the low end of the spectrum. Worse than Bob Friend! That's like being on the wrong end of the Mendoza line. . . That's like be out-acted by William Schatner.
His entire career, his team's didn't hit well for him. He NEVER had a season in which his RSI was as high as Raschi's career mark. He only had one season as high as Hunter - in 1969 when he had a 112 when he only started 10 stinkin' games. He also had 11 seasons where his RSI was under 90 - and he started 292 games in those seasons. He also led all pitchers in times victimized by shutouts with 63. Phil Niekro was 2nd with 61.
The highest single-season mark for anyone starting full-time was in 1976 when Steve Carlton got a 151! In eight of his starts, the Phils scored 10 or more runs (the single season high in that category - tied by Lefty Grove pitching for a great offensive team ni 1930). Oddly enough, he got a no-decision from the single biggest offensive explosion, as he was the starter in that 18-16 game where the Cubs blew a 12 run lead (that was also the most runs ever scored by his team in any start of his career). Ironically, Carlton also had the lowest RSI for anyone with 15 or more starts - a 59 in 1985 when he had 16 starts.
Worst RSI for anyone starting for a full season? Dave Stieb with a 62 in 1981. Of course, because of the strike he only had 25 starts. Lowest score of anyone with 30+ starts? Bert Blyleven in 1976 with 68 - he got a 74 in 12 starts with the Twins, and 65 in 24 starts with Texas. 2nd worse was also in 1976 (what was going on that year?) as Nolan Ryan got a 69. 3rd worst is Gaylord Perry getting a 70 in his last season.
One thing which could distort an RSI was 1 Huge Game, and ironically the most obvious example of a person's single season RSI getting distorted was Nolan Ryan. In 1971, the Mets scored 87 runs in his 26 starts - 20 of them in one game. His RSI still stank that year. Nolan was one of only three pitchers to ever get a 20 run performance in support. Lefty Grove did twice (in the same year) & Early Wynn did twice - oddly enough both were with the Go-Go White Sox, who were hardly known for their slugging. Actually, one of those games came in 1960, the year after the Go-Go Sox (Gone-Gone Sox?), but it was the same core roster. FWIW, neither Robin Roberts nor Gaylord Perry ever had the offense behind them ever score 15 runs or more in a game for them - 14 was the highest both ever had. . . . Spahn's RSI was as consistent as everything else in his career - he only had one real season (not including '42) with an RSI not in the 90-120 range - and even then it was only an 88 in 1947.
In 1968, the Cubs were shut out TEN TIMES when Fergie pitched. Ouch. I know it was '68, but jeez. . . To put that in perspective, Vic Raschi only had 8 shut outs tossed against him in his 255 career starts. Raschi once went 166 straight starts without having his hitters shut out behing him (that streak ended when the Yanks were shut out 3 times in 6 starts with him on the mound). Hell, even Dave Stieb, despite some dreadful early run support, only got shut out 17 times. Spahn, in 20+ season, only 35 times, but Fergie got nailed ten times in one year. Actually, the worst stretch I can find for any single pitcher happened to Luis Tiant in '74, when the Red Sox scored 0, 0, 0, , and 1 runs - er, run - for him in four straight starts. He ended the year with an RSI of 98.
Doesn't say much for Catfish that his Run Support was that good and his career winning percentage was .574. James listed him in his pitcher rankings, but not Jack Morris, & I gotta figure Morris may have been a little better, if for no other reason than he lasted longer.
Raschi may very well have the highest RSI for anyone period - a .667 win percentage with a career 105+ ERA? There's a combo you don't see very often. . . Tom Seaver only had one season with an RSI higher than Rashi's mark - a 126 in '81.
Jim Palmer actually had a 5 year stretch from 1974-8 under 100. Ted Lyons had an eleven year similar stretch from 1929-39 (though he did hit 99 twice in that ! period).
I was going to use the RS info an espn.com to include Maddux & Clemens, but that info is different. They figure it out as (quoting from the stats glossary there: "Team's runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the pitcher of record)."
I'm still amazed how bad Ryan's run support was.
I will give you a bit more on just how bad Ryan's run support was for him.
From an article by Chris Jaffe:
I set off on a little project. It began with me being curious on the HoF case for some long-timer big-win pitchers from the 60s/70s like Kaat, Tiant, John, and Blyleven. I thought I'd compare them with some HoF big-win pitchers from that same generation - Palmer, Jenkins, Ryan, Sutton, Niekro, Carlton, Seaver, and Perry. These twelve form a group roughly defined as "old pitchers when I was a little kid." Just to give myself an idea of how high or low a pitcher's run support could be, I threw in some pitchers who I figured probably had very good run support throughout their career - Catfish Hunter, Jack Morris, Lefty Grove, & Vic Raschi - and some who I thought should've had below average run support throughout their career - Bob Friend, Ted Lyons, Robin Roberts, Billy Pierce, Dave Stieb. Then I also tossed in Spahn & Wynn, 'cuz I had all the other live ball 300 game winners.
What I did was go to retrosheet, write down their run support for each individual game they started (which takes far less time than one might think - for 1920-77 it's real easy as the daily log lists the starting pitcher for each team, it's a little harder for 1978-90, but they still have daily splits; it's only a pain in the butt from 1991-present - fortunately I had very little of that to check). At any rate, from that info, I figured the pitcher's annual Run Support, then adjusted it for park effects as listed at baseball-reference.com (rememebering to half the distance from the PF # and 100 to account for road games); then divided the adjusted run support by the league average Runs/Game; & multiplying by 100 to get the pitcher's seasonal Run Support Index (RSI)- so a pitcher perfectly in-line with the league average would have 100, one with 20% better run support would have a RSI, etc. Then I figured a career RSI, by multiplying each season's RSI by games started, added all the years together, and dividing that sum by the career total of games started. Though I made the individual season RSI an integer, for the career I used 2 decimal places.
At any rate, here are the career RSI for the 23 above pitchers:
1) Vic Raschi 115.60
2) Catfish Hunter 110.40
3) Jack Morris 107.27
4) Jim Palmer 107.05
5) Jim Kaat 106.67
6) Lefty Grove 105.90
7) Steve Carlton 105.77
8) Luis Tiant 105.63
9) Warren Spahn 104.97
10) Early Wynn 104.46
11) Fergie Jenkins 103.74
12) Tommy John 101.89
13) Don Sutton 101.00
14) Phil Niekro 99.85
15) Billy Pierce 96.81
16) Bert Blyleven 96.76
17) Dave Stieb 95.97
18) Robin Roberts 95.60
......Tom Seaver 95.60
20) Gaylord Perry 95.18
21) Ted Lyons 94.19
22) Bob Friend 93.13
23) Nolan Ryan 92.95
I like it because most people ended up where I expected them, though obviously there were a few surprises. The biggie is #23 - Nolan Ryan did worse than any of the guys I threw in to represent the low end of the spectrum. Worse than Bob Friend! That's like being on the wrong end of the Mendoza line. . . That's like be out-acted by William Schatner.
His entire career, his team's didn't hit well for him. He NEVER had a season in which his RSI was as high as Raschi's career mark. He only had one season as high as Hunter - in 1969 when he had a 112 when he only started 10 stinkin' games. He also had 11 seasons where his RSI was under 90 - and he started 292 games in those seasons. He also led all pitchers in times victimized by shutouts with 63. Phil Niekro was 2nd with 61.
The highest single-season mark for anyone starting full-time was in 1976 when Steve Carlton got a 151! In eight of his starts, the Phils scored 10 or more runs (the single season high in that category - tied by Lefty Grove pitching for a great offensive team ni 1930). Oddly enough, he got a no-decision from the single biggest offensive explosion, as he was the starter in that 18-16 game where the Cubs blew a 12 run lead (that was also the most runs ever scored by his team in any start of his career). Ironically, Carlton also had the lowest RSI for anyone with 15 or more starts - a 59 in 1985 when he had 16 starts.
Worst RSI for anyone starting for a full season? Dave Stieb with a 62 in 1981. Of course, because of the strike he only had 25 starts. Lowest score of anyone with 30+ starts? Bert Blyleven in 1976 with 68 - he got a 74 in 12 starts with the Twins, and 65 in 24 starts with Texas. 2nd worse was also in 1976 (what was going on that year?) as Nolan Ryan got a 69. 3rd worst is Gaylord Perry getting a 70 in his last season.
One thing which could distort an RSI was 1 Huge Game, and ironically the most obvious example of a person's single season RSI getting distorted was Nolan Ryan. In 1971, the Mets scored 87 runs in his 26 starts - 20 of them in one game. His RSI still stank that year. Nolan was one of only three pitchers to ever get a 20 run performance in support. Lefty Grove did twice (in the same year) & Early Wynn did twice - oddly enough both were with the Go-Go White Sox, who were hardly known for their slugging. Actually, one of those games came in 1960, the year after the Go-Go Sox (Gone-Gone Sox?), but it was the same core roster. FWIW, neither Robin Roberts nor Gaylord Perry ever had the offense behind them ever score 15 runs or more in a game for them - 14 was the highest both ever had. . . . Spahn's RSI was as consistent as everything else in his career - he only had one real season (not including '42) with an RSI not in the 90-120 range - and even then it was only an 88 in 1947.
In 1968, the Cubs were shut out TEN TIMES when Fergie pitched. Ouch. I know it was '68, but jeez. . . To put that in perspective, Vic Raschi only had 8 shut outs tossed against him in his 255 career starts. Raschi once went 166 straight starts without having his hitters shut out behing him (that streak ended when the Yanks were shut out 3 times in 6 starts with him on the mound). Hell, even Dave Stieb, despite some dreadful early run support, only got shut out 17 times. Spahn, in 20+ season, only 35 times, but Fergie got nailed ten times in one year. Actually, the worst stretch I can find for any single pitcher happened to Luis Tiant in '74, when the Red Sox scored 0, 0, 0, , and 1 runs - er, run - for him in four straight starts. He ended the year with an RSI of 98.
Doesn't say much for Catfish that his Run Support was that good and his career winning percentage was .574. James listed him in his pitcher rankings, but not Jack Morris, & I gotta figure Morris may have been a little better, if for no other reason than he lasted longer.
Raschi may very well have the highest RSI for anyone period - a .667 win percentage with a career 105+ ERA? There's a combo you don't see very often. . . Tom Seaver only had one season with an RSI higher than Rashi's mark - a 126 in '81.
Jim Palmer actually had a 5 year stretch from 1974-8 under 100. Ted Lyons had an eleven year similar stretch from 1929-39 (though he did hit 99 twice in that ! period).
I was going to use the RS info an espn.com to include Maddux & Clemens, but that info is different. They figure it out as (quoting from the stats glossary there: "Team's runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the pitcher of record)."
I'm still amazed how bad Ryan's run support was.
:wink: .
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