2014 Blue Jays

[bad_philanthropy]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

Big game tonight. I want to see the Jays get back on the wagon like they did after the Texas loss.

[bad_philanthropy]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

What do you guys think on Stroman at this point? Far too early to make any concrete judgement, I know, but does anyone feel like maybe the best thing for his development might indeed be to play on a team like these Jays? With the chemistry, and someone like Granfather Buehrle in the dugout? Stroman is 23 after all—maybe the best thing to do is stick him in that rotation, let him take whatever lumps every fifth day, and sit next to Buehrle whenever he can.

[AC]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

Once again, for like the trillionth time, he needs to be in the rotation. Today proved that.

[Majingir]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/MLB/American/ALEastern/BlueJays.html

As of now,they're projecting that 87 wins gives us a 95% chance of making playoffs. 100% is 91 and above.

.500 ball from here on out is still mid 80s win total. Really hope Jays can make playoffs. Unlike Raptors,Jays team filled with vets who could probably handle the pressure in playoffs. Doubt they'd win,but have much better shot than Raptors did.

Really want to see them in playoffs so badly. Meaningful baseball in August-September,let alone October, is something I've been wanting to see for so long!

[AC]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

We're probably gonna win around 86. We've been getting a little lucky so far.

[SPTO]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

Regarding Stroman, might as well go with the route of letting him pitch in the rotation on a pitch and innings count then shut him down for a couple starts in Sept. and have him ready to be all Wacha-Wacha in the postseason if this club is good enough to be there.

I think this is an 85-88 win team hopefully it'll be enough to get to the playoffs.

[Majingir]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

Based on current paces,85 is all it'd take, but there's obviously still more than half a season left to be played,and that number will surely go up.

Since 03,the most wins to not make the playoffs(assuming every year had the 2 wild card seeds) was 92. Since 01,every AL East winner has needed 95 or more wins to win division.

Realistically though, I think anything over 90 could make playoffs given how the AL has been this year. Unless the O's,White Sox and/or Rangers can suddenly play real good ball(at least .580 baseball from here on out in order for at least 1 of them to get in 90 win mark), don't think it should be that hard for Jays to make playoffs.

Just crazy to think that a 51-53 record,if all other paces held up,COULD make the playoffs, but realistically, 56-48 record(.538) should do it.

[AC]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

34-24

We'd need a .538% pace over the rest of the year, or to play like an 87 win team. We're expected to play like a .529% team for the rest of the year, based on wRC. So we'd need to improve by .009 points. Or, basically, hope we don't get hit by RTTM as hard as we could be.

But, no one else in the ALE is really close to us. Jays are WAY ahead of the Yankees. Here's a quick thing I made.



That's basically a power ranking based off of Fangraphs' wRC theory. Pytho is a team's pythagorean expectancy record, xPytho is using wRC to predict their pytho record. pDiff is basically how lucky teams have been getting based off of their expected run differential versus their actual run differential, displayed by projected win difference. Teams in red have gotten unlucky. Teams in black have gotten lucky. However, good teams like the Giants are still good even if they're lucky, it's just regression to the mean.

The Jays are way ahead of the pack. The numbers don't include our outburst today and yesterday. On the flip side of the same card, they don't include the ALE's wins today. But it doesn't matter. The only team close are the Yankees and they're 7 wins back. I'm confident we have a good chance at making the playoffs. For whatever it's worth, the mean projection here has us playing .543 ball, an 88 win pace, placing us at 90.5 wins. I'm thinking we'll finish around 88-90 wins, but get a bit lucky in the process.

So get the show on the road and trade Sanchez for Shields and win the whole damn thing. If we got Shields, oh man would we ever be in a nice position.

[Majingir]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

34-24

We'd need a .538% pace over the rest of the year, or to play like an 87 win team. We're expected to play like a .529% team for the rest of the year, based on wRC. So we'd need to improve by .009 points. Or, basically, hope we don't get hit by RTTM as hard as we could be.

But, no one else in the ALE is really close to us. Jays are WAY ahead of the Yankees. Here's a quick thing I made.



That's basically a power ranking based off of Fangraphs' wRC theory. Pytho is a team's pythagorean expectancy record, xPytho is using wRC to predict their pytho record. pDiff is basically how lucky teams have been getting based off of their expected run differential versus their actual run differential, displayed by projected win difference. Teams in red have gotten unlucky. Teams in black have gotten lucky. However, good teams like the Giants are still good even if they're lucky, it's just regression to the mean.

The Jays are way ahead of the pack. The numbers don't include our outburst today and yesterday. On the flip side of the same card, they don't include the ALE's wins today. But it doesn't matter. The only team close are the Yankees and they're 7 wins back. I'm confident we have a good chance at making the playoffs.

So get the show on the road and trade Sanchez for Shields and win the whole damn thing.

That's all that matters though, is that Jays are ahead of every AL East team. I'd rather be a 85 win team and win AL East over a 90 win team and be in the WC spot(or worse,not even make playoffs).

Doesn't sound like AA is even thinking about making a big trade until July. SP is really all they need and they'll be good.

Buehrle obviously been great. Hutchison been good so far as well. Dickey still struggling abit but better than last year. Trade for a SP and then we won't be forced to put a struggling guy in the 5th SP spot. Just whoever is best pitcher would be in that 5th spot. Stroman,Happ or even Hendricks could go in that 5th spot.

[AC]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

1. Dickey
2. Shields
3. Buehrle
4. Hutchison/Morrow
5. Stroman

That's a playoff rotation. I don't want Happ in the rotation. And I don't want Hendriks anywhere near it.

[Majingir]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

I think Morrows career as a starter is done. I think it was for diff reasons,but look at Darren Oliver. First few years of his career he was a reliever, then became a starter for a number of seasons,and around his early 30s he switched back to a reliever to extend his career another 10 years.

Morrow should do the same, just go back to being a reliever. He can't take pitching so many pitches a game. Either way, Jays should decline his team option at the end of the season. 10M for a guy who might play 10 games...no way.

Dickey,Buehrle,Hutchison,Traded pitcher and Stroman would be great for rotation.

[AC]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

You can't decline his $10m option when guys like Scott Feldman and Jason Vargas are getting paid that.

Morrow gets one more shot at the rotation. There's no way he provides surplus value as a reliever on a 10m contract and if you let him go someone else will pick him up and be thrilled.

After next year, if it's not working, sign him cheap and put him in the pen. He could probably be an elite reliever.

[Majingir]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

Feldman got that deal after posting a 3.86ERA and 1.183WHIP the previous season. And Vargas ERA was hovering around 4 when he was signed(but his was 8.5M though)

If our worst starters post an ERA around 4, that's GREAT. A team starter ERA better than 4 would put us in the top half of the AL in terms of starter ERAs. As long as Jays have at least an average pitching staff, they'll win more than they lose since they have one of the best offenses in the league.

Something like being 3rd in AL in offense and 8th in pitching should translate into a top 5 team in the AL.

[AC]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

Jason Vargas has posted 1.5 fWAR/180. Scott Feldman has posted 1.99fWAR/180.

Brandon Morrow has posted 3.2 fWAR/180 as a starter.

You don't decline the option, and you don't move him into the bullpen. You don't take a chance on this kind of arm.

[Majingir]

Re: 2014 Blue Jays

Crazy to see state of AL East in just a years timespan.
This time last year:
Red Sox:34 wins
Yankees:31 wins
O's:31 wins
Rays:30 wins
Jays:23 wins

And that was with about 55-56 games played(compared to 57-58 right now).

As for last year...look at playoff teams and ranks in the AL:
Red Sox:6th in ERA,1st in runs
Rays:5th in ERA,9th in runs
Tigers:3rd in ERA,2nd in runs
Indians:7th in ERA,5th in runs
A's:2nd in ERA,3rd in runs

So like I was saying before,you can have middle of the AL ERA as long as you have offense to back it up,which Jays do, so just need to stay around that 5-8 mark in the AL in ERA and they should be good(right now,they're actually 10th,which is crazy to see considering where they are in the standings)