Analysis of "Player Potential"

[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Awesome work - what were the OVL RATING changes year to year?

They're in the Google Document chart. From year to year.

[Rondo To KG]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Just read through this thread and saw that some players had their potential rating fluctuating. I'm guessing that's actually due to the Untapped Potential training camp thing that you can do right at the end of the offseason.

[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I'm working on the chart for the 2nd simulation now. I'm sort of combining different things in this draft to answer different questions. There's gonna be some overlap seeing as there will be 40 players so some will end up on the same team in this go around but I figure I'd do one big simulation and get it done instead of 5 small ones.

The main question I'm looking to answer is "Do certain play styles progress faster than others?" (i.e. a pass first pg progressing faster than a defensive one.) I'll be looking to see what effect the potential attribute has on longevity as well since it seems to be directly connected.

I'll be giving everyone an overall of 60 since that's what the My Player overall usually starts at. As for potential, I'm not sure. I'm probably gonna go with 70 since someone requested we keep the potential ratings between 70/80/90 but I'll toss in one indentical player with 80 potential just to have something to compare to and hopefully see a developing trend. I'll end up dropping the "duplicate" players potential attribute after his potential grade disappears and we'll see how long it takes for him to drop out of the League.

Hopefully someone else could see exactly how height and weight effect a players progression? Also, if reequested I could upload the Draft Class if someone else wants to run a sim with it.

Anyway, I'm going to catch a few Z's right now and I'll get going when I wake up. Here's the chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=0

Anyone let me know if they think that I should change, or include something before I get going becase once I start I'm not stopping lol. Peace, guys.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Just read through this thread and saw that some players had their potential rating fluctuating. I'm guessing that's actually due to the Untapped Potential training camp thing that you can do right at the end of the offseason.

While simming I made sure to leave training camp management to "manual", and never entered any of the training camps.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I'm working on the chart for the 2nd simulation now. I'm sort of combining different things in this draft to answer different questions. There's gonna be some overlap seeing as there will be 40 players so some will end up on the same team in this go around but I figure I'd do one big simulation and get it done instead of 5 small ones.

The main question I'm looking to answer is "Do certain play styles progress faster than others?" (i.e. a pass first pg progressing faster than a defensive one.) I'll be looking to see what effect the potential attribute has on longevity as well since it seems to be directly connected.

I'll be giving everyone an overall of 60 since that's what the My Player overall usually starts at. As for potential, I'm not sure. I'm probably gonna go with 70 since someone requested we keep the potential ratings between 70/80/90 but I'll toss in one indentical player with 80 potential just to have something to compare to and hopefully see a developing trend.

Hopefully someone else could see exactly how height and weight effect a players progression? Also, if reequested I could upload the Draft Class if someone else wants to run a sim with it.

Anyway, I'm going to catch a few Z's right now and I'll get going when I wake up. Here's the chart: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=0

Anyone let me know if they think that I should change, or include something before I get going becase once I start I'm not stopping lol. Peace, guys.

Keep up the work, make a summary post whenever you're done and then I'll finally clean up the 1st post in this thread with all our work

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edit: Can't say with 100% certainty, but it appears that year 7-8 is when players with potential of 75+ (70+?) seem to peak. Also from looking at your original spreadsheet and my second spreadsheet, and both players with 75 potential:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=2

The difference between starting overall rating and peak overall rating was 19 and 25 respectively.

[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

While simming I made sure to leave training camp management to "manual", and never entered any of the training camps.

Same here, I never used any training camps.

edit: Can't say with 100% certainty, but it appears that year 7-8 is when players with potential of 75+ (70+?) seem to peak. Also from looking at your original spreadsheet and my second spreadsheet, and both players with 75 potential.

That sound about right. Say a player comes into the league at 18, and usually they're supposed to hit their primes around 25, 26ish. About 7, or 8 years in.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I have a new 12-man roster setup (only a few minor changes need to be made), and then I can start simming again.

Right now the roster looks like this:

Player 1: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 75
Player 2: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 21, Potential: 75
Player 3: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 23, Potential: 75
Player 4: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 25, Potential: 75
Player 5: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 27, Potential: 75
Player 6: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 29, Potential: 75
Player 7: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 31, Potential: 75
Player 8: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 33, Potential: 75

(So with these first 8 players I'm trying to see how age affects potential)

Player 9: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 67
Player 10: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 69
Player 11: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 71
Player 12: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 73

(With my last SIM we basically saw that at 65 potential a 19 year old player rated 61 overall will only increase to a 67 overall where saw that at 75 potential a 19 year old player rated 61 overall will increase to around 86)

(65 potential essentially takes a benchwarmer and moves them into the realm of role player where as 75 potential takes a benchwarmer and moves them into the realm of star player, hopefully I can find a happy medium between the two (sixth man, starter) with this test).

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After the above two tests I hope to test how potential affects players of the same age but different overall ratings (Will a 61 overall and 71 overall 19 year old player with 75 potential both cap out at round 85 overall?)

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Probably won't start the above tests until later tonight so I can still take into account any suggestions / comments.

[youALREADYknow]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I have a new 12-man roster setup (only a few minor changes need to be made), and then I can start simming again.

Right now the roster looks like this:

Player 1: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 75
Player 2: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 21, Potential: 75
Player 3: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 23, Potential: 75
Player 4: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 25, Potential: 75
Player 5: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 27, Potential: 75
Player 6: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 29, Potential: 75
Player 7: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 31, Potential: 75
Player 8: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 33, Potential: 75

(So with these first 8 players I'm trying to see how age affects potential)

Player 9: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 67
Player 10: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 69
Player 11: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 71
Player 12: 6'5'', 248 lbs, Age: 19, Potential: 73

(With my last SIM we basically saw that at 65 potential a 19 year old player rated 61 overall will only increase to a 67 overall where saw that at 75 potential a 19 year old player rated 61 overall will increase to around 86)

(65 potential essentially takes a benchwarmer and moves them into the realm of role player where as 75 potential takes a benchwarmer and moves them into the realm of star player, hopefully I can find a happy medium between the two (sixth man, starter) with this test).

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After the above two tests I hope to test how potential affects players of the same age but different overall ratings (Will a 61 overall and 71 overall 19 year old player with 75 potential both cap out at round 85 overall?)

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Probably won't start the above tests until later tonight so I can still take into account any suggestions / comments.

Can you please continue to track how the Potential rating itself progresses for all of the above players? This is great work.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I have the above information all in excel I just need to clean it up before posting it.

[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

I have the above information all in excel I just need to clean it up before posting it.

Same here. I'm finishing up the PG bracket. I decided doing it all at once was a little ambitious. There are some SURPRISING results, lol. Very intriguing.

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=3

Simulation 3 data is on google docs, the whole spreadsheet is getting messy though so I'm going to reorganize all of the tabs when I get a chance...

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The data for the first 8 players is only partially useful right now (for those players I changed player age), what I need to do now is to check and see if a player starting at an overall rating of 71 with 75 potential peaks at same overall rating as a player starting at 61 overall with 75 potential.

The data on "Preston Anthony" is pretty interesting, more on this later (I think it's about time I summarize the results from the 3 simulations I have run).

[Synchromesh]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

So for a 19 year old player with a base rating of 60/61 this is the rough potential scale (edit: Ignore scale for now) I have:

Potential 25-65: Progress 4-6 pts (role player)
Potential 67-71: Progress 12-16 pts (sixth man, average starter)
Potential: 73-99: Progress 21-28 pts (star, fringe superstar)

Among the "randomness" that was programmed into the game the fluctuation in progress will depend a bit on player height and minutes played.

I need to note however that I can't say "use this scale" at this point in time.

I need to see whether the scale holds true when I change the starting overall rating of a player (or if we're really just dealing with a overall rating cap that is linked to the potential rating).

It looks like I also need to try simming with player potential at 66 and 72 to see what overall ratings these inbetween values lead to...

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- Player weight has minimal effect (little to none) on player progression.

- Player height appears as if it DOES affect player progression. The higher a player's potential the larger the difference in their peak overall ratings due to difference in height.

Example:
Two identical players except for height, one 5'3'' the other 7'6'' with a potential rating of 62 will likely experience a small difference in peak overall ratings (1-2 pts). In the same scenario except for with both players at 99 potential the difference in peak overall ratings will be higher, and likely somewhere in the range of (2-6 pts).

- Minutes played DOES affect player progression. A player who plays 3 times as many minutes as an identical player may end up with a peak overall rating 6 points above the player who played fewer minutes. At lower potentials (this was only tested at 99 potential) the difference in peak overall ratings due to minutes played would likely be smaller...

[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Great work, Synchromesh. Here's my simulation chart where I tested whether or not different playstyles progressed faster than others. Still not sure, but it seems as if it maybe hold a little weight to it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=0

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Some things I've noticed.

— PG SEVEN, who I stared off with 70 potential instead of 60 but kept identical to PG SIX in every way didn't really break out until about 6 years in right around the prime of his career. Strangely enough, when I dropped his potential attribute to 25 he had an extremely slow descent and really maintained his overall. Why? I'm not sure. I was almost certain that the potential attribute played a definite role in longevity from the "For those of you who like to go deeper in your assoc." thread. Not so much, anymore. I'm thinking maybe you have to drop it before the potential grade disappears.

— I'm not entirely sure, (seems like I have more questions than answers after this sim, lol) but have you noticed players decreasing faster if their potential is lower than their overall?

— I've noticed that players will almost always retire before their overall is equal to/lower than the base overall. (Except for special circumstances, like being a 26 year old rookie.)
Now the question is where do we go from here with the potential simulations? We should organize a list of what we want to find out so there's some sort of central database we can refer back to, and keep things organized.

ALSO Make sure to mouse-over the cells with the yellow/orange tips on the top right. They have editors notes about potential grades/ratings after the season.

[Jukeman]

Any analyze on how the individual attributes progress?

Could become useful when creating draft classes

Example

Does the skill base attributes like shooting, rebounding progress more than intangible attributes like AwR, consistency and etc? How about physical attributes?


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[Hold My Own]

Re: Analysis of "Player Potential"

Any analyze on how the individual attributes progress?

Could become useful when creating draft classes

Example

Does the skill base attributes like shooting, rebounding progress more than intangible attributes like AwR, consistency and etc? How about physical attributes?

Sent from my HumancentiPad using Tapatalk

I was thinking of tracking it, but I wasn't sure how I would graph it. It'd be a hell of a chart, that's for sure lol. I thought about tracking the actual grades (Perimeter Defense = B+ as opposed to like On-Ball Defense Attribute) If you needed the information, I'd be willing to help you out and simulate something tonight if you're a roster maker or something. If you were just curious, I'll probably get to it tomorrow or something.

You want anything specific before I sim it? And honestly, a tiny part of player developement is just random.

Position? Starting Overall? Potential? Playstyle? (It seems as if different playstyles progress at different rates. i.e. Defensive PGs seemingly get a bigger boost earlier on but obviously have less potential unless you send them to training camp.)