Who will win the world series?

[Mr. Franchise]

Re: Who will win the world series?

Javier Vazquez is anything but average.



IF Bedard comes back as his old self in the 2nd half and stays healthy, I'd put Seattle's 1-4 up with New York's in a 7 game series.

Good luck with that...

[roolz]

Re: Who will win the world series?

Seattle, they have put together a pretty good off-season.

Plus although im a Red, I have alot of love for the Kid and I hope that he can retire and head to the HoF with a ring (on the back of a 60HR season)..... maybe the last part is a little

[Coug00]

Re: Who will win the world series?

Good luck with that...

That's why the "if" was big and bolded. I'm no dummy when it comes to relying on Bedard.

[rsox]

Re: Who will win the world series?

That's why the "if" was big and bolded. I'm no dummy when it comes to relying on Bedard.

Then i think it is safe to bet that you are not Bill Bavasi.

[bukktown]

Re: Who will win the world series?

Javier Vazquez is anything but average.



IF Bedard comes back as his old self in the 2nd half and stays healthy, I'd put Seattle's 1-4 up with New York's in a 7 game series.

well when he pitched for the white sox half a decade ago he was average. I doubt he has improved. 3-2 to every batter, 100 pitches in
5 innings. Or 5 no hit innings followed by giving up 4 runs in the 6th. He's got good stuff but he's not a good pitcher

[Coug00]

Re: Who will win the world series?

well when he pitched for the white sox half a decade ago he was average. I doubt he has improved. 3-2 to every batter, 100 pitches in
5 innings. Or 5 no hit innings followed by giving up 4 runs in the 6th. He's got good stuff but he's not a good pitcher

Vazquez had the worst year of his career throwing strikes last year at roughly 49.4%. That is easily in the top half of SP in baseball. And again, that was his worst year. I don't see a guy who has problems throwing strikes or nibbles too much.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...801&position=P

I'd take pitchers with high K-rates, low BB-rates, and can keep the ball inside the ball park on my team any day. Vazquez has developed to be able to do all three well. If you ignore his defense dependent pitching numbers (stuff that is completely out of his control) you'll see he's one of the better pitchers in baseball.

[bukktown]

Re: Who will win the world series?

vasquez has a career 4.50 ERA in the AL. 4.00 inthe NL. Pretty average.

[Coug00]

Re: Who will win the world series?

vasquez has a career 4.50 ERA in the AL. 4.00 inthe NL. Pretty average.

If ERA were a fair measurement of a pitcher, I'd agree with you.

[bukktown]

Re: Who will win the world series?

If ERA were a fair measurement of a pitcher, I'd agree with you.

Since you are a member of the 'Baseball Rocket Science' club (and I say that respectfully), could you share the 'fair' measure's of pitchers and where Vazquez ranks in his career in these categories........I also take a little offense at ERA not being a fair measure. I understand W/L record is not fair as well as BA against. But how many good pitchers have a high career ERA and how many bad pitchers have a low career ERA?

[TheMatrix31]

Re: Who will win the world series?

I'll take my chances with Jurrjens, Hanson, Hudson, Lowe, and Kawakami.

[Coug00]

Re: Who will win the world series?

Since you are a member of the 'Baseball Rocket Science' club (and I say that respectfully), could you share the 'fair' measure's of pitchers and where Vazquez ranks in his career in these categories........I also take a little offense at ERA not being a fair measure. I understand W/L record is not fair as well as BA against. But how many good pitchers have a high career ERA and how many bad pitchers have a low career ERA?

With ERA, pitchers take too much credit and too much blame. ERA is too dependent on home ballpark, score keeping, defense, etc. A pitcher is in direct control of three things. Throwing balls, throwing strikes, and not giving up homeruns (which is also dependent on his homepark to an extent). The rest of it is decided by his defense. Great defenses can shrink a pitcher's ERA (Washburn in Seattle last year) and bad defenses can bloat a pitcher's ERA.

Javier Vazquez is a perfect example of a pitcher who I think is really good that, with the exception of last year, never had a great ERA. He's played for some TERRIBLE defenses the last 6 years. If you look at his FIP and xFIP numbers he's one of the better pitchers in the league. FIP/xFIP are fielding independent metrics that take away defensive influence and are formatted to be similar to ERA.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 354pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="468"><col style="width: 59pt;" width="78" span="6"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt; width: 59pt;" width="78" height="20">Year</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">Team</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">ERA</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">Defense Rank</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">FIP</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">xFIP</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2004</td> <td class="xl63">NYY</td> <td class="xl63">4.91</td> <td class="xl63">30th</td> <td class="xl64">4.78</td> <td class="xl64">4.44</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2005</td> <td class="xl63">ARI</td> <td class="xl63">4.42</td> <td class="xl63">27th</td> <td class="xl64">4.06</td> <td class="xl64">3.31</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2006</td> <td class="xl63">CHW</td> <td class="xl63">4.84</td> <td class="xl63">27th</td> <td class="xl64">3.86</td> <td class="xl64">4.05</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2007</td> <td class="xl63">CHW</td> <td class="xl63">3.74</td> <td class="xl63">28th</td> <td class="xl64">3.80</td> <td class="xl64">3.72</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2008</td> <td class="xl63">CHW</td> <td class="xl63">4.67</td> <td class="xl63">21st</td> <td class="xl64">3.74</td> <td class="xl64">3.85</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2009</td> <td class="xl63">ATL</td> <td class="xl63">2.87</td> <td class="xl63">20th</td> <td class="xl64">2.77</td> <td class="xl64">2.82</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

[jeremym480]

Re: Who will win the world series?

>My face when people didn't think the Yankees had the best rotation in baseball

Go ahead and make that silly face again because I like the Red Sox rotation better but, not by much. However, the Yankee's have the best lineup from top to bottom in baseball. So, they can out-score just about anyone.

[Bigworm]

Re: Who will win the world series?

My guess is the Minnesota Twins. I'm sure I will get ripped but oh well. Why the Twins? Because they have a very good lineup now top to bottom, their bullpen will be improved (particularly the 'setup' guy with Neshek back & apparently feeling better then ever and Jessie Crain with another year under his belt since his surgery), Lariano pitching well and supposedly has his velocity and slider back to what it was a couple seasons ago before his surgery (so maybe a 'true ace' at the top of the rotation for a change), the typical solid defense (now with the improvement of the all important middle infield), a pretty solid starting rotation (not as great as the Yankees, etc but still solid), one of the best closers in the league (expect a 'bounce back' and maybe a few new facial twitches after last seasons playoff disappointment from Nathan), a new stadium, new uniforms, etc. Also, one thing the Twins have that other teams don't seem to have (which may be the biggest reason I think they win it all), they have 'heart' - they play hard all the time no matter what. Of course only time will tell, but nobody gives the Twins any 'love'. Heck, I'd be surprised if any of the 'experts' even pick the Twins to win the AL Central despite the fact they are right in the thick of things year after year. GO TWINS!!!

[bukktown]

Re: Who will win the world series?

With ERA, pitchers take too much credit and too much blame. ERA is too dependent on home ballpark, score keeping, defense, etc. A pitcher is in direct control of three things. Throwing balls, throwing strikes, and not giving up homeruns (which is also dependent on his homepark to an extent). The rest of it is decided by his defense. Great defenses can shrink a pitcher's ERA (Washburn in Seattle last year) and bad defenses can bloat a pitcher's ERA.

Javier Vazquez is a perfect example of a pitcher who I think is really good that, with the exception of last year, never had a great ERA. He's played for some TERRIBLE defenses the last 6 years. If you look at his FIP and xFIP numbers he's one of the better pitchers in the league. FIP/xFIP are fielding independent metrics that take away defensive influence and are formatted to be similar to ERA.

<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 354pt;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="468"><col style="width: 59pt;" width="78" span="6"> <tbody><tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height: 15pt; width: 59pt;" width="78" height="20">Year</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">Team</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">ERA</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">Defense Rank</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">FIP</td> <td class="xl65" style="width: 59pt;" width="78">xFIP</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2004</td> <td class="xl63">NYY</td> <td class="xl63">4.91</td> <td class="xl63">30th</td> <td class="xl64">4.78</td> <td class="xl64">4.44</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2005</td> <td class="xl63">ARI</td> <td class="xl63">4.42</td> <td class="xl63">27th</td> <td class="xl64">4.06</td> <td class="xl64">3.31</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2006</td> <td class="xl63">CHW</td> <td class="xl63">4.84</td> <td class="xl63">27th</td> <td class="xl64">3.86</td> <td class="xl64">4.05</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2007</td> <td class="xl63">CHW</td> <td class="xl63">3.74</td> <td class="xl63">28th</td> <td class="xl64">3.80</td> <td class="xl64">3.72</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2008</td> <td class="xl63">CHW</td> <td class="xl63">4.67</td> <td class="xl63">21st</td> <td class="xl64">3.74</td> <td class="xl64">3.85</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 15pt;" height="20"> <td class="xl63" style="height: 15pt;" height="20">2009</td> <td class="xl63">ATL</td> <td class="xl63">2.87</td> <td class="xl63">20th</td> <td class="xl64">2.77</td> <td class="xl64">2.82</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

I am not sure how those numbers compare to league averages but I respect your opinion onVazquez and retract my " average" statement.

[z Revis]

Re: Who will win the world series?

The Yankees. No one is beating them in a 7 game series. Sorry to break it to all of you.