NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

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  • Real2KInsider
    MVP
    • Dec 2003
    • 4658

    #76
    Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

    Originally posted by vannwolfhawk
    Part of that was Powell was out for a few games but the other part is how he has played in those extra minutes and how’s he’s developed.
    Simons actually didn't gain any minutes there.

    Little moved into Powell's role
    Simons moved into Little's role
    Dennis Smith moved into Simons' role.

    Simons mins also might be inflated a touch by 4 consecutive games being blowouts (his lowest total came in the opener, a 3-point loss).

    He played 19 tonight (though obviously he was quite effective, with 19 pts and 5 threes during that time). It's clear he's taken a leap this season AND has a longer leash than was previously given.

    (Just wanted to clarify that his boost is mainly from his productivity)
    Last edited by Real2KInsider; 11-01-2021, 03:42 AM.
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    • Real2KInsider
      MVP
      • Dec 2003
      • 4658

      #77
      Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

      Originally posted by vannwolfhawk
      1 - Walton told Barnes he needed and wanted him to be more aggressive. So his numbers are going up as he has been looking to attack more and is not being passive in taking a high number of shots. It’s not all spot ups or contests this year.
      Barnes was posting up 3x per game with DAL. He knocked that down to 2 per game w/ SAC and was at 1 per game last season.

      Just looking at Synergy, he was much more effective in the Pick & Pop last season than he had been in years past (his success w/ Bagley out is what lead to the full shift this year).

      Currently 21% of his offense (4 possession per game) is coming in Transition. With Dallas in 2017 & 2018 that was at 7% (1 possession per game). I think all of this mostly points to his game being more suited to being a modern 4, and using him in Carlisle's dinosaur paced system next to Dirk did him no favors.

      With SAC, they had major lineup balance issues w/ Hield/Bagley also sharing the court. Moving them to the bench for the lower usage Haliburton/Harkless has really helped Barnes in the early going (along w/ Haliburton doubling as a 2nd PG out there).

      2 - I don’t think Bridges has been reliant on Ball at all although they do have good chemistry together. He’s creating and taking pull up 3’s more so than pass and kick open spot up’s.
      Bridges' Handle is certainly improved, which makes him a better half-court scorer & playmaker.

      What I mean about LaMelo is the Hornets lead the NBA with 25 Transition possessions per game, and he's the core reason behind that. Bridges thrives in Transition but I'd have to think his production would be closer to Jerami Grant's in Detroit (12 Transition possessions per game, dead last) if those roles were reversed. He's more product of the system than the driving force behind it.
      Last edited by Real2KInsider; 11-01-2021, 04:58 AM.
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      • vannwolfhawk
        MVP
        • Jun 2009
        • 3412

        #78
        Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

        Ya, this goes back to my earlier point in you can’t just go off of synergy or analytics. Got to watch games to see the whole story. Combo of both.
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        • Real2KInsider
          MVP
          • Dec 2003
          • 4658

          #79
          Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

          Originally posted by vannwolfhawk
          Ya, this goes back to my earlier point in you can’t just go off of synergy or analytics. Got to watch games to see the whole story. Combo of both.
          The video is informing us of what to look for - the data is quantifying it in a meaningful way.


          <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/xQvYBWwOAqQ" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
          Last edited by Real2KInsider; 11-01-2021, 06:14 PM.
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          • jeebs9
            Fear is the Unknown
            • Oct 2008
            • 47568

            #80
            Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

            Originally posted by vannwolfhawk
            Ya, this goes back to my earlier point in you can’t just go off of synergy or analytics. Got to watch games to see the whole story. Combo of both.
            I agree with him to a point. I definitely said the sanding with the stats he mentioned last week in the NBA thread.
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            • vannwolfhawk
              MVP
              • Jun 2009
              • 3412

              #81
              Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

              Originally posted by Real2KInsider
              The video is informing us of what to look for - the data is quantifying it in a meaningful way.
              Let me put it this way. I have 4 games on my tv all at once every night (as long as 4 are playing) and your list was right on and I haven’t looked at 1 stat or analysis on any player. Couldn’t have even told you the stats until you posted them. But from watching games I’d have had basically the same list. It’s why I said great list. Lol

              Like the Pacers are probably 1 of the best 1-5 teams ever. Lol not really but they are way better than their record by far!

              But for the examples earlier I’ve watched the rotations, lineups being used, how players are being used so I was just saying your players are dead on but the analysis was off on the simons take going off film. That’s all…

              Like simons didn’t play more because of blowouts. Lol He just played 11 minutes in the 76ers game on right now (7 minute mark of 1st half to 6 minute mark in 2nd quarter). Dennis smith will get weeded out. He’s bad. Chauncey is pulling McCollum out at 7 minute mark to bring him in at PG with simons at the 2 and he plays all the 2nd quarter so he doesn’t have to play smith. Then again simons, Lillard, and McCollum all in and McCollum playing the 3. Little plays some 3 and 4 depending. Mostly because of the impact and confidence Chauncey has in both little and simons and there early play.

              Point being we have watched it play out. You can see the total minutes played and the production but what is the other intangibles being played out. Sure you can see Blanton is playing in Toronto. So I need to rate him higher. But what do you rate him higher in. Sadique Bey is another example. Like yes I saw the numbers you posted but his post game and more importantly defensive impact is what’s impressed me and probably is underrated. Things like that…

              It’s like a team is running PNR’s so I’m going to assign them PNR plays. But is it a Spain pnr, a wing pnr, a side PNR, empty pnr, Ram screen pnr, running PNR, center court pnr, double drag PNR, or a double horns screen pnr. Lol! Analytics say they run PNR. But how do I scout that to see what’s really happening and why? No different in player analysis.

              Again, I think both is important so let’s not get it twisted. Lol I feel like you are saying it’s not important hence the response. Plus just going off your posts and earlier analysis of a few guys is all which I can’t totally agree with, but again the list is solid. The numbers clearly state that as well… Not denying that either…
              Last edited by vannwolfhawk; 11-01-2021, 07:09 PM.
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              • dwayne12345
                MVP
                • Dec 2010
                • 1407

                #82
                Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                Originally posted by Real2KInsider
                A collection of players I've frequently cited over the past two weeks:

                UNDERRATED (Star Division)
                84/PF - Christian Wood (HOU): 20 PPG, 11 RPG (47 FG%, 46 3PT%), 33 MPG

                UNDERRATED (Starter Division)
                78/SF - Saddiq Bey (DET): 17 PPG, 9 RPG (42 FG%, 32 3PT%), 34 MPG


                -----------------------------------------------

                As a general rule, since 2K underrates half the league, there won't be as many overrated players.
                The players who've struggled most (or have the most diminished roles) out of the gate:

                OVERRATED (Starter Division)
                84/PF - Kristaps Porzingis (DAL): 13 PPG, 6 RPG (30 FG%, 24 3PT%), 26 MPG
                78/PF - Blake Griffin (BKN): 4 PPG, 5 RPG (23 FG%, 7 3PT%), 20 MPG

                Here is where I strongly disagree with you on principal.


                You can't tell me that Christian Wood who has never been on a winning team and still is not on a good team and Saddiq Bey (same) are underrated.


                You have to adjust for winning.


                If Rockets traded Christian Wood for Kristaps Porzingis tomorrow Kristaps numbers is looking a whole lot better than they currently do.


                If you move Bey off of Detroit onto the Lakers he is probably not playing better than Kendrick Nunn or THT would.


                Also watch some Nets games. Actually even watch Nets vs Pistons. Blake Griffin is currently better than Saddiq Bey.

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                • vannwolfhawk
                  MVP
                  • Jun 2009
                  • 3412

                  #83
                  Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                  Originally posted by dwayne12345
                  Here is where I strongly disagree with you on principal.


                  You can't tell me that Christian Wood who has never been on a winning team and still is not on a good team and Saddiq Bey (same) are underrated.


                  You have to adjust for winning.


                  If Rockets traded Christian Wood for Kristaps Porzingis tomorrow Kristaps numbers is looking a whole lot better than they currently do.


                  If you move Bey off of Detroit onto the Lakers he is probably not playing better than Kendrick Nunn or THT would.


                  Also watch some Nets games. Actually even watch Nets vs Pistons. Blake Griffin is currently better than Saddiq Bey.
                  I’m going to have to disagree here. Although I do agree that if you swapped some players on different teams, numbers would vary. I’m not high on Christian Wood but S. bey is solid. And Blake is better? Maybe 5 years ago. Lmao I think you rate on player not team he is on and his numbers are inflated. I think that’s another reason you scout them because there is a big difference between players that numbers could be the same but it’s being accomplished in different ways. That needs to be accounted for. I see wood get a lot of easy baskets. I see bey on the inside and out as well as defense. Big difference…
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                  • vannwolfhawk
                    MVP
                    • Jun 2009
                    • 3412

                    #84
                    Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                    Anfernee Simons tonight 29 minutes - 17 points

                    Came in at 5 minute mark in 1st and 3rd. Never left the game once when he came in the 2nd half.

                    Dennis smith - DNP

                    They played both Powell and Little at the 4 with the 3 guard lineup. All basically what I was trying to say earlier. Becoming more consistent and snell was back tonight too… and it wasn’t a blowout… lol
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                    • Real2KInsider
                      MVP
                      • Dec 2003
                      • 4658

                      #85
                      Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                      Originally posted by dwayne12345
                      You can't tell me that Christian Wood who has never been on a winning team and still is not on a good team and Saddiq Bey (same) are underrated.
                      ....Bad teams can't have good players...?

                      You have to adjust for winning.
                      Ah yes. Which attribute is that again? And your method of application?


                      If Rockets traded Christian Wood for Kristaps Porzingis tomorrow Kristaps numbers is looking a whole lot better than they currently do.
                      That's pretty unlikely, for a wide variety of reasons. Burden of proof is on you to support your hypothesis.


                      If you move Bey off of Detroit onto the Lakers he is probably not playing better than Kendrick Nunn or THT would.
                      ...Did you intentionally pick two injured players who have yet to even suit up for the Lakers for this example? Bey would immediately slot into the Lakers starting lineup (they started Kent Bazemore & Avery Bradley in the last game).

                      "Player X is on a bad team so none of their skills translate to a winner" is an interesting take, but not a compelling one.

                      Also watch some Nets games. Actually even watch Nets vs Pistons. Blake Griffin is currently better than Saddiq Bey.
                      The Nets are literally one of my local teams. If you think a player shooting 29% from the field and 12% from three is playing well because he scored a ***SEASON-HIGH*** 8 points against the worst team in the Conference... lol is his rating supposed to go UP??? Do tell.
                      Last edited by Real2KInsider; 11-01-2021, 09:28 PM.
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                      • Real2KInsider
                        MVP
                        • Dec 2003
                        • 4658

                        #86
                        Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                        <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/k-D1uEEQWg8" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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                        • dwayne12345
                          MVP
                          • Dec 2010
                          • 1407

                          #87
                          Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                          Originally posted by Real2KInsider
                          ....Bad teams can't have good players...?



                          Ah yes. Which attribute is that again? And your method of application?




                          That's pretty unlikely, for a wide variety of reasons. Burden of proof is on you to support your hypothesis.




                          ...Did you intentionally pick two injured players who have yet to even suit up for the Lakers for this example? Bey would immediately slot into the Lakers starting lineup (they started Kent Bazemore & Avery Bradley in the last game).

                          "Player X is on a bad team so none of their skills translate to a winner" is an interesting take, but not a compelling one.



                          The Nets are literally one of my local teams. If you think a player shooting 29% from the field and 12% from three is playing well because he scored a ***SEASON-HIGH*** 8 points against the worst team in the Conference... lol is his rating supposed to go UP??? Do tell.

                          The video game reason for not inflating guys who put up big numbers on bad teams is because in the video game that will lead to those teams winning way more often than they otherwise should. Put Christian Wood at an 87 and watch the Rockets make the playoffs in your game.



                          My hypothesis is simple: If Christian Wood was truly the equivalent of an 87 in real life the Rockets would not be one of the worst teams in the NBA.


                          That hypothesis goes for Saddiq Bey as well. If he was truly that guy his team wouldn't be worst in the east. A 78-82 rated player is about league average (to above avg) and with a high enough usage most people in this range would likely put up similar numbers to these guys.


                          But I can't prove that, so let me focus on what I can prove.



                          I looked for someone on the Nets who had comparable advanced stats to Bey, and what I came up with is Patty Mills. Mills has played near the same amount of minutes as Bey so it's a better comp than Blake who literally does nothing that shows up on the stat sheet anymore and misses a lot of games.


                          Patty Mills advanced offensive stats are way better than Saddiq Bey this season. The only important stats Bey has on him is Usage and Def Box +/- (both guys Def Box +/- are subpar). https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_...stats-advanced
                          Last edited by dwayne12345; 11-02-2021, 08:45 PM.

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                          • vannwolfhawk
                            MVP
                            • Jun 2009
                            • 3412

                            #88
                            Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                            Originally posted by dwayne12345
                            The video game reason for not inflating guys who put up big numbers on bad teams is because in the video game that will lead to those teams winning way more often than they otherwise should. Put Christian Wood at an 87 and watch the Rockets make the playoffs in your game.



                            My hypothesis is simple: If Christian Wood was truly the equivalent of an 87 in real life the Rockets would not be one of the worst teams in the NBA.


                            That hypothesis goes for Saddiq Bey as well. If he was truly that guy his team wouldn't be worst in the east. A 78-82 rated player is about league average (to above avg) and with a high enough usage most people in this range would likely put up similar numbers to these guys.


                            But I can't prove that, so let me focus on what I can prove.



                            I looked for someone on the Nets who had comparable advanced stats to Bey, and what I came up with is Patty Mills. Mills has played near the same amount of minutes as Bey so it's a better comp than Blake who literally does nothing that shows up on the stat sheet anymore and misses a lot of games.


                            Patty Mills advanced offensive stats are way better than Saddiq Bey this season. The only important stats Bey has on him is Usage and Def Box +/- (both guys Def Box +/- are subpar). https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_...stats-advanced
                            Now this I agree with. Neither are 87 players. I was thinking 81-82 tops (no clue what 2k had them at), but I’m not into overalls but I get that overalls factor into rotations and in sim maybe teams winning more games than they should?
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                            • jeebs9
                              Fear is the Unknown
                              • Oct 2008
                              • 47568

                              #89
                              Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                              Originally posted by dwayne12345
                              The video game reason for not inflating guys who put up big numbers on bad teams is because in the video game that will lead to those teams winning way more often than they otherwise should. Put Christian Wood at an 87 and watch the Rockets make the playoffs in your game.



                              My hypothesis is simple: If Christian Wood was truly the equivalent of an 87 in real life the Rockets would not be one of the worst teams in the NBA.


                              That hypothesis goes for Saddiq Bey as well. If he was truly that guy his team wouldn't be worst in the east. A 78-82 rated player is about league average (to above avg) and with a high enough usage most people in this range would likely put up similar numbers to these guys.


                              But I can't prove that, so let me focus on what I can prove.



                              I looked for someone on the Nets who had comparable advanced stats to Bey, and what I came up with is Patty Mills. Mills has played near the same amount of minutes as Bey so it's a better comp than Blake who literally does nothing that shows up on the stat sheet anymore and misses a lot of games.


                              Patty Mills advanced offensive stats are way better than Saddiq Bey this season. The only important stats Bey has on him is Usage and Def Box +/- (both guys Def Box +/- are subpar). https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_...stats-advanced
                              Originally posted by vannwolfhawk
                              Now this I agree with. Neither are 87 players. I was thinking 81-82 tops (no clue what 2k had them at), but I’m not into overalls but I get that overalls factor into rotations and in sim maybe teams winning more games than they should?
                              I've never been crazy about the way they rate players in bad teams. That's why you don't have a chance when you play vs good team. I don't know. That's me.

                              Players that come to mind is Brandon Ingram.
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                              • dwayne12345
                                MVP
                                • Dec 2010
                                • 1407

                                #90
                                Re: NBA 2K Rating Stock Watch!

                                Yea man - Brandon Ingram can score points if you have him taking 20 shots a game, but my God the Defensive +/- has never been even 0.0 and this year he's under negative 1. Just terrible. For reference, last year Steph Curry had a Defensive +/- of 0.0 through 63 games.


                                Whenever I see a guy putting up big scoring numbers on losing teams I go straight to that Def +/- stat. It is very telling. Bradley Beal is another culprit. HUGE offensive numbers, never has he had a positive Def +/- in his career.


                                Oh and note from the video. 100% agree on Miles Bridges as M.I.P. I think he's had this talent for years, but the coach just refused to up his Usage. Glad to see him taking over with Ball.

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