6/4 - 6/10 MLB Game Discussion Thread

[snepp]

Re: 6/4 - 6/10 MLB Game Discussion Thread

Counting stats suck, they've played the fewest games in the NL.

They're 12th in the NL in walk rate and 10th in strikeout rate, that's a very, very mediocre combination. Even their groundball rate isn't anything special, 9th in the NL.

[letsgopens66]

Re: 6/4 - 6/10 MLB Game Discussion Thread

He's right, there has been quite a bit of smoke and mirrors with their pitching. Just because their ERA is good now doesn't mean that's how good they actually are. It's been shown that an advanced pitching measure like FIP (or any of the various others) will predict future ERA considerably better than ERA itself, and none of those measures see them as better than middle of the pack in the NL.

And he didn't say anything remotely close to ground ball pitchers not succeeding.

He just made it sound like pitchers have to be strikeout pros in order to succeed, which obviously isn't true.

FIP (according to BP)

AJ Burnett FIP: 3.23
James McDonald FIP: 2.80
Erik Bedard FIP: 3.56
Kevin Correia FIP: 5.69
Charlie Morton FIP: 4.20

Like I said, Morton and Correia are the weak ends of the rotation. However, FIP (a good predictor of future ERA) is holding true for Burnett, McDonald and Bedard.

[lonewolf371]

Re: 6/4 - 6/10 MLB Game Discussion Thread

He just made it sound like pitchers have to be strikeout pros in order to succeed, which obviously isn't true.

FIP (according to BP)

AJ Burnett FIP: 3.23
James McDonald FIP: 2.80
Erik Bedard FIP: 3.56
Kevin Correia FIP: 5.69
Charlie Morton FIP: 4.20

Like I said, Morton and Correia are the weak ends of the rotation. However, FIP (a good predictor of future ERA) is holding true for Burnett, McDonald and Bedard.

Where did I say you have to strike guys out? You can strike them out or have freakish control; either way works. The problem is the Pirates don't really have players that do either, and I don't trust Bedard and Burnett to hold up over a season. McDonald is legit, though. I could see him being good for awhile.

And as for groundball pitchers: way overrated. It helps, but most good ground ball pitchers either strike guys out or rarely hand out walks. Take Doug Fister, in my opinion one of the best groundball pitchers. He walks only 2.1 batters per nine and has a walk rate of less than 2 batters per nine for most of his career. Therein lies success with an 89 mph fastball.

[letsgopens66]

Re: 6/4 - 6/10 MLB Game Discussion Thread

Where did I say you have to strike guys out? You can strike them out or have freakish control; either way works. The problem is the Pirates don't really have players that do either, and I don't trust Bedard and Burnett to hold up over a season. McDonald is legit, though. I could see him being good for awhile.

And as for groundball pitchers: way overrated. It helps, but most good ground ball pitchers either strike guys out or rarely hand out walks. Take Doug Fister, in my opinion one of the best groundball pitchers. He walks only 2.1 batters per nine and has a walk rate of less than 2 batters per nine for most of his career. Therein lies success with an 89 mph fastball.

Fair enough. If there's anyone that wouldn't hold up over the season, I'd say it would be Bedard. After watching all of AJ's starts this season, I think he'll hold up just fine