Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

[Sportsforever]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

Kinda hard to be a bad defender at 1B.

Just sayin'

Adam Dunn disagrees. That said, I somewhat agree with you. I think it is just as hard to be an exceptional defender at 1b.

[lonewolf371]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

No way 2007 was much better than 2010. Anyway, I am not denying Albert will decline at some point and we may be seeing that. I just haven't seen anything to indicate to me so far that he is in that decline.

Only if you completely ignore defense. 2007 was by far his best defensive year (UZR of 24.7, ridiculous to do that from 1st base). Even still, he had a higher average and got on base more in 2007.

Note that with Pujols, decline doesn't mean playing like he's barely above AAA and getting benched. For him, decline is playing like Mark Teixeira. It's relative and that's where I'm saying it looks like he's headed right now.

Pujols in 2010 - 1.011 OPS and a 7.0 WAR

Bautista in 2010 - .995 OPS and a 5.7 WAR

Pujols is also undoubtedly the better defender.

Pujols from 2010-2011: 0.957 OPS 8.0 WAR

Bautista from 2010-2011: 1.062 OPS and a 10.9 WAR

By the way I used Fangraphs instead of Pro Baseball reference.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

Pujols in 2010 - 1.011 OPS and a 7.0 WAR

Bautista in 2010 - .995 OPS and a 5.7 WAR

I'm not sure I understand the point of posting their OPS values as if a .016 edge in OPS were terribly significant. FWIW, they were virtually similar in wOBA, wRC+, EqA, and VORP. They were equally great at the plate last year.

Pujols is also undoubtedly the better defender.

Much better relative to his position than Bautista is to his, but Bautista does play much harder positions.

[Vince]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

Yeah, Bau played 48 games at 3rd last year......

[BatsareBugs]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

Eh, I'm pretty sure Pujols could've played 3rd or the corner outfield pretty well, but ended up at first because the Cardinals didn't want him to blow out his arm (or something like that).

I would take Pujols over Bautista, but Bautista has been a monster ever since he figured things out. Very few power hitters put up monstrous home run totals in the minors like Jerry Sands and Mike Stanton, but Bautista did have 24 I think once in a full season in the minors (insert minor league stats don't matter comment here).

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

Okay, let's see here:

1) BA of .312 was the lowest of his career
2) OBP of .414 was his lowest in eight seasons
3) SLG of .596 was his lowest in three seasons
4) K% of 12.9% was his highest in nine seasons
5) BB% of 14.7% was his lowest in three seasons
6) WAR of 7.3 was his lowest in eight seasons

What's really concerning is what's happened to start this season. ZiPS right now has him batting .306/.407/.568 the rest of the season (slightly sub-Pujolsian), but even if he did that he would finish the year around .295/.389/.526, decidedly below his career levels.

How is that not decline?

Because there's been a downward trend throughout the league in offensive production.

You simply can't compare 2010 numbers to numbers he started accumulating 10 years ago, in a much higher scoring era, without appropriate context. If you adjust for league, Pujols put up a 173 OPS+ in 2010, higher than his 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005, and 2007 seasons; certainly not as good as his 2008 and 2009 seasons, but hardly the decline you're making it out to be.

2007 was a much better year than 2010 (at least if you count defense), and I doubt he followed it up with so poor an April in 2008. People get old.

And small sample UZRs (especially from 1B) should be taken with a grain of salt.

They're good for a cursory glance, but it's highly questionable to use a statistic known for wild fluctuations as a basis for stating that Pujols was "much better" in one year than the other, especially when 2010 Pujols had a better year at the plate than 2007 Pujols.

[lonewolf371]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

Because there's been a downward trend throughout the league in offensive production.

You simply can't compare 2010 numbers to numbers he started accumulating 10 years ago, in a much higher scoring era, without appropriate context. If you adjust for league, Pujols put up a 173 OPS+ in 2010, higher than his 2001, 2002, 2005, and 2007 seasons; certainly not as good as his 2008 and 2009 seasons, but hardly the decline you're making it out to be.

The downward trend in offensive production is looking at the aggregate and doesn't really apply to Pujols himself. It's a huge mistake to compare the league to Pujols because it completely ignores Pujols' specific situation (which should have improved with the acquisition of Holliday for protection), not to mention the main factor in declining offensive performance is a due to a large number of offensive superstars getting caught with steroids or getting old. It also makes Bautista's case even stronger.

So far this year, Pujols has 184 PAs. At this point in time, his line drive rate has stabilized, and it's also the lowest of his career. His strikeout rate and contact rate should also have stabilized, and he's actually improved in those areas. The main problem is his swings haven't been of the same quality that they used to be, and his league-leading GDP might be reflective of that.

And small sample UZRs (especially from 1B) should be taken with a grain of salt.

They're good for a cursory glance, but it's highly questionable to use a statistic known for wild fluctuations as a basis for stating that Pujols was "much better" in one year than the other, especially when 2010 Pujols had a better year at the plate than 2007 Pujols.

Correct, but the three-year period with 2007 sandwiched in the middle stands out as by far Pujols' best period defensively, so I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that his defensive performance peaked in 2007 even based on a one-season sample size.

In any case, I'll admit that 2007 was worse than 2010 offensively, but it wasn't worse by all that much.

[Chip Douglass]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

The downward trend in offensive production is looking at the aggregate and doesn't really apply to Pujols himself. It's a huge mistake to compare the league to Pujols because it completely ignores Pujols' specific situation (which should have improved with the acquisition of Holliday for protection), not to mention the main factor in declining offensive performance is a due to a large number of offensive superstars getting caught with steroids or getting old. It also makes Bautista's case even stronger.

And it's an equally huge mistake to attribute all of his "decline" to age when offensive numbers throughout the league declined (and are declining again this season).

I just didn't think it was fair to post his rate statistics without any context or claim that 2010 was the beginning of a downward trend.

[mgoblue678]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

I think people need to be remember that Jose Bautista has only been putting up great numbers for basically a year and 40 some odd games. I want to see him put up these great numbers for an extended 5-10 year stretch like some of the other top hitters have, before anointing the guy and putting him clearly above those guys.

The numbers he is putting up so far this year are ridiculous, but he will slow down at some point. He is still only a career .250 hitter, so I would at least expect his average to come down significantly from where it is now.

[Vince]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

...

No one is putting him above anyone except if we are talking about right now.

[SPTO]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

I think people need to be remember that Jose Bautista has only been putting up great numbers for basically a year and 40 some odd games. I want to see him put up these great numbers for an extended 5-10 year stretch like some of the other top hitters have, before anointing the guy and putting him clearly above those guys.

Whoops didn't mean to thank this post...

Anyways like Vince said no one is putting Bautista ahead of anyone long term we're just talking about RIGHT NOW.

Oh and actually I hate to be "the guy" but well he's been putting up great numbers closer to a year and a half (aprox. a year and 71 games)

[rsox]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

What Bautista is doing is not all that unlike what David Ortiz did when he went to Boston.

Ortiz showed signs of power in Minnesota and exploded to go on a 5 year run where he was as dangerous a hitter as there was in the major league. Bautista showed signs of power in Pittsburgh and has now exploded to become as dangerous a hitter as there is in the major league. Will he keep it up over the next 3-4 years?, who knows. Right now give him his credit.

[CWood2]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

Can't disagree with any of you Jay fans. And frankly, watching this guy emerge has been one of my favorite stories in baseball. I love every aspect of his game.

[bukktown]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

He really opens his hips nice on those low inside pitches.

He puts balls in seats that 99% of the guys in the league would pound off of their foot.

[12]

Re: Jose Bautista is the best player in baseball

Why are some people saying that Bautista needs to prove himself further?

The first post clearly said "right now." As in this season, and parts of last season as well...

It can't be argued really. Not right now.