Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

[albsur2003]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Let's keep this debate going. I understand that he could have changed his approach but I've looked at more in depth numbers and while numbers aren't everything, it just doesn't look as if that much has changed. I went to Fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...B/OF#pitchtype) and not only has Bautista become INSANELY effective against the fastball, he's also become WAY more effective against the cutter, slider, and curveball. It's not like he's selling out for the fastball, he's doing WAY more damage with ALL pitches.

I'd say his pitch recognition hasn't changed, he's just able to swing harder and faster. Now this maybe from hard work and coaching like he's said and getting his swing started earlier. I just don't believe it like yall do. The guy in 2009 who went from hitting 7 homeruns over 400' to hitting 32 homeruns over 400' in 2010. This just doesn't seem like a guy who just figured out his swing and is recognizing his pitches better, it seems like a guy who's pretty much got the same setup but is just much stronger and faster and is able to get to pitches he hasn't been able to get to his whole career. And he's doing massive damage when he gets to the pitches. STEROIDS!

[Dog]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

It is hard not to at least think of steroids. If anyone has taken a statistics course, you would know that all the numbers should clump around the mean. So if he doesn't continue hitting a lot of home runs after this year, well, you know what everyone will suspect.

http://sports.gather.com/viewArticle.action?articleId=281474978554018

To be honest, I don't want him to be on steroids. I want to just get past all the steroid talk, but it is hard not to think steroids in this case

[rsox]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Benefit of the doubt to Bautista since he has been tested for steroids and has not failed a test. New batting stance, high leg kick with uppercut swing. and swining at every pitch like he is going to come out of his shoes has led to a monster season. Lets see what happens next season when he no longer plays for Cito Gaston and see if his next manager, be it in Toronto or somewhere else tries to mess with his swing.

[steelcurtain311]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

To be fair, when he was in Pittsburgh's system, his power was raved about. They felt we had a 30 HR guy right off the bat. He never worked out, because he sucked, but it's not like his power came out of seemingly nowhere. The guy was a power prospect coming up. Now, does that mean I thought he would hit 40+ HR's in his 30's, years later? Obviously not. This is the most shocking turn around I've seen in a long time.

I seriously doubt he ever hits within 10 HR's close to whatever he finishes with, again. If he's not on roids, then this is the flukiest fluke that ever fluked.

[albsur2003]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

To be fair, when he was in Pittsburgh's system, his power was raved about. They felt we had a 30 HR guy right off the bat. He never worked out, because he sucked, but it's not like his power came out of seemingly nowhere. The guy was a power prospect coming up. Now, does that mean I thought he would hit 40+ HR's in his 30's, years later? Obviously not. This is the most shocking turn around I've seen in a long time.

I seriously doubt he ever hits within 10 HR's close to whatever he finishes with, again. If he's not on roids, then this is the flukiest fluke that ever fluked.

Flukier than Brady Anderson? Haha.

[steelcurtain311]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Well, Brady wasn't a fluke. He was just juiced out of his mind.

[Speedy]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Well, Brady wasn't a fluke. He was just juiced out of his mind.

If it's an anomole (spelling?) like Brady Anderson's then yes, it could suspected Bautista is on steriods. But like Posnanski said in one of his articles, if it is the start of continued performance were he hits like 30+ HRs for the next 4-5 seasons then no.

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2010/09/22/jose-bautista-and-the-big-5-0/

When David Ortiz hit 31 homers in 2003 — 15 of them in his last 34 games — it felt kind of fluky. Ortiz had enough of a muddled career in Minnesota that the Twins released him rather than pay him arbitration money. The Red Sox had an in-house battle about keeping him on the team. The sudden rash of home runs felt fluky, and Ortiz was turning 28 that year so he wasn’t exactly a kid. The next year, though, he hit 41 home runs. Then 47. Then 54. And it was clear that Papi was no fluke.

When Kirby Puckett’s power emerged out of nowhere — 31 homers in 1986 after hitting four the year before — that was viewed as a fluke. But it wasn’t. It was a career-high, but Puckett had other years when he hit 28, 24, 23, 22 homers… 31 is not wildly out of line with those numbers.

Right now, Bautista’s year seems bizarre, but if he hits 41 homers next year, 38 the following, 46 the year after that, well, then this season will suddenly feel right in line with his talent. And that could happen. Yes, developing sudden power like this at 29 is uncommon, no doubt about it. But it’s not unprecedented.

[Dog]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

The thing is that David Ortiz was alleged to use steroids too.


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/sp.../31doping.html

[SPTO]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Not to open a can of worms, but that 1973 Braves team has actually been "linked" to 'roids. That year the team had 3 players hit 40+ home runs including the aforementioned Johnson. Tom House, a reliever and later pitching coach, was on the team and has admitted to doing and distributing 'roids during his time in the majors. There have always been suspicions that Johnson was on something that year.

GAH!

I forgot about that.

"puts that part of my pro-Bautista argument in the drawer" I'm actually surprised no one has wondered about how clean Nolan Ryan was at the end of his career as House was his pitching coach in Texas but that's a whole other story (but if you have any thoughts on that please elaborate)

[albsur2003]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

The thing is that David Ortiz was alleged to use steroids too.


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/31/sp.../31doping.html

I love David Ortiz, I was pissed when I heard he was on that '03 list. He had bigtime power in the minors, he had power with the Twins. Then when he got to a better park for his type of swing (Fenway), he exploded while in his prime. I would have not been surprised if he was clean. But I guess numbers are funny like that. That's why even though I think Bautista is an open shut case, who knows? ****, he may be clean haha.

On a sidenote, if someone gave you the 2003 "steroid" list, would you not read it and burn it or read it and send it to your friends? I still feel like they need to release that list.

[x_NBA_x]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Bautista is far from using steroids. Just looking at him you can see he doesn't. No side effects, no enlarged traps, spots, bloated face ( depending on what one ). If anything he looks like a scrawny guy who gives every hit his all and has learned to push through with his whole body and not just swing round and use the arms.

[Dog]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

I love David Ortiz, I was pissed when I heard he was on that '03 list. He had bigtime power in the minors, he had power with the Twins. Then when he got to a better park for his type of swing (Fenway), he exploded while in his prime. I would have not been surprised if he was clean. But I guess numbers are funny like that. That's why even though I think Bautista is an open shut case, who knows? ****, he may be clean haha.

On a sidenote, if someone gave you the 2003 "steroid" list, would you not read it and burn it or read it and send it to your friends? I still feel like they need to release that list.

I liked Ortiz as well.




And if I got my hands on that list, I would read the **** out of it and tell everyone

[rsox]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Dustin Pedroia has a strong "swing out of his shoes" uppercut swing and if he were about 4 or 5 inches taller would probably hit a ton of Home Runs too.

And being that Bautista was considered to be a power prospect in the Pirates orginization that is where (and i believe it was already mentioned) ballpark factors come into play. Bautista is a dead pull hitter. Rogers Centre is 328 down the LF line and 375 to leftcenter. PNC Park is 325 down the LF line at it's odd angle but is 389 to leftcenter so it is no surprise that 33 of Bautista's HR's have come at home this season.

[DrJones]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

Flukier than Brady Anderson? Haha.

Way flukier. Anderson didn't even lead the league in homers the year he hit 50. Bautista has hit 14 more home runs than anyone else in the AL. Fourteen!

[DrJones]

Re: Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

To hammer home what you're saying Bautista has consistently said this year that he feels very comfortable in Toronto and that he attributes much of his success this year to the coaching of Dwayne Murphy and Cito Gaston. I'm tellin' you the PED argument for Bautista doesn't quite fit.

If this is true, both Murphy and Cito should be immediately enshrined in Cooperstown. Last time someone led their league in HR by 14+? Mickey Mantle in 1956.