2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

[DamnYanks2]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Disclaimer: I'm using really simple math here.

Cole has two years left of arbitration until he hits FA. While I don't know where they will land for sure, lets say 20 M total for two years. Over his career so far, he has been worth about 3 WAR per year, so lets say about 25 M per year of value. This would mean Cole has a surplus value of 30 M over the remnants of his contract, assuming he does not improve at all. If he was to put up 5.5 WAR seasons like he did in 2015, then he's worth 70 M in surplus and demands a much bigger kind of return. What is Cole actually worth in surplus value? 50M?

Torres just turned 21, and laid waste at AAA next year. He's be a centerpiece of a surefire ace kind of deal, and his surplus value is closer to 60 M, based on this article:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valu...100-prospects/

Take it with a grain of salt. Each team is going to value players differently. The valuation takes into account the chance that they end up busting, all the way to a Judge-like season where the player doubles up on his prospect value in 1 year.

By the same article, Frazier is worth about 38 M. Due to Cole's upside, I'd figure he's be a fair centerpiece for Cole. Him, and a few lower level prospects, and you might have a deal. Alternatively, the Pirates may decide they want to spread out their risk (or don't like Frazier), and ask for a Sheffield, Mateo and Adams or something like that.

At the end of the day, based on what the Pirate's payroll limitations are, they're in a position where they are always listening on their guys. At this point, both teams are probably just doing their due diligence.

This is why I didn't mind the Marlins' return on Ozuna. Ozuna isn't as good as Cole, and he's owned more through arbitration. Through the above estimations, the Marlins got about 40 M in prospect value, which is reasonable. On the other hand, this same calculation would lend the return on Dee Gordon as low, and we'll save the Stanton deal for another day.

Torres will not be an option. He's basically untouchable. Can't blame the Pirates FO for asking about the Yankees top prospect. But he's not going anywhere.

It will be centered around Frazier more then likely. Also Mateo is out of question because he was already traded in a package that got Sonny Gray.



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[Trapper700]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Cole is definitely worth Clint Frazier, who has not really had the minor league production to match his massive hype. He's a tools before production type. I question his ability to play good defense. I question his ability to develop strike zone discipline....or to bash enough to make up for likely poor discipline. Frazier reminds me of Javy Baez without the sizzle on defense, but as an outfielder. As much hype as Baez has gotten, he's yet to post a 3 WAR season.

That’s actually the perfect comp for Frazier. Both scouting reports said they had 80 bat speed and compared them to Gary Sheffield. I think Yankees fans have been massively overrating him and are guilty of prospect hugging once again. I wouldn’t be as sad as most others seem to be if they traded him for Cole (until he eventually turns into a perennial all star to make a fool out of me).

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

That’s actually the perfect comp for Frazier. Both scouting reports said they had 80 bat speed and compared them to Gary Sheffield. I think Yankees fans have been massively overrating him and are guilty of prospect hugging once again. I wouldn’t be as sad as most others seem to be if they traded him for Cole (until he eventually turns into a perennial all star to make a fool out of me).

I think if anything people would be underrating Cole. I'd wager a lot of us haven't seen a ton of him, so you look at his stats... And they aren't great. So it becomes easy to disregard him completely, say he isn't worth this or that, when we don't need him in the first place. Pirates fans I've heard from say he's an emotional head case, hardly something you'd give up a lot of value for in one of the highest pressure environments in the game.

So they don't get stuck in a Manny Machado situation. There's been a lot of reports they are looking to rebuild (or re-tool) and Gerrit Cole would bring the best return on the team I believe.

That's my guess at least, they see the writing on the wall and want to maximize return now as opposed to getting less when he only has 1 season of control left.

I was trying to figure out who is the guy the Pirates are paying that prevents them from paying him, but the Pirates sub made it clear the owner just doesn't spend money. Nothing to see here, just business as usual I guess.

[DamnYanks2]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

That’s actually the perfect comp for Frazier. Both scouting reports said they had 80 bat speed and compared them to Gary Sheffield. I think Yankees fans have been massively overrating him and are guilty of prospect hugging once again. I wouldn’t be as sad as most others seem to be if they traded him for Cole (until he eventually turns into a perennial all star to make a fool out of me).

I fell in love with Fraziers bat speed. But I don't think he's going to be a superstar. I think he will be a solid player. But the Yankees are so flush at the OF spot I feel like he is expendable. Especially if you consider Bryce Harper still in play next year. And Florial has major upside. And may be the centerfielder of the future, albeit hes a long way from playing at this level. But I'm not worried about the outfield.

Every prospect is not gonna pan out. It's easy to prospect hug. But the Yankees have developed three amazing core pieces already. Sevy,Judge, Sanchez and you could even throw Monty in there. Torres might be next.

Having a stacked farm is great but alot of those prospects should be used as trade bait. That's why you develop a strong farm system. You can get the best of both worlds.











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[Sportsforever]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I think that Torres is a fantastic prospect, but I really don't get the love that he has gotten. Nothing he has done in the Minor Leagues screams super star to me.

I find it surprising that NY would make him "untouchable", but they know more than me.

[Trapper700]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I think that Torres is a fantastic prospect, but I really don't get the love that he has gotten. Nothing he has done in the Minor Leagues screams super star to me.

I find it surprising that NY would make him "untouchable", but they know more than me.

Although Torres’ season was cut short, he OPSed exactly .863 in both AA and AAA last year as a 20 year old (and 1.158 in the AFL before that at 19 y/o). That’s really good and better than Francisco Lindor did at the same age and levels (AA - .741 OPS, AAA - .695, AFL - .753).

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Although Torres’ season was cut short, he OPSed exactly .863 in both AA and AAA last year as a 20 year old (and 1.158 in the AFL before that at 19 y/o). That’s really good and better than Francisco Lindor did at the same age and levels (AA - .741 OPS, AAA - .695, AFL - .753).

Right...but Ozzie Albies put up an 858 OPS at AA as a 19 year old, but nobody is predicting super stardom for him. When I see Torres, I see the potential, but I see him being more of a regular than a star. Hey, these people usually know what they are doing, but it also seems like Yankee prospects get more "hype" than they end up being worth.

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Is there a quote of Cashman calling Torres untouchable or are you referring to writers and fans calling him that?

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Right...but Ozzie Albies put up an 858 OPS at AA as a 19 year old, but nobody is predicting super stardom for him. When I see Torres, I see the potential, but I see him being more of a regular than a star. Hey, these people usually know what they are doing, but it also seems like Yankee prospects get more "hype" than they end up being worth.

I agree. I never saw him as a budding star when he was in the Cubs' organization either. Yankees fans are a bit enraptured with Torres...but remember he was a guy they got in a package for a rental Aroldis Chapman. Meaning the Cubs' brass also didn't think he would be a future star. Theo doesn't make that move if he sees a bunch of ASG appearances in Torres' future. Would've traded Addison Russell instead.

Gleyber Torres is certainly a good talent and has a pretty high floor as a .270 hitter with 15-20 HR and slightly above average defense at SS. He's not a power hitter. He's not a savant with the bat who's gonna win batting titles. He doesn't have a cannon of an arm. He is not a burner. He's not a future Gold Glover at SS or even a guy that will definitely stick at SS after his arm injury. So, well-rounded regular most likely at SS is not a bad outcome, but it's the most likely outcome for Gleyber.

It's a natural thing for a Cubs fan to compare him to Starlin Castro and there are some similarities. Castro was playing in the bigs at 20 years old (which Torres might have been also if he stayed healthy). Torres walks more and hits more home runs. Castro strikes out less and has much better bat-to-ball skills. On defense, Torres could be considered steadier and less gaffe-prone, but Castro has the better arm (and had the better range until he gained a ton of weight).

I do agree that I'd trade Clint Frazier before I'd trade Gleyber Torres, mainly because Torres gives you a useful player at SS and Frazier comes with more question marks and as an OF.

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Is there a quote of Cashman calling Torres untouchable or are you referring to writers and fans calling him that?

Nothing official from Cashman...just reading other team's media regarding trade discussions with the Yankees. For example, Detroit media reported that when discussing Fulmer, the Yankees intimated that he was untouchable. Again, not official...and that is why I'm expressing surprise if he actually is. Just doesn't seem like anyone should be untouchable if it brings you back what you need. I think we can all agree the Yankees are all in for the next few years.

[Sportsforever]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

I agree. I never saw him as a budding star when he was in the Cubs' organization either. Yankees fans are a bit enraptured with Torres...but remember he was a guy they got in a package for a rental Aroldis Chapman. Meaning the Cubs' brass also didn't think he would be a future star. Theo doesn't make that move if he sees a bunch of ASG appearances in Torres' future. Would've traded Addison Russell instead.

Gleyber Torres is certainly a good talent and has a pretty high floor as a .270 hitter with 15-20 HR and slightly above average defense at SS. He's not a power hitter. He's not a savant with the bat who's gonna win batting titles. He doesn't have a cannon of an arm. He is not a burner. He's not a future Gold Glover at SS or even a guy that will definitely stick at SS after his arm injury. So, well-rounded regular most likely at SS is not a bad outcome, but it's the most likely outcome for Gleyber.

It's a natural thing for a Cubs fan to compare him to Starlin Castro and there are some similarities. Castro was playing in the bigs at 20 years old (which Torres might have been also if he stayed healthy). Torres walks more and hits more home runs. Castro strikes out less and has much better bat-to-ball skills. On defense, Torres could be considered steadier and less gaffe-prone, but Castro has the better arm (and had the better range until he gained a ton of weight).

I do agree that I'd trade Clint Frazier before I'd trade Gleyber Torres, mainly because Torres gives you a useful player at SS and Frazier comes with more question marks and as an OF.

Great post. I mean, Torres was considered a really good prospect, but it was like he was traded to the Yankees and turned into the second coming of ARod (granted, his performance in the AFL drove a lot of the hype, IMO). No one ever knows with prospects, but he just strikes me as a solid, MLB starter/regular and not future MVP/AS.

Spoiler

10 years from now when he wins his 3rd MVP, someone is going to dig up this post...

[WaitTilNextYear]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Although Torres’ season was cut short, he OPSed exactly .863 in both AA and AAA last year as a 20 year old (and 1.158 in the AFL before that at 19 y/o). That’s really good and better than Francisco Lindor did at the same age and levels (AA - .741 OPS, AAA - .695, AFL - .753).

Lindor has always been considered a future Gold Glover, and as a switch-hitter, he's always had a really high floor. It's true that what Lindor's done in MLB in terms of power sort of came out of nowhere if you look at his MiLB numbers (he hit 21 HRs in his entire MiLB career over almost 2000 PA and 33 just last year in MLB). Some guys do that, maybe Torres could also. I wouldn't expect him to become a force like Lindor has, however. In particular, Torres doesn't quite have the contact skills that Lindor had shown at those same levels.

[Trapper700]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Right...but Ozzie Albies put up an 858 OPS at AA as a 19 year old, but nobody is predicting super stardom for him. When I see Torres, I see the potential, but I see him being more of a regular than a star. Hey, these people usually know what they are doing, but it also seems like Yankee prospects get more "hype" than they end up being worth.

I think you're experiencing confirmation bias here.

Ozzie Albies struggled in AAA but was still projected to put up more WAR over his first 6 seasons (according to Fangraphs' KATOH projections) than all but 7 other prospects in all of baseball as recently as last February, which includes Gleyber Torres. Most prospect lists before this past season also had Albies above Torres.
Fangraphs also had an article this past August with projections for Albies saying that he has a 1 in 4 chance of being a 20+ WAR player over the next 6 seasons, which would make him one of the best second basemen in baseball.

But other than that, Albies has a much lower ceiling than Torres or even Acuna because of his size and lack of power. Torres has been increasing his overall hit and power projections every year in scouts' eyes.

[Speedy]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Brewers sign Boone Logan.

This guy is still around?

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: 2017-2018 MLB Hot Stove Thread

Nothing official from Cashman...just reading other team's media regarding trade discussions with the Yankees. For example, Detroit media reported that when discussing Fulmer, the Yankees intimated that he was untouchable. Again, not official...and that is why I'm expressing surprise if he actually is. Just doesn't seem like anyone should be untouchable if it brings you back what you need. I think we can all agree the Yankees are all in for the next few years.

I agree with you, and I'm pretty sure Cashman does as well. I don't think anyone is truly untouchable. I didn't follow the Detroit side, but on our side, the only guy I can see who reported Gleyber with the word untouchable is Sweeny Murti, who I know mostly as the guy who put Francesa to sleep that one time.

There's so many people in our media, I think people try to report the same story with their own twist. Gleyber is in a special position though because he's expected to be a pretty decent starter. So trading him would then involve having to find another 2nd baseman. I also think they're looking at the fact that Moncada was traded in a deal that landed the Red Sox Chris Sale, and dont want to take an L in comparison. I don't think they feel they're in a position where the piece they need should cost the teams top prospect.

Basically, he's not untouchable. But for Gerrit Cole? Yeah, he's untouchable. If Jose Fernandez was alive, the Marlins would have Gleyber right now.