Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

[takki]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

I disagree. You are experiencing confirmation bias.

As you probably already know, an elite 3pt shooter will hit 35-40% of their open threes. 2/3rds of the time, these elite shooters miss.

Imagine a three sided die with the numbers 1-3. The odds of you rolling a 1 (a made 3pt shot) twice in a row are low. The odds of your rolling any other combination (either two misses or a make and a miss) are high.

In the same way, unless your player is warming up or hot, they aren't going to drop multiple threes in a row. The real NBA is like this as well.

[plyrically]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

Just like in real life, unless you're klay.

[2_headedmonster]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

maybe its an online thing, but it the midst of some recent pick and roll defense testing, i did it with both Klay and Barnes.

[TMagic]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

I was actually able to tonight.

I hit a three with Harden

Then hit another on the very next possession with Terrence Jones of all people

I was shocked. Lol

[MadManCometh]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

I disagree. You are experiencing confirmation bias.

As you probably already know, an elite 3pt shooter will hit 35-40% of their open threes. 2/3rds of the time, these elite shooters miss.

Imagine a three sided die with the numbers 1-3. The odds of you rolling the same number twice are low.

In the same way, unless your player is warming up or hot, they aren't going to drop multiple threes in a row. The real NBA is like this as well.

Just simply not true. You leave an nba elite shooter open and u will pay the price more times than not.

[takki]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

Just simply not true. You leave an nba elite shooter open and u will pay the price more times than not.

Not to be mean, but what you are stating is an opinion. This is a game that aims to be simulation. Thus gameplay changes should not be based off of what players want or feel should happen, but what actually happens.

Curry is one of the greatest 3pt shooters in NBA history. Guess what his 3pt percentage on wide open looks were for last season going into the all-star break? 42%. And this is literally one of the greatest of all time from long range. It's much lower for most other players.

You are statistically not going to make back to back three point shots, even with the best 3pt shooters. The community needs to accept this and stop imagining issues with the game that are not there.

[killu4what]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

I think what the analytics consider wide open is different then most people consider wide open. The numbers your using I feel may be flawed.

Edit-Curry shot 44% overall contested or not. So you can do the math on that.

Double edit- I see you said going into the all-star break. What did he shoot on wide open ones after the all-star break

Also curry is not the problem. I feel elite shooters are fine.

Sent from my Note 4

[takki]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

I think what the analytics consider wide open is different then most people consider wide open. The numbers your using I feel may be flawed.

Double edit- I see you said going into the all-star break. What did he shoot on wide open ones after the all-star break

The site I got the data from considered wide open as there being no defender within 6 or more feet from the shooter.

I don't have his complete season open look stats. Most sites don't record those stats so it's annoying to find. You'll have to find that one yourself.

[tetoleetd]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

this is what scared 2k away from being too sim in the past. people blow their lid when they discover they cant make every shot with a good shooter.

[Sundown]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

Just simply not true. You leave an nba elite shooter open and u will pay the price more times than not.

Actually you leave the best shooter that's ever lived open and it's about 50/50.

[DC]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

2K, please don't dumb the game down even more because of people's "feelings."

Show statistics people. For those of you that are complaining, start CHARTING and/or recording your % on 3's shot AFTER a previously made three.

Like we don't know the context. All we know is that you are "wide open" and we already know that most of yall don't understand what wide open is.

We don't know the momentum of the game.
We don't know if the shot was taken by a spot up shooter OFF the dribble.
We don't know the fatigue of the shooter.
We don't know ANY of that.

You simply play the victim and say, "It is impossible to make back to back threes."

We need more info and we need proof.

[KyotoCarl]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

I see what you mean.

It's tough to pass up wide-open shots... Especially with great shooters like Ray Allen.

Agreed - I just notice that I have better success when I put up different shots coming from different players, that's all I was saying.

If I hit a 3-pointer... I might try to drive & dish on the next trip (or post up a big man).. to mix things up a bit.

Missing consecutive 3's has never really been an issue for me (personally).... because I don't take that many 3's per game anyway.

In MyCareer mode, I probably attempt roughly 5 per game. (i.e. Only 2 attempts per Quarter, or less)
Because I take mostly 'midrange' shots.

Yeah forget about cheese. I play offline and I shouldn't be penalized because people want online cheese stopped.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk

[manu1433]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

The site I got the data from considered wide open as there being no defender within 6 or more feet from the shooter.

I don't have his complete season open look stats. Most sites don't record those stats so it's annoying to find. You'll have to find that one yourself.

NBASavant

http://nbasavant.com/shot_search.php

you'll enjoy it

[Luke Skywalker]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

What would be a good slider to represent Curry and good shooters?

[manu1433]

Re: Nearly impossible to hit two straight 3's in a row

Imagine a three sided die with the numbers 1-3. The odds of you rolling a 1 (a made 3pt shot) twice in a row are low. The odds of your rolling any other combination (either two misses or a make and a miss) are high.

Not sure if a game will ever be able to properly simulate streakyness of real players, but saying a player misses X % of open shots and then comparing it to a dice row is not fair.

Players heat up in real life. I heat up in real life and am obviously nowhere near a NBA caliber basketball player. What I'm saying is that players go through hot and cold streaks. With a die, you aren't going to experience this. It is going to be random every time you roll.

Do players hit 3's on consecutive possessions in real life a lot? Probably more than you'd think honestly.

Unlike rolling a die, shooting a basketball is based on an actual skill as opposed to blind luck.

A player may shoot 3 for 8 over the course of a game but miss 2, makes 2, miss 1, make 1, miss 1, miss 1.

Player fatigue, game rhythm, and so forth will play into something like this.

You use Curry as an example, but I wonder how many of Curry's "wide open" 3 point opportunities are actually when he pulls up on a fast break? I'd guess quite a bit.

Kyle Korver hits 50% of his open 3's. That's a higher clip than Aldridge hits wide open from 8-16ft (41%).

You and I both know that if we have two open mid range jumpers in this game with Aldridge that they are more likely to go in than 2 straight 3's with Korver.

I still feel like the game needs to be better balanced. I feel like I can I am much more likely to hit open consecutive 16 footers with big men as opposed to open 3's w/ elite 3 point shooters. The difference should feel slightly in favor of hitting open mid range jumpers, it shouldn't feel like giant chasm.

Here are some guys who hit really high clips of open 3's as opposed to somebody like Curry:

Danny Green - 51%
JJ Redick - 47%
Morrow - 53%
Vasquez - 47% (surprising)
Gordon - 51%
Delly - 47% (surprising)
Lee - 47%
Babbitt - 52%