Your Batting Order Formulas

[fugazi]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

In a game that frequently is decided by less than 5 runs...I will err on the side of that 6%.

I think it matters mucho.

[dkgojackets]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

In a game that frequently is decided by less than 5 runs...I will err on the side of that 6%.

I think it matters mucho.

i think you completely misread everything

1st error being that nowhere was it said that the traditional speed/contact then power in the middle lineup was the optimal lineup.

2nd I have no idea what you mean by "side of that 6%". It has no sides. Its just a number taken by dividing the difference of the number of runs produced by the optimal lineup and number of runs produced by the worst lineup by the number produced by the optimal.

3rd is the difference between the best and ABSOLUTELY WORST POSSIBLE (reverse order of OPS) is like 40 runs over the course of the year. The difference between a traditional and random lineup would be at most one percent.

[Stu]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

The most amusing thing about this thread is the number of people who list things like "speed" and "ability to hit to the right side" for their first two hitters but never mention OBP. What's the point of batting your best players 3-5 if your 1 and 2 hitter can't get on base?

[SPTO]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

The most amusing thing about this thread is the number of people who list things like "speed" and "ability to hit to the right side" for their first two hitters but never mention OBP. What's the point of batting your best players 3-5 if your 1 and 2 hitter can't get on base?

I dunno, It seemed to work for these guys

Willie Wilson .326 career OBP
Vince Coleman .324 career OBP
Juan Pierre .348 career OBP
Jose Reyes .330 career OBP

[Blzer]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

The most amusing thing about this thread is the number of people who list things like "speed" and "ability to hit to the right side" for their first two hitters but never mention OBP. What's the point of batting your best players 3-5 if your 1 and 2 hitter can't get on base?

I did. In fact, I specifically said that the leadoff hitter needs to be able to draw the walk (meaning not go out of the zone).

Not only would I expect the #2 hitter to not have a high average, but not have a high OBP as well. Literally the least selfish guy in the lineup, he needs to be able to give up time on base, points on his average to produce RISP scenarios for the next slew of hitters. They even need to be willing to go out of the zone and make contact meanwhile. Therefore, expecting the #2 hitter to have a high OBP is quite ridiculous. But if they still manage to maintain one... wow you have a great #2 hitter!

[Stu]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

I did. In fact, I specifically said that the leadoff hitter needs to be able to draw the walk (meaning not go out of the zone).

Not only would I expect the #2 hitter to not have a high average, but not have a high OBP as well. Literally the least selfish guy in the lineup, he needs to be able to give up time on base, points on his average to produce RISP scenarios for the next slew of hitters. They even need to be willing to go out of the zone and make contact meanwhile. Therefore, expecting the #2 hitter to have a high OBP is quite ridiculous. But if they still manage to maintain one... wow you have a great #2 hitter!

Ironically, if the leadoff hitter gets on base, the best way to get him into scoring position is to *gasp* get on base!!

I'm sorry, but nobody will ever convince me that giving up outs to move a runner over is a good strategy in baseball unless the situation warrants it.

[Sandman42]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

I dunno, It seemed to work for these guys

Willie Wilson .326 career OBP
Vince Coleman .324 career OBP
Juan Pierre .348 career OBP
Jose Reyes .330 career OBP

When you think of all those hitters though, you don't think of them as great hitters (except for Reyes), but as great basestealers. Wilson, Coleman, and Pierre were never really a big threat at the plate as the only time you worried about them was when they got on-base because they could run.

Yeah, sure they could slap some single or bunt their way on base, steal 2nd maybe 3rd, and then score on a sac fly. But, they aren't going to get on base as someone who would walk more often. Give me a guy like Nick Swisher today who can post a .375 OBP over someone like Michael Bourn who has a pitiful sub .300 OBP.

[dkgojackets]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

my work is being done for me, thanks guys

[Sandman42]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

I did. In fact, I specifically said that the leadoff hitter needs to be able to draw the walk (meaning not go out of the zone).

Not only would I expect the #2 hitter to not have a high average, but not have a high OBP as well. Literally the least selfish guy in the lineup, he needs to be able to give up time on base, points on his average to produce RISP scenarios for the next slew of hitters. They even need to be willing to go out of the zone and make contact meanwhile. Therefore, expecting the #2 hitter to have a high OBP is quite ridiculous. But if they still manage to maintain one... wow you have a great #2 hitter!

I'd much rather have my #2 hitter get on base rather than sacrifice himself to move the runner over. A runner on 1st and 2nd with no outs will produce almost a run more on average than having a guy on 2nd with 1 out.

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204053

[SPTO]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

When you think of all those hitters though, you don't think of them as great hitters (except for Reyes), but as great basestealers. Wilson, Coleman, and Pierre were never really a big threat at the plate as the only time you worried about them was when they got on-base because they could run.

Yeah, sure they could slap some single or bunt their way on base, steal 2nd maybe 3rd, and then score on a sac fly. But, they aren't going to get on base as someone who would walk more often. Give me a guy like Nick Swisher today who can post a .375 OBP over someone like Michael Bourn who has a pitiful sub .300 OBP.

This is true but it fits into my (and i'm sure some others) philosophies of what a leadoff hitter should bring to the table. I'd rather sacrifice some OBP if it means driving pitchers crazy when they DO get on base. I've always liked the Royals and Cardinals teams of the '80s. Of course I wouldn't want the exact same philosophy up and down the lineup but a guy or two in the lineup that can do that stuff is invaluable IMO.

[Blzer]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

I'd much rather have my #2 hitter get on base rather than sacrifice himself to move the runner over. A runner on 1st and 2nd with no outs will produce almost a run more on average than having a guy on 2nd with 1 out.

http://baseballprospectus.com/statis...php?cid=204053

I was only saying if the time calls for it. If the guy has enough bat control, he can probably just hit it where it's pitched, much like Ichiro or Viquel, and flip it in front of an outfielder.

Plus, it's the whole risk/reward thing. If you struggle more to get on base, there's at least a 2/3 chance of getting out and maybe not moving that runner over.

[Korosuke]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

Reviving this thread. Still need more ideas.

[fugazi]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

wtf?

[Blzer]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

I just wanted to say one more thing about the 8 hitter that I may have left out. As you may well know, pitchers, catchers, and managers will often work batters based on not only the situation or what they have already seen, but frankly, where they are in the order. #3 hitters will get the 2 - 0 hook, and #4 hitters will get a payoff pitch as a changeup. Furthermore, they'll be worked out of the zone a bit more. In professional baseball, a pitch left over the plate 5 MPH slower than normal is more than likely a crushed pitch, or a pitch that doesn't break though it has the intended spin (which is what we call a hanger).

Like I said before, the purpose of the #8 batter is to extend the inning if and when possible. With that, the pitcher doesn't want them to extend it, so they don't want to walk them. There is a good chance that, in their aim to throw a strike (as they can get mental, especially the younger ones), they will typically let a few miles an hour off and accidentally miss one over the plate too much, even with the fastball. A good #8 hitter knows how to take care of a mistake pitch, I think that's what I'm trying to say. And there are hitters like that in this league. Pedro Feliz, Carlos Guillen, Chris Young, Felipe Crespo back in the day... these guys knew how to handle a pitch when it didn't go where intended. Like I said with the American League #8 hitter, this is a place where you "hide" a power hitter. So, it's almost the same player for both leagues, only I think the #8 hitter isn't as designated for power in the National League, but they can certainly stay behind a pitch over the white.



EDIT: Speaking of DeRosa, since this post, he's hit two home runs tonight (one being a grand slam), both were location mistake fastballs.

[bullpen]

Re: Your Batting Order Formulas

Pretty much as been said...
I just wanted to say that I prefer a left handed hitter hitting second...
Easier to get the runner from first to third if he's driving the ball.