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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
Ok...admittedly I have learned some things in this thread. I come more from the old school way of thought before half of the stats today even existed, or at least before anyone paid attention to them. But I have a question and it is sincere:
Why is it a great thing, when talking about a person's ability to hit with runners in scoring position, to look at OPS? From what I understand, OPS is Slugging % + OBP...is that correct? If it is correct, while Dunn's numbers look good for OPS, they seem to really be skewed because of his high OBP. If you look at the year he had a 1.042 OPS as referenced above with RISP, his slugging % was only .479. While that isn't the worst SLG % ever, it certainly isn't breaking any records either. Also his batting avg is at .225. I know a lot of you think that batting avg is overrated, but I have a question about this as well. In the scenario of how good a hitter is at getting runs in that are in scoring position, why does OBP matter and batting avg not? If you have a high OBP then you are most likely walking unless your batting avg is high and if you are walking, then you aren't driving them in. If your batting avg is high and your OBP is so-so, then you are at least driving the runners in.
Don't get me wrong, I understand that OBP being high is the name of the game when it comes to getting on base. You either get a hit or you walk but either way you are not getting outs. But when speaking about RISP and your ability to bring them home, wouldn't slugging and batting avg give a better gauge?#WeAreUKComment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
Well pointing out that Dunn doesn't hit well (in terms of batting average) is a flawed argument. Sure he hits in the .220-.240 range with RISP, but he also hits for that same average over the course of a season. It's not like he hits any worse with runners on base.Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists AssociationComment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
Ok but if someone says that he isn't a good hitter with RISP, and then someone points out that he has high OPS with RISP, isn't what I just said an argument saying he truly isn't good at hitting with RISP? I realize he is at least consistent with RISP as opposed to just over a season. My point is that someone said he wasn't good at hitting with RISP and someone responded that he was by using OPS.
I guess I just don't see how OPS with RISP means much when someone's OBP is so high it skews the OPS. If you look at his SLG % with RISP by the example I gave it was .479. That isn't that great. It isn't absolutely HORRIBLE but it certainly isn't setting the world on fire either. To me it says that he doesn't hit it where they ain't with a .225 avg, does walk quite a bit and when he does actually hit the ball it is usually an extra base hit.
If the point of the argument is that Dunn isn't good at hitting runners in when they are in scoring position, how does showing a high OPS, when his avg is .225 and his slugging is under .500, argue that he is?
Maybe I am not making sense.#WeAreUKComment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
The difference depends on if you want the guy who will get the higher number of RBIs himself or the guy who will allow his team to score a greater number of runs in the inning on average.
Now if the man on deck had an incredibly low OBP and there were two outs then you would want the first guy. If both guys have average hitters behind him though then the second guy gives the team the greatest chance to score the most runs.Comment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
The man walks a ton, and gets on base with RISP. Problem is, he's not consistently good at driving runners in. I'm eager to see how his HR-to-RBI ratios stack up against other sluggers. That's exactly what Adam is, a slugger. And, not even a great one at that.Comment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
I guess it depends on how you define "good." He sacrifices personal stats and his own RBIs for the benefit of the team. If he went out and swung at every pitch he could get more RBIs (and a lot of players fall into this trap), although he would also end the inning a lot more and cost the team runs overall.
This is why RBIs aren't seen as a meaningful stat.Comment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
For this particular debate, I am not arguing whether or not Dunn is valuable as a player/hitter/slugger. I am only commenting on the specific comment that he wasn't a good producer with RISP, which was followed by a response about his OPS with RISP.
Nothing more, nothing less.
As far as sacrificing his personal stats and his own RBI's, why not look at it as he is making the money he is making to NOT sacrifice RBI's and his personal stats? Don't get me wrong, I would rather see a player walk than hit into an inning ending double play, but at some point you have to hold a player responsible for what they are on the team for. For Dunn it is to hit home runs and drive people in. He certainly hits home runs. And because of that he does drive some people in. But with that said, he doesn't do it at the rate of some other big leaguers.
I also don't see how anyone can say that the stat for RBI's is meaningless. Isn't the point of the game to score more runs than the other team? Wouldn't someone that can get those runs in have more meaning to a team than someone who can walk a lot? I guess you can argue that without the walks from player A then player B wouldn't have anyone to drive in. But what if Player A is suppose to be Player B for a team?
You tell me which player you would prefer to have:
Player A
.237 AVG 74 RBI .380 OBP .929 OPS
Player B
.305 AVG 106 RBI .368 OBP .922 OPS
It would appear from some people's argument in this thread that Player A is better to have than Player B because AVG and RBI don't mean anything and OBP and OPS do.
Anyone else besides me say they would rather have Josh Hamilton (Player B) over Adam Dunn (Player A) right now (not including the reason of defense)?#WeAreUKComment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
I don't see the point in limiting players to certain roles. He is on the team and getting paid to play the best baseball that he can and to help the team to the best of his ability. His game is getting on base at a high rate and hitting the ball with power when he puts it in play. When you try to tell him to do differently it will only lead to a decrease in overall production and hurt the team.Comment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
That is good in theory and maybe statistics, but it isn't real life. Each team has players that have certain roles and most teams, if not all, have at least one guy they want to hit for power and drive in as many runs as possible. They usually draft a player or trade for one or sign a free agent so that they can fill a certain need. The Reds don't have anyone else with the kind of power and potential for driving in runs than Adam Dunn. Now that may change some with the emergence of Bruce and Votto and now Encarnacion is showing more power, but none of them will be a consistent 40+ home run guy.
I do agree with your sentiment that a player should play to his strengths and trying to change that can affect overall production. But I also think that when you look at a person's game, there is just about always something that can be improved. For Adam Dunn, I think it is hitting the ball where the defense isn't at and hitting (not just OBP or OPS) better with RISP. A way for him to improve this is by swinging at a ball in his wheel house more often than taking it. Sure he will ultimately hit into more double plays by putting the ball into pay, but he will most likely also drive more runs in and cause the defense to play ball instead of resting on their laurels. To me, the name of the game isn't to just wait for something to happen. I think you go after it aggressively but in a smart way as well. Dunn has a habit of watching balls just go straight down the middle instead of attacking the pitch.
Also, right now Dunn has 13 doubles for the season in 108 games. Last year he hit 27 in 152 games. While I know a hit is a hit is a hit, the kind of hit can determine greatly the outcome. Doubles are a huge part of the game and may even drive in more runs than home runs do although I don't know that for sure. Is there a website that can tell?
Either way, Dunn is a good slugger. He is also great at helping the team extend an inning by the amount of walks he draws. What would be great is if he would extend that game to a win more often by driving in that run instead of walking and letting a lesser player a chance to drive them in.#WeAreUKComment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
When the OPS is that close, then I'm going to look at other stats. OPS is important but I would never say it's the most important.
I wouldn't just look at OPS and say, "The guy with the highest is most valuable and the MVP of the league!" It doesn't make sense. What else did the guy do?
When you're comparing a .929 and .922 OPS, you're basically looking at identical players in that statistic. Also a .368 OBP compared to a .380 isn't that drastic either.
In this case, the second player is the guy I want if you're only looking at those stats. I'd prefer to look at more than that. But the guy is ALSO hitting for average.
While average is overrated, it doesn't mean that guys who hit .300 aren't valuable."It may well be that we spectators, who are not divinely gifted as athletes, are the only ones able to truly see, articulate and animate the experience of the gift we are denied. And that those who receive and act out the gift of athletic genius must, perforce, be blind and dumb about it -- and not because blindness and dumbness are the price of the gift, but because they are its essence." - David Foster Wallace
"You'll not find more penny-wise/pound-foolish behavior than in Major League Baseball." - Rob NeyerComment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
Exactly.
Phantom, there is a metric out there for hitting with RISP and I think you'd like it. It does not include BB's with RISP...its called "Clutch" and it has absolutely nothing to do with the bottom of the 9th type situations. Its strictly a formula of how well you do with hits vs outs with RISP.
You can search by player name or search by league (Clutch is found under 'THT Hitting' if you search by league).
Hamilton's Clutch rating: 4.3, 22nd in baseball
Dunn's Clutch rating: 1.2, 54th in baseball
Melvin Mora leads with a 14.8 rating, A-Rod is last with a -11.7.Member of The OS Baseball Rocket Scientists AssociationComment
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Re: Thoughts On Adam Dunn?
Thanks, Coug00. I believe that is very interesting and does back up my personal theory that, while Dunn is a good slugger and valuable to the Reds, he isn't a great batter when trying to get the run home. Nothing more, nothing less. I get that he walks a lot and therefore extends the innings, but it does prove the specific fact that he isn't great at hitting them in.Exactly.
Phantom, there is a metric out there for hitting with RISP and I think you'd like it. It does not include BB's with RISP...its called "Clutch" and it has absolutely nothing to do with the bottom of the 9th type situations. Its strictly a formula of how well you do with hits vs outs with RISP.
You can search by player name or search by league (Clutch is found under 'THT Hitting' if you search by league).
Hamilton's Clutch rating: 4.3, 22nd in baseball
Dunn's Clutch rating: 1.2, 54th in baseball
Melvin Mora leads with a 14.8 rating, A-Rod is last with a -11.7.
Of course it proves what everyone already knew of AROD, and that is that he absolutely sucks at being clutch.
#WeAreUKComment
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