Are Analytics killing Baseball

[MBMavs20]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

Guys don't just go the other way because it's not their natural swing path. They hit the ball in the air the other way but with the launch angle swing, it's not designed to hit the ball in the ground the other way.

And again, I'm sure opposing teams would be extremely happy for judge, Stanton, etc to hit .400 without power

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Players can change their natural swing path if they wanted to. Just like when you get a pitch on the outside of the plate, you go the other way with it. If you try and pull it, you end up grounding out.

Has anyone else noticed all the fastballs up in the strike zones this post season? There was no way anyone was going to hit a Nathan Eovaldi fastball out for a home run that was up in the zone. The one pitch he hung to Muncy was a cutter at 90MPH.

[TheMatrix31]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

They do make things more robotic and cookie-cutter.

[SPTO]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

Yeah, I don't think the game is being "killed" but as Doc mentioned the aesthetics of the game is probably at its worst in quite some time. The game has been reduced to the Three True Outcomes (Ks, Walks, HRs) that along with the use of shifts and the crazy over-management of pitchers is pretty damn frustrating. The problem is, the solution might be WORSE. So I dunno. I do think there needs to be something done and in some respects its up to organizations to teach the fundamentals more.

If more organizations emphasized hitting to all fields and doing the small things than maybe things might even out a bit. I was kind of hoping the brand of baseball the Giants and Royals play(ed) would lead to a lot of copycats but it doesn't seem to have caught on. The thing every other organization has taken from those two is the concept of bullpenning so they all applied the WRONG idea from them.

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

As for the original rant (really just the Yankee parts, except KB) :

Judge hitting 2 has more to do with the team than himself. It's about maximizing runs for the team. Moving him to 3rd would give him a few more opportunities to hit with a runner in scoring position, but it also lowers his chances to hit in general and gives him more chances with 2 outs and the bases empty. Hitting him 2nd gives him a chance to both drive in a runner if the leadoff guy gets on base or be the catalyst for the middle of the order hitters to be able to come up with a runner on base.

Kris Bryant had 5 less RBI hitting 2nd than 3rd in his rookie year (45-50), and scored 15 more runs hitting 2nd than 3rd (64-49). He created more runs for the offense hitting 2nd.

I don't think the Stanton thing means all that much, he hit 2nd with the Marlins the second half when he went crazy and was better from that spot last year. He's really streaky so his best stats will just be wherever he was when he got hot.

Pulling pitchers early is tough. Sure you have the Ryu example, then there's always Grady Little and even more recently, Terry Collins and Matt Harvey. People were calling for Boone to take CC out in the first inning of his game. It's easier to manage a bullpen when your starters are doing well, but that's not always the case. Even so, you never know when a guy is going to blow up. You'd probably rather have a fresh arm in there than just rely on waiting until the guy you have falters.

It's been said a million times but the shift wins for a lot of these guys if they go up there and slap a single the other way, which is a little odd only because we revere OBP so much. I understand if Joey Gallo goes up to the plate and has no shot of hitting one out, that's a win. But if he gets a bunt single and a walk or two, isn't that worth something? I guess it depends on construction of the lineup and how confident you are in the other guys pulling him up, which brings you back to why you have guys like Judge hitting 2. I do laugh everytime I see a guy hit a line drive up the middle right to the second baseman in the shift and people go "why's he always trying to pull the ball?" Always reminds me of Soup in the Show saying "if everything goes right, the ball goes up the middle". Well what happens when everything goes right, and you're out on a 4-3 groundout?

[MBMavs20]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

As for the original rant (really just the Yankee parts, except KB) :

Judge hitting 2 has more to do with the team than himself. It's about maximizing runs for the team. Moving him to 3rd would give him a few more opportunities to hit with a runner in scoring position, but it also lowers his chances to hit in general and gives him more chances with 2 outs and the bases empty. Hitting him 2nd gives him a chance to both drive in a runner if the leadoff guy gets on base or be the catalyst for the middle of the order hitters to be able to come up with a runner on base.

Kris Bryant had 5 less RBI hitting 2nd than 3rd in his rookie year (45-50), and scored 15 more runs hitting 2nd than 3rd (64-49). He created more runs for the offense hitting 2nd.

I don't think the Stanton thing means all that much, he hit 2nd with the Marlins the second half when he went crazy and was better from that spot last year. He's really streaky so his best stats will just be wherever he was when he got hot.

Pulling pitchers early is tough. Sure you have the Ryu example, then there's always Grady Little and even more recently, Terry Collins and Matt Harvey. People were calling for Boone to take CC out in the first inning of his game. It's easier to manage a bullpen when your starters are doing well, but that's not always the case. Even so, you never know when a guy is going to blow up. You'd probably rather have a fresh arm in there than just rely on waiting until the guy you have falters.

It's been said a million times but the shift wins for a lot of these guys if they go up there and slap a single the other way, which is a little odd only because we revere OBP so much. I understand if Joey Gallo goes up to the plate and has no shot of hitting one out, that's a win. But if he gets a bunt single and a walk or two, isn't that worth something? I guess it depends on construction of the lineup and how confident you are in the other guys pulling him up, which brings you back to why you have guys like Judge hitting 2. I do laugh everytime I see a guy hit a line drive up the middle right to the second baseman in the shift and people go "why's he always trying to pull the ball?" Always reminds me of Soup in the Show saying "if everything goes right, the ball goes up the middle". Well what happens when everything goes right, and you're out on a 4-3 groundout?

I will have to disagree with you on the Judge thing. A power hitter's job is to drive in runs, not set up the middle of the order for someone else.

Maybe I am old school, but to me a 2 hitter should be able to make contact and not strike out, move runners, and be able to hit and run. Teams need players like that, especially in the playoffs or in close games where you need to manufacture a run. If the Dodgers could have done that, Game 3 would not have been 18 innings.

Joey Gallo represents everything wrong with baseball today. Teams will never win with guys like that on their team. He's the next Chris Davis and we know how well that's working out with Baltimore. When they cut him, they will have to eat that horrible contract.

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

I think you're focused on the role of a 2 hitter as if he's going to come up 2nd every time he hits. The 2 hitter is going to come up with the bases loaded, bases empty, man on first no out, man on 3rd 2 outs, every situation isn't going to call for the same skillset. Analytics tries to strip that away and look at the lineup as a circle. If we can get decent enough hitters at the bottom of our lineup, then Judge's OBP + SLG prowess allows him to both set the table and clean it up as opposed to an old school slap hitter. There's probably an argument (I think BLZER has mentioned it before) that NL lineups with the pitcher at the bottom don't gain as much from their best hitter hitting second.

[BunnyHardaway]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

There has been a big movement towards Analytics the past 10 years in baseball and I don't know if I like it that much. I think Managers are trying to out-think themselves and their opponents and it's hurting the game.

Consider the following examples:

I HATE the fact that Aaron Judge hits 2nd in the lineup. He is not a 2 hitter. He is a power hitter and he should be hitting 3rd or 4th. This will give him more chances to drive in runs. A 2 hitter is Derek Jeter, or Willie Randolph. It's meant for a contact hitter. Giancarlo Stanton is NOT a 2 hitter, neither is Kris Bryant.

Kris Bryant hit 2nd during his rookie year of 2016 when he had 102 RBI's and he had more RBI's hitting 3rd than 2nd. He dropped down to 73 RBI's in 2017.

Giancarlo Stanton hit .233 with 11 HR's hitting second. When he hit cleanup, he hit .321 with 21 HR's...

Would you hit Babe Ruth 2nd? Or Mickey Mantle? Or Barry Bonds? You would have been called the worst manager ever if you did.

Sure, the game is changing, but why re-invent the wheel? Having power hitters hit 3rd, 4th, or 5th in the lineup has worked for the past 100 years so why change it?

Dave Roberts, Manager of the Dodgers. Or should I say over-manager of the Dodgers. His moves in the World Series have left me totally scratching my head.

First, Cody Bellinger played in 162 games this year. Max Muncy came out of nowhere and hit 35 HR's. So you reward them by benching them in games 1 and 2 because a lefty is pitching? What the hell is that? I always thought you went with the players that got you to the World Series, not bench them.

Second, can we please let starters pitch out of jams and stop abusing the bullpens? Just ask Hyun-Jin Ryu. In game 2, you yanked him early and brought in Ryan Madsen. Ryan Madsen? Really? A 37 years old reliever who sucked this year. Who pitched 9 games for the Dodgers this year and had a 6.48 ERA. If you tried to pull Roger Clemens, or Nolan Ryan, or Jack Morris out of a game early they would have told you to go **** Yourself....

As for the infield shift? Hit the ball the other way. Problem solved. Wade Boggs would have hit .400 in the era of the shift.

Rant over.

On average, the 4th lineup slot gets 558 PA’s per season. The 2nd lineup spot gets 586. Why would you not want your best hitters getting 28 additional plate appearances over the course of the season?

There’s absolutely a conversation to be had about the homogenization of the game, but staunch opposition to analytics is largely a case of anti-intellectualism.

[MBMavs20]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

On average, the 4th lineup slot gets 558 PA’s per season. The 2nd lineup spot gets 586. Why would you not want your best hitters getting 28 additional plate appearances over the course of the season?

There’s absolutely a conversation to be had about the homogenization of the game, but staunch opposition to analytics is largely a case of anti-intellectualism.

https://www.smartfantasybaseball.com/2014/10/the-effect-of-batting-order-on-r-and-rbi-production/

Here is an article I found about lineup spots. Interesting read.

I want my best hitter to be either 3rd or 4th in the lineup because they will get more chances to drive in runs.

More AB's doesn't mean more productivity. If so, wouldn't every team's best hitter hit leadoff?

[BunnyHardaway]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

https://www.smartfantasybaseball.com...bi-production/

Here is an article I found about lineup spots. Interesting read.

I want my best hitter to be either 3rd or 4th in the lineup because they will get more chances to drive in runs.

More AB's doesn't mean more productivity. If so, wouldn't every team's best hitter hit leadoff?

The leadoff spot only matters in the first inning, for one, and assuming the batters ahead of the cleanup hitter will be on is totally predictive and thus an inefficient way to construct a lineup. You want the guys most proficient at getting on base and hitting for extra bases getting the most at bats.

Teams with deep lineups occasionally will put guys like that in the leadoff spot; off the top of my head I can think of Harper, Rizzo, and Springer as examples.

[Caulfield]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

No, analytics isn't killing baseball.

Furthermore, I don't think baseball can be killed.

It can't. And lord knows we've tried.

[MBMavs20]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

The leadoff spot only matters in the first inning, for one, and assuming the batters ahead of the cleanup hitter will be on is totally predictive and thus an inefficient way to construct a lineup. You want the guys most proficient at getting on base and hitting for extra bases getting the most at bats.

Teams with deep lineups occasionally will put guys like that in the leadoff spot; off the top of my head I can think of Harper, Rizzo, and Springer as examples.

The leadoff spot argument might have some validity in the American League, but in the National League is a different story.

Because when a team gets runners on base with 2 outs and the 8th hitter is up, they will walk him to get to the pitcher because it's an easy out. Then your leadoff hitter will hit first next inning.

George Springer is a lead-off hitter. Harper hit .217 in the leadoff spot for 12 games and 2nd for 26 games and hit .230. Harper had a down year all around so he's not the best example.

Rizzo hit leadoff for 31 games but the Cubs had 10 different batters hit leadoff so that tells me they didn't have a legit leadoff hitter and tried a bunch of different lineups.

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

What about Springer's 265/346/434 slash line with 6 steals and 22 homers makes him an ideal leadoff hitter?

[BunnyHardaway]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

What about Springer's 265/346/434 slash line with 6 steals and 22 homers makes him an ideal leadoff hitter?

Because a .346 on base percentage is very good and his 10% walk rate is above average.

But people are going to continually make excuses for not wanting to learn new things so there’s really no sense in trying to convince someone why they’re not killing baseball. Big mistake on my part.

[DieHardYankee26]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

Because a .346 on base percentage is very good and his 10% walk rate is above average.

But people are going to continually make excuses for not wanting to learn new things so there’s really no sense in trying to convince someone why they’re not killing baseball. Big mistake on my part.

Wut?

Anyway to the other dude who I was asking in the first place, what about George Springer's low average, low steals, makes him a better leadoff hitter than the ones you say shouldn't be hitting in that spot, like Rizzo? I'm not understanding why he is a leadoff hitter but the other ones can't do it. What's the old school rationale for Springer at leadoff?

[Caulfield]

Re: Is Analytics killing Baseball

One mans death is another's evolution. It's kind of the same with me and NASCAR. They left me behind for (perceived) greener pastures. I don't think MLB is in any danger of going bankrupt anytime soon.