I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

[kujoking7]

One guy told me Randy Wells, starter for the cubs, it "not that far behind (skillwise) FELIX HERNANDEZ"

Now I'm not a Mariners fan, or a Cubs *****, but IS THIS CRAP OR WHAT???

[Lintyfresh85]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

Nope.

Randy Wells will win infinitely more Cy Young awards than Hernandez will and already has his plaque carved in stone in Cooperstown.

[steelcurtain311]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

Good lord.

On a pure stuff scale, I don't think there's a pitcher in baseball as talented as Felix Hernandez. Certainly not some random rookie who will probably drop off the face of the planet after another season.

[CMH]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

Randy Wells may very well be a good pitcher, but it's a blinded comparison.

Felix Hernandez came into the league with dominant, strikeout pitcher stuff. Randy Wells doesn't have that.

[steelcurtain311]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

He's not a K pitcher, he doesn't have dominating stuff, he's just a young groundball pitcher with a really poor K rate, which leads me to believe his season is mostly a fluke.

[fugazi]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

yeah, apples and oranges.

Wells is more of a Maddux-type pitcher (and for gawd's sake i ain't saying he will be maddux).

And "random rookie" is a ridiculous and uninformed comment. He started 0-3 (maybe 0-4) and in each of those outings pitched quite well and got diddly-**** for run support. the guy could easily have 12+ wins at this point.

Is he some "rookie", yeah...but he has been consistent for nearly the entire year. I think he is a bit old though...28, i think...not "old" but old enough.

[Lintyfresh85]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

yeah, apples and oranges.

Wells is more of a Maddux-type pitcher (and for gawd's sake i ain't saying he will be maddux).

And "random rookie" is a ridiculous and uninformed comment. He started 0-3 (maybe 0-4) and in each of those outings pitched quite well and got diddly-**** for run support. the guy could easily have 12+ wins at this point.

Is he some "rookie", yeah...but he has been consistent for nearly the entire year. I think he is a bit old though...28, i think...not "old" but old enough.

Wells just turned 27 like a few days ago.

So he's still got plenty of time to get old.

[steelcurtain311]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

I say "random rookie" because he's in his late 20's, wasn't a top pick, never a highly touted prospect, nothing. He IS a random rookie who came out of nowhere. More times than not, these people drop off the face of the Earth after one short little peak, since they were never that good to begin with. That's more than likely the case with Wells, since it's not as if he has great stuff or anything.

[CMH]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

Yea, 27 is a late start. That's not prospect young anymore. A player at 27 should already be showing signs of his potential prime year production and that potential should be based off a few seasons.

When a guy comes in at 27, it most usually means they won't have the experience necessary to maximize their prime years.

[Lintyfresh85]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

Yea, 27 is a late start. That's not prospect young anymore. A player at 27 should already be showing signs of his potential future and that potential should be based off a few seasons.

When a guy comes in at 27, it most usually means they won't have the experience necessary to maximize their prime years.

Yes and no.

His 2.32 K/BB rate is about .30 above league average. If he can sustain that rate, which his minor league numbers say he can... or even possible do a better job than he already does, then I think he can have a perfectly fine career as a starter. He's great at keeping the ball in the ballpark at .33 below league average.

His BABIP is a bit lucky, at .15 lower than league average... but even if that were to normalize, I'd imagine he'd still be boasting a solid 3.30-3.45 ERA.

He's a sinker baller with control. I'd sign him up in a heart beat.

[steelcurtain311]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

I think the point is, you have a guy who may, at best, be like a backend starter if even that. And someone said he's "not far behind Felix" which is absurd.

[fugazi]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

He's a sinker baller with control. I'd sign him up in a heart beat.

There ya' go.

[SPTO]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

Wells was Toronto property for a while and like most pitchers from our system he's a guy that has a lot of downward action on his pitches. he does seem to have good command of all his pitches and can be a good inning eater.

the comparison to Felix Hernandez is just absurd but I think Wells will turn out to be a decent 2 or 3 pitcher in the rotation.

[CMH]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

Yes and no.

His 2.32 K/BB rate is about .30 above league average. If he can sustain that rate, which his minor league numbers say he can... or even possible do a better job than he already does, then I think he can have a perfectly fine career as a starter. He's great at keeping the ball in the ballpark at .33 below league average.

His BABIP is a bit lucky, at .15 lower than league average... but even if that were to normalize, I'd imagine he'd still be boasting a solid 3.30-3.45 ERA.

He's a sinker baller with control. I'd sign him up in a heart beat.

I'm not sure I understand the purpose of this post? I was one of the first to say he could be a good pitcher. The only other thing I added was that he probably won't get any better than he is now because he's entering the league at 27. I never said he'd get worse.

[snepp]

Re: I CAN'T BELIEVE THIS...

Yes and no.

His 2.32 K/BB rate is about .30 above league average. If he can sustain that rate, which his minor league numbers say he can... or even possible do a better job than he already does, then I think he can have a perfectly fine career as a starter. He's great at keeping the ball in the ballpark at .33 below league average.

His BABIP is a bit lucky, at .15 lower than league average... but even if that were to normalize, I'd imagine he'd still be boasting a solid 3.30-3.45 ERA.

He's a sinker baller with control. I'd sign him up in a heart beat.

His LOB% is pretty high, much higher than someone with a mediocre strikeout rate could hope to maintain (78%). His HR/FB% is a tad on the low side, more runs that should be on the board. Everything considered I think you need to add nearly a full run to that ERA, there's no way he maintains one in the low 3's.