AL MVP

[CMH]

Re: AL MVP

As I understand it, while it doesn't take defense into account, VORP is still comparing a player to other players at his position.

It's important to keep this in mind when comparing players at different positions, like Jeter and Giambi above. Theoretically, Jeter's VORP could be so much higher simply because a replacement level 1B is a much better hitter than the replacement SS.

You're right. Only thing is Baseball Prospectus has Giambi listed as a DH. Either way, Giambi trails a few.

DH: Hafner, Ortiz, Thome
1B: Pujols, Berkman, Howard

But, point taken.

[GeePee20]

Re: AL MVP

Why is this crap? Just because one can't quantify a trait doesn't make it necessarily less valuable than something that is quantifiable. All an intangible means, by definition is that it's tough (or impossible) to quantify. It is well within your rights to choose to ignore intangibles because you can't get a firm grasp around it. At the same time, it is well within my rights to think you are a foolish child who chooses to ignore traits that can distinguish between good and great players. Bill James rocks.

BTW, in the case of Jeter, he is currently 5th in the majors in VORP as of 8/31. I think Jeter should and will win it. Hafner is putting up great offensive numbers, yes, but he's doing it on a team who's games haven't meant a thing for 4 months running now, AND he's a DH. Those are 2 huge strikes against him. Jeter is doing it on a division winner AND plays the toughest defensive position. Point Jeter.

Baseball is a collection of individual performances added up to one total. Jeter cannot make his teammates better the same way Steve Nash or Peyton Manning can. Jeter can't throw a touchdown pass or set a screen. He can simply go out there and hit and play defense. In a sport like basketball or football where teammates can actually make people better, I would agree that a team's record should matter. But baseball players do not have to move as a connected unit. So you can take all these fantasy things like intangibles and I'll just put together a murderer's row of guys who put up big numbers. Now don't get me wrong, Jeter has put up fantastic numbers this year but he doesn't touch Hafner.

Like I mentioned in my previous post, it is asinine to penalize Hafner just because he plays with the Indians. I realize they are out of the playoffs, but where would they be without him? Place Hafner on any playoff contending team and he immediately becomes a lock for MVP. It is a joke that he will not win the award just because his teammates are bad.

Hafner also destroys Jeter in both Eqa and OPS BTW. The massive lead he has over Jeter offensively more than makes up for the fact that he doesn't play defense. I would take Hafner over Jeter on my roster in a heartbeat. There are throngs of guys that can be play good defense at short but how many players in the league can even come close to Hafner's offensive numbers?

I appreciate the foolish child comment as well, quite mature of you.

[GeePee20]

Re: AL MVP

If that's how you think it should be awarded, Ortiz should win it hands down.

Hafner has much better numbers so no, I would not give the award to Ortiz at this point.

[Lintyfresh85]

Re: AL MVP

If AROD can win it for the last place Rangers why can't Hafner win it for the 4th place Indians?

My vote (shocking) goes to Travis Hafner.

[GBrushTWood]

Re: AL MVP

If AROD can win it for the last place Rangers why can't Hafner win it for the 4th place Indians?

My vote (shocking) goes to Travis Hafner.

Because that year, 2003, featured no players on contending teams who were having outstanding seasons.

Playoff teams -

Red Sox - Ramirez (no way in hell he would get it after his sitting out games and refusing to PH fiasco's), Garciaparra (one of his worst months ever that September), Ortiz only started playing fulltime after 1/3 of the season was finished.

Yankees - Jeter was stellar, but his numbers really didn't stand out anywhere aside from AVG. Posada got a couple votes but come on he wasn't gonna win it.

Twins - Shannon f'n Stewart got some votes. Not kidding here.

A's - Tejada put up mediocre offensive numbers. Chavez didn't even hit 30 HR's, crack a .300 AVG, or a .350 OBP.

So there you have it for the contending teams. Nobody stood out. Therefore Rodriguez won it, because he stood out from the next highest criteria (offensive numbers).

In 2006, the contending teams have stand out players (Jeter, Dye, Morneau). That's why Hafner won't win it.

[Dice]

Re: AL MVP

And plus, Hafner is a DH which is another negative. It's going to be a while before a pure-DH is gonna win it. After Ortiz didn't win it last year that told me that DH's have to put up MONSTER numbers AND be in the playoff hunt. Hafner is putting up great numbers BUT nothing in terms of monster numbers. And when I say monster I mean seriously close to winning the triple crown in September.

[ehh]

Re: AL MVP

Hafner has much better numbers so no, I would not give the award to Ortiz at this point.

Much better numbers? Ortiz leads the AL in homers and RBI over Hafner.

[GeePee20]

Re: AL MVP

Much better numbers? Ortiz leads the AL in homers and RBI over Hafner.

Hafner has a substantial lead in VORP, OPS and the ultimate stat: Eqa.

For those unaware of what Eqa is here is an expanation:

EqA (Equivalent Average)
I'll just quote Baseball Prospectus here: "A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching." EqA incorporates baserunning but not defense. EqA is derived from something called Raw EqA, which is calculated by (turn away, Rob Dibbles of the world) the following formula:

(H + TB + 1.5*(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB)

And you thought things weren't going to get that nerdy around here. EqA is basically like what you used to think BA was – a true measure of how good a hitter is. EqA is purposely formulated to be on a similar scale to BA so it won't scare off the normal people. .260 is average – which, as a point of comparison, is what Craig Counsell was able to sport in 2005. Guys like Albert Pujols and Travis Hafner can top .350. That's why Travis Hafner should be talked about ten times more than he is. Somehow, Alex Rodriguez was able to block out the back pages of the NY Post well enough to post a MLB-leading EqA of .350 in 2005.

Quote taken from here


Hafner also has a much better BA, OBP, and SLG but those are included in OPS.

Ortiz only has a 5 RBI lead over Hafner but Ortiz has 33 more ABs than Hafner. Equalize their at bats and Hafner actually takes the lead over Ortiz in RBI. But RBI is poor measurement anyway because too much of it relies on your teammates. If you have a bunch of scrubs who never get on base batting ahead of you, it doesn't matter if you are Babe Ruth, you still won't tally a lot of RBI.

5 home runs is also not a significant difference considering that Ortiz has had more at bats than Hafner. Equalize their at bats, and Hafner only trails Ortiz by 2 home runs.

It is a shame that Hafner is stuck in a small market like Cleveland. Put him in Boston or New York and he immediately is the lock for MVP. I don't even like Hafner or the Indians. In fact, Big Papi has become my favorite player in the league now that Bonds has been outed as a liar and a cheater. But facts are facts, Hafner has been fantastic and doesn't get the credit he deserves.

[CMH]

Re: AL MVP

Unfortuantely, a lot of the "new" stats hold no water for the voters.

The voters could not, at this time, back up an MVP vote by using stats like EqA, RC27, and VORP.

The majority still relies on HR, RBI, and Avg.

Maybe someday.