9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

Collapse

Recommended Videos

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Master Live 013
    Hall Of Fame
    • Oct 2013
    • 12418

    #316
    Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

    Lets take Verlander as an example:

    1st in fWAR, 3rd in bWAR, 1st in WARP, 3rd in FIP, 3rd in XFIP, 1st in SIERRA, 1st in K-BB%, 1st in WHIP, 3rd in ERA-, 3rd in ERA+.

    On traditional side: tied for 5th in wins. 3rd in ERA. 1st in innings pitch.

    I can make a good argument that Justin should win the AL Cy Young. I could go through the others but I think my point has been made.
    OSHA Inspector for the NBA.

    Comment

    • Sportsforever
      NL MVP
      • Mar 2005
      • 20368

      #317
      Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

      Originally posted by Master Live 013
      Lets take Verlander as an example:

      1st in fWAR, 3rd in bWAR, 1st in WARP, 3rd in FIP, 3rd in XFIP, 1st in SIERRA, 1st in K-BB%, 1st in WHIP, 3rd in ERA-, 3rd in ERA+.

      On traditional side: tied for 5th in wins. 3rd in ERA. 1st in innings pitch.

      I can make a good argument that Justin should win the AL Cy Young. I could go through the others but I think my point has been made.
      The interesting thing about Verlander is that as well as he's pitched on such a good team, you'd expect him to have a lot more wins. He has to be really unlucky, although I know he had a rough patch in August which costed him some wins.
      "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." - Rogers Hornsby

      Comment

      • BigOscar
        MVP
        • May 2016
        • 2971

        #318
        Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

        Originally posted by Master Live 013
        Snubbed?

        As of this morning (don't think all sites have updated their stats) Snell is 7th in fWAR, 2nd in bWAR and 5th in WARP. 6th in FIP, 7th in xFIP, 7th in SIERRA, 7th in K-BB%, 2nd in WHIP, 1st in ERA-, 1st in ERA+.

        He leads in some of the traditional stats like wins (pretty much useless as a proxy for how good a pitcher is) and ERA. He's 18th on innings pitched.

        He has had a great season, leading an out of nowhere Rays team to contention for a Wild Card, but to say that he is going to be "snubbed" like he is above and beyond the best pitcher in the AL is not true.
        He has the best ERA, which to me will forever be the most important stat for a pitcher as that's literally your job. Stop the other team scoring. I don't care how you do it, how many strikeouts you get or how many hits they got, you have to stop them scoring. That is all that matters.

        So if you do that better than everyone else, despite facing the best offences in baseball far more regularly than all your competitors, then you've been the best pitcher in baseball as far as I'm concerned.

        Innings pitched is the only other stat I'd seriously consider for a pitcher as that genuinely has an effect on your team. But when you compare how many more runs someone like Verlander has given up in those extra innings he's pitched, it's not a contest. (28 more innings pitched, but 23 more earned runs. No thanks)

        Comment

        • TripleCrown9
          Keep the Faith
          • May 2010
          • 23698

          #319
          Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

          Didi Gregorius might miss the rest of 2018, with torn cartilage in his wrist.
          Boston Red Sox
          1903 1912 1915 1916 1918 2004 2007 2013 2018
          9 4 1 8 27 6 14 45 26 34

          Comment

          • Sportsforever
            NL MVP
            • Mar 2005
            • 20368

            #320
            Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

            Originally posted by TripleCrown9
            Didi Gregorius might miss the rest of 2018, with torn cartilage in his wrist.
            I saw that...big blow if that ends up being the case.
            "People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." - Rogers Hornsby

            Comment

            • DamnYanks2
              Hall Of Fame
              • Jun 2007
              • 20794

              #321
              Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

              Originally posted by Sportsforever
              I saw that...big blow if that ends up being the case.
              Yep... this team has been hurt all ****ing year.

              Sent from my SM-J337VPP using Tapatalk

              Comment

              • countryboy
                Growing pains
                • Sep 2003
                • 52789

                #322
                Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                Cardinals complete the sweep of the Giants. Now come on D'Backs, win the series finale and allow us a little more room heading into the final 6 of the year where we face the Brewers and the Cubs.
                I can't shave with my eyes closed, meaning each day I have to look at myself in the mirror and respect who I see.

                I miss the old days of Operation Sports :(


                Louisville Cardinals/St.Louis Cardinals

                Comment

                • Mabster
                  Crunchy
                  • Mar 2009
                  • 7659

                  #323
                  Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                  BlAKe TRieNEn fOR cY YOunG.

                  He's the clear leader in all the predictors.

                  /s
                  Oakland Athletics San Jose Sharks

                  Comment

                  • WaitTilNextYear
                    Go Cubs Go
                    • Mar 2013
                    • 16830

                    #324
                    Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                    Originally posted by BigOscar
                    He has the best ERA, which to me will forever be the most important stat for a pitcher as that's literally your job. Stop the other team scoring. I don't care how you do it, how many strikeouts you get or how many hits they got, you have to stop them scoring. That is all that matters.

                    So if you do that better than everyone else, despite facing the best offences in baseball far more regularly than all your competitors, then you've been the best pitcher in baseball as far as I'm concerned.

                    Innings pitched is the only other stat I'd seriously consider for a pitcher as that genuinely has an effect on your team. But when you compare how many more runs someone like Verlander has given up in those extra innings he's pitched, it's not a contest. (28 more innings pitched, but 23 more earned runs. No thanks)
                    32.1 more innings pitched by my count after Snell's start today. That's close to 3.5 extra complete games.

                    So in other words, you'd rather simplify to only those stats that are most favorable to your guy and not even consider anything else? Noted.

                    As for ERA, you should be aware that pitchers don't control that stat 100%, which is why ERA estimators such as DIPS/FIP/xFIP/SIERA etc were invented. ERA is not a product of a pitcher working in a vacuum, but a synthesis of him, the ballparks in which he operates, the defense behind him, the teams he faces, as well as some randomness (BABIP) and decisions made by official scorers.

                    I mean we could go back to judging MVP candidates substantially by their RBI totals if we're doing just ERA for Cy Young contenders.
                    Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

                    Comment

                    • TripleCrown9
                      Keep the Faith
                      • May 2010
                      • 23698

                      #325
                      Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                      Diamondbacks are eliminated after going 5-17 over their last 22.
                      Boston Red Sox
                      1903 1912 1915 1916 1918 2004 2007 2013 2018
                      9 4 1 8 27 6 14 45 26 34

                      Comment

                      • countryboy
                        Growing pains
                        • Sep 2003
                        • 52789

                        #326
                        Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                        Damnit D’Backs


                        Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports
                        I can't shave with my eyes closed, meaning each day I have to look at myself in the mirror and respect who I see.

                        I miss the old days of Operation Sports :(


                        Louisville Cardinals/St.Louis Cardinals

                        Comment

                        • WaitTilNextYear
                          Go Cubs Go
                          • Mar 2013
                          • 16830

                          #327
                          Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                          Cubs win. Brewers win. Cards win. Status quo.

                          The Giants have me wishing MLB had relegation because they play like a triple A team against certain NL Central teams. At least the Brewers and Cards are done getting fat off the Giants for the season.
                          Chicago Cubs | Chicago Bulls | Green Bay Packers | Michigan Wolverines

                          Comment

                          • LambertandHam
                            All Star
                            • Jul 2010
                            • 8008

                            #328
                            Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                            Probably the last time JHay and Jordy are in Pirates uniforms at PNC. Hopefully the Newman and Kramer era begins next year.
                            Steam

                            PSN: BigGreenZaku

                            Comment

                            • BigOscar
                              MVP
                              • May 2016
                              • 2971

                              #329
                              Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                              Originally posted by WaitTilNextYear
                              32.1 more innings pitched by my count after Snell's start today. That's close to 3.5 extra complete games.

                              So in other words, you'd rather simplify to only those stats that are most favorable to your guy and not even consider anything else? Noted.

                              As for ERA, you should be aware that pitchers don't control that stat 100%, which is why ERA estimators such as DIPS/FIP/xFIP/SIERA etc were invented. ERA is not a product of a pitcher working in a vacuum, but a synthesis of him, the ballparks in which he operates, the defense behind him, the teams he faces, as well as some randomness (BABIP) and decisions made by official scorers.

                              I mean we could go back to judging MVP candidates substantially by their RBI totals if we're doing just ERA for Cy Young contenders.

                              I'd rather simplify to the stats that actually happened, instead of the stats invented by statisticians as to what "should" have happened if baseball followed their formula. It's a common expression in England that the only stat that matters is the score, because that's exactly the truth. Hence why I will also crown the world series winners by who wins 4 games in the world series, rather than running all the numbers and deciding who "should" have won instead.

                              Advanced metrics are probably great for scouting and help predicting future success, but they mean nothing to the current scoreboard and that's the only thing that actually matters.

                              FIP strikes me as a complete load of BS anyway tbh, as does anything that claims BABIP is random. It's obviously tied to how hard the ball is hit, so that's obviously not random. (unless anyone genuinely believes better pitchers aren't harder to get solid contact off, or that better hitters don't hit the ball hard more consistently than worse hitters)
                              Last edited by BigOscar; 09-23-2018, 07:17 PM.

                              Comment

                              • Chip Douglass
                                Hall Of Fame
                                • Dec 2005
                                • 12256

                                #330
                                Re: 9/10 - 9/23 Game Discussion Thread

                                Originally posted by BigOscar
                                I'd rather simplify to the stats that actually happened, instead of the stats invented by statisticians as to what "should" have happened if baseball followed their formula. It's a common expression in England that the only stat that matters is the score, because that's exactly the truth. Hence why I will also crown the world series winners by who wins 4 games in the world series, rather than running all the numbers and deciding who "should" have won instead.
                                Except, again, ERA isn't measuring what "actually happened" to the pitcher. It's measuring total run prevention, something that pitchers and fielders (and the park) achieve together. FIP does a better job measuring what "actually happened" since it's stripping out defense and looking at the components pitchers have the most control over (strikeouts, walks, home runs). It's not a perfect metric, but it's closer to measuring a pitcher's true ability than ERA.

                                Anyway, since Blake Snell triggered this discussion, it's probably worth mentioning he trails Chris Sale in baseball-reference's ERA-based WAR and is barely ahead of Verlander in Fangraph's RA/9 WAR. The gap in innings pitch looms large here, so it's hardly a travesty if he doesn't win AL Cy Young even judging by ERA.
                                I write things on the Internet.

                                Comment

                                Working...