Re: 2014 MLB Trade Deadline Thread
Fair points, however I see why the Jays made the trade. They obviously do not see (or value) Kratz' pitch framing for what it may be. And since they do not, how much good would he do on the bench and catching just once a week?
To the regression to the mean statement, I feel it's more likely that Valencia holds his value against left-handed pitching than Kratz suddenly becoming a well above-average hitter to make up for his sub-par year-to-date performance. I understand that platoon splits normalize around 1,000 at-bats and it may very well be that Valencia's previous success against opposite-hand pitching is a fluke. However, even if he regresses a little I think his value combined with his expected playing time (as compared to Kratz') will outweigh what Kratz' brings as a pitch-framer.
Plus Kratz is 34 (I know catchers actually maintain their value at a better rate than most positions) but decline is still to come.
Now, I'm just a novice when it comes to Statistical theory but I'm trying to learn. So if I'm off-base with my assumptions, I'd love to understand why.
Fair points, however I see why the Jays made the trade. They obviously do not see (or value) Kratz' pitch framing for what it may be. And since they do not, how much good would he do on the bench and catching just once a week?
To the regression to the mean statement, I feel it's more likely that Valencia holds his value against left-handed pitching than Kratz suddenly becoming a well above-average hitter to make up for his sub-par year-to-date performance. I understand that platoon splits normalize around 1,000 at-bats and it may very well be that Valencia's previous success against opposite-hand pitching is a fluke. However, even if he regresses a little I think his value combined with his expected playing time (as compared to Kratz') will outweigh what Kratz' brings as a pitch-framer.
Plus Kratz is 34 (I know catchers actually maintain their value at a better rate than most positions) but decline is still to come.
Now, I'm just a novice when it comes to Statistical theory but I'm trying to learn. So if I'm off-base with my assumptions, I'd love to understand why.
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