NBA 2K19 Screenshot - Deandre Ayton (Overall Rating - 79)

[3304Life]

Re: NBA 2K19 Screenshot - Deandre Ayton (Overall Rating - 79)

Just since the turn of the century we’ve had Kenyon Martin, Kwame, Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, Bennett, Wiggins and Fultz. I wouldn’t say there’s anything historically low when none of those guys were ever top tier, let alone as rookies.


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[Real2KInsider]

Re: NBA 2K19 Screenshot - Deandre Ayton (Overall Rating - 79)

Last ten #1 OVR picks and their rookie production
2017: Markelle Fultz: 7-3-4 (14 games, 253 minutes)
2016: Ben Simmons: 16-8-8
2015: Karl Towns: 18-11-2
2014: Andrew Wiggins: 17-5-2
2013: Anthony Bennett: 4-3-1
2012: Anthony Davis: 14-8-1
2011: Kyrie Irving: 19-4-5
2010: John Wall: 16-5-8
2009: Blake Griffin: 23-12-4
2008: Derrick Rose: 17-4-6

80% of these players deserved an 80 rating in their rookie season, often well in excess of that.
The players that did not had MAJOR questions about their viability as #1 OVR picks.

Anthony Bennett was a surprise #1 pick (mocks had him 8th) in an historically weak class, and he crumbled under the pressure. The pick was supposed to have been Nerlens Noel, but CLE were under pressure to start winning and Noel was going to redshirt his rookie season. Awkwardly, Cleveland couldn't take Victor Oladipo after drafting Irving & Dion Waiters the prior two drafts. The entire league slept on Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th, the clear #1 in a re-draft).

Fultz nearly red-shirted his rookie season, then returned to have his path blocked by the prior season's #1 OVR pick (who was playing PG rather than PF/SF, not exactly a typical development).
Fultz production translated to 14-6-7 per 36 minutes.
Compare this to the 10-6-7 that #2 pick Lonzo Ball averaged in 34 MPG.
Fultz is likely fine and the bust talk is way too early - it was magnified by the success of Tatum, whom Philly traded to get Fultz.
Tatum would not have had that opportunity with Simmons/Saric/Covington; it also took a Day-1 Gordon Hayward injury for him to get his chance.

There are no asterisks surrounding Ayton's selection. He was the top pick in a better than average class (most of these other rookie ratings are also probably low), for a team that has a ton of minutes at his position to throw at him. Players like Ayton, Bagley, and Doncic would have been consensus #1 picks in 2017.

Per Mike Schmitz:

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24245975/nba-rookie-year-predictions-espn-summer-forecast

Ayton can register 20 and 10 in the box score by the virtue of his Zeus-like frame and tremendous agility. On a Suns team that lacks interior presence, Ayton is poised to play as many minutes as any other rookie in his class. He will provide instant value on the glass, and with Devin Booker as his likely pick-and-roll partner, Ayton can pop to midrange or dive into deep seals, finishing with strength and touch around the rim.

[Real2KInsider]

Re: NBA 2K19 Screenshot - Deandre Ayton (Overall Rating - 79)

Just since the turn of the century we’ve had Kenyon Martin, Kwame, Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, Bennett, Wiggins and Fultz. I wouldn’t say there’s anything historically low when none of those guys were ever top tier, let alone as rookies.

Andrew Wiggins: His issue is that he hasn't improved since entering the league. The #1 OVR pick isn't supposed to be a league-average starter (which is what an 80 OVR is).

Greg Oden (2009): Get outta here with that, he was a top prospect compared to David Robinson in college, torn apart by injuries.

Andrea Bargnani (2006): Most people thought the Raptors were dumb for taking Bargnani over LaMarcus Aldridge, and the pick was lambasted from the jump (European scouting isn't what it is now). The draft class also sucked (Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams round out the top five).

Andrew Bogut (2005): Was drafted based on positional need (high schooler Andrew Bynum was the only other center drafted in the top 25). He was NOT viewed on draft night as a better prospect than Deron Williams or Chris Paul (who performed well in excees of 80s as rookies).

Kwame Brown (2001): You'd do well to note that players can't get drafted out of high school anymore for a reason. Of course it was also well-known that Kwame wasn't the prospect that LeBron James and Dwight Howard were (and Kwame didn't even compare favorably to Kevin Garnett). This draft was notable in that it was the first time an International (Pau Gasol) was rookie of the year, speaking volumes to how destitute American basketball was at this time.

Kenyon Martin (2000): .......You realize that 2000 was the worst draft class in NBA history, and that it isn't remotely close, right? K-Mart was one of the only All-Stars in the class and certainly not a "bust".

In every single draft class there are players who are better than league-average as rookies (with the exception of maybe 2000).

Not every draft class is created equal.
In 2015 for example it was known the class was top-heavy, not extending past the top five.
In 2009 the class was loaded with top-level PGs. Darren Collison (21st) was the SEVENTH PG drafted in the first round.
Just two years earlier in 2007 the crop was thin: Mike Conley (4th), Acie Law (11th), Aaron Brooks (26th). Collison would have been a lottery pick in this class.

Every single player is a case-by-case basis and treating every situation as the same (as 2K does) is recipe for getting it wrong more often than getting it right.

"But what about Michael Olowokandi" is not a compelling argument when analyzing tape and production of a #1 OVR pick, or any pick really.